Coated Steels Market Tracker Galvanized Steel and Tinplate ......Galvanized Steel and Tinplate...

Coated Steels Market Tracker Market analysis and intelligence covering the global coated steels and tinplate markets

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Global hot-dipped galvanised strip prices x

Source: Metal Bulletin Research

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Galvanized Steel and Tinplate Market TrackerMarket analysis of coated steels including galvanized, tinplate, organic coated and pre-painted steel

Issue 171 April 201318 April 2013www.metalbulletinresearch.com

ContentsCoated steel and substrate prices 2North America 4Europe 6Asia 8Tinplate 10Demand indicators 12

The US HDG market is fixed into a wait-and-see mode at the moment, with the mills’ latest attempt at raising prices by $50/short ton clearly failing and further falls in prices – at least for the next month or so – seen as being very likely.

European coated steel prices have this month fallen back to levels seen at the start of the year, following a brief upwards move in March. The falls have come largely on the back of falling input costs and fears regarding previously-seized material from Ilva’s Taranto facility entering the market.

Asian coated steel prices have also fallen this month and although we are anticipating further falls in the short term we believe tdemand outlook is better than the market perceives.

The global tinplate market remains divided, with only markets in Asia offering sustained growth prospects at present. While US demand is steadily recovering, the EU remains characterized by structural overcapacity and weak demand levels.

Global prices slide on falling input costs Contrasting demand outlook in EU and USA : p. 4, 6 Asian demand affected by customer destocking: p. 8

Global hot-dipped galvanised strip prices ($/tonne)Prices are being pushed up by cost pressures but mills are struggling to achieve greater margins


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Forecast

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April 2013 Galvanized Steel and Tinplate Market Tracker 3

Metal Bulletin Research

L. America Europe Turkey CIS Persian Gulf Japan USA Latin America Europe CIS Japan South Korea

Domestic Import Export Domestic Export Export Import c&f Export Domestic Export Export Export Export Export

Aug 12 875 900 721 765 790 1,038 1,068 823 1,400 1,260 1,340 1,180 1,430 1,265

Sep 12 877 900 691 772 785 1,122 1,152 818 1,350 1,245 1,340 1,190 1,450 1,300

Oct 12 825 900 663 770 785 1,122 1,152 818 1,330 1,240 1,300 1,200 1,370 1,300

Nov 12 815 1,009 765 724 760 1,095 850 780 1,320 1,240 1,260 1,120 1,300 1,275

Dec 12 870 910 765 750 778 845 845 845 1,320 1,240 1,200 1,000 1,240 1,280

Jan 13 871 915 750 781 760 835 775 840 1,310 1,210 1,100 1,040 1,269 880

Feb 13 882 915 750 777 785 850 800 850 1,310 1,220 1,100 1,040 1,302 880

Mar 13 904 915 770 763 785 852 800 850 1,310 1,220 1,200 950 1,140 1,180

Apr 13 882 915 750 755 763 820 775 850 1,320 1,200 1,220 960 1,190 1,180

May 13 871 915 740 752 763 808 775 825 1,320 1,200 1,220 960 1,190 1,180

Jun 13 871 915 740 739 763 808 775 800 1,320 1,200 1,250 970 1,210 1,200

Jul 13 882 915 750 739 763 820 775 775 1,320 1,200 1,250 990 1,210 1,200Source: Metal Bulletin Research

Notes (1) fob or ex-mill except where stated (2) thin gauge cif Gulf Port (3) basis 0.21mm basis (4) Exports are fob Antwerp (5) CIS Export material from the Black Sea. Import prices are cif delivered.

We have taken a price, which we feel most accurately represents a median transaction price. However, usually business takes place within a

range of the value allocated. Prices are based on most common grade, excl. extras.

Tinplate prices ($/tonne)HDG prices ($/tonne)

USA

Historical and forecast coated steel market prices

LME LME LME LME US EU avg Japan US EU avg Japancash 3-m cash 3-m domestic domestic export domestic domestic export$/t $/t $/t $/t $/t €/t $/t $/t €/t $/t

Jan 12 21,461 21,502 1,981 1,995 757 466 607 911 556 761Feb 12 24,343 24,395 2,058 2,076 776 542 638 930 662 799Mar 12 23,016 23,059 2,035 2,049 753 546 644 892 638 806Apr 12 21,795 21,845 1,988 1,994 722 545 646 858 606 809May 12 20,371 20,389 1,930 1,934 717 532 646 856 643 798Jun 12 19,263 19,251 1,856 1,857 690 525 632 803 612 783Jul 12 18,631 18,634 1,851 1,855 640 518 628 780 604 757Aug 12 18,645 18,645 1,814 1,833 678 508 616 819 588 755Sep 12 20,697 20,658 2,002 2,031 691 498 560 827 587 721Oct 12 21,321 21,300 1,912 1,950 630 488 533 771 579 716Nov 12 20,700 20,685 1,904 1,934 690 472 547 785 560 729Dec 12 22,844 22,844 2,038 2,066 725 462 556 800 545 735Jan 13 24,674 24,653 2,031 2,055 716 486 563 800 550 742Feb 13 24,326 24,334 2,129 2,151 705 502 574 793 575 733Mar 13 23,337 23,359 1,936 1,962 695 513 628 794 585 740Apr 13 22,849 22,860 1,854 1,889 664 499 638 772 584 735

% change comparisons:Year-on-year 5% 5% -7% -5% -8% -8% -1% -10% -4% -9%Month-on-month -2.1% -2.1% -4.2% -3.8% -4.5% -2.7% 1.6% -2.8% -0.2% -0.7%-100%Source: LME, Metal Bulletin Research, * prices are an average of weekly prices between Coated Steel Monthly publications

