Coca-Cola Valuation

56
Coca-Cola Assumptions Hist. 2009 INCOME STATEMENT Revenues - $ $ 30,900,000 COGS excl deprec - % sales 33% Deprec - % of beg PP&E 11% SG&A- Increase as % Sales growth 42% Amortization expense - $ $ 63,000 Restructuring charge-$ $ 51,000 Gain(Loss) on sale-$ $ 313,000 Effective tax rate 24% Interest income-$ $ 249,000 Interest expense-$ $ 355,000 Dividens-$ $ (3,800,000) SHAREHOLDER INFORMATION Basic WASO 2,314,000 Diluted WASO 2,329,000 Dividends per share - $ $ 1.64 BALANCE SHEET Cash and Cash Equivalents % SALES 23% Short Term Investments -$ $ 2,192,000 Net receivable - % Sales 12% Inventories - % COGS + depreciation 21% other current assets - % sales 7% PP&E % SALES 31% Goodwill - $ 4,224,000.00 Long term Investments - $ $ 6,755,000 Capital expenditures - $ $ (1,993,000) Other long-term assets - % Sales 6% Additions to Intangible assets Accounts payable - % COGS 69% short/current long term debt - % COGS 67% Long term debt -$ $ 5,059,000 Other liabilities-$ $ 2,965,000 Deferred Long Term Liability Changes-$ $ 1,580,000 Minority Interest-$ $ 547,000 Common Stock $ 880,000 Retained Earnings $ 41,537,000 Treasury Stock $ (25,398,000)

description

Attached is my recent valuation of coca-cola.

Transcript of Coca-Cola Valuation

Page 1: Coca-Cola Valuation

Coca-Cola Assumptions Hist. Hist.

2009 2010

INCOME STATEMENT

Revenues - $ $ 30,900,000 $ 35,119,000 COGS excl deprec - % sales 33% 33%Deprec - % of beg PP&E 11% 8%SG&A- Increase as % Sales growth 42% 37%Amortization expense - $ $ 63,000 $ 102,000 Restructuring charge-$ $ 51,000 $ 59,000 Gain(Loss) on sale-$ $ 313,000 $ 819,000 Effective tax rate 24% 25%Interest income-$ $ 249,000 $ 317,000 Interest expense-$ $ 355,000 $ 733,000 Dividens-$ $ (3,800,000) $ (4,068,000)

SHAREHOLDER INFORMATIONBasic WASO 2,314,000 2,308,000 Diluted WASO 2,329,000 2,333,000 Dividends per share - $ $ 1.64 $ 1.76

BALANCE SHEETCash and Cash Equivalents % SALES 23% 24%Short Term Investments -$ $ 2,192,000 $ 2,820,000 Net receivable - % Sales 12% 13%Inventories - % COGS + depreciation 21% 21% other current assets - % sales 7% 9%PP&E % SALES 31% 42%Goodwill - $ 4,224,000.00 11,665,000.00 Long term Investments - $ $ 6,755,000 $ 7,585,000 Capital expenditures - $ $ (1,993,000) $ (2,215,000)Other long-term assets - % Sales 6% 6%Additions to Intangible assets $ 6,640,000 Accounts payable - % COGS 69% 79%short/current long term debt - % COGS 67% 81%Long term debt -$ $ 5,059,000 $ 14,041,000 Other liabilities-$ $ 2,965,000 $ 4,794,000 Deferred Long Term Liability Changes-$ $ 1,580,000 $ 4,261,000 Minority Interest-$ $ 547,000 $ 314,000 Common Stock $ 880,000 $ 880,000 Retained Earnings $ 41,537,000 $ 49,278,000 Treasury Stock $ (25,398,000) $ (27,762,000)

A18
Lyons: 2: 1 Share split in 2012
Page 2: Coca-Cola Valuation

Capital Surplus $ 8,537,000 $ 10,057,000 Other Stockholder Equity $ (757,000.00) $ (1,450,000)

Page 3: Coca-Cola Valuation

Coca-Cola Hist. Proj Proj Proj

2011 2012 2013 2014

$ 46,542,000 $ 50,963,490 $ 56,314,656 $ 62,509,269 36% 36% 39% 40%11% 11% 10% 10%13% 35% 34% 34%

$ 192,000 $ 192,000 $ 192,000 $ 192,000 $ 52,000 $ 52,000 $ 52,000 $ 52,000 $ 732,000 $ 732,000 $ 732,000 $ 732,000

24% 24% 24% 24% $ 483,000 $ 483,000 $ 483,000 $ 483,000 $ 417,000 $ 417,000 $ 417,000 $ 417,000 $ (4,300,000) $ (4,300,000) $ (4,300,000) $ (4,300,000)

2,284,000 2,284,000 2,284,000 2,284,000 2,323,000 2,323,000 2,323,000 2,323,000 $ 1.88 $ 1.88 $ 1.88 $ 1.88

28% 29% 32% 33% $ 1,232,000 1,232,000 1,232,000 1,232,000

11% 13% 14% 14%17% 19% 19% 19%

7% 8% 8% 8%32% 29% 28% 27%

12,219,000.00 12,219,000.00 12,219,000.00 12,219,000.00 $ 8,374,000 $ 8,374,000 $ 8,374,000 $ 8,374,000 $ (2,920,000) $ (2,920,000) $ (2,920,000) $ (2,920,000)

8% 9% 10% 11% $ 206,000 $ - $ - $ -

57% 68% 68% 68%90% 0% 0% 0%

$ 13,656,000 $ 13,656,000 $ 13,656,000 $ 13,656,000 $ 5,420,000 $ 5,420,000 $ 5,420,000 $ 5,420,000 $ 4,694,000 $ 4,694,000 $ 4,694,000 $ 4,694,000 $ 286,000 $ 286,000 $ 286,000 $ 286,000 $ 880,000 $ 880,000 $ 880,000 $ 880,000 $ 53,550,000 $ 62,295,526 $ 71,402,180 $ 81,075,323 $ (31,304,000) $ (31,304,000) $ (31,304,000) $ (31,304,000)

Page 4: Coca-Cola Valuation

$ 11,212,000 $ 11,212,000 $ 11,212,000 $ 11,212,000 $ (2,703,000) $ (2,703,000) $ (2,703,000) $ (2,703,000)

