Cognitive Fallacies & Biases- And How To Deal With Them.PM Camp – 2014-06-21

Product Development& Project ManagementFrom Vision ToImplementation

How Do We Work? In A Way That Fits The Requirements.

Which Tools Ensures Success?None.

TheLean/Product/Project/Business

Canvas

Development Processes Do Processes Ensure Success?No.

If it‘s not processes …What is it about?You!

http://www.fastcompany.com/1810918/3-secrets-recruiting-tech-talent-tough-markets

LeadershipLeadership starts with you.

Your company will inherit your values, processes and culture.

This will determine your product or project success.

7http://www.davidoliete.com/

The Problem With You …You Suck at Thinking.

http://imgur.com/1DEYI

Survivorship BiasAll winners do …

http://albumwar2.com/german-soldiers-inspect-shot-down-soviet-bomber-sb-2m/

Availability heuristicMental Shortcut which usesanecdotal evidence instead ofstatistical data.

http://blog.asmartbear.com/customer-validation.html

Cognitive DissonanceConfirmation Bias

It hurts to be wrong.

We avoid evidence of our failure.

We look for proof of our idea instead ofvalidation.

Endowment EffectLoss Aversion

Sunk Cost Fallacy

Now that we invested so much we can‘tthrow it away.

http://www.odt.co.nz/files/story/2012/12/gollum____helping_lure_precious_visitors_reuters_w_50ca509bb5.JPG

Optimism Bias

93% deem their driving ability above median.

Chance for enterprises to survive 5 years: 30%

Entrepreneurs who think they’ll make it: 80%

http://pics.kuvaton.com/kuvei/traffic_jam3.jpg

Bias blind spots“And why worry about a speck in your friend's eye when you have a log in your own?”

https://medium.com/p/5b374cfeb43c

Best-Practice?Most common project-methode: SALT

http://kaleidoscopebrain.wordpress.com/tag/self-help/

Cargo Cult

http://www.theresilientearth.com/?q=content/cargo-cult-climate-science

Know Thyself?You won‘t know yourself.

You won‘t change.

Just deal with yourself – professionally.

http://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Otto_Greiner_-_Odysseus_und_die_Sirenen.jpg

Empirical Process Control“If a process is too unpredictable or too complicated for the planned, (predictive) approach, then the empirical approach (measure and adapt) is the method of choice.”

Ken Schwaber

http://r2blog.com/2012/02/23/should-we-look-for-gnu-new-ways/ford-assembly-line-copy/

Doubt Yourself!Many founders are overly confident

It's good to doubt. Accept the doubt.

Allow for doubt in your team.

http://images.fotocommunity.de/bilder/raubtiere/baeren/stirnrunzeln-1fb6706e-9ceb-4b9b-a7cc-0319abd8e517.jpg

Breathe!Stop! Step up/out! Reflect!

Be mindful.

http://d1jqu7g1y74ds1.cloudfront.net/wp-content/uploads/2014/02/Yoda-Meditating.jpg

Explicate!Mind dumps

Mindful Conversation

Listen. Loop. Feel.

Listening/Psychater

http://craigsnodgrassart.com/project/brain-dump-extreme-doodling/

Pre-Mortem Why did we fail?

http://www.fastcodesign.com/1668984/the-challenger-explosion-rendered-in-cauliflower

More …

Fallacies Dualism

Anchoring

Bandwagon Effect

Frequency Illusion

…

Tools Reframing

Worst Case

Scenario Planning

…

Good Luck.

http://ayay.co.uk/backgrounds/science/space/Other-Space-Shuttle-Launch.jpg