Commodity Weekly Market News Updated by Trifid Research
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Transcript of Commodity Weekly Market News Updated by Trifid Research
14 APRIL – 17 APRIL 2014
W E E K L Y
R
E
P
O
R
T
Blow by Blow
On
Bullions,
Base metals,
Energy…
WWW.TRIFIDRESEARCH.COM
MAJOR EVENTS
Gold rose to its highest price in more than two weeks on Thursday, boosted by a sharp
pullback in U.S. equities and follow-through buying a day after minutes from the
Federal Reserve's latest policy meeting revealed its cautious approach in future
interest-rate hikes. Gold came uncoupled in the afternoon from U.S. equities, stalling
even as the S&P 500 index accelerated losses. The S&P, which fell 2 percent for the
day, has given back all its gains to turn negative for the year. The yellow metal largely
ignored data signaling a stronger U.S. job market, with the number of Americans filing
new applications for unemployment benefits tumbling last week to the lowest level in
nearly seven years. It changed the dynamic of the gold market because now the fear
of Fed raising rates has been pushed back further into the future.
On Thursday, U.S. 10-year Treasury yields dropped toward 2.6 percent. Returns from
U.S. bonds are closely watched by the gold market, given that the metal pays no
interest. Prices in top buyer China slipped back to a discount of about $2 an ounce on
London prices on Thursday from a premium in the previous session. Also reflecting
weak physical demand, gold stocks sitting in U.S. exchange warehouses are at a 10-
month high.
West Texas Intermediate crude climbed to a five-week high as U.S. consumer
confidence rose in April while gasoline demand grew. Brent’s premium to WTI
shrank.
WTI’s weekly advance was the biggest this year. Preliminary index of sentiment
climbed to 82.6, the highest level since July. Gasoline demand averaged over four
weeks jumped to the most in three months April 4, the Energy Information
Administration said yesterday. Prices reduced gains as U.S. equities dropped. The
Brent-WTI gap contracted as Libya was poised to boost oil shipments. WTI for May
delivery rose 34 cents, or 0.3 percent, to $103.74 a barrel on the New York
Mercantile Exchange, the highest settlement since March 3. The volume of all futures
traded was 31 percent above the 100-day average at 3:56 p.m. Prices advanced 2.6
percent this week. Brent for May settlement slid 13 cents to end the session at
$107.33 a barrel on the London-based ICE Futures Europe exchange. Brent gained 0.6
percent this week. The European benchmark crude was at a $3.59 premium to WTI,
the narrowest since Sept. 19.
WTI Oil Rises to
Five-Week High
on Consumer
Sentiment.
Nickel Posts
Longest Rally in
42 Months on
Supply Concern.
Nickel prices rose, capping the longest rally more than three years, as Indonesia’s ban
on ore exports limits supplies, triggering forecasts for a global shortfall.
The ban alone is likely to shift the nickel market from structural oversupply to a
balanced outcome this year, with sizable deficits probably over coming years. Stronger
global growth outlook is likely to drive nickel usage in stainless and non-stainless
sectors. The price rose to a 13-month high, while stockpiles monitored by the London
Metal Exchange posted the biggest weekly drop since June 2012. Tensions between
Ukraine and Russia, the home to OAO GMK Norilsk Nickel, the world’s biggest
producer of the refined metal, also may threaten shipments. This year, nickel may top
$19,000. The price has jumped 25 percent in 2014. Indonesia banned shipments of
raw ore in January.
On the Comex in New York, copper futures for May delivery fell 0.1 percent to $3.0415
a pound. Earlier, the price reached $3.08, the highest for a most-active contract since
March 7. In London, aluminum, lead, zinc and tin dropped, while copper gained 0.2
percent.
Gold extends
rally after Fed
minutes as
stocks tumble.
