Company Guide Petronas Gas - alliancedbs.com.my Fo… · Page 2 Company Guide Petronas Gas WHAT’S...
Transcript of Company Guide Petronas Gas - alliancedbs.com.my Fo… · Page 2 Company Guide Petronas Gas WHAT’S...
Refer to important disclosures at the end of this report ed: JS / sa: BC
HOLDHOLDHOLDHOLD Last Traded PriceLast Traded PriceLast Traded PriceLast Traded Price (((( 23 Feb 201723 Feb 201723 Feb 201723 Feb 2017)))): : : : RM20.58 (KLCIKLCIKLCIKLCI : : : : 1,704.48) Price Target Price Target Price Target Price Target 12121212----mthmthmthmth:::: RM21.00 (2% upside) (Prev RM21.50) Shariah Compliant:Shariah Compliant:Shariah Compliant:Shariah Compliant: Yes
Where we differWhere we differWhere we differWhere we differ:::: Slightly lower earnings growth Analyst QUAH He Wei, CFA +603 2604 3966 [email protected]
What’s New • 4Q16 results met expectations
• Declared 4th interim DPS of 19 sen
• Cut FY17-18F earnings by 4%/3% on weaker
margins
• Maintain HOLD but revise TP to RM21.00
Price Relative
Forecasts and Valuation FY FY FY FY DecDecDecDec ((((RMRMRMRM m) m) m) m) 2015201520152015AAAA 2016201620162016AAAA 2017201720172017FFFF 2018201820182018FFFF
Revenue 4,456 4,561 4,673 5,411 EBITDA 2,662 3,086 3,166 3,651 Pre-tax Profit 2,002 2,107 2,197 2,550 Net Profit 1,987 1,739 1,715 1,905 Net Pft (Pre Ex.) 1,781 1,747 1,715 1,905 Net Pft Gth (Pre-ex) (%) 2.9 (1.9) (1.8) 11.1 EPS (sen) 100 87.9 86.7 96.3 EPS Pre Ex. (sen) 90.0 88.3 86.7 96.3 EPS Gth Pre Ex (%) 3 (2) (2) 11 Diluted EPS (sen) 100 87.9 86.7 96.3 Net DPS (sen) 60.0 62.0 60.0 70.0 BV Per Share (sen) 578 605 637 664 PE (X) 20.5 23.4 23.7 21.4 PE Pre Ex. (X) 22.9 23.3 23.7 21.4 P/Cash Flow (X) 14.3 14.7 14.2 13.7 EV/EBITDA (X) 15.3 13.4 13.1 11.5 Net Div Yield (%) 2.9 3.0 2.9 3.4 P/Book Value (X) 3.6 3.4 3.2 3.1 Net Debt/Equity (X) CASH 0.0 0.0 0.1 ROAE (%) 18.1 14.9 14.0 14.8 Earnings Rev (%):Earnings Rev (%):Earnings Rev (%):Earnings Rev (%): (4) (3) Consensus EPS Consensus EPS Consensus EPS Consensus EPS (sensensensen):::: 88.3 90.5 97.9 Other Broker Recs:Other Broker Recs:Other Broker Recs:Other Broker Recs: B: 1 S: 4 H: 8
Source of all data on this page: Company, AllianceDBS, Bloomberg Finance L.P
No catalysts in sight Subdued growth outlook, maintain HOLDSubdued growth outlook, maintain HOLDSubdued growth outlook, maintain HOLDSubdued growth outlook, maintain HOLD. Petronas Gas (PTG)’s earnings prospects are likely to remain tepid in view of the potentially weaker gas demand outlook. Given that ~90% of PTG’s earnings is derived from its gas processing, transportation and regasification businesses, potentially weaker gas consumption does not bode well for its earnings growth although its income stream remains resilient, underpinned by long-term agreements with PETRONAS. Lower gas consumption with higher prices?Lower gas consumption with higher prices?Lower gas consumption with higher prices?Lower gas consumption with higher prices? The ongoing gas subsidy rationalisation is set to raise our local piped gas prices by RM1.50/mmbtu every six months to converge with market prices. While PTG does not bear any fuel and pricing risk given its role as an intermediary, a higher gas price may lead to lesser consumption by end users, which will in turn dampen the long-term outlook for PTG. Also, more coal-fired power plants are expected to come onstream progressively over the next few years, suggesting less incremental gas volume to be processed and transported by PTG. Pengerang rePengerang rePengerang rePengerang re----gas terminal commissioning in FY18.gas terminal commissioning in FY18.gas terminal commissioning in FY18.gas terminal commissioning in FY18. The RM2.7bn Pengerang regasification terminal (65% stake) with annual capacity of 3.5m metric tonnes (MT) is expected to be operational by 2018, implying muted earnings growth in the near term.
