Comments on What We’ve Heard –

Looking Back and Looking Forward from Harvey

David R. Conrad, CFM Policy Consultant, Association of State

Floodplain Managers

SSPEED Center, Rice University, Severe Storm Prediction, Education and Evacuation Center, Houston, TX

Urban Flooding and Infrastructure

Conference: Moving Forward from Harvey

February 21-22, 2018

ASFPM’s Mission

Mitigate the losses, costs, and human suffering caused by flooding.

and…

Protect the natural and beneficial functions of floodplains.

OUR CHALLENGE

Floods are 'acts of God,' but flood losses are largely acts of man. 1945 PhD Dissertation Human Adjustments to Flood by Gilbert F. White

“Higher Ground” studied repetitive flood losses and new non-structural approaches

- released July, 1998

Major Findings of “Higher Ground” Less than 2% of properties were generating nearly 40% of NFIP losses.

10% of Single Family Homes Had Repetitive Losses Exceeding Their Value. In all, these homes were valued at $308 million, but received $416 million in insurance

payments

Substantial Damage Rules Are Poorly Enforced. 15% (10,921) were “substantially damaged”. In all, 5,578 properties received $167 million

in insurance payments after suffering a 50 percent or greater loss in one flood.

20% of Repetitive Losses Occur Outside the Designated 100-Year Floodplain. In all, 15,275 repetitive loss properties outside the designated 100-year floodplain

received $530 million in insurance payments. Called into deep question the reliability of NFIP maps.

Flood Damages Costs Have Drastically Increased. 1900s: $2.2 billion avg/yr 1990s: $5.6 billion avg/yr 2000s: $10 billion avg/yr 2017: $300 billion (in one year!)

Updates since report was released

Hazard Mitigation Grants Program Voluntary Buyouts

FEMA HMA Mitigated Properties 1989 – 2014

Total Properties (all states): Acquired 48,369 Elevated 10,857 Floodproofed 649 Relocated 1,295 Total 60,870 (compare with 29,757 reported May, 2001) Source: FIMA Mitigation Risk Reduction Div., Oct. 2015 , (calendar yrs)

Frequency Distribution of Repetitive Losses Per Properties

Repetitive Loss Payments Properties Losses

$17,305,128 27 16-34

$8,120,317 34 14-15

$12,400,392 60 12-13

$27,008,567 170 10-11

$58,330,698 534 8-9

$163,466,160 1,983 6-7

$505,093,263 8,898 4-5

$576,609,898 15,711 3

$1,212,925,826 47,078 2

Totals (as of August 1995) $2,581,260,251 74,501 200,182 National Totals (as of 11/30/2017) -- $15,342,759,586 172,203 506,318

“Higher Ground” Released in Houston - July 1998

• Houston/Harris Co ranked 3rd/4th in nation for rep

losses (3600+ $200 m) • no zoning • rapid growth/ impervious development up bayous • floodplain development • wetland losses • flat topography / clay soils / major subsidence • focus on channelization • stream enlargements and small detention, rather than

leaving unobstructed flood conveyances • Lack of funding for requested buyouts

Disaster risk rapidly increasing

Pleas to Leadership

Houston Chronicle editorial– “Going Under – National flood insurance program

needs some shoring up” 8-1-1998 “While it may be hard to recall at the moment, Houston

and Southeast Texas over the years have been no strangers to torrential rainstorms that flood low-lying areas. Despite our current dry state, chances are we’ll see such high-water events again.”

“One $100,000 Houston property near the San Jacinto River is cited in the report as having brought its owner $806,591 for 16 flooding incidents over the 18 years studied . . . . nearly $50 million in flood insurance claims have been paid on such damaged property.”

. . . there’s a serious need to re-evaluate the way the nation approaches flood recovery.

The official flood maps should be updated.

Chronicle Editorial 8-1-1998

“Alternative flood control and prevention methods, which may not require building expensive dams and channels need to be looked at . . . . developing a voluntary buyout program for flood prone properties deserves serious consideration.”

“[S]ome 15 percent of repeat claims paid out across the nation were found to be for homes that had suffered “substantial damage” . . . . Such homes, according to federal rules, are required to be removed from the flood plain or elevated above it. Yet the numbers raise questions about how effectively the government is enforcing the rule.”

“A more reasonable approach to flood insurance, with stricter enforcement and voluntary buyouts, could save taxpayers money and preserve the insurance program for those occasions when it really is vital.”

After Harvey

Addicks Dam and Reservoir

Repetitive Loss State Data as of 11/30/2017 (nominal $) - (Texas Winning)

State $ Losses Total Repetitive Loss Bldgs

Texas 3,386,889,931.77 25701 Louisiana 2,599,049,132.43 25811 New York 1,613,296,819.40 18157 New Jersey 1,432,284,073.46 14647 Florida 1,287,010,406.95 14887 Pennsylvania 601,062,773.35 7458 North Carolina 449,315,769.16 7814 Mississippi 426,960,951.13 4651

Harvey Rebuilding Issues Flood maps based on grossly

inaccurate precipitation frequency data

Impervious area – continuing record growth

Major floodplain encroachment Roads have become critical

stormwater systems Flood detention strategy failing Addicks and Barker Dam tragedies Cross-basin flooding