$ - $ - $ -

Page 5: Coca-Cola Valuation

Coca-Cola Proj Proj Proj Proj

2015 2016 2017 2018

$ 69,697,835 $ 77,852,481 $ 87,973,304 $ 100,729,433 41% 42% 43% 44%10% 9% 10% 12%33% 33% 32% 31%

$ 192,000 $ 192,000 $ 192,000 $ 192,000 $ 52,000 $ 52,000 $ 52,000 $ 52,000 $ 732,000 $ 732,000 $ 732,000 $ 732,000

24% 24% 24% 24% $ 483,000 $ 483,000 $ 483,000 $ 483,000 $ 417,000 $ 417,000 $ 417,000 $ 417,000 $ (4,300,000) $ (4,300,000) $ (4,300,000) $ (4,300,000)

2,284,000 2,284,000 2,284,000 2,284,000 2,323,000 2,323,000 2,323,000 2,323,000 $ 1.88 $ 1.88 $ 1.88 $ 1.88

34% 35% 36% 38%1,232,000 1,232,000 1,232,000 1,232,000

15% 16% 15% 17%19% 19% 19% 19%

8% 8% 8% 8%27% 26% 27% 30%

12,219,000.00 12,219,000.00 12,219,000.00 12,219,000.00 $ 8,374,000 $ 8,374,000 $ 8,374,000 $ 8,374,000 $ (2,920,000) $ (2,920,000) $ (2,920,000) $ (2,920,000)

12% 13% 13% 14% $ - $ - $ - $ -

68% 68% 68% 68%0% 0% 0% 0%

$ 13,656,000 $ 13,656,000 $ 13,656,000 $ 13,656,000 $ 5,420,000 $ 5,420,000 $ 5,420,000 $ 5,420,000 $ 4,694,000 $ 4,694,000 $ 4,694,000 $ 4,694,000 $ 286,000 $ 286,000 $ 286,000 $ 286,000 $ 880,000 $ 880,000 $ 880,000 $ 880,000 $ 91,961,249 $ 104,027,435 $ 117,465,385 $ 132,413,268 $ (31,304,000) $ (31,304,000) $ (31,304,000) $ (31,304,000)

Page 6: Coca-Cola Valuation

$ 11,212,000 $ 11,212,000 $ 11,212,000 $ 11,212,000 $ (2,703,000) $ (2,703,000) $ (2,703,000) $ (2,703,000) $ - $ - $ - $ -

Page 7: Coca-Cola Valuation

Coca-Cola Proj Proj Proj

2019 2020 2021

$ 115,133,742 $ 131,252,466 $ 147,790,276 45% 46% 47%11% 11% 13%30% 31% 32%

$ 192,000 $ 192,000 $ 192,000 $ 52,000 $ 52,000 $ 52,000 $ 732,000 $ 732,000 $ 732,000

24% 24% 24% $ 483,000 $ 483,000 $ 483,000 $ 417,000 $ 417,000 $ 417,000 $ (4,300,000) $ (4,300,000) $ (4,300,000)

2,284,000 2,284,000 2,284,000 2,323,000 2,323,000 2,323,000 $ 1.88 $ 1.88 $ 1.88

40% 43% 4100%1,232,000 1,232,000 1,232,000

16% 17% 15%19% 19% 19%

8% 8% 8%31% 30% 32%

12,219,000.00 12,219,000.00 12,219,000.00 $ 8,374,000 $ 8,374,000 $ 8,374,000 $ (2,920,000) $ (2,920,000) $ (2,920,000)

15% 16% 17% $ - $ - $ -

68% 68% 68%0% 0% 0%

$ 13,656,000 $ 13,656,000 $ 13,656,000 $ 5,420,000 $ 5,420,000 $ 5,420,000 $ 4,694,000 $ 4,694,000 $ 4,694,000 $ 286,000 $ 286,000 $ 286,000 $ 880,000 $ 880,000 $ 880,000 $ 150,414,809 $ 169,386,062 $ 188,555,887 $ (31,304,000) $ (31,304,000) $ (31,304,000)

Page 8: Coca-Cola Valuation

$ 11,212,000 $ 11,212,000 $ 11,212,000 $ (2,703,000) $ (2,703,000) $ (2,703,000) $ - $ - $ -

Page 9: Coca-Cola Valuation

Coca-Cola Assumptions Hist. Hist.

2008 2009

Global vs USApproach 2: Global vs US

Global Sales analysisRevenues - Outside US 22,979,000

growth rateRevenues - US 8,011,000

growth rateNon US sales - % DSDTotal revenues - approx 30,990,000

implied growth rate

Revenue scenariosSelect a revenue growth scenario

1 2 3 4

Hist.

2008

Revenue growth rate assumptionRevenue - $

Page 10: Coca-Cola Valuation

Coca-Cola Hist. Hist. Proj Proj Proj

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

24,490,000 27,843,000 32,019,450 38,423,340 48,029,175 6.6% 13.7% 15.0% 20.0% 25.0%

10,629,000 18,699,000 30,853,350 49,365,360 74,048,040 32.7% 75.9% 65.0% 60.0% 50.0%

35,119,000 46,542,000 62,872,800 87,788,700 122,077,21513.32% 32.53%

Revenue scenariosSelect a revenue growth scenario 4

Base case 13.5% 14.0%Upside case = High global growth 13.5% 14.0%Downside case - Limited global growth 13.0% 12.9%Extreme - Health Trends Slow Growth 12.0% 11.5%

Hist. Hist. Hist. Proj Proj

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

12.0% 11.5%30,900,000 35,119,000 46,542,000 52,127,040 58,121,650

Page 11: Coca-Cola Valuation

Coca-Cola Proj Proj Proj Proj Proj

2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

62,918,219 86,197,960 124,987,043 191,230,175 304,055,978 31.0% 37.0% 45.0% 53.0% 59.0%

103,667,256 134,767,433 168,459,291 208,889,521 250,667,425 40.0% 30.0% 25.0% 24.0% 20.0%

166,585,475 220,965,393 293,446,334 400,119,696 554,723,403

14.2% 14.5% 14.6% 14.8% 15.0%14.6% 15.0% 15.5% 16.0% 16.5%12.5% 12.3% 12.0% 11.0% 10.0%11.4% 11.0% 10.0% 9.0% 8.0%

