Community Wind Pt#2 Market Niche
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Transcript of Community Wind Pt#2 Market Niche
Hudson Valley Community Wind Share etothefourth.com 09/16/2009 1
Greening the Grid with Wind
Part 2 Where is the community wind niche?
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1Wednesday, September 16, 2009
Hudson Valley Community Wind Share etothefourth.com 09/16/2009
US Wind Power is in its infancy. We can make it grow! Here is how.
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Hudson Valley Community Wind Share etothefourth.com 09/16/2009
What are the wind market niches?
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Hudson Valley Community Wind Share etothefourth.com 09/16/2009
Different scales of turbines
20 m (66 ft)
50 m (164 ft)
80 m (262 ft)
typical cell tower
3 story home
Small scale wind
Community scale wind
Utility scale wind
1 to 20kW 50 to 500kW 500kW to 1+MW
~ $30,000
turbine cost ranges
~ $1 million
10 m (33 ft)
45 m (147 ft)
10 m (33 ft)
Hu
b H
eig
ht
of
Tu
rbin
e (
to s
cale
)
Familiar heights
<20kW
<500kW
>1MW
uses 880kWh/month
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4Wednesday, September 16, 2009
Hudson Valley Community Wind Share etothefourth.com 09/16/2009
20 m (66 ft)
50 m (164 ft)
80 m (262 ft)
typical cell tower
3 story home
Small scale wind
Community scale wind
Utility scale wind
1 to 20kW 50 to 500kW 500kW to 1+MW
~ $30,000
turbine cost ranges
~ $1 million
10 m (33 ft)
45 m (147 ft)
10 m (33 ft)
Hu
b H
eig
ht
of
Tu
rbin
e (
to s
cale
)
Familiar heights
Turbines cost ranges
~$30,000+ 1 to 20kW
$300-400,000 50 to 500 kW
~$1 million+ 500kW to 1+MW
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Hudson Valley Community Wind Share etothefourth.com 09/16/2009
Is there a community wind market niche?
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Hudson Valley Community Wind Share etothefourth.com 09/16/2009
Micro-to-small scale niche
20 m (66 ft)
50 m (164 ft)
80 m (262 ft)
typical cell tower
3 story home
Small scale wind
Community scale wind
Utility scale wind
1 to 20kW 50 to 500kW 500kW to 1+MW
~ $30,000
turbine cost ranges
~ $1 million
10 m (33 ft)
45 m (147 ft)
10 m (33 ft)
Hu
b H
eig
ht
of
Tu
rbin
e (
to s
cale
)
Familiar heights
Individuals can build small scale wind power.
~$30,000+ 1 to 20kW
$300-400,000 50 to 500 kW
~$1 million+ 500kW to 1+MW
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Hudson Valley Community Wind Share etothefourth.com 09/16/2009
20 m (66 ft)
50 m (164 ft)
80 m (262 ft)
typical cell tower
3 story home
Small scale wind
Community scale wind
Utility scale wind
1 to 20kW 50 to 500kW 500kW to 1+MW
~ $30,000
turbine cost ranges
~ $1 million
10 m (33 ft)
45 m (147 ft)
10 m (33 ft)
Hu
b H
eig
ht
of
Tu
rbin
e (
to s
cale
)
Familiar heights
Utility scale market
Utility scale companies are building large wind farms in the this end of the market.
~$30,000+ 1 to 20kW
$300-400,000 50 to 500 kW
~$1 million+500kW to 1+MW
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8Wednesday, September 16, 2009
Hudson Valley Community Wind Share etothefourth.com 09/16/2009
To tie into grid or not
20 m
(66 ft)
50 m (164 ft)
80 m (262 ft)
Small wind may or may not tie into the grid.
Small scale wind
Utility scale wind
1 to 20kW 50 to 500kW
~ $30,000
turbine cost ranges
~ $1 million
10 m (33 ft)
Hu
b H
eig
ht
of
Tu
rbin
e (
to s
cale
)
500kW to 1+MW
Utilty scale wind can afford to build power lines to reach its often remote sites
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9Wednesday, September 16, 2009
Hudson Valley Community Wind Share etothefourth.com 09/16/2009
Our community wind niche
20 m (66 ft)
50 m (164 ft)
80 m (262 ft)
typical cell tower
3 story home
Small scale wind
Community scale wind
Utility scale wind
1 to 20kW 50 to 500kW 500kW to 1+MW
~ $30,000
turbine cost ranges
~ $1 million
10 m (33 ft)
45 m (147 ft)
10 m (33 ft)
Hu
b H
eig
ht
of
Tu
rbin
e (
to s
cale
)
Familiar heights
In between, a viable market is opening for medium scale generators.
