Cognitive Illiberalism .

52
Cognitive Illiberalism D an M .Kahan Yale Law School & m any m any others! www.culturalcognition.net Research Supported by: N ationalScience Foundation, SES--0922714 O scar M . R uebhausen Fund atY ale L aw School

Transcript of Cognitive Illiberalism .

Page 1: Cognitive Illiberalism .

Cognitive Illiberalism

Dan M. Kahan Yale Law School

& many many others!

www.culturalcognition.net

Research Supported by: National Science Foundation, SES--0922714 Oscar M. Ruebhausen Fund at Yale Law School

Page 2: Cognitive Illiberalism .

What am I talking about?

Cultural cognition cognitive illiberalism

1. “Motivated numeracy”

2. “Noncommunicative harm principle”

3. Cognitive illiberalism: how big is the problem?

Page 3: Cognitive Illiberalism .

Motivated Numeracy

Page 4: Cognitive Illiberalism .

“How much risk do you believe climate change poses to human health, safety, or prosperity?”

Low High

perc

eive

d ri

sk (z

-sco

re)

-1.00

-0.75

-0.50

-0.25

0.00

0.25

0.50

0.75

1.00

low high

Science literacy/numeracy

Greater

Lesser

-1.00

-0.75

-0.50

-0.25

0.00

0.25

0.50

0.75

1.00

low high

Greater

Lesser

Science literacy/numeracy

Low High

perc

eive

d ri

sk (z

-sco

re)

Egalitarian Communitarian

Hierarchical Individualist

Actual ResponseGreater

Lesser

Science literacy/numeracy

Low High

perc

eive

d ri

sk (z

-sco

re)

Egalitarian Communitarian

Hierarchical Individualist

Actual Response

-1.00

-0.75

-0.50

-0.25

0.00

0.25

0.50

0.75

1.00

low high

Greater

Lesser

Science literacy/numeracy

Low High

perc

eive

d ri

sk (z

-sco

re) Egalitarian Communitarian

Hierarchical Individualist

Actual Response

-1.00

-0.75

-0.50

-0.25

0.00

0.25

0.50

0.75

1.00

low high

Greater

Lesser

Science literacy/numeracy

Low High

perc

eive

d ri

sk (z

-sco

re)

Egalitarian Communitarian

Hierarchical Individualist

Actual ResponseGreater

Lesser

Science literacy/numeracy

Low High

perc

eive

d ri

sk (z

-sco

re)

Egalitarian Communitarian

Hierarchical Individualist

Actual Response

source: Kahan, D.M., Peters, E., Wittlin, M., Slovic, P., Ouellette, L.L., Braman, D. & Mandel, G. The polarizing impact of science literacy and numeracy on perceived climate change risks. Nature Clim. Change, 2, 732-35 (2012).

Page 5: Cognitive Illiberalism .

“Skin cream experiment”

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“Skin cream experiment”

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Rash Decreases

Rash Increases

Experimental condition

Page 8: Cognitive Illiberalism .

Numeracy

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 90 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9numeracy

Numeracy scoreEntire Sample

Numeracy scorePolitical outlook subsamples

Conserv_Repub > 0Conserv_Repub < 0

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01

corr

ect i

nter

pre

tatio

n of

dat

a (=

1)

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9numeracy

scatterplot: skin treatment

Correct interpretation of data

rash decreases

rash increases

Numeracy score

01

corr

ect i

nter

pre

tatio

n of

dat

a (=

1)

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9numeracy

scatterplot: skin treatment

Lowess smoother superimposed on raw data.

Page 10: Cognitive Illiberalism .

numeracy score at & above which subjects can be expected to correctly interpret data.

Numeracy

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 90 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9numeracy

Numeracy scoreEntire Sample

Numeracy scorePolitical outlook subsamples

Conserv_Repub > 0Conserv_Repub < 0

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“Gun ban experiment”

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Four conditions

Page 13: Cognitive Illiberalism .

01

corr

ect

inte

rpre

tatio

n o

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ata

(=

1)

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9numeracy

scatterplot: skin treatment

rash decreasesrash increases

Numeracy score

01

correct interpretation of data (

=1)

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9numeracy

scatterplot: skin treatment

Correct interpretation of data

01

corr

ect i

nter

pre

tatio

n of

dat

a (=

1)

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9numeracy

scatterplot: gun ban

Numeracy score

01

correct interpretation of data (

=1)

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9numeracy

scatterplot: skin treatment

crime decreasescrime increases

Page 14: Cognitive Illiberalism .

0.0

5.1

.15

.2D

en

sity

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9numeracy

liberal Democrat

0.0

5.1

.15

.2D

en

sity

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9numeracy

conservative Republican

Liberal Democrat Conservative Republican

Zconservrepub0

0.0

5.1

.15

.2D

ensi

ty

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9numeracy

Sample overall

0“Conserv_Repub”

Conserv_Repub is standardized sum of standardized responses to 5-point liberal-conservative ideology and 7-point party-self-identification measures.