MBR's global raw material pricesTin prices Zinc prices Hot rolled coil prices* Cold rolled coil prices*

Coated steel and substrate price analysis

Local

Currency Local $/tonne Local $/tonne Local $/tonne Local $/tonneUSA domestic $/ton 800 882 819 902 868 957 1,197 1,320USA import (2) $/ton - 915 - - - - - -Latin America export - 750 - - - - - 1,200

.Europe import/export (4) 588 768 - 821 669 875 933 1,220Germany domestic (5) €/tonne 578 755 593 775 686 897 980 1,281France domestic €/tonne 578 755 - - 700 915 980 1,281Italy domestic €/tonne 540 706 580 758 674 881 960 1,255UK domestic £/tonne 515 789 - - - - 691 1,059Turkey export - 763 - - - - - -CIS export (6) - 850 - - - - - 960Gulf region import c&f - 800 - - - - - 1,100

Japan domestic (7) ¥/tonne 135,000 1,376 150,000 1,528 165,000 1,681 115,000 1,172Japan export (7) - 850 - - - - 1,190South Korea domestic ₩/tonne 1,000,000 892 890,000 794 1,100,000 982 1,325,000 1,183South Korea export - 810 - 785 - - - 1,180China domestic Rmb/tonne 4,898 792 5,520 892 5,880 950 7,350 1,188China export (8) - 683 - 722 - 830 - 930Iran import - 795 - - - - - -Indian domestic Rs/tonne 45,250 829 - - - - - -Indian export - 803 - - - - - -

Selected coated steel prices for this month (1)

Tinplate (3)Pre-painted coil ELG

Notes (1) fob or ex-mill prices except where stated, including coating extras (2) thin gauge cif Gulf Port (3) 0.21mm basis (4) HDG/ELG are import, tinplate is export (5) European HDG prices include base coating extras. (6) CIS export material from the Black Sea. (7) Tex report for HDG. (8) Base price excludes coating extras. Import prices are cif basis; '-' denotes products that are either not produced/exported or n/a not enough business has taken place to accurately gauge prices.We have taken a price, which we feel most accurately represents a median transaction price. However, usually business takes place within a range of the value allocated.

HDG

4 Galvanized Steel and Tinplate Market Tracker April 2013


US HDG mills give back price gains with further fall back likelyA combination of an oversupplied market, falling scrap prices and general economic uncertainty is exerting strong downward pressure upon the US HDG market, causing domestic mills to give back just about all the gains they had achieved in the past year or so, despite four or five price hike attempts. As of mid-April, base prices for G-90 HDG sheet had fallen back to $680-$720/short ton, down from $720-$740/ton in March. This brings them more or less back to where they had been this time last year despite approximately 11 price gyrations over the past 12 months.

Officially, extras have remained steady in the past month on weak zinc pricing. We have heard of some discounting of extras prices, however, especially on large volume orders and this has brought some HDG transaction prices down even further.

Despite gradual increases in end-user demand in the USA, we believe that HDG prices could fall even further in the near term, especially if scrap prices fall again in May. There are, however, several factors that could affect our hypothesis e.g. if the lagging construction market comes back faster than anticipated and if there is any rationalization of US coated steel production capacity. In the meantime, buyers remain very cautious. It is also possible that the mills could try to establish a floor with yet another price hike announcement, but MBR does not believe that attempt would be any more successful than the previous five.

Buyers remain on the sidelines waiting for prices to bottom outWith their inventory levels already at a very lean 2.3 months of supply on hand as of the end of March, distributors find themselves in the middle of a tightrope act. They largely remain on the

American Market Highlights

l Oversupply and falling scrap prices put downward pressure on pricesl Buyers stay on sidelines waiting to see how low prices falll All eyes are on the sale of ThyssenKrupp’s Calvert mill

Market Outlook The US HDG is fixed into a wait-and-see mode with the mills’ latest attempt at raising prices by $50/short ton clearly failing and further falls in prices – at least for the next month or so – seen as being very likely. We believe that this is largely supply driven. Underlying demand continues to slowly improve with even the largest laggard, non-residential construction, coming slightly off of its lows, with further modest improvement

expected as warmer temperatures help the building season kick in. Even with import activity remaining fairly light, the market remains in overcapacity. With this, plus falling scrap prices in April and most likely down in May as well, we do not believe there will be much scope for price increases in the near term. 600

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NAFTA passenger car and LCV production (M units), Automotive production in the NAFTA region is expected to continue its rebound this year, with output expected to be the highest in ten years

Source: OICA, Metal Bulletin Research Source: AISI, Metal Bulletin Research

USA net imports of coated steel (‘000 tonnes) Although the USA is a net importer of coated steels, new facilities may not necessarily be needed should TK’s Calvert mill ramp up



American Market Highlights

l Oversupply and falling scrap prices put downward pressure on pricesl Buyers stay on sidelines waiting to see how low prices falll All eyes are on the sale of ThyssenKrupp’s Calvert mill

sidelines, buying no more than they absolutely need, while being watchful of not letting their stocks fall so low that they cannot meet their customers’ just-in-time needs. They are, however, being aided somewhat by the fact that mill lead times are quite short, only five to six weeks for most mills and at most eight weeks. Still, there is very little speculative buying going on.

