Colombia: Private Sector Outlook National Business Association of Colombia January 2015.
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Transcript of Colombia: Private Sector Outlook National Business Association of Colombia January 2015.
Colombia: Private Sector Outlook
National Business Association of Colombia
January 2015
ANDI- National Business Association
More than 1200 members which represent 35-40% of Colombia’s GDP
28 specialized sector chambers
Purpose: Represent, provide services and procure for a stable business environment
11 regional branches
International Strategic Allies
Our international network of allies extends through the all continents
Colombia:
Proven strong fundamentals
2000 2013 2014GDP
GDP(US$ Millions) 94,075 378,125 377,185Economic Growth rate 2.9 4.2 4.8GDP per cápita (US$) 2,385 8,025 7,920
Foreign TradeExports (US$ Millions) 13,158 58,822 56,057 Industrial (US$ Millions) 7,034 21,724 19,544Imports (US$ Millions) 11,539 59,397 63,674International Reserves 9,004 43,600 47,323Months of imports 9.4 8.8 8.9
InvestmentInvestment (% GDP) 14.5 27.9 30.1Foreign Direct Investment (US$ Millions) 2,436 16,199 15,500FDI (% GDP) 2.6 4.3 4.1
Debt (% GDP)Foreign Debt (% GDP) 36.3 24.4 24.6Fiscal Debt (% GDP) 31.6 24.4 24.6
Macroeconomic EnvironmentInflation 8.8 1.9 3.6Deposit interest rate (yearly average) 12.1 4.1 4.3
Labour MarketUnemployment rate (yearly average) 16.7 9.7 9.1
Social IndicatorsAffiliates to health services (thousands) 22,756 43,207Poverty rate 55.0 30.6 29.3
COLOMBIA: MAIN INDICATORS
10
2010 2011 2012 2013 Jan-Sep/14Agriculture 0.2 2.1 2.5 5.5 3.6Mining 10.6 14.5 5.6 4.9 0.8
Coal 1.9 14.7 3.9 -4.0 11.6Oil and gas 16.8 17.8 4.6 7.8 -1.7
Manufacturing 1.8 4.7 -1.1 -1.0 0.5Utilities 3.9 3.0 2.1 4.9 4.1Construction -0.1 8.2 6.0 12.0 13.7
Housing -0.3 4.1 5.9 11.4 7.7Infraestructure 0.1 12.9 6.0 12.7 18.4
Retail trade, restaurants & hotels 5.2 6.7 4.3 4.3 5.1Transport, communication & warehousing 6.2 6.6 4.9 3.1 4.4Finance, insurance and real estate 3.6 6.7 5.0 5.0 5.5Government, social and personal services 3.6 3.1 5.0 5.3 5.7
Government 4.3 2.1 4.8 5.9 6.9
GDP 4.0 6.6 4.0 4.7 5.0
COLOMBIA: GDP GROWTH RATE
11
2010 2011 2012 2013 Jan-Sep/14TOTAL GDP 4.0 6.6 4.0 4.7 5.0Imports 10.8 21.5 8.9 4.5 12.6Consumption 5.1 5.5 4.7 4.4 5.3 Households 5.0 6.0 4.4 4.2 5.1
Domestic consumption 4.7 5.9 4.3 4.3 5.1Non durables 3.2 3.4 3.6 4.1 5.2Semi-durable 9.0 14.0 5.1 5.9 4.7Services 4.0 5.4 4.5 4.2 4.5Durables 21.6 21.2 7.6 3.8 8.1
Government 5.6 3.6 5.7 5.8 6.7Investment 4.9 19.0 4.6 6.1 13.0Domestic demand 5.6 8.4 4.6 4.7 7.8Exports 1.3 11.8 6.1 5.4 -0.8
ECONOMIC GROWTH ACCORDING TO EXPENDITURE
Colombia in relation to Latin America
14
GDP Population GDP per capita Intl Reserves FDI InvestmentUS$ Millions Millions US$ US$ Millions US$ Millions % GDP
