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Slowing Arctic Melting: Beginnings of a Regional

Strategy to Mitigate Climate Change

John Topping, Founder and President, Climate Institute.A lecture to the Hertog Global Strategy Initiative At Columbia

University

June 13, 2013

Record 400ppm CO2 milestone – 14th May 2013

Forces Occurring Together to Accelerate Stress

Climate change not the only adverse human or natural stress affecting ecosystems or areas in which we live.

Growing ocean acidification.

Depletion of fossil aquifers.

Land degradation.

Destruction of forests, especially in the tropical regions.Source: Upwell

conservation

Attribution: Jeff Masters, Ph.D, Weather Underground (2013)

Arctic Sea Ice Volume Reductions

Momentum Gaining on the Climate Front

China (the leading greenhouse emitter) — spurred by air quality, climate and trade competiveness concerns — is moving to institute a greenhouse cap and trade system and national carbon tax, and is now largest investor in renewable energy.

U.S., historically source of about a third of industrial era anthropogenic greenhouse emissions, seems on a downward trajectory despite impasse in Washington.

Increased efficiency (in energy use and vehicles), state and city renewable energy incentives, and natural gas for coal substitution are helping drive this trend.

A draft ANSI voluntary Life Cycle Assessment standard providing the most ambitious standards on the planet may become final in 2014; the standard would value reductions of black carbon and establish an Arctic Regional Warming Indicator.

Global Motivation: Benefits from Action

There is growing interest in rich and poor nations alike in acting to slash emissions of black carbon and other substances whose reduction will yield health and climate benefits.

Mexico, driven by a public clamor for climate protection, in June 2012 adopted the most ambitious climate protection law of any OECD nation.

Pictured: Tickell Network Climate Theatre. Flor del Bosque Educational Park, Mexico.

Lecture Focus

TARGET: Short-Lived Climate Forcers & Regions

Double down on growing interest by focusing efforts on black carbon and the Arctic.

Other SLCFs: tropospheric ozone forming compounds and methane

Other regions near tipping point: the Himalayas- Tibetan Plateau, the Andes and Amazonian Basin, and Antarctica.

Arctic Climate Action Registry (ACAR)

Effort of the Climate Institute, other US and international NGOs and climate and forestry scientists to increase incentives for reduction of SLCFs.

Seeks to slow the precipitous loss of Arctic sea ice that could rescramble weather and ocean circulation patterns.

Establish a precedent for regionally focused strategies to minimize climate disruption in other vulnerable regions.

Short-Lived Climate Forcers

Amazon Amazon land and

conversion forest loss may push to point of dieback. Andes may be affected both by warming and SLCF deposition. Could mean loss of water resources for tens of millions.

Himalayas/Tibetan Plateau   Water resources for at least a

sixth of humanity could be imperiled.

Decisive global action targeting SLCFs the next best step to bide time for the regions in danger of irreversible damage. Increased efficiency, non or

low-carbon fuel sources. Antarctic

Parts warming rapidly with potential for adding to sea level rise from melting of glaciers in  Greenland and other regions and warming of upper layers of ocean.

Global Action on Short-Lived Climate Forcers

Climate and Clean Air Coalition

Rapid growth of CCAC action on black carbon, methane, hydrofluorocarbons  and tropospheric ozone that together produce as much an effect on climate change as CO2. 

Reductions will often yield not only climate benefits but enhanced  human health (BC), and sometimes economic (recovery for energy of leaking methane) or safety (harvesting of methane from coal mines).

Challenges Barrier to be overcome:

failure of Kyoto Protocol-based trading systems to incentivize these reductions.

