Colin Flint -- Electoral geography and the social construction of space- The example of the Nazi...

8/13/2019 Colin Flint -- Electoral geography and the social construction of space- The example of the Nazi party in Baden, 1

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GeoJournal 51: 145156, 2000. 2001 Kluwer Academic Publishers. Printed in the Netherlands.

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Electoral geography and the social construction of space: The example of theNazi party in Baden, 19241932

Colin Flint Department of Geography, Pennsylvania State University, University Park, PA 16802, U.S.A. (e-mail: [email protected])

Received 31 August 2000; accepted 5 April 2001

Key words: electoral geography, Nazi party, social theory, spatial statistics

Abstract

This paper makes two contributions towards making a theoretically driven electoral geography a vital component of ge-ography. First, a theoretical framework for the empirical analysis of elections is proposed that views elections as one

component of the social construction of space while simultaneously illustrating how space structures electoral behavior.Second, the concepts of a geographic theory of voter mobilization need to be operationalized in such a way that space isan integral component of statistical analysis. The statistical concepts of spatial dependence and spatial heterogeneity areused to include electoral locales and the regionalization of voter mobilization in the analysis. The theoretical framework andstatistical operationalization proposed are illustrated by a statistical analysis of the growth of the Nazi party vote in Badenbetween 1924 and 1932.

Introduction

The purpose of this paper is to provide a framework foran electoral geography that is driven by the propositions of theory informing the social construction of space. Such asocial constructivist position posits that places and spacesare created by activity and decisions in the spheres of capital,the state, and civil society (Staeheli et al., 1997, p. xxix).The intention is to position electoral geography as a keycomponent of the sub-discipline of political geography bypromoting its ability to test quantitatively and, therefore, de-velop and improve theoretic conceptions of geography. Thetraditional quantitative focus of electoral geographyallows itto both illuminate and test social constructivist claims. Elec-toral geographys analytical approach can be a powerful toolin furthering constructivist conceptions of political and spa-tial dynamics. To do so, electoral geography must become

theory-driven rather than data-driven. The rst argument of this paper is that quantitative electoral geography and theo-ries of the social construction of space should engage eachother to their mutual advantage.

Since Agnews (1987) seminal work Place and Politics ,the notion that there is a recursive and mutually constitutingrelationship between political acts and the social construc-tion of space has become axiomatic in geography and relateddisciplines. Nevertheless, the connection between the po-litical and the social-spatial has not been fully engaged byelectoral geographers (Agnew, 1996a). An explanation forthe weak link between theoretic notions of place and thepolitical acts studied by electoral geographers is that Ag-new (1987) did not provide a means for operationalizing hisframework to facilitate statistical analysis that would explic-

itly test his theory. This is not meant to say that Agnews(1987) notion of place is immeasurable or incompatiblewithmore formal forms of statistical and methodological analy-sis. Rather, the linkages between theory and the possibilitiesof such analysis were not made explicit. Thus, the secondargument made by this paper is that the key to creating aproductive relationship between quantitative electoral ge-ography and social constructivist theory lies in the carefuland precise operationalizationof theoretic concepts and theiranalysis by appropriate techniques.

Electoral geography has developed around the axiomthat place matters. However, a common understanding of what this actually means has not been embraced by geog-raphers, and is also very different from the place-specicbehavior identied by political scientists. Agnew (1987,1996a) has argued that geography is an integral compo-nent of political behavior, that politics are structured by

the uniqueness of places and are one feature that createsplaces. For Agnew (1996b), some geographic approaches,notably the neighborhood effect, promote an epiphenomenalnotion of electoral geography that assumes a national normsomehow disrupted by local peculiarities. Thus, the localnetworks of conversation and social norms investigated bypolitical scientists are locally important but could, in effect,be happening anywhere. Such an approach is also reectedamongst non-geographers studying social movements whotake either a rational choice or institutional approach to lo-cate individual actors within political systems and economicexperiences that are placeless (Marx and McAdam, 1994;McAdam et al., 1996; Tarrow, 1994). On the other hand,geographers are more concerned about the historic devel-opment of particular places and how the ensuing economic,


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institutional and social components of a place structure po-litical action (Agnew, 1987; Grifths and Johnston, 1991;Johnston, 1991; Savage, 1987). For example, networks of lo-cal voter communication are place-specic depending uponthe interpretation of local economic conditions (Johnstonet al., 2000) and political parties vary their nancial sup-port for candidates depending upon place-specic politicalcompetition (Denver and Hands, 1997; Forrest et al., 1999).The distinction between geographic and non-geographic ap-proaches to political behavior is that geographers believeplaces structure or partially determine political opportunities(Dodgshon, 1998; Sack, 1997). Or, in other words, that pol-itics and place are related social processes rather than placebeing a local effect that needs to be added into the explana-tory mix (King, 1996). To further this geographic argument,electoral geographers require a theoretical template that canbe used to design and explain their research to illustrate therecursive relationship between place and politics.

My intention is to illustrate one way in which particularelements of social constructivist theory can be tested using aparticular statistical technique. This paper is not intended tobe a fundamentalist call for a narrowly-dened perspectiveand methodology (see Archer and Shelley, 1986; Johnston,1991; Jones et al., 1992 for examples of other approaches).Building upon Flint (1998a), this paper is a theoretical andmethodological explanation of how the social constructionof space can be utilized by electoral geographers. Afteran outline of a social theoretic perspective on electoral ge-ography and a discussion of how this perspective can beoperationalized to facilitate statistical analysis, the nal sec-tion of the paper will illustrate the interaction between theoryand spatial statistics through an analysis of the growth of theNazi party vote in Baden between 1924 and 1932.

