Coffee Rust: Impacts and Actions

Amy Angel

Let´s Talk CoffeeEl Salvador, October 2013

Incidence of Coffee Rust

Source: CATIE, ICO

Coffee Area (hct)

% of Area Affected by

Roya 2012/13Costa Rica 93,774 64%El Salvador 152,187 71%Guatemala 276,479 59%Honduras 282,513 30%Nicaragua 126,154 36%Panamá 19,490 32%Perú 415,000 43%México 769,786 10%Dominican Rep. 131,250 46%Total 2,266,633 35%

Has fallen in most áreas in 13/14

Steady or worse in Guatemala

In Mexico, will increase to 30% in 13/14

Goal to reduce to 20% in Peru by December 2013

Severity in affected areas in El Salvador: pruning in 76%, 12% recepa, 2% new plants, 11% no action

Production in Central America

07/08 08/09 09/10 10/11 11/12 12/13 13/140

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

HondurasGuatemalaCosta RicaNicaraguaEl Salvador10

00 6

0kg

bags

Sources: ICO, USDA, media reports

Total for CA fell 15% from 11/12 to 12/13, and will fall 19% more from 12/13 to 13/14

Production in Other Rust Affected Countries

07/08 08/09 09/10 10/11 11/12 12/13 13/140

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000

14,000

ColombiaPeruMexico

1000

60k

g ba

gs

Sources: ICO, USDA, media reports

Shows Colombia´s effective fight against rust

Will fall 21% in Peru and 25% in Mexico from 11/12 to 13/14 (2 yrs)

Export Value from Central America

10/11 11/12 12/13 13/14*0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

4000

El SalvadorNicaraguaCosta RicaGuatemalaHondurasU

S$ m

illio

n

* Projected value

Steepest declines in El Salvador and Guatemala

Volume falls 22% but value falls 55% from 10/11 to 13/14

3450

1570

Percentage of Areas Planted with Varieties Susceptible to Coffee Rust

Costa Rica El Salvador Guatemala Honduras Nicaragua Panama0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%90.0%

94.3%

80.0%

50.0%

86.0%82.0%

Source: CATIE

Avg in CA 80.2%

Age of Coffee Plantations

Mexico

Guatemala

El Salva

dor

Nicaragua

Costa Rica

Panama

Dominican Rep.

0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%

100%

less than 10 yrs 11 to 20 yrs more than 20 yrs

Source: OIRSA

Data not available for Honduras, but is known to have younger plantations.

Other Compounding Factors

• Greater losses among small scale farmers• Other plagues and diseases; climate change• Lower quality – less income from differentials• Lower price and smaller crop - lower credit • No good solutions for organic production

Coffee Rust not only destroyed my farm, but also my dreams.

- Ernestina Martínez, Ojo de Agua,

Honduras

Estimates of Average Gross Annual Income for Coffee Farmers

10/11 11/12 12/13 13/14*0

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000

14,000

16,000

Honduras Guatemala Costa RicaNicaragua El Salvador

US$

Falls 56.5% on avg for CA in 4 yrs

Cost of production has also increased from fighting rust

Employment on Coffee Farms in El Salvador

050,000

100,000150,000200,000250,000300,000350,000400,000

temporary workerspermanent workers

Source: Based on IV Censo Agropecuario and Consejo Salvadoreño del Café

336

283

181

Social impacts

• Over 500,000 farm and processing jobs lost in 2013 in Central America

• Average less than 3 hct per farmer• Few employment/income/staple food production

alternatives in coffee areas• Assessment in Guatemala (WFP)

– 43% of coffee HH spend over 65% of income on food– 85% grow corn/beans but not enough for whole year– 37% of laborers have no other livelihood– 15% of small farmers have no other source of income– 35,000 vulnerable families who need assistance– 37,000 additional families at risk of becoming food insecure

Action Plan• Food assistance for over

55,000 families for 3-5 months (WFP)

• Early warning and information system

• Research on blends• Research on varieties• Research and train farmers

on fighting coffee rust• Identify sources for

financing/innovative tools• Diversification

More than a crisis, it is a new beginning for coffee in Central America.

- Robéiro Oliveira Silva, Executive Director ICO