E C O N O M I C C A L E N D E R
DATE & TIME DESCRIPTION FORECAST PREVIOUS
Apr 14 6:00pm Core Retail Sales m/m 0.5% 0.3%
6:00pm Retail Sales m/m 0.8% 0.3%
7:30pm Business Inventories m/m 0.5% 0.4%
10:15pm FOMC Member Tarullo Speaks
Apr 15 6:00pm Core CPI m/m 0.1% 0.1%
6:00pm CPI m/m 0.1% 0.1%
6:00pm Empire State Manufacturing Index 8.2 5.6
6:15pm Fed Chair Yellen Speaks
6:30pm TIC Long-Term Purchases 14.6B 7.3B
7:30pm NAHB Housing Market Index 50 47
Apr 16 12:30am FOMC Member Plosser Speaks
5:30am FOMC Member Kocherlakota Speaks
5:30pm FOMC Member Stein Speaks
6:00pm Building Permits 1.00M 1.01M
6:00pm Housing Starts 0.97M 0.91M
6:45pm Capacity Utilization Rate 78.8% 78.4%
6:45pm Industrial Production m/m -127.5B -193.5B
8:00pm Crude Oil Inventories 0.5% 0.6%
9:45pm Fed Chair Yellen Speaks 4.0M
10:55pm FOMC Member Fisher Speaks
11:30pm Beige Book
Apr 17 6:00pm Unemployment Claims 316K 300K
7:30pm Philly Fed Manufacturing Index 9.6 9.0
8:00pm Natural Gas Storage 4B
S1 S2 S3 R1 R2 R3
28580 28245 27875 28890 29220 29500
S1 S2 S3 R1 R2 R3
42300 40650 38500 44000 45200 46500
T E C H N I C A L V I E W
MCX GOLD last week traded above
23.6% retracement, found resistance
of 38.2% retracement and also closed
around it. Now, on higher side if it
maintains above 28900 then next
resistance may be seen in the range of
29100-29250. On other hand if it
sustains at lower levels and trades
below 28350 then bearishness may
take it towards the support level of
27800.
S T R A T E G Y Better strategy in MCX GOLD is to buy
above 28920 for the targets of 29220-
29500 with stop loss of 28300.
PIVOT TABLE
G O L D
PIVOT TABLE
S I L V E R
T E C H N I C A L V I E W
MCX SILVER showed sideways
movement on daily charts and still
continuing with higher highs sessions
which indicates weakness is still
prevailing in it. Now, if it sustain below
42300 then next support will be seen
around 40500. On higher side 44000
will act as important resistance level
maintaining above which may lead it
towards the next resistance level of
45000.
S T R A T E G Y Better strategy in MCX SILVER at this
point of time is to sell below 42300 for
targets of 41000-40500, with stop loss of
44000.
C R U D E O I L
C O P P E R
…
S1 S2 S3 R1 R2 R3
6200 6040 5900 6330 6460 6585
S1 S2 S3 R1 R2 R3
399 391.80 386 412 421.50 429
T E C H N I C A L V I E W
MCX Copper on daily charts witnessed
consolidation phase and took
resistance of 23.6% retracement but
unable to close above its important
resistance i.e. 410. Now, if it maintains
above 412 then only some bullish
movement is expected towards the
next resistance level of 420. If it trades
below 400 then further bearishness
can be seen which may drag it towards
support range of392-385.
S T R A T E G Y Better strategy in MCX CRUDEOIL is to buy
above 6330 for the target of 6450, with
stop loss of 6190.
PIVOT TABLE
T E C H N I C A L V I E W
MCX Crude oil last week showed
upward movement and broke the
23.6% retracement level and closed
above the trend line from all time high.
If the upward movements continues
then it may find resistance in the range
of 6450-6550. On other hand if it took
reversal from trendline then 6140 will
act as major support for it.
S T R A T E G Y Better strategy in MCX COPPER is to sell
on highs, with stop loss of 412 for the
targets of 392-385.
PIVOT TABLE