~$30,000+ 1 to 20kW
$300-400,000 50 to 500 kW
~$1 million+500kW to 1+MW
•Too small for big utilities,
•too big for individuals, the community wind niche has enormous potential for generating electricity•close to where we need it
•at lower costs per kWh produced.
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Hudson Valley Community Wind Share etothefourth.com 09/16/2009
So what does community wind need to ramp up big time?
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Hudson Valley Community Wind Share etothefourth.com 09/16/2009
What our wind niche needs 1. Wind!
150 m (500 feet) from nearest tall structure
10 m (30 feet) above highest structure
5.3+ m/s (12mph+) average wind speed at unobstructed hub height
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12 mph (5.4 m/s) or better wind resource 30 feet above nearest disturbance and 500 feet from nearest tall structure.
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Hudson Valley Community Wind Share etothefourth.com 09/16/2009
What our wind niche needs:2. Grid tie-in connections
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20 m
(66 ft)
50 m (164 ft)
80 m (262 ft)
1 to 20kW 50 to 500kW
~ $30,000
turbine cost ranges
~ $1 million
10 m (33 ft)
Hu
b H
eig
ht
of
Tu
rbin
e (
to s
cale
)
500kW to 1+MW
Community wind must tie into a local grid accessible without extensive new power line construction.
Community scale wind
Locations with affordable grid-tie connections
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Hudson Valley Community Wind Share etothefourth.com 09/16/2009
What our wind niche needs:3. Affordable sites!
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Affordable land close to existing grid. 10 ALTERNATIVES TO THE INDIAN POINT ENERGY CENTER
gas-fired combined-cycle plants5 are much more efficientthan older or simple-cycle gas turbines.
NYISO has divided the NYCA into 11 zones, shown inFigure 1-3, to assist in pricing and monitoring load flows onthe transmission system. The key zones for this report arethese:
• H, which includes the northern portion of WestchesterCounty, where Indian Point is located;
• I, the rest of Westchester County;• J, New York City; and• K, Long Island outside of New York City.
In accordance with NYSRC standards, NYISO’s goal isfor the bulk power system to have sufficient capacity thatoutages will be less than 1 day in 10 years. This loss-of-loadexpectation (LOLE) is determined by using statistical de-scriptions of the historical availability of each generator andMonte Carlo calculation techniques to compute the expectednumber of days in a 10-year period when the load could notbe supplied. The LOLE is used in determining how muchadditional generation a given area will require for expectedload growth and is likely to continue to be used if IndianPoint is closed.
In addition to sufficient capacity, diversity of fuels pro-vides another element of system reliability. Excessive de-pendence on one fuel source threatens system reliability ifthat fuel supply encounters shortages. Figure 1-4 displaysthe varied contributions of different fuels to the installedcapacity (in megawatts) of the NYCA. Natural gas and oilrepresent 60 percent of the installed capacity, and coal,nuclear, and hydroelectric power account for 39 percent.New York’s new Renewable Portfolio Standard should im-prove fuel diversity. This standard requires 25 percent ofelectricity to be generated from renewable sources by 2013,compared with 19.5 percent now (mainly hydroelectricity,most notably from Niagara Falls).6
The electrical output (actual kilowatt-hours) generated byeach fuel is not proportional to the generating capacity thatuses that fuel. Gas and oil fuel about 38 percent of the total.Coal, nuclear, and hydro power represents most (61 percent)of the power generated in 2004.
Generator owners in the NYCA operate a diverse mix ofgeneration facilities. Figure 1-5 lists the power that can begenerated in each NYCA zone, by technology, during the
FIGURE 1-1 The New York Control Area high-voltage transmission network. SOURCE: New York Independent System Operator.
5These plants combine a gas turbine (similar to a jet engine) with a steamturbine that uses the waste heat from the gas turbine as its energy source.The latest combined-cycle plants can be up to 60 percent efficient, almosttwice as high as most coal or nuclear plants.