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Correct interpretation of data

Liberal Democrats (< 0 on Conservrepub)Conserv Republicans (> 0 on Conservrepub)

01

n_co

rrect in

terp

reta

tio

n o

f d

ata

(=

1)

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9n_numeracy

skin cream

01

correct interpretation of da

ta (=1)

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9numeracy

scatterplot: skin treatment

rash decreases

rash increasesrash decreases

rash increases

Numeracy score01

n_co

rrect interp

retatio

n of d

ata (=

1)

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9n_numeracy

gun ban

Numeracy score

01

corre

ct int

erpr

etatio

n of d

ata (=

1)

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9numeracy

scatterplot: skin treatment

crime decreases

crime increases

crime decreases

crime increases

01

n_correct interpretation of data (=1)

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9n_numeracy

gun ban

Numeracy score

01

co

rrect in

terp

reta

tio

n o

f d

ata

(=

1)

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9numeracy

scatterplot: skin treatment

crime decreases

crime increases

crime decreases

crime increases

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01

n_co

rrect in

terp

reta

tio

n o

f d

ata

(=

1)

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9n_numeracy

skin cream

01

correct interpretation of da

ta (=1)

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9numeracy

scatterplot: skin treatment

rash decreases

rash increasesrash decreases

rash increases

Numeracy score01

n_co

rrect interp

retatio

n of d

ata (=

1)

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9n_numeracy

gun ban

Numeracy score

01

corre

ct int

erpr

etatio

n of d

ata (=

1)

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9numeracy

scatterplot: skin treatment

crime decreases

crime increases

crime decreases

crime increases

01

n_correct interpretation of data (=1)

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9n_numeracy

gun ban

Numeracy score

01

co

rrect in

terp

reta

tio

n o

f d

ata

(=

1)

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9numeracy

scatterplot: skin treatment

crime decreases

crime increases

crime decreases

crime increases

01

n_co

rrect in

terp

reta

tio

n o

f d

ata

(=

1)

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9n_numeracy

gun ban

Numeracy score

01

correct interpretation of data (

=1)

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9numeracy

scatterplot: skin treatment

crime decreases

crime increases

crime decreases

crime increases

Correct interpretation of data

Liberal Democrats (< 0 on Conservrepub)Conserv Republicans (> 0 on Conservrepub)

Page 17: Cognitive Illiberalism .

N = 1111. Outcome variable is “Correct” (0 = incorrect interpretation of data, 1 = correct interpretation). Predictor estimates are logit coefficients with z-test statistic indicated parenthetically. Experimental assignment predictors—rash_decrease, rash_increase, and crime_increase—are dummy variables (0 = unassigned, 1 = assigned—with assignment to “crime decreases” as the comparison condition. Z_numeracy and Conserv_Repub are centered at 0 for ease of interpretation. Bolded typeface indicates predictor coefficient is significant at p < 0.05.

Best fitting regression model for experiment results

rash_decrease 0.40 (1.57)rash increase 0.06 (0.22)crime increase 1.07 (4.02)z_numeracy -0.01 (-0.05)z_numeracy_x_rash_decrease 0.55 (2.29)z_numeracy_x_rash_increase 0.23 (1.05)z_numeracy_x_crime_increase 0.46 (2.01)z_numeracy2 0.31 (2.46)z_numeracy2_x_rash_decrease 0.02 (0.14)z_numeracy2_x_rash_increase -0.07 (-0.39)z_numeracy2_x_crime_increase -0.31 (-1.75)Conserv_Repub -0.64 (-3.95)Conserv_Repub_x_rash_decrease 0.56 (2.64)Conserv_Repub_x_rash_increase 1.28 (6.02)Conserv_Repub_x_crime_increase 0.63 (2.82)z_numeracy_x_Conserv_repub -0.33 (-1.89)z_nuneracy_x_Conserv_Repub_x_rash_decrease 0.33 (1.40)z_nuneracy_x__x_rash_increase 0.54 (2.17)z_nuneracy_x__x_crime_increase 0.26 (1.08)_constant -0.96 (-4.70)

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0 .1 .2 .3 .4 .5 .6 .7 .8 .9 1kernel = epanechnikov, bandwidth = 0.0142

0 .1 .2 .3 .4 .5 .6 .7 .8 .9 1kernel = epanechnikov, bandwidth = 0.0092

0 .1 .2 .3 .4 .5 .6 .7 .8 .9 1kernel = epanechnikov, bandwidth = 0.0139

0 .1 .2 .3 .4 .5 .6 .7 .8 .9 1kernel = epanechnikov, bandwidth = 0.0081

High numeracyLow numeracy

high numeracy = 8 correctlow numeracy = 3 correct

Regression model predicted probabilities

skin treatment

Gun ban

probabilility of correct interpretation of data probabilility of correct interpretation of data

rash decreases

rash increases

rash decreases

rash increasesrash decreases

rash increases

rash decreases

rash increases

crime increases

crime decreases

crime increases

crime decreases

crime increases

crime decreases

crime increases

Liberal Democrat (-1 SD on Conservrepub)Conserv Republican (+1 SD on Conservrepub)

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%

crime decreases

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-80% -60% -40% -20% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80%

rash decrease

rash increase

crime decrease

crime increse

-80% -60% -40% -20% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80%

rash decrease

rash increase

crime decrease

crime increse

80% 60% 40% 20% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80%

Rash decrease

Rash increase

Crime decrease

Crime increase

Low numeracy

High numeracy

Low numeracy

High numeracy

Low numeracy

High numeracy

Low numeracy

High numeracy

-80% -60% -40% -20% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80%

rash decrease

rash increase

crime decrease

crime increse

-80% -60% -40% -20% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80%

rash decrease

rash increase

crime decrease

crime increse

Liberal Democratmore likely

Conservative Republicanmore likely

-80% -60% -40% -20% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80%

rash decrease

rash increase

crime decrease

crime increse

Partisan Differences in Probability of Correct Interpretation Of Data

Pct. difference in probability of correct interpretation of data

Predicted difference in probability of correct interpretation, based on regression model. Predictors for partisanship set at + 1 & - 1 SD on Conserv_Republican scale. Predictors for “low” and “high” numeracy set at 2 and 8 correct, respectively. CIs reflect 0.95 level of confidence.

