Colorado leadership v4
-
Upload
brandon-williams -
Category
Technology
-
view
561 -
download
0
description
Transcript of Colorado leadership v4
The New Digital Reality
Presentation to Team Colorado Leadership
Greg Maffei11.30.2011
Digital Godzilla ‘Eats’ All King Kongs…
2
Digital Explosion• YouTube
• 3b views/day = 92b views/month• Avg user spends 25 minutes/visit• 48 hrs. of video uploaded/minute• Largest TV station in world• Broad demographic: 18 - 54 years old
• Facebook• 800m users• Avg user has 130 friends
• Avg user spends ~1 hour on FB /day • 50% of users log on daily
• 250m photos uploaded/day• >7m apps/websites integrated• >$4m revenue in 2011• Worth > $100b
3
Number of Facebook Users(m)
YouTube Videos Uploaded per Minute
(hours)
1/08 9/08 5/09 1/10 9/10 5/110
10
20
30
40
50
60
2/09 8/09 2/10 8/10 2/11 8/110
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
Facebook Phenomenon
4
Years to reach 50 million users
38 Years
Radio
3 Years
iPod
Added over 200m
users in less than 1
year
4 Years
Internet
13 Years
Television
1. China 1,336,450,000 6. Brazil 193,099,000
2. India 1,182,330,000 7. Pakistan 169,835,000
3. Facebook 800,000,000 8. Bangladesh 162,221,000
4. United States 309,573,000 9. Nigeria 154,729,000
5. Indonesia 231,369,500 10. Russia 141,927,297
• Changes habits and actions • Fastest growing segment is 50+; >40% of those online use social media• 1 in 5 couples married in US met via social media• Also 1 in 5 divorces are blamed on Facebook• Overtakes porn as #1 activity on web• Some universities have stopped issuing email accounts
• And business…• Social gamers will buy $6b in
virtual goods by 2013• Movie goers only buy $2.5b
in real goods• Zynga
• 232m monthly active users, 60m daily active users
• ~$1b annual revenue run-rate• >90% of revenue from
purchasing virtual currency• $15 market value?
Social Media Changing Behaviors
5
The Top 10 Games on Facebook
INDICATES A ZYNGA GAME
Digital Media Global Reach
• Media is local; technology is global• Wikipedia: over 15m articles; 78% non-English
• 70% of YouTube's traffic comes from outside of US• Microsoft, Google, Oracle have >50% of revenue
from outside US…no media company• Twitter - integral force in “Arab Spring”
• China’s closed Internet exception?• China has #1 and #2 largest broadband providers
in world• QZone among world’s largest social networks
with 500m users• Chinese prefer IM over email
6
Destruction of Traditional Music• Album was an artificial marketing concept
• Priced too high?• Economics destroyed through piracy, Apple’s unbundling• Consumers get what they want…
7
Destruction of Traditional Media
• Newspapers - Internet premium content for free• 24 out of 25 largest
lost circulation• Cost-cutting• More effective revenue
models: eBay, Craigslist, Zillow
• Negative cycle…
8
• Decline of TV stations• 2011 local advertising down 10%
• Once you train them on free…• More market value destroyed than created?
9
Moore’s Law Goes to Movies
Downloading Spiderman 1.27 Gigabytes
10
Download time and Cost
Storage
82 Computers x $3,572
$292,904
1978Cost to store 1.27GB
~2.23 IBM 3370 units @ $114,000 each
$254,000
Cost to playback
300kb/second – 9,407 hours$48.70/hour
$458,120
11
Cost to playback
Download time and Cost
Storage
$199?$99?
2011Cost to store 1.27GB
$199 for 500GB
$.51
5 minutes @ $.10 per GBX1.27GB
$.13
12
Free
Storage 2038
~$254,0001978
2011
2038
~$.51
13
$.01
Download Time & Costs 2038
$458,12019789,407 hours @ 300bps
$.13201115 minutes @ 30Mbps
20382 sec @5Gbps
14
1978
<$1.00
Cost to Playback 2038$292,904
2011
2038
$199
Decline of TV?• Internet up, TV down?
