Cognitive Bias - Exploring What Goes on Between Your Ears
-
Upload
dan-neumann -
Category
Business
-
view
815 -
download
0
Transcript of Cognitive Bias - Exploring What Goes on Between Your Ears
![Page 1: Cognitive Bias - Exploring What Goes on Between Your Ears](https://reader035.fdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062523/58f17de91a28abd0688b45e3/html5/thumbnails/1.jpg)
Pre s e n t e d b y
Cognitive BiasExploring what goes on between your ears
Dan Neumann
AgileIndy 2016
![Page 2: Cognitive Bias - Exploring What Goes on Between Your Ears](https://reader035.fdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062523/58f17de91a28abd0688b45e3/html5/thumbnails/2.jpg)
Your Greatest Tool
https://www.flickr.com/photos/learningissocial/
![Page 3: Cognitive Bias - Exploring What Goes on Between Your Ears](https://reader035.fdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062523/58f17de91a28abd0688b45e3/html5/thumbnails/3.jpg)
Dan Neumann
If you have questions or would like more information, feel free to contact me.
• www.agilethought.com• [email protected]• www. linkedin.com/in/meetdanneumann• @DanRNeumann• 574-514-3285• http://neumanagementllc.com/blog/
Click to Add Picture
![Page 4: Cognitive Bias - Exploring What Goes on Between Your Ears](https://reader035.fdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062523/58f17de91a28abd0688b45e3/html5/thumbnails/4.jpg)
Imagine…
![Page 5: Cognitive Bias - Exploring What Goes on Between Your Ears](https://reader035.fdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062523/58f17de91a28abd0688b45e3/html5/thumbnails/5.jpg)
Anchoring•Over-Weight the First Information•Make Decisions while Anchored•Especially a problem under pressure
https://www.flickr.com/photos/chris_cardew/
•Planning Poker•Silent Writing•Start with “Why”•Sleep on it
![Page 6: Cognitive Bias - Exploring What Goes on Between Your Ears](https://reader035.fdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062523/58f17de91a28abd0688b45e3/html5/thumbnails/6.jpg)
6
Two Categories
https://www.flickr.com/photos/jeremybrooks/https://www.flickr.com/photos/janellie23/
Ego BiasInformation Bias
![Page 7: Cognitive Bias - Exploring What Goes on Between Your Ears](https://reader035.fdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062523/58f17de91a28abd0688b45e3/html5/thumbnails/7.jpg)
Imagine…
![Page 8: Cognitive Bias - Exploring What Goes on Between Your Ears](https://reader035.fdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062523/58f17de91a28abd0688b45e3/html5/thumbnails/8.jpg)
8
Optimism BiasGenerally believe ourselves to be less prone to certain events.
![Page 9: Cognitive Bias - Exploring What Goes on Between Your Ears](https://reader035.fdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062523/58f17de91a28abd0688b45e3/html5/thumbnails/9.jpg)
9
Optimism Bias and Selective Updating
Representative of Group 1:Learns the actual chance is 50%
“ How unrealistic optimism is maintained in the face of reality” Tali Sharot, Christoph W Korn & Raymond J Dolan. NATURE NEUROSCIENCE, November 2011
Representative of Group 2:Learns the actual chance is 10%
Believes chance of cancer is 30%
New Belief: 33% New Belief: 22%
![Page 10: Cognitive Bias - Exploring What Goes on Between Your Ears](https://reader035.fdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062523/58f17de91a28abd0688b45e3/html5/thumbnails/10.jpg)
10
“ How unrealistic optimism is maintained in the face of reality” Tali Sharot, Christoph W Korn & Raymond J Dolan. NATURE NEUROSCIENCE, November 2011
It’s Biological
![Page 11: Cognitive Bias - Exploring What Goes on Between Your Ears](https://reader035.fdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062523/58f17de91a28abd0688b45e3/html5/thumbnails/11.jpg)
11
Combat: Make The Processing More Complex“Beyond Budgeting”•Estimate•Budget•Expected outcome
![Page 12: Cognitive Bias - Exploring What Goes on Between Your Ears](https://reader035.fdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062523/58f17de91a28abd0688b45e3/html5/thumbnails/12.jpg)
12
Debiasing: Multiple Explanation1. “Consider the Opposite”2. Consider any Alternative3. Alternative Plausibility
![Page 13: Cognitive Bias - Exploring What Goes on Between Your Ears](https://reader035.fdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062523/58f17de91a28abd0688b45e3/html5/thumbnails/13.jpg)
Related to Planning FallacyAddress Planning Fallacy with Reference Class Forecasting
![Page 14: Cognitive Bias - Exploring What Goes on Between Your Ears](https://reader035.fdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062523/58f17de91a28abd0688b45e3/html5/thumbnails/14.jpg)
14
Availability Bias•We judge how important (or how likely) something is by how easy it is to think of an example• In particular, vivid, unusual, or emotionally charged examples stick.