-80% -60% -40% -20% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80%

rash decrease

rash increase

crime decrease

crime increse

-80% -60% -40% -20% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80%

rash decrease

rash increase

crime decrease

crime increse

-80% -60% -40% -20% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80%

rash decrease

rash increase

crime decrease

crime increse

-80% -60% -40% -20% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80%

rash decrease

rash increase

crime decrease

crime increse

-80% -60% -40% -20% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80%

rash decrease

rash increase

crime decrease

crime increse

-80% -60% -40% -20% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80%

rash decrease

rash increase

crime decrease

crime increse

-80% -60% -40% -20% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80%

rash decrease

rash increase

crime decrease

crime increse

Page 20: Cognitive Illiberalism .

-80% -60% -40% -20% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80%

rash decrease

rash increase

crime decrease

crime increse

-80% -60% -40% -20% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80%

rash decrease

rash increase

crime decrease

crime increse

80% 60% 40% 20% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80%

Rash decrease

Rash increase

Crime decrease

Crime increase

Low numeracy

High numeracy

Low numeracy

High numeracy

Low numeracy

High numeracy

Low numeracy

High numeracy

-80% -60% -40% -20% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80%

rash decrease

rash increase

crime decrease

crime increse

-80% -60% -40% -20% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80%

rash decrease

rash increase

crime decrease

crime increse

Liberal Democratmore likely

Conservative Republicanmore likely

-80% -60% -40% -20% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80%

rash decrease

rash increase

crime decrease

crime increse

Partisan Differences in Probability of Correct Interpretation Of Data

Pct. difference in probability of correct interpretation of data

Predicted difference in probability of correct interpretation, based on regression model. Predictors for partisanship set at + 1 & - 1 SD on Conserv_Republican scale. Predictors for “low” and “high” numeracy set at 2 and 8 correct, respectively. CIs reflect 0.95 level of confidence.

-80% -60% -40% -20% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80%

rash decrease

rash increase

crime decrease

crime increse

-80% -60% -40% -20% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80%

rash decrease

rash increase

crime decrease

crime increse

-80% -60% -40% -20% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80%

rash decrease

rash increase

crime decrease

crime increse

Page 21: Cognitive Illiberalism .

-80% -60% -40% -20% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80%

rash decrease

rash increase

crime decrease

crime increse

-80% -60% -40% -20% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80%

rash decrease

rash increase

crime decrease

crime increse

80% 60% 40% 20% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80%

Rash decrease

Rash increase

Crime decrease

Crime increase

Low numeracy

High numeracy

Low numeracy

High numeracy

Low numeracy

High numeracy

Low numeracy

High numeracy

-80% -60% -40% -20% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80%

rash decrease

rash increase

crime decrease

crime increse

-80% -60% -40% -20% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80%

rash decrease

rash increase

crime decrease

crime increse

Liberal Democratmore likely

Conservative Republicanmore likely

-80% -60% -40% -20% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80%

rash decrease

rash increase

crime decrease

crime increse

Partisan Differences in Probability of Correct Interpretation Of Data

Pct. difference in probability of correct interpretation of data

Predicted difference in probability of correct interpretation, based on regression model. Predictors for partisanship set at + 1 & - 1 SD on Conserv_Republican scale. Predictors for “low” and “high” numeracy set at 2 and 8 correct, respectively. CIs reflect 0.95 level of confidence.

-80% -60% -40% -20% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80%

rash decrease

rash increase

crime decrease

crime increse

Page 22: Cognitive Illiberalism .

-80% -60% -40% -20% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80%

rash decrease

rash increase

crime decrease

crime increse

-80% -60% -40% -20% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80%

rash decrease

rash increase

crime decrease

crime increse

80% 60% 40% 20% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80%

Rash decrease

Rash increase

Crime decrease

Crime increase

Low numeracy

High numeracy

Low numeracy

High numeracy

Low numeracy

High numeracy

Low numeracy

High numeracy

-80% -60% -40% -20% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80%

rash decrease

rash increase

crime decrease

crime increse

-80% -60% -40% -20% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80%

rash decrease

rash increase

crime decrease

crime increse

Liberal Democratmore likely

Conservative Republicanmore likely

-80% -60% -40% -20% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80%

rash decrease

rash increase

crime decrease

crime increse

Partisan Differences in Probability of Correct Interpretation Of Data

Pct. difference in probability of correct interpretation of data

Predicted difference in probability of correct interpretation, based on regression model. Predictors for partisanship set at + 1 & - 1 SD on Conserv_Republican scale. Predictors for “low” and “high” numeracy set at 2 and 8 correct, respectively. CIs reflect 0.95 level of confidence.

Avg. “polarization”on crime data

for low numeracypartisans

25% (± 9%)

Avg. “polarization”on crime data

for high numeracypartisans

46% (± 17%)

Page 23: Cognitive Illiberalism .

Perceived climate change risk

Low High

perc

eive

d ri

sk (z

-sco

re)

-1.00

-0.75

-0.50

-0.25

0.00

0.25

0.50

0.75

1.00

low high

Science literacy/numeracy

Greater

Lesser

-1.00

-0.75

-0.50

-0.25

0.00

0.25

0.50

0.75

1.00

low high

Greater

Lesser

Science literacy/numeracy

Low High

perc

eive

d ri

sk (z

-sco

re)

Egalitarian Communitarian

Hierarchical Individualist

Actual ResponseGreater

Lesser

Science literacy/numeracy

Low High

perc

eive

d ri

sk (z

-sco

re)