A social constructivist electoral geography

Agnews (1996a) call for a theoretically informed elec-toral geography demands concentration upon the historical-geographical context of electoral behavior. In other words,voting occurs in a spatial setting dened by historicalprocesses and linkages to other places. The theoretical rootsof Agnews perspective are found within the body of knowl-

edge which treats place as a historically contingent process(Pred, 1984), meaning that place is continually made by hu-man agents whose actions are simultaneously structured bythe places in which they live.

Following Preds (1990) perspective, context is the to-getherness of people within places structured by particularinstitutions and the power relations that they serve. Thisis inherently political since the structural nature of placeleads to the articulation of particular questions and the fram-ing of viable responses. One outlet of these responses maybe electoral behavior. By unpacking Preds denition of place, four key inuences upon electoral behavior can bedistinguished; knowledge, institutions, ideology and predis-position. The relationship between these inuences is, of course, recursive.

Social behavior within a particular place is a function of how the immediate social setting interacts with social re-lations distanced in time and space (Giddens, 1984). Withregard to electoral geography, such system integration (Gid-dens, 1984) gives meaning to voting behavior by reference topower relationships and ideals which have bound the systemtogether in the past. Ideologies are packages of historicalmyths, traditions, and future options which inuence thetrajectory of a system by reference to the past. Ideology isa pervasive feature in the construction of both locales andpredispositions. Individuals require ideology to guide and justify their actions. In addition, ideology provides the rai-son detre for the institutions which enable and constrainindividual activity. Ideology is, therefore, the cement thatbinds locales and the lubricant which facilitates politicalchange.

The pervasive inuence of ideology on electoral behavioris transmitted to the voter within institutional settings. The

individual voter receives and interprets information withina number of institutions, either formal or informal and op-erating at a variety of geographic scales. Similar to Coxs(1969) denition of information nodes, institutions receive,interpret, pervert, lter, and transmit information. A listof relevant institutions is not plausible as key institutionswill alter with spatial setting and temporal context. Elec-toral geography is particularly interested in analyzing thegrowth and role of party institutions within the context of a geography of other institutions (Denver and Hands, 1997).A social constructivist electoral geography engages the roleof individuals in creating party strength within a context of institutionalized knowledge. In turn, the fortunes of politicalparties requires the competitive construction of spaces of political power which, in a recursive fashion, will redenethe contextual setting of key institutions.

The third component of Preds denition is knowledge.Electoral geographers are concerned about how institutionsin spatial settings lter knowledge so that voters act upondistorted and partial information. Knowledge is structuredby a variety of competing and overlapping institutions. Elec-toral geography must not restrict its focus to explicitly polit-ical institutions, the political parties or union organizations.In addition, institutions which are political in nature even if they do not compete in the electoral arena for example,

the church, or the variety of interest groups and organiza-tions play an explicit role in the ltering and interpretationof knowledge. The voters spatial setting is completed bythe operation of institutions which bring people togetherfor, apparently non-political activities, such as drinking anddancing, but imbue a particular political ambience (Billig,1995). Both ideology and knowledge of events that havean impact upon the voter are ltered through institutions sothat they become local knowledge, information that is im-bued with particular meaning and warrants particular actionbecause of the imperatives and traditions of spatial settings(Gregory, 1994, p. 120). Armed with such local knowledge,people may exercise their voting options in a way which willredene their spatial setting.


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Figure 1. Thrifts Elements of Conict in Context.

The fourth component of Preds denition of context,predisposition, combines the inuence of ideology, institu-tions, and knowledge with the outcomes of political actions.Gregory (1994, p. 407) notes that in French dispositionmeans both predisposition and the results of an organizingaction. The predisposition component of this denition issynonymous with local knowledge - a product of institution-alized information processing within an ideological context.By highlighting the recursive interaction between individ-ual action and spatial setting, Gregory supports Preds viewthat context constantly becomes while suggesting thatindividual outlooks and goals are dynamic too.

Knowledge, institutions, ideology, predisposition, votersand space are all formed by political parties in a recursiverelationship. Political parties are one set of the institu-

tions and institutionally embedded power relations (Pred,1990, p. 119) integral to Preds denition of context. Polit-ical parties manage ideology and knowledge to mold voterpredisposition - in the one sense - while being the contin-ually changing outcomes of organizing action in the othersense of the word. Electoral geography can play a key rolein the analysis of the social construction of space by si-multaneously analyzing the dynamics of voting preferencesand political spaces. Modeling techniques which incorpo-rate electoral and spatial dynamics, changing electorates andtheir spatial expression, can provide a new concept of map-ping (Agnew, 1996a, p. 131) which informs the duality of structure and agency.