Valuation:
We cut our DCF-derived TP to RM21.00 (7% WACC, 2%
terminal growth) after incorporating our earnings revision.
Given PTG’s subdued growth prospects, there is limited share
price upside potential, though we continue to like the
company for its defensive earnings, solid balance sheet and
strong parentage.
Key Risks to Our View:
Asset breakdownsAsset breakdownsAsset breakdownsAsset breakdowns. Operational disruptions of its asset will
negatively affect its earnings.
At A Glance Issued Capital (m shrs) 1,979
Mkt. Cap (RMm/US$m) 40,722 / 9,144
Major Shareholders (%)
Petroliam Nasional Berhad 60.7
Employees Provident Fund 13.4
Kumpulan Wang Persaraan 11.9
Free Float (%) 14.0
3m Avg. Daily Val (US$m) 6.9
ICB IndustryICB IndustryICB IndustryICB Industry : Oil & Gas / Oil & Gas Producers
Malaysia Equity ResearchMalaysia Equity ResearchMalaysia Equity ResearchMalaysia Equity Research 24 Feb 2017
Company Guide
Petronas Gas Version 6 | Bloomberg: PTG MK | Reuters: PGAS.KL Refer to important disclosures at the end of this report
Page 2
Company Guide
Petronas Gas
WHAT’S NEW
Weak margins
4Q16 met e4Q16 met e4Q16 met e4Q16 met expectations:xpectations:xpectations:xpectations: Excluding RM9.1m unrealised forex
loss, 4Q16 core profit came in at RM474m (+12% q-o-q,
+24% y-o-y). . . . This takes FY16 core earnings to RM1.75bn (-
2% y-o-y) which comprises 101% of our FY16 full-year
forecast.
However, 4Q16 earnings was largely boosted by low tax
expense arising from over provision in prior years. On a pretax
profit basis, 4Q16 pretax profit would have dipped 11% q-o-
q and 1% y-o-y. PTG’s business continues to be affected by
high operating costs (repair, maintenance and depreciation)
across its key business divisions.
Steady businessSteady businessSteady businessSteady business: : : : Nevertheless, 4Q16 revenue was steady at
RM1.15bn (flat q-o-q, +2% y-o-y), underpinned by its long-
term agreements with PETRONAS for its gas processing, gas
transportation and regasification businesses which collectively
contributed 75% of 4Q16 revenue.
Higher Higher Higher Higher operating costoperating costoperating costoperating cost. . . . Despite the resilient nature of its
business, PTG’s 4Q16 results experienced higher operating
costs due to higher repair and maintenance expenses as well
as higher depreciation cost. Therefore, 4Q16 gross margin
came in at 42%, compared to 45% in 3Q16.
Consistent dividend payout.Consistent dividend payout.Consistent dividend payout.Consistent dividend payout. PTG declared a fourth interim
DPS of 19 sen in 4Q16, taking FY16 DPS to 62 sen. This
implies 71% payout. Its balance sheet remains healthy with
RM1.76bn cash pile, representing 89 sen cash/share. This
compares against its borrowings of RM2.25bn, of which 52%
is due to finance lease liabilities for its two floating storage
units in Melaka.
Cut FY1Cut FY1Cut FY1Cut FY17777----18F earnings by 18F earnings by 18F earnings by 18F earnings by 4444%/%/%/%/3333%.%.%.%. We nudge down our
FY17-18F earnings forecasts after imputing higher operating
expenses which resulted in weaker margins. Consequently,
our DCF-derived TP is revised to RM21.00. We reiterate our
HOLD recommendation in view of the lack of catalysts in the
near to medium term.