Egalitarian Communitarian

Hierarchical Individualist

Actual Response

-1.00

-0.75

-0.50

-0.25

0.00

0.25

0.50

0.75

1.00

low high

Greater

Lesser

Science literacy/numeracy

Low High

perc

eive

d ri

sk (z

-sco

re) Egalitarian Communitarian

Hierarchical Individualist

Actual Response

-1.00

-0.75

-0.50

-0.25

0.00

0.25

0.50

0.75

1.00

low high

Greater

Lesser

Science literacy/numeracy

Low High

perc

eive

d ri

sk (z

-sco

re)

Egalitarian Communitarian

Hierarchical Individualist

Actual ResponseGreater

Lesser

Science literacy/numeracy

Low High

perc

eive

d ri

sk (z

-sco

re)

Egalitarian Communitarian

Hierarchical Individualist

Actual Response

source: Kahan, D.M., Peters, E., Wittlin, M., Slovic, P., Ouellette, L.L., Braman, D. & Mandel, G. The polarizing impact of science literacy and numeracy on perceived climate change risks. Nature Clim. Change, 2, 732-35 (2012).

Page 24: Cognitive Illiberalism .

What am I talking about?

Cultural cognition cognitive illiberalism

1. “Motivated numeracy”

2. “Noncommunicative harm principle”

3. Cognitive illiberalism: how big is the problem?

Page 25: Cognitive Illiberalism .
Page 26: Cognitive Illiberalism .

Did protestors cross the line between “speech” and “intimidation”?

Page 27: Cognitive Illiberalism .

Experimental Conditions

Recruitment Center ConditionAbortion Clinic Condition

Page 28: Cognitive Illiberalism .

Experimental Conditions

Recruitment Center ConditionAbortion Clinic Condition

Freedom to Exercise Reproductive Rights Law Section 1. Prohibited Conduct. It is against the law for any person to intentionally (1) interfere with, (2) obstruct, (3) intimidate, or (4) threaten any person who is seeking to enter, exit, or remain lawfully on premises of any hospital or medical clinic that is licensed to perform abortions. Section 2. Order to Desist. If a law enforcement officer observes or is furnished with reliable evidence that any person is engaged in behavior in violation of section 1, the officer may order such person to desist and to leave the immediate vicinity.

Freedom to Serve with Honor Law Section 1. Prohibited Conduct. It is against the law for any person to intentionally (1) interfere with, (2) obstruct, (3) intimidate, or (4) threaten any person who is seeking to enter, exit, or remain lawfully on premises of any facility in which the U.S. military is engaged in recruitment activity. Section 2. Order to Desist. If a law enforcement officer observes or is furnished with reliable evidence that any person is engaged in behavior in violation of section 1, the officer may order such person to desist and to leave the immediate vicinity.

Page 29: Cognitive Illiberalism .

1. DTHREAT. The protestors threatened individuals seeking to enter, exit, or remain lawfully on the premises of the abortion clinic campus recruitment center.

2. DINTIMIDATE. The protestors intimidated individuals seeking to enter, exit, or remain lawfully on the premises of the abortion clinic campus recruitment center.

3. DOBSTRUCT. The protestors obstructed individuals seeking to enter, exit, or remain lawfully on the premises of the abortion clinic campus recruitment center.

4. PLISTEN. The people who decided not to enter the abortion clinic campus recruitment center did not feel threatened or intimidated; they just didn’t want to have to listen to what the protestors were saying.

5. PANNOY. It is more likely the police broke up the protest because they found dealing with the entire situation annoying or inconvenient than because they believed the protestors were violating the law.

6. DVIOLENCE. There was a risk that the protestors might resort to violence if anyone tried to enter.

7. DSCREAM. One or more the protestor screamed in face of people who wanted to enter the abortion clinic campus recruitment center.

1. LIABILITY. I would vote to find the police did not have the evidence necessary to stop the protest under the Freedom to Serve with Honor Law/The Freedom to Exercise Reproductive Rights Law.

2. DAMAGES. I would vote to order the police to pay damages to the protestors.

ORDER. I would vote to order the police not to interfere with protests under conditions like the ones shown in the video.

Select fact perception items

Case-outcome items

Page 30: Cognitive Illiberalism .

“The record confirms that any distress occasioned by Westboro’s picketing turned on the content and viewpoint of the message conveyed, rather than any interference with the funeral itself.” Snyder v. Phelps, 131 S. Ct. 1207 (2011)

Page 31: Cognitive Illiberalism .

Experimental Conditions

Recruitment Center ConditionAbortion Clinic Condition

Freedom to Exercise Reproductive Rights Law Section 1. Prohibited Conduct. It is against the law for any person to intentionally (1) interfere with, (2) obstruct, (3) intimidate, or (4) threaten any person who is seeking to enter, exit, or remain lawfully on premises of any hospital or medical clinic that is licensed to perform abortions. Section 2. Order to Desist. If a law enforcement officer observes or is furnished with reliable evidence that any person is engaged in behavior in violation of section 1, the officer may order such person to desist and to leave the immediate vicinity.

Freedom to Serve with Honor Law Section 1. Prohibited Conduct. It is against the law for any person to intentionally (1) interfere with, (2) obstruct, (3) intimidate, or (4) threaten any person who is seeking to enter, exit, or remain lawfully on premises of any facility in which the U.S. military is engaged in recruitment activity. Section 2. Order to Desist. If a law enforcement officer observes or is furnished with reliable evidence that any person is engaged in behavior in violation of section 1, the officer may order such person to desist and to leave the immediate vicinity.

Page 32: Cognitive Illiberalism .

1. DTHREAT. The protestors threatened individuals seeking to enter, exit, or remain lawfully on the premises of the abortion clinic campus recruitment center.

2. DINTIMIDATE. The protestors intimidated individuals seeking to enter, exit, or remain lawfully on the premises of the abortion clinic campus recruitment center.