Nigel Thrifts (1983) theory of social action in spaceprovides a framework for linking ideology, institutions, andknowledge to political action. Thrift diagramed a triangu-lar relationship between three components of social actionwhich structured the possibilities and capacities of socialgroups to produce political change (Figure 1). Two of thenodes of the triangle reect key aspects of Preds context;knowledge and personality formation represent knowledgeand predisposition, respectively. The third node of socia-bility/communality represents the networks through whichknowledge is channeled and ideology is assimilated to de-velop personality. Ideology plays a role in the structuringof the nodes. It partially determines the content of availableknowledge, and the histories and potentials of ideologi-cal myths restrict and foster personality formation. Though

Figure 2. Electoral Geography as Conict in Context.

treated separately to illustrate the model, each of these com-ponents are related in a recursive fashion. In conjunction,personality formation, sociability, and knowledge act todetermine the capacity for conict. Thus, the model is ap-plicable for the study of a variety of political activities andthe social construction of space.

One such adaptation is to the study of electoral geogra-phy (Figure 2). In such a social constructivist framework forelectoral geography, the source and content of knowledge isinterpreted as party political agendas and manifestoes. Per-sonality formation is interpreted as voter mobilization andsociability/communality are interpreted as the creation of electoral locales. In combinationthese elements structure theability for regime change or electoral realignment, particular

capacities for conict. As in the general model, ideologypervades throughout. Electoral locales and personality for-mation would include the activity of, and membership in,non-party political movements and organizations.

The node of the triangle representing personality for-mation or voter mobilization requires an understanding of the voter as a product of social interaction rather than anatomized and rational decision maker. The developmentof voting intentions is one result of socialization withinan environment of both dominant messages and resistancetoward them. Voting behavior is an individualdecision struc-tured by prevalent institutionalized messages and criticisms.The electoral geographer analyzes the responses of vot-ers. Such responses, or changes in voting behavior, canbe measured quantitatively to capture variation across spa-tial settings. Interpretation and narrative analysis can thenlink such dynamics to the context of dominant and resistantmessages.

The availability of knowledge, or the role of political par-ties, plays a key role in the formation of voting intentions. Asocial constructivist framework would consider the recursiveinteraction between changes in the world-economy and thestate and the responses of the competing parties, as wellas the changing opinion of voters. The changing messagebeing sent by the party is received by the voter in a dynamic

locale. Thrift points out that it is both the availability andpenetration of knowledge that is important. Political partiesplay a key role in setting a political agenda which highlights


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some issues while hiding others. Therefore, some politicalacts remain hidden or undiscussed while other remain dis-torted by political parties (Thrift, 1983). Furthermore, thepolitical questions and resolutions presented to the electorateare distorted. The messages presented by the parties are theninterpreted using the knowledge offered by the locales insti-tutions. It is conceivable that some messages in some localeswill remain not understood by the electorate because they lieoutside the frame of meaning of the locale (Thrift, 1983).More commonly, the political message will be interpretedwithin a locale specic frame of reference, producing dif-ferent levels and bases of support in different locales (Cortyand Eagles, 1998; Johnston and Pattie, 1998). The recursivenature of the process is noted given that political parties mustadapt to reect their constituencies (Beck, 1974).

The third corner of the triangle represents the processesof sociability and community, or the organization of institu-tions within a locale which produce a sense of place (Thrift,

1983, p. 47). Locales are constituted by day-to-day patternsof communication and interactions which offer particularnorms, practices, beliefs, traditions and meanings. Estab-lished political parties will imbue their message with suchroutines. New political parties will contest the hegemony of the locale by championing and promoting alternative prac-tices and visions. The combination of political and socialinstitutions (both formal and informal) within a locale willalign at particular times to produce a spatial setting which isan opportunity for electoral change through the ballot box.

In conjunction, the processes represented by the threecorners of the triangle combine to produce the capacityfor conict, or the possibility of electoral realignment orregime change through the creation of spaces of power.The quantitative analysis of changes in the size, geographicdistribution, and social composition of the vote illustratesthe capacity for political parties to reorganize or even chal-lenge political regimes. The ability to challenge the politicalstructure of the state is dependent upon the mobilization of voters in a combination of locales, nullifying the criticismthat electoral geography ignores the political implications of electoral outcomes (Reynolds, 1993, p. 398). The ultimateprocess that electoral geographies can inform is the meansby which political change at the state scale is either initiatedor prevented, and thereby informing the questions of who

controls the state, what is the form or raison detre of thestate, and will established states be maintained and proposedstates succeed?

After outlining the framework for an electoral geogra-phy informed by social theory, the next task is to describehow it can be operationalized to facilitate quantitative analy-sis. More specically, the purpose of the theory is to showhow electoral behavior is structured by space. Therefore,the theory must be operationalized in a way that allowsfor the simultaneous analysis of electoral choices and thestructuring of space.

Operationalizing electoral behavior and the socialconstruction of space

Appropriate statistical techniques are needed to implementan electoral geography informed by a theory of the socialconstruction of space. Following Cox (1969), operational-ization is essential in insuring that subsequent statisticalanalysis informs the theoretical framework while remainingoperational within the constraints of accuracy and econ-omy characteristic of most research situations (Cox, 1969,p. 96). The remainder of this section will outline the meansof translating the model into statistical analysis.

