Colin Steiner & Stephen Luke, Mott MacDonald: LRT PPP in Canada and the UK
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Transcript of Colin Steiner & Stephen Luke, Mott MacDonald: LRT PPP in Canada and the UK
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5th March 2014
LRT 2014 : Interna4onal Case Studies UK and Canada
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!"
• Challenges • Cost and funding considerations • Case Study Cross River Tram,
London • Lessons • Some Success stories • Valley Line, Edmonton
Structure
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!"• Poli4cal support
• Promoter Governance
• Past financial performance
• Lack of Standardisa4on (UK)
• Barriers to New Technology
• Historical Op4mism in Planning -‐ Patronage overes4mates and cost Underes4mates
• Risk Transfer vs Risk Sharing
• Public Transport Integra4on -‐ Fair Trade Act and Compe44on Law
• Roadspace realloca4on
• Protracted and costly approvals process
• Public percep4on -‐ Cau4ous and resistant to change even if status quo is ‘sub-‐op4mal’
• Rise in local ac4vism
Challenges
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!"Light rail systems have proven track record ;-
• Growing the public transport market
• Creating modal shift
• Supporting regeneration
• Assisting in the creation of a new urban framework
• BUT
• They are seen as expensive
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!"What are the major cost drivers?
• Rolling stock costs
• Track construction costs
• Utility relocation costs
• And
• ‘Innovative’ funding schemes involving risk transfer
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!"
Funder
Promoter
Provider
DfT
PTE / LA
PSP
local transport capital provision
public investment
Bot
tom
- up
Top
- dow
n
! Affordability ! Procurement Risk
! Project Identification ! Transport Capacity ! Decongestion ! Urban Regeneration ! Social Inclusion ! Customer Satisfaction
! Costs ! Risks ! System Performance ! Patronage? ! Revenue?
! Transport Policy ! Appraisal Guidance ! Procurement Strategy Guidance ! Business Case Approval ! Strategic Prioritisation of Schemes ! Planning Approval
! Local Transport Plan ! Options & Feasibility Study ! LR Project Selection ! Route Selection & Service Pattern ! Transport Integration ! Business Case ! Planning Application ! Specification & Procurement
! Private Sector Investment ! Detailed Design ! Engineering Integration ! Utilities Diversion ! Infrastructure Construction ! Vehicle Supply ! Testing & Commissioning ! Operations ! Lifecycle Maintenance ! Asset Renewal
Risk Transfer?
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!"Modal Efficiency How Total Costs Vary
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8
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!"The Scheme and Objectives
Scheme: • New 16.5 km tramway with core alignment from Euston to Waterloo. Branches to King’s Cross, Camden Town, Peckham and Brixton • Frequent trams on all branches, with maximum frequency in the central core between Euston and Waterloo - 30tphpd • Passenger capacity c.9000pphpd • Approx 30 stops depending on final route option Objectives: • Relieve tube crowding • Stimulate regeneration • Improve accessibility • Better connection between mainline stations • Environmentally friendly mode of transport • Cost efficient
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!"CRT sta4s4cs
• Majority of the areas served are either classed as ‘deprived’ or ‘very deprived’
• Accessibility benefits for approximately 72,000 very socially excluded residents,
• 25-‐60% journey 4me savings from south London
• Increase in employment access for south London (+20%)
• Target groups par4cularly well served by CRT -‐ minori4es, elderly, unemployed
Route
Length
(km)
Construction
Cost 2006 estimate including 53% contingency & Optimism Bias
Forecast Patronage
(Millions per Annum)
16.5 £650m 66
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!"Regenera4on – deprived areas
• One of the key drivers of the project was the regeneration ambitions of the partner boroughs
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!"Relieve peak-‐period Underground crowding
CRT will increase passenger capacity into central London
• CRT will relieve crowding on some of the busiest parts of the Underground -‐ around 3,000 peak-‐hour trips diverted to CRT
Northern Line Charing Cross 2016 DMvDS: 1 Hour Load & Capacity
Southbound
0 2000 4000 6000 8000
10000 12000 14000 16000 18000
CAMDEN TOWN (EDGWARE-SB) MORNINGTON
CRESCENT EUSTON WARREN STREET GOODGE
STREET TOTTENHAM COURT RD NOR LEICESTER
SQUARE NOR CHARING CROSS EMBANKMENT WATERLOO KENNINGTON
Do Minimum 2016 Load Do Something 2016 Load 2016 ''Planning Standard' Capacity 2016 Severely Crowded
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!"Important new links for London’s tourist industry
CRT will provide an important new tourist spine, linking several key tourist abrac4ons
A fast, frequent and accessible link between the Bri4sh Museum and Bri4sh Library would be provided with the Somers Town route op4on
