Commodity Weeakly Basics Tutorial

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  • 14 JULY 18 JULY 2014 W E E K L Y R E P O R T Blow by Blow On Bullions, Base metals, Energy WWW.TRIFIDRESEARCH.COM
  • MAJOR EVENTS MCX Gold futures are trading with losses today as traders booked some profits after massive gains in last two sessions. The yellow metal rallied in global markets on worries pertaining to the Portugal banking troubles. A rather disappointing decision by India to not cut import duties on the yellow metal also boosted sentiments as the COMEX Gold ran up to its four month highs near $1350 per ounce. The metal is quoting at 1338 per ounce, down 1.20 per ounce on the day. MCX Gold is trading at Rs 28370 per 10 grams, down Rs 126 per 10 grams on the day. The MCX Gold futures shot up on the twin effects of rally in global prices and a status quo on gold import duties. The benchmark MCX Gold futures for August soared well above Rs 28000 per 10-gram levels. Buying picked up after this critical level was broken in a flash. The metal has generally had a good week, amid expectations the Federal Reserve will keep rates on hold for an extended period of time after the bank's bond-buying program ends. On data event, US initial jobless claims and continuing claims are slated to release later today. According to the minutes of its June meeting revealed on Wednesday, the Federal Reserve plans to completely unwind its asset purchase plan in October as long the economy continues to pick up. New U.S. pipelines and a revival in Libyan supply are increasing the likelihood that oil prices will slump through year-end after climbing in the first six months. Wall Street analysts tracked by Bloomberg predict West Texas Intermediate oil will average $100 a barrel in the fourth quarter, down 5.1 percent from June 30, while Brent drops 4.8 percent to $107. Violence in Iraq sent Brent to $115.71 in June, its highest level since September, on concern supplies would be disrupted. Brent is poised to decline in part on increased output in Libya as key export terminals were reopened. In the U.S., traders are focused on supplies at Cushing, Oklahoma, the delivery point for the WTI futures contract. Tallgrass Energy Partners LP plans to complete the conversion of the Pony Express pipeline to carry crude to Cushing from Wyoming. Enbridge Inc.s Flanagan South will connect to the hub from Illinois. Prepare for Oil to Keep Falling on Libya to U.S. Supply Copper Drops in London as Demand in China Seen Weakening. Copper declined in London for the fourth time this week as inventories expanded amid signs of lower demand for the metal as loan collateral in China, the worlds biggest user. Stockpiles in warehouses tracked by the Shanghai Futures Exchange gained for the third straight week to the highest since June 5. Chinas imports of unwrought copper and copper products fell in June to the lowest since April 2013, data showed yesterday. Inbound shipments will weaken in July amid the Qingdao port probe into inventories used in financing. Copper looks a bit toppy to us, and we would not be surprised to see a modest retrenchment heading into next week,.Copper for delivery in three months fell 0.1 percent to settle at $7,156 a metric ton ($3.25 a pound) at 5:50 p.m. on the London Metal Exchange. Zinc rose in London, capping a fourth straight weekly advance that was the longest rally since mid-April. Stockpiles monitored by the LME fell to the lowest since December 2010. Nickel, aluminum, lead and tin also gained in London.On the Comex in New York, copper futures for September delivery rose 0.1 percent to $3.269 a pound. MCX Gold Eases After Recent Rally, Profit Selling Hurts Sentiments.
  • E C O N O M I C C A L E N D E R DATE & TIME DESCRIPTION FORECAST PREVIOUS July 15 6:00pm Core Retail Sales m/m 0.5% 0.1% 6:00pm Retail Sales m/m 0.6% 0.3% 6:00pm Empire State Manufacturing Index 17.4 19.3 6:00pm Import Prices m/m 0.5% 0.1% 7:30pm Fed Chair Yellen Testifies 7:30pm Business Inventories m/m 0.6% 0.6% July 16 6:00pm PPI m/m 0.2% -0.2% 6:00pm Core PPI m/m 0.3% -0.1% 6:30pm TIC Long-Term Purchases 27.4B -24.2B 6:45pm Capacity Utilization Rate 79.4% 79.1% 6:45pm Industrial Production m/m 0.4% 0.6% 7:30pm Fed Chair Yellen Testifies 7:30pm NAHB Housing Market Index 51 49 8:00pm Crude Oil Inventories -2.4M 9:30pm FOMC Member Fisher Speaks 11:30pm Beige Book July 17 6:00pm Building Permits 1.04M 0.99M 6:00pm Unemployment Claims 310K 304K 6:00pm Housing Starts 1.02M 1.00M 7:30pm Philly Fed Manufacturing Index 15.6 17.8 8:00pm Natural Gas Storage 93B July 18 7:25pm Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment 83.5 82.5 7:25pm Prelim UoM Inflation Expectations 3.1% 7:30pm CB Leading Index m/m 0.6% 0.5%
  • S1 S2 S3 R1 R2 R3 28130 27810 27450 28680 29025 29390 S1 S2 S3 R1 R2 R3 45550 44300 42945 46600 47880 49155 T E C H N I C A L V I E W MCX GOLD showed bullish movement on budget day due to unchanged import duty and also gave the breakout of trendline and closed above 61.8% retracement. Now, if it maintains above 28600 then next resistance may be seen around 29000. On other hand if it sustains below 28150 then bearish movement may take it towards the next support level of 27800. S T R A T E G Y Better strategy in MCX GOLD is to buy above 28600 for the targets of 29000- 29500 with stop loss of 27850. PIVOT TABLE G O L D PIVOT TABLE S I L V E R T E C H N I C A L V I E W MCX SILVER on daily charts last week traded around upper band of channel pattern and gave breakout on Indian Union Budget session. Now if this bull rally continues and maintains above 46400 then next hurdle is seen around 38.2% retracement i.e. 47300 above which 48350 will seen as major resistance. Contrary if some correction happens on lower side then 45300 will act as important support level. S T R A T E G Y Better strategy in MCX SILVER at this point of time is to buy on dips for the target of 47000-47400, with stop loss of 44900.
  • C R U D E O I L C O P P E R S1 S2 S3 R1 R2 R3 6015 5935 5860 6160 6255 6350 S1 S2 S3 R1 R2 R3 430.50 423.15 415.30 438.15 444.45 451.40 T E C H N I C A L V I E W MCX Copper on daily charts showed choppy movement, and traded around 38.2% retracement i.e. 438. Now, if bullish movement continues and maintains above 438 then next resistance is seen around 446. On other hand if some correction occurs then 433 will act as important support for it below this next support level is seen around 425. S T R A T E G Y Better strategy in MCX CRUDEOIL is to sell on highs for the targets of 5950-5900, with stop loss of 6220. PIVOT TABLE T E C H N I C A L V I E W MCX Crude oil showed downward movement and major trendline has been broken and market closed below the trendline . Now, if it sustain below this trend line then market can countiune downward movement to the 5935 it is a major bottom and market is holding this support from the starting of year 2014. If market will correct to upside then it will found resistance at 6184. S T R A T E G Y Better strategy in MCX COPPER is to buy above 439, with stop loss of 429 for the targets of 447-450. PIVOT TABLE
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