Tropospheric Ozone

Formed as a secondary product of other emissions By oxidation of methane, CO, and VOCs in the presence

of NOx

Once formed, lasts 20 – 24 days

Warming Effect is ~ 0.3 W/m2

18% of CO2 effect

Methane

Atmospheric concentrations rising after several years of stability

Lasts 12 years in atmosphere

Warming Effect is ~ 0.86 W/m2

Just over 50% of CO2 effect

Win-Win opportunities to reduce methane

Black Carbon (Soot)

Dark-colored type of aerosol / particulate matter (PM) Absorbs sunlight and heat Stays in atmosphere for only 1 – 2 weeks

Atmospheric Warming Effect is 0.44 – 0.9 W/m2

28 – 55% of CO2 effect

Decreased snow albedo in Arctic and Himalayas Enormous regional increase in warming effect Globally averaged, is an additional 0.1 – 0.2 W/m2

Harmful to human respiratory health

Regional Effects

• “Tropospheric ozone and BC snow albedo effect contribute substantially to rapid warming and sea ice loss in the Arctic” - James Hansen et al. 2005

• Arctic Warming Since 1890 (Shindell et al. 2009)• Black carbon: 0.5 – 1.4˚C• Trop. Ozone: 0.2 – 0.4˚C

• Shindell estimates that combined sulfate decrease and BC increase caused 75% of direct Arctic warming over past 30 years

Benefits from Black Carbon Reduction

Atmospheric loading and warming influence will drop as emissions drop

Acute decrease in Arctic warming

Reducing certain BC emissions will result in: Reduced indoor air pollution, which kills 1.9M annually Reduced outdoor air pollution, which kills 0.8M annually

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Warming Effect During 21st CenturyAggressive Reductions in both GHGs and Black Carbon

Credit: MacCracken 2009

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Near-Term Changes in Warming EffectBlack Carbon is Critical to Reducing Near-Term Warming

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Aggressive Reductionsin BC and GHGs

Credit: MacCracken 2009

Biomass Burning - Largest Current Arctic Climate

Forcer

Recent studies indicate that about 75% of light absorbing aerosols (black and brown carbon) deposited on Arctic snow and ice are attributable to crop and grass burning (Hegg et al, 2010).

ARCTAS mission found it contributed 39 % of Arctic black carbon, 69 % of Arctic methane and 38 % of Arctic carbon monoxide, a precursor of tropospheric ozone. (Wedderburn- Bisshop, 2012).

Agricultural and grassland fires are responsible for 69 % of Arctic fire activity with forest and shrubland fires responsible for 24% (Wedderburn- Bisshop, 2012).

Biomass Burning - Largest Current Arctic Climate

Forcer

The lead sources of these emissions in descending order are Russia, Kazakhstan, China, United States, Canada and Ukraine (Pettus, Clean Air Task Force, 2009).

Most of these nations have some form of restrictions on agricultural burning but enforcement is generally lax, especially in places such as northeast China where emissions are most likely to affect the Arctic (Pettus, 2009).

Potential mitigation strategies might include increased enforcement of existing rules and changed seasonality of burning.

Arctic Air Overflights - A Source of Black Carbon and

Other Climate Warming Emissions

Beginning in 1998 when Russia agreed to permit foreign carrier commercial aviation overflights this has grown to over 40,000 flights a year with significant climate forcing effect. Especially significant is the residence time of black carbon emitted in the stratosphere, as much as an order of magnitude greater than at ground level (Jacobson et al. 2012)

Mark Jacobson at Stanford and colleagues, after an extensive analysis of trans- Arctic flights, concluded it would be possible to reduce emissions by as much as 83 % by rerouting. They project this could significantly delay loss of Arctic sea ice with annual costs globally of about $ 99 million. (Jacobson et al. 2012).

Arctic Air Overflights - A Source of Black Carbon and Other

Climate Warming Emissions

Breakthroughs in early June by members of International Air Transport Association (IATA) in urging governments to adopt a single market based system to offset post -2020 growth in aircraft emissions may be a heartening sign of growing airline receptivity to climate friendly activity.

Development Related to Arctic Warming Produces Sizable Emissions Growth

Shipping - Volume likely to increase as sea ice melts 

Potential response - Requiring electrostatic precipitators or changed fuel mix to minimize black carbon emissions on both commercial vessels and icebreakers.