Demand is improving slowly, but is still not greatNot only is demand from the automotive sector quite strong, with North American auto builds expected to increase 3.2% to 15.9m passenger cars and light commercial vehicles this year, but even the lagging construction sector is showing some signs of life. US housing starts remain on pace for a 25% year on year increase this year and even non-residential construction appears to have bottomed out, rising a very slight 2.6% year on year in February with further, albeit very modest, improvements possible as stubborn wintry conditions give way to the warmer conditions that are more conducive to construction projects. The fact that the American Institute of Architects’ architecture billing index reached 54.5 points in February – its highest reading since November 2007 – is another positive sign for future construction activity.

US manufacturing in general remains positive with the US Federal Reserve reporting 3.5% year on year growth for overall industrial production in March and with the Institute for Supply Management’s purchasing managers’ manufacturing index remaining positive at 51.3, although this is below February’s 54.2 index reading.

All eyes are on who buys ThyssenKrupp’s Calvert millThe upcoming, potential sale of ThyssenKrupp’s Calvert mill continues to hang over the supply-demand balance of the US HDG market. Should a domestic mill or a foreign mill that already has a presence in the United States acquire the facility, depending on who it is, we believe that it could result in the rationalization of the purchaser’s older, less cost efficient steelmaking capacity. However, if a newcomer to the country wins the bidding war, the current overcapacity in the market will persist with the Calvert mill continuing to exert downward pricing pressure as it seeks to gain market share.

Our sources are also perplexed by John Correnti’s decision to build his Big River Steel mill in Arkansas given the current oversupply. With $125m of state financing approved by the Arkansas legislature this month he is closer to the planned 2016 startup date for the 1.7m short tons per year facility. While under current market conditions we do not feel that this new capacity is needed, it is possible that if the construction market continues to recover and the automotive and energy markets keep on strengthening, this new capacity could be justified. In any case, it appears as if the mill will be entering the marketplace at a better time than when ThyssenKrupp’s Calvert mill came on-stream.

North American trends in production and apparent consumption of coated steel ('000 tonnes)

2010 2011 2012 Q1 12 Q2 12 Q3 12 Q4 12 Jul 12 Aug 12 Sep 12 Oct 12 Nov 12 Dec 12 Jan 13m-o-m % change

y-o-y % change

USA

HDG Production 10,673 12,428 14,013 2,980 3,093 3,160 3,070 1,083 1,135 1,141 1,060 999 1,011 1,132 12% -10%

Apparent consumption 10,892 12,699 14,619 2,950 3,192 3,299 3,257 1,147 1,188 1,194 1,124 1,078 1,055 1,213 15% -3%

ELG Production 1,513 1,389 1,377 369 355 324 328 91 115 118 121 111 96 121 26% 3%

Apparent consumption 1,218 1,140 1,098 287 279 259 274 65 94 101 96 93 84 101 21% 11%

Other Production 965 1,478 1,466 376 373 370 347 115 118 138 110 116 120 127 6% 5%

Apparent consumption 1,100 1,745 1,769 462 481 411 415 101 129 180 121 143 152 151 0% -6%

Canada

Galvanised* Production 1,979 1,886 2,318 380 393 374 392 184 208 195 216 201 183 218 19% 19%

Exports** 664 520 779 160 198 213 208 67 75 70 79 67 62 85 36% 67%

Imports*** 948 1,046 983 273 264 222 223 69 83 70 82 78 63 80 27% -18%

Apparent consumption 2,262 2,412 2,522 653 658 596 615 186 215 195 219 213 183 214 16% -7%*Domestic sales plus exports **exports by steel producers only ***permits

Source: AISI, StatsCanada, CSPA, MBR. Updated/revised figures are at times released by reporting agencies, these are italicised. % y-o-y change means change between latest month's data and previous year the same month. % m-o-m change means between latest month data compared to the previous month.



Prices weaken back to early 2013 levelsEuropean coated steel prices have this month moved back down to levels last seen in January, following the modest increase of last month. Ex-works prices of HDG in southern Europe are now finding support at €550/tonne, while those in northern Europe are closer to €580/tonne, both down by €10/tonne or so since March. Thinner-gauge (0.5mm) material in Turkey has also come under pressure, falling by some $10/tonne to $840/tonne (€640/tonne).

Fears about Taranto material flooding the market...The renewed price weakness comes as traders in southern Europe in particular have expressed worry about the damage that the release of seized material from the Ilva Taranto mill is having on the market. As much as 1.7Mt of semi-finished and finished steel products from the mill was seized by the Italian government late last year after the plant was found to have repeatedly violated environmental laws. The material was released back to Ilva almost two months ago, a decision eventually declared constitutional on April 9th following an appeal by a local court, and is now entering a market already characterized by overcapacity (see our February edition of Coated Steels Monthly) and a number of traders feel that it will only serve to strengthen further the hand of buyers.

Metal Bulletin Research estimates, however, that only about 200-300kt of the 1.7Mt of material seized will be zinc-coated steel, which compares to an annual market size of roughly 27Mt in the EU27 region, so the effect of this released material should not be overplayed too much.

European Market Highlights

l Prices fall back to early 2013 levelsl Falling input costs being passed on almost instantlyl Regional auto industry set for worst year in almost 20 years

European coated steel prices have this month fallen back to levels seen at the start of the year, following a brief upwards move in March. The falls have come largely on the back of falling input costs and fears regarding previously-seized material from Ilva’s Taranto facility entering the market.

With the market remaining clearly in the favour of buyers, prices are being driven largely by input costs and so we look at

our expectations for iron ore prices over the coming months. Iron ore prices fell sharply through March and, although they have since recovered somewhat, they are expected to remain subdued now until later this year.

With demand also weak, and expected to remain so, we continue to see any upward pricing movements this year as fleeting at best.