3. DOBSTRUCT. The protestors obstructed individuals seeking to enter, exit, or remain lawfully on the premises of the abortion clinic campus recruitment center.

4. PLISTEN. The people who decided not to enter the abortion clinic campus recruitment center did not feel threatened or intimidated; they just didn’t want to have to listen to what the protestors were saying.

5. PANNOY. It is more likely the police broke up the protest because they found dealing with the entire situation annoying or inconvenient than because they believed the protestors were violating the law.

6. DVIOLENCE. There was a risk that the protestors might resort to violence if anyone tried to enter.

7. DSCREAM. One or more the protestor screamed in face of people who wanted to enter the abortion clinic campus recruitment center.

1. LIABILITY. I would vote to find the police did not have the evidence necessary to stop the protest under the Freedom to Serve with Honor Law/The Freedom to Exercise Reproductive Rights Law.

2. DAMAGES. I would vote to order the police to pay damages to the protestors.

ORDER. I would vote to order the police not to interfere with protests under conditions like the ones shown in the video.

Select fact perception items

Case-outcome items

Page 33: Cognitive Illiberalism .

“The record confirms that any distress occasioned by Westboro’s picketing turned on the content and viewpoint of the message conveyed, rather than any interference with the funeral itself.” Snyder v. Phelps, 131 S. Ct. 1207 (2011)

Page 34: Cognitive Illiberalism .

Hierarchy

Egalitarianism

Individualism Communitarianism

hierarchical individualists hierarchical communitarians

egalitarian communitariansegalitarian individualists

Cultural Cognition Worldviews

Page 35: Cognitive Illiberalism .

Hierarchy

Egalitarianism

Abortion procedure

Abortion procedure

Risk Perception KeyLow RiskHigh Risk

Individualism Communitarianism

Gays military/gay parenting

Gays military/gay parenting Guns/Gun Control

Guns/Gun Controlhierarchical individualists hierarchical communitarians

egalitarian communitariansegalitarian individualists

Cultural Cognition Worldviews

Page 36: Cognitive Illiberalism .

0%

25%

50%

75%

100%

Anti-abortion Anti-military Anti-abortion Anti-military Anti-abortion Anti-military

Police liable Enjoin police Damages vs. police

50%

69%

43%

56%

25% 25%29%

77%

13%

70%

8%

37%

26%

16%

70%

32%

39%

13%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

Anti-abortion

Anti-military Anti-abortion

Anti-military Anti-abortion

Anti-military

Police liable Enjoin police Damages vs. police

Egal Comm

Egal Indivd

Hier Comm

Hier Individ50%

69%

43%

56%

25% 25%29%

77%

13%

70%

8%

37%

26%

16%

70%

32%

39%

13%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

Anti-abortion

Anti-military Anti-abortion

Anti-military Anti-abortion

Anti-military

Police liable Enjoin police Damages vs. police

Egal Comm

Egal Indivd

Hier Comm

Hier Individ

50%

69%

43%

56%

25% 25%29%

77%

13%

70%

8%

37%

26%

16%

70%

32%

39%

13%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

Anti-abortion

Anti-military Anti-abortion

Anti-military Anti-abortion

Anti-military

Police liable Enjoin police Damages vs. police

Egal Comm

Egal Indivd

Hier Comm

Hier Individ

Pct.

Agre

e

Abortion Clinic Abortion Clinic Recruitment CtrRecruitment Ctr

0%

25%

50%

75%

100%

Anti-abortion Anti-military Anti-abortion Anti-military Anti-abortion Anti-military

Police liable Enjoin police Damages vs. police

50%

69%

43%

56%

25% 25%29%

77%

13%

70%

8%

37%

26%

16%

70%

32%

39%

13%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

Anti-abortion

Anti-military Anti-abortion

Anti-military Anti-abortion

Anti-military

Police liable Enjoin police Damages vs. police

Egal Comm

Egal Indivd

Hier Comm

Hier Individ

Page 37: Cognitive Illiberalism .

0%

25%

50%

75%

100%

Anti-abortion Anti-military Anti-abortion Anti-military Anti-abortion Anti-military

Police liable Enjoin police Damages vs. police

50%

69%

43%

56%

25% 25%29%

77%

13%

70%

8%

37%

26%

16%

70%

32%

39%

13%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

Anti-abortion

Anti-military Anti-abortion

Anti-military Anti-abortion

Anti-military

Police liable Enjoin police Damages vs. police

Egal Comm

Egal Indivd

Hier Comm

Hier Individ50%

69%

43%

56%

25% 25%29%

77%

13%

70%

8%

37%

26%

16%

70%

32%

39%

13%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

Anti-abortion

Anti-military Anti-abortion

Anti-military Anti-abortion

Anti-military

Police liable Enjoin police Damages vs. police

Egal Comm

Egal Indivd

Hier Comm

Hier Individ

50%

69%

43%

56%

25% 25%29%

77%

13%

70%

8%

37%

26%

16%

70%

32%

39%

13%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

Anti-abortion

Anti-military Anti-abortion

Anti-military Anti-abortion

Anti-military

Police liable Enjoin police Damages vs. police

Egal Comm

Egal Indivd

Hier Comm

Hier Individ

Pct.

Agre

e

Abortion Clinic Abortion Clinic Recruitment CtrRecruitment Ctr

0%

25%

50%

75%

100%

Anti-abortion Anti-military Anti-abortion Anti-military Anti-abortion Anti-military

Police liable Enjoin police Damages vs. police

50%

69%

43%

56%

25% 25%29%

77%

13%

70%

8%

37%

26%

16%

70%

32%

39%

13%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

Anti-abortion

Anti-military Anti-abortion

Anti-military Anti-abortion

Anti-military

Police liable Enjoin police Damages vs. police

Egal Comm

Egal Indivd

Hier Comm

Hier Individ

Page 38: Cognitive Illiberalism .

