Commercial Fleet Forecast-2012-H1 Summary

7/30/2019 Commercial Fleet Forecast-2012-H1 Summary

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summary

COmmErCIaL FLEET FOrECasTGLOBaL: 2012-2031

reech d li fo Flightglobl Iight d achieig the Diffeece


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COmmErCIaL FLEET FOrECasT2012-H1

2| Achieving the Difference | Flightglobal Insight | SUMMARY

BaCkGrOunDIn the rst half of 2011, Flightglobal publishedits rst forecast report. Flightglobal continues toexpand its growing store of information and isnow arguably among the worlds most completeset of aviation statistics anywhere.

In partnership with Clive Lewis of the Achievingthe Difference marketing practive, furtherrenements have been made to the forecastingmodel and the latest installment (2012-H1) now

includes an improved freighter forecast.

Clive brings with him decades of forecastingexperience within the commercial aerospacesector. Working together with the Flightglobal

Insight research team, he has painstakinglycombined Flightglobals data resource withhis expertise in developing computer-basedforecasting tools.

The resulting forecasting model spent a year inthe making. Much time was invested in ensuring

that the methodology was robust, includingsome sterling work by the UKs Bristol BusinessSchool in proving the model against decades

worth of data.

At the heart of the forecast lies the PachinkoProbability Tree. Like the ball-bearings of the

Japanese arcade game after which it is named,individual aircraft drop through this tree-likepredictive model based on over 800,000 historicobservations, assigning probabilities to which

way they will fall in terms of service, storage ormigration between world regions.

Total eet size is predicted by demand-sideanalysis based on the relationship between eetcapacity and economic growth, the latter based

on predictions from the International MonetaryFund (IMF).

Updated twice a year, the report is a set of 20-year predictions which are robustly tested and

truly independent.

The Pachinko Probability Tree has been

developed to perform long-term predictions

In THIs rEpOrTlPassenger and freighter demand

including:

Fleet size

Deliveries Order backlog

Retirements

lAnalysis divided in six world regionsplus a separate section on China

lCovers all modern commercialairliners over 20-seats

l Detailed orecasts or aircraftcategories down to model series


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Find out more onwww.ightglobal.com/forecast

SUMMARY| Achieving the Difference | Flightglobal Insight | 3

Africa

Asia-Pacific (ex China)

China

Europe

Middle East

North America

South America

22%

6%15%

7%

19%

24%

7%

Total fleet: 39,155

37%o the worlds commercial eet (all

uses) will be based in Asia-Pacifc by

2031. China alone will be operating

more than 5,900 aircrat.

15%o global narrowbody deliveries in 2030 will

be manuactured by companies competing

with the Airbus and Boeing duopoly.

HEaDLInEs

active fleet regional split in 2031

Number

ofdeliveries

Year ending

0

200

400

600

800

1,000

2027202220172012

Irkut MS-21

Comac C919

Bombardier CSeries

Boeing 737

Airbus A320 Family

narrowbody deliveries by manufacturer

aCTIvE FLEET DEvELOpmEnT

DELIvErIEs

Growth demand is coming from Asia-Pacic,China, the Middle East and Africa.The newterritories of growth demand appear to begrowing-up differently to the way the maturemarkets did, skipping the high levels of growth

in the smaller turboprop and regional jet eets.This is not good news for manufacturers in thesesegments without a growth region to deliver to.Signs of change in these areas will be carefullyobserved.

The narrowbody market group forms thebackbone of capacity supply across the world

and acts as a barometer of the industry. Fleetgrowth is expected to be strongest in Asia-Pacic and China. Although small, the eetsof Africa and the Middle East are expected toshow a high growth rate.


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58%o the worlds commercial eet

retirements to 2031 will be narrowbody

aircrat.

75%o commercial aircrat operating in 2012

will still be in service in 2031.

Numberofaircraft

Year ending

0

100

200

300

400

2027202220172012

Widebody Jet

Narrowbody Jet

Regional Jet

Turboprop

retirements by market group

Totalnumberofaircraft

Year ending

0

3,000

6,000

9,000

12,000

15,000

2027202220172012

Widebody Jet

Turboprop

Regional Jet

Narrowbody Jet

survivors by market group

rETIrEmEnTs

survIvOrs

It is no surprise that almost half of the retirementspredicted in the 121-200 seats category are ofthe prolic 737. Of these, the 737 Classic isexpected to see the most retirements. It is alsonot surprising that almost half of all retirements

are expected to be from the mature market of

North America.