Proj Proj Proj Proj Proj

2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

11.4% 11.0% 10.0% 9.0% 8.0%64,747,518 71,869,745 79,056,719 86,171,824 93,065,570

Page 12: Coca-Cola Valuation

Coca-Cola Proj Proj

2020 2021

492,570,685 788,113,096 62.0% 60.0%

295,787,562 340,155,696 18.0% 15.0%

788,358,246 1,128,268,792

15.3% 15.4% 15.0%17.0% 17.5% 18.0%

9.6% 9.5% 9.4%7.0% 6.0% 6.0%

Proj Proj Proj

2019 2020 2021

7.0% 6.0% 6.0%99,580,160 105,554,969 111,888,267

Page 13: Coca-Cola Valuation

Coca-ColaBalance Sheet Hist. 12/31/2009 Hist. 12/31/2010Hist. 12/31/2011 Proj 2012Current Assets

Cash and Cash Equivalents $ 7,021,000 $ 8,517,000 12,803,000 17,192,364 Short Term Investments $ 2,192,000 $ 2,820,000 $ 1,232,000 - Net Receivables $ 3,758,000 $ 4,430,000 $ 4,920,000 6,625,254 Inventory $ 2,354,000 $ 2,650,000 $ 3,092,000 5,129,193 Other Current Assets $ 2,226,000 $ 3,162,000 $ 3,450,000 4,077,079

Total Current Assets $ 17,551,000 $ 21,579,000 $ 25,497,000 $ 33,023,889

Long term Investments $ 6,755,000 $ 7,585,000 $ 8,374,000 8,374,000 Property Plant and Equipment $ 9,561,000 $ 14,727,000 $ 14,939,000 16,215,710 Goodwill $ 4,224,000 $ 11,665,000 $ 12,219,000 12,219,000 Intangible Assets $ 8,604,000 $ 15,244,000 $ 15,450,000 15,258,000 Other Assets $ 1,976,000 $ 2,121,000 $ 3,495,000 4,077,079

Total Assets $ 48,671,000 $ 72,921,000 $ 79,974,000 $ 89,167,678

Liabilities

Current Liabilities

Accounts Payable $ 6,921,000 $ 9,132,000 $ 9,371,000 12,475,862 Short/Current Long Term Debt $ 6,800,000 $ 9,376,000 $ 14,912,000 $ 14,912,000

Total Current Liabilities $ 13,721,000 $ 18,508,000 $ 24,283,000 $ 27,387,862

Long Term Debt $ 5,059,000 $ 14,041,000 $ 13,656,000 13,656,000 Other Liabilities $ 2,965,000 $ 4,794,000 $ 5,420,000 5,420,000 Deferred Long Term Liability Changes $ 1,580,000 $ 4,261,000 $ 4,694,000 4,694,000 Minority Interest $ 547,000 $ 314,000 $ 286,000 286,000

Total Liabilities $ 23,872,000 $ 41,918,000 $ 48,339,000 $ 51,443,862

Stockholder's Equity

Common Stock $ 880,000 $ 880,000 $ 880,000 880,000 Retained Earnings $ 41,537,000 $ 49,278,000 $ 53,550,000 62,295,526 Treasury Stock $ (25,398,000) $ (27,762,000) $ (31,304,000) (31,304,000)Capital Surplus $ 8,537,000 $ 10,057,000 $ 11,212,000 11,212,000 Other Stockholder Equity $ (757,000) $ (1,450,000) $ (2,703,000) (2,703,000)

Total Stockholder Equity $ 24,799,000 $ 31,003,000 $ 31,635,000 $ 37,723,816

Total Laibilities + Stockholder Equity $ 48,671,000 $ 72,921,000 $ 79,974,000 $ 89,167,678

balance check - - - -

Page 14: Coca-Cola Valuation

Proj 2013 Proj 2014 Proj 2015 Proj 2016 Proj 2017 Proj 2018

22,192,665 27,842,495 34,217,038 41,612,877 52,041,767 61,867,049 - - - - - - 7,884,052 8,751,298 10,454,675 12,456,397 13,195,996 17,124,004 5,794,487 6,502,118 7,297,734 7,988,729 9,275,254 11,026,243 4,505,173 5,000,741 5,575,827 6,228,198 7,037,864 8,058,355

$ 40,376,376 $ 48,096,652 $ 57,545,274 $ 68,286,202 $ 81,550,881 $ 98,075,650

8,374,000 8,374,000 8,374,000 8,374,000 8,374,000 8,374,000 17,514,139 18,682,725 19,734,453 20,878,352 21,710,517 22,025,255 12,219,000 12,219,000 12,219,000 12,219,000 12,219,000 12,219,000 15,066,000 14,874,000 14,682,000 14,490,000 14,298,000 14,106,000 4,505,173 5,000,741 5,575,827 6,228,198 7,037,864 8,058,355

$ 98,054,687 $ 107,247,119 $ 118,130,553 $ 130,475,752 $ 145,190,262 $ 162,858,259

14,934,647 17,002,521 19,431,756 22,234,669 25,723,394 30,138,246 $ 14,912,000 $ 14,912,000 $ 14,912,000 $ 14,912,000 $ 14,912,000 $ 14,912,000

$ 29,846,647 $ 31,914,521 $ 34,343,756 $ 37,146,669 $ 40,635,394 $ 45,050,246

13,656,000 13,656,000 13,656,000 13,656,000 13,656,000 13,656,000 5,420,000 5,420,000 5,420,000 5,420,000 5,420,000 5,420,000 4,694,000 4,694,000 4,694,000 4,694,000 4,694,000 4,694,000 286,000 286,000 286,000 286,000 286,000 286,000

$ 53,902,647 $ 55,970,521 $ 58,399,756 $ 61,202,669 $ 64,691,394 $ 69,106,246

880,000 880,000 880,000 880,000 880,000 880,000 71,402,180 81,075,323 91,961,249 104,027,435 117,465,385 132,413,268 (31,304,000) (31,304,000) (31,304,000) (31,304,000) (31,304,000) (31,304,000) 11,212,000 11,212,000 11,212,000 11,212,000 11,212,000 11,212,000 (2,703,000) (2,703,000) (2,703,000) (2,703,000) (2,703,000) (2,703,000)

