Combination of the scenario workshop and wiki to improve the effectiveness of consensus building...

Combination of the scenario workshop and wiki to improve the effectiveness of consensus building process

Jongmin Han†, Hyun Yim†, Soekho Son†, Jae-Shin Lee‡

† Korea Institute of Science & Technology Evaluation and Planning, Seoul, Korea‡ Chung-Ang University, Dept. of Mass Communications, Seoul, Korea

The 4th International Seville Conference onFuture-Oriented Technology Analysis (FTA)

12 & 13 May 2011


Introduction

Conversation and debate in scenario workshop

•In order to create successful scenario, the rational and efficient consensus building process should be operated in scenario workshops.

•Participants in scenario workshops can understand the future differently by their own experience, knowledge and situations because scenarios treat the future cannot be predicted.

•Therefore, in order to write successful scenarios, the conflicting claims of participants should be adjusted to the reasonable and feasible logic by conversation and debate.

We need a consensus building process to make the high quality scenarios in scenario workshops.


Obstacles to successful conversation and debate

Non-free/equal Communication

•Conversation and debate are influenced by master-student relationship, senior-junior relationship, the Confucian culture.

•In South Korean culture, it remains to be unheard of to question or criticize a superior. Experts with lower ranking or position often only “suggested” weak signals and they rarely spoken a second time even when the weak signals became clear.

To maintain a good relationship, some experts often agree with different opinions or don’t criticize other’s opinions.



Very busy professionals

•In national level foresight, government generally requires that participants in scenario workshops will be comprised of experts that well-reputed in their areas.

•The higher the reputation of experts, the less experts’ time to work for scenario workshops. In addition, it is difficult for them to attend all meetings.

Next meeting

Due to 10 p.m.

It is difficult to design the pre-training for studying drivers of change, trends/issues related to foresight’s topic.



Not-enough feedback

•Discussion about scenarios is generally finished within scenario workshops. However, in order to write good scenarios, we continuously revise scenarios by the feedback of experts and several stakeholders.

•For successful scenarios, scenarios must include the creative thought of the future. Commonly, the creative idea about the future is finding through not flash of insight but careful consideration for a long time.

Scenario Workshop is not enough to discuss or revise scenarios.


How to resolve or improve

Non-free/equal Communication•We need the environment that can communicate freely without the relationship of experts.

Very busy professionals•We need the method that experts can participate in scenario building without the limitation of time and place.

Not-enough feedback•We need the time and place that experts discuss or revise scenarios continuously.

Wiki is good solution for above issues !!!


Why is a wiki system??

Anyone

•A wiki system can guarantee experts anonymity with temporal user ID. So, They can write articles freely. And then, if experts have the right to revise contents in special pages, they can modify articles of other experts.

Anytime, Anywhere

•If experts can access the Internet, they can write articles in anytime, anywhere.

Low cost

•Almost wiki software is free. So, if you have a web server in your organization or institute, it never cost for you to make a wiki system. We made the wiki system with dokuwiki(freeware).

http://dotsub.com/view/77366331-a04d-48f0-8cab-cb5e278c4033


The usage of a wiki system before this research

KISTEP 10 emerging technologies(2009)

•Experts make a initial list of technologies by a wiki system.

Selection of ExpertsSelection of Experts

Initial List of TechnologiesInitial List of Technologies

Screen Technologiesaccording to criteria

Screen Technologiesaccording to criteria

Selection of Final 10 TechsSelection of Final 10 Techs

Wiki


The usage of a wiki system before this research

Strategic foresight of the energy efficiency(2010)•Each expert suggested drivers of change according to STEEP analysis and then discussed online to finalize the drivers using the wiki system.

Identifying Drivers of changeIdentifying Drivers of change

Finding Key UncertaintiesFinding Key Uncertainties

Writing scenariosWriting scenarios

Wiki

Strategic foresight of the energy efficiency

Identifying Drivers of changeIdentifying Drivers of change

Finding Key UncertaintiesFinding Key Uncertainties

Writing scenariosWriting scenarios

Wiki

Strategic foresight of the media

Strategic foresight of the media(2010)•The participants wrote scenarios in the wiki system. They edited the scenarios based on the continuous feedback provided from the wiki system.


New process

Scenario workshop + Wiki

•We designed the process to combine scenario workshop with wiki.

Step 1:Identifying Drivers of

change

Step 2:Finding Key

Uncertainties

Step 3:Writing Scenarios

Wiki Workshop + Wiki Workshop + Wiki


Step 1: Identifying Drivers of change

Only usage of the wiki system

•We design the process that participants discuss the future in depth and identify the drivers of change through a wiki system. The wiki system was developed for debating and suggesting their ideas about the future drivers of change.

•The drivers of change are identified by following process.