A survivor is an aircraft that was in active service

in 2012, remaining in active service later in theforecast period. It is possible for an aircraft thathas been parked or used for some other purposeto re-enter the active eet at a later point.

A high percentage of the original regional jet andturboprop eet is expected to survive to the endof the forecast period while many narrowbody

jets are expected to re-enter service.


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Capacity

(tonnes)

Year ending

0

50,000

100,000

150,000

200,000

250,000

300,000

ll

l

2022201220021992

Large Widebody 72.5-150 tonnes

Medium Widebody 40-72.5 tonnes

Medium Standard Body 33-60 tonnes

Small Standard Body 12.5-33 tonnes

Utility 0-12.5 tonnes

61%o the commercial aircrat in China will be

in the 121-200 seat category by the end

o the orecast period.

65%o reighter capacity by 2031 is

projected to be large widebodies.

world freighter capacity

FOCus On CHIna

FrEIGHTEr markET

missingNumberofaircraft

Year ending

GDPonPPPbasis(currentin

tl$)

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

7,000

2022201220021992

0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

30,000

35,000

40,000

45,000

GDP451+ seats

351-450 seats

251-350 seats

201-250 seats

121-200 seats

91-120 seats

51-90 seats

20-50 seats

china: active passenger fleet

The growth of the eet in the 121-200 seatcategory has been the strongest of any in theregion, and is closely correlated with the growthof Chinas GDP. This relationship is reduced

slightly going forward, because the order book

does not support the continuation of suchcorrelated growth. There has been some slowgrowth in the average seats per aircraft. This isa global trend and is predicted to continue over

the forecast period.

Since the mid-1990s, an increasing proportion

of capacity has been delivered by large aircraft.In 1980, the Large Widebody share of capacitywas 30%. This had increased to 36% by 1990,

50% in 2000 and 60% in 2010, and is predictedto increase further, to 65%, by 2031.

More than half of the aircraft in this LargeWidebody freighter eet are Boeing 747s. By

2031, this gure is expected to fall to less than40%.


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wHaT DO yOu GET?

COnTEnTs

global summary

regional analysis

Arica | Asia-Pacifc | China | Europe | Middle East |

North America | South America

market group analysis

Turboprops | Regional jets | Narrowbody jets |

Widebody jets

manufacturers and programmes

Airbus | ATR | Boeing | Bombardier | Comac |

Embraer | Mitsubishi | United Aircrat Corporation

retirement forecast

Retirements | Conversions | Survivors

methodology

assumptions

glossary

appendices

The Commercial Fleet Forecastreportcan be purchased as an annual packagewhich includes two full printed reports,each with 350+ pages.

It features written analysis with detailedinfographics. Each report is supplied witha comprehensive, updated set of dataused in the analysis in Excel format.

Independent analysis...

lfrom trusted brands

lbased on world leading data

lwith a robust methodology

...informing your business

lthrough detailed analysis

lwith expert commentary

lplus full data tables in Excel


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aBOuT THE auTHOr

Clive Lewis of Achieving the Difference has morethan a quarter of a century of aerospace industryexperience. While a market forecaster at SmithsIndustries (now GE Aviation), he studied for aMasters degree in Marketing at the University of theWest of England. His dissertation on an econometric

model for forecasting airliner retirements earnedhim a distinction. Clive went on to lead the marketand business forecasting team at Lucas Varity

which became TRW Aeronautical Systems and laterGoodrich Aerospace.

As an industry supporter, Clive is a member of the ADSMarket Development Board. For the last few years,Achieving the Difference has delivered the marketforecast used by ADS and UK Trade & Investment to

determine their international support strategy for thesector.

For further details, contact Daniel Sedman (Sales Manager Europe) at:

Tel: +44 208 652 3914Email: [email protected]


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Find out more about this report onwww.ightglobal.com/forecast

Commercial Fleet Forecast-2012-H1 Summary

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