![Page 15: Cognitive Bias - Exploring What Goes on Between Your Ears](https://reader035.fdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062523/58f17de91a28abd0688b45e3/html5/thumbnails/15.jpg)
15
Combating Availability Bias•Research •Beware the most recent/memorable
•Personas•Experiments
![Page 16: Cognitive Bias - Exploring What Goes on Between Your Ears](https://reader035.fdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062523/58f17de91a28abd0688b45e3/html5/thumbnails/16.jpg)
16
Two Categories
https://www.flickr.com/photos/jeremybrooks/https://www.flickr.com/photos/janellie23/
Ego BiasInformation Bias
AnchoringOptimismAvailability
![Page 17: Cognitive Bias - Exploring What Goes on Between Your Ears](https://reader035.fdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062523/58f17de91a28abd0688b45e3/html5/thumbnails/17.jpg)
17
Illusory SuperiorityThe “Above Average” Bias
NOTE: Don’t call it Lake Wobegon Effect:http://www.publicradio.org/columns/prairiehome/posthost/2013/04/01/the_lake_wobegon_effect.php
Image: http://bit.ly/20qozUI
![Page 18: Cognitive Bias - Exploring What Goes on Between Your Ears](https://reader035.fdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062523/58f17de91a28abd0688b45e3/html5/thumbnails/18.jpg)
18
Attribution BiasMy Your
Success
Failure
*Not true of all cultures
Innate Abilities Circumstances
Bad Luck Incompetence
![Page 19: Cognitive Bias - Exploring What Goes on Between Your Ears](https://reader035.fdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062523/58f17de91a28abd0688b45e3/html5/thumbnails/19.jpg)
19
Dunning-Kruger EffectUnskilled Highly Skilled
Self-Assessment
Side-Effect
Overestimated Underestimated
Overconfidence Frustration with Others
![Page 20: Cognitive Bias - Exploring What Goes on Between Your Ears](https://reader035.fdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062523/58f17de91a28abd0688b45e3/html5/thumbnails/20.jpg)
Moderating Ego BiasCreate Safety“Regardless of what we discover, we understand and truly believe that everyone did the best job they could, given what they knew at the time, their skills and abilities, the resources available, and the situation at hand.” --Norm KerthProject Retrospectives: A Handbook for Team Review
![Page 21: Cognitive Bias - Exploring What Goes on Between Your Ears](https://reader035.fdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062523/58f17de91a28abd0688b45e3/html5/thumbnails/21.jpg)
Moderating Ego Bias•Model Getting Feedback•Evaluate the work, not the individual•Bring Data•Broaden your perspective
![Page 22: Cognitive Bias - Exploring What Goes on Between Your Ears](https://reader035.fdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062523/58f17de91a28abd0688b45e3/html5/thumbnails/22.jpg)
22
In-Group/Out-Group Bias• Positive characters ascribed to their own group•Negative characteristics ascribed to other groups• Especially when competing for resources!