BRAZIL 2,190,218 199.9 10,958 362,410 61,924 19.2MEXICO 1,327,021 118.2 11,224 176,152 24,600 24.2COLOMBIA 378,125 47.1 8,025 43,600 15,000 23.7ARGENTINA (Official rate) 484,596 41.5 11,679 30,799 9,029 24.2
ARGENTINA (Market rate average) 272,041 41.5 6,556VENEZUELA (Official rate) 367,482 30.0 12,256 21,729 3,152 24.0
VENEZUELA (Market rate average) 34,783 30.0 1,160CHILE 281,666 17.6 16,043 39,903 9,501 25.7PERU 210,349 30.9 6,797 66,279 11,979 27.9ECUADOR 91,412 14.9 6,154 4,051 486 28.2URUGUAY 57,107 3.4 16,836 16,121 3,160 19.7BOLIVIA 29,805 11.0 2,700 14,311 1,287 19.3PARAGUAY 30,558 6.8 4,499 5,832 - 16.6
Sources: Central Banks in each country, IMF, Calculations ANDI
Latin America: Economic Indicators 2013
Industry: Weak recovery
Actively pursuing a global integrated economy
Integration
FTA
Partial Scope Agreements
BIT or double taxation treaties
COLOMBIA: FREE TRADE & ECONOMIC PARTNERSHIP AGREEMENTS
Integration
FTA
Partial Agreements
Investment and double taxation
Potential FTA 20
Population GDP Exports ImportsMillions US$ Millions US$ Millions US$ Millions
Current FTA 1,409 38,600,427 12,392,877 12,294,802Mexico 118 1,327,021 400,106 413,064Triángulo Norte (El Salvador, Guatemala, Honduras) 30 97,447 28,546 43,364CAN (Peru, Ecuador, Bolivia) 57 331,566 87,792 90,776CARICOM (Caribbean Community) 17 17,394 37,435 42,686MERCOSUR 252 293,094 514,418 530,550Chile 18 281,666 92,266 93,002EFTA 13 13,487 524,553 406,520Canada 35 1,825,062 544,065 564,662United States 317 16,724,272 2,276,264 2,744,520Venezuela 30 367,482 91,826 74,594Nicaragua 6 11,284 5,307 7,700European Union 505 17,236,563 7,771,775 7,268,255
Subscribed FTA 233 3,747,627 1,363,238 1,312,014Korea 50 1,197,506 683,911 617,203Costa Rica 5 48,505 17,220 19,308Israel 8 272,737 94,863 91,410Panama 4 40,618 27,504 28,178Pacific Alliance 167 2,188,261 539,740 555,916
FTA under negotiation 127 5,007,203 832,736 957,794Turkey 76 821,798 208,077 267,366Japan 127 5,007,203 832,736 957,794
TOTAL 1,769 47,355,257 14,588,851 14,564,610World 7,162 73,454,493 23,189,386 23,189,386Share 24.7 64.5 62.9 62.8
Source: DANE, MCIT, IMF, WTO, UNCTAD
COLOMBIA: FREE TRADE AGREEMENTS
Country/Zone2013 2013
2012 2013 Jan-Nov/14
Total Exports 57,420 60,667 51,061 43.0 5.7 -4.7 Traditional 40,253 42,238 36,467 56.9 4.9 -3.6 Coffee 2,608 1,910 2,234 38.5 -26.8 31.6 Petroleum 28,421 31,642 27,424 69.6 11.3 -7.4 Coal 8,397 7,805 6,225 39.6 -7.0 5.2 Ferronickel 827 881 584 -14.5 6.6 -7.0 Industrial 23,278 23,652 8,555 26.2 1.6 -6.3
Total Imports 54,675 58,632 49,413 34.4 7.2 7.6 Consumption Goods 11,315 12,705 10,816 25.7 12.3 8.4 Raw Materials 22,609 25,121 21,750 32.0 11.1 9.4 Capital Goods 20,723 20,780 16,829 42.7 0.3 4.9 For Manufacturing 10,495 11,555 9,891 26.0 10.1 6.0 Industrial Machinery 4,380 4,783 3,820 29.7 9.2 -5.4
COLOMBIA: FOREIGN TRADE (Millions US$)
2012 2013 Jan-Nov/14Growth rate (%)
Jan-Oct/142012 2013 Jan-Oct/14 2012 2013
23
2013 Jan-Nov/1458,822 51,061 -4.7 100
Countries with lower exports from Colombia