$ 44,152,041 $ 51,276,598 $ 59,730,797 $ 69,273,083 $ 80,498,868 $ 93,752,013

$ 98,054,687 $ 107,247,119 $ 118,130,553 $ 130,475,752 $ 145,190,262 $ 162,858,259

- - - - - -

Page 15: Coca-Cola Valuation

Proj 2019 Proj 2020 Proj 2021

77,936,270 92,506,573 111,771,775 - - - 18,421,399 22,312,919 22,168,541 12,266,713 13,948,938 16,070,802 9,210,699 10,500,197 11,823,222

$ 117,835,081 $ 139,268,628 $ 161,834,341

8,374,000 8,374,000 8,374,000 22,522,477 22,965,004 22,899,554 12,219,000 12,219,000 12,219,000 13,914,000 13,722,000 13,530,000 9,210,699 10,500,197 11,823,222

$ 184,075,257 $ 207,048,829 $ 230,680,116

35,230,925 41,055,771 46,831,783 $ 14,912,000 $ 14,912,000 $ 14,912,000

$ 50,142,925 $ 55,967,771 $ 61,743,783

13,656,000 13,656,000 13,656,000 5,420,000 5,420,000 5,420,000 4,694,000 4,694,000 4,694,000 286,000 286,000 286,000

$ 74,198,925 $ 80,023,771 $ 85,799,783

880,000 880,000 880,000 150,414,809 169,386,062 188,555,887 (31,304,000) (31,304,000) (31,304,000) 11,212,000 11,212,000 11,212,000 (2,703,000) (2,703,000) (2,703,000)

$ 109,876,332 $ 127,025,058 $ 144,880,334

$ 184,075,257 $ 207,048,829 $ 230,680,116

- - -

Page 16: Coca-Cola Valuation

Coca-Cola

Income Statement12/31/2011 12/31/2010 12/31/2009

Total Revenue $ 46,542,000 $ 35,119,000 $ 30,900,000

Cost of Revenue $ 18,216,000 $ 12,693,000 $ 11,088,000

Gross Profit $ 28,326,000 $ 22,426,000 $ 19,812,000

Gross profit margin 61% 64% 64%

Selling General and Administrative $ 17,440,000 $ 13,158,000 $ 11,358,000

Gain/(loss) on sale $ 732,000 $ 819,000 $ 313,000

Operating profit $ 10,154,000 $ 8,449,000 $ 8,141,000

Operating Margin 22% 24% 26%

Intrest income $ 483,000 $ 317,000 $ 249,000

Interest Expense $ 417,000 $ 733,000 $ 355,000

equity income (loss) $ 690,000 $ 1,025,000 $ 781,000

other income (loss) $ 529,000 $ 5,185,000 $ 40,000

Income Before income Tax $ 11,439,000 $ 14,243,000 $ 8,856,000

Income Tax Expense $ 2,805,000 $ 2,384,000 $ 2,040,000

Consolidated Net Income $ 8,634,000 $ 11,859,000 $ 6,816,000

Less net income attributable to non controlling intrests $ 62,000 $ 50,000 $ 82,000

Net Income $ 8,572,000 $ 11,809,000 $ 6,734,000

Net margin 18% 34% 22%

share holder/other information

Depreciation espense $ 1,654,000 $ 1,188,000 $ 1,005,000

amortization expense $ 192,000 $ 102,000 $ 63,000

Net earnings per share

Basic $ 3.75 $ 5.12 $ 2.95

Diluted $ 3.69 $ 5.06 $ 2.93

Weighted average common shares outstanding Diluted $ 2,323,000 $ 2,333,000 $ 2,329,000

Cash Dividens Declared per common share $ 1.88 $ 1.76 $ 1.64

Restructuring charge $ 52,000 $ 59,000 $ 51,000

Page 17: Coca-Cola Valuation

Coca-Cola "Cleaned"

Income StatementHist. 12/31/2009 Hist. 12/31/2010 Hist. 12/31/2011

Total Revenue $ 30,900,000 $ 35,119,000 $ 46,542,000

Cost of Revenue (excl deprc) $ 10,083,000 $ 11,505,000 $ 16,562,000

Gross Profit $ 20,817,000 $ 23,614,000 $ 29,980,000

Gross Profit Margin 67% 67% 64%

Selling General and Administrative cleaned $ 11,295,000 $ 13,056,000 $ 17,248,000

EBITA $ 9,522,000 $ 10,558,000 $ 12,732,000

Depreciation espense $ 1,005,000 $ 1,188,000 $ 1,654,000

amortization expense $ 63,000 $ 102,000 $ 192,000

EBITA-core, reccuring $ 8,454,000 $ 9,268,000 $ 10,886,000

Core, recurring EBIT margin 27% 26% 23%

Restructuring charge $ 51,000 $ 59,000 $ 52,000

Gain/(loss) on sale $ 313,000 $ 819,000 $ 732,000

Operating Profit as reported $ 8,716,000 $ 10,028,000 $ 11,566,000

Interest income $ 249,000 $ 317,000 $ 483,000

Interest expense $ 355,000 $ 733,000 $ 417,000

Earnings before tax $ 8,610,000 $ 9,612,000 $ 11,632,000

Income tax (provision) $ 2,040,000 $ 2,384,000 $ 2,805,000

Net earnings $ 6,570,000 $ 7,228,000 $ 8,827,000

Net Profit Margin 21% 21% 19%

share holder/other information

Depreciation espense $ 1,005,000 $ 1,188,000 $ 1,654,000

amortization expense $ 63,000 $ 102,000 $ 192,000

Net earnings per share

Basic $ 2.95 $ 5.12 $ 3.75

Diluted $ 2.93 $ 5.06 $ 3.69

Weighted average common shares outstanding Diluted $ 2,329,000 $ 2,333,000 $ 2,323,000

Cash Dividens Declared per common share $ 1.64 $ 1.76 $ 1.88

dividens $ (3,800,000) $ (4,068,000) $ (4,300,000)

Page 18: Coca-Cola Valuation

Proj 2012 Proj 2013 Proj 2014 Proj 2015

50,963,490 56,314,656 62,509,269 69,697,835 18,346,856 21,962,716 25,003,707 28,576,112

