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Transcript of CoastalZone.com The Use of Ecological Risk Assessments in a Watershed Level Context Thorne E. Abbott...
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The Use ofThe Use of Ecological Risk Assessments Ecological Risk Assessments
in ain a
Watershed Level ContextWatershed Level Context
Thorne E. Abbott
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Man & NatureMan & Nature
Population Growth & Urbanization
Environmental Engineering
POTW’s
Natures Assimilative Capacity Surpassed
Speed up natural cleansing processes
Wastewater Treatment
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Pollution ControlPollution Control
Clean Water Act 1972
$67 billion in Infrastructure
NPDES permits
Fishable, Swimable, Drinkable Waters
Secondary treatment for cities
Control effluent quality & quantity and model stream impacts
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25 Year Reality Check25 Year Reality Check
Clean Water Action Plan of 1997
“Non-Attainment” of one or more goals in 35% of waterways
50% of waterways greatly improved
Why … after investing $67 billion...???
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Why were goals not attained…?Why were goals not attained…?Factors not considered in modeling
and decision-making: hydrologic boundaries agricultural runoff urban runoff & ecological effects variance in model parameters sources of uncertainty deterministic models
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Indian River LagoonIndian River Lagoon
Sources of Nitrogen Loading 9% Road drainage 7% Lawns 13% Cattle 31% Agricultural 31% Human Wastewater Effluent
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Watershed ApproachWatershed Approach
Defines hydrologic boundaries
Includes point and non-point source pollution
Place-based & local Includes stakeholders Prioritizes and targets
specific problems
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Ecological Risk AssessmentEcological Risk Assessment
Problem Formation Analysis
– Ecological Receptors– Exposure Profiles
Risk Characterization
Management options
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Exposure & Effects ProfilesExposure & Effects Profiles
Uses existing local data and information sources
Characterizes probable exposure pathways
Characterizes individuals and species affected
Defines variance in model parameters
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Multiple StressorsMultiple Stressors
Combine multiple profiles Define probable exposure
and ecological effects Define levels of risk to
populations and communities
Identify sources of uncertainty
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Total Ecosystem RiskTotal Ecosystem Risk Synthesize multiple
stressors & sensitive ecological receptors
Define probable contribution of each stressor to ecological dysfunction
Manage stressors in light of overall ecosystem health
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Watershed Level Risk AssessmentWatershed Level Risk Assessment
Watershed Approach Ecological Risk Assessment
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WLRA incorporates ...WLRA incorporates ... hydrologic boundaries agricultural runoff urban runoff & ecological effects sources of uncertainty variance in model parameters probabilistic .vs. deterministic
model
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But ….But ….
Time … ???Time … ???
ExpenseExpense … ???… ???
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Multi-Tiered ProcessMulti-Tiered Process
Benefit from the explicit use of uncertainty
Tailored to the site Place-based &
resource-based Minimize time, effort,
and data acquisition costs
Problem Formation
RiskCharacterization
ExposureAssessment
Ecological EffectsCharacterization
EcologicalReceptor
Characterization
SourceCharacterization
RiskManagement
Significant Uncertainty Regarding Risks?
No Further Risk Assessment
NextTier
Multi-Tiered RiskAssessment Process
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ExampleExample
Stressor Zinc Chloride Habitat
Disturbance Channelization
Source Industrial Point Source Non-Point source Low Flows in summer
months Shipping &
Transportation
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Tier 1 - Tier 1 - ZincZincQuotient MethodologyQuotient Methodology
Known point source Conservative Well characterized
exposure & effect Established
certainty from sampling
Simple, deterministic methodology
Table 1: TIERED MET HODOLOG Y
Zinc Chloride HabitatDisturbance
HabitatDisturbance
Tier 1 2 3 3
1 Source Industry Natural Low Flows Channelization
1 Impact Not adverse Yes Unknown Unknown
1 QuotientMethod EEC / COC = Q Unknown n/a n/a
1 Data 0.002 / 10.0 <1.00
Unknown n/a n/a
1 Species Affected 5% Unknown Unknown Unknown
1 Certainty 100%[assumed]
Unknown Unknown Unknown
Table 1: TIERED MET HODOLOG Y
Zinc Chloride HabitatDisturbance
HabitatDisturbance
Tier 1 2 3 3
1 Source Industry Natural Low Flows Channelization
1 Impact Not adverse Yes Unknown Unknown
1 QuotientMethod EEC / COC = Q Unknown n/a n/a
1 Data 0.002 / 10.0 <1.00
Unknown n/a n/a
1 Species Affected 5% Unknown Unknown Unknown
1 Certainty 100%[assumed]
Unknown Unknown Unknown
Zinc...