United States 18,459 12,963 -24.8 25.4Chile 1,572 919 -37.3 1.8Venezuela 2,256 1,861 -12.3 3.6Argentina 433 188 -53.7 0.4Aruba 1,716 1,120 -15.4 2.2Germany 780 577 -22.4 1.1India 2,993 2,696 -5.2 5.3France 327 137 -50.8 0.3Ecuador 1,975 1,700 -5.8 3.3Peru 1,274 1,096 -6.9 2.1United Kingdom 1,116 1,014 -2.7 2.0
35,340 26,455 -20.7
Countries with greater exports from Colombia
China 5,102 5,543 23.4 10.9Panama 3,329 3,417 23.0 6.7Spain 2,879 3,094 20.7 6.1Turkey 624 725 29.4 1.4Mexico 864 850 10.2 1.7Other Countries 4,163 2,994 2.3 5.9Brasil 1,591 1,487 1.7 2.9Netherlands 2,273 1,998 0.5 3.9
23,481 24,605 21.9
COLOMBIA: EXPORTS ACCORDING TO COUNTRY Growth rate Share
24
Exports FOB Imports FOB Trade Balance2014 2014 2013 2014
ALADI 10,663 10,354 39 309Ecuador 1,542 732 940 810Peru 1,018 921 419 97Argentina 162 826 -1,092 -664Brazil 1,383 2,010 -722 -627Chile 868 738 674 130Mexico 796 4,145 -3,764 -3,348Panama 3,049 44 2,408 3,004Venezuela 1,668 368 1,561 1,300
United States 11,994 14,584 3,112 -2,590
European Union 8,211 6,971 1,417 1,240Germany 529 1,981 -1,072 -1,452Spain 2,915 751 1,608 2,165France 103 1,518 -802 -1,415Italy 830 788 -390 42Netherland 1,919 234 1,594 1,685United Kingdom 957 489 548 468
Japan 348 1,209 -832 -860China 5,406 9,119 -4,330 -3,713India 2,374 1,090 1,471 1,284Korea 96 1,146 -896 -1,050
Other Countries 6,173 3,824 2,198 2,349
Total 47,158 50,754 1,507 -3,596
COLOMBIA: TRADE BALANCEJanuary-October (Millions US$)
Improvement in social issues
26
27
Successful security policy
28
29
Favourable macroeconomic environment
Colombia: Challenges and opportunities
Challenges of the near future• Competitive economic growth
• Maximize opportunities• Colombia´s growing role in the international context
• Reliable country:• FDI• Financial resources• Foreign trade• Technology
• Competitiviness Agenda• Infrastructure• New markets• Capital markets• Science and Technology• Human Capital• Formalization 33
Overall economic growth
Opportunities in all economic activities
34
35
37
Challenges of the near future• Competitive economic growth
• Maximizing present opportunities• Colombia´s growing role in the international context
• Reliable country:• FDI• Financial resources• Foreign trade• Technology
• Competitiviness Agenda• Infrastructure• New markets• Capital markets• Science and Technology• Human Capital• Formalization 38
39
41
Challenges of the near future• Competitive economic growth
• Maximizing present opportunities• Colombia´s growing role in the international context
• Reliable country:• FDI• Financial resources• Foreign trade• Technology
• Competitiviness Agenda• Infrastructure• New markets• Capital markets• Innovation, Science and Technology• Education - Human Capital• Formalization 42
Economic Relations between
Colombia and France
43
The Colombian private sector looks forward to a greater involvement with
France and French partners
http://www.andi.com.co