32,616,634 34,351,940 37,505,561 41,121,722

64% 61% 60% 59%

17,837,222 19,146,983 21,253,151 23,000,285

14,779,412 15,204,957 16,252,410 18,121,437

1,643,290 1,621,571 1,751,414 1,868,273 192,000 192,000 192,000 192,000 12,944,122 13,391,386 14,308,996 16,061,164

25% 24% 23% 23%

52,000 52,000 52,000 52,000 732,000 732,000 732,000 732,000 13,624,122 14,071,386 14,988,996 16,741,164

483,000 483,000 483,000 483,000 417,000 417,000 417,000 417,000 13,690,122 14,137,386 15,054,996 16,807,164

3,301,306 3,409,162 3,630,439 4,052,966 10,388,816 10,728,225 11,424,557 12,754,199

20% 19% 18% 18%

1,643,290 1,621,571 1,751,414 1,868,273 192,000 192,000 192,000 192,000

2,323,000 2,323,000 2,323,000 2,323,000 $ 1.88 $ 1.88 $ 1.88 $ 1.88 (4,300,000) (4,300,000) (4,300,000) (4,300,000)

Page 19: Coca-Cola Valuation

Proj 2016 Proj 2017 Proj 2018 Proj 2019 Proj 2020

77,852,481 87,973,304 100,729,433 115,133,742 131,252,466 32,698,042 37,828,521 44,320,950 51,810,184 60,376,134

45,154,439 50,144,783 56,408,482 63,323,558 70,876,331

58% 57% 56% 55% 54%

25,691,319 28,151,457 31,226,124 34,540,123 40,688,264

19,463,120 21,993,326 25,182,358 28,783,435 30,188,067

1,776,101 2,087,835 2,605,262 2,422,778 2,477,472 192,000 192,000 192,000 192,000 192,000 17,495,020 19,713,491 22,385,096 26,168,657 27,518,595

22% 22% 22% 23% 21%

52,000 52,000 52,000 52,000 52,000 732,000 732,000 732,000 732,000 732,000 18,175,020 20,393,491 23,065,096 26,848,657 28,198,595

483,000 483,000 483,000 483,000 483,000 417,000 417,000 417,000 417,000 417,000 18,241,020 20,459,491 23,131,096 26,914,657 28,264,595

4,398,733 4,933,706 5,577,951 6,490,338 6,815,869 13,842,287 15,525,784 17,553,145 20,424,319 21,448,726

18% 18% 17% 18% 16%

1,776,101 2,087,835 2,605,262 2,422,778 2,477,472 192,000 192,000 192,000 192,000 192,000

2,323,000 2,323,000 2,323,000 2,323,000 2,323,000 $ 1.88 $ 1.88 $ 1.88 $ 1.88 $ 1.88 (4,300,000) (4,300,000) (4,300,000) (4,300,000) (4,300,000)

Page 20: Coca-Cola Valuation

Proj 2021

147,790,276 68,870,269

78,920,007

53%

47,292,888

31,627,119

2,985,451 192,000 28,449,669

19%

52,000 732,000 29,129,669

483,000 417,000 29,195,669

7,040,393 22,155,276

15%

2,985,451 192,000

2,323,000 $ 1.88 (4,300,000)

Page 21: Coca-Cola Valuation

Coca-ColaCash Flow Statement Hist. 12/31/2009 Hist. 12/31/2010 Hist. 12/31/2011

Net Income

Depreciation

Amortization

Operating Activities

Change in Accounts Recievable

Change in Inventories

Change in Other Currents Assets

Change in Accounts Payable

Change in Other Current Liabilities

Change in Other Longterm Investments

Change in Short Term Investments

Other long term assets

Total Cash Flow from Operating Activities $ - $ - $ -

Investing Activities

Capital Expenditures $ (1,993,000) $ (2,215,000) $ (2,920,000)

Investments $ (2,152,000) $ (679,000) $ 803,000

GoodwillChange Intangible AssetsOther Liabilities

Total Cash Flows From Investing Activities $ (4,145,000) $ (2,894,000) $ (2,117,000)

Financing Activities

Common Stock

Long-term Debt

Other Liabilities

Dividends Paid

Purchasing of Treasury

Total Cash Flows from Financing Activities $ - $ - $ -

Effect of Exchange Rate Changes

Change in Cash

balance at beginning of yearChange in Cash balance at end of year 12,803,000

Page 22: Coca-Cola Valuation

Coca-ColaProj 2012 Proj 2013 Proj 2014 Proj 2015 Proj 2016 Proj 2017

10,388,816 10,728,225 11,424,557 12,754,199 13,842,287 15,525,784 1,643,290 1,621,571 1,751,414 1,868,273 1,776,101 2,087,835 192,000 192,000 192,000 192,000 192,000 192,000

(1,705,254) (1,258,798) (867,246) (1,703,378) (2,001,722) (739,599) (2,037,193) (665,294) (707,631) (795,616) (690,995) (1,286,525) (627,079) (428,093) (495,569) (575,085) (652,372) (809,666) 3,104,862 2,458,785 2,067,874 2,429,235 2,802,912 3,488,725 - - - - - - - - - - - - $ 1,232,000 $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - (582,079) (428,093) (495,569) (575,085) (652,372) (809,666) $ 11,609,364 $ 12,220,301 $ 12,869,830 $ 13,594,543 $ 14,615,840 $ 17,648,889

(2,920,000) (2,920,000) (2,920,000) (2,920,000) (2,920,000) (2,920,000)0 0 0 0 0 00 0 0 0 0 00 0 0 0 0 0

- - - - - -

$ (2,920,000) $ (2,920,000) $ (2,920,000) $ (2,920,000) $ (2,920,000) $ (2,920,000)

0 0 0 0 0 0 - - - - - - - - - - - - (4,300,000) (4,300,000) (4,300,000) (4,300,000) (4,300,000) (4,300,000) - - - - - -

$ (4,300,000) $ (4,300,000) $ (4,300,000) $ (4,300,000) $ (4,300,000) $ (4,300,000)

$ 4,389,364 $ 5,000,301 $ 5,649,830 $ 6,374,543 $ 7,395,840 $ 10,428,889

12,803,000 17,192,364 22,192,665 27,842,495 34,217,038 41,612,877 $ 4,389,364 $ 5,000,301 $ 5,649,830 $ 6,374,543 $ 7,395,840 $ 10,428,889 17,192,364 22,192,665 27,842,495 34,217,038 41,612,877 52,041,767