0%

25%

50%

75%

100%

Anti-abortion Anti-military Anti-abortion Anti-military Anti-abortion Anti-military

Police liable Enjoin police Damages vs. police

50%

69%

43%

56%

25% 25%29%

77%

13%

70%

8%

37%

26%

16%

70%

32%

39%

13%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

Anti-abortion

Anti-military Anti-abortion

Anti-military Anti-abortion

Anti-military

Police liable Enjoin police Damages vs. police

Egal Comm

Egal Indivd

Hier Comm

Hier Individ50%

69%

43%

56%

25% 25%29%

77%

13%

70%

8%

37%

26%

16%

70%

32%

39%

13%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

Anti-abortion

Anti-military Anti-abortion

Anti-military Anti-abortion

Anti-military

Police liable Enjoin police Damages vs. police

Egal Comm

Egal Indivd

Hier Comm

Hier Individ

50%

69%

43%

56%

25% 25%29%

77%

13%

70%

8%

37%

26%

16%

70%

32%

39%

13%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

Anti-abortion

Anti-military Anti-abortion

Anti-military Anti-abortion

Anti-military

Police liable Enjoin police Damages vs. police

Egal Comm

Egal Indivd

Hier Comm

Hier Individ

Pct.

Agre

e

Abortion Clinic Abortion Clinic Recruitment CtrRecruitment Ctr

0%

25%

50%

75%

100%

Anti-abortion Anti-military Anti-abortion Anti-military Anti-abortion Anti-military

Police liable Enjoin police Damages vs. police

50%

69%

43%

56%

25% 25%29%

77%

13%

70%

8%

37%

26%

16%

70%

32%

39%

13%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

Anti-abortion

Anti-military Anti-abortion

Anti-military Anti-abortion

Anti-military

Police liable Enjoin police Damages vs. police

Egal Comm

Egal Indivd

Hier Comm

Hier Individ

Page 39: Cognitive Illiberalism .

0%

25%

50%

75%

100%

Anti-abortion Anti-military Anti-abortion Anti-military Anti-abortion Anti-military

Police liable Enjoin police Damages vs. police

50%

69%

43%

56%

25% 25%29%

77%

13%

70%

8%

37%

26%

16%

70%

32%

39%

13%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

Anti-abortion

Anti-military Anti-abortion

Anti-military Anti-abortion

Anti-military

Police liable Enjoin police Damages vs. police

Egal Comm

Egal Indivd

Hier Comm

Hier Individ50%

69%

43%

56%

25% 25%29%

77%

13%

70%

8%

37%

26%

16%

70%

32%

39%

13%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

Anti-abortion

Anti-military Anti-abortion

Anti-military Anti-abortion

Anti-military

Police liable Enjoin police Damages vs. police

Egal Comm

Egal Indivd

Hier Comm

Hier Individ

50%

69%

43%

56%

25% 25%29%

77%

13%

70%

8%

37%

26%

16%

70%

32%

39%

13%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

Anti-abortion

Anti-military Anti-abortion

Anti-military Anti-abortion

Anti-military

Police liable Enjoin police Damages vs. police

Egal Comm

Egal Indivd

Hier Comm

Hier Individ

Pct.

Agre

e

Abortion Clinic Abortion Clinic Recruitment CtrRecruitment Ctr

0%

25%

50%

75%

100%

Anti-abortion Anti-military Anti-abortion Anti-military Anti-abortion Anti-military

Police liable Enjoin police Damages vs. police

50%

69%

43%

56%

25% 25%29%

77%

13%

70%

8%

37%

26%

16%

70%

32%

39%

13%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

Anti-abortion

Anti-military Anti-abortion

Anti-military Anti-abortion

Anti-military

Police liable Enjoin police Damages vs. police

Egal Comm

Egal Indivd

Hier Comm

Hier Individ

Page 40: Cognitive Illiberalism .

0%

25%

50%

75%

100%

Anti-abortion Anti-military Anti-abortion Anti-military Anti-abortion Anti-military

Police liable Enjoin police Damages vs. police

50%

69%

43%

56%

25% 25%29%

77%

13%

70%

8%

37%

26%

16%

70%

32%

39%

13%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

Anti-abortion

Anti-military Anti-abortion

Anti-military Anti-abortion

Anti-military

Police liable Enjoin police Damages vs. police

Egal Comm

Egal Indivd

Hier Comm

Hier Individ50%

69%

43%

56%

25% 25%29%

77%

13%

70%

8%

37%

26%

16%

70%

32%

39%

13%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

Anti-abortion

Anti-military Anti-abortion

Anti-military Anti-abortion

Anti-military

Police liable Enjoin police Damages vs. police

Egal Comm

Egal Indivd

Hier Comm

Hier Individ

50%

69%

43%

56%

25% 25%29%

77%

13%

70%

8%

37%

26%

16%

70%

32%

39%

13%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

Anti-abortion

Anti-military Anti-abortion

Anti-military Anti-abortion

Anti-military

Police liable Enjoin police Damages vs. police

Egal Comm

Egal Indivd

Hier Comm

Hier Individ

Pct.