Market Outlook

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New passenger car registrations in Europe* (M units)Europe’s automotive sector is expected to have its worst year since records began this year

Source: ACEA, Metal Bulletin Research *EU15 + EFTA countries

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Indexed iron ore and HDG prices (Apr 2010 = 100), Coated steel prices have generally tended to follow the trend of iron ore prices. Expected falls to iron ore prices over the summer should therefore relieve cost pressures


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MBIO62 cfr Qingdao (62% Fe)

N.Europe HDG



...although price falls more likely linked to falling raw material costsInstead, the recent price weakness is more likely to be a reflection of falling raw material costs during March. Iron ore prices slipped by roughly 10% through March, although they have since recovered some strength. Nevertheless, with the coated steels market being very much a buyers’ market in Europe, producers are quick to pass on any reductions they can afford at present in order to maintain some business.

With these iron ore price falls, substrate prices have followed, both HRC and CRC falling in price by almost €25/tonne since the beginning of March, thus relieving the pressure on coated steel producers somewhat.

As the second quarter progresses we expect that raw material prices will continue to weaken from their highs at the start of the year. Steel mills are now thought to be well stocked with raw materials and are likely to remain so until later this year when restocking traditionally takes place. Thus on the cost side, we do not see much pressure being placed on coated steel producers through the following months although supply and demand fundamentals will continue to work against them.

Automotive sector expected to face worst year on record in 2013Demand from the key automotive and construction sectors is weak and expected to remain so. Metal Bulletin Research understands this month that automotive OEMs in the region are not requesting any extra coated steel on top of their contracted tonnages, as they have typically done, given the weakness of demand from this sector this year. The poor performance of the sector in Europe was this month summed up by the head of Europe’s automotive manufacturers’ association ACEA, who expected 2013 to be the worst since the early 1990s for European car sales, expecting a further 5-8% decline in sales following 2012’s 8.5% decline. Those OEMs supplying automotive manufacturers in countries such as France and Italy are suffering in particular given that a large number of automotive plants here are thought to be running at less than 50% of capacity due to their focus on stagnating domestic markets. OEMs exposed to automotive plants in Germany and the UK, however, are faring somewhat better given the relatively greater focus on exports that vehicle manufacturers in these countries have.

2010 2011 2012 Q1 12 Q2 12 Q3 12 Q4 12 Jul-12 Aug-12 Sep-12 Oct-12 Nov-12 Dec-12m-o-m %

changey-o-y % change

Germany

Exports HDG 2,462 2,469 2,380 644 626 558 552 179 181 198 205 213 134 -37% -11%

ELG 583 557 528 138 139 124 127 36 44 44 48 45 34 -23% -7%

Organic 349 352 370 87 97 100 86 33 31 36 34 32 20 -36% -13%

Imports HDG 2,931 3,154 3,101 785 802 779 736 272 225 282 296 257 183 -29% -16%

ELG 830 1,017 913 245 246 225 197 84 61 81 81 65 51 -21% -16%

Organic 424 521 495 123 135 139 98 54 41 45 36 39 24 -39% -38%Net exports HDG -469 -685 -722 -142 -176 -221 -184 -93 -44 -83 -91 -43 -50

ELG -247 -460 -385 -107 -108 -101 -70 -48 -16 -36 -33 -20 -17

Organic -75 -169 -126 -36 -38 -39 -12 -20 -10 -9 -2 -6 -3

France

Production Galvanised 3,789 3,859 3,526 986 967 785 788 321 135 329 323 297 168 -43% -17%

Organic 915 858 827 237 214 193 183 83 34 76 73 71 39 -45% -7%

Ap. consumption Galvanised 4,111 4,174 3,632 1,066 993 794 778 334 119 341 309 292 178 -39% -20%

Organic 627 640 560 173 141 125 121 57 17 51 46 47 29 -38% -7%

UK

Galvanised Production 948 947 863 223 218 210 212 74 66 70 78 79 55 -30% 15%

Net exports -1,913 -1,882 -1,188 -295 -310 -242 -245 -97 -59 -86 -95 -78 -72

Ap. Consumption 2,051 1,982 1,955 518 528 452 457 171 125 156 173 157 127 -19% 0%

Italy

Galvanised Production 3496 4267 4258 1227 1100 821 1110 347 157 317 447 374 289 -23% 5%

Net exports 356 905 1,387 406 454 281 246 95 111 76 102 88 56

Ap. Consumption 3140 3361 2871 821 646 540 864 252 46 241 345 286 232 -19% 19%

Organic-coated Production 496 447 470 111 126 135 98 45 45 45 41 37 20 -45% -8%

Net exports -107 -169 6 13 7 -31 16 -9 -20 -3 14 2 1

Ap. Consumption 603 616 465 98 119 166 82 54 65 48 27 35 19 -45% 3%

Spain

Galvanised Production 1549 1902 1693 426 519 355 393 131 68 156 115 139 139 0% 9%

Net exports -901 -969 -726 -186 -203 -185 -153 -59 -47 -79 -51 -64 -37

Ap. Consumption 2450 2871 2419 612 722 540 546 190 115 235 166 203 176 -13% -4%

Organic-coated Production 165 170 154 37 41 36 40 7 11 18 16 12 12 0% 0%

Net Exports -108 -143 -47 -24 -20 -12 8 -13 1 1 7 -1 1

Ap. Consumption 273 313 201 61 61 48 32 20 10 17 9 13 11 -16% -48%m-o-m and y-o-y % figures in bold represent the change to most recent month

European statistics for the galvanised coated steel sectors ('000 tonnes)