From the triangular framework developed from Thrifts(1983) argument (Figure 2), two key concepts need tobe operationalized. The regionalization of voter mobiliza-tion, or regionally-specic forms of political behavior, maybe operationalized through the statistical concept of spa-tial heterogeneity. The creation of electoral locales may

be operationalized through the statistical concept of spatialdependence.Spatial heterogeneity refers to instability in the rela-

tionships between variables across space. For example, apositive and signicant relationship existed between the sizeof the Nazi party vote and manual employment in north-ern Germany while no such relationship was found in thesouthern region of the country (Flint, 1998a). The regionalpattern in the sign and signicance of variables within adata-set are called spatial regimes (Anselin, 1992) and illus-trate the regional differentiation in voter mobilization acrossspatial settings. Spatial heterogeneity in the data-set is anempirical illustration of spatial settings structuring politicalbehavior in such a way that different coalitions of voters willbe mobilized by the same party in different regions (Flint,1998a).

The spatial settings, which create spatial regimes of po-litical behavior, may be approached through the conceptof spatial dependence. Spatial dependence exists when thevalue of the dependent variable in one spatial unit of analysisis partially the function of the same variable in neighbor-ing units. In other words, the size of the Nazi party votein one county is not only a function of the socio-economiccharacteristics of that county but also partially a functionof the size of the Nazi party vote in the surrounding coun-

ties. Spatial dependence illustrates Galtons problem, orthat certain traits in an area are often caused not by thesame factors operating independently in each area but bydiffusion processes (OLoughlin and Anselin, 1992, p. 17).The presence of spatial dependence illustrates the diffusionof political party institutions across space which, in turn,create the spatial settings that structure spatial regimes of voter mobilization (Allen, 1965; Flint, 1998b).

Spatial dependence and spatial heterogeneity explicitlyoperationalize key political processes implicated in the so-cial construction of space (Figure 2). The inclusion of spatial dependence in the analysis models the constructionof institutionalized networks that created electoral locales.Reference to local historical studies triangulates (Creswell,1998, p. 202) the empirical ndings by providing archival


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evidence of the nature of the human agency that createdspaces of power. The inclusion of spatial heterogeneity in theanalysis models the spatial regimes of voter mobilization,or the electoral manifestation of the ways in which spatialsettings structured political behavior. Inherent in the inter-action between the construction of electoral locales and, ata higher geographic scale, spatial regimes, is the imperativefor political parties to compete for power across space inorder to control the ow and content of information withinparticular places.

The operationalization of voter mobilization and elec-toral locales in quantitative electoral geography requires theinclusion of both spatial dependence and spatial heterogene-ity in statistical modeling of elections through the adoptionof spatial-structural models (Anselin, 1992). When model-ing the percentage change in the Nazi party vote betweenconsecutive elections, spatial dependence was included inone of two ways. First, a variable measuring the average

Nazi party vote in neighboring counties in the rst of the twoconsecutive elections, the temporal spatial lag, was includedas an explanatory variable 1. If diagnostic tests indicated thepresence of spatial dependence after the inclusion of thetemporal-spatial lag variable it was replaced by the spatiallylagged dependent variable - the average of the dependentvariable in surrounding counties. 2

A positive and signicant value for the temporal-spatiallag indicated that the strength of the Nazi party vote in aparticular county was partially a function of previous Naziparty strength in neighboring places. In other words, therewas a diffusion of Nazi party support. The spatially laggeddependent variable measures the same diffusion process but,in this case, the speed of the spread was more immediate.Such diffusion can be interpreted as the creation of elec-toral locales across space as the Nazi party was able to usepockets of support to launch propaganda campaigns that ledto a growing presence in neighboring places (Allen, 1965).The Nazi party was creating institutionalized networks thatallowed it to spread information more effectively which, inturn, created locales of everyday activity and knowledge inwhich the Nazi party were a key presence. The constructionof electoral locales does not require a process of diffusion.Indeed, the case study of Baden shows that the Nazis createdlocales by working within places and also by disseminating

their message across space. However, a positive and signif-icant spatially-lagged variable is a statistical expression of the increased spatial reach of Nazi party locales.

Spatial dependence appears in two forms. 3 The sub-stantive form of spatial dependence can be interpreted asa diffusion process and it is incorporated into regressionequations by adding the spatially lagged dependent vari-able (OLoughlin and Anselin, 1992). Formally this may beexpressed by the equation

y = p WY + X +

where y is a vector of observations on the dependent vari-able, p is a spatial autoregressive coefcient, WY is thespatially lagged dependent variable, X is a matrix of ex-planatory variables, the regression coefcients, and isan error term.

In addition to the substantive interpretation of spatial de-pendence, spatial dependence can also be interpreted as anuisance that must be controlled for. This form of spatialdependence is called spatial error dependence as it is asso-ciated with model specication errors that spill across thespatial units of analysis (OLoughlin and Anselin, 1992).The spatial error model is usually expressed as a spatialautoregressive process in the error term as the usual assump-tions of homoskedastic and uncorrelated errors no longerhold which is stated formally as the series of equations

y = X +

= W + x

where the notation is the same as in the previous equation,with W being a spatial lag of the errors, and x a well-behaved error term with mean of zero and variance matrixof S 2 I (Anselin, 1992). The presence of both the spatiallag and the well-behaved error term creates a problemof simultaneity that requires the use of a maximum like-lihood procedure including the estimation of a nonlinearlikelihood function (Anselin, 1992). 4

The inclusion of spatial dependence through spatial re-gression analysis enhances the discussion of the diffusionof electoral behavior by including a statistical relationshipacross cases rather than a mapping of similar characteristics(Dorling et al., 1997). The regression technique accountsfor the temporal-spatial process of political behavior in addi-tion to the socio-economic characteristics of a place. Ratherthan clustering places in terms of their socio-economic com-position and looking for similar political traits, the lagged

dependent variables showthe process of the spread of similarpolitical behavior across neighboring places.