Page 23: Coca-Cola Valuation

Coca-ColaProj 2018 Proj 2019 Proj 2020 Proj 2021

17,553,145 20,424,319 21,448,726 22,155,276 2,605,262 2,422,778 2,477,472 2,985,451 192,000 192,000 192,000 192,000

(3,928,008) (1,297,395) (3,891,520) 144,378 (1,750,988) (1,240,470) (1,682,225) (2,121,864) (1,020,490) (1,152,345) (1,289,498) (1,323,025) 4,414,852 5,092,679 5,824,846 5,776,012 - - - - - - - - $ - $ - $ - $ - (1,020,490) (1,152,345) (1,289,498) (1,323,025) $ 17,045,282 $ 23,289,221 $ 21,790,303 $ 26,485,202

(2,920,000) (2,920,000) (2,920,000) (2,920,000)0 0 0 00 0 0 00 0 0 0

- - - -

$ (2,920,000) $ (2,920,000) $ (2,920,000) $ (2,920,000)

0 0 0 0 - - - - - - - - (4,300,000) (4,300,000) (4,300,000) (4,300,000) - - - -

$ (4,300,000) $ (4,300,000) $ (4,300,000) $ (4,300,000)

$ 9,825,282 $ 16,069,221 $ 14,570,303 $ 19,265,202

52,041,767 61,867,049 77,936,270 92,506,573 $ 9,825,282 $ 16,069,221 $ 14,570,303 $ 19,265,202 61,867,049 77,936,270 92,506,573 111,771,775

Page 24: Coca-Cola Valuation

Coca-Cola Corp

Measures 12/31/2009 12/31/2010 12/31/2011Income MeasuresGross profit $ 19,812,000 $ 22,426,000 $ 28,326,000 Operating profit $ 8,141,000 $ 8,449,000 $ 10,154,000 EBIT: core and recurring $ 8,454,000 $ 9,268,000 $ 10,886,000 Net income $ 6,570,000 $ 7,228,000 $ 8,827,000 Operating working capital measures

Working capital $ 3,830,000.00 $ 3,071,000.00 $ 1,214,000.00 Operating working capital = OWC $ 7,665,000 $ 7,653,000 $ 10,706,000 Net new investment in OWC $ 12,000.00 $ (3,053,000.00)Cash flow measures

Capital Expenditures $ (1,993,000) $ (2,215,000) $ (2,920,000)Depreciation & amortization $ 1,068,000 $ 1,290,000 $ 1,846,000 EBITDA - core and recurring 7,386,000 7,978,000 9,040,000 NOPAT - core recurring 6,450,962 6,969,320 8,260,894 Operating Cash Flow 7,518,962 8,259,320 10,106,894 Free Cash Flow 5,537,962 2,991,320 7,106,000 Valuation measures

Book value of equity 24,799,000 31,003,000 31,635,000 Market value of equity - basic shares 2,329,000 2,333,000 2,323,000

A11
Cash included since the outlets must have cash in drawers for operations.
Page 25: Coca-Cola Valuation

12/31/2012 12/31/2013 12/31/2013 12/31/2014 12/31/2015

$ 22,426,000 $ 19,812,000 $ - Gross Profit $ 20,817,000 $ 8,449,000 $ 8,141,000 $ - Depreciation espen $ 1,005,000 $ 12,944,122 $ 13,391,386 $ 14,308,996 $ 16,061,164 $ 17,495,020 $ 10,388,816 $ 10,728,225 $ 11,424,557 $ 12,754,199 $ 13,842,287

$ 5,636,026.81 $ 10,529,729.07 $ 16,182,131.19 $ 23,201,517.26 $ 31,139,533.03 $ 15,128,027 $ 20,021,729 $ 25,674,131 $ 32,693,517 $ 40,631,533

$ (2,920,000) $ (2,920,000) $ (2,920,000) $ (2,920,000) $ (2,920,000) $ 1,835,290 $ 1,813,571 $ 1,943,414 $ 2,060,273 $ 1,968,101

11,108,832 11,577,815 12,365,582 14,000,892 15,526,919 9,733,678 10,218,514 14,308,996 16,061,164 17,495,020

11,568,968 12,032,085 16,252,410 18,121,437 19,463,120 7,106,000 7,106,000 7,106,000 7,106,000 7,106,000

37,723,816 44,152,041 51,276,598 59,730,797 69,273,083 2,323,000 2,323,000 2,323,000 2,323,000 2,323,000

Page 26: Coca-Cola Valuation

12/31/2016

$ 23,614,000 $ 1,188,000 $ 19,713,491 $ 15,525,784

$ 40,915,486.88 $ 50,407,487

$ (2,920,000) $ 2,279,835

17,433,656 19,713,491 21,993,326

7,106,000

80,498,868 2,323,000

Page 27: Coca-Cola Valuation

12/31/2017 12/31/2018 12/31/2019 12/31/2020

$ 29,980,000 $ 32,616,634 $ 34,351,940 $ 37,505,561 $ 1,654,000 $ 1,643,290 $ 1,621,571 $ 1,751,414 $ 22,385,096 $ 26,168,657 $ 27,518,595 $ 28,449,669 $ 17,553,145 $ 20,424,319 $ 21,448,726 $ 22,155,276

$ 53,025,403.85 $ 67,692,156.36 $ 83,300,856.54 $ 100,090,557.89 $ 62,517,404 $ 77,184,156 $ 92,792,857 $ 109,582,558

$ (2,920,000) $ (2,920,000) $ (2,920,000) $ (2,920,000) $ 2,797,262 $ 2,614,778 $ 2,669,472 $ 3,177,451

19,587,834 23,553,879 24,849,122 25,272,218 22,385,096 26,168,657 27,518,595 28,449,669 25,182,358 28,783,435 30,188,067 31,627,119

7,106,000 7,106,000 7,106,000 7,106,000

93,752,013 109,876,332 127,025,058 144,880,334 2,323,000 2,323,000 2,323,000 2,323,000

Page 28: Coca-Cola Valuation

Coca-Cola Corp.