Chinese mills bow to downward pricing pressure…Though Baosteel has decided to leave domestic prices unchanged for May shipment, Chinese peers have decided to undo some of the gains secured for April. Baosteel’s targeted levels are at CNY5,337/tonne for HDG (for the DC51D + Z) (US$863/tonne) and CNY 7037/tonne for 0.5mm PPGI, considerably higher than their export (FOB) offers. Wugang, who raised prices by just CNY50/tonne last month for similar (DX51D + Z) commercial quality material, has decided to reduce them by up to CNY200/tonne, to just CNY4,870/tonne, still roughly $80/tonne above their export offers of $705/tonne fob, which include up to a Z140 coating. ELG and PPGI (colour coated coil) offers remain unchanged. The relative stability among mills has been reflected by distributors in the spot market but prices there remain substantially lower than the targeted levels of producers for they include VAT. Indeed Shougang’s level would be close if it included the additional 17% sales tax. Actual spot prices average at CNY4,898/tonne ex-warehouse, marginally lower than last month’s level.

Purchasing activity within China continues to disappoint market suppliers and the WSA’s latest outlook, suggesting apparent finished steel consumption will rise by less than 4% this year in China, again far below the GDP and IP projections of most forecasters, appears increasingly believable. Conditions in the steel consuming sectors could in fact be worse than in general manufacturing. The latest steel PMI fell strongly in March to 44.6, according to data from the CFLP. New orders and new export orders fared particularly badly, recording scores of just 41.3% and 42.4% (50% represents no change) while finished product inventories remain excessive, hitting 58.9%.

Asian Market Highlights

l Chinese mill prices remain unrealistic…l …but underlying demand may be better than is perceived.l Further downside price risks expected

During the past month, coated steel prices within Asia have broadly stabilised though the downside risks to prices have actually increased, even as the region enters what is normally a quarter of seasonal demand strength. Spot prices have typically fallen by less than $10/tonne in domestic markets though import prices have slipped by at least $20/tonne CFR. Moreover distributors anticipate further discounts can be offered before they will re-enter the market. Indeed, at around $740/tonne CFR for 1mm

HDG (including Z275), $20/tonne lower than existing bookings, service centres might be keen to replenish inventories though this assumes that the political tensions around North Korea subside. Although we are anticipating further falls in coated steel prices in the short term, as suppliers attempt to destock of surplus supplies, the demand outlook seems less bad than market perceptions as underlying demand indicators, such as for automotive production, have been more robust than expected.

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Chinese Galvanized exports, ‘000 tonnes Declining export markets can be seen in the trade statistics, which has led to price cuts by Chinese producers in order to try and maintain business


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Chinese automotive production, ‘000 units After a worrying drop in February, Chinese auto output reached record levels in March, suggesting that underlying demand for coated is stronger than perceived



Perhaps unsurprisingly, the Chinese government is pursuing efforts to shutter inefficient and polluting steelmaking capacity but for all the substantial reductions targeted on iron making (2.6m tpy), coke making (14m tpy) and ferroalloys (1.7m tpy), there are not noticeable plans to reduce coating capacity in China, quite unlike the pattern in other oversupplied markets such as Western Europe. Excessive production levels are at the heart of the problem for steelmakers keen to raise prices. While crude steel output may be rising more in-line with perceived demand levels in China, having increased 6.6% in March year-on-year, finished steel production has reportedly surged by 9.2% and as much as 12.3% over the first quarter. While much of this production has come in place of import volumes, which have fallen so far this year, Chinese finished market supply - apparent consumption - has risen by 11.6% in the first quarter, far in excess of the WSA’s 2013 projection. Wire rod and rebar production growth may be particularly severe and hence why market inventories of these products have climbed acutely so far this year, but the trend is little different for flat steel products, including HR and CRC. Inventories are up close to 40% and 20% respectively among distributors.

...but underlying demand looks strong.Nevertheless, looking at our Asia indicator table, you can see that important end-use sectors for galvanised steels such as domestic appliances and automotive production within China has actually been performing exceptionally well. The January numbers were particularly robust though the fluctuating activity around Chinese New Year always makes January and February comparisons hard to analyse. Provisional data for the first quarter, however, shows that automotive production in China rose by 12.6% year-on-year. Floorspace under construction, meanwhile, also rose strongly at 16.8%. Domestic washing machine production meanwhile, was not available at the time of writing but earlier numbers pointed to much weaker growth thus far, yet still far in excess of 5%.

The data dichotomy suggests to MBR that final consumers of coated steels have been reducing their steel inventories of late and boosting production of manufactured goods, which is why inventories have risen strongly among steel producers and their distributors. As we enter into what is traditionally more of a demand season in the region, between April and June, the surplus supply conditions should begin to recede. The prospects of prices rising at this time, however, seem remote, particularly as distributors are continuing to sell below the targeted levels of leading mills.

Regional import prices to weaken further on slack fundamentals and nuclear tensionsIn other Asian markets, prices remain under pressure from Chinese exports, which slipped under US$690/tonne fob for 1mm HDG. Mills target a range from just $685/tonne fob (from Handan/Benxi) to $730/tonne fob (Angang), but Chinese surplus supplies are not alone in the market. The depreciating yen and the impending merger of NSC with Sumitomo are combining to improve the competitiveness of Japanese suppliers as attested to by record export volumes in March. Into Hong Kong, import prices of 1mm HDG (including Z275 coating) have fallen US$20/tonne cfr to US$760/tonne cfr so far this month more than $100/tonne below the levels Japanese mills target to more attractive Southeast Asia.