Oil and gas development - Likely to increase, especially in Russia and some other offshore parts of Arctic and near Arctic.

Potential response - Besides seeking universal provisions to minimize oil spills, encouraging near zero black carbon emissions and zero methane releases.

Mining - Although a modest source of emissions, mostly in Russia and Canada, there is large potential for growth of mining industry in Greenland with international investors looking to extract iron and rare earths.

Possible Regional Geoengineering

Strategies

Changing seasonality of icebreaking- doing less ice breaking in the spring when it reinforces sea ice loss and more in the fall. 

Catalyzing natural processes to absorb Arctic methane-researchers are looking at use of supplements such as nitrate or sulfate to boost productivity of methanotrophs. Bacteria are responsible for

aerobic methane oxidation; archea are responsible for anaerobic oxidation. This might reduce methane release in Arctic oceans, as well as promote a more suitable climate for fish habitation, and therefore for fish farms.

Sending small ships to disperse sea salt, forming clouds to hold in Arctic heat- Salter and Latham and a UK based Arctic Methane Emergency Group have been the leading advocates for this strategy.

The Four Crucial Regions

Himalayas

Amazonian Rainforest & Andean

Mountains

The Four Crucial Regions

Antarctica The Arctic

South America: Closely Interconnected

Ecosystems

Amazon Rainforest The Amazonian Rainforest is the

greatest treasure trove of biodiversity on the planet.

It is disappearing rapidly due to land conversion for cattle farms, mining and small farmers.

Brazilian Scientists (Simoes & Evangelista) report that emissions from burning for land clearing in the Amazon, especially for cattle farms, may be producing as much as half of black carbon deposition in the Antarctic.

Andes Mountains Glaciers in the mountains

provide water supplies for tens of millions in South America and hydropower for millions.

Rapid glacial melt imperils this water supply.

Efforts are underway to install cleaner cook stoves in many Andean communities and reduce black carbon emissions.

Antarctica

Glacial thinning:

Glaciers in Antarctica contain about 70% of all the fresh water on Earth; if all were to melt, global sea levels would rise well over 60 meters- more than 200 feet.

Antarctica

There is a modest net loss now from Antarctica, about 150 cubic kilometers each year (Hansen, 2007) but if this accelerates it could add significantly to global sea level rise.

Deposition of significant quantities of black carbon from fires in South America and Africa has been detected in Antarctica and linked to agricultural burning. No linkage has yet been done on their role in ice loss.

Although Antarctica is the coldest region on Earth, some portions in the Antarctic Peninsula and West Antarctic are among the most rapidly warming parts of the planet.

Most Antarctic ice loss seems attributable to interaction with warming waters of the Southern Ocean more than to warming on the land.

The Himalayas

Himalayas – Tibetan Plateau

Emissions of black carbon, especially from diesel transport and cook stoves, appear as great a factor as overall global warming in spurring glacial melting.

Indian Supreme Court has mandated that in public transport compressed natural gas vehicles replace current diesel and other vehicles.

Provides water supplies for about one of every six humans on earth. Rapid glacial melt underway that may reduce water availability.

Project Surya seeks to reduce black carbon emissions, save lives and reduce climate forcing through replacement of cook stoves and kerosene lanterns with cleaner alternatives  http://www.projectsurya.org/

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The Arctic’s Role

And Functions of the Arctic Climate Action Registry

Climate Change in the Arctic

In September 2012, a new record level of Ice melt was recorded. At this rate the Arctic could be ice-free in summer by the end of this decade.

