Commercial Forecast Adjustment

Draft June 19, 2002

Recent GrowthCommercial Sector Historical Growth

Weather Adjusted

-150

-50

50

150

250

350

1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998

Year

MW

a p

er y

ear

Morelan’s Draft ForecastCommercial Sector Forecast Growth

0

50

100

150

200

250

2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019 2021 2023 2025

Year

MW

a p

er Y

ear

Historic MetricCommercial Employment and Electricty Use

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999

Year

MW

a &

1000

Em

p

1.14

1.16

1.18

1.2

1.22

1.24

1.26

1.28

1.3

MW

a/10

00 E

mp

ThousandEmp

MWaWeatherAdjusted

MWa per1000 Emp

Planned Modifications

• Washington code upgrade

• Seattle code upgrade

• Idaho code upgrade

• Federal ballast standard

• Federal updates if adopted

• New Federal, if adopted

Item Description Impact

Washington Code

Two upgrades have occurred one effective July 2001 and an out-of-sequence change effective July of 2002. Changes in place as of July of 2001 include some commissioning requirements, equipment efficiencies, lighting controls for smaller buildings and exhaust hood efficiencies. Effective July 2002 Washington adopted ASHRAE 90.1, 1999 that includes upgraded equipment efficiencies, economizers on data centers and adiabatic humidification.

Largest changes are likely from equipment efficiencies, commissioning and economizers. On the order of 3% reduction overall in new buildings.

Item Description Impact

City of Seattle Seattle code to go beyond statewide code beginning July 2002. Changes include LPD to 1.0 wsf for offices, daylight controls, electronically commutated motors, and better windows.

About 20 percent better than ASHRAE 1999. About 10 percent beyond current practice.

Item Description Impact

State of Idaho Jurisdictions that have and enforce a building code. (All but two small counties.)

New code effective January 2003. Adopted IECC but has not adopted the 2001 ASHRAE supplement for chapter 7. So Idaho is using the ASHREA 90.1-1993 for chapter 7. Prototype analysis from Ken Baker and Mike Kennedy.

LPDs in retail drop lighting EUI. Equipment efficiencies improve, glazing and insulation improve UA. Significant EUI electric & base EUI changes in kWh/sf-yr  LR lighting (-0.4), 5.8SR lighting (-.32), 5.0 LO heating (-.47), 4.9All types auxiliary (-.17), LO,SR cooling (-.16), 0.8  

Item Description Impact

State of Oregon

Last code change in 1998 including update to ASHRAE standards for equipment plus tweeks to the major 1995 changes. Pending proposals are being reviewed for effect October 2003. There are 47 commercial code change proposals including building commissioning, demand control ventilation and others. Too early to estimate likelihood of change.

Negligible.

Item Description Impact

Federal Ballast Standard

Tier 1 applies to ballasts in new fixtures. Effective in ballasts sold after June 1, 2005 or incorporated into fixtures after January 1, 2006. Eliminates magnetic ballasts. Impacts natural replacement cycle in retrofit by about 10%. Does not impact new and remodel and renovation. Tier 2 requires electronic ballasts in ballast replacement markets. Effective for ballasts manufactured after June 30, 2010.

USDOE estimates average 36 kWh/year per ballast adjusted for current market share already occupied by electronic ballasts. 30 million ballasts annually in new fixtures in US.  About 6 million ballasts in the ballast-only replacement market.

Potential Federal Updates

• Packaged AC & HP

• R/BR Reflector lamps

ACEEE Proposed New

• Transformers

• Vending machines

• Refrigerators, Freezers, Ice makers

• Traffic Signals

• Exit signs

• Washers

• Large packaged AC equipment