Community Energy and Emissions Inventory Update · Community Energy and Emissions Inventory Update...

Ener ficiency Consulting

Community Energy and Emissions Inventory Update

Prepared For: Jeremy Valeriote, Sunshine Coast Regional District

Prepared by: Michael Wilson, Enerficiency Consulting

and

Johan Stroman, Heartwood Solutions

August 8, 2013


ii

Table of Contents

Executive Summary.................................................................................................................................... iii

1. Introduction ......................................................................................................................................... 1

2. Energy & Emissions Update ............................................................................................................... 2

2.1 Background .................................................................................................................................. 2 2.2 Update Methodology ..................................................................................................................... 2 2.3 Updated Inventory......................................................................................................................... 3 2.4 Factors Impacting Emissions Between 2007 and 2010 .................................................................. 7 2.5 Changes from CEEP Inventory ..................................................................................................... 7 2.6 Community vs Corporate Emissions .............................................................................................. 8

3. Scenario Analysis ............................................................................................................................... 9

3.1 Model Description ......................................................................................................................... 9 3.2 Assumptions ................................................................................................................................. 9 3.3 Business As Usual Forecast ......................................................................................................... 9 3.4 CIMS Policy Scenarios Analysed ................................................................................................ 10

3.4.1 Federal and Provincial Government Policy .............................................................................. 10 3.4.2 Local Government Policies ..................................................................................................... 11

3.5 Results ....................................................................................................................................... 12

4. Summary and Conclusions .............................................................................................................. 16

Appendices ................................................................................................................................................ 17


iii

Executive Summary

Energy and emissions continue to rise, although more slowly than population growth, driven largely by the transportation sector. Emissions from buildings fell during the period.

The rise in emissions has occurred largely in the unincorporated areas. Overall, incorporated areas saw a slight reduction in emissions.

Total

Buildings

-6.0% -4.0% -2.0% 0.0% 2.0% 4.0% 6.0%

Change in GHG Emissions, 2007 to 2010

Solid Waste

Transportation

-1.0% 0.0% 1.0% 2.0% 3.0% 4.0% 5.0%

Change in GHG Emissions, 2007 to 2010

Unincorporated Areas

Incorporated Areas

Policies related to community density and solid waste reduction have much greater impact than all other policies.

The Top 3 policies, combined with Federal and Provincial efforts, come close to achieving the Deep Green reductions goal.

- 10.0 20.0 30.0

Tonnes CO2e

Annual Emissions Reductions by 2050

Agressive Density

Organics Seperation

Moderate Density

All Other Policies

Landfill Gas Collection

-

50,000

100,000

150,000

200,000

250,000

kT

on

ne

s C

O2

eTop 3 Policy Options Combined

Federal/Provincial Gov't Policy

Top 3 Policies

The Sunshine Coast Community Energy and Emissions Plan (CEEP) was completed in 2009. Energy and greenhouse gas inventories from that plan have been updated to incorporate 2010 data and adjust the 2007 baseline to be consistent with the Province’s Community Energy & Emissions Inventory methodology. Emissions continue to rise, but slower than population growth. The CIMS energy and emissions model developed by Navius Research has been used to predict the reduction impact of various policy measures. The model predicts that the CEEP’s “Deep Green” reduction target of 33% by 2031 can be achieved through implementation of the top reduction policies.


1

1. Introduction

In 2009 the SCRD, in partnership with Gibsons, Sechelt and Sechelt Indian Government District, undertook a Community Energy & Emissions Plan (CEEP)1. In this plan an energy and greenhouse gas (GHG) inventory was created, reduction targets established, and reduction actions identified. The reduction targets were adopted by the SCRD and member municipalities as required by Provincial legislation. Since the CEEP was completed, there have been some changes to the way in which the Province calculates community emissions through the Community Energy & Emissions Inventory (CEEI) initiative. The Province has also released draft CEEI reports for 2010, and 2012 reports are expected to be available in 2014. Meanwhile, the SCRD has been involved in a pilot project to develop a community emissions modelling tool (CIMS) with the Regional District of Nanaimo and Navius Research. As a result of these activities, this update seeks to:

• Update the 2007 inventory to be consistent with current CEEI methodology.

• Provide a 2010 inventory, based on the CEEI reports.

• Provide an overview of changes in emissions since 2007.

• Use the modelling tool to develop a revised Business As Usual baseline. • Use the modelling tool to estimate the impact of potential policy actions.

As the CEEP was not completed until 2010 and implementation of CEEP initiatives did not begin until 2011, the energy and emissions impacts of those initiatives are not captured in this review. Future CEEI reports will provide a better indication of the impacts of CEEP initiatives.

1

http://www.scrd.ca/files/File/Infrastructure/Sustainability/Sunshine_Coast_Community_Energy_&_Emissions_Plan_Final.pdf


2

2. Energy & Emissions Update

2.1 Background

At the time of the CEEP the Province was starting to develop the Community Energy & Emissions Initiative (CEEI), with the goal of providing all BC local governments with a community energy and GHG inventory. The SCRD CEEP used initial draft 2007 CEEI reports as the basis for the inventory. As these reports were not complete, some changes were made in developing the inventories. These included:

• Extrapolating data for the Sechelt Indian Government District from the District of Sechelt.

• Correcting errors caused by inaccurate postal code boundaries for the Town of Gibsons. • Incorporating estimates of wood, heating oil, and propane use.

• Incorporating large emitters emissions from Howe Sound Pulp & Paper.

• Incorporating agricultural emissions. CEEI later released updated 2007 reports which resolved the postal code errors, incorporated estimates of residential wood, heating oil, and propane and included agricultural emissions. The Province also created Core and Memo sections within the report. Core items are those sectors with the best quality data and where local governments exert more influence, and is intended to provide a more relevant inventory. Memo items are sectors over which local government has limited control or for which the data is limited. This includes large industrial buildings, land-use change, and agriculture. CEEI has “continuous improvement” as a stated goal, meaning they attempt to improve calculation methodologies over time. In order to allow for consistent progress measurement, any methodological changes are also incorporated into the 2007 baseline reports, which are then re-released. In 2012 CEEI released 2010 reports along with updated 2007 reports. These have improved methodologies for calculation of transportation and solid waste emissions. However, these latest reports had some errors in the data which the Province is working to correct. To provide this update, we have obtained the latest datasets from CEEI. These are still considered draft and have not been published. Although some known errors remain in this data, they have been corrected for this report and any further changes should be minor.

2.2 Update Methodology

The 2007 and 2010 inventories are generated primarily from CEEI data. Published CEEI reports are available on the Province’s website2 as well as a complete methodology for how the CEEI reports are generated3. As explained above, the data used was obtained directly from the Province due to errors in the published reports. Further adjustments were made to fix known errors that have not yet been corrected by CEEI (primarily the correction of emissions factors). Two further changes have been made that go beyond the CEEI methodology:

• SIGD data is not provided in the CEEI reports, as it is combined together with Sechelt. The Sechelt CEEI data was pro-rated between Sechelt and SIGD on a per capita basis.

• Large industrial electricity and natural gas is withheld by CEEI due to privacy concerns. However, total emissions for Howe Sound Pulp & Paper can be obtained from the federal

2 http://www.env.gov.bc.ca/cas/mitigation/ceei/reports.html

3 http://www.env.gov.bc.ca/cas/mitigation/ceei/CEEI_TechMethods_Guidance_final.pdf


3

government’s Greenhouse Gas Emissions Reporting Program4. These have been included in the inventory as a Memo Item under Large Emitters.

2.3 Updated Inventory

The updated inventories are split into Core and Memo items, consistent with CEEI. Core emissions provide the most relevant comparisons for local governments. Energy and emissions have continued to rise between 2007 to 2010. For 2007, Core emissions in the SCRD were 167,300 tonnes CO2e while in 2010 they were170,200 tonnes, an increase of 1.7%. Energy consumption increased from 3505 TJ to 3584 TJ, an increase of 2.3%. Population growth during this time was 4.9%, therefore per capita emissions have declined slightly. Caution should be used in drawing conclusions from the 2007 and 2010 inventories. Three years is a relatively short time to see the impact of new policies, technologies, or changing attitudes. Comparisons are further complicated by weather (2010 was 0.8°C warmer than 2007), the global economic turndown which began in 2008, and fluctuating fuel prices.

