Social Europe

Collating the evidence about free movement of

workers

Laurent Aujean Employment analysis Unit DG Employment, Social Affairs and Inclusion Brussels, 27 January 2015

Outline

1. Data about volume of intra-EU mobility and recent trends

2. How accurate are the statistics? 3. Some evidence on the benefits of mobility and

potential challenges

EU citizens working in other EU Member States

Around 8 million econ. active EU citizens living in another MS in 2013 (3.3% of the labour force) Sharp increase in mobility since 2004

But remains below number of econ. active third-

country nationals (10.6 millions or 4.3%) …and annual mobility rate ten times lower than in

the USA Other forms than residential mobility

Source: Eurostat, LFS 2013.

In most destination countries: limited inflows

Recent (< 10 years) intra-EU movers (econ. active) in % of labour force of country of residence (2013)

Source: Eurostat, LFS 2013.

Large outflows from some origin countries

Recent (< 10 years) intra-EU movers (econ. active) in % of labour force of country of origin (2013)

Recent trends in intra-EU mobility

Changing patterns in terms of origin country

Source: Eurostat, LFS 2013.

Economically active EU foreigners, residing for < 5 years in an EU country, by group of origin countries (in ,1000)

…and countries of destination

Source: Eurostat, LFS 2013.

Distribution of economically active intra-EU movers (established for less than 5 years in 2008 and 2013) by destination country

Growing share of tertiary graduates among intra-EU movers

Distribution of economically active intra-EU movers (established for less than 5 years in 2008 and 2013) – by level of education and citizenship groups, as % of the total

How accurate are the statistics?

• Free movement => less possibilities to count people • Use of migration statistics and EU-Labour force survey • But under-estimation and delay • Problem for local authorities - forthcoming Eurofound report • Impact of (de)registration practices • Need to combine various data sources • Other forms of mobility

Some evidence on the impact Mobility is responsive to labour market needs…in a flexible way (‘People move where jobs are’) In destination countries:

Limited inflows in most Member States Positive contribution to GDP (neutral on GDP/capita) Limited impact on wages and unemployment of local

workers No evidence of over-use of social security benefits and

some estimates pointing to ‘positive fiscal contributions’

EU mobile citizens are more likely to be economically active

than national citizens

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EU mobile citizens more likely to be in employment….but not in all countries

Labour market status of working-age (15-64) intra-EU movers and nationals (2013), by country of residence

Some evidence on the impact Mobility is responsive to labour market needs…in a flexible way (‘People move where jobs are’) In destination countries:

Limited inflows in most Member States Positive contribution to GDP (neutral on GDP/capita) No evidence of displacement of local workers No evidence of over-use of social security benefits and

some estimates pointing to ‘positive fiscal contributions’ In origin countries:

Relieving pressure in short-run – but risk in long-run, especially if movers are young and highly educated

But movers abroad send remittances back home Mobility may be temporary: some of them come back, with

additional experience No evidence of large ‘brain drain’ phenomenon but some

sectors (health) can be strongly impacted

Large over-representation of highly educated among movers from EU-15 – not from EU8 and EU2

Source: Eurostat EU-LFS

Percentage of highly educated workers among recent (<10 years) economically active mobile EU citizens and among labour force in countries of origin, by group of countries, 2013

Potential challenges related to mobility

Not a long-term solution to demographic ageing or skills shortages if all EU MS affected to the same extent

‘Brain waste’: under-use of skills of migrants Difficulties in labour market integration Concentration in specific areas / sectors Risk of exploitation and social dumping – in particular for workers moving for temporary periods

'Brain waste' among intra-EU movers Over-qualification rate among recently established (< 5 years) foreigners by group of nationality (% of highly educated working in low or medium- skilled occupations)

Source: Eurostat, LFS. Highly educated= ISCED 5-6; Low and medium-skilled occupations= ISCO 4-8.

