Comet ISONComet ISONAn illustration of Science in action….An illustration of Science in action….

Comet ISONComet ISON

Processes involved in Good Science?Processes involved in Good Science?

Illustrations of these following Comet Illustrations of these following Comet ISON’s detection, approach, and orbiting ISON’s detection, approach, and orbiting of the Sunof the Sun

Processes involved in science:Processes involved in science:

observationobservation of data, developing questions about trends, of data, developing questions about trends, differences, unique occurrences seen within that data,differences, unique occurrences seen within that data,

researchresearch into previous work on similar questions, into previous work on similar questions,

building models & building models & creating testable hypothesescreating testable hypotheses,,

designing & gathering new data through, designing & gathering new data through, experimentsexperiments,,

testing & testing & refining models refining models based on analysis of new data based on analysis of new data

Processes involved in science:Processes involved in science:

modifying or modifying or discarding incorrect hypothesesdiscarding incorrect hypotheses

developing interconnected hypotheses into developing interconnected hypotheses into theoriestheories

sharing data & results with peers for sharing data & results with peers for independent independent evaluation and testingevaluation and testing

andand

publishing findings publishing findings in peer-reviewed journals so that the in peer-reviewed journals so that the community of science can advance. community of science can advance.

Obsevations:Obsevations:

Detected Sept 21, 2012Detected Sept 21, 2012

Confirmed by others AND by Confirmed by others AND by looking at earlier photos by looking at earlier photos by 9/249/24

Good Science: Multiple independent observations

ObservationsObservations

Very “active” for so far Very “active” for so far away. away.

Good Science: Look at objects with multiple wavelengths, in different ways, to learn more

SWIFT Gamma Ray SWIFT Gamma Ray Telescope (launched 2004)Telescope (launched 2004)

Deep Impact Mission (launched 2005)Deep Impact Mission (launched 2005)

Models:Models:

Orbit model of a Orbit model of a “Sungrazer Comet”“Sungrazer Comet”

Like 1680 Comet Kirch?Like 1680 Comet Kirch?

Good Science: Research past similar orbits and trajectories, develop models based on data plus earlier knowledge

Develop Develop HypothesesHypotheses

Very “active” => Might Very “active” => Might it create a great sight?it create a great sight?

Good Science: Research past comets

Would it look like Would it look like Comet Hartley ?Comet Hartley ?

Develop Develop HypothesesHypotheses

New comet, fresh from New comet, fresh from Oort cloudOort cloud

Like 2011 Comet Like 2011 Comet LovejoyLovejoy

Good Science: Develop Hypotheses based on available data, suggest tests for these to spur new observations/experiments

Develop Develop HypothesesHypotheses

New comet, fresh from New comet, fresh from Oort cloudOort cloud

Like 2011 Comet Like 2011 Comet Lovejoy, would it Lovejoy, would it survive?survive?

Good Science: Develop Hypotheses based on available data, suggest tests for these to spur new observations/experiments

Develop Develop HypothesesHypotheses

It could be an epic It could be an epic failurefailure

It could fizzle & burn upIt could fizzle & burn up

It could be spectacular!It could be spectacular!

Testing of Hypotheses w/ multiple Testing of Hypotheses w/ multiple experimentsexperiments

Testing of Hypotheses w/ multiple Testing of Hypotheses w/ multiple experimentsexperiments

Why so active so early?

Use IR telescope to see CO2 & CO molecules

ISON has lots of Gas!

“The Soda Pop Comet”

Testing of Hypotheses w/ multiple Testing of Hypotheses w/ multiple experimentsexperiments

Use spectra to help confirm composition

Refining ModelsRefining Models

Involve lots of scientistsInvolve lots of scientists

Good Science: Sharing different views and ideas among peers advances science

Testing of Hypotheses w/ multiple Testing of Hypotheses w/ multiple experimentsexperiments

Continued study – it might be really SPECTACULAR!

Discarding Hypotheses based on new dataDiscarding Hypotheses based on new data