Commodity Weekly Market News Updated by Trifid Research

6
14 APRIL 17 APRIL 2014 W E E K L Y R E P O R T Blow by Blow On Bullions, Base metals, Energy… WWW.TRIFIDRESEARCH.COM

Transcript of Commodity Weekly Market News Updated by Trifid Research

Page 1: Commodity Weekly Market News Updated by Trifid Research

14 APRIL – 17 APRIL 2014

W E E K L Y

R

E

P

O

R

T

Blow by Blow

On

Bullions,

Base metals,

Energy…

WWW.TRIFIDRESEARCH.COM

Page 2: Commodity Weekly Market News Updated by Trifid Research

MAJOR EVENTS

Gold rose to its highest price in more than two weeks on Thursday, boosted by a sharp

pullback in U.S. equities and follow-through buying a day after minutes from the

Federal Reserve's latest policy meeting revealed its cautious approach in future

interest-rate hikes. Gold came uncoupled in the afternoon from U.S. equities, stalling

even as the S&P 500 index accelerated losses. The S&P, which fell 2 percent for the

day, has given back all its gains to turn negative for the year. The yellow metal largely

ignored data signaling a stronger U.S. job market, with the number of Americans filing

new applications for unemployment benefits tumbling last week to the lowest level in

nearly seven years. It changed the dynamic of the gold market because now the fear

of Fed raising rates has been pushed back further into the future.

On Thursday, U.S. 10-year Treasury yields dropped toward 2.6 percent. Returns from

U.S. bonds are closely watched by the gold market, given that the metal pays no

interest. Prices in top buyer China slipped back to a discount of about $2 an ounce on

London prices on Thursday from a premium in the previous session. Also reflecting

weak physical demand, gold stocks sitting in U.S. exchange warehouses are at a 10-

month high.

West Texas Intermediate crude climbed to a five-week high as U.S. consumer

confidence rose in April while gasoline demand grew. Brent’s premium to WTI

shrank.

WTI’s weekly advance was the biggest this year. Preliminary index of sentiment

climbed to 82.6, the highest level since July. Gasoline demand averaged over four

weeks jumped to the most in three months April 4, the Energy Information

Administration said yesterday. Prices reduced gains as U.S. equities dropped. The

Brent-WTI gap contracted as Libya was poised to boost oil shipments. WTI for May

delivery rose 34 cents, or 0.3 percent, to $103.74 a barrel on the New York

Mercantile Exchange, the highest settlement since March 3. The volume of all futures

traded was 31 percent above the 100-day average at 3:56 p.m. Prices advanced 2.6

percent this week. Brent for May settlement slid 13 cents to end the session at

$107.33 a barrel on the London-based ICE Futures Europe exchange. Brent gained 0.6

percent this week. The European benchmark crude was at a $3.59 premium to WTI,

the narrowest since Sept. 19.

WTI Oil Rises to

Five-Week High

on Consumer

Sentiment.

Nickel Posts

Longest Rally in

42 Months on

Supply Concern.

Nickel prices rose, capping the longest rally more than three years, as Indonesia’s ban

on ore exports limits supplies, triggering forecasts for a global shortfall.

The ban alone is likely to shift the nickel market from structural oversupply to a

balanced outcome this year, with sizable deficits probably over coming years. Stronger

global growth outlook is likely to drive nickel usage in stainless and non-stainless

sectors. The price rose to a 13-month high, while stockpiles monitored by the London

Metal Exchange posted the biggest weekly drop since June 2012. Tensions between

Ukraine and Russia, the home to OAO GMK Norilsk Nickel, the world’s biggest

producer of the refined metal, also may threaten shipments. This year, nickel may top

$19,000. The price has jumped 25 percent in 2014. Indonesia banned shipments of

raw ore in January.

On the Comex in New York, copper futures for May delivery fell 0.1 percent to $3.0415

a pound. Earlier, the price reached $3.08, the highest for a most-active contract since

March 7. In London, aluminum, lead, zinc and tin dropped, while copper gained 0.2

percent.

Gold extends

rally after Fed

minutes as

stocks tumble.

