Commercial Property Value Webinar
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A I t d ti t th An I ntroduc tion to the Economics Center’ s Commer cial Property Value Forecast Model E i C t Economics Center University of Cincinnati
description
The Economics Center created an analytical tool to forecast commercial property values and TIF revenues for TIF districts. This tool is simple and dynamic, requiring a minimum amount of user input but still flexible in constructing optimistic and pessimistic forecasts to approximate a variety of underlying conditions.
Transcript of Commercial Property Value Webinar
A I t d ti t thAn Introduction to the Economics Center’s Commercial co o cs Ce te s Co e c aProperty Value Forecast Model
E i C tEconomics CenterUniversity of Cincinnati
What is Innovative about Our Model?
Developed specifically for your community, based on local data (Underlying model can be updated on a 3- year cycle)
Requires minimal User Input
User can “force” a current year estimate before updated property value data are available– Forced estimate carries through 10-year projections– Forced estimate carries through 10 year projections
User may also adjust the model to account for out-of-trend changes prior to updating of underlying model
Produce forecasts for various conditions
How Our Model WorksHow Our Model Works
Model InputModel InputCurrent Year 2011
Taxing District 1 Taxing District 2
Effective Millage 60 52
Proportion TIF 85.00% 75.00%
Adjustment Factor 0.12 0.00Adjustment Factor 0.12 0.00
Actual Residential Value Actual Commercial (TIF total) Value
Reporting Year Taxing District 1 Taxing District 2 Taxing District 1 Taxing District 2
2006 $ 72,966,980 $ 296,316,294 $ 95,630,884 $ 64,307,664
2007 $ 75,301,923 $ 311,132,108 $ 101,368,738 $ 70,738,431
2008 $ 77 711 585 $ 326 688 714 $ 107 450 862 $ 77 812 2742008 $ 77,711,585 $ 326,688,714 $ 107,450,862 $ 77,812,274
2009 $ 80,198,356 $ 343,023,150 $ 113,897,914 $ 85,593,501
2010 ENTER VALUE ENTER VALUE ENTER VALUE ENTER VALUE
Model InputModel InputCurrent Year 2011
Taxing District 1 Taxing District 2
Effective Millage 60 52
Proportion TIF 85.00% 75.00%
Adjustment Factor 0.12 0.00
A t l R id ti l V l A t l C i l (TIF t t l) V lActual Residential Value Actual Commercial (TIF total) Value
Reporting Year Taxing District 1 Taxing District 2 Taxing District 1 Taxing District 2
2006 $ 72,966,980 $ 296,316,294 $ 95,630,884 $ 64,307,664
2007 $ 75,301,923 $ 311,132,108 $ 101,368,738 $ 70,738,4312007 $ 75,301,923 $ 311,132,108 $ 101,368,738 $ 70,738,431
2008 $ 77,711,585 $ 326,688,714 $ 107,450,862 $ 77,812,274
2009 $ 80,198,356 $ 343,023,150 $ 113,897,914 $ 85,593,501
2010 ENTER VALUE ENTER VALUE ENTER VALUE ENTER VALUE
Model InputpCurrent Year 2011
Taxing District 1 Taxing District 2
Effective Millage 60 52
Proportion TIF 85.00% 75.00%
djAdjustment Factor 0.12 0.00
Actual Residential Value Actual Commercial (TIF total) ValueActual Residential Value Actual Commercial (TIF total) Value
Reporting Year Taxing District 1 Taxing District 2 Taxing District 1 Taxing District 2
2006 $ 72,966,980 $ 296,316,294 $ 95,630,884 $ 64,307,664
2007 $ 75,301,923 $ 311,132,108 $ 101,368,738 $ 70,738,431
2008 $ 77,711,585 $ 326,688,714 $ 107,450,862 $ 77,812,274
2009 $ 80,198,356 $ 343,023,150 $ 113,897,914 $ 85,593,501
2010 ENTER VALUE ENTER VALUE ENTER VALUE ENTER VALUE
What does Our Model do?What does Our Model do?
