O. Ovalle, P. Laderach, C. BunnIIASA, Laxenburg. December 2011

Pic by Lenareh

Global impact of climate change on Coffee and Cocoa Suitability

Pic by N. Palmer

Outline• Methodology• Results

- Coffee- Cacao

• Next step

Pic by N. Palmer

Methodology

Pic by N. Palmer

Precipitation: 47,554 locations Mean temperature: 24,542 locations Min – Max temp.: 14,835 locations

Data base Worldclim: www.worldclim.org

Methodology. Global impact of climate change on coffee and cocoa suitability

Climate base line

19 bioclimatic variables.

Global Climate Models (GCM)

• 21 “global climate models” (GCMs) basing in science atmospheric, chemical, physical, biology

• It runs from past to future.• There are different scenarios of gas emissions.

POLITICAL UNCERTAINTY (EMISSIONS), AND SCIENTIFIC UNCERTAINTY (MODELS)

Methodology. Global impact of climate change on coffee and cocoa suitability

Global Climate Models (GCM)Methodology. Global impact of climate change on coffee and cocoa suitability

Data Base

• Data base CIAT for 2030 and 2050• For the elaboration of adapting paths

http://gisweb.ciat.cgiar.org/GCMPage/

Process: DatabaseMethodology. Global impact of climate change on coffee and cocoa suitability

GCM: scenarios

Scenario A2 • Heterogeneous world• Increasing global

population• Economics development

is primarily regionally oriented

• Technological change area more fragmented.

Methodology. Global impact of climate change on coffee and cocoa suitability

Summary methodology

Current climate• 19 bioclimatic variables (worldclim)

Climate change• Downscaling • Generation of 19 bioclimatic variables

Future climate • Current climate + change = Future climate

Methodology. Global impact of climate change on coffee and cocoa suitability

MaxEnt

Geo-referencing coffee and cocoa farms.

Training of technical assistants.

Modelling coffee and cocoa

Climate data

Methodology. Global impact of climate change on coffee and cocoa suitability

Results

Pic by N. Palmer

CoffeePic by N. Palmer

Global coffee distribution Result. Global impact of climate change on coffee suitability

Future climate in coffee – growing Areas

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(mm) Precipitation Temperature (ºC)

JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC

2050 2030

current

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-- -

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Result. Global impact of climate change on coffee suitability

Global coffee suitability map Result. Global impact of climate change on coffee suitability

Global coffee suitability map Result. Global impact of climate change on coffee suitability

Suitability vs altitude Result. Global impact of climate change on coffee suitability

Coefficient of Variation (CV) Result. Global impact of climate change on coffee suitability

Measure agreement Result. Global impact of climate change on coffee suitability

COCOA

Pic by Christine4nier

Global cocoa distribution Result. Global impact of climate change on cocoa suitability

Future climate in cocoa – growing Areas

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(mm) Precipitation Temperature (ºC)

JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC

2050 2030

current

+ ++

++

+ +++

+ ++

Result. Global impact of climate change on cocoa suitability

Global cocoa suitability map Result. Global impact of climate change on cocoa suitability

Global cocoa suitability map Result. Global impact of climate change on cocoa suitability

Suitability vs altitude Results Global Cocoa suitability map

Coefficient of Variation (CV) Result. Global impact of climate change on cocoa suitability

Measure agreement Result. Global impact of climate change on cocoa suitability

Next step

Pic by N. Palmer

Relationship Suitability vs production• Objective:

– Improve Impact assessments on perennial crops

• Problem: – Alternative approaches are often unfeasible– The models assume constant economic conditions

• Question:– How can we link Ecological Niche Models with partial

equilibrium models to assess climate change impacts on the coffee industry and similar production systems?

• Hypothesis: – Ecological Niche Models assign a „suitability“ score. From

this score we can infer economic proxies to model future price conditions.

Next step. Global impact of climate change on coffee and cocoa suitability

Thank you!!!