Quarterly / Interim Income Statement (RMm)
FY FY FY FY DecDecDecDec 4Q4Q4Q4Q2015201520152015 3Q3Q3Q3Q2016201620162016 4Q4Q4Q4Q2016201620162016 % chg yoy % chg yoy % chg yoy % chg yoy % chg qoq% chg qoq% chg qoq% chg qoq
Revenue 1,137 1,158 1,154 1.5 (0.3)
Cost of Goods Sold (706) (635) (672) (4.8) 5.9
Gross ProfitGross ProfitGross ProfitGross Profit 431431431431 523523523523 482482482482 11.811.811.811.8 (7.9)(7.9)(7.9)(7.9)
Other Oper. (Exp)/Inc 25.8 20.6 27.3 5.8 32.6
Operating ProfitOperating ProfitOperating ProfitOperating Profit 457457457457 544544544544 509509509509 11.411.411.411.4 (6.4)(6.4)(6.4)(6.4)
Other Non Opg (Exp)/Inc 0.0 0.0 0.0 nm nm
Associates & JV Inc 24.6 26.4 9.35 (62.0) (64.6)
Net Interest (Exp)/Inc (24.3) (22.3) (25.6) (5.5) (15.0)
Exceptional Gain/(Loss) 31.0 (1.7) (9.1) nm (451.9)
PrePrePrePre----tax Profittax Profittax Profittax Profit 488488488488 546546546546 484484484484 (0.9)(0.9)(0.9)(0.9) (11.4)(11.4)(11.4)(11.4)
Tax (77.3) (124) (20.5) (73.4) (83.5)
Minority Interest 3.55 0.59 1.80 (49.5) 203.4
Net ProfitNet ProfitNet ProfitNet Profit 415415415415 423423423423 465465465465 12.212.212.212.2 10.010.010.010.0
Net profit bef Except. 384 424 474 23.6 11.7
EBITDA 685 802 748 9.1 (6.7)
Margins (%)
Gross Margins 37.9 45.2 41.8
Opg Profit Margins 40.2 47.0 44.1
Net Profit Margins 36.5 36.5 40.3
Source of all data: Company, AllianceDBS
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Company Guide
Petronas Gas
CRITICAL DATA POINTS TO WATCH
Earnings Drivers:
LongLongLongLong----term earnings visibilityterm earnings visibilityterm earnings visibilityterm earnings visibility. PTG’s 20-year agreement with
PETRONAS for the Gas Processing Agreement and Gas
Transportation Agreement will last until 2033. There will be a
revision every five years on the terms and this usually results in
an upward revision. There is also a 20-year regasification
agreement with PETRONAS regarding its regas terminal in
Sungai Udang. Essentially, PTG is a gas infrastructure company
which is remunerated based on its availability and operational
efficiency. The fee structure provides a relatively stable recurring
income base to the group, thanks to its enviable monopoly in
gas processing and gas transportation.
Higher gas consumption is critical for earnings growth.Higher gas consumption is critical for earnings growth.Higher gas consumption is critical for earnings growth.Higher gas consumption is critical for earnings growth. While
the rates have been fixed, PTG could benefit from higher gas
consumption. However, the relatively weaker economic outlook
in Malaysia may translate into poorer gas volume for its
processing and transportation arm. While PTG does not bear
any fuel and pricing risk given its role as an intermediary, higher
gas price due to the government’s subsidy rationalisation may
lead to lesser consumption by end users, which will in turn
dampen the long-term outlook for PTG. Also, more coal-fired
power plants are expected to come onstream over the next few
years, suggesting less incremental gas volume to be processed
and transported by PTG.
All eyes on Pengerang regasification terminalAll eyes on Pengerang regasification terminalAll eyes on Pengerang regasification terminalAll eyes on Pengerang regasification terminal. The RM2.7bn
Pengerang regasification terminal (65% stake) with 3.5m MT
annual capacity is expected to be operational by 2018. It will
mainly supply to PETRONAS’s Pengerang Integrated Complex,
though 10% of the gas will be supplied to the PGU pipeline.
Therefore, there may be limited earnings growth prospects in
the near term.