Agre

e

Abortion Clinic Abortion Clinic Recruitment CtrRecruitment Ctr

0%

25%

50%

75%

100%

Anti-abortion Anti-military Anti-abortion Anti-military Anti-abortion Anti-military

Police liable Enjoin police Damages vs. police

50%

69%

43%

56%

25% 25%29%

77%

13%

70%

8%

37%

26%

16%

70%

32%

39%

13%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

Anti-abortion

Anti-military Anti-abortion

Anti-military Anti-abortion

Anti-military

Police liable Enjoin police Damages vs. police

Egal Comm

Egal Indivd

Hier Comm

Hier Individ

0%

25%

50%

75%

100%

Anti-abortion Anti-military Anti-abortion Anti-military Anti-abortion Anti-military

Police liable Enjoin police Damages vs. police

Page 41: Cognitive Illiberalism .

0%

25%

50%

75%

100%

Anti-abortion Anti-military Anti-abortion Anti-military Anti-abortion Anti-military

Police liable Enjoin police Damages vs. police

50%

69%

43%

56%

25% 25%29%

77%

13%

70%

8%

37%

26%

16%

70%

32%

39%

13%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

Anti-abortion

Anti-military Anti-abortion

Anti-military Anti-abortion

Anti-military

Police liable Enjoin police Damages vs. police

Egal Comm

Egal Indivd

Hier Comm

Hier Individ50%

69%

43%

56%

25% 25%29%

77%

13%

70%

8%

37%

26%

16%

70%

32%

39%

13%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

Anti-abortion

Anti-military Anti-abortion

Anti-military Anti-abortion

Anti-military

Police liable Enjoin police Damages vs. police

Egal Comm

Egal Indivd

Hier Comm

Hier Individ

50%

69%

43%

56%

25% 25%29%

77%

13%

70%

8%

37%

26%

16%

70%

32%

39%

13%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

Anti-abortion

Anti-military Anti-abortion

Anti-military Anti-abortion

Anti-military

Police liable Enjoin police Damages vs. police

Egal Comm

Egal Indivd

Hier Comm

Hier Individ

Pct.

Agre

e

Abortion Clinic Abortion Clinic Recruitment CtrRecruitment Ctr

0%

25%

50%

75%

100%

Anti-abortion Anti-military Anti-abortion Anti-military Anti-abortion Anti-military

Police liable Enjoin police Damages vs. police

50%

69%

43%

56%

25% 25%29%

77%

13%

70%

8%

37%

26%

16%

70%

32%

39%

13%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

Anti-abortion

Anti-military Anti-abortion

Anti-military Anti-abortion

Anti-military

Police liable Enjoin police Damages vs. police

Egal Comm

Egal Indivd

Hier Comm

Hier Individ

0%

25%

50%

75%

100%

Anti-abortion Anti-military Anti-abortion Anti-military Anti-abortion Anti-military

Police liable Enjoin police Damages vs. police

Page 42: Cognitive Illiberalism .

0%

25%

50%

75%

100%

Anti-abortion Anti-military Anti-abortion Anti-military Anti-abortion Anti-military

Police liable Enjoin police Damages vs. police

50%

69%

43%

56%

25% 25%29%

77%

13%

70%

8%

37%

26%

16%

70%

32%

39%

13%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

Anti-abortion

Anti-military Anti-abortion

Anti-military Anti-abortion

Anti-military

Police liable Enjoin police Damages vs. police

Egal Comm

Egal Indivd

Hier Comm

Hier Individ50%

69%

43%

56%

25% 25%29%

77%

13%

70%

8%

37%

26%

16%

70%

32%

39%

13%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

Anti-abortion

Anti-military Anti-abortion

Anti-military Anti-abortion

Anti-military

Police liable Enjoin police Damages vs. police

Egal Comm

Egal Indivd

Hier Comm

Hier Individ

50%

69%

43%

56%

25% 25%29%

77%

13%

70%

8%

37%

26%

16%

70%

32%

39%

13%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

Anti-abortion

Anti-military Anti-abortion

Anti-military Anti-abortion

Anti-military

Police liable Enjoin police Damages vs. police

Egal Comm

Egal Indivd

Hier Comm

Hier Individ

Pct.

Agre

e

Abortion Clinic Abortion Clinic Recruitment CtrRecruitment Ctr

0%

25%

50%

75%

100%

Anti-abortion Anti-military Anti-abortion Anti-military Anti-abortion Anti-military

Police liable Enjoin police Damages vs. police

50%

69%

43%

56%

25% 25%29%

77%

13%

70%

8%

37%

26%

16%

70%

32%

39%

13%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

Anti-abortion

Anti-military Anti-abortion

Anti-military Anti-abortion

Anti-military

Police liable Enjoin police Damages vs. police

Egal Comm

Egal Indivd

Hier Comm

Hier Individ

Page 43: Cognitive Illiberalism .

Pct.

