Introduction to monte-carlo analysis for software development - Troy Magennis (Focused Objective)
Coaching in a data-driven world - Agile in the City...Coaching in a data-driven world Descriptive...
Transcript of Coaching in a data-driven world - Agile in the City...Coaching in a data-driven world Descriptive...
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Coaching in a data-driven world
Nicolas Brown
@nbrown02
#agilecitylon
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TLDR;Stop using metrics as targets.
Use metrics as a coaching aid to inform, to have safe conversations,
open questions and model curiosity.
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Google Ngram
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The growth in metric obsession
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The growth in metric obsession
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Which of the following best describes decision-making in your organisation?
8%Rarely data-driven
Somewhat data-driven
Highly data-driven
53%
39%
PwC's Global Data and Analytics Survey: Big Decisions TM. Base: 2,106 senior executives
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“When a measure becomes a target, it ceases to be a good measure”
- Charles Goodhart
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Commissioner Ervin Burrell
Deputy Commissioner Bill Rawls
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Police Majors & Lieutenants
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No more murders.You will reduce the felony rate by 5% or
more or….let no man come
back alive
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Anyone of you who can’t bring in the numbers we need will be replaced by
someone who can
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Major Bunny Colvin
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“Hamsterdam”
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We’ve had a 14% dropin felony rate over the
last 4 weeks
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Ah yes, now I am happy. You won’t mind if I
check your numbers will you?
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The tyranny of metrics
● Penalizing hospitals based on the percentage of patients who fail to survive for thirty days beyond surgeryPatients sometimes kept alive for thirty-one days, so that their mortality is not reflect in the hospitals metrics
● The National Health Service (NHS) decided that a major problem was that people were having to wait too long to be admitted to emergency wards, they declared that hospitals would be evaluated based on to what extent patients were admitted within four hoursSome hospitals responded by keeping incoming patients in queues of ambulances outside the hospital doors, until staff were confident that the patient could be seen within the allotted four hours of being admitted
● No Child Left Behind (NCLB) legislation measured students grade 3-8 each year in math, reading and science. Aiming to bring all students to academic proficiency whilst penalties and sanctions for schools when students did not progressTeachers diverted class time to teaching the subjects tested, neglecting other subjects as well as reclassifying weaker students as disabled (thus removing from the assessment pool), altering results, reducing test difficulty or lowering the grades needed to pass them
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The tyranny of velocity?
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The tyranny of velocity?
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The tyranny of velocity?
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The tyranny of velocity?
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Police Majors & LieutenantsAgile Project Managers/ Scrum Masters
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We’ve got to maximise our
points!
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You asked to improve velocity
and I have delivered.
We are now agile.
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We are so friggin agile...
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So long as I have increased velocity, none
of this will matter
HamsterdamTechnical Debt
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Two-thirds of the population are visual-spatial learners
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Agile experience in relation to hair
Date
2017 2018201620152014
?
Vo
lum
e(h
air
)
?
2013
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Our Agile roots...
Transparency
Inspection
Adaptation
Scrum
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Data-based coaching uses data visualisation as a basis for safe conversations and open questions, as well as facilitating more informed, transparent decision making whilst staying true to our Agile roots...
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Coaching in a data-driven world
Descriptivereporting
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WIP Items Per Week
What happened?
What is happening?
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Scatter Plot
What happened?
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Scatter Plot
What is happening?
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Data-based retrospectives
Let’s take anything above 10 days -what happened?
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Scatter Plot Retrospectives
Let’s take anything above 10 days -what happened?
Data not available (improve DoRcheck)
- Better BDD needed- Work as a team when it’s not working
- Too long for PO feedback (20 days!)- Better DoR check needed as was not met
PO Feedback
Data not available(improve DoR check)
Rework due to tech debt
- Better DoR check needed- Flowed quickly once sat with the SME
Delayed due to lack of clarity on deployment
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Scatter Plot Retrospectives
What is happening?
Process Policies
Process Policies Process Policies
Continuous attention to technical excellence
Process Policies
Process Policies
Feedback loops
Feedback loops
Feedback loopsFeedback loops
Process Policies
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Net Flow per Week
Do we have flow?Stop starting,
start finishing?
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Coaching in a data-driven world
Descriptivereporting
QuestionsWhat happened?
What is happening?
Visuals
Diagnosticdiscover & explore
- WIP Items per Week- Scatter Plot- Net flow per week- Throughput History Trend
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Stuck Work
Where is the problem?
What are the trends?
Why is it happening?
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Estimate Correlation
What happened?
#NoEstimates?
Our sprints are 21 days - why could
this be happening?
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The best I’ve seen so far!
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Coaching in a data-driven world
Descriptivereporting
Questions
Where is the problem?Why is it happening?What are the trends?
What happened?What is happening?