Leveraging expertise in utilitiesLeveraging expertise in utilitiesLeveraging expertise in utilitiesLeveraging expertise in utilities. PTG’s utility plants in Kertih and
Gebeng have been supplying power, steam and industrial gases
to various petrochemical plants in the two areas since 1998. Its
60%-owned 300-MW Kimanis power plant has been fully
operational since 4Q14. Given its track record, PTG could have a
more active role in the Pengerang petrochemical hub, apart
from the regasification terminal which is under construction.
Feedgas processed (mmscfd)
Sales gas transported (mmscfd)
Gas processing margin (%)
Gas transportation margin (%)
Source: Company, AllianceDBS
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Company Guide
Petronas Gas
Balance Sheet:
Cash flow generation has always been strong, given its business
model, resulting in a net cash position. While capex
requirements may stay high over the next two years due to the
construction of the Pengerang regas terminal, PTG is expected
to maintain its net cash position.
Share Price Drivers:
Earnings growthEarnings growthEarnings growthEarnings growth. We believe gradual but steady earnings
growth will drive PTG’s share price performance. As PTG's
earnings will not be affected by gas price volatility as it charges
a fixed fee based on the volume that passes through its PGU
pipeline and regas terminals, strong gas demand is critical for its
earnings growth.
HigherHigherHigherHigher----thanthanthanthan----expected dividend payoutexpected dividend payoutexpected dividend payoutexpected dividend payout. While PTG has been
paying regular dividends, its yield of ~2.9% is not attractive.
Nevertheless, PTG has the capacity to raise its dividend payout
given the strong cash flow generation. We have assumed ~70%
payout, though it used to pay above 75% in the past.
Key Risks:
Changes to subsidised gas cost in Malaysia Changes to subsidised gas cost in Malaysia Changes to subsidised gas cost in Malaysia Changes to subsidised gas cost in Malaysia
PTG's earnings will not be affected by changes to gas pricing,
but an increase in subsidised gas price may dampen gas
consumption growth.
Delays in construction of new regas and power plants Delays in construction of new regas and power plants Delays in construction of new regas and power plants Delays in construction of new regas and power plants
Later-than-expected commissioning of new plants will affect
PTG’s growth prospects.
Company Background
The gas-processing and transmission arm of PETRONAS which
processes PETRONAS’ natural gas piped from offshore fields via
six gas processing plants in Terengganu and then transports
the processed gas via Peninsular Gas Utilisation (PGU) pipeline
network to PETRONAS’ customers in Malaysia and Singapore.
It also has a regasification terminal in Sungai Udang, Melaka
which was commissioned in 2013.
Leverage & Asset Turnover (x)
Capital Expenditure
ROE (%)
Forward PE Band (x)
PB Band (x)
Source: Company, AllianceDBS
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Company Guide
Petronas Gas
Key Assumptions
FY FY FY FY DecDecDecDec 2014201420142014AAAA 2015201520152015AAAA 2016201620162016AAAA 2017201720172017FFFF 2018201820182018FFFF
Feedgas processed (mmscfd) 2,011 2,046 2,087 2,129 2,172
Sales gas transported (mmscfd) 2,322 2,425 2,476 2,527 2,580