Economist, August 28 2012

Climate Change in the Arctic

Melting of the Greenland ice sheet, contributing to global sea level rise

Scientists at NASA first thought satellite readings were a mistake after images showed 97% surface melt over four days

Significant erosion, threatening villages

Collapse of whole ecosystems

Melting of permafrost and release of trapped methane hydrates

Chief Causes

Global Warming CO2 and other Kyoto GHGs

Arctic Regional Contribution (50-70%) Methane Black Carbon Tropospheric Ozone

Methane Hydrate Pulse5,000 billion tons trapped ~

all CO2 and CH4 combined

Climate Change Impacts

Displacement of villages due to sea level rise and melting permafrost

Public infrastructure damage

Ecosystem impacts (e.g., new pests, migratory species)

Food security (e.g., fisheries, subsistence hunting, melting ice cellars)

Human health issues (e.g., disease, asthma)

ALASKA

The Government Accountability Office (GAO) has reported:

Almost all of Alaska’s 200+ villages have been affected by flooding and erosion, with 4 requiring relocation

31 villages face imminent threats

12 of the 31 villages are exploring relocation options

Climate Change Impacts

Locations of Arctic Indigenous Peoples

Significance for International Security

Accelerated glacial melting in Greenland and Antarctica could enhance projected sea level rise, threatening the US, other coastal nations and island states.

Potential unpredictable effects on weather patterns and world agriculture at loss of year round Arctic Sea Ice.

Arctic Climate Action Registry (ACAR)

An effort to incentivize reductions of emissions of soot, methane and tropospheric ozone forming compounds.

No other organization in the world is taking action fast enough to save the Arctic. The Arctic Climate Action Registry will certify projects that immediately slow the meltdown in the Arctic using metrics defined in the new Draft American (ANSI) Greenhouse Gas Accounting Standard.

The Arctic Climate Action Registry Network is a social network consisting of scientists, business leaders, government officials, educators, and consumers. Its goal is to help members communicate about taking action to save the Arctic.

If successful, could be adapted and extended to the Antarctic, Amazon-Andes and Himalayas.

ACAR Vision, Mission and Strategy

VISION: Slow down and ultimately end climate change in the Arctic region and, in so doing, slow down climate change around the globe.

MISSION: Mitigate greenhouse gases and other climate forcers affecting the Arctic region.

STRATEGY: Stimulate projects and activities in support of our mission, based on incentives and market mechanisms, with measurable progress within the decade.

ACAR Participants

TRANSACTIONAL REGISTRY

Managed by the American Carbon RegistryBased on Arctic Climate

Metricsfrom LEO-SCS-002

ARCTIC CLIMATE PROTECTION NETWORK

Companies Government agencies

InstitutionsIndividuals

ARCTIC CLIMATE FOOTPRINT &

3rd PARTY OFFSET VERIFICATION

SCS Global Services

ACAR HOME The Climate InstituteSteering Committee

Current Steering Committee Members

Charles Bayless, Chair, Chairmen of the Board Essential Power

Luis Roberto Acosta, President, Instituto del Clima

Senator Heherson Alvarez, Commissioner for Climate Change, Philippines; Former Philippine Secretary of the Department of Agrarian Reform and the Department of Environment and Natural Resources

Steve Apfelbaum, President, Applied Ecological Services

Paul Bartlett, Environmental Scientist

Robert W. Corell, Principal, Global Environmental Technology Foundation; Chair, Arctic Climate Impact Assessment

Gary Dodge, Director of Science and Certification, Forest Stewardship Council U.S.

Robert Engelman, President, Worldwatch Institute

Peter A. Globensky, Principal Consultant, BASA; Former CEO, Canadian Council of Ministers of the Environment

Current Steering Committee Members

John Kadyszewski, Director, American Carbon Registry

Stephen Leatherman, Professor and Director of the Laboratory for Coastal Research at Florida International University

Michael MacCracken, Chief Scientist, The Climate Institute

John Noel, President, Southern Alliance for Clean Energy

Conn Nugent, President, Heinz Center

Ata Qureshi, Team Leader, Asia Climate Study.