CRT will also provide greater passenger capacity to and from Camden, which would help relieve the weekend crowding at Camden Town sta5on, which causes regular closures at present and causes disrup4on to visitors and local people
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!"Integra4on with other Modes
• Integration with:
• Mainline rail
• Underground
• Bus
• Traffic
• Pedestrians
• Cyclists
• Emergency services
Peckham
Aylesbury Estate
Aldwych
Oval
Elephant & Castle
Holborn
King’s Cross St Pancras
Euston
Camden Town
Waterloo
Brixton Peckham Rye
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!"Camden High Street
• reduce the dominance of traffic in Camden High Street
• large reduc4on in noise and air pollu4on associated with traffic on the high street
• Opportunity to widen pavements at junc4ons and crossings to improve pedestrian circula4on and provide opportuni4es for new sea4ng, public art and new street trees
• boost to the business community
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!"Traffic Management
• The route will be largely on-street. However a traffic restriction, diversion and management strategy will ensure that the tram enjoys a high level of priority due to a mixture of measures including:
• Selective short tram/bus only sections (in green on the right) to reduce general traffic flows along the corridor but allow local access traffic to share the route
• Passing through development sites (e.g. Elephant & Castle and in Peckham) in yellow
• Utilisation of tram or combined bus & tram lanes along main roads
• Signal priority for trams at junctions • Priority for buses on parallel and crossing routes to
mitigate any impact on remaining bus services Potential tram/bus only section
Potential tram route through development
Potential tram route through parkland
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!"Status
• Project mothballed as consequence of GFC and change of Mayor. • Funding/ Affordability
• Strong business case remains
• Strong political support from London boroughs
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!"Maximising the Benefits
• Suppor4ng policies: – Transit Oriented Development – concentra4ng development densi4es around sta4ons
(Texas Medical centre – Houston – 90,000 jobs!) – par4cularly abractors – Simple transport planning objec4ves
• Joining the dots (France) – City Centre – University-‐ Hospital Housing Developments – Malls – Technology Parks
– Suppor4ng bus network – transport interchange and integra4on • Low wait and interchange 4mes • Coordinated 4metables and 4cke4ng
– Kiss and ride/Park and ride – Parking Policy – single most important driver? – High quality modelling and transport planning – benchmarking – does it make sense? (err
on the cau4ous side) – Realis4c project objec4ves – think long term-‐ but do everything to support it (no free
parking or new low density developments!) – Sell the product as well as the idea – transport is like cornflakes, if you don’t sell it, it won’t
sell! – Build support long term through the community – work with the schools and community
groups
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!"Planning Risks
• The day of opening should see the start of a switchover from complaints to strong support
• The problem you WANT is too many passengers – Success sells success
• What could possibly go wrong? – Supposing there are no/few passengers? (it has happened)
• Poor transport planning (poor route etc.) • Poor land use planning (probably both) • Ill defined/erroneous project objec4ves • Transport forecas4ng very inaccurate (key is sense checking everything) • Business case overstated/invented • Poor transport policy (compe4ng buses, brand new freeways etc.) – has there been a change in administra4on?
• Collapse in local/regional economy • Unrealis4c expecta4ons!!
• No-‐one can tell the future, the point is to try to make it happen!
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!"Cost Effec4veness
• Don’t let the perfect be the enemy of the good.. – Don’t gold plate the scheme – most people just want nice transport and high end
finishes are nice but can be implemented later if required/affordable – Seek viable suppliers from the emerging economies (Poland, SE Asia etc.) some of
their stuff is great and much less expensive – Maximise compe44on between suppliers – Decide whether the base scheme will ever be extended – will affect view view on
procurement – Make linkages between projects – there may be saving in procurement to be
made (Dijon/Brest in France ordered trams together and saved about 10%)
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!"Nottingham Express Transit
Line 1: funded by Private Sector who receive monthly payment costs - based on performance. Phase 2: DBFOM concession for extended network construction commenced December 2011. • being partly funded by Work Place Parking Levy • Strong emphasis on transport integration • Robust procurement – designed to give confidence to private sector
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!"Manchester Metrolink
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!"Manchester Metrolink
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!"Bergen Light Rail
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!"