• 4 hours/HH in ’75, 6 hours in ’85, 8.5 hours in ‘10
• Viewership fragmenting and aging• Networks declining
• Online viewing up 7x in a year• Netflix has 23m customers
• Will cable companies get disintermediated?
• Will the cable bundle survive?• The Longhorn Network• DIRECTV’s $90 ARPU v. Netflix’s $7.99
• Mediocre content will get swamped• Free/user-generated beats mediocre
• Compelling content will do fine• 9 min YouTube video can’t compete with
The Sopranos
• Online aggregators will create video portals and build powerful new businesses…
15
Median Age of Nightly News Viewers2004 - 2009
Median Age of Morning News Viewers2004 - 2009
Internet Rules• If it can be free, it
will be
16
• If it can be known, it will be
• If it can be rated, it will be
• It’s who you know, not just what you know
17
eCommerce History• Web 1.0 – Information
• Internet provides transparency and information, but limited capacity to absorb the data
• Web 2.0 – Evaluation• Look to “knowledgeable influencers” when making decisions
• Web 3.0 – Recommendations• Facebook: volume of recommendations, one friend recommends
something we consider it, three friends recommend certain to consider it
• Web 3.1 – Not just any friend• Google+ circles - look to quality of relations/closeness• Lockerz Decalz / FWB - advocacy
18
Recommendations & Referrals
19
Recommendations and Referrals
20
Social Graph
Discover => Evaluate => Buy
22
Group Buying
23
See who’s sitting where
Tag your seat
Tag your friends
Consumers who connect through Facebook spend $5 more on average
than those who just buy tickets
24
Forums and Communities
25
26
Field Tests
27
Online Education• Online education is $34b industry
• Currently >3m online-only students in US• ~50% of college students take at least one class online• Nearly half of online students are 26+• Phoenix University largest US university
• Enrolls >500k students = >10x University of Colorado• Spends $200m/year improving it’s teaching…what can CU
spend?
• By 2019, estimated that 50% of all classes taught will be delivered online• Many of these will be available for free
• Encyclopedia Britannica => Microsoft Encarta => Wikipedia
Education Ready To Be Disrupted• Education, like housing, overpriced bubble
• Consumers/students not getting their money’s worth• Ineffectiveness of college degree• Need for technical/continuous education• Rise of part-time students• Personalization - different rate at which students learn• Students perform better learning online than with face-to-face
instruction*
• Khan Academy – 2,100 free educational videos• From 1+1=2 to college-level physics, finance• Linking to Facebook to track progress• Raised $5m from Bill Gates and others
• Open Culture, Academic Earth, P2PU, Skillshare, Scitable, Skype (connections to professors and tutors)
• 350k lectures on iTunes from Stanford, Yale and Oxford• Stanford University online high school• Students perform better learning online than with face-to-face instruction(1)*Evaluation of Evidence-Based Practices in Online Learning: A Meta-Analysis and Review of Online Learning
Studies, U.S. Department of Education Office of Planning, Evaluation, and Policy Development Policy and Program Studies Service, 2010
30
Disrupting Government• If it can be known, it will be known:
• Wikileaks• Viral videos and photos force greater accountability from public officials - exposing inconsistent policy
positions in US to We Are All Khaled Saeed - Egypt • Increased voter demands for effectiveness and transparency
• If it can be rated, it will be rated:• Increased consumer participation in forums and comment procedures• “Yelping” the DMV• Healthcare – rating doctors, insurance rates, procedure costs• Government 2.0
• Open data movement that combines city data with smartphone apps to improve services• SeeClickFix lets residents file public requests for city services from their mobile phones• Other apps include street sweeper alarms, neighborhood crime notifiers, alerts when people enter
restaurants that recently got low marks on inspections
• If it can be free, it will be:• Post Office “killed” by email• Privatizing/unbundling/forum shopping for “government” services: Fed Ex• Education
• It’s not just what you know, but who you know:• More direct interaction between electeds and citizens (ie, Allen’s Macaaca video, Brownback v.
Tweeting Teen, Huntsman's daughters)• Six years after Katrina, social media totally changed emergency response
• Citizens turn to Facebook and Twitter• Gov encouraging this behavior (i.e. Lifeline Facebook App Challenge)
• Facebook connections and ratings• Occupy Denver…
31
Questions