Ratios Hist. 12/31/2009 Hist. 12/31/2010Quick Ratio 1.11 1.02 Current Ratio 1.28 1.17 Days sales outstanding 44.39 46.04Inventory turnover 13.13 x 13.25 xInventory days 77.49 76.20Fixed asset turnover 3.23 x 2.38 xTotal asset turnover 0.63 x 0.48 xCAPEX/sales 6.45% 6.31%OWC/sales 25% 22%Total debt/equity 48% 76%Total debt to Total assets ratio 24% 32%TIE 23.81 x 12.64 xROA 13% 10%ROE 26% 23% FCF $ 5,537,962 $ 2,991,320 Basic earing power 17% 13%Year over year growth in sales - -12%Year over year growth in net income - -9%Year over year growth in EBIT - -10%Year over year growth in FCF - 85%Year over year growth in EPS (diluted) - -42%P/E 8.98 5.94Price to Book 2.5 2.2Price to Free Cash Flow 10.99 23.19Earnings Yield 11% 17%Dividend yield 6% 6%

A26
Using free cash flow
Page 29: Coca-Cola Valuation

Coca-Cola Corp.

Hist. 12/31/2011 0.92 1.05

38.5815.05 x

61.963.12 x0.58 x6.27%

23%90%36%

26.11 x11%28%

$ 7,106,000 14%

-25%-18%-17%-58%37%

10.442.8

12.3810%

5%

Page 30: Coca-Cola Valuation

COCA-COLA Hist. Proj Proj

2011 2012 2013

EQUITYEquity - beginning balance 31,635,000 37,723,816 Net income 10,388,816 10,728,225 Dividends (4,300,000) (4,300,000)Equity - ending balance 31,635,000 37,723,816 44,152,041

PP&EPP&E, Beginning 14,939,000 16,215,710 CAPEX (2,920,000) (2,920,000)Depreciation 1,643,290 1,621,571 PP&E Ending 14,939,000 16,215,710 17,514,139

INTANGIBLE ASSETSBeginning balance 15,450,000 15,258,000 Additions - - Amortization 192,000 192,000 Ending balance 15,450,000 15,258,000 15,066,000

Page 31: Coca-Cola Valuation

Proj Proj Proj Proj Proj Proj Proj

2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

44,152,041 51,276,598 59,730,797 69,273,083 80,498,868 93,752,013 109,876,332 11,424,557 12,754,199 13,842,287 15,525,784 17,553,145 20,424,319 21,448,726 (4,300,000) (4,300,000) (4,300,000) (4,300,000) (4,300,000) (4,300,000) (4,300,000) 51,276,598 59,730,797 69,273,083 80,498,868 93,752,013 109,876,332 127,025,058

17,514,139 18,682,725 19,734,453 20,878,352 21,710,517 22,025,255 22,522,477 (2,920,000) (2,920,000) (2,920,000) (2,920,000) (2,920,000) (2,920,000) (2,920,000) 1,751,414 1,868,273 1,776,101 2,087,835 2,605,262 2,422,778 2,477,472 18,682,725 19,734,453 20,878,352 21,710,517 22,025,255 22,522,477 22,965,004

15,066,000 14,874,000 14,682,000 14,490,000 14,298,000 14,106,000 13,914,000 - - - - - - - 192,000 192,000 192,000 192,000 192,000 192,000 192,000 14,874,000 14,682,000 14,490,000 14,298,000 14,106,000 13,914,000 13,722,000

Page 32: Coca-Cola Valuation

Proj

2021

127,025,058 22,155,276 (4,300,000) 144,880,334

22,965,004 (2,920,000) 2,985,451 22,899,554

13,722,000 - 192,000 13,530,000

Page 33: Coca-Cola Valuation

Coca-Cola24% 25% 24%

2,284,000 2,308,000 2,314,000 2,323 2,333 2,329

38.52 30.06 26.3

$ (4,300,000) $ (4,068,000) $ (3,800,000)

Page 34: Coca-Cola Valuation

EBIT 14,779,412

Depreciation & amortization 1,846,000

Change in OWC & other operating cash flows

CAPEX

Tax rate

FCF long run growth rate 3%

WACC 7%

Cash 27,742,000

Value of Debt 13,656,000.0

Shares of stock outstanding 2,323,000.0

EV/EBITDA multiple (ltm) 11.0

A: Enterprise Valuation: Relative Valuation using Trailing EBITDA Multiple

EBITDA 16,614,702.1

EV 182,761,723.1

Equity value 196,847,723.1

Share price $84.74

B: Enterprise Valuation Assuming Constant Growth

FCFEV 245,972,589.6

Equity value 260,058,589.6

Share price $111.95

C: Enterprise Valuation: Use Forecast since we assume Non-Constant Growth over short term;TV is based off EBITDA Multiple

Variable growth phase

Year (for discounting)

Free cash flow

Present value of FCF

Page 35: Coca-Cola Valuation

TV using EBITDA multiple

PV of TV 17,767,802.1

Enterprise value 117,384,383.0

Equity value 131,470,383.0

Share price $56.60

D: Enterprise Valuation: Use Forecast since we assume Non-Constant Growth over short term;TV assumes we hit steady state and can apply constant growth model

Stable growth phase

Free cash flow during first year of stable growth

Enterprise value when growth becomes stable

Present value of enterprise value in stable phase 56,678,711.4

Enterprise value 156,295,292.4

Equity value 170,381,292.4

Share price $73.35

E: Enterprise Valuation Assuming Non-Constant Growth and Finite Time Horizon

Year

Free cash flow

FCF growth rate expected

Year (for discounting)

Free Cash Flow

PV of FCF

Enterprise Value for 60 year time horizon 151,676,403.1

Equity value 165,762,403.1

Share price $71.36

End

Page 36: Coca-Cola Valuation

15,204,957 16,252,410 18,121,437 19,463,120 21,993,326

1,835,290 1,813,571 1,943,414 2,060,273 1,968,101

(614,742) (321,495) (498,141) (1,219,928) (1,194,548)

(2,920,000) (2,920,000) (2,920,000) (2,920,000) (2,920,000)

24% 24% 24% 24% 24%

9,838,903.6

C: Enterprise Valuation: Use Forecast since we assume Non-Constant Growth over short term;TV is based off EBITDA Multiple