Figure 1

4 http://www.ec.gc.ca/ges-ghg/default.asp?lang=En&n=8044859A-1

167,302

42,724

106,974

17,604

170,200

40,878

111,013

18,309

- 20,000 40,000 60,000 80,000 100,000 120,000 140,000 160,000 180,000

Tonnes CO2e

GHG Emissions by Sector, 2007 & 2010Transportation and Solid Waste emissions have increased, while Buildings

emissions have decreased

2007

2010

Total

Buildings

Transportation

Solid Waste


4

Figure 2

The change in emissions varied by sector, with Buildings seeing a 4.3% drop in emissions while Transportation saw a 3.8% increase and Solid Waste a 4.0% increase. Transportation continues to account for the majority of emissions, over 60%.

Figure 3

3,505

1,931

1,561

3,584

1,870

1,700

- 500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 3,000 3,500 4,000

Energy (TJ)

Energy Consumption by Sector, 2007 & 2010Transportation has increased, while Buildings has decreased

2007

2010

Buildings

Transportation

Total

Resid.

Buildings

20%

Comm.

Buildings

6%

Personal

Vehicles

52%

Comm.

Vehicles

12%

Solid

Waste

10%

2007

Resid.

Buildings

19%

Comm.

Buildings

5%

Personal

Vehicles

52%

Comm.

Vehicles

13%

Solid

Waste

11%

2010


5

In Buildings, energy and emissions were down for all fuel types, with the greatest reductions in heating oil and natural gas.

Figure 4

For transportation, there are decreased emissions from small and large cars, while emissions from trucks/SUVs, motorcycles, and commercial vehicles have increased.

Figure 5

Electricity

Natural Gas

Propane

Heating Oil

Wood

-8.0% -6.0% -4.0% -2.0% 0.0% 2.0%

Change in Building Emissions by Fuel, 2007 to 2010Emissions have declined for all fuel types

Small cars

Large Cars

Truck/Van/SUV

Motorcycle

Comm/TT/Bus/MH

-15.0% -10.0% -5.0% 0.0% 5.0% 10.0% 15.0%

Change in Transportation Emissions by Vehicle, 2007

to 2010Emissions have decreased for small and large cars, while increasing for

trucks/SUVs, motorcycles, and commercial vehicles


6

The mass of Solid Waste deposited in the landfill has declined significantly, but emissions continue to rise due to waste already in the landfill.

Figure 6

Energy and emissions in Gibsons and the SIGD decreased slightly from 2007 to 2010, while emissions from Sechelt were almost unchanged. Emissions in the unincorporated areas accounted for most of the rise in emissions overall.

Figure 7

CEEI did not update memo items for 2010. Therefore there is no change to values for large industrial buildings, land-use change, or agriculture. The CEEP and this update include large emitters (Howe Sound Pulp & Paper), whose emissions increased from 112,400 tonnes in 2007 to 128,100 tonnes in 2010, an increase of 14%. Complete inventories can be found in the Appendix.

Mass

CO2e

-10.0% -8.0% -6.0% -4.0% -2.0% 0.0% 2.0% 4.0% 6.0%

Change in Solid Waste Mass & Emissions, 2007 to 2010Mass has decreased but emissions have increased

Gibsons

Sechelt

SIGD

Unincorporated

Areas

SCRD Total

-8.0% -6.0% -4.0% -2.0% 0.0% 2.0% 4.0% 6.0% 8.0%

Change in Emissions by Municipality, 2007 to 2010Most of the increase has ocurred in unincorporated areas


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2.4 Factors Impacting Emissions Between 2007 and 2010

As mentioned above, many factors come into play in whether emissions increase or decrease between years. However, some known factors as well as possible reasons for changes in emissions between 2007 and 2010 are outlined below. Table 1: Factors Impacting Emissions

Sector Change 2007 - 2010 Factors

Buildings 3.1% decrease in energy 4.1% decrease in emissions

• 2010 was 0.8°C warmer than 2007, reducing heating energy.

• Emissions decreased by more than energy in part because natural gas, the primary heating fuel, has a higher emissions factor than electricity. As well, the emissions factor for heating oil decreased due to legislation requiring renewable fuel content.

• The federal EcoEnergy and BC LiveSmart programs for houses were active during the period.

• There was a slowdown in new home construction.

• New efficiency requirements for equipment and in the building code were introduced, although the impact will be mostly felt in future years.

Transportation 9.0% increase in energy 3.9% increase in emissions

• Increasing transportation energy consumption above that of population growth has been an ongoing trend for many years, largely due to more people purchasing trucks and SUVs.

• The impact of higher efficiency vehicles will take several years before the market share is large enough to have a significant impact.

• Emissions increased by less than energy as the emissions factor for gasoline and diesel decreased due to legislation requiring renewable fuel content.

Solid Waste 7.8% decrease in mass 4.0% increase in emissions

• Waste disposal is decreasing throughout the province due to increased recycling and greater awareness.

• Emissions continue to increase in spite of the mass reduction as emissions are a result of decaying organic waste deposited in earlier years. The impact of reduced waste disposal will be seen in future years.

2.5 Changes from CEEP Inventory

There are a number of differences between the inventory completed as part of the CEEP and this updated inventory. Total emissions for 2007 have changed in the inventory from 354,000 tonnes to 320,000 tonnes. There are various reasons for this, including:

• Changes to the way BC Hydro assigns industrial buildings to sectors. Small and medium industrial is now included as part of commercial. Previously these were included in large industrial and withheld due to privacy concerns.


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• Removal of commercial propane and heating oil estimates due to the difficulty of obtaining this data.

• Improved transportation methodology, including new vehicle kilometers travelled (VKT) and efficiency data, more accurate assignment of vehicles to jurisdictions, and revised vehicle classification.

• Revised methodology for calculating solid waste emissions. • Revised estimates of deforestation impacts due to settlement and agriculture.

• Removal of manure management and agricultural soils from emissions calculations for agriculture.

• Updating of emissions factors.

2.6 Community vs Corporate Emissions

There is sometimes confusion between community and corporate emissions. Corporate emissions refer only to those emissions that result directly from local government operations, such as operation of municipal buildings, vehicle fleets, and solid waste produced by the local government. Community emissions include all emissions occurring within the local government boundary (which includes corporate emissions). Community emissions are usually much larger than corporate emissions as there are many more buildings and vehicles in the community than are operated by local governments.

Figure 8

Community vs Corporate EmissionsCorporate emissions are less than 1% of community emissions

CorporateEmissions

Community Emissions


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3. Scenario Analysis

3.1 Model Description

CIMS was developed by Navius Research and M.K. Jaccard and Associates Inc. to provide a tool for local governments to assess the impacts of policies on future energy consumption and emissions. Navius provides the following overview:

“The CIMS model provides rigorous analyses of how policy will impact future energy consumption, air emissions, capital costs, operating costs and energy costs in a given region. It is a detailed representation of technologies and infrastructure (capital stock) in all sectors of the economy from the present to 2050. The capital stock in the model consumes and produces energy to provide goods and services ranging from transportation to space heating to industrial output such as steel or paper. CIMS simulates capital stock turnover through time as stock is acquired, used, retrofitted, and eventually retired. The acquisition of new stock simulates realistic consumer and firm behaviour rather than assuming technology choices are made to minimize long-term financial costs. Energy supply and demand are held in equilibrium to account for the production of all energy consumed in the model and to adjust energy prices as the cost of energy production changes. It includes a representation of macro-economic feedbacks, such that demand for energy intensive goods and services adjusts to reflect changing market and policy conditions.

Using external forecasts of baseline energy prices and economic growth, CIMS produces a reference forecast of the capital stock used to provide goods and service. Consequently, it forecasts the resulting greenhouse gas emissions and energy consumption. Alternative scenarios that include different market and policy conditions demonstrate their impact on energy consumption, air emissions, and financial costs relative to this reference forecast. CIMS has been applied at the municipal level and to all Canadian provinces and territories, to the United States, to China and some global regions.”

3.2 Assumptions

CIMS incorporates a number of assumptions for factors such as population growth, fuel prices, type and size of dwellings, vehicle kilometres travelled, and solid waste produced. Most of these are specific to the Sunshine Coast and are taken from federal or provincial data sources. CIMS allows the user to adjust some of these assumptions. After reviewing the default assumptions, all were considered to be appropriate (or no better data was available) with the exception of precipitation at the landfill, which was revised to 1001-2000 mm. The assumptions can be found in the Appendix.

3.3 Business As Usual Forecast

CIMS provides a reference case, which is a Business As Usual (BAU) forecast. The BAU forecast assumes no specific policy actions related to energy or climate change. The BAU increase is usually less than the rate of population growth, due to natural changes in building and vehicle stock, fuel shares, technology advances, and accumulated solid waste. Based on the CIMS forecast, emissions will increase by 0.8% a year compared to 1.5% population growth. This will result in Core emissions of 190,000 tonnes in 2030 and 233,000 tonnes in 2050. This corresponds to a 12% increase by 2030 and a 37% increase by 2050.