Mitigation Strategies:•Get a broader definition of “my group”• Address the resource scarcity
![Page 23: Cognitive Bias - Exploring What Goes on Between Your Ears](https://reader035.fdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062523/58f17de91a28abd0688b45e3/html5/thumbnails/23.jpg)
23
Choice-Supportive Bias•Highlight positive attributes of our selection•Downplay positive attributes of alternatives
Mitigation Strategies:•Regular Reviews•Engage with outsiders
![Page 24: Cognitive Bias - Exploring What Goes on Between Your Ears](https://reader035.fdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062523/58f17de91a28abd0688b45e3/html5/thumbnails/24.jpg)
24
Confirmation Bias (a.k.a.,“Myside Bias”)•Seek information that supports our beliefs or hypotheses•Co-opt Ambiguity
Mitigation Strategies:•Additional Opinions•“Yes, and…”
![Page 25: Cognitive Bias - Exploring What Goes on Between Your Ears](https://reader035.fdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062523/58f17de91a28abd0688b45e3/html5/thumbnails/25.jpg)
25
Social Desirability Bias•Over-report “good” behavior•Underreport “bad”
![Page 26: Cognitive Bias - Exploring What Goes on Between Your Ears](https://reader035.fdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062523/58f17de91a28abd0688b45e3/html5/thumbnails/26.jpg)
26
Hawthorne EffectPeople tend to behave differently when they are being observed.
Use it for Advantage:•Video during meetings•Sprint Reviews
![Page 27: Cognitive Bias - Exploring What Goes on Between Your Ears](https://reader035.fdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062523/58f17de91a28abd0688b45e3/html5/thumbnails/27.jpg)
![Page 28: Cognitive Bias - Exploring What Goes on Between Your Ears](https://reader035.fdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062523/58f17de91a28abd0688b45e3/html5/thumbnails/28.jpg)
https://www.flickr.com/photos/mrsdkrebs/
![Page 29: Cognitive Bias - Exploring What Goes on Between Your Ears](https://reader035.fdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062523/58f17de91a28abd0688b45e3/html5/thumbnails/29.jpg)
Agony by wallsdontlie
Poison and Vomit by Thomas Hawk
![Page 31: Cognitive Bias - Exploring What Goes on Between Your Ears](https://reader035.fdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062523/58f17de91a28abd0688b45e3/html5/thumbnails/31.jpg)
32
We discussed:AnchoringOptimism BiasAvailability BiasIllusory SuperiorityAttribution BiasDunning-Kruger Effect
In-Group/Out-GroupChoice-SupportiveConfirmationSocial DesirabilityHawthorne EffectBias Against Creativity
![Page 32: Cognitive Bias - Exploring What Goes on Between Your Ears](https://reader035.fdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062523/58f17de91a28abd0688b45e3/html5/thumbnails/32.jpg)
Summary of Strategies• Show your cards all at
once: • Planning Poker • Silent Writing • Start with “Why” • Sleep on it • Make the issue more
complex (e.g., Beyond Budgeting)
• Multiple Explanation • Reference Class
Forecasting
• Research • Experiments • Personas • Create Safety • Model Getting Feedback • Bring Data • Evaluate the work, not the
individual • Broaden your perspective • Broaden the definition of
“My Group"
• Address the sense of resource scarcity
• Review your choices. • Include outsiders • Create additional options • Yes, And • Take advantage of
Hawthorne Effect • Reduce Uncertainty to
allow for Creativity
![Page 33: Cognitive Bias - Exploring What Goes on Between Your Ears](https://reader035.fdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062523/58f17de91a28abd0688b45e3/html5/thumbnails/33.jpg)
34
Blind Spot Bias• When one sees the impact of biases on the judgment of
others, but fail to see the impact of biases on one’s own judgment• Survey of 600 Americans, 85% thought they were less
biased than the average American
![Page 34: Cognitive Bias - Exploring What Goes on Between Your Ears](https://reader035.fdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062523/58f17de91a28abd0688b45e3/html5/thumbnails/34.jpg)
Dan Neumann
If you have questions or would like more information, feel free to contact me.
• www.agilethought.com• [email protected]• www. linkedin.com/in/meetdanneumann• @DanRNeumann• 574-514-3285• http://neumanagementllc.com/blog/
Click to Add Picture