Our Model Output Examplep pReporting Year 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Estimate Forecast
Total TIF Revenue
Low Estimate $ 3,201,429 $ 3,794,064 $ 3,891,348 $ 4,049,886 $ 4,234,136
High Estimate $ 3,201,429 $ 3,934,969 $ 4,035,866 $ 4,199,757 $ 4,389,678
Taxing District 1
Low estimate
Total Property Value $ 113,897,914 $137,561,308 $141,088,521 $147,120,894 $154,424,963 p y
Estimated TIF Value $ 96,813,226 $116,927,112 $119,925,243 $125,052,760 $131,261,218
Estimated TIF Revenue $ 2,033,078 $ 2,455,469 $ 2,518,430 $ 2,626,108 $ 2,756,486
Hi h E ti tHigh Estimate
Total Property Value $ 113,897,914 $152,041,446 $155,939,944 $162,607,304 $170,680,222
Estimated TIF Value $ 96,813,226 $129,235,229 $132,548,953 $138,216,209 $145,078,189
Estimated TIF Revenue $ 2,033,078 $ 2,713,940 $ 2,783,528 $ 2,902,540 $ 3,046,642
Our Model Output ExampleReporting Year 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Estimate Forecast
Total TIF Revenue
Low Estimate $ 3,201,429 $ 3,794,064 $ 3,891,348 $ 4,049,886 $ 4,234,136
High Estimate $ 3,201,429 $ 3,934,969 $ 4,035,866 $ 4,199,757 $ 4,389,678
Taxing District 1
Low estimate
Total Property Value $ 113,897,914 $137,561,308 $141,088,521 $147,120,894 $154,424,963 p y
Estimated TIF Value $ 96,813,226 $116,927,112 $119,925,243 $125,052,760 $131,261,218
Estimated TIF Revenue $ 2,033,078 $ 2,455,469 $ 2,518,430 $ 2,626,108 $ 2,756,486
Hi h E ti tHigh Estimate
Total Property Value $ 113,897,914 $152,041,446 $155,939,944 $162,607,304 $170,680,222
Estimated TIF Value $ 96,813,226 $129,235,229 $132,548,953 $138,216,209 $145,078,189
Estimated TIF Revenue $ 2,033,078 $ 2,713,940 $ 2,783,528 $ 2,902,540 $ 3,046,642
Our Model Output ExampleReporting Year 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Estimate Forecast
Total TIF Revenue
Low Estimate $ 3,201,429 $ 3,794,064 $ 3,891,348 $ 4,049,886 $ 4,234,136
High Estimate $ 3,201,429 $ 3,934,969 $ 4,035,866 $ 4,199,757 $ 4,389,678
Taxing District 1
Low estimate
Total Property Value $ 113,897,914 $137,561,308 $141,088,521 $147,120,894 $154,424,963 p y
Estimated TIF Value $ 96,813,226 $116,927,112 $119,925,243 $125,052,760 $131,261,218
Estimated TIF Revenue $ 2,033,078 $ 2,455,469 $ 2,518,430 $ 2,626,108 $ 2,756,486
Hi h E ti tHigh Estimate
Total Property Value $ 113,897,914 $152,041,446 $155,939,944 $162,607,304 $170,680,222
Estimated TIF Value $ 96,813,226 $129,235,229 $132,548,953 $138,216,209 $145,078,189
Estimated TIF Revenue $ 2,033,078 $ 2,713,940 $ 2,783,528 $ 2,902,540 $ 3,046,642
Our Model Output ExampleReporting Year 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Estimate Forecast
Total TIF Revenue
Low Estimate $ 3,201,429 $ 3,794,064 $ 3,891,348 $ 4,049,886 $ 4,234,136
High Estimate $ 3,201,429 $ 3,934,969 $ 4,035,866 $ 4,199,757 $ 4,389,678
Taxing District 1
Low estimate
Total Property Value $ 113,897,914 $137,561,308 $141,088,521 $147,120,894 $154,424,963 p y
Estimated TIF Value $ 96,813,226 $116,927,112 $119,925,243 $125,052,760 $131,261,218
Estimated TIF Revenue $ 2,033,078 $ 2,455,469 $ 2,518,430 $ 2,626,108 $ 2,756,486
Hi h E ti tHigh Estimate
Total Property Value $ 113,897,914 $152,041,446 $155,939,944 $162,607,304 $170,680,222
Estimated TIF Value $ 96,813,226 $129,235,229 $132,548,953 $138,216,209 $145,078,189
Estimated TIF Revenue $ 2,033,078 $ 2,713,940 $ 2,783,528 $ 2,902,540 $ 3,046,642
Our Model Output ExampleReporting Year 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Estimate Forecast
Total TIF Revenue
Low Estimate $ 3,201,429 $ 3,794,064 $ 3,891,348 $ 4,049,886 $ 4,234,136
High Estimate $ 3,201,429 $ 3,934,969 $ 4,035,866 $ 4,199,757 $ 4,389,678
Taxing District 1
Low estimate
Total Property Value $ 113,897,914 $137,561,308 $141,088,521 $147,120,894 $154,424,963 p y
