Cohort Study
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Transcript of Cohort Study
COHORT STUDY
Dr Manish Chandra PrabhakarMGIMS Sewagram
Cohort studieslongitudinal Prospective studiesForward looking study IIncidence studyFollow up study
starts with people free of disease assesses exposure at “baseline”assesses disease status at “follow-up”
Cohort studies
Purpose:- Study of the association between an
exposure factor and one or more diseases outcomes
- Confirmation of hypothesis (a step further towards causation)
• Cohort study is undertaken to support the existence of association between suspected cause and disease
A major limitation of cross-sectional surveys and case-control studies is difficulty in determining if exposure or risk factor preceded the disease or outcome.
Cohort Study:
Key Point:
Presence or absence of risk factor is determined before outcome occurs.
INDICATION OF A COHORT STUDY
When there is good evidence of exposure and disease.
When exposure is rare but incidence of disease is higher among exposed
When follow-up is easy, cohort is stable When sample funds are available
Design:
Two groups are studied:- Study group (cohort- Control group
Defined according to the presence or the absence of the exposure under
investigation
Study group (cohort)
Defined as those who:- Have the exposure factor under the study
(working definition of the exposure should be set)
- Are free from the disease or outcome under study and,
- Are at risk of developing this disease or outcome
Study group (cohort)
Selected to represent all the population of exposed individuals
Source of selection may be;-workplace-Registries- Hospital records- community
WHAT IS COHORT
Ancient Roman military unit, A band of warriors.
Persons banded together. Group of persons with a common
statistical characteristic. [Latin]
.
Control group Similar to the study group in everything
except the exposure under the study Must have a similar chance of the
occurrence of the outcome, compared to the study group
Source: general pop., neighbors, friends of cases, hospital…
Matching of factors that might affect the studied relationship (confounding factors)
After selection of the two groups
Baseline information should be obtained from members of the two groups. This information includes:
- Exposure factor: to ensure its presence in the study group and its absence in the control group
- Outcome: to ensure its absence in both groups
- Confounding factors: to assess their presence and level
Follow up A rigorous system of follow up should be
planned and implemented to avoid losses The same follow-up maneuver should be
done in both groups In each follow-up, subjects are assessed
for the occurrence of the outcome under study (endpoint) which must be:
- objectively measurable (hard point) - specific -validAscertainment of exposure status in each
follow-up visit
Follow up
The period of follow-up is determined by the nature of the expected outcome and its latency from the exposure, it should be:
- not too short: no enough time for the outcome to occur
- not too long: probability of the occurrence in the control group
approaches that in the study group
Follow up (historical(
disease
historical follow-up
Control group no disease
Past (1945)
Start
FU
TimeOf
The study
Today 2007
Follow up (concurrent)
Time
Of The stu
dy
Start
FU
Concurrent FU
disease
No disease
Future
2010
In either study
Identification and classification of cohort is based on exposure status
Disease is not present at the start of FU Follow-up is in the direction of the natural
history of the disease
ANALYSIS
Calculation of incidence rates among exposed and non exposed groups
Estimation of risk
Incidence rates of outcome
a+b+c+d
dc
ba
Diseased Not diseased
Yes
No
a+b
c+d
b+d a+c
Total
Control (not exposed)
Study cohort
(exposed)
Incidence rates
Incidence rate among exposed=Ie = a/a+b Incidence among unexposed=Iu = c/c+d
Total incidence= a+c/a+b+c+d
Estimation of risk= measures the strength of association between exposure and outcome
Relative Riskincidence of disease among exposed
RR = ______________________________Incidence of disease among non-
exposeda/a+b
= _________c/c+d
Attributable Risk( measures the absolute increase in the risk of disease due to exposure)
Attributable Risk
Incidence of disease among exposed – incidence of disease among non exposed
AR = _______________________________Incidence of disease among exposed
a/a+b – c/c+dAR = _______________
a/a+b
Smoking Lung cancer Total
YES NO
YES 70 6930 7000
NO 3 2997 3000
73 9927 10000
Find out RR and AR for above data
Incidence of lung cancer among smokers70/7000 = 10 per 1000
Incidence of lung cancer among non-smokers
3/3000 = 1 per thousandRR = 10 / 1 = 10
(lung cancer is 10 times more common among smokers than non smokers)
AR = 10 – 1 / 10 X 100= 90 %
(90% of the cases of lung cancer among smokers are attributed to their habit of smoking)
Cohort studies Strengths We can find out
incidence rate and risk
More than one disease related to single exposure
can establish cause - effect
good when exposure is rare
minimizes selection and information bias
Weaknesses losses to follow-up often requires large
sample ineffective for rare
diseases long time to
complete expensive Ethical issues Status change with
long follow up Change in diagnosis
along FU