Agre

e

Protestors blocked Screamed in face

Pedestrians just not want to listen Police just annoyed

50%

69%

43%

56%

25% 25%29%

77%

13%

70%

8%

37%

26%

16%

70%

32%

39%

13%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

Anti-abortion

Anti-military Anti-abortion

Anti-military Anti-abortion

Anti-military

Police liable Enjoin police Damages vs. police

Egal Comm

Egal Indivd

Hier Comm

Hier Individ

50%

69%

43%

56%

25% 25%29%

77%

13%

70%

8%

37%

26%

16%

70%

32%

39%

13%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

Anti-abortion

Anti-military Anti-abortion

Anti-military Anti-abortion

Anti-military

Police liable Enjoin police Damages vs. police

Egal Comm

Egal Indivd

Hier Comm

Hier Individ

50%

69%

43%

56%

25% 25%29%

77%

13%

70%

8%

37%

26%

16%

70%

32%

39%

13%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

Anti-

abortion

Anti-military Anti-

abortion

Anti-military Anti-

abortion

Anti-military

Police liable Enjoin police Damages vs. police

Egal Comm

Egal Indivd

Hier Comm

Hier Individ

50%

69%

43%

56%

25% 25%29%

77%

13%

70%

8%

37%

26%

16%

70%

32%

39%

13%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

Anti-abortion

Anti-military Anti-abortion

Anti-military Anti-abortion

Anti-military

Police liable Enjoin police Damages vs. police

Egal Comm

Egal Indivd

Hier Comm

Hier Individ

0%

25%

50%

75%

100%

abortion clinic recruitment center abortion clinic recruitment center

EI v. HC EC v. HI

Screamed in face

0%

25%

50%

75%

100%

abortion clinic recruitment center abortion clinic recruitment center

EI v. HC EC v. HI

Protestors blocked

0%

25%

50%

75%

100%

abortion clinic recruitment center abortion clinic recruitment center

EI v. HC EC v. HI

Police just annoyed

0%

25%

50%

75%

100%

abortion clinic recruitment center abortion clinic recruitment center

EI v. HC EC v. HI

Pedesterians not want to listen

Page 44: Cognitive Illiberalism .

“The record confirms that any distress occasioned by Westboro’s picketing turned on the content and viewpoint of the message conveyed, rather than any interference with the funeral itself.” Snyder v. Phelps, 131 S. Ct. 1207 (2011)

Page 45: Cognitive Illiberalism .

What am I talking about?

Cultural cognition cognitive illiberalism

1. “Motivated numeracy”

2. “Noncommunicative harm principle”

3. Cognitive illiberalism: how big is the problem?

Page 46: Cognitive Illiberalism .

“The record confirms that any distress occasioned by Westboro’s picketing turned on the content and viewpoint of the message conveyed, rather than any interference with the funeral itself.” Snyder v. Phelps, 131 S. Ct. 1207 (2011)

Page 47: Cognitive Illiberalism .

-80% -60% -40% -20% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80%

rash decrease

rash increase

crime decrease

crime increse

-80% -60% -40% -20% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80%

rash decrease

rash increase

crime decrease

crime increse

80% 60% 40% 20% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80%

Rash decrease

Rash increase

Crime decrease

Crime increase

Low numeracy

High numeracy

Low numeracy

High numeracy

Low numeracy

High numeracy

Low numeracy

High numeracy

-80% -60% -40% -20% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80%

rash decrease

rash increase

crime decrease

crime increse

-80% -60% -40% -20% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80%

rash decrease

rash increase

crime decrease

crime increse

Liberal Democratmore likely

Conservative Republicanmore likely

-80% -60% -40% -20% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80%

rash decrease

rash increase

crime decrease

crime increse

Partisan Differences in Probability of Correct Interpretation Of Data

Pct. difference in probability of correct interpretation of data

Predicted difference in probability of correct interpretation, based on regression model. Predictors for partisanship set at + 1 & - 1 SD on Conserv_Republican scale. Predictors for “low” and “high” numeracy set at 2 and 8 correct, respectively. CIs reflect 0.95 level of confidence.

Avg. “polarization”on crime data

for low numeracypartisans

25% (± 9%)

Avg. “polarization”on crime data

for high numeracypartisans

46% (± 17%)

Page 48: Cognitive Illiberalism .

Hierarchy

Egalitarianism

Abortion procedure

Abortion procedure

Risk Perception KeyLow RiskHigh Risk

Individualism Communitarianism

Gays military/gay parenting

Gays military/gay parenting

Guns/Gun Control

egalitarian communitarians

Cultural Cognition Worldviews

Page 49: Cognitive Illiberalism .

-80% -60% -40% -20% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80%

rash decrease

rash increase

crime decrease

crime increse

-80% -60% -40% -20% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80%

rash decrease

rash increase

crime decrease

crime increse

80% 60% 40% 20% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80%

Rash decrease

Rash increase

Crime decrease

Crime increase

Low numeracy

High numeracy

Low numeracy

High numeracy

Low numeracy

High numeracy

Low numeracy

High numeracy

-80% -60% -40% -20% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80%

rash decrease

rash increase

crime decrease

crime increse

-80% -60% -40% -20% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80%

rash decrease

rash increase

crime decrease

crime increse

Liberal Democratmore likely

Conservative Republicanmore likely

-80% -60% -40% -20% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80%

rash decrease

rash increase

crime decrease

crime increse

Partisan Differences in Probability of Correct Interpretation Of Data

Pct. difference in probability of correct interpretation of data

Predicted difference in probability of correct interpretation, based on regression model. Predictors for partisanship set at + 1 & - 1 SD on Conserv_Republican scale. Predictors for “low” and “high” numeracy set at 2 and 8 correct, respectively. CIs reflect 0.95 level of confidence.

Avg. “polarization”on crime data

for low numeracypartisans

25% (± 9%)

Avg. “polarization”on crime data

for high numeracypartisans

46% (± 17%)

Page 50: Cognitive Illiberalism .

Hierarchy

Egalitarianism

Abortion procedure

Cultural Cognition Worldviews

compulsory psychiatric treatment

Abortion procedure

compulsory psychiatric treatment

Risk Perception KeyLow RiskHigh Risk

Individualism Communitarianism

Environment: climate, nuclear

Guns/Gun Control

Guns/Gun Control

HPV Vaccination

HPV Vaccination

Gays military/gay parenting

Gays military/gay parenting

Environment: climate, nuclear

Page 51: Cognitive Illiberalism .

What am I talking about?

Cultural cognition cognitive illiberalism

1. “Motivated numeracy”

2. “Noncommunicative harm principle”

3. Cognitive illiberalism: how big is the problem?

Page 52: Cognitive Illiberalism .

www. culturalcognition.net

“I am you!”