5th March 2014
Valley Line Southeast to West LRT, Edmonton, AB
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!"Edmonton?
• Background to Edmonton LRT
• Low Floor Urban Style LRT – Urban Integra4on
• LRT in a Winter City
• P3 Delivery for the Valley Line
• Concluding Thoughts
BC AB
ON QC
NL SK MB
Edmonton Calgary
Vancouver
Toronto
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!"Exis4ng Edmonton Transit System
• Opened in 1978 as the first LRT system in a mid-‐sized North American city
• High-‐floor, suburban LRT
• 92,000 passengers per day
• Five-‐minute peak opera4ng headway
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!"Exis4ng Edmonton Transit System
• Fully segregated and signalized system
• Operates more like a European heavy rail commuter line
• Very successful
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!"Exis4ng High-‐Floor LRT Systems
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!"To This…..Urban Style Low-‐Floor LRT
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!"Valley Line SE to W LRT – Project Scope
31
• New low-‐floor, urban-‐style LRT
• One tunnel / Five bridges / Two elevated guideways
• 27km of double-‐track
• 29 stops and sta4ons
• New transit centers and park ‘n ride
• New O&M facility
• 67 new 40m, low-‐floor LRVs
• NOT interoperable with exis4ng LRT lines
• Delivered using P3 delivery model
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!"LRT in a ‘Winter City’
• Typically lasts for up to six months of the year
• Temperatures can fall below -‐40°C
• LOTS of snow that lasts for the majority of winter
RESULT:
• Winter is a major risk to the success of urban-‐style LRT if not considered at the outset
• Design for +40°C to -‐40°C temperatures
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!"Key Opera4onal Challenges
33
• Line-‐of-‐Sight
• LRV / road traffic shared opera4ons
• Signalling systems with Line-‐of-‐Sight opera4on (No CBTC)
• Intersec4on full priority / par4al priority
• De-‐graded opera4ng paberns: • Line-‐of-‐Site crossovers / turn-‐back facili4es
•
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!"Cars S4ll Exist
Google Earth
And they s4ll
need access
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!"The Road is Only So Wide (Even in Alberta)
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!"
NEW
NEW NEW
Example: Stony Plain Road Business District
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!"Urban Integra4on Approach
• North America is NOT France!
• Different pedestrian behaviour will influence urban design
• North America typically has a “heavier” approach to stops / sta4ons design
• Elaborate, bespoke urban designs typically result in higher opera4on and maintenance costs
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!"Urban Integra4on Approach
• No panacea – build on experience and lessons learned
• Think about how bidders will react AND price urban design solu4ons
• Keep things simple, modular, and consistent
• Edmonton philosophy – Elegant Simplicity!
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!"Urban Integra4on Examples
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!"Urban Integra4on Examples
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!"Project Delivery Strategy
• Previous projects have been delivered using Design Bid Build and/or Construc4on Management models;
• Valley Line to be delivered as a P3 using a DBFOM model
• Cost of Stage 1 is es4mated at $1.8 billion
• Currently $1.2 billion already secured;
• Working towards an RFQ issued in Spring/Summer 2014
• Financial Close – Winter 2015
• Open to Public Service – 2020
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!"Owners Engineer
• Preliminary Design used as P3 ‘Reference Design’
• Compila4on of P3 Procurement Specifica4ons • Performance Specifica4on
Schedule for discipline • Opera4ons and Maintenance
Schedule – Network defining!
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!"Opera4ons and Maintenance
• Key elements of the schedule for the network: • Interface requirements • Run 4me (average and achievable)
• Fleet requirements
• Opera4onal specific requirements (eg snow clearance)
• Con4nuity of system opera4on ayer the 30 year concession
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!"Concluding Thoughts
• North American ci4es are NOT Lyon or Montpellier! • Consider urban design solu4ons for individual network loca4ons
• Consider opera4ons and maintenance throughout the design process
• Recognize local differen4ators (North American pedestrian behaviour)
• Climate can impact design
• A P3 Delivery model does not necessarily reduce effort during the development phase
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!"Thank You
For more informa5on, please contact: Colin Steiner, C.Eng P.Eng Senior Project Engineer T: 03 9037 7575 E: [email protected]
Mob MacDonald Level 3, 707 Collins Street Melbourne VIC 3008 www.mobmac.com