Asian trends in production and apparent consumption of coated carbon steels ('000 tonnes)

2011 2012 Q3 12 Q4 12Q2 14Jun 12 Jul 12 Aug 12 Sep 12 Oct 12 Nov 12 Dec 12 Jan 13m-o-m %


HDGProduction 9,918 10,243 2,643 2,471 861 878 877 889 845 825 802 887 11% 4%

Apparent consumption 7,194 7,510 1,906 1,782 632 620 639 647 631 574 577 696 21% 1%

ELGProduction 2,302 2,029 557 440 162 192 191 174 165 143 132 138 5% -17%

Apparent consumption 777 795 212 144 72 75 61 76 57 42 46 68 47% -26%

OtherProduction 1,131 1,187 315 320 98 103 101 110 109 104 106 104 -2% 16%

HDGProduction 5,821 6,467 1,611 1,673 558 547 544 521 545 562 567 558 -2% 11%

Apparent consumption 4,845 4,827 1,168 1,220 421 396 382 390 414 395 411 390 -5% 5%

ELGProduction 1,705 1,720 435 393 158 143 146 146 134 135 124 150 21% 10%

Apparent consumption 1,095 1,095 270 245 104 91 94 86 83 89 73 100 37% 19%

Other*Production 2,108 2,072 523 532 178 153 194 176 177 179 176 181 3% 12%

Apparent consumption 1,105 1,067 274 288 105 62 112 100 95 111 82 84 2% -2%

HDGProduction 1,926 1,827 428 450 154 160 132 136 151 149 151 159 6% 16%

Apparent consumption 1,008 1,034 213 255 88 85 69 59 70 99 87 94 9% 39%

ELGProduction 226 181 50 41 14 19 20 12 17 11 14 17 23% 98%

Apparent consumption 130 91 21 22 8 9 9 3 9 6 7 10 54% 1213%

China

Galv. coil, sheetProduction 34,039 37,626 9,573 9,477 3,470 3,309 3,232 3,032 3,093 3,219 3,165 3,257 3% 22%

Apparent consumption 32,194 35,176 9,054 8,744 3,191 3,114 3,105 2,835 2,920 2,962 2,862 3,062 7% 19%

Organic coatedProduction 5,841 7,855 2,035 1,761 757 723 724 588 610 587 564 580 3% 13%

HDGNet exports 3,251 3,677 861 1,027 380.4 296.8 244.0 320.2 288.5 357.8 381.0 274.0 -28% 41%

ELGNet exports -1,406 -1,227 -342 -294 -101.0 -101.5 -117.3 -123.2 -115.3 -100.4 -78.1 -78.5 1% -2%

Japan

South Korea

Taiwan

Sources: JISF, KOSA, TSIIA, ISSB, WSA. Italicised numbers are Metal Bulletin Research estimates. % y-o-y change means change between current month and previous year the same month. % m-o-m change means between current month and previous month. Note: * Other pre coated colour sheet



No spring in the US tinplate market March should be marked by a quickening of orders for tinplate in anticipation of harvest demand at food canning plants but the modest US economic recovery seems to be as unrewarding for tinplate producers as for the rest of the steel industry. If orders for tinplate have picked up, it looks as if tinplate mills are taking the opportunity to clear excess delivery stocks rather than step up production, to judge from traders’ complaints of lack of a seasonal pick-up in mill tin buying orders.

There was slow tin buying in February that was put down to expectations among tinplate mills of further falls in the tin price following the decline from the January peak above $25,000/tonne ($11.34/lb). During March, however, slow order rates turned into deferrals of deliveries or even cancellations. With the tin price at a sustainable level, around $10.45/lb ($23,000/tonne or so) dealers expected a pick-up in orders in the first days of April. These were ahead of March, but a closer look at shows that the increases amount to no more than the taking up of some of the deferred quantities from the previous month.

Forward orders are lacking as well, with the steel industry showing the same caution as its own customers, and making the maximum use of stocks. Adjustment to tinplate stocks with mills, customers and in the trading system should be completed by mid-year, but traders are not expecting a big surge in order levels later in the year. In tinplate, as in much of the steel market, lead times are too short and demand too slack for dealers or customers to fear being caught unable to meet new orders. EU market – adjusted but still languishingEU mills may have completed their stock adjustments - the deep discounts offered by ArcelorMittal on Gulf export markets a few months ago were clearly part of the exercise, and they have not been reported again recently. The longer term adjustment, the winding down of excess capacity built when EU mills could maintain large net export balances, still has some way to go after some limited closures.

Steel demand is down, tinplate demand is down, and coil prices are down so tinplate mills can hardly expect to escape price reductions. Negotiations are aimed at damage limitation rather than price rises. Imports remain low; the seasonal demand increase has been disappointing, but enough in slightly tighter supply conditions to prevent a price collapse.

Global Tinplate Market Highlights

l High stocks and weak steel prices hold down US end-user demandl More declines and production cuts expected in the EU l Higher prices expected in Asian second quarter contracts

Divisions in the world market look set to continue for most of this year. US demand maintains a modest recovery but high levels of supply look likely to delay a recovery in prices. Meanwhile, EU producers will have to spend another year adjusting excess capacity in a market depressed by worsening conditions in the Eurozone. Although growth in steel demand has slowed in Asia, recovery looks certain and it

remains the only region offering prospects of sustained growth in demand for tinplate. Efforts in China to squeeze out the lowest quality tinplate producers by differential price rises of re-roll coil and tinplate, together with campaigns among its trading partners to block low-priced imports could result at last in a return to normal profits for tinplate producers in the region after a period of “profitless prosperity”.