Spatial heterogeneity informs regionalization of votermobilization when regression parameters vary across re-gional subsets of the data. Such regionalization is expressedas spatial regimes across which signicantly different rela-tions between the explanatory and dependent variables arefound. The situation where both intercept and slope termsvary across spatial regimes can be expressed formally as

yi = i + X i ij + i for d = 0

yj = j + X j ij + j for d = 1

where is the intercept, and d refers to a dummy variableused to classify the observations into two spatial regimes.The signicance of the regional differentiation can be testedby a Chow test with a null hypothesis of

H 0 : i = j and i = j

If this null hypothesis is rejected it implies that the interceptterms and regression coefcients vary signicantly acrossspatial regimes (Chow, 1960). Both the temporal spatial lagsand the spatially lagged dependent variables can be enteredinto models with spatial regime changes.

The inclusion of spatial heterogeneity in the modelingof electoral geography operationalizes the regionalization of voter mobility predicted from the interpretation of Thrifts(1983) schema (Figure 2). The estimation of spatial regimesillustrates the electoral outcome of the way spatial settings


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Table 1. Nazi Party Electorate in Baden, May 1924-December 1924.

OBSERVATIONS = 83 R2 = 0.22

North SouthVariable Coeff. Std. Dev. Coeff. Std. Dev.Constant 0.69 0.38 0.45 1.41W_N245Nazi 0.29 0.10 0.68 0.46

Regression Diagnostics:Multicollinearity Condition Number = 5.47

Test on Normality of ErrorsTest: DF VALUE PROBKiefer-Salmon 2 16.48 0.000

Test on Structural Instability for 2 Regimes Dened by North and SouthTest: DF VALUE PROBChow-White 2 5.53 0.063Stability of Individual Coefcients (using adjusted White variance)Test: DF VALUE PROBConstant 1 0.03 0.859

W_N245Nazi 1 0.83 0.363Statistically Signicant at the 0.01 Level

was found in the heterogeneity of the socio-economic ex-planatory variables. The nal component of the framework required a brief discussion of how the construction of localnetworks and regional spaces of power formed the basis fora change of regime at the national scale. The spatial regimesused in the analysis were based upon the historic regionaldifferences in the level and type of Nazi party organizationin Baden that are discussed below. Diagnostic statistical testsconrmed that the north-south division accounted for theinstability of the parameters across the whole of the region.

In the initial period of change (Table 1), the only signi-cant variable was the temporal spatial lag, the average of theNazi party vote in May 1924 in neighboring counties. Het-erogeneity also existed in this model as the temporal spatiallag was negative and signicant in the north of the regionbut insignicant in the south. The Nazi party was unable todiffuse its support across space in this period. In the northof Baden (Figure 3), Nazi party support was localized inisolated pockets with no capacity to expand these electorallocales (Grill, 1983, p. 96). The Nazis could not initiate thespread of electoral locales in which its message and activity

were a part of everyday life. The limited ability of the Naziparty to create spaces of power is not surprising at this time.Police activity in 1923 and 1924 had crushed any attemptsby the Nazi party to establish local organizations, thoughsome individuals remained active (Grill, 1983, p. 95). InMay 1924, there was a spatial mismatch in the organizationand appeal of the party. Though the party in Baden was orga-nized by professionals in the south of the state, the strongestelectoral appeal was to be found in the north where there wasa history of right-wing politics (Grill, 1983, p. 101). Thus,the process of creating electoral locales does not necessarilyrequire the diffusion of political organization or message.In other words, the Nazi party was ineffectual in creatingnew electoral locales but relied upon traditional patterns of

behavior, or social relations laid down in previous periods(Massey, 1994).

Before the election of December 1924, the Nazi party inBaden reorganized itself to offer candidates from lower mid-dle class backgrounds in the north of the state. Hence, thenegative sign of the temporal spatial lag as only in medium-sized cities in northern Baden . . . , where the vlkisch partieswere well organized, did they win substantial votes (Grill,1983, p. 105/107). At this time, the Nazi party was con-structing electoral locales by strengthening its organizationwithin particular places rather than expanding into newplaces from positions of strength. The institutional networksof the Nazi party were reorganized to build upon provenpockets of support rather than creating new ones. The spacesof Nazi party power were entrenched in the north of Badenat this initial stage as the party targeted locales with politicalattitudes favorable to their program, rather than being activein constructing new locales of support. At this time, the Nazi

party disseminated a formof knowledge intended to resonatewith established practices in some electoral locales, ratherthan diffusing new knowledge to create new practices in newlocales.

Despite the low level of support for the party at thistime, the appeal of the Nazi partys message was broad. Nosocio-economic variables were signicant, indicating thatthe appeal of the Nazi message did not resonate with oneparticular segment of society in particular. The potential of this situation was to be realized subsequently. However, forthere to be a signicant capacity for conict, or capacityfor regime change, the Nazi party had to broaden its appealacross space while also mobilizing a broad cross-section of the electorate.