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The emission reduction target adopted by local governments on the Sunshine Coast, based on the CEEP, is 7% by 2031. The CEEP also provides a “deep green” reduction target of 33% by 2031, although this has not been adopted. The BAU case and these two reduction targets (extrapolated to 2050) are shown in the figure below.

Figure 9

3.4 CIMS Policy Scenarios Analysed

CIMS allows for a number of different policies to be analysed. These are broken down by sector. Some policies are the prerogative of the provincial or federal governments and beyond the control of local governments.

3.4.1 Federal and Provincial Government Policy

While local government can lobby federal and provincial government, these policies reside principally with other levels of government and are beyond the direct control of local governments. Therefore the first scenario analysed was a Federal and Provincial Government Policy (FPGP) scenario, which incorporates known energy and climate policies from the federal or provincial governments. Often the long term continuity of these policies is not known, and some assumptions have been made based on known and anticipated policy changes already underway in BC and in Canada. The policies and rationale for the FPGP scenario are outlined in the table below:

-

50,000

100,000

150,000

200,000

250,000

2007 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

kT

on

ne

s C

O2

e

Year

Business As Usual Emissions GrowthEmissions rise to 233,000 tonnes CO2e by 2050

Adopted Target - 7% by 2031


11

Table 2: Federal and Provincial Government Policies

Policy Area Policy/Standard Rationale / notes

Carbon tax Existing carbon tax, escalated for inflation.

No increase in the carbon tax was assumed, but 2% escalation for inflation was included. Without escalation the existing tax would become irrelevant over time.

Residential Building Code

Improvements to current building code

The building code is introducing higher standards in 2014 and the Province has committed to ongoing improvements.

Residential technology subsidies

Live Smart BC

Although the provincial and federal programs have currently finished, they have been brought back numerous times and it is believed likely they will be re-introduced in some form. BC Hydro and Fortis BC also have incentive programs.

Residential technology standards

Federal equipment standards

Currently in place or intention to adopt by either Federal or Provincial government.

Commercial Building Code

ASHRAE 90.1 + 19% Incoming changes to the building code will raise levels to 90.1 + 10%, and the Province has committed to ongoing improvements.

Commercial technology standards

Federal equipment standards

Currently in place or intention to adopt by either Federal or Provincial government.

Vehicle fuel economy standards

Increasing fuel efficiency

The federal government has already committed to increasing efficiency to 2025, in line with US standards.

Renewable content standards

10% ethanol and bio-diesel

Currently 5%, and Provincial legislation calls for 10% by 2020.

3.4.2 Local Government Policies

All the remaining policies under local government control were analysed, regardless of the likelihood that they would be introduced on the Sunshine Coast. This provides insight into their relative impacts providing context for policy choices that support the SCRD reaching its CEEP 2031 community emissions targets. The policies were run with the FPGP scenario in place. In some cases there was more than one policy option to choose from, and an assumption was made about the one most likely to be implemented. In the case of community density both options were analysed, as density has such a large impact on emissions. Each policy was analysed separately in order to see the impact. The policy areas and the policy/standard selected for each area are outlined below.


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Table 3: Local Government Policies

Policy Area Policy/Standard

1a Community density Moderate

1b Community density Aggressive

2 Residential building code enforcement Increase from 80% to 95%

3 Residential building standards (DPAs, zoning, rezoning) Short term: 14% > current code Long term: 40% > current code

4 Residential reduced DCCs 14% > current code

5 Residential technology subsidies Zero-emissions and on-site renewables

6 Commercial building standards (DPAs) ASHRAE 90.1 + 34%

7 Commercial reduced DCCs ASHRAE 90.1 + 34%

8 Commercial technology subsidies Zero-emissions and on-site renewables

9 Waste - organics separation 80% organics collection

10 Waste - landfill gas collection 50% capture

3.5 Results

The Federal and Provincial Government Policy scenario results in GHG emissions of 159,000 tonnes in 2050. This is a 32% reduction from the BAU case and a 6% reduction from 2007. Emissions actually drop to 147,000 tonnes in 2030 but then begin to increase again. This is because the model assumes there will be smaller efficiency gains over time, which are offset by population increases. The Federal FPGP scenario alone achieves the adopted reduction target of 7% by 2031. However, it does not maintain those reductions to 2050.

-

50,000

100,000

150,000

200,000

250,000

2007 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

kT

on

ne

s C

O2

e

Year

Federal and Provincial Government ScenarioEmissions drop initially but rise after 2030


Adopted Target - 7% by 2031


13

The local government policies result in emissions reductions ranging from 26.4 tonnes (17%) to an increase of 1.7 tonnes (1% increase)5. The policies with the greatest impact are increasing community density (both moderate and aggressive) and solid waste management (organics separation and landfill gas collection). The remaining policies have relatively little impact. Table 4: Emissions Reductions by Policy

Policy Area

Annual Emissions Reduction (tonnes CO2e)

2030 2050

1a Community density - moderate 4.0 9.5

1b Community density - aggressive 12.6 26.4

2 Residential building code enforcement 0.5 0.4

3 Residential building standards (DPA, Zoning) 0.3 0.7

4 Residential reduced DCCs (0.1) (0.5)

5 Residential technology subsidies (0.2) (1.7)

6 Commercial building standards (DPAs) 0.6 0.9

7 Commercial reduced DCCs 0.2 0.3

8 Commercial technology subsidies 2.3 2.8

9 Waste - organics separation 15.7 25.7

10 Waste - landfill gas collection 9.3 12.7

5 Some policies result in increased energy and emissions due to a switch in fuels from electric heating to

wood. Although wood is a fairly low emissions fuel, it has higher emissions than electricity and lower combustion efficiency.


14

Figure 10

Policies often have some interaction between them, potentially impacting the emissions reductions. An example is organics separation, which will reduce the amount of landfill gas generated and therefore the reductions achieved by landfill gas collection. Because of this the reductions cannot be summed to determine the overall impact. Two additional policy scenarios have been run to assess overall reductions. The first incorporates all the policies (except moderate density, which is inherent in aggressive density). The second includes the policies that are most effective at reducing emissions - aggressive community density, organics collection, and landfill gas collection (referenced as “Top 3”). All policies combined result in emissions reductions of 32 tonnes by 2030 and 51 tonnes by 2050. When combined with FPGP this is a reduction from 2007 of 32% by 2030 and 36% by 2050, close to achieving the 2031 Deep Green target, although reductions taper off by 2050. The Top 3 policies actually achieve slightly better results than all the policies combined. This is because some policies actually increase emissions. The Top 3 policies result in emissions

5. Residential

technology subsidies

4. Residential

reduced DCCs

7. Commercial

reduced DCCs

2. Residential

building code

enforcement

3. Residential

building

6. Commercial

building standards

(DPAs)

8. Commercial

technology subsidies

1a. Community

density - moderate

10. Waste - landfill

gas collection

9. Waste - organics

separation

1b. Community

density - aggressive

-5.0 - 5.0 10.0 15.0 20.0 25.0 30.0

Tonnes CO2e

Annual Emissions Reductions by 2050Increasing Community Density and Solid Waste Management have the

greatest Impact.


15

reductions of 32 tonnes by 2030 and 5 tonnes by 2050. When combined with FPGP this is a reduction from 2007 of 32% by 2030 and 39% by 2050.

Figure 11

Figure 12

-

50,000

100,000

150,000

200,000

250,000

2007 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

kT

on

ne

s C

O2

e

Year

All Policy Options Combined


All Policies

-

50,000

100,000

150,000

200,000

250,000

2007 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

kT

on

ne

s C

O2

e

Year

Top 3 Policy Options Combined


Top 3 Policies


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4. Summary and Conclusions

The updated 2007 and 2010 inventories indicate that energy and emissions continue to rise, although more slowly than the rate of population growth. This is primarily as a result of rising transportation emissions, particularly for trucks/SUVs and commercial vehicles. Conversely, emissions from the buildings sector have declined, led by emissions reductions in natural gas and heating oil. The rise in emissions has occurred primarily in the unincorporated areas, with incorporated areas showing a decrease overall. However, caution should be used in drawing conclusions from these results, as three years is a relatively short time period and comparisons are complicated by weather, economic conditions, and fuel prices. The CIMs model provides forward looking estimates of energy and emissions under various scenarios. The business as usual scenario predicts a 37% increase in emissions by 2050. However, federal and provincial government policies result in a 6% decrease in emissions by 2050. Local governments can build on the federal and provincial policies in a number of policy areas. Of these, the most significant reductions are achieved through increasing community density and solid waste management. Other policies analysed have relatively minor impacts, and in some cases actually increase emissions. However, this does not mean the other policies are not worthwhile. They may be supportive of federal/provincial policies or play an important educational role. But they should not be expected to directly achieve large reductions on their own. Implementing all the local government policies would result in a 32% decrease in emissions by 2030 and a 36% decrease by 2050. Implementing just the Top 3 policies - aggressive community densification, organics separation, and landfill gas collection - has even greater reductions of 32% by 2030 and 39% by 2050. While other policies may be helpful in supporting reduction efforts, it will be essential to focus on the Top 3 in order to achieve significant reductions. If fully implemented, these policies may come close to achieving the Deep Green reduction target from the CEEP. Even partial implementation (e.g. moderate community density) would likely provide a significant step towards reducing energy and GHG emissions on the Sunshine Coast.


