Common Sense Is Not So Common – Some Leasons Learned Using Simulations for Problem Solving

Charlie Voss

Golder Associates Inc.

October 25, 2007

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Topics

“GoldSim to the rescue” or “pass me the hammer”

Collaborative model development Stochastic is fantastic – not Verification, calibration,

documentation and other “tions” Presenting your masterpiece GoldSim karma

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Before You Start

GoldSim may not always be the best solution

Don’t force or let your clients force you into using GoldSim

Save it for complex, dynamic, stochastic simulation problems

Sell the approach, not the software

GoldSim

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Model Development

Top-down – right way to go, often hard to practice

Collaborative development You should have taken more psyche

courses The quality of the model depends on the

skill and purpose of the modelers Find a way to give everyone some

ownership in the model Look out for the “quiet” guy Critical in a regulatory environment

Keep an eye on the data commitment

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Probabilistic – Are you sure?

Results are often incomprehensible to your audience

Too much certainty in the uncertainty?

Correlations often difficult to quantify Deterministic with sensitivity

analysis may be a better approach

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Verification and Documentation

Spreadsheets are your friends What time is it? Fortran, GoldSim – some things

don’t change Start explaining model results early Incorporate links to report sections,

spreadsheet checks, etc.

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Presenting Results

GoldSim or Lunesta? Never underestimate your graphics

department – everyone can relate to graphical representations

Bar charts and tables – old school but cool

Unless you’re modeling a parking lot!

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My favorite GoldSim Project

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Giving back

Look for opportunities to get involved with local schools and educators

You may benefit more than those you’re helping