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Decisions 1. It helps in evaluating players for late 6+ round draft picks2. Value of a drafted player by coattail effect and anecdotal effect

Explanatory and dependent variables value of a drafted player is measured in two separate ways.

1. In the first method, dependent variable is a binary outcome of whether or not theplayer reaches the major leagues.

2. In the second method, dependent variable is his career wins above replacements.

Analytics approach 1. For first methodP(MLBi)= Ao + A1*Roundi + A2*(Roundi)^2 + A3*(Roundi)^3 + A4*coattaili + UiWhere P(MLBi) is the probability that a player i reaches the major leagues, Ao is aconstant term, Roundi is the round in which a player was drafted, coattaili is a dummyvariable indicating whether or not a player had a teammate who was a top prospect, A4is the effect of playing with a top prospect on the chance that a player reaches the majorleagues, given the round he was drafted in, and Ui is the residual.

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2. In second methodA players expected performance is calculated by following ways if he reaches the major leagues

ln(WARi)= Bo + B1*Roundi + B2*(Roundi) 2 + B3*(Roundi)^3 + B4*coattaili + Ei

where WARi is a players expected wins above replacement, Bo is a constant term, B1 is the percentage effect of a oneround increase on a players expected WAR, B4 is the effect of playing with a top prospect on a players expectedthe round he was drafted in, and Ei is the residual. A log- linear model is used to reduce the effect of large ouliers in WAR.

Results and implications-

1. Coattail effect- when a college baseball team has a star prospect, a player good enough to draw the attention of largenumber of scouts, his teammates are more likely to be drafted in later rounds.

2. Anecdotal evidence- suggests that, in later rounds, scouts are more likely to recommend players with whom they are

familiar, which is consistent with the findings in this study.This relation holds for not only the year in which a top prospect is drafted, but also for the previous year and thetwo following years.

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Limitations-

1. If scouts do rely on this coattail effect, it is theoretically possible that they are making suboptimal

decisions, as their goal is to always select the most talented player available with each draft pick,regardless of the quality of their teammates. However, there is currently little evidence in support ofthat theory. Players who were teammates of a top prospect actually over-performed their expectedperformance, given the round in which they were selected, when measured by how likely they were toeventually reach the major leagues. A model using major- league performance, conditional onreaching the major leagues, showed no significant predictive value from a variable indicating thepresence of a coattail effect.

2. The coattail effect in baseball scouting is very difficult to detect in available data.

Coattail effect in other sports

This effect is seen in IPL cricket bidding where if a player is good in playing long hits and belongs to certainregion, then chances are high that his regional teammates are drafted in next round.