The second period of electoral change (Table 2) not onlyillustrates the success that the Nazi party achieved in cre-ating spaces of power, but also how this fragmented theirability to mobilize a broad coalition of voters across thestate. The positive value of NAZI30CH, the spatially laggeddependent variable, indicated that the Nazi party was ableto expand the spatial extent of its appeal across electoral lo-cales over the whole of the state. The statistical evidence forthe Nazis construction of electoral locales was supported byreference to Grills (1983) historical analysis. In April 1925,the Nazi party in Baden was revived under the leadership

of Robert Wagner, who established local party organizationsthroughout the state. The processes of diffusion captured bythe spatially lagged dependent variable reect the concertedefforts of the Nazi party to establish themselves in particularplaces by rening their message to local concerns and tra-ditions while becoming a part of the community by offeringconcerts, lm shows, talks and other events (Allen, 1965,p. 135). Once established, the Nazi party sent out its mem-bers in trucks and on motorcycles and bicycles to spreadits message (Allen, 1965). The Nazi party entered electorallocales by vigorously disseminating an ideology that wasvague but was coupled to already existing local behavior andnorms.

The spread of the Nazi partys appeal was facilitated byan emerging agricultural crisis which produced spontaneous


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Figure 3. The Region of Baden within Weimar Germany.

support in rural areas (Grill, 1983). The Nazi party startedto speak to farmers in an attempt to lose its image as aparty with urban interests, an image which had resulted inits previous limited spatial appeal. The creation of electorallocales was furthered by organizing rural festivals to appealto rural conservative ideals, while integrating Nazi institu-tions with established local practices such as not allowingwomen and girls to participate in Nazi parades (Grill, 1983,p. 147). Thus, the Nazi party was creating electoral localesby adding a political component to the established prac-tices of everyday life. Moreover, the Nazi party was awarethat the electoral locales they intended had to resonate withestablished regionalized practices.

Nazi party agency within existing spatial structures wasable to create a diffusion of Nazi party support and thecreation of electoral locales, but the timing of the successof the partys activity was related to developments in otherpolitical parties. The creation of electoral locales in whicheveryday conventions and practices became imbued withNazism involved competition with other political parties.Electoral locales are arenas within which political knowl-edge is provided, sought, and used. In the example of 1920s

Baden, the ability of the Nazi party to create knowledgebased upon its ideology was enhanced by the perceived inef-cacy of its competitors. The conservative DNVP (German

National Peoples party), the Landbund (Agrarian League),the Catholic Center Party and the liberal DDP (German De-mocratic party) were all tainted, in the eyes of the voters,by their participation in a national coalition government ata time of economic crisis (Grill, 1983, p. 140). Thus theelectorate was particularly eager to gain knowledge from anew party outside of the political establishment. In 1928,growing numbers of Landbund members, including someleaders, joined the Nazi party and the DDP established agri-cultural schools in an attempt to counter the Nazis appeal(Grill, 1983, p. 142). In 1925/26 Nazis from rural areasbecame more prominent in a campaign aimed at increasingparty support in the countryside (Grill, 1983, p. 145). Itwas the combination of a political context of a demand fornew information and the Nazi partys agency in diffusing itsmessage that created new electoral locales within which thepartys message resonated.

However, as in the previous period of change, a modelincorporating spatial regimes was necessary for the periodof change 19281930 (Table 2). The Nazi party was expand-ing the extent of its networks of support, but at this timethe creation of new spaces of power produced a fragmented

electorate. The entry of the Nazi party into the politicalscene created a regional differentiation of electoral localessuch that particular segments of society were mobilized in


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Table 2. Nazi Party Electorate in Baden, May 1928September 1930.


North SouthVariable Coeff. Std. Dev. Coeff. Std. Dev.Constant 29.16 12.05 7.12 15.04Prot 0.04 0.02 0.12 0.05Bctrade 0.60 0.26 0.06 0.58N309turn 0.39 0.15 0.07 0.22Wchealth 1.86 1.35 7.89 3.05W_Nazi30ch 0.46 0.20 0.46 0.20

Regression DiagnosticsTest on Structural Instability for 2 Regimes Dened by North and SouthTest: DF VALUE PROBChow-Wald 5 12.82 0.025

Stability of Individual CoefcientsTest: DF VALUE PROBConstant 1 1.53 0.215Prot 1 3.74 0.053Bctrade 1 3.34 0.068N309turn 1 0.14 0.709Wchealth 1 2.78 0.096Statistically Signicant at the 0.01 LevelStatistically Signicant at the 0.05 Level

the north and south of Baden. In the north of the state, themodel provides evidence that the Nazi party mobilized bluecollar workers and previous non-voters. The variable BC-TRADE (the percentage of the workforce who were bluecollar workers working in the trade and transport sector)measured the proportion of artisans, craftsmen, and skilled

workers in a local workforce. The positive relationship be-tween BCTRADE and the change in the Nazi vote was foundin the northern part of the state, indicating that the combi-nation of a tradition of right-wing support and lower middleclass candidates (Grill, 1983, p. 189) mobilized voters on thecusp of middle class status (Ault and Brustein, 1998) in thisparticular spatial setting. N309TURN measured the size of electoral turnout in the September 1930 Reichstag election.Its negative value suggested that increased support for theNazi party in north Baden was gained through the desertionof voters from other parties, rather than previous non-voters.The Nazi party had begun to attract voters from other parties

in the Landtag election of 1929 (Faris, 1975). Further sup-port for this conclusion is provided by the fact that the partieson the right and center of the political spectrum lost only atotal of 25,000 votes between them (Grill, 1983, p. 190).

