Commercial Aerostructures Market Finally Ready for Take-off · 2018-04-14 · PCC acquires Exacta...

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TIMET Commercial Aerostructures Market Finally Ready for Take-off Henry S. Seiner TIMET 2014 09.22

Transcript of Commercial Aerostructures Market Finally Ready for Take-off · 2018-04-14 · PCC acquires Exacta...

Page 1: Commercial Aerostructures Market Finally Ready for Take-off · 2018-04-14 · PCC acquires Exacta Aerospace . RTI acquires . Dynamet Technology . Alcoa acquires Firth Rixson . Leggett

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Commercial Aerostructures Market Finally Ready for Take-off

Henry S. Seiner TIMET

2014 09.22

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Disclaimer Certain of the information presented herein relates to matters that are not historical facts but are forward-looking projections/statements that involve risks and uncertainties associated with TIMET’s business that are described more fully in TIMET’s filings with the United States Securities & Exchange Commission. Actual future results could differ materially from these projections. You rely on these projections and other information in this presentation at your own risk, and TIMET assumes no duty to update any of this information should expectations change.

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Traffic Backlog Drivers

Integration Trends Forecast

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Record Backlogs

4 Source: Boeing, Airbus

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Record Backlogs

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650K MTs of titanium demand over life of the backlog.

Source: Backlogs per Boeing and Airbus, Buy weight estimates per Goldman Sachs

AircraftApproximate Airframe Ti

Demand (MTs)Approximate

Years of Backlog737 125,000 7747 10,000 2767 5,000 3777 90,000 3787 85,000 7

Total 315,000

Boeing Backlog by Aircraft

AircraftApproximate Airframe Ti

Demand (MTs)Approximate

Years of BacklogA320 170,000 9A330 25,000 2A350 90,000 7A380 50,000 6Total 335,000

Airbus Backlog by Aircraft

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Traffic Backlog Drivers

Integration Trends Forecast

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World Traffic

7 Source: June 2014 Airline Monitor

Region 1990 2013 2035US 41% 27% 13%Europe 27% 27% 19%Asia Pacific 19% 30% 43%

SHARE OF WORLD TRAFFIC

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World Traffic

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↑2.5% ↑6.8% ↑6.2% ↑6.2%

↑3.6% ↑7.4%

Source: June 2014 Airline Monitor

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Traffic Backlog Drivers

Integration Trends Forecast

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Oil & Aircraft Deliveries

10 Source: www.titudorancea.com

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Oil & Aircraft Deliveries

11 Source: June 2014 Airline Monitor and www.titudorancea.com

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Oil & Aircraft Deliveries

12 Source: June 2014 Airline Monitor and www.titudorancea.com

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Retirements

13 767 retired for 787 747-4 retired for 777-300 ER

Source: June 2014 Airline Monitor and Aviation Week

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Traffic Backlog Drivers

Integration Trends Forecast

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Increasing Ti per Plane

15 Source: Goldman Sachs

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Other Trends

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Ultra Clean, Highly Spherical Metal Powders Supply chain is responding to demands with new technologies

Page 17: Commercial Aerostructures Market Finally Ready for Take-off · 2018-04-14 · PCC acquires Exacta Aerospace . RTI acquires . Dynamet Technology . Alcoa acquires Firth Rixson . Leggett

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Traffic Backlog Drivers

Integration Trends Forecast

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Supply Chain Alignment

PCC acquires Exacta Aerospace

RTI acquires Dynamet Technology

Alcoa acquires Firth Rixson

Leggett & Platt acquires David Hart Aerospace Pipes Ltd

PCC acquires ADI

Triumph Group acquires GE Aviation Hydraulics

Sifco acquires MW General

Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul

ATI acquires Hanard Machine Inc

RTI acquires Directed Manufacturing

PCC acquires SOS Metals

Héroux Devtek acquires BBA Aviation PLC

RTI acquires Osborn Steel Extrusions

ATI acquires Dynamic Flowform Corp

PCC acquires Designed Metal Connections

PCC acquires Summit Machining Inc.

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Aerospace & Defense M&A

19 Source: www.imaa-institute.org

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Traffic Backlog Drivers

Integration Trends Forecast

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Making Sense of Airline Monitor Forecasts ??

21 Source: Airline Monitor

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Airline Monitor Forecast: 2014-2020 Deliveries

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January 2006 Forecast

2014 Deliveries = 1315 2017 Deliveries = 1495 2020 Deliveries = 1695 Source: Airline Monitor

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Airline Monitor Forecast: 2014-2020 Deliveries

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January 2008 Forecast

2014 Deliveries = 1120 2017 Deliveries = 1615 2020 Deliveries = 1720 Source: Airline Monitor

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Airline Monitor Forecast: 2014-2020 Deliveries

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January 2010 Forecast

2014 Deliveries = 1180 2017 Deliveries = 1200 2020 Deliveries = 1825 Source: Airline Monitor

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Airline Monitor Forecast: 2014-2020 Deliveries

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January 2012 Forecast

2014 Deliveries = 1590 2017 Deliveries = 1540 2020 Deliveries = 1710 Source: Airline Monitor

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Airline Monitor Forecast: 2014-2020 Deliveries

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June 2014 Forecast

2014 Deliveries = 1580 2017 Deliveries = 1990 2020 Deliveries = 2180 Source: Airline Monitor

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Airline Monitor Forecast Recap

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Build Rate Year January 2006 AM Forecast

January 2008 AM Forecast

January 2010 AM Forecast

January 2012 AM Forecast

June 2014 AM Forecast

2014 1315 1120 1180 1590 1580

2017 1495 1615 1200 1540 1990

2020 1695 1720 1825 1710 2180

Source: Airline Monitor

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Forecast

28 Source: June 2014 Airline Monitor and internal TIMET estimates

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Commercial Aerostructures Market Finally Ready for Take-off

Henry S. Seiner TIMET

2014 09.22