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Appendices

Inventories - SCRD, Gibsons, Sechelt, Sechelt Indian Government District 2010 CEEP Emissions Data CIMS Assumptions

Sunshine Coast Regional District 2007 Population: 28,590

Community Energy & Greenhouse Gas Emissions Inventory: 2007

BUILDINGS

Type Connections Energy (GJ) CO2e (t) Energy (GJ) CO2e (t)

Electricity 15,806 228,518,867 kWh 14,458 kWh 822,668 5,713

Natural Gas 4,919 290,542 GJ 59 GJ 290,542 14,574

Propane 1 97,068 GJ 97,068 GJ 97,068 5,922

Heating Oil 1 46,017 GJ 46,017 GJ 46,017 3,244

Wood 1 178,970 GJ 178,970 GJ 178,970 3,633


Natural Gas 489 143,415 GJ 293 GJ 143,415 7,194

Propane - - GJ - GJ - -

Electricity 17,795 326,297,438 kWh 1,174,671 8,157

Natural Gas 5,408 433,957 GJ 433,957 21,767

Propane 1 97,068 GJ 97,068 5,922

Heating Oil 1 46,017 GJ 46,017 3,244

Wood 1 178,970 GJ 178,970 3,633

ON ROAD TRANSPORTATION

Type Units Energy (GJ) CO2e (t) Energy (GJ) CO2e (t)

Gasoline 5,189 7,276,902 L 1,402 L 254,692 17,340

Diesel Fuel 145 226,215 L 1,561 L 8,664 618

Other Fuel - - L - L - -

Hybrid <10 4,658 L - L 163 11

Electric - - L - L - -

Gasoline 2,770 4,467,654 L 1,613 L 156,368 10,642

Diesel Fuel 42 58,173 L 1,384 L 2,228 158

Other Fuel <10 4,141 L - L 105 6

Hybrid 16 14,823 L 935 L 519 35

Gasoline 8,564 23,110,199 L 2,699 L 808,857 55,371

Diesel Fuel 385 915,094 L 2,374 L 35,048 2,492

Other Fuel 50 104,959 L 2,107 L 2,657 161

Hybrid 11 22,681 L 2,071 L 794 54

Gasoline 618 1,987,535 L 3,215 L 69,564 4,669

Diesel Fuel 690 2,710,387 L 3,931 L 103,808 7,293

Other Fuel 34 89,288 L 2,621 L 2,260 137

Hybrid - - L - L - -

Gasoline - - L - L - -

Diesel Fuel 195 1,930,216 L 9,901 L 73,927 5,194


Gasoline 179 499,757 L 2,795 L 17,492 1,168

Diesel Fuel 110 380,139 L 3,471 L 14,559 1,023

Other Fuel <10 14,408 L - L 365 22

Gasoline 355 99,048 L 279 L 3,467 232

Diesel Fuel - - L - L - -


Gasoline 15 46,384 L 3,143 L 1,623 109

Diesel Fuel 16 74,457 L 4,636 L 2,852 200

Other Fuel <10 26,390 L - L 668 40



Gasoline 17,689 37,487,479 L 1,312,062 89,530

Diesel Fuel 1,582 6,294,682 L 241,086 16,978

Other Fuel 84 239,187 L 6,054 366

Hybrid 27 42,162 L 1,476 99

Electric - - L - -

SOLID WASTE

Type Estimation Method Mass (t) CO2e (t) CO2e (t)

COMMUNITY SOLID WASTE Solid Waste Waste-In-Place 14,088 17,604 17,604

Total

Type Consumption Energy (GJ) CO2e (t) Energy (GJ) CO2e (t)

Electricity 326,297,438 kWh 1,174,671 8,157

Natural Gas 433,957 GJ 433,957 21,767

Propane 97,068 GJ 97,068 5,922

Heating Oil 46,017 GJ 46,017 3,244

Wood 178,970 GJ 178,970 3,633

Gasoline 37,487,479 L 1,312,062 89,530

Diesel Fuel 6,294,682 L 241,086 16,978

Other Fuel 239,187 L 6,054 366

Hybrid 42,162 L 1,476 99

Electric - L - -

Solid Waste 14,088 tonnes 17,604

Energy & Emissions Total


3,491,360 167,302


Consumption Energy/Connection

1,435,265 33,086

495,418 9,638

1,930,683 42,724

RESIDENTIAL

COMMERCIAL/SM-MED INDUSTRIAL

SUBTOTAL


Consumption Litres/Unit

SMALL PASSENGER CARS 263,519 17,969

LARGE PASSENGER CARS 159,220 10,841

LIGHT TRUCKS, VANS, AND SUVS 847,355 58,077

COMMERCIAL VEHICLES 175,631 12,099

TRACTOR TRAILER TRUCKS 73,927 5,194

MOTORHOMES 32,415 2,212

MOTORCYCLES AND MOPEDS 3,467 232

BUS 5,143 350

SUBTOTAL 1,560,678 106,974

Memo Items - Not Counted in Total

LARGE INDUSTRIAL

Type Connections Consumption Energy/Connection Energy (GJ) CO2e (t) Energy (GJ) CO2e (t)

Electricity 2 - kWh - kWh - -

Natural Gas 1 0 GJ 0 GJ 0 -

LAND-USE CHANGE

Type Settlement (Ha) Agriculture (Ha) Total Area (Ha) CO2e (t) CO2e (t)

AGRICULTURE AND SETTLEMENT Deforestation 43 1 44 39,340 39,340

AGRICULTURE

Type Methane (t) CO2e (t) CO2e (t)

ENTERIC FERMENTATION Methane 13 tonnes 273 273

LARGE-EMITTERS

CO2e (t) CO2e (t)