6Renewable resources include solar energy, wind, biofuels, and others.Renewables are appealing for a variety of reasons, especially environmen-tal, but most forms have been expensive relative to fossil and nuclear en-ergy. Some technologies (e.g., wind) are now proving to be competitive,and progress in research and development on others is encouraging, as dis-cussed in Chapters 2 and 3. Hydroelectricity is a form of renewable energy,and New York State already receives an abundant supply from NiagaraFalls and other sites, but it is questionable whether hydropower can be ex-panded significantly.
source: NYSDEC Interactive Maps page source: NYISO (high voltage transmission network)
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Hudson Valley Community Wind Share etothefourth.com 09/16/2009
What our wind niche needs:4. Wind-friendly policies
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Wind-friendly state policies and local codes need to be encouraged.State policy drives utility regulation,
power pricing, and grid connectivity for renewables.
Local codes drive local permit thresholds site and approval process for renewables.
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Hudson Valley Community Wind Share etothefourth.com 09/16/2009
Who is doing community wind already?
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Hudson Valley Community Wind Share etothefourth.com 09/16/2009
Case example #1
wind resource: 5.4 to 7.4 m/s: 6.7 m/s (15 mph) average speed @50 m hub height).
turbine type: Endurance S-250 grid-tie wind turbine (with peak power rating of 5 kilowatts on a 126 foot monopole).
est. install. cost: $_to come_
est. production: 6,000 to 9,000 kwh per year (w/ ave. wind speed.)
site: public forest affiliated with SUNY-ESF nearby in Syracuse installed summer 2009
www.esf.edu/sustainability/action/windturbine.htm
wind resource data: http://firstlook.3tiergroup.com
ESF-Heiberg Memorial Forest, Tully NY
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Hudson Valley Community Wind Share etothefourth.com 09/16/2009
Case example #2
wind resource: 5.6 to 7.9 m/s: 6.8 m/s (15.2 mph) average speed @50 m hub height.
turbine type: Northwind 100 grid-tie wind turbine on a 37 m (121 foot) monopole (with peak power rating of 100 kilowatts at 31 mph).
est. install. cost: $_to come_
est. production: _to come_ (kWh) per year (w/ ave. wind speed.)
site: Woods Hole Research Center, installed summer 2009http://www.whrc.org/pressroom/press_releases/pr-2009-7-07-turbine.htm
N.B.:Background image used on these slides depicts this new WHOI turbine with roof of research center just visible at bottom.
wind resource data: http://firstlook.3tiergroup.com
Woods Hole Research Center, Falmouth MA
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Hudson Valley Community Wind Share etothefourth.com 09/16/2009
Potential sites in our area...with wind and land and grid nearby
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Hudson Valley Community Wind Share etothefourth.com 09/16/2009
Hypothetical site 1
wind resource: 4.4 to 5.9 m/s: 5.2 m/s (11.6 mph) average speed @50 m hub height.
turbine type: NA.
est. install. cost: $_to come_
est. production: _to come_ (kWh) per year (w/ ave. wind speed.)
site: Croton Landing Park, owned by Village of Croton-on-Hudson, NY
www.crotononhudson-ny.gov/
• Wind speeds are promising, if not ideal.
wind resource data: http://firstlook.3tiergroup.com
Croton Landing Park, Croton-on-Hudson
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Hudson Valley Community Wind Share etothefourth.com 09/16/2009
Hypothetical site 2
wind resource: 4.7 to 6.2 m/s: 5.5 m/s (12.3 mph) average speed @50 m hub height.
turbine type: NA.
est. install. cost: $_to come_
est. production: _to come_ (kWh) per year (w/ ave. wind speed.)
site: State Park Land, owned by New York State
www.dec.ny.gov/outdoor/7804.html
• Wind speeds are better than site 1, even though inland due to higher elevation.
wind resource data: http://firstlook.3tiergroup.com
FDR State Park, Westchester County NY
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Hudson Valley Community Wind Share etothefourth.com 09/16/2009
Hypothetical sites
wind resource: 5.1 to 6.7 m/s: 5.9 m/s (13.2 mph) average speed @50 m hub height.
turbine type: NA.