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Tier 2 - Tier 2 - ChlorideChloridePlace-based MethodologyPlace-based Methodology
Non-point source Place-based Characterize local exposure
and effects Use existing data sets to
determine probable stressor pathways
Reduces uncertainties in analysis
Focus future monitoring efforts
Table 1: TIERED MET HODOLOG Y
Zinc Chloride HabitatDisturbance
HabitatDisturbance
Tier 1 2 3 3
1 Source Industry Natural Low Flows Channelization
1 Impact Not adverse Yes Unknown Unknown
1 QuotientMethod EEC / COC = Q Unknown n/a n/a
1 Data 0.002 / 10.0 <1.00
Unknown n/a n/a
1 Species Affected 5% Unknown Unknown Unknown
1 Certainty 100%[assumed]
Unknown Unknown Unknown
2 Eco.Risk Criteria Method determined ERC / COC = Q Unknown Unknown
2 EPA BASINS Data determined 0.003 / 15.0 <1.00
Unknown Unknown
2 Species Affected determined 25% Unknown Unknown
2 Certainty determined 95% Unknown Unknown
Table 1: TIERED MET HODOLOG Y
Zinc Chloride HabitatDisturbance
HabitatDisturbance
Tier 1 2 3 3
1 Source Industry Natural Low Flows Channelization
1 Impact Not adverse Yes Unknown Unknown
1 QuotientMethod EEC / COC = Q Unknown n/a n/a
1 Data 0.002 / 10.0 <1.00
Unknown n/a n/a
1 Species Affected 5% Unknown Unknown Unknown
1 Certainty 100%[assumed]
Unknown Unknown Unknown
2 Eco.Risk Criteria Method determined ERC / COC = Q Unknown Unknown
2 EPA BASINS Data determined 0.003 / 15.0 <1.00
Unknown Unknown
2 Species Affected determined 25% Unknown Unknown
2 Certainty determined 95% Unknown Unknown
Chloride...
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Tier 3 - Tier 3 - Low flows & ChannelizationLow flows & Channelization Site-specific MethodologySite-specific Methodology
Targeted monitoring Determine what
ecosystem functions are altered by stressors
Define specific species and communities at risk
Local dynamics and interactions understood more clearly
Table 1: TIERED MET HODOLOG Y
Zinc Chloride HabitatDisturbance
HabitatDisturbance
Tier 1 2 3 3
1 Source Industry Natural Low Flows Channelization
1 Impact Not adverse Yes Unknown Unknown
1 QuotientMethod EEC / COC = Q Unknown n/a n/a
1 Data 0.002 / 10.0 <1.00
Unknown n/a n/a
1 Species Affected 5% Unknown Unknown Unknown
1 Certainty 100%[assumed]
Unknown Unknown Unknown
2 Eco.Risk Criteria Method determined ERC / COC = Q Unknown Unknown
2 EPA BASINS Data determined 0.003 / 15.0 <1.00
Unknown Unknown
2 Species Affected determined 25% Unknown Unknown
2 Certainty determined 95% Unknown Unknown
3 Site Testing determined determined Dams & Weirs Dredging
3 New Data determined determined Deleteriouseffects
Deleteriouseffects
3 Species Affected determined determined 40% 20%
3 Certainty determined determined 85% 90%
Table 1: TIERED MET HODOLOG Y
Zinc Chloride HabitatDisturbance
HabitatDisturbance
Tier 1 2 3 3
1 Source Industry Natural Low Flows Channelization
1 Impact Not adverse Yes Unknown Unknown
1 QuotientMethod EEC / COC = Q Unknown n/a n/a
1 Data 0.002 / 10.0 <1.00
Unknown n/a n/a
1 Species Affected 5% Unknown Unknown Unknown
1 Certainty 100%[assumed]
Unknown Unknown Unknown
2 Eco.Risk Criteria Method determined ERC / COC = Q Unknown Unknown
2 EPA BASINS Data determined 0.003 / 15.0 <1.00
Unknown Unknown
2 Species Affected determined 25% Unknown Unknown
2 Certainty determined 95% Unknown Unknown
3 Site Testing determined determined Dams & Weirs Dredging
3 New Data determined determined Deleteriouseffects
Deleteriouseffects
3 Species Affected determined determined 40% 20%
3 Certainty determined determined 85% 90%
Flows & Channel
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Tier 3 Tier 3 Site-specific MethodologySite-specific Methodology
Sample locally sensitive ecological receptors Target local stessor pathways for monitoring Implement area-specific management plans Consider alternative scenarios to minimize
stressor / receptor response – increase flows c/o dam releases– alter dredging times c/o receptor sensitivity
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WLRA: Total Ecosystem AssessmentWLRA: Total Ecosystem Assessment Provides an overall
picture of ecosystem health
Relates stressor & receptor relationships to ecological dysfunction
Offers realistic options to improve ecosystem health
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WLRA: SummaryWLRA: Summary Provides potential alternatives to improve
total ecological health Offers flexibility in planning, prioritizing
and monitoring Creates place-based, resource-oriented,
stakeholder driven solutions Ensures more realistic perspectives and
outcomes for ecosystem improvement
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AcknowledgmentsAcknowledgments
The Coastal Society University of Maryland,
– Marine Environmental Estuarine Science Program– Dr. Bob Gardner (Appalachian Environmental Labs)– Dr. Haasch (Chesapeake Bay Labs)– Dr. Karen Prestegaard (College Park)
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Thank You !Thank You !
Thorne Abbott
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