Estimated TIF Value $ 96,813,226 $116,927,112 $119,925,243 $125,052,760 $131,261,218
Estimated TIF Revenue $ 2,033,078 $ 2,455,469 $ 2,518,430 $ 2,626,108 $ 2,756,486
Hi h E ti tHigh Estimate
Total Property Value $ 113,897,914 $152,041,446 $155,939,944 $162,607,304 $170,680,222
Estimated TIF Value $ 96,813,226 $129,235,229 $132,548,953 $138,216,209 $145,078,189
Estimated TIF Revenue $ 2,033,078 $ 2,713,940 $ 2,783,528 $ 2,902,540 $ 3,046,642
Our Model Output ExampleReporting Year 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Estimate Forecast
Total TIF Revenue
Low Estimate $ 3,201,429 $ 3,794,064 $ 3,891,348 $ 4,049,886 $ 4,234,136
High Estimate $ 3,201,429 $ 3,934,969 $ 4,035,866 $ 4,199,757 $ 4,389,678
Taxing District 1
Low estimate
Total Property Value $ 113,897,914 $137,561,308 $141,088,521 $147,120,894 $154,424,963 p y
Estimated TIF Value $ 96,813,226 $116,927,112 $119,925,243 $125,052,760 $131,261,218
Estimated TIF Revenue $ 2,033,078 $ 2,455,469 $ 2,518,430 $ 2,626,108 $ 2,756,486
Hi h E ti tHigh Estimate
Total Property Value $ 113,897,914 $152,041,446 $155,939,944 $162,607,304 $170,680,222
Estimated TIF Value $ 96,813,226 $129,235,229 $132,548,953 $138,216,209 $145,078,189
Estimated TIF Revenue $ 2,033,078 $ 2,713,940 $ 2,783,528 $ 2,902,540 $ 3,046,642
Our Model Output ExampleReporting Year 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Estimate Forecast
Total TIF Revenue
Low Estimate $ 3,201,429 $ 3,794,064 $ 3,891,348 $ 4,049,886 $ 4,234,136
High Estimate $ 3,201,429 $ 3,934,969 $ 4,035,866 $ 4,199,757 $ 4,389,678
Taxing District 1
Low estimate
Total Property Value $ 113,897,914 $137,561,308 $141,088,521 $147,120,894 $154,424,963 p y
Estimated TIF Value $ 96,813,226 $116,927,112 $119,925,243 $125,052,760 $131,261,218
Estimated TIF Revenue $ 2,033,078 $ 2,455,469 $ 2,518,430 $ 2,626,108 $ 2,756,486
Hi h E ti tHigh Estimate
Total Property Value $ 113,897,914 $152,041,446 $155,939,944 $162,607,304 $170,680,222
Estimated TIF Value $ 96,813,226 $129,235,229 $132,548,953 $138,216,209 $145,078,189
Estimated TIF Revenue $ 2,033,078 $ 2,713,940 $ 2,783,528 $ 2,902,540 $ 3,046,642
Adjustment Factor Illustrationj
TIF ActualTIF Actual
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008
Adjustment Factor IllustrationAdjustment Factor Illustration
TIF ActualTIF ActualTIF Predicted1 (base)
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008
Adjustment Factor IllustrationAdjustment Factor Illustration
TIF ActualTIF Predicted1 (base)
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008
Adjustment Factor IllustrationAdjustment Factor Illustration
TIF ActualTIF Predicted1 (base)TIF Predicted2 (adj)
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008
Additional InformationAdditional InformationFull Product includes:Full Product includes:
Customized forecast model and documentationdocumentation
Presentations to your staff and community y yleaders to explain the model and train to use
Support with updating forecast inputSupport with updating forecast input
Flexible PricingFlexible Pricing
Depends on:The number of taxing districts, TIF districtsThe number of taxing districts, TIF districtsNumber of presentations to your community leader and stakeholdersleader and stakeholders
U d d l i d l i d lUpdates to underlying model are priced separately
Thank youThank youfJennifer Pitzer
Research [email protected] p
(513)556-2491www.economicsresearch.org
Client Testimonial:“The TIF Model is intuitive, easy and flexible for reporting to the Township
Trustees to help them understand the resources that Deerfield Township h il bl Th T t ll i t h i t l th tmay have available. The Trustees really appreciate having a tool that can
inform planning for the future, beyond the upcoming year.”
- John Wahle, Fiscal Officer, Deerfield TownshipJohn Wahle, Fiscal Officer, Deerfield Township