HOWE SOUND PULP & PAPER 112,352 112,352


LARGE INDUSTRIAL BUILDINGS 0 -




Gibsons 2007 Population: 4,336


BUILDINGS


Electricity 2,181 27,923,305 kWh 12,803 kWh 100,524 698

Natural Gas 971 54,294 GJ 56 GJ 54,294 2,723

Propane 1 9,643 GJ 9,643 GJ 9,643 588

Heating Oil 1 4,565 GJ 4,565 GJ 4,565 322

Wood 1 17,723 GJ 17,723 GJ 17,723 360

Electricity 462 22,308,385 kWh 48,287 kWh 80,310 558

Natural Gas 141 48,796 GJ 346 GJ 48,796 2,448


Electricity 2,643 50,231,690 kWh 180,834 1,256

Natural Gas 1,112 103,090 GJ 103,090 5,171

Propane 1 9,643 GJ 9,643 588

Heating Oil 1 4,565 GJ 4,565 322

Wood 1 17,723 GJ 17,723 360



Gasoline 1,047 1,450,229 L 1,385 L 50,758 3,459

Diesel Fuel 25 40,219 L 1,626 L 1,540 110


Hybrid <10 1,294 L - L 45 3


Gasoline 547 881,705 L 1,612 L 30,860 2,100

Diesel Fuel <10 7,895 L - L 302 21


Hybrid <10 1,060 L - L 37 2

Gasoline 1,513 4,084,997 L 2,700 L 142,975 9,795

Diesel Fuel 82 197,429 L 2,419 L 7,562 538

Other Fuel 14 29,581 L 2,103 L 749 45

Hybrid <10 1,654 L - L 58 4

Gasoline 107 359,393 L 3,357 L 12,579 844

Diesel Fuel 118 487,093 L 4,137 L 18,656 1,311

Other Fuel <10 12,645 L - L 320 19



Diesel Fuel 41 336,193 L 8,127 L 12,876 905


Gasoline 36 103,179 L 2,836 L 3,611 242

Diesel Fuel 17 58,993 L 3,418 L 2,259 159


Gasoline 61 17,168 L 279 L 601 40



Gasoline <10 27,490 L - L 962 65





Gasoline 3,312 6,924,161 L 242,346 16,545

Diesel Fuel 283 1,127,822 L 43,196 3,043

Other Fuel 14 42,226 L 1,069 65

Hybrid - 4,009 L 140 9

Electric - - L - -

SOLID WASTE



Total


Electricity 50,231,690 kWh 180,834 1,256

Natural Gas 103,090 GJ 103,090 5,171

Propane 9,643 GJ 9,643 588

Heating Oil 4,565 GJ 4,565 322

Wood 17,723 GJ 17,723 360

Gasoline 6,924,161 L 242,346 16,545

Diesel Fuel 1,127,822 L 43,196 3,043

Other Fuel 42,226 L 1,069 65

Hybrid 4,009 L 140 9

Electric - L - -




602,605 29,751

31,554 2,174

SUBTOTAL 286,750 19,662

BUS 962 65

MOTORHOMES 5,871 400

MOTORCYCLES AND MOPEDS 601 40



186,749 4,691 RESIDENTIAL

COMMERCIAL/SM-MED INDUSTRIAL 129,106 3,005

SUBTOTAL 315,855 7,697



SMALL PASSENGER CARS

TRACTOR TRAILER TRUCKS 12,876 905

52,344 3,571



COMMERCIAL VEHICLES

Sechelt 2007 Population: 8,766


BUILDINGS



Natural Gas 2,066 117,733 GJ 57 GJ 117,733 5,906

Propane 1 12,464 GJ 12,464 GJ 12,464 760

Heating Oil 1 5,907 GJ 5,907 GJ 5,907 416

Wood 1 22,963 GJ 22,963 GJ 22,963 466


Natural Gas 233 74,731 GJ 320 GJ 74,731 3,748


Electricity 5,493 102,041,474 kWh 367,349 2,551

Natural Gas 2,299 192,464 GJ 192,464 9,654

Propane 1 12,464 GJ 12,464 760

Heating Oil 1 5,907 GJ 5,907 416

Wood 1 22,963 GJ 22,963 466



Gasoline 1,785 2,532,620 L 1,419 L 88,642 6,025

Diesel Fuel 48 77,299 L 1,594 L 2,961 211


Hybrid <10 2,473 L - L 87 6


Gasoline 1,029 1,648,031 L 1,602 L 57,681 3,927

Diesel Fuel 13 17,682 L 1,313 L 677 48

Other Fuel <10 2,348 L - L 59 4

Hybrid <10 4,597 L - L 161 11

Gasoline 2,974 8,095,074 L 2,722 L 283,328 19,385

Diesel Fuel 112 267,161 L 2,391 L 10,232 728

Other Fuel 17 37,469 L 2,153 L 948 57

Hybrid <10 11,403 L - L 399 27

Gasoline 212 703,809 L 3,315 L 24,633 1,653

Diesel Fuel 264 1,032,238 L 3,912 L 39,535 2,778

Other Fuel 13 32,534 L 2,588 L 823 50



Diesel Fuel 78 596,311 L 7,637 L 22,839 1,605


Gasoline 54 149,817 L 2,798 L 5,244 350

Diesel Fuel 41 144,837 L 3,505 L 5,547 390

Other Fuel <10 10,018 L - L 254 15

Gasoline 123 34,323 L 279 L 1,201 80



Gasoline <10 11,910 L - L 417 28

Diesel Fuel 14 63,183 L 4,581 L 2,420 170

Other Fuel <10 24,148 L - L 611 37



Gasoline 6,176 13,175,584 L 461,145 31,448

Diesel Fuel 571 2,198,712 L 84,211 5,929

Other Fuel 30 106,517 L 2,696 163

Hybrid - 18,473 L 647 44

Electric - - L - -

SOLID WASTE



Total


Electricity 102,041,474 kWh 367,349 2,551

Natural Gas 192,464 GJ 192,464 9,654

Propane 12,464 GJ 12,464 760


Wood 22,963 GJ 22,963 466

Gasoline 13,175,584 L 461,145 31,448

Diesel Fuel 2,198,712 L 84,211 5,929

Other Fuel 106,517 L 2,696 163

Hybrid 18,473 L 647 44

Electric - L - -




1,149,846 56,928

64,991 4,481

SUBTOTAL 548,699 37,583

BUS 3,448 235







SUBTOTAL 601,147 13,847





91,689 6,242



COMMERCIAL VEHICLES

Sechelt Ind Gov Dist 2007 Population: 814


BUILDINGS



Natural Gas 192 10,933 GJ 57 GJ 10,933 548

Propane 1 2,497 GJ 2,497 GJ 2,497 152

Heating Oil 1 1,184 GJ 1,184 GJ 1,184 83

Wood 1 4,604 GJ 4,604 GJ 4,604 93


Natural Gas 22 6,939 GJ 320 GJ 6,939 348


Electricity 468 11,832,922 kWh 42,599 296

Natural Gas 214 17,872 GJ 17,872 896

Propane 1 2,497 GJ 2,497 152

Heating Oil 1 1,184 GJ 1,184 83

Wood 1 4,604 GJ 4,604 93



Gasoline 166 235,176 L 1,419 L 8,231 559

Diesel Fuel 5 7,178 L 1,594 L 275 20


Hybrid <10 230 L - L 8 1


Gasoline 96 153,034 L 1,602 L 5,356 365

Diesel Fuel 1 1,642 L 1,313 L 63 4

Other Fuel <10 218 L - L 6 0

Hybrid <10 427 L - L 15 1

Gasoline 276 751,699 L 2,722 L 26,309 1,800

Diesel Fuel 10 24,808 L 2,391 L 950 68

Other Fuel 2 3,479 L 2,153 L 88 5

Hybrid <10 1,059 L - L 37 3

Gasoline 20 65,355 L 3,315 L 2,287 154

Diesel Fuel 25 95,852 L 3,912 L 3,671 258

Other Fuel 1 3,021 L 2,588 L 76 5



Diesel Fuel 7 55,373 L 7,637 L 2,121 149


Gasoline 5 13,912 L 2,798 L 487 32

Diesel Fuel 4 13,449 L 3,505 L 515 36

Other Fuel <10 930 L - L 24 1

Gasoline 11 3,187 L 279 L 112 7



Gasoline <10 1,106 L - L 39 3

Diesel Fuel 1 5,867 L 4,581 L 225 16

Other Fuel <10 2,242 L - L 57 3



Gasoline 573 1,223,469 L 42,821 2,920

Diesel Fuel 53 204,170 L 7,820 551