Visuals
Diagnosticdiscover & explore
Predictiveforecast
- WIP Items per Week- Scatter Plot- Net flow per week- Throughput History Trend
- Stuck Work- Flow Efficiency- Estimate Correlation- Cumulative Flow (CFD)
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Landing Zone (Burn-up)
What is likely to happen?
What options are there?
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Potentially Deliverable Scope (PDS)
What options are
there?
What is likely to happen?
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Throughput Forecaster
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Throughput Forecaster
16 weeks later...
1 story out!
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Coaching in a data-driven world
Descriptivereporting
Questions
Where is the problem?Why is it happening?What are the trends?
What happened?What is happening?
Visuals
Diagnosticdiscover & explore
Predictiveforecast
Prescriptiveanticipative
What is likely to happen?
What options are there?
- WIP Items per Week- Scatter Plot- Net flow per week- Throughput History Trend
- Stuck Work- Flow Efficiency- Estimate Correlation- Cumulative Flow (CFD)
- PDS- Landing Zone (Burn-up)- Throughput Forecaster- Monte Carlo: How Many?
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WIP by Person
What should I do?
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Stale Work
What is the next best action?
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“When a measure becomes a target, it ceases to be a good measure”
- Charles Goodhart
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Goodhart’s law...
“I’m working on that card but didn’t want to move it forward on the board because it would mean we go over our WIP limit”
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“The ostrich problem includes situations in which people receive relevant information but intentionally fail to evaluate the implications for their goal progress - in other words, they
reject the information.” - Dr Thomas Webb
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The Ostrich Problem...
“Hmm….let’s see how we get on for the next 4 weeks before we show the data of what we can deliver to the business”
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Coaching in a data-driven world
Descriptivereporting
Questions
Where is the problem?Why is it happening?What are the trends?
What happened?What is happening?
Visuals
What should I do?What is the next best
action?
Diagnosticdiscover & explore
Predictiveforecast
Prescriptiveanticipative
- WIP Items per Week- Scatter Plot- Net flow per week- Throughput History Trend
- Stuck Work- Flow Efficiency- Estimate Correlation- Cumulative Flow (CFD)
- Stale Work- WIP by Person- Aging Work In Progress- Requirements Readiness
- PDS- Landing Zone (Burn-up)- Throughput Forecaster- Monte Carlo: How Many?
What is likely to happen?
What options are there?
![Page 66: Coaching in a data-driven world - Agile in the City...Coaching in a data-driven world Descriptive reporting Questions Where is the problem? Why is it happening? ... Troy Magennis -](https://reader033.fdocuments.us/reader033/viewer/2022053003/5f07ce5a7e708231d41ed702/html5/thumbnails/66.jpg)
Coaching in a data-driven world
Descriptivereporting
QuestionsWhat happened?
What is happening?
Visuals
Diagnosticdiscover & explore
Predictiveforecast
Prescriptiveanticipative
- WIP Items per Week- Scatter Plot- Net flow per week- Throughput History Trend
Where can you get it? - Focused Objective
![Page 67: Coaching in a data-driven world - Agile in the City...Coaching in a data-driven world Descriptive reporting Questions Where is the problem? Why is it happening? ... Troy Magennis -](https://reader033.fdocuments.us/reader033/viewer/2022053003/5f07ce5a7e708231d41ed702/html5/thumbnails/67.jpg)
Coaching in a data-driven world
Descriptivereporting
QuestionsWhat happened?
What is happening?
Visuals
Diagnosticdiscover & explore
Predictiveforecast
Prescriptiveanticipative
- WIP Items per Week- Scatter Plot- Net flow per week- Throughput History Trend
Where can you get it? - SenseAdapt
![Page 68: Coaching in a data-driven world - Agile in the City...Coaching in a data-driven world Descriptive reporting Questions Where is the problem? Why is it happening? ... Troy Magennis -](https://reader033.fdocuments.us/reader033/viewer/2022053003/5f07ce5a7e708231d41ed702/html5/thumbnails/68.jpg)
Coaching in a data-driven world
Descriptivereporting
QuestionsWhat happened?
What is happening?
Visuals
Diagnosticdiscover & explore
Predictiveforecast
Prescriptiveanticipative
- WIP Items per Week- Scatter Plot- Net flow per week- Throughput History Trend
Where can you get it? - Focused Objective
![Page 69: Coaching in a data-driven world - Agile in the City...Coaching in a data-driven world Descriptive reporting Questions Where is the problem? Why is it happening? ... Troy Magennis -](https://reader033.fdocuments.us/reader033/viewer/2022053003/5f07ce5a7e708231d41ed702/html5/thumbnails/69.jpg)
Coaching in a data-driven world
Descriptivereporting
QuestionsWhat happened?
What is happening?
Visuals
Diagnosticdiscover & explore
Predictiveforecast
Prescriptiveanticipative
- WIP Items per Week- Scatter Plot- Net flow per week- Throughput History Trend
Where can you get it? - Focused Objective
![Page 70: Coaching in a data-driven world - Agile in the City...Coaching in a data-driven world Descriptive reporting Questions Where is the problem? Why is it happening? ... Troy Magennis -](https://reader033.fdocuments.us/reader033/viewer/2022053003/5f07ce5a7e708231d41ed702/html5/thumbnails/70.jpg)
Coaching in a data-driven world
Questions
Where is the problem?Why is it happening?What are the trends?
