Combatting Da’esh: We Are Losing the Battle for Hearts and Minds

Munqith M. Dagher IIACSS, Iraq Dec. 2015

Methodology

• F2F simple random sample in Mosul: 15th June2014. N=200

• F2F snowballing samples, Mosul and Anbar,June 2015. N=200

• F2F quota snowballing interviews in Mosul,Dec. 2015. N=120

Nationwide survey 8th June 2014

Introduction • For the last two years I have argued that ISIL (Da’esh) is a

symptom rather than a disease in itself. My theory to explain thesudden rise of ISIL in Iraq and the region is based on hundreds ofthousands of face-to-face interviews that have been conductedover the last decade.

• There have long been “red flags” in the Sunni areas controlled byAl Qaeda during the years 2006-2009, and later on by ISIL (Da’esh)from 2014 till now. Deep dissatisfaction with the centralgovernment has long been clear in the Sunni triangle.

• The survey results suggest that Da’esh is now winning the battlefor hearts and minds among people in Mosul, while opinion isturning against those seeking to extricate Da’esh. Now there is aspike in support for Da’esh.

• One reason for this uptick in support is the growing cost ofcollateral damage in the fight against Da’esh, as opposed toanything Da’esh itself is doing to improve peoples’ lives.

1. Steady increase in support for Da’esh

Why doesn’t the current strategy work ?

Dec. 2015

Thinking about life in general, is it better or worse today than eighteen months ago?

42%

55%

3%

77%

21%

2%

Worse

Better

Same

June 2015 Dec. 2015

More people say that their current life is better than it was under the Iraqi central government

Dec. 2015

In your opinion, to what extent does Da’esh represent the views and interests of people like you?

10%

26%

39%

72% 67%

57%

June 2014 June 2015 Dec. 2015

Yes No

Consistent rise in support for Da’esh

Dec. 2015

What is your primary preference for the future of Mosul?

39.2

56.7

.8

3.3

0.0 10.0 20.0 30.0 40.0 50.0 60.0

Da'esh maintains control over the city

Da'esh leave Mosul forever

Other

DK/NA

While the majority opposes Da’esh, nearly 40% want them to stay in Mosul

2. Armed campaign players are neither trusted nor effective

Why doesn’t the current strategy work ?

Dec. 2015

Why do you want to keep the status quo in the city?

13

16

23

16

34

0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40

An attack on Mosul would kill too many innocent people.

I do not trust the Kurdish forces.

I do not trust the Iraqi Army.

I do not trust the Americans.

I support the Islamic State’s caliphate.

Distrust of those who would counter Da’esh runs deep

Dec. 2015

Some say that there has been a conspiracy by the U.S. government to support ISIL. What do you think?

Agree

Disagree

41%

50%

60%

37%

Dec. 2015 June 2014

Conspiracy theories on the rise

Dec. 2015

What do you view as the biggest threat to your family’s security at this time?

45.8

37.5

8.3

5.8

2.5

0.0 5.0 10.0 15.0 20.0 25.0 30.0 35.0 40.0 45.0 50.0

American and coalition air attacks

The security forces of the Islamic State

The Iraqi Army and Shiite militia (Popular Mobilization forces)

Crime

Kurdish forces

U.S. airstrikes and the Iraqi Army perceived as a threat to Mosul people’s security

People in Mosul worry about the U.S. airstrikes June 2015

43%

57%

Agree Oppose

Do you agree with or oppose the U.S. airstrikes ?

13%

15%

83%

76%

Religious Shiite militias

Popular Moblization forces

Concerned Not concerned

High concerns about the role of Iranian-supported Shiite militias in fighting Da’esh June 2015

3. People clearly don’t trust current alternatives

Why doesn’t the current strategy work ?

Low trust in Iraqi institutions

30%

38%

18%

68%

60%

82%

Iraqi police

Iraqi Army

Iraqi parliament

No confidence Confidence

How confident are you in the following when it comes to improving the situation in Iraq?

Dec. 2015

In your opinion, do the following represent the views and interests of people like you?

26%

30%

38%

72%

68%

59%

Iraqi central government

Current Sunni politicians

Current Mosul politicians

No Yes

People in Mosul don’t trust their politicians

Conclusion The current data confirm that we are losing the battle for hearts and minds: • More Mosul citizens support Da’esh than before, though the

majority still rejects them. • One of the important interpretations of this increase is that

people are not sure about the future and are showing a clear lack of confidence in the future.

• Iraqi state alternatives for people in Mosul are not considered trustworthy or qualitatively better than Da’esh.

• Current military strategy does not work and actually helps Da’esh garner more support.

• A new political and communication strategy needs to be implemented to win the hearts and minds of people under control of Da’esh. The Iraqi partners (whether military or political) must be more reliable and trusted by the people.