Other Fuel 3 9,891 L 250 15

Hybrid - 1,715 L 60 4

Electric - - L - -

SOLID WASTE


COMMUNITY SOLID WASTE Solid Waste Waste-In-Place 401 510 510

Total


Electricity 11,832,922 kWh 42,599 296

Natural Gas 17,872 GJ 17,872 896

Propane 2,497 GJ 2,497 152


Wood 4,604 GJ 4,604 93

Gasoline 1,223,469 L 42,821 2,920

Diesel Fuel 204,170 L 7,820 551

Other Fuel 9,891 L 250 15

Hybrid 1,715 L 60 4

Electric - L - -

Solid Waste 401 tonnes 510



119,707 5,521

6,035 416

SUBTOTAL 50,951 3,490

BUS 320 22

MOTORHOMES 1,026 70





COMMERCIAL/SM-MED INDUSTRIAL 28,760 500

SUBTOTAL 68,755 1,521





8,514 580

LARGE PASSENGER CARS 5,440 370


COMMERCIAL VEHICLES

Unincorporated areas 2007 Population: 14,674


BUILDINGS



Natural Gas 1,690 107,582 GJ 64 GJ 107,582 5,396

Propane 1 72,463 GJ 72,463 GJ 72,463 4,420

Heating Oil 1 34,361 GJ 34,361 GJ 34,361 2,422

Wood 1 133,680 GJ 133,680 GJ 133,680 2,714


Natural Gas 93 12,950 GJ 139 GJ 12,950 650


Electricity 9,191 162,191,352 kWh 583,889 4,055

Natural Gas 1,783 120,532 GJ 120,532 6,046

Propane 1 72,463 GJ 72,463 4,420

Heating Oil 1 34,361 GJ 34,361 2,422

Wood 1 133,680 GJ 133,680 2,714



Gasoline 2,191 3,058,877 L 1,396 L 107,061 7,297

Diesel Fuel 67 101,519 L 1,511 L 3,888 277


Hybrid <10 661 L - L 23 2


Gasoline 1,099 1,784,885 L 1,624 L 62,471 4,250

Diesel Fuel 21 30,954 L 1,508 L 1,186 84

Other Fuel <10 1,575 L - L 40 2

Hybrid <10 8,738 L - L 306 20

Gasoline 3,801 10,178,429 L 2,678 L 356,245 24,391

Diesel Fuel 182 425,696 L 2,343 L 16,304 1,159

Other Fuel 17 34,430 L 2,058 L 871 53

Hybrid <10 8,565 L - L 300 20

Gasoline 279 858,978 L 3,078 L 30,064 2,018

Diesel Fuel 283 1,095,203 L 3,864 L 41,946 2,947

Other Fuel 15 41,087 L 2,677 L 1,040 63



Diesel Fuel 68 942,339 L 13,806 L 36,092 2,536


Gasoline 84 232,849 L 2,775 L 8,150 544

Diesel Fuel 47 162,858 L 3,458 L 6,237 438

Other Fuel <10 3,460 L - L 88 5

Gasoline 159 44,370 L 279 L 1,553 104



Gasoline <10 5,878 L - L 206 14

Diesel Fuel <10 5,407 L - L 207 15




Gasoline 7,613 16,164,267 L 565,749 38,617

Diesel Fuel 668 2,763,977 L 105,860 7,456

Other Fuel 32 80,552 L 2,039 123

Hybrid - 17,965 L 629 42

Electric - - L - -

SOLID WASTE



Total


Electricity 162,191,352 kWh 583,889 4,055

Natural Gas 120,532 GJ 120,532 6,046

Propane 72,463 GJ 72,463 4,420

Heating Oil 34,361 GJ 34,361 2,422

Wood 133,680 GJ 133,680 2,714

Gasoline 16,164,267 L 565,749 38,617

Diesel Fuel 2,763,977 L 105,860 7,456

Other Fuel 80,552 L 2,039 123

Hybrid 17,965 L 629 42

Electric - L - -




1,619,202 75,100

73,050 5,028

SUBTOTAL 674,277 46,239

BUS 413 28







SUBTOTAL 944,925 19,656





110,972 7,576



COMMERCIAL VEHICLES

Sunshine Coast Regional District 2010 Population: 29,984


BUILDINGS



Natural Gas 5,386 278,147 GJ 52 GJ 278,147 13,952

Propane 1 93,965 GJ 93,965 GJ 93,965 5,733

Heating Oil 1 44,546 GJ 44,546 GJ 44,546 3,046

Wood 1 173,250 GJ 173,250 GJ 173,250 3,517


Natural Gas 379 132,800 GJ 350 GJ 132,800 6,661


Electricity 18,367 318,768,894 kWh 1,147,568 7,969

Natural Gas 5,765 410,947 GJ 410,947 20,613

Propane 1 93,965 GJ 93,965 5,733

Heating Oil 1 44,546 GJ 44,546 3,046

Wood 1 173,250 GJ 173,250 3,517



Gasoline 5,456 7,508,449 L 1,376 L 262,796 16,954

Diesel Fuel 172 252,784 L 1,473 L 9,682 670


Hybrid 13 10,720 L 807 L 375 24

Electric <10 - L - L - -

Gasoline 2,690 4,154,820 L 1,544 L 145,419 9,222

Diesel Fuel 66 75,288 L 1,137 L 2,884 199

Other Fuel <10 384 L - L 10 1

Hybrid 49 53,512 L 1,087 L 1,873 102

Gasoline 9,589 25,660,971 L 2,676 L 898,134 58,416

Diesel Fuel 312 842,281 L 2,699 L 32,259 2,229

Other Fuel 42 82,450 L 1,962 L 2,087 126

Hybrid 31 64,715 L 2,088 L 2,265 146

Gasoline 715 2,238,299 L 3,130 L 78,340 5,024

Diesel Fuel 860 3,745,913 L 4,354 L 143,468 9,788

Other Fuel 25 50,867 L 2,054 L 1,287 78

Hybrid <10 - L - L - -


Diesel Fuel 201 1,976,286 L 9,852 L 75,692 5,164


Gasoline 198 555,760 L 2,801 L 19,452 1,241

Diesel Fuel 96 341,575 L 3,551 L 13,082 892

Other Fuel <10 12,251 L - L 310 19

Gasoline 448 120,514 L 269 L 4,218 269



Gasoline 16 44,700 L 2,801 L 1,564 100

Diesel Fuel 28 127,242 L 4,524 L 4,873 332

Other Fuel <10 9,928 L - L 251 15



Gasoline 19,113 40,283,512 L 1,409,923 91,226

Diesel Fuel 1,735 7,361,369 L 281,940 19,275

Other Fuel 67 155,881 L 3,945 239

Hybrid 94 128,947 L 4,513 272

Electric - - L - -

SOLID WASTE



Total


Electricity 318,768,894 kWh 1,147,568 7,969

Natural Gas 410,947 GJ 410,947 20,613

Propane 93,965 GJ 93,965 5,733

Heating Oil 44,546 GJ 44,546 3,046

Wood 173,250 GJ 173,250 3,517

Gasoline 40,283,512 L 1,409,923 91,226

Diesel Fuel 7,361,369 L 281,940 19,275

Other Fuel 155,881 L 3,945 239

Hybrid 128,947 L 4,513 272

Electric - L - -


BUS 6,689 448

SUBTOTAL 1,700,322 111,013



COMMERCIAL VEHICLES 223,096 14,889






SMALL PASSENGER CARS 272,853 17,648

478,077 9,059

1,870,276 40,878

RESIDENTIAL

COMMERCIAL/SM-MED INDUSTRIAL

SUBTOTAL



1,392,199 31,819



3,570,598 170,200

Memo Items - Not Counted in Total

LARGE INDUSTRIAL

Type Connections Consumption Energy/Connection Energy (GJ) CO2e (t) Energy (GJ) CO2e (t)

Electricity 2 - kWh - kWh - -

Natural Gas - - GJ - GJ - -

LAND-USE CHANGE

Type Settlement (Ha) Agriculture (Ha) Total Area (Ha) CO2e (t) CO2e (t)

AGRICULTURE AND SETTLEMENT Deforestation 43 1 44 39,340 39,340

AGRICULTURE

Type Methane (t) CO2e (t) CO2e (t)

ENTERIC FERMENTATION Methane 13 tonnes 273 273

LARGE-EMITTERS

CO2e (t) CO2e (t)