Visuals
Diagnosticdiscover & explore
Predictiveforecast
Prescriptiveanticipative
- Stuck Work- Flow Efficiency- Estimate Correlation- Cumulative Flow (CFD)
Descriptivereporting
Where can you get it? - SenseAdapt
![Page 71: Coaching in a data-driven world - Agile in the City...Coaching in a data-driven world Descriptive reporting Questions Where is the problem? Why is it happening? ... Troy Magennis -](https://reader033.fdocuments.us/reader033/viewer/2022053003/5f07ce5a7e708231d41ed702/html5/thumbnails/71.jpg)
Coaching in a data-driven world
Questions
Where is the problem?Why is it happening?What are the trends?
Visuals
Diagnosticdiscover & explore
Predictiveforecast
Prescriptiveanticipative
- Stuck Work- Flow Efficiency- Estimate Correlation- Cumulative Flow (CFD)
Descriptivereporting
Where can you get it? - Actionable Agile
![Page 72: Coaching in a data-driven world - Agile in the City...Coaching in a data-driven world Descriptive reporting Questions Where is the problem? Why is it happening? ... Troy Magennis -](https://reader033.fdocuments.us/reader033/viewer/2022053003/5f07ce5a7e708231d41ed702/html5/thumbnails/72.jpg)
Coaching in a data-driven world
Questions
Where is the problem?Why is it happening?What are the trends?
Visuals
Diagnosticdiscover & explore
Predictiveforecast
Prescriptiveanticipative
- Stuck Work- Flow Efficiency- Estimate Correlation- Cumulative Flow (CFD)
Descriptivereporting
Where can you get it? - SenseAdapt
![Page 73: Coaching in a data-driven world - Agile in the City...Coaching in a data-driven world Descriptive reporting Questions Where is the problem? Why is it happening? ... Troy Magennis -](https://reader033.fdocuments.us/reader033/viewer/2022053003/5f07ce5a7e708231d41ed702/html5/thumbnails/73.jpg)
Coaching in a data-driven world
Questions
Where is the problem?Why is it happening?What are the trends?
Visuals
Diagnosticdiscover & explore
Predictiveforecast
Prescriptiveanticipative
- Stuck Work- Flow Efficiency- Estimate Correlation- Cumulative Flow (CFD)
Descriptivereporting
Where can you get it? - Actionable Agile
![Page 74: Coaching in a data-driven world - Agile in the City...Coaching in a data-driven world Descriptive reporting Questions Where is the problem? Why is it happening? ... Troy Magennis -](https://reader033.fdocuments.us/reader033/viewer/2022053003/5f07ce5a7e708231d41ed702/html5/thumbnails/74.jpg)
Coaching in a data-driven world
Questions
Visuals
Predictiveforecast
Prescriptiveanticipative
Descriptivereporting
Diagnosticdiscover & explore
- PDS- Landing Zone (Burn-up)- Throughput Forecaster- Monte Carlo: How Many?
What is likely to happen?
What options are there?
Where can you get it? - SenseAdapt
![Page 75: Coaching in a data-driven world - Agile in the City...Coaching in a data-driven world Descriptive reporting Questions Where is the problem? Why is it happening? ... Troy Magennis -](https://reader033.fdocuments.us/reader033/viewer/2022053003/5f07ce5a7e708231d41ed702/html5/thumbnails/75.jpg)
Coaching in a data-driven world
Questions
Visuals
Predictiveforecast
Prescriptiveanticipative
Descriptivereporting
Diagnosticdiscover & explore
- PDS- Landing Zone (Burn-up)- Throughput Forecaster- Monte Carlo: How Many?
What is likely to happen?
What options are there?
Where can you get it? - SenseAdapt
![Page 76: Coaching in a data-driven world - Agile in the City...Coaching in a data-driven world Descriptive reporting Questions Where is the problem? Why is it happening? ... Troy Magennis -](https://reader033.fdocuments.us/reader033/viewer/2022053003/5f07ce5a7e708231d41ed702/html5/thumbnails/76.jpg)
Coaching in a data-driven world
Questions
Visuals
Predictiveforecast
Prescriptiveanticipative
Descriptivereporting
Diagnosticdiscover & explore
- PDS- Landing Zone (Burn-up)- Throughput Forecaster- Monte Carlo: How Many?
What is likely to happen?
What options are there?
Where can you get it? - Focused Objective
![Page 77: Coaching in a data-driven world - Agile in the City...Coaching in a data-driven world Descriptive reporting Questions Where is the problem? Why is it happening? ... Troy Magennis -](https://reader033.fdocuments.us/reader033/viewer/2022