Pinch points from road and rail construction

Limits to widening/deepening bayous for conveyance

135,000 buildings flooded in Harvey

107,000 residential parcels in current Harris County’s SFHA

Storm surge remains long term threat

NOAA Atlas 14 Precipitation Frequency Atlas Vol.11, Version 1: Texas Updated inches of rain in 24 hours for 1% recurrence Difference between previous and current Atlas

Rice U recommendations - Blackburn

Where Harvey didn’t flood – backbone of future Houston

Focus on repeat flood areas

Addicks /Barker reservoirs – repair/ fix levees, remove sediment; new reservoir

Recognize storm surge risks to key national chemical/refining infrastructure

Interim adoption of “500-year flood” levels (18 in. over 24 hours) – Harris Co. Jan 2018

Revise NFIP maps based on updated rainfall estimates / future conditions

“Room for the bayou”

Photo by Staff Sgt. Daniel Martinez/U.S. Department of Defense

Protect and use markets to preserve

remaining prairies and wetlands

Increase funding for flood damage reduction and planning, dedicate tax or levy

Improve flood warning

Regional coordinated planning

Mandate freeboard for new /reconstruction

Invest in public education, visible markers

Pursue Ike Dike ($11 b) or mid-bay project ($3 b)

Require transparent metrics for accountability

Rice U recommendations (cont.)

Many other examples of comprehensive approaches Charlotte-Mecklenburg, NC Grand Forks, ND Des Moines, IA St. Charles County, MO Kinston, NC after Hurricanes Fran and Floyd Milwaukee Municipal Sewer District 2035 Program S. Louisiana moving toward major buyout

New Emergency Supplemental funding Corps of Engineers -- $17.4 b

Investigations - $135 m - “high priority”, reduce risk from future floods and

hurricanes, 100% federal, not less than $75 m for H-I-M states, authorized or new, rest shared with ~30+ states with 2+ major declared flood disasters.

Construction - $15.055 b – not less than $10.45 b for H-I-M states – 2+ Declared flood disaster states may compete for remaining funds), for flood and storm damage reduction purposes, Chief’s report projects or from investigations, incl. feasible new auth., $50 million for continuing authorities. Completion of “on-going” construction projects at full Federal expense from these funds.

Mississippi River and Tributaries - $770 m ($400 m for flood and storm damage projects auth. or future)

O&M - $608 m dredge Federal nav projects and repairs to Corps projects from natural disasters

Flood Control and Coastal Emergencies - $810 million prepare for flood, hurricanes and natural disasters and response to disasters/ P.L. 84-99

Available until expended

FEMA - Disaster Relief Fund $23.5 billion

$23.5 b - for all FEMA Stafford Act programs, including Public Assistance, Individual Assistance and Hazard Mitigation.

Adds to supplemental appropriation of $7.4 b received Sept. 8. and $18.6 b received Oct. 26

Available until expended

HUD Community Development Funds – CDBG-DR – $ 28 billion $28 b – for disaster relief, long-term recovery, restoration of

infrastructure and housing, economic revitalization, and mitigation in most impacted and distressed areas – delivered through States.

Up to $16 b to TX, FL, PR and VI and 2017 major declared disasters, From total no less than $11 b Hurricane Maria-affected, proportionate

to “needs” No less than $12 b. for mitigation activities (for TX, FL, PR, and VI,

and certain 2015 and 2016 grantees). Supplements $7.4 billion from Second Supplemental Appropriation

P.L. 115-56, 9/8/18, allocated 2/9/18 In 2/9 allocation , TX received $5.024 b or 68% of total (HUD

determined “need” - based on “best available data”) Secretary must allocate to grantees aggregate amounts of no less than

33 percent within 60 days (4/10) and 100 percent by 12/1/2018.

Good News -HUD requirements in State Action Plans – Feb. 9 Notice – Assessment of natural hazard risks and anticipated effects of future

extreme weather events and other hazards. For Residential buyouts, new construction, repair of substantial

damage, substantial improvement: Elevate lowest floor at least two feet above base flood elevation. Critical Actions - within 500-year floodplain elevate or flood

proof to higher of 500-year flood or 3 feet above 100-year elevation (hospitals, nursing homes, police and fire stations, principal utility lines, etc.)

All applicable higher State, local, or tribal floodplain management standards for elevation, setback, and cumulative substantial damage must be followed.

HUD requires specified green building standards for new residential construction and replacement of substantially damaged residential; green upgrades for non-substantially damaged rehab

Final Observations Unprecedented levels of recovery and flood hazard mitigation

funding Opportunity for major “reset” of region’s flooding future Making data available and understandable to the public is

critical Maximize opportunities for public involvement in floodplain

planning and decisionmaking. Harris County showing key leadership in adopting a .2 percent

500-year rebuilding standard. Hoping for same in Houston. Need accurate flood maps that build in the factors for risk and

uncertainties – reasonably foreseeable climate change and watershed build-out /future conditions.

Must shorten and regularize buyout process. Require stronger Increased Cost of Compliance and Ordinance

and Law coverage with all flood insurance, public or private, going forward.

Congress working on WRDA, Stafford Act, NFIP Busy year ahead

Thank you

Questions?

Photo by Daniel Ray

David R. Conrad, CFM Policy Consultant, Association of State Floodplain Managers

conrad.david.r@gmail.com (202)365-0565