Gas processing margin (%) 47.4 45.8 41.6 42.0 42.8
Gas transportation margin (%) 78.2 76.8 74.8 75.0 75.2
Segmental Breakdown
FY FY FY FY DecDecDecDec 2014201420142014AAAA 2015201520152015AAAA 2016201620162016AAAA 2017201720172017FFFF 2018201820182018FFFF Revenues (RMm)
Gas processing 1,480 1,534 1,557 1,523 1,527
Gas transportation 1,287 1,312 1,304 1,384 1,418
Utilities 1,009 974 1,069 1,123 1,179
Regasification 616 637 631 644 1,288
TotalTotalTotalTotal 4,3924,3924,3924,392 4,4564,4564,4564,456 4,5614,5614,5614,561 4,6734,6734,6734,673 5,4115,4115,4115,411
Gross Profit (RMm) Gas processing 702 702 648 640 654
Gas transportation 1,007 1,007 975 1,038 1,065
Utilities 196 196 156 193 204
Regasification 308 308 286 309 618
TotalTotalTotalTotal 2,2122,2122,2122,212 2,2122,2122,2122,212 2,0662,0662,0662,066 2,1792,1792,1792,179 2,5422,5422,5422,542
Gross Profit Margins (%) Gas processing 47.4 45.8 41.6 42.0 42.8
Gas transportation 78.2 76.8 74.8 75.0 75.2
Utilities 19.4 20.1 14.6 17.2 17.3
Regasification 50.0 48.3 45.4 48.0 48.0
TotalTotalTotalTotal 50.450.450.450.4 49.649.649.649.6 45.345.345.345.3 46.646.646.646.6 47.047.047.047.0
Income Statement (RMm)
FY FY FY FY DecDecDecDec 2014201420142014AAAA 2015201520152015AAAA 2016201620162016AAAA 2017201720172017FFFF 2018201820182018FFFF Revenue 4,392 4,456 4,561 4,673 5,411
Cost of Goods Sold (2,180) (2,317) (2,495) (2,494) (2,869)
Gross ProfitGross ProfitGross ProfitGross Profit 2,2122,2122,2122,212 2,1392,1392,1392,139 2,0662,0662,0662,066 2,1792,1792,1792,179 2,5422,5422,5422,542
Other Opng (Exp)/Inc (28.9) (329) 79.0 75.9 63.2
Operating ProfitOperating ProfitOperating ProfitOperating Profit 2,1832,1832,1832,183 1,8101,8101,8101,810 2,1452,1452,1452,145 2,2552,2552,2552,255 2,6052,6052,6052,605 Other Non Opg (Exp)/Inc 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Associates & JV Inc 134 75.2 63.6 70.0 72.2
Net Interest (Exp)/Inc (76.3) (90.1) (93.9) (128) (128)
Exceptional Gain/(Loss) 113 207 (7.8) 0.0 0.0
PrePrePrePre----tax Profittax Profittax Profittax Profit 2,3542,3542,3542,354 2,0022,0022,0022,002 2,1072,1072,1072,107 2,1972,1972,1972,197 2,5502,5502,5502,550 Tax (512) (16.2) (370) (483) (561)
Minority Interest 1.11 1.58 2.75 1.00 (84.0)
Preference Dividend 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Net ProfitNet ProfitNet ProfitNet Profit 1,8431,8431,8431,843 1,9871,9871,9871,987 1,7391,7391,7391,739 1,7151,7151,7151,715 1,9051,9051,9051,905 Net Profit before Except. 1,730 1,781 1,747 1,715 1,905
EBITDA 3,105 2,662 3,086 3,166 3,651
Growth
Revenue Gth (%) 12.8 1.5 2.4 2.5 15.8
EBITDA Gth (%) 16.3 (14.3) 15.9 2.6 15.3
Opg Profit Gth (%) 14.7 (17.1) 18.5 5.1 15.5
Net Profit Gth (Pre-ex) (%) 19.1 2.9 (1.9) (1.8) 11.1
Margins & Ratio
Gross Margins (%) 50.4 48.0 45.3 46.6 47.0
Opg Profit Margin (%) 49.7 40.6 47.0 48.3 48.1
Net Profit Margin (%) 42.0 44.6 38.1 36.7 35.2
ROAE (%) 17.7 18.1 14.9 14.0 14.8
ROA (%) 13.9 14.4 11.2 10.1 10.6
ROCE (%) 13.9 13.8 12.1 11.1 12.3
Div Payout Ratio (%) 59.0 59.7 70.5 69.2 72.7
Net Interest Cover (x) 28.6 20.1 22.8 17.6 20.4
Source: Company, AllianceDBS
Assuming steady growth
Assume contribution from Pengerang regas terminal in FY18
Page 6
Company Guide
Petronas Gas
Quarterly / Interim Income Statement (RMm)