The nature of voter mobilization was quite differentin south Baden. Neither BCTRADE or N309TURN weresignicant in this spatial regime. Instead, the variableWCHEALTH (proportion of the workforce who are whitecollar employees in the health sector) was positive and sig-nicant. In southern Baden, the Nazi party mobilized middleclass voters to a greater extent than it did in the north, a re-ection of the partys reported focus on professionals (Grill,1983, p. 185). The variable PROT (percentage of the popu-lation who were Protestant) was also positive and signicantin southern Baden. The Nazi partys support was weakest in

Table 3. Nazi Party Electorate in Baden, September1930July 1932.


Variable Coeff. Std. dev.

Constant 13.58 1.24

Prot 0.15 0.02

Lambda 0.44 0.11

Regression Diagnostics:Diagnostics for Heteroskedasticity, Random Coefcients

Test: DF VALUE PROBBreusch-Pagan test 1 0.02 0.901Spatial B-P test 1 0.02 0.901

Diagnostics for Spatial DependenceTest: DF VALUE PROBLikelihood Ratio Test 1 13.51 0.000

Test on Common Factor Hypothesis

Test: DF VALUE PROBLikelihood Ratio Test 1 0.02 0.890Wald Test 1 0.02 0.888

Statistically signicant at the 0.01 Level

the Catholic strongholds of southeastern Baden, while alsoattracting the support of voters in Catholic areas who had notsupported the Center party (Grill, 1983, p. 190). In the 1929 Landtag election the Nazi party had also gained the strongestsupport in Protestant areas (Faris, 1975). Thusclass and con-fessional identity and institutions combined to create spatialsettings favorable to the dissemination and resonance of theNazi partys message in the south of Baden. The period19281930 illustrates how the Nazi party created electorallocales to disseminate and control information. This socialconstruction of space was achieved by building upon theestablished practices of social settings within a national con-text of discontent with traditional political parties. However,though the level of support increased, the Nazi party wasunable to mobilize a uniform and broad coalition of votersacross Baden.

The third period of change, September 1930 July 1932,was the rst model in which spatial regimes were not nec-essary (Table 3). In other words, the nature of the Nazi

partys electorate was homogenous across the state of Badenfor the rst time. The construction of party networks andinstitutions in the previous phase had established a basis forpower. The spatial homogeneity in the electorate was facili-tated by a switch to rural rallies across the state rather thanurban meetings (Grill, 1983, p. 206). The NSDAPs con-struction of electoral locales had created a statewide space of power which facilitated uniform and broad voter mobiliza-tion through a more effective dissemination of knowledge.Only one socio-economic variable was signicant, that mea-suring confessional identity. No variables measuring socialclass were signicant, indicating that the Nazi partys ap-peal was not restricted to a particular segment of society.However, the positive value of the variable PROT providesevidence that spatial settings where the institutions of the


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Catholic church, and its political afliate the Center Party,were established did not support the Nazis.

In combination, the three statistical models presented il-lustrate the spatial and political processes that allowed theNazi party to create a large and cross-class electorate inBaden. As an institution, the Nazi party wanted to maximizethe spatial reach and political monopoly of its informationdissemination. It started from isolated pockets of supportand, throughorganizational efforts, increased the geographicextent of electoral locales inuenced by its message. Thecreation of such spatial settings was done in a way thatutilized traditional localized practices in the formation of new political loyalties and spaces of power. Initially, thecreation of electoral locales produced regional differenti-ation in the type of voter mobilized to support the Naziparty. Eventually the Nazis were able to mobilize a largeand uniform electorate within the space of power that theyhad constructed. These processes were occurring throughout

Weimar Germany, but with a distinct geographic pattern tothe Nazi partys relative success (OLoughlin et al., 1995).In combination, the regional electorates mobilized by theNazi party were aggregated to form a national Sammlungs-bewegung , or national cross-class political movement, thatallowed for the seizure of power and a change in the veryform of the state (Flint, 1998a). Referring back to Figure 2,the agency of institutions and individuals created spatial set-tings which mediated information from political parties. Theconstruction of local spatial settings formed regionally spe-cic mobilizations of Nazi party voters that, in turn, resultedin a capacity for regime change at the national scale.

Conclusion

The two goals of this paper have been illustrated by theBaden case study. First, the social construction of space isan integral component of electoral politics. The Nazi partyworked within the constraints and opportunities of existingspatial settings to create new locales of electoral support.In turn, these locales structured political behavior to pro-duce a regionalized pattern of voter mobilization. Over time,the Nazi party created a space of power in which it coulddisseminate information to mobilize a large and uniform

electorate. Second, spatial statistical analysis embeds spatialprocesses of diffusion and regional differentiation into themodeling of electoral processes. Geography is not an addi-tional variable that needs to be added or controlled for inorder to introduce context. Instead, the structuring of polit-ical behavior in space and time requires that regionalizationand diffusion be integral components of electoral geographyanalyses.