Stanley Rhodes, President, Scientific Certification Systems

Terry Root, Senior Fellow, Stanford Woods Institute for the Environment

Linda Schade, Executive Director, The Black Carbon Reduction Council

Tim Warman, Former Vice President, Climate and Energy, National Wildlife Federation

Carol Werner, Executive Director, Environmental and Energy Study Institute

Daniel Wildcat, Professor, Haskell Indian Nations University; Founder, Indigenous Peoples Climate Change Working Group

ACAR Registry Project Opportunities

Examples

Shipping – Equipping ships with technology to capture black carbon, and using or purchasing turbine-powered ships.

Agricultural Burning - Reduce and change seasonality

Airlines – Reduced emissions from airline fleets, e.g., some rerouting of flights, increased fuel efficiency.

Pollution Prevention –Stack emissions captured at electricity production and other industrial facilities.

Methane Capture – Methane capture for energy generation.

Natural Cycle Enhancement – Micronization of sea water to help cool the region, i.e., ships generating spray to promote cooling.

Some Encouraging Trends

U.S. Greenhouse Gases

Total emissions levels have dropped almost to 1994 levels due largely to increased efficiency and greater use of renewables.

Should continue by a substitution in U.S. of natural gas for coal in the utility sector.

To maximize climate benefits of coal to gas switch, it is crucial to minimize methane leaks from  natural gas system.

Energy Use & Emissions

U.S. Position: Opportunity

Leverage our good fortune as soon-to-be world’s leading energy producer; ensure continued prosperity and catalyze effective national and international response to climate change.

In natural gas sector: hold overall  methane leakage from natural   gas extraction, transmission and  distribution to below 1%.

How can our energy planning and foreign policy promote results that will sustain our national economy, reduce risk of climate disruption, and meld into climate protection responses, benefits to human health and food production?

U.S. Opportunities

Wide political support here. April 22, 2009, joint sponsorship of successful legislation by Senators Inhofe, Carper, Boxer and Kerry to mandate U.S. EPA to develop options for black carbon reductions here and abroad.

Encourage special focus on emission reductions in regions such as Arctic, where we may be at near irreversible climate tipping points.

Reduce federal and state regulatory barriers to energy recycling (cogeneration).

Promote aggressive international attack on Short- Lived Climate Forcers that affect climate and human health and  where benefits can be realized soon.

China Moving Forward in Climate Protection

 

As Ramez Naam noted in Slate May 8, 2013 China now seems determined to be a world leader in climate protection:

1. Moving forward with a cap and trade plan in seven regions Including provinces of Guangdong and Hubei and cities of Beijing, Shanghai, Tianjin, Chongqing and Shenzhen, with a goal of linking by 2020 to a national carbon market.

2. Planning to institute a tax on CO2 emissions, as early as 2015 or 2016.

China Moving Forward in Climate Protection

3. Investing $65 billion on renewable energy in 2012, compared with $35 billion in the US the same year.  4. China now produces over half of the

global production of solar panels with the US now producing less than 10 percent.

Significantly, driven by both climate and air quality concerns, China appears to be considering the integration of valuation for reduction of emissions of black carbon and other short- lived climate forcers into their cap and trade plans.

A chef in China's Shandong province removes chicken from a solar cooker

A Region Specific Mitigation Strategy

Himalayan-Tibetan Plateau: rapid glacial melt imperils the water supplies of much of humanity; mitigation action (cleaner cook stoves and transport systems) can avert hundreds of thousands of air pollution deaths annually.

Latin America: glacial melt in the Andean region and drying out of key agricultural lands in South America is spurred by burning and land conversion.

ACAR to leverage growing public interest in slowing climatic disruption in the regions closest to a tipping point, corporate interest in averting climatic chaos and voluntary emission reduction incentive systems to slow loss of sea ice and glacial melting.

ACAR TARGET: Black carbon, ozone forming compounds and methane

Climate Change and the

International Stage

Thank you! Questions/Comments?

Acknowledgments: Principally Humiun Miah and Jillian Jordan, thanks also to Michael MacCracken, John - Michael Cross, Matt Vetter, Christopher Philipp, and Linda Brown.

www.climate.org & Arctic Climate Action Registry (ACAR) at http://www.climate.org/programs/acar/index.html