700800900

100011001200130014001500

Q310

Q410

Q111

Q211

Q311

Q411

Q112

Q212

Q312

Q412

Q113

Q213


$/to

nne

Chinese tin plate export prices

Exchange rates against US$ (2005 = 100) Steady CNY, but yen goes down and down


100

120

140

160

Apr11

Jun11

Aug11

Oct11

Dec11

Feb12

Apr12

Jun12

Aug12

Oct12

Dec12

Feb13

Apr13

Japan China

Market outlook



Baosteel campaign continues Weakness in coil prices in the Chinese domestic market has seen price setting by the leading mills diverge. Baoshan Iron & Steel raised HR coil prices by CNY150/tonne ($24/tonne) for April, Wuhan Iron and Steel (Wisco) rolled over March prices and Anshan Iron & Steel lowered prices by CNY300/tonne ($48/tonne). Since January Baoshan has added CNY690/tonne ($110/tonne) to its HR coil prices but has raised tinplate prices by only half that amount. This squeezes the margins of re-rolling mills which are dependent on buying in merchant HR coil to produce so-called “false tinplate”, lower quality material that undercuts first quality tinplate at home and in export markets. These smaller rivals cannot hope to restore their margins by achieving higher prices for tinplate than Baoshan, the leading supplier.

The second quarter is the start of the busiest time of the year for tinplate lines in China. Baoshan’s books are full, and lead times lengthening. It could expect its customers to accept price increases for May, but instead Baoshan is rolling April prices over, maintaining the squeeze on re-rollers for another month. It has been facing higher input costs itself, so is expected to try for higher prices in June, but this might not bring any relief for the re-rollers, since Baoshan could choose to maintain the narrow mark-up between HR coil and tinplate.

Japanese hopes for higher pricesLow value Chinese producers do not compete directly with high value tinplate producers of Japan, but they have made inroads into the markets of non-integrated tinplate producers in south-east Asia. These use domestically produced tin and imported black plate or “loam plate”, the double-reduced cold-rolled substrate used in tinning mills. They lack the scale and steelmaker background to produce this specialised product, and buy supplies mostly from Japan.

If Baoshan’s squeeze on low-cost producers - combined with the steady rise in the CNY exchange rate at a time when the yen is plunging, as the chart shows - reduces their impact on export markets there is a good chance of substantial price rise.

2010 2011 2012 Q1 12 Q2 12 Q3 12 Q4 12 Jun 12 Jul 12 Aug 12 Sep 12 Oct 12 Nov 12 Dec 12 Jan 13m-o-m %


USATinplate Production 1,845 1,533 1,484 359 407 392 326 139 122 154 116 122 106 98 101 3% 4%

Apparent consumption 2,268 1,684 1,822 420 458 453 492 161 138 180 135 232 139 120 130 9% 5%

Tin-free Production 474 401 374 91 96 102 86 29 33 39 29 33 28 25 26 3% -16%

Apparent consumption 588 514 489 120 133 120 116 43 41 46 33 45 35 36 36 -1% -11%

CanadaTinmill Production 244 215 239 63 64 59 52 23 21 21 17 22 17 13 18 39% -15%

Apparent consumption 59 28 22 2 7 5 8 2 1 3 1 3 2 3 3- -201% -295%

South KoreaTinmill Production 812 787 800 188 209 200 204 70 69 66 65 68 68 68 69 2% 12%

Apparent consumption 372 375 344 76 100 81 87 36 25 24 32 32 27 29 24 -16% -8%

TaiwanTinplate Production 212 201 210 51 55 52 52 19 17 18 17 19 17 16 16 0% -5%

Apparent consumption 115 96 106 26 28 26 26 11 7 13 6 10 9 7 7 9% -2%

Tin-free Production 63 74 55 16 16 11 13 4 4 4 3 4 4 5 7 29% 92%

Apparent consumption 35 43 25 8 8 4 6 2 1 2 1 1 2 3 4 65% 350%

JapanTinplate Production 1,055 977 938 234 248 236 221 78 82 77 77 79 72 69 84 21% -2%


Tin-free Production 849 819 746 180 182 193 191 62 59 68 66 70 54 67 65 -3% 5%

Apparent consumption 769 743 682 162 165 177 177 57 54 62 61 65 50 62 60 -3% 5%

FranceTin mill Production 772 604 498 103 139 144 112 46 49 48 47 48 47 17 24 39% -2%


GermanyTin mill Exports 1,054 893 979 245 256 263 216 68 99 85 79 89 74 53 76 44% 54%

Imports 197 213 205 45 56 55 50 21 22 19 14 18 20 12 16 28% 71%

Net exports 856 680 774 200 200 209 166 48 77 66 65 71 54 41 60 49% 50%

UKTin mill Production 467 407 413 105 118 91 99 42 35 22 34 37 34 28 28 0% -9%


ItalyTin mill Exports 54 65 64 21 18 13 13 9 6 7 7 4 5 6 4 -26% -34%

Imports 651 674 606 108 185 172 141 57 71 57 44 55 53 33 47 44% 106%

Net exports -597 -609 -542 -88 -167 -160 -128 48- 65- 50- 37- 50- 48- 27- 43-

NetherlandsTin mill Production 791 722 755 178 180 204 193 52 70 67 67 65 69 59 61 3% 1%


SpainTin mill Production 593 539 574 124 151 154 145 50 54 49 51 52 50 43 61 41% 109%

Apparent consumption 716 649 720 161 195 210 154 68 74 77 59 79 42 33 62 87% 27%Sources: AISI, StatsCanada, JISF, KOSA, TSIIA, ISSB, IBS. % y-o-y change means change between latest month's data and previous year the same month. % m-o-m change means between latest month data compared to the previous month.