Page 3: Commodity Weekly Market News Updated by Trifid Research

E C O N O M I C C A L E N D E R

DATE & TIME DESCRIPTION FORECAST PREVIOUS

Apr 14 6:00pm Core Retail Sales m/m 0.5% 0.3%

6:00pm Retail Sales m/m 0.8% 0.3%

7:30pm Business Inventories m/m 0.5% 0.4%

10:15pm FOMC Member Tarullo Speaks

Apr 15 6:00pm Core CPI m/m 0.1% 0.1%

6:00pm CPI m/m 0.1% 0.1%

6:00pm Empire State Manufacturing Index 8.2 5.6

6:15pm Fed Chair Yellen Speaks

6:30pm TIC Long-Term Purchases 14.6B 7.3B

7:30pm NAHB Housing Market Index 50 47

Apr 16 12:30am FOMC Member Plosser Speaks

5:30am FOMC Member Kocherlakota Speaks

5:30pm FOMC Member Stein Speaks

6:00pm Building Permits 1.00M 1.01M

6:00pm Housing Starts 0.97M 0.91M

6:45pm Capacity Utilization Rate 78.8% 78.4%

6:45pm Industrial Production m/m -127.5B -193.5B

8:00pm Crude Oil Inventories 0.5% 0.6%

9:45pm Fed Chair Yellen Speaks 4.0M

10:55pm FOMC Member Fisher Speaks

11:30pm Beige Book

Apr 17 6:00pm Unemployment Claims 316K 300K

7:30pm Philly Fed Manufacturing Index 9.6 9.0

8:00pm Natural Gas Storage 4B

Page 4: Commodity Weekly Market News Updated by Trifid Research

S1 S2 S3 R1 R2 R3

28580 28245 27875 28890 29220 29500

S1 S2 S3 R1 R2 R3

42300 40650 38500 44000 45200 46500

T E C H N I C A L V I E W

MCX GOLD last week traded above

23.6% retracement, found resistance

of 38.2% retracement and also closed

around it. Now, on higher side if it

maintains above 28900 then next

resistance may be seen in the range of

29100-29250. On other hand if it

sustains at lower levels and trades

below 28350 then bearishness may

take it towards the support level of

27800.

S T R A T E G Y Better strategy in MCX GOLD is to buy

above 28920 for the targets of 29220-

29500 with stop loss of 28300.

PIVOT TABLE

G O L D

PIVOT TABLE

S I L V E R

T E C H N I C A L V I E W

MCX SILVER showed sideways

movement on daily charts and still

continuing with higher highs sessions

which indicates weakness is still

prevailing in it. Now, if it sustain below

42300 then next support will be seen

around 40500. On higher side 44000

will act as important resistance level

maintaining above which may lead it

towards the next resistance level of

45000.

S T R A T E G Y Better strategy in MCX SILVER at this

point of time is to sell below 42300 for

targets of 41000-40500, with stop loss of

44000.

Page 5: Commodity Weekly Market News Updated by Trifid Research

C R U D E O I L

C O P P E R

S1 S2 S3 R1 R2 R3

6200 6040 5900 6330 6460 6585

S1 S2 S3 R1 R2 R3

399 391.80 386 412 421.50 429

T E C H N I C A L V I E W

MCX Copper on daily charts witnessed

consolidation phase and took

resistance of 23.6% retracement but

unable to close above its important

resistance i.e. 410. Now, if it maintains

above 412 then only some bullish

movement is expected towards the

next resistance level of 420. If it trades

below 400 then further bearishness

can be seen which may drag it towards

support range of392-385.

S T R A T E G Y Better strategy in MCX CRUDEOIL is to buy

above 6330 for the target of 6450, with

stop loss of 6190.

PIVOT TABLE

T E C H N I C A L V I E W

MCX Crude oil last week showed

upward movement and broke the

23.6% retracement level and closed

above the trend line from all time high.

If the upward movements continues

then it may find resistance in the range

of 6450-6550. On other hand if it took

reversal from trendline then 6140 will

act as major support for it.

S T R A T E G Y Better strategy in MCX COPPER is to sell

on highs, with stop loss of 412 for the

targets of 392-385.

PIVOT TABLE

Page 6: Commodity Weekly Market News Updated by Trifid Research

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