Offering some drivers related to the topic1-Name, definition of drivers-Ripple effects of drivers

Debating and suggesting their ideas about the future drivers of change

2

-Name, definition of drivers-Ripple effects of drivers-Two possibilities of drivers-Relationship between drivers


Step 2: Finding key uncertainties

Extended discussion by the wiki system

•We design the process that participants can discuss further the estimated result of drivers in depth through the wiki system after participants initially estimate the drivers in the workshop.

•Participants evaluate the drivers based on two perspectives, impact and uncertainty during a workshop. The drivers of change that were evaluated as the ones with high impact and high uncertainty received the main focus. The entire consensuses building process is conducted on the wiki system.

•Through the wiki system, participants can review the estimated result of drivers and discuss and revise two possibilities of key uncertainties in depth.


Step 3: Writing scenarios

Continuous feedback

•participants write drafts of scenarios in the workshop. After that, they edit the scenarios based on the continuous feedback provided from the wiki system.

•we continuously revise scenarios by the feedback of experts and several stakeholders by this process


Pilot project with university students

Voluntary participants

•The pilot project progressed with university students. Trainings for the scenario building process and usage of the wiki system were provided in the classroom. The participants were very cooperative and showed enthusiasm throughout the project partly because of the fact that the outcome could affect their grade.

•In order to work a wiki system successfully, it is important that experts are willing to participate. The higher the participation of experts, the richer the contents made by a wiki system.

•We developed scenarios about the future of media devices (Smartphone, Smart TV, Tablet PC). Most of students were not technology experts but have major in mass media. So, they had enough knowledge about mass communications technology.

Total 9 scenarios are developed (3 scenarios for each media device)


Pilot project Schedule

Schedule

Process Detailed Process Schedule

Step1:Identifying drivers of

change

Offering some drivers related to the topic

2010.11.2 ~11.4

Debating and suggesting their ideas about the future drivers of change

2010.11.6~11.10

Step2:Finding key uncertainties

1st workshop 2010.11.11

Discussion about key uncertainties in Wiki

2010.11.12~11.16

Step3:Writing scenarios

2nd workshop 2010.11.18

Revising scenarios in Wiki 2010.11.19~12.2


Identifying drivers of change (Tablet PC)

The Usage of STEEP analysis in a wiki system(www.foresightwiki.org)

Social

Demographic changeU-Learning demandThe convergence of IndustryKnowledge serviceOne person, one computerThe purchasing power of young age in developing economiesThe usage of public transportation Digital divideIncome polarization

TechnologicalWireless network technologyCloud computing technologyUser Interface technologyDisplay technology

Economical The profit change of Contents industryOpen collaboration environment

Environmental The emergence of health risk factors by developing technologies

PoliticalIntellectual property rightsThe policy to support the smart work Privacy Policies


Finding key uncertainties (Tablet PC)

Key axes of uncertainty

Two possibilities

- +

The profit change of Contents

industrypoor High income

The usage of public

transportation decrease increase

The purchasing power of young

age in developing economies

stagnation Continuous growth


Writing scenarios (Tablet PC)

Scenario

TitleKey axes of uncertainty Scenario Description

Pax Tabula

The profit change of Contents industry : High income

The usage of public transportation : Increase

The purchasing power of young age in developing economies : Continuous growth

The increase of young age’s purchasing power in developing economies and the usage of public transportation raise the growth of tablet PC’s market.

Companies in contents industry reinvest most of profit in their fields.

Tablet PC becomes in its golden age.

Marginal Mobile Device

The profit change of Contents industry : Poor

The usage of public transportation : Increase

The purchasing power of young age in developing economies : Stagnation

Tablet PC fails to create a new market, which is due to the stagnation of young age’s purchasing power in developing economies.

Tablet PC will merge into smart phone or PC.

The role of tablet PC becomes a second device that is used in education, entertainment.

Tablet PCFadeaway

The profit change of Contents industry : Poor

The usage of public transportation : Decrease

The purchasing power of young age in developing economies : Stagnation

Tablet PC fails to create a new market.

The market and quality of contents have decreased steadily.


Conclusion•We believe that the combined approach used in this research can be more productive than a method with scenario workshops alone when generating and developing new ideas. Our method can overcome the limitations of scenario workshops since it helps participants to discuss freely without any social pressure and time limit.

•This methodology provides advantages over the scenario workshop only method in that participants could receive equal opportunities and enjoy anonymities to express their opinions freely.

•However, it should be emphasized that the wiki system is just a tool helping participants generate and develop ideas. The role of the entire participants of the project is more important than the methodology itself to carry out a successful foresight project. We are going to research what incentive is effective for high participation of experts.

Combination of the scenario workshop and wiki to improve the effectiveness of consensus building...

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