Major nations' tin mill statistics ('000 tonnes)

12 Galvanized Steel and Tinplate Market Tracker April 2013 September 2011 Coated Steels Market Tracker 12 Galvain

zed Steel and Tin

plate Market Tracker / Issue 171 / 18 April 2013

Published monthly by Metal Bulletin LtdISSN 1466-8114Produced by: Alistair Ramsay, Robert Cartman and Laima Alavociute [email protected]

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Asian end-use demand indicators Q3 12 Q4 12 Sep 12 Oct 12 Nov 12 Dec 12 Jan 13% Chg Q-o-Q

% Chg Y-o-Y

ChinaIndustrial Production: Automobiles 4,876,000 5,443,000 1,804,000 1,677,000 1,849,000 1,917,000 2,055,000 11.6% 47.7%Floor Space under Construction: ytd 26,473,778 30,507,199 9,321,080 9,760,372 10,147,931 10,598,896 5,953,546 15.2% 15.3%Industrial Production: Household Washing Machines 18,033,000 18,624,000 7,418,000 6,158,000 6,244,000 6,222,000 5,949,000 3.3% 47.6%

JapanJP: Industrial Production Index (IMF)* 92 90 91 92 90 88 82 -1.8% -5.1%IPI: MG: General Purpose Machinery Industry* 93.3 88.8 97 91 88 88 81 -4.9% -6.2%IPI: Mfg: Transportation Equipment (TE)* 93.4 88.5 91 93 89 83 87 -5.3% -8.8%Building Construction Started Sq M th 34799.6 35157.3 11,674 12,195 11,472 11,490 10,326 1.0% 4.4%

IndiaIndustrial Production Index: Manufacturing** -0.7 3.2 1- 4 3- 8 1 Motor Vehicle Production: Total 4,983,896 5,173,610 1,672,797 1,829,490 1,646,495 1,697,625 1,840,858 3.8% 8.0%

Source: Metal Bulletin Research, CEIC, *2005=100, **% y-o-y

US end-use demand indicators

Q1 11Q1 12 Q2 12 Q3 12 Q4 12 Aug 12 Sep 12 Oct 12 Nov 12 Dec 12 Jan 13 Feb 13

% Chg Q-o-Q

% Chg Y-o-Y

Construction Construction Value Put in Place ($m) 173.6 214.3 238.9 227.7 81.457 79.357 81.438 76.737 69.520 60.132 59.970 -5% 7%

AutomotiveAutomobile: Domestic Production ('000 units) 1,063.8 1,097.7 1,024.5 1,050.1 402.0 342.3 421.9 360.6 267.6 384.8 373.3 2% 5%Automobile Sales: sa ('000 units) 1288.2 1260.9 1314.8 1379.1 446 448 436 473 470 474 462 5% 4%Automobile Inventories ('000 units) 2665.7 2557.0 2556.1 3207.3 845 888 1,026 1,112 1,070 1,119 1,134 25% 26%Automobile Sales: Inventories to Sales Ratio; sa 2.0 2.3 2.4 2.3 2.40 2.37 2.45 2.27 2.29 2.27 2.35 -4% 20%

ManufacturingIndustrial Production Index (IMF)* 101.0 102.0 103.2 102.1 104.1 103.3 101.9 102.0 102.5 103.2 103.8 -1% 3%Durable Goods Industries Shipments 660,261 672,681 674,923 679,862 222,397 223,480 223,498 227,497 228,867 227,351 229,536 1% 5%Durable Goods Inventories (M units) 1,083,537 1,101,668 1,119,662 1,113,108 375,663 371,034 374,411 375,163 363,534 373,772 378,690 -1% 4%

Source: Metal Bulletin Research, CEIC * 2005 =100

European end-use demand indicators Q3 12 Q4 12 Apr 12 May 12 Jun 12 Jul 12 Aug 12 Sep 12 Oct 12 Nov 12 Dec 12% Chg Q-o-Q

% Chg Y-o-Y

Construction Construction Production Index: sa: EU 27* 95 94 96.02 95.39 95.10 95.15 95.72 93.51 94.35 93.70 93.14 -1.1% -6.3%Construction Production Index: sa: EU 15 (EU)* 95 94 95.40 94.66 94.81 94.92 95.51 93.28 94.17 93.33 93.11 -1.1% -5.5%Construction Confidence Indicator (CCI): sa: EU 27 -32.10 -34.40 -29.50 -31.50 -30.10 -30.80 -33.50 -32.00 -34.60 -34.70 -33.90 7.2% 8.7%

New Registered Motor Vehicle New Registered: Total: EU 27 3,114,683 3,199,821 1,163,077 1,254,187 1,358,521 1,070,085 791,550 1,253,048 1,205,484 1,067,342 926,995 7.5% -17.3%Motor Vehicle New Registered: France 473,169 576,044 204,822 201,754 252,021 183,606 118,336 171,227 201,834 179,580 194,630 5.6% -15.9%Motor Vehicle New Registered: Germany 799,269 802,736 300,229 316,625 325,934 274,736 250,313 274,220 287,047 288,058 227,631 11.0% -17.3%Motor Vehicle New Registered: Italy 304,609 446,938 143,027 160,379 140,855 120,867 63,570 120,172 228,731 118,231 99,976 -0.8% -21.7%Motor Vehicle New Registered: Spain 168,810 166,611 63,691 80,635 81,680 73,259 54,226 41,325 53,151 55,657 57,803 -1.5% -24.4%

ManufacturingIPI: sa: EU 27: Manufacturing (Mfg)* 102.9 100.9 102.17 103.18 102.17 103.36 103.76 101.69 101.05 100.32 101.29 -2.0% -2.4%

Source: Metal Bulletin Research, CEIC *2010=100

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