FY FY FY FY DecDecDecDec 4Q4Q4Q4Q2015201520152015 1Q1Q1Q1Q2016201620162016 2Q2Q2Q2Q2016201620162016 3Q3Q3Q3Q2016201620162016 4Q4Q4Q4Q2016201620162016 Revenue 1,137 1,131 1,119 1,158 1,154
Cost of Goods Sold (706) (551) (638) (635) (672)
Gross ProfitGross ProfitGross ProfitGross Profit 431431431431 580580580580 481481481481 523523523523 482482482482 Other Oper. (Exp)/Inc 25.8 7.34 23.8 20.6 27.3
Operating ProfitOperating ProfitOperating ProfitOperating Profit 457457457457 587587587587 505505505505 544544544544 509509509509 Other Non Opg (Exp)/Inc 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Associates & JV Inc 24.6 10.5 17.3 26.4 9.35
Net Interest (Exp)/Inc (24.3) (23.8) (22.4) (22.3) (25.6)
Exceptional Gain/(Loss) 31.0 5.01 (2.1) (1.7) (9.1)
PrePrePrePre----tax Profittax Profittax Profittax Profit 488488488488 579579579579 498498498498 546546546546 484484484484 Tax (77.3) (131) (94.3) (124) (20.5)
Minority Interest 3.55 (0.1) 0.31 0.59 1.80
Net ProfitNet ProfitNet ProfitNet Profit 415415415415 447447447447 404404404404 423423423423 465465465465 Net profit bef Except. 384 442 406 424 474
EBITDA 685 802 735 802 748
Growth
Revenue Gth (%) 0.2 (0.5) (1.0) 3.5 (0.3)
EBITDA Gth (%) (13.5) 17.0 (8.4) 9.1 (6.7)
Opg Profit Gth (%) (20.8) 28.5 (14.0) 7.7 (6.4)
Net Profit Gth (Pre-ex) (%) (17.7) 15.3 (8.2) 4.6 11.7
Margins
Gross Margins (%) 37.9 51.3 43.0 45.2 41.8
Opg Profit Margins (%) 40.2 51.9 45.1 47.0 44.1
Net Profit Margins (%) 36.5 39.6 36.1 36.5 40.3 Balance Sheet (RMm)
FY FY FY FY DecDecDecDec 2014201420142014AAAA 2015201520152015AAAA 2016201620162016AAAA 2017201720172017FFFF 2018201820182018FFFF Net Fixed Assets 10,858 11,324 12,808 13,921 14,902
Invts in Associates & JVs 601 676 736 806 878
Other LT Assets 511 461 461 461 461
Cash & ST Invts 638 1,231 1,763 1,613 1,253
Inventory 43.4 46.4 68.5 49.8 57.1
Debtors 609 644 712 676 782
Other Current Assets 0.0 0.0 5.87 5.87 5.87
Total AssetsTotal AssetsTotal AssetsTotal Assets 13,26013,26013,26013,260 14,38214,38214,38214,382 16,55416,55416,55416,554 17,53217,53217,53217,532 18,33918,33918,33918,339
ST Debt
21.0 28.7 32.6 32.6 32.6
Creditor 668 797 1,006 855 980
Other Current Liab 99.9 2.83 0.0 483 561
LT Debt 861 1,030 2,217 2,217 2,217
Other LT Liabilities 1,041 929 1,137 1,137 1,137
Shareholder’s Equity 10,534 11,439 11,967 12,614 13,134
Minority Interests 35.1 156 194 193 277
Total Cap. & Liab.Total Cap. & Liab.Total Cap. & Liab.Total Cap. & Liab. 13,26013,26013,26013,260 14,38214,38214,38214,382 16,55416,55416,55416,554 17,53217,53217,53217,532 18,33918,33918,33918,339
Non-Cash Wkg. Capital (116) (109) (220) (607) (696)
Net Cash/(Debt) (245) 173 (486) (637) (997)
Debtors Turn (avg days) 54.9 51.3 54.3 54.2 49.2
Creditors Turn (avg days) 220.5 173.6 203.3 205.5 176.8
Inventory Turn (avg days) 10.7 10.6 12.9 13.1 10.3
Asset Turnover (x) 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3
Current Ratio (x) 1.6 2.3 2.5 1.7 1.3
Quick Ratio (x) 1.6 2.3 2.4 1.7 1.3
Net Debt/Equity (X) 0.0 CASH 0.0 0.0 0.1
Net Debt/Equity ex MI (X) 0.0 CASH 0.0 0.1 0.1
Capex to Debt (%) 142.1 110.5 86.9 86.9 86.9
Z-Score (X) 10.8 10.3 9.1 9.1 8.7
Source: Company, AllianceDBS
Steady earnings stream
Solid balance sheet
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Company Guide
Petronas Gas
Cash Flow Statement (RMm)
FY FY FY FY DecDecDecDec 2014201420142014AAAA 2015201520152015AAAA 2016201620162016AAAA 2017201720172017FFFF 2018201820182018FFFF Pre-Tax Profit 2,354 2,002 2,107 2,197 2,550