1 2 3 4 5

9,838,903.6 10,905,297.0 12,276,814.1 12,690,028.0 14,543,295.7

9,195,237.0 9,525,108.7 10,021,537.3 9,681,161.6 10,369,168.8

Page 37: Coca-Cola Valuation

D: Enterprise Valuation: Use Forecast since we assume Non-Constant Growth over short term;TV assumes we hit steady state and can apply constant growth model

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

9,838,903.6 10,905,297.0 12,276,814.1 12,690,028.0 14,543,295.7

10.8% 12.6% 3.4% 14.6%

1 2 3 4 5

9,838,903.6 10,905,297.0 12,276,814.1 12,690,028.0 14,543,295.7

9,195,237.0 9,525,108.7 10,021,537.3 9,681,161.6 10,369,168.8

Page 38: Coca-Cola Valuation

25,182,358 28,783,435 30,188,067 31,627,119 -

2,279,835 2,797,262 2,614,778 2,669,472 3,177,451

(156,730) (3,305,125) 250,124 (2,327,895) 1,152,476

(2,920,000) (2,920,000) (2,920,000) (2,920,000) -

24% 24% 24% 24% 24%

6 7 8 9 10 11

18,312,860.5 18,414,587.7 22,853,263.9 21,421,971.2 4,329,926.4

12,202,632.2 11,467,679.7 13,300,807.7 11,652,133.0 2,201,115.0

Page 39: Coca-Cola Valuation

34,951,956.0

D: Enterprise Valuation: Use Forecast since we assume Non-Constant Growth over short term;TV assumes we hit steady state and can apply constant growth model

0.0

111,495,604.1

2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021

18,312,860.5 18,414,587.7 22,853,263.9 21,421,971.2 4,329,926.4 4,535,597.9

25.9% 0.6% 24.1% -6.3% -79.79% 4.75%

6 7 8 9 10 11

18,312,860.5 18,414,587.7 22,853,263.9 21,421,971.2 4,329,926.4 4,535,597.9

12,202,632.2 11,467,679.7 13,300,807.7 11,652,133.0 2,201,115.0 2,154,829.9

Page 40: Coca-Cola Valuation

2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028

4,751,038.8 4,964,835.5 5,175,841.0 5,382,874.7 5,584,732.5 5,780,198.1 5,968,054.5

4.75% 4.50% 4.25% 4.00% 3.75% 3.50% 3.25%

12 13 14 15 16 17 18

4,751,038.8 4,964,835.5 5,175,841.0 5,382,874.7 5,584,732.5 5,780,198.1 5,968,054.5

2,109,518.0 2,060,230.2 2,007,280.4 1,951,001.5 1,891,742.1 1,829,862.7 1,765,732.0

Page 41: Coca-Cola Valuation

2029 2030 2031 2032 2033 2034 2035

6,147,096.2 6,331,509.1 6,521,454.3 6,717,098.0 6,918,610.9 7,126,169.2 7,339,954.3

3.00% 3.00% 3.00% 3.00% 3.00% 3.00% 3.00%

19 20 21 22 23 24 25

6,147,096.2 6,331,509.1 6,521,454.3 6,717,098.0 6,918,610.9 7,126,169.2 7,339,954.3

1,699,723.3 1,636,182.3 1,575,016.6 1,516,137.4 1,459,459.4 1,404,900.2 1,352,380.5

Page 42: Coca-Cola Valuation

2036 2037 2038 2039 2040 2041 2042

7,560,152.9 7,786,957.5 8,020,566.3 8,261,183.2 8,509,018.7 8,764,289.3 9,027,218.0

3.00% 3.00% 3.00% 3.00% 3.00% 3.00% 3.00%

26 27 28 29 30 31 32

7,560,152.9 7,786,957.5 8,020,566.3 8,261,183.2 8,509,018.7 8,764,289.3 9,027,218.0

1,301,824.3 1,253,157.9 1,206,310.9 1,161,215.2 1,117,805.3 1,076,018.1 1,035,793.2

Page 43: Coca-Cola Valuation

2043 2044 2045 2046 2047 2048 2049

9,298,034.5 9,576,975.6 9,864,284.8 10,160,213.4 10,465,019.8 10,778,970.4 11,102,339.5

3.00% 3.00% 3.00% 3.00% 3.00% 3.00% 3.00%

33 34 35 36 37 38 39

9,298,034.5 9,576,975.6 9,864,284.8 10,160,213.4 10,465,019.8 10,778,970.4 11,102,339.5

997,071.9 959,798.2 923,917.9 889,378.9 856,131.1 824,126.2 793,317.8

Page 44: Coca-Cola Valuation

2050 2051 2052 2053 2054 2055 2056

11,435,409.7 11,778,471.9 12,131,826.1 12,495,780.9 12,870,654.3 13,256,773.9 13,654,477.2

3.00% 3.00% 3.00% 3.00% 3.00% 3.00% 3.00%

40 41 42 43 44 45 46

11,435,409.7 11,778,471.9 12,131,826.1 12,495,780.9 12,870,654.3 13,256,773.9 13,654,477.2

763,661.0 735,112.9 707,632.1 681,178.5 655,713.9 631,201.3 607,604.9

Page 45: Coca-Cola Valuation

2057 2058 2059 2060 2061 2062 2063

14,064,111.5 14,486,034.8 14,920,615.9 15,368,234.3 15,829,281.4 16,304,159.8 16,793,284.6

3.00% 3.00% 3.00% 3.00% 3.00% 3.00% 3.00%

47 48 49 50 51 52 53

14,064,111.5 14,486,034.8 14,920,615.9 15,368,234.3 15,829,281.4 16,304,159.8 16,793,284.6

584,890.7 563,025.7 541,978.0 521,717.1 502,213.7 483,439.3 465,366.8

Page 46: Coca-Cola Valuation

2064 2065 2066 2067 2068 2069 2070

17,297,083.2 17,815,995.6 18,350,475.5 18,900,989.8 19,468,019.5 20,052,060.1 20,653,621.9

3.00% 3.00% 3.00% 3.00% 3.00% 3.00% 3.00%

54 55 56 57 58 59 60

17,297,083.2 17,815,995.6 18,350,475.5 18,900,989.8 19,468,019.5 20,052,060.1 20,653,621.9

447,969.9 431,223.4 415,102.9 399,585.0 384,647.3 370,267.9 356,426.2

Page 47: Coca-Cola Valuation

62