est. install. cost: $_to come_
est. production: _to come_ (kWh) per year (w/ ave. wind speed.)
site: State Park Land, owned by New York State
www.dec.ny.gov/outdoor/7804.html
• Wind speeds are better than site 1 & 2, due to higher inland elevation.
wind resource data: http://firstlook.3tiergroup.com
Fahnestock State Park, Putnam County NY
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Hudson Valley Community Wind Share etothefourth.com 09/16/2009
Hypothetical site 4
wind resource: 5.9 to 7.6 m/s: 6.8 m/s (15.2 mph) average speed @50 m hub height.
turbine type: NA.
est. install. cost: $_to come_
est. production: _to come_ (kWh) per year (w/ ave. wind speed.)
site: State State Natural Resource
Management Area, owned by New York State
www.dec.ny.gov/outdoor/7780.html#Rockypoint
• Wind speeds are better than sites 1, 2, & 3, due to LI Sound.
wind resource data: http://firstlook.3tiergroup.com
Rocky Point SNRMA, Brookhaven LI
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Wrap up & Resources
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Hudson Valley Community Wind Share etothefourth.com 09/16/2009
Some thoughts
A good view can indicate a good site for wind. State, county and municipal parks have good views...and happen to have some of the best local wind resources.Is there a partnership we can create?
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Hudson Valley Community Wind Share etothefourth.com 09/16/2009
some more thoughts...Wind is faster higher above ground. speed @ 20m < 50m < 80m Wind resource software usually projects wind speed ranges for: 20 meters (small scale individual), 50 meters (community wind), & 80 meters (utility scale). We’re focussing on 50 meter range (c 150 foot “cell tower height”).
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26Wednesday, September 16, 2009
Hudson Valley Community Wind Share etothefourth.com 09/16/2009
Policy Changes NeededRegulation: Any business or homeowner should be able to
generate electricity, i.e. become a “mini-utility.” Price: Utilities should have to buy that electricity at a good
price for a predictable period.
Connectivity: Utilities should have to connect us to the grid.
These 3 policies work great in Europe.
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Hudson Valley Community Wind Share etothefourth.com 09/16/2009
Private-Public-Partnerships
A Community Wind Power Cooperative needs locations for turbines in order to supply green electricity.A joint effort of the local governments, businesses, non-profits, & residents can work together to help identify good turbine locations.
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Hudson Valley Community Wind Share etothefourth.com 09/16/2009
The Team...so far...Leo Wiegman, mayor of Croton-on-Hudson; author of forthcoming book, “Climate Solutions” and “Build Your Own Wind Power”; Croton residentJohn Whelan, president of Switch Electrical Contractors; Croton residentEdward A. Robin, director, Alliance America (non-profit); engineer; retired IBM and KPMG Peat Marwick Executive; Croton resident;and growing....
To learn more or sign up for updates, visit the Hudson Valley Community Wind Share site:Click on “Community Wind” at http://etothefourth.com
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Hudson Valley Community Wind Share etothefourth.com 09/16/2009
Our Government has made the Case for Community Wind
20% Wind Energy by 2030 report 2008 Wind Technologies Market Report New York Small Wind Guide
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Hudson Valley Community Wind Share etothefourth.com 09/16/2009
Wind Resources (alphabetically)
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2008 Wind Technologies Market Report http://eetd.lbl.gov/EA/EMP/re-pubs.html
American Wind Energy Assoc. Small Wind site www.awea.org/smallwind/
Community Wind 101: A Primer for Policymakers www.ef.org/docs/CommWind_web.pdf
Database of State Incentives for Renewables & Efficiency www.dsireusa.org
New York state wind incentives www.powernaturally.org/Programs/Wind/incentives.asp
National Wind Technology Center www.nrel.gov/wind/nwtc.html
Small Wind discussion group http://tech.groups.yahoo.com/group/small-wind-home/
Smart Grid 101 www.americanprogress.org/issues/2009/02/clean_energy_pipeline.html
Toronto’s Windshare Coop www.windustry.org
USDOE’s Wind Powering America www.windpoweringamerica.gov
USDOE’s Small Wind for Homeowners, Ranchers, and Small Businesses www.windpoweringamerica.gov/small_wind.asp
Wind-Works blog www.wind-works.org/articles/community.htm
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