Electoral geography can inform, and be informed by,theories of the social construction of space. From the adap-tation of Thrifts (1983) schema (Figure 2), the geographyof elections is informed by the construction of local politicsas a means of enabling broader political projects. Electoralgeography is the geography and politics of the diffusionand acceptance of knowledge via the social construction of

electoral locales within which voters are mobilized. Simul-taneously, voter mobilization creates and maintains electorallocales that sustain, or diminish, political parties. Electoralgeography analyzes a large number of cases, rather thansingle case studies, so that the processes of creating places,or electoral locales, and obtaining political control over thespace of a whole electoral system are linked.

In the case study of Baden, the Nazi partys messageresonated originally in just a few locales in the north of thestate, but over time voter mobilization and the creation of spaces of power created a capacity for conict or regimechange in both Baden and the Third Reich. Such local andregional developments occurred within national and globaldynamics that inuenced the problems being faced by theelectorate and the solutions being proffered by the parties(Brustein, 1993).

Most electoral geographers are placed on the wrongside of a line dened by the persisting divide between a

political geography in dialogue with contemporary socialtheory and a political geography more comfortable with thereassuring nostrums of variants of positivism (OTuathail,1998, p. 84). I agree with OTuathail that the conceptu-alization and centrality of electoral geography within thesub-eld are key markers of this divide (OTuathail, 1998,p. 84). However, instead of OTuathails Procrustean di-vide the combination of empirical observation and socialtheory allows electoral geography to be a sub-eld that caninform theory. Electoral geographers can inform and illumi-nate the human enterprise that creates geographies by usingthe framework proposed by Thrift (1983). The processesinvolved in the social construction of space are inherentlypolitical, involving the control and interpretation of infor-mation, the monopolization of spaces by institutions and themobilization of people towards specic projects and goals.Electoral geography can map the sub-set of processes thatutilize the ballot box to create spaces of power and socialprojects.

Acknowledgements

Thank you to the two reviewers for their helpful comments.Thanks also to Michael Shin for help in constructing the data

base and GIS and to Rob Edsall for the artwork.

Notes

1 Throughout this analysis, the spatial weights matrix dened neighbor-ing counties on the basis of rst-order contiguity.

2 Four tests for spatial dependence were conducted. The Morans I sta-tistic to test for autocorrelation in the residuals of the regression model(Anselin and Rey, 1991), the Lagrange Multiplier test for spatial errordependence (Anselin, 1992), the Kelejian-Robinson test for spatial errordependence (Kelejian and Robinson, 1992), and the Lagrange Multipliertest for substantive spatial dependence (Anselin, 1992). These test andtheir application to electoral geography are discussed in greater detail inOLoughlin, Flint and Anselin (1994).

3 It is difcult to distinguish between substantive spatial dependenceand spatial error dependence because of the similarity of the two expres-sions representing the different forms. The similarity of the two expressions


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produces the common factor hypothesis, that the product of the spatial au-toregressive coefcient with the regression coefcients equals the negativeof the coefcients of the spatially lagged dependent variables. If the com-mon factor hypothesis holds, then it suggests that the spatial error modelis the correct specication. If it does not hold, then it implies that the sub-stantive spatial dependence model is the correct specication. Alternatively,the common factor hypothesis not holding may also indicate specication

errors, such as the wrong spatial weights matrix or missing explanatoryvariables (OLoughlin and Anselin, 1992).4 Testing for spatial dependence, and its inclusion in the regression

equations, is important for methodological as well as theoretical reasons.The presence of substantive spatial dependence results in biased regressioncoefcients. If spatial error dependence is not controlled for the regressionestimates are unbiased but misleading inference can result if the varianceestimates are not adjusted (Anselin, 1992).

5 The region of Baden as dened in this analysis, consists of 83 coun-ties in the state of Baden and the Pfalz, a Bavarian administrative districtbordering France and north-west Baden. Pfalz was included in the regionbecause of its historical and cultural ties with northern Baden. In 1789, thePfalz was conquered by Napoleon and its eastern part, including Mannheimand Heidelberg, was given to Baden , to which it is still attached (Dickinson,1945).

6 For a spatial analysis of the Nazi party vote at the national scale see

OLoughlin, Flint and Anselin (1994) and Flint (1998a).7 The census and election data were taken from the Wahl- und Sozial-daten der Kreise und Gemeinden des Deutschen Reiches, 19201933 . Thedata were disaggregated at a scale of more than 6,000 geographic units,which included counties ( Kreise ), villages, and neighborhoods in largecities. Socio-economic variables from the 1925 census were used to con-struct the explanatory variables. To match the census and election variables,the 6,000 geographic units were aggregated into 743 Kreise and towns.For ease these units will be called counties from now on. The data wastranslated into a GIS with the assistance of Rusty Dodson, Steve Kirin, andDavid Fogel of the Department of Geography, University of California -Santa Barbara, and Michael Shin, Department of Geography, University of Colorado - Boulder.

8 The following variables were included in the stepwise regressions:percentage of the population that were protestant; percentage of the work-force that were manual industrial workers; percentage of the workforce thatwere blue collar workers in trade and transport; percentage of the workforcethat were self-employed; percentage of the workforce unemployed; elec-toral turnout in the rst of the two elections in each period as percentageof eligible voters; percentage of the workforce employed in clerical jobs inthe industrial sector; percentage of the workforce employed as white collarworkers in the health sector; and the spatially lagged dependent variables.

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