Dep. & Amort. 787 777 877 841 974
Tax Paid (376) (169) (122) 0.0 (483)
Assoc. & JV Inc/(loss) (134) (75.2) (63.6) (70.0) (72.2)
Chg in Wkg.Cap. (248) 89.7 114 (96.2) 11.3
Other Operating CF 194 221 (151) 0.0 0.0
Net Operating CFNet Operating CFNet Operating CFNet Operating CF 2,5772,5772,5772,577 2,8462,8462,8462,846 2,7612,7612,7612,761 2,8722,8722,8722,872 2,9792,9792,9792,979 Capital Exp.(net) (1,254) (1,169) (1,955) (1,955) (1,955)
Other Invts.(net) 15.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Invts in Assoc. & JV 0.0 0.0 (20.6) 0.0 0.0
Div from Assoc & JV 27.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Other Investing CF 2.37 81.6 (14.9) 0.0 0.0
Net Investing CFNet Investing CFNet Investing CFNet Investing CF (1,210)(1,210)(1,210)(1,210) (1,088)(1,088)(1,088)(1,088) (1,990)(1,990)(1,990)(1,990) (1,955)(1,955)(1,955)(1,955) (1,955)(1,955)(1,955)(1,955) Div Paid (1,583) (1,148) (1,187) (1,068) (1,385)
Chg in Gross Debt 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Capital Issues 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Other Financing CF (58.4) (9.8) 948 0.0 0.0
Net Financing CFNet Financing CFNet Financing CFNet Financing CF (1,641)(1,641)(1,641)(1,641) (1,158)(1,158)(1,158)(1,158) (239)(239)(239)(239) (1,068)(1,068)(1,068)(1,068) (1,385)(1,385)(1,385)(1,385)
Currency Adjustments 0.0 (7.3) 0.38 0.0 0.0
Chg in Cash (274) 593 532 (150) (360)
Opg CFPS (sen) 143 139 134 150 150
Free CFPS (sen) 66.8 84.7 40.8 46.4 51.8
Source: Company, AllianceDBS
Target Price & Ratings History
Source: AllianceDBS
Analyst: QUAH He Wei, CFA
Strong cash flow generation
Page 8
Company Guide
Petronas Gas
DISCLOSURE
Stock rating definitions STRONG BUY - > 20% total return over the next 3 months, with identifiable share price catalysts within this time frame BUY - > 15% total return over the next 12 months for small caps, >10% for large caps HOLD - -10% to +15% total return over the next 12 months for small caps, -10% to +10% for large caps FULLY VALUED - negative total return > -10% over the next 12 months SELL - negative total return of > -20% over the next 3 months, with identifiable catalysts within this time frame Commonly used abbreviations Adex = advertising expenditure EPS = earnings per share PBT = profit before tax bn = billion EV = enterprise value P/B = price / book ratio BV = book value FCF = free cash flow P/E = price / earnings ratio CF = cash flow FV = fair value PEG = P/E ratio to growth ratio CAGR = compounded annual growth rate FY = financial year q-o-q = quarter-on-quarter Capex = capital expenditure m = million RM = Ringgit CY = calendar year M-o-m = month-on-month ROA = return on assets Div yld = dividend yield NAV = net assets value ROE = return on equity DCF = discounted cash flow NM = not meaningful TP = target price DDM = dividend discount model NTA = net tangible assets trn = trillion DPS = dividend per share NR = not rated WACC = weighted average cost of capital EBIT = earnings before interest & tax p.a. = per annum y-o-y = year-on-year EBITDA = EBIT before depreciation and amortisation PAT = profit after tax YTD = year-to-date
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Company Guide
Petronas Gas
DISCLAIMER
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