Sources of information EU Employment and Social situation Quarterly review 'Mobility

supplement' June 2014 (and June 2013) Employment and Social Developments in Europe Review 2011

(chapter 6 on intra-EU mobility) and 2013 (chapter 5 on Convergence and divergence in EMU)

European Commission communications on: Free movement of EU citizens (Nov. 2013) Functioning of transitional arrangements (Nov.2011) Social Situation Monitor Note on Access of mobile EU citizens to social

protection (Feb. 2014) GHK-ICF study on Impact of non-active EU mobile citizens on social

security (Oct. 2013) Report by Network of expert on intra-EU mobility – social security

coordination and free movement of workers: '2014 Annual report on labour mobility'

Thank you for your attention

Laurent Aujean Laurent.aujean@ec.europa.eu

Additional slides

Distribution by country of residence (2013)

Residents for less than 10 years Residents for 10 years and more

Source: Eurostat, LFS 2013. Intra-EU movers being economically active.

Distribution by country of origin (2013) Abroad for less than 10 years Abroad for 10 years and more

Source: Eurostat, LFS 2013. Intra-EU movers being economically active.

Distribution by countries of destination

Source: Eurostat, LFS 2013.

Distribution of economically active intra-EU movers (established for less than 5 years in 2008 and 2013) – by destination country and

citizenship group, as % of the total

2008 2013 2008 2013 2008 2013 2008 2013 2008 2013UK 30 31 54 43 5 18 29 29 23 25DE 13 25 13 29 6 21 16 26 18 21IT 6 6 2 1 19 25 (1) : 2 1BE 4 6 2 3 1 6 5 6 10 11ES 20 6 2 1 57 12 17 7 9 6FR 6 6 (1) 2 2 2 20 17 10 6AT 3 5 2 5 1 3 (2) 2 7 8IE 9 3 18 4 1 1 4 2 6 3

Others 9 13 6 11 7 12 8 10 15 19

Destination country

EU-10 EU-2 Southern EU-15 Other EU-15All EU-28 movers

Recent intra-EU movers are young – but 'less than before'

Distribution of economically active intra-EU movers (established for less than 5 years in 2008 and 2013) – by age group, as % of the total

Source: Eurostat, LFS 2013.

Various situations across Central and Eastern MS

Source: Eurostat EU-LFS

Percentage of highly educated workers among recent (<10 years) economically active mobile EU citizens and among labour force in countries of origin, 2013

Growing percentage of tertiary graduates

Source : Eurostat, Education statistics

Link between share of self-employed and openess of labour market

Share of self-employed among citizens from 2004 and 2007 accession countries being in employment, by group of citizenship in 2008 and 2013

Source: Eurostat, LFS.

Various sectoral distributions across groups Distribution of employment by sector, among recent movers (<10 years) by group of citizenship - and compared to nationals, 2013

Source: Eurostat, LFS. Notes: Cells in orange indicate the three top sectors for each group while cells in bold indicate an over-representation (i.e. a share in total employment at least 1.5 times > than the average among nationals). Only 10 NACE sectors presented – representing around 70-80% of total employment for all groups.

NACE sectors Nationals Other EU-15 South EU-15 EU-10 EU-2 Non-EUManufacturing 15.6 11.8 10.9 20.1 10.4 9.8

Wholesale and retail trade 14.3 12.0 11.5 13.2 7.7 12.5Health and social work 10.9 8.5 6.4 7.3 5.9 8.6

Education 7.7 10.5 7.4 2.3 0.9 4.0Public administration and defence 7.4 2.5 1.4 0.7 0.4 1.5

Construction 6.8 4.4 9.4 12.1 17.1 6.7Professional, scientific and technical 5.4 10.2 5.9 3.5 1.7 4.4

Accomodation and food 4.0 6.6 15.5 12.1 12.3 13.0Administrative and support service 3.8 4.9 8.2 8.2 8.8 7.0

Activities of households as employers 0.7 0.6 3.3 2.7 16.3 13.2

Various occupations across groups Distribution of employment by occupations, among recent movers (<10 years) by group of citizenship - and compared to nationals, 2013