HOWE SOUND PULP & PAPER 128,123 128,123



LARGE INDUSTRIAL BUILDINGS - -



Gibsons 2010 Population: 4,416


BUILDINGS


Electricity 2,265 27,003,597 kWh 11,922 kWh 97,213 675

Natural Gas 1,070 50,911 GJ 48 GJ 50,911 2,554

Propane 1 9,335 GJ 9,335 GJ 9,335 570

Heating Oil 1 4,419 GJ 4,419 GJ 4,419 302

Wood 1 17,156 GJ 17,156 GJ 17,156 348


Natural Gas 125 44,558 GJ 356 GJ 44,558 2,235


Electricity 2,722 49,738,295 kWh 179,058 1,243

Natural Gas 1,195 95,469 GJ 95,469 4,789

Propane 1 9,335 GJ 9,335 570

Heating Oil 1 4,419 GJ 4,419 302

Wood 1 17,156 GJ 17,156 348



Gasoline 1,064 1,453,193 L 1,366 L 50,862 3,284

Diesel Fuel 24 35,531 L 1,496 L 1,361 94


Hybrid <10 1,900 L - L 67 4


Gasoline 494 738,233 L 1,496 L 25,838 1,641

Diesel Fuel <10 9,689 L - L 371 26


Hybrid <10 6,722 L - L 235 12

Gasoline 1,617 4,283,432 L 2,648 L 149,920 9,761

Diesel Fuel 51 128,510 L 2,517 L 4,922 340

Other Fuel <10 14,085 L - L 356 22

Hybrid <10 10,885 L - L 381 25

Gasoline 121 397,737 L 3,287 L 13,921 893

Diesel Fuel 130 591,304 L 4,551 L 22,647 1,545

Other Fuel <10 9,665 L - L 245 15



Diesel Fuel 41 449,831 L 11,107 L 17,229 1,175


Gasoline 44 124,539 L 2,862 L 4,359 278

Diesel Fuel 15 51,798 L 3,444 L 1,984 135

Other Fuel <10 3,677 L - L 93 6

Gasoline 71 18,812 L 265 L 658 42



Gasoline 10 30,016 L 2,871 L 1,051 67

Diesel Fuel <10 5,515 L - L 211 14




Gasoline 3,421 7,045,963 L 246,609 15,966

Diesel Fuel 260 1,272,178 L 48,724 3,330

Other Fuel - 27,427 L 694 42

Hybrid - 19,507 L 683 41

Electric - - L - -

SOLID WASTE



Total


Electricity 49,738,295 kWh 179,058 1,243

Natural Gas 95,469 GJ 95,469 4,789

Propane 9,335 GJ 9,335 570


Wood 17,156 GJ 17,156 348

Gasoline 7,045,963 L 246,609 15,966

Diesel Fuel 1,272,178 L 48,724 3,330

Other Fuel 27,427 L 694 42

Hybrid 19,507 L 683 41

Electric - L - -






52,289 3,382



COMMERCIAL VEHICLES

RESIDENTIAL


SUBTOTAL 305,437 7,252



179,034 4,449

36,812 2,452

SUBTOTAL 296,710 19,379

BUS 1,262 82





602,147 29,327

Sechelt 2010 Population: 9,496


BUILDINGS



Natural Gas 2,254 112,753 GJ 50 GJ 112,753 5,656

Propane 1 12,066 GJ 12,066 GJ 12,066 736

Heating Oil 1 5,718 GJ 5,718 GJ 5,718 391

Wood 1 22,229 GJ 22,229 GJ 22,229 451


Natural Gas 168 51,056 GJ 303 GJ 51,056 2,561


Electricity 5,774 100,751,371 kWh 362,705 2,519

Natural Gas 2,423 163,809 GJ 163,809 8,217

Propane 1 12,066 GJ 12,066 736

Heating Oil 1 5,718 GJ 5,718 391

Wood 1 22,229 GJ 22,229 451



Gasoline 1,877 2,606,253 L 1,388 L 91,219 5,881

Diesel Fuel 54 79,043 L 1,473 L 3,027 210


Hybrid <10 4,015 L - L 141 9


Gasoline 988 1,522,217 L 1,541 L 53,278 3,388

Diesel Fuel 16 18,508 L 1,176 L 709 49


Hybrid 18 19,428 L 1,055 L 680 35

Gasoline 3,307 9,001,574 L 2,722 L 315,055 20,477

Diesel Fuel 102 280,706 L 2,764 L 10,751 743

Other Fuel 15 33,798 L 2,286 L 855 52

Hybrid <10 16,169 L - L 566 37

Gasoline 239 768,960 L 3,218 L 26,914 1,726

Diesel Fuel 316 1,394,889 L 4,420 L 53,424 3,645

Other Fuel <10 17,484 L - L 443 27



Diesel Fuel 85 633,249 L 7,432 L 24,253 1,655


Gasoline 53 146,725 L 2,780 L 5,135 328

Diesel Fuel 31 108,950 L 3,542 L 4,173 285

Other Fuel <10 4,313 L - L 109 7

Gasoline 144 38,746 L 270 L 1,356 86



Gasoline <10 9,175 L - L 321 21

Diesel Fuel 24 107,790 L 4,486 L 4,128 282

Other Fuel <10 9,132 L - L 231 14



Gasoline 6,608 14,093,650 L 493,278 31,907

Diesel Fuel 627 2,623,135 L 100,466 6,867

Other Fuel 15 64,728 L 1,638 99

Hybrid 18 39,612 L 1,386 80

Electric - - L - -

SOLID WASTE



Total


Electricity 100,751,371 kWh 362,705 2,519

Natural Gas 163,809 GJ 163,809 8,217

Propane 12,066 GJ 12,066 736


Wood 22,229 GJ 22,229 451

Gasoline 14,093,650 L 493,278 31,907

Diesel Fuel 2,623,135 L 100,466 6,867

Other Fuel 64,728 L 1,638 99

Hybrid 39,612 L 1,386 80

Electric - L - -






94,387 6,100



COMMERCIAL VEHICLES

RESIDENTIAL


SUBTOTAL 566,527 12,314



389,486 8,878

80,780 5,397

SUBTOTAL 596,769 38,954

BUS 4,681 316





1,163,295 57,066

Sechelt Ind Gov Dist 2010 Population: 828


BUILDINGS



Natural Gas 197 9,831 GJ 50 GJ 9,831 493

Propane 1 2,418 GJ 2,418 GJ 2,418 148

Heating Oil 1 1,146 GJ 1,146 GJ 1,146 79

Wood 1 4,457 GJ 4,457 GJ 4,457 90


Natural Gas 15 4,452 GJ 303 GJ 4,452 223


Electricity 473 11,185,713 kWh 40,269 280

Natural Gas 211 14,283 GJ 14,283 716

Propane 1 2,418 GJ 2,418 148

Heating Oil 1 1,146 GJ 1,146 79

Wood 1 4,457 GJ 4,457 90



Gasoline 164 227,251 L 1,388 L 7,954 513

Diesel Fuel 5 6,892 L 1,473 L 264 18


Hybrid <10 350 L - L 12 1


Gasoline 86 132,729 L 1,541 L 4,646 295

Diesel Fuel 1 1,614 L 1,176 L 62 4


Hybrid 2 1,694 L 1,055 L 59 3

Gasoline 288 784,889 L 2,722 L 27,471 1,785

Diesel Fuel 9 24,476 L 2,764 L 937 65

Other Fuel 1 2,947 L 2,286 L 75 5

Hybrid <10 1,410 L - L 49 3

Gasoline 21 67,049 L 3,218 L 2,347 150

Diesel Fuel 28 121,627 L 4,420 L 4,658 318

Other Fuel <10 1,525 L - L 39 2



Diesel Fuel 7 55,216 L 7,432 L 2,115 144


Gasoline 5 12,794 L 2,780 L 448 29

Diesel Fuel 3 9,500 L 3,542 L 364 25

Other Fuel <10 376 L - L 10 1

Gasoline 13 3,378 L 270 L 118 8



Gasoline <10 800 L - L 28 2

Diesel Fuel 2 9,399 L 4,486 L 360 25

Other Fuel <10 796 L - L 20 1



Gasoline 576 1,228,890 L 43,011 2,782

Diesel Fuel 55 228,723 L 8,760 599

Other Fuel 1 5,644 L 143 9

Hybrid 2 3,454 L 121 7

Electric - - L - -

SOLID WASTE


COMMUNITY SOLID WASTE Solid Waste Waste-In-Place 359 505 505

Total


Electricity 11,185,713 kWh 40,269 280

Natural Gas 14,283 GJ 14,283 716

Propane 2,418 GJ 2,418 148


Wood 4,457 GJ 4,457 90

Gasoline 1,228,890 L 43,011 2,782

Diesel Fuel 228,723 L 8,760 599

Other Fuel 5,644 L 143 9

Hybrid 3,454 L 121 7

Electric - L - -

Solid Waste 359 tonnes 505





8,230 532

LARGE PASSENGER CARS 4,767 303


COMMERCIAL VEHICLES

RESIDENTIAL

COMMERCIAL/SM-MED INDUSTRIAL 25,041 366

SUBTOTAL 62,573 1,313



37,532 947

7,044 471

SUBTOTAL 52,035 3,397

BUS 408 28

MOTORHOMES 821 54




114,608 5,215

Unincorporated areas 2010 Population: 15,244


BUILDINGS



Natural Gas 1,865 104,652 GJ 56 GJ 104,652 5,249

Propane 1 70,147 GJ 70,147 GJ 70,147 4,280

Heating Oil 1 33,263 GJ 33,263 GJ 33,263 2,275

Wood 1 129,407 GJ 129,407 GJ 129,407 2,627


Natural Gas 71 32,734 GJ 461 GJ 32,734 1,642


Electricity 9,398 157,093,515 kWh 565,537 3,927

Natural Gas 1,936 137,386 GJ 137,386 6,891

Propane 1 70,147 GJ 70,147 4,280

Heating Oil 1 33,263 GJ 33,263 2,275

Wood 1 129,407 GJ 129,407 2,627



Gasoline 2,351 3,221,751 L 1,370 L 112,761 7,277

Diesel Fuel 90 131,318 L 1,466 L 5,029 348


Hybrid <10 4,455 L - L 156 10


Gasoline 1,123 1,761,641 L 1,569 L 61,657 3,898

Diesel Fuel 40 45,477 L 1,147 L 1,742 120

Other Fuel <10 384 L - L 10 1

Hybrid 24 25,668 L 1,072 L 898 52

Gasoline 4,376 11,591,076 L 2,649 L 405,688 26,392

Diesel Fuel 151 408,589 L 2,713 L 15,649 1,081

Other Fuel 17 31,620 L 1,814 L 800 48

Hybrid 18 36,251 L 2,067 L 1,269 82

Gasoline 334 1,004,552 L 3,006 L 35,159 2,255

Diesel Fuel 387 1,638,093 L 4,230 L 62,739 4,280

Other Fuel 11 22,194 L 2,035 L 562 34

Hybrid <10 - L - L - -


Diesel Fuel 67 837,990 L 12,422 L 32,095 2,190


Gasoline 98 271,702 L 2,786 L 9,510 606

Diesel Fuel 48 171,327 L 3,590 L 6,562 448

Other Fuel <10 3,885 L - L 98 6

Gasoline 221 59,577 L 270 L 2,085 133



Gasoline <10 4,709 L - L 165 11

Diesel Fuel <10 4,538 L - L 174 12




Gasoline 8,503 17,915,009 L 627,025 40,572

Diesel Fuel 782 3,237,332 L 123,990 8,479

Other Fuel 28 58,082 L 1,470 89

Hybrid 41 66,374 L 2,323 144

Electric - - L - -

SOLID WASTE



Total


Electricity 157,093,515 kWh 565,537 3,927

Natural Gas 137,386 GJ 137,386 6,891

Propane 70,147 GJ 70,147 4,280

Heating Oil 33,263 GJ 33,263 2,275

Wood 129,407 GJ 129,407 2,627

Gasoline 17,915,009 L 627,025 40,572

Diesel Fuel 3,237,332 L 123,990 8,479

Other Fuel 58,082 L 1,470 89

Hybrid 66,374 L 2,323 144

Electric - L - -






117,947 7,635



COMMERCIAL VEHICLES

RESIDENTIAL


SUBTOTAL 935,740 20,000



786,148 17,547

98,460 6,569

SUBTOTAL 754,808 49,284

BUS 339 22





1,690,548 78,593

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User Input and Assumptions

Instructions

Historic (estimate) Forecast

Population 1996 2001 2006 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

Population (Historic values are helpful but not necessary) 24195 26094 28142 29896 32206 34695 37377 40266 43377 46730 50341 54232

Population annual rate of change, % 1.5% 1.5% 1.5% 1.5% 1.5% 1.5% 1.5% 1.5% 1.5%

Retail Energy Prices, 2010 $ CAD (use "real" prices, meaning no inflation included) 1996 2001 2006/07 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

Electricity, $/GJ Electricity 20 23 26 28 29 29 29 29 29

Natural Gas, $/GJ Natural Gas 15 15 16 17 17 17 18 18 18

Heating Oil, $/GJ Heating Oil 22 24 26 27 27 28 28 29 29

Propane, $/GJ Propane 25 28 29 30 31 31 32 32 32

Wood, $/GJ Wood 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12

Gasoline, $/GJ Gasoline 28 33 34 35 36 36 36 37 37

Diesel, $/GJ Diesel 25 28 29 30 30 31 31 31 31

Ethanol, $/GJ Ethanol 43 57 58 60 61 62 60 57 55

Biodiesel, $/GJ Biodiesel 37 48 48 48 49 49 50 50 50


Residential Sector Inputs and Assumptions 1996 2001 2006/07 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

People per household 2.33 2.35 2.31 2.3 2.3 2.3 2.3 2.3 2.3 2.3 2.3 2.3

Number of households 10390 11085 12180 12939 13939 15016 16177 17427 18774 20225 21788 23472

Current average size of dwellings, m2 (BC average in 2007 was 147 m

2) 147

• Input data and assumptions into the white highlighted cells. All other cells will update automatically based on current inputs.

• Hold the cursor over each input row title with a red tab in the corner to see additional instructions and information. The CIMS Community user documentation describes each input in more detail.

• Note that the inputs provided here apply to both the reference and policy scenarios. However, some policies may change some of the parameters for the policy scenario (e.g. Land use may reduce floor space from reference

assumption)

Restore Default Values

Current average size of dwellings, m2 (BC average in 2007 was 147 m

2) 147

Annual rate of change for average floor space per home (%/yr) 0.3% 1.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Average floor space per home (m2) 130 132 146 147 147 147 147 147 147 147 147 147

Total Floor space, 1000m2 1352 1467 1775 1903 2050 2208 2379 2563 2761 2974 3204 3452

Share of dwellings by building type

detached 83% 84% 83% 83% 83% 83% 83% 83% 83% 83% 83% 83%

attached 7% 7% 7% 7% 7% 7% 7% 7% 7% 7% 7% 7%

apartment 5% 5% 6% 6% 6% 6% 6% 6% 6% 6% 6% 6%

mobile 4% 5% 4% 4% 4% 4% 4% 4% 4% 4% 4% 4%

Total 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%

In what year, if at all, is/was natural gas available to homes? 2000 or earlier

Is wood a primary fuel for space heating (i.e., can gain new market share) Yes

Air conditioned floor space in community relative to British Columbian average 1.0

Energy use per area of cooled floor space relative to British Columbian average 1.0

Fraction of floor space with air conditioning (%) 6% 10% 18% 23% 25% 28% 30% 32% 34% 34% 34% 34%

Approximate fraction of residential electricity used for air conditioning on annual basis 0.4%


Personal Transportation Sector Inputs and Assumptions 1996 2001 2006/07 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

Annual % change in travel per person 0.00%

Restore Default Values

Annual travel per person (1000 km/person/yr) 13.7 13.7 13.7 13.7 13.7 13.7 13.7 13.7 13.7 13.7

Total transportation demand (1000 km/yr) 3.9E+05 4.1E+05 4.4E+05 4.7E+05 5.1E+05 5.5E+05 5.9E+05 6.4E+05 6.9E+05 7.4E+05

Estimate of personal vehicle kilometres travelled (vkt) relative to CEEI data 1.0

base year vkt (1000 km) 295,175

base year energy consumption from personal vehicles (TJ) 1,307

Estimate of length of transit trips relative to personal vehicle trips 1.00

Estimate of length of walk/cycle trips relative to personal vehicle trips 0.25

% person km travelled by mode

Single occupant vehicle 56% 56% 60% Mode share forecast from 2010 onwards are simulated

multiple occupant vehicle 36% 36% 32% .

transit 5% 5% 6% .

active transport 3% 3% 3% .


Freight Transportation Sector Inputs and Assumptions 1996 2001 2006/07 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

Annual % change in freight transport per person 0.0%

Annual freight per person (frieght km/person/yr) 1113 1113 1113 1113 1113 1113 1113 1113 1113 1113

Total freight activity (1000 vehicle km/yr) 3.1E+04 3.3E+04 3.6E+04 3.9E+04 4.2E+04 4.5E+04 4.8E+04 5.2E+04 5.6E+04 6.0E+04

Total freight activity (1000 tonne km/yr) assuming BC average payloads 6.3E+04 6.6E+04 7.2E+04 7.7E+04 8.3E+04 8.9E+04 9.6E+04 1.0E+05 1.1E+05 1.2E+05

Annual freight per person (tonne km/person/yr) assuming BC average payloads 2223 2223 2223 2223 2223 2223 2223 2223 2223 2223


Commercial/Institutional/Small Industrial Sector Inputs and Assumptions 1996 2001 2006/07 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

Annual % change commercial/institutional floorspace per person 0.0%

Commercial/institutional floorspace per person (m2). 2007 value is adjusted during calibration 14.4 14.4 14.4 14.4 14.4 14.4 14.4 14.4 14.4 14.4

Total commercial/institutional floorspace (1000 m2) 405 430 463 499 538 579 624 672 724 780

Share of floorspace by building activity (%)

Wholesale Trade 7%

Retail Trade 17%

Transportation and Warehousing 5%

Information and Cultural Industries 2%Information and Cultural Industries 2%

Offices 39%

Educational Services 12%

Healthcare and Social Assistance 8%

Arts Entertainment and Recreation 3%

Accomodation and Food Services 6%

Other Services 2%

Total 100.0%

Year natural gas available to buildings? See Residential Inputs. 2000 or earlier


Municipal Solid Waste Sector Inputs and Assumptions 1996 2001 2006/07 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

Annual production of solid waste per person (tonnes/year/person) 0.49

Annual production of solid waste (tonnes/year) 11922 12858 13867 14732 15870 17097 18418 19841 21375 23027 24806 26723

Estimate of annual precipitation at landfill (mm/yr) 1001 to 2000

methane generation rate (k) based on precipitation estimate 0.071

Fraction of landfill with gas capture or utilization 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%

Efficiency of gas capture 50%

If landfill gas is captured, is it flared or used for electricity generation? flared

Fraction of organic matter separated from waste 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%

Calibrated landfilled waste and diverted organic matter, attributed to the community (tonnes) 295648 339842 419192 504675 596764 695970 802843 917976 1042007 1175623

Approximate landfilled waste (tonnes) 295648 339842 419192 504675 596764 695970 802843 917976 1042007 1175623

Approximate organics diverted(tonnes) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Community Energy and Emissions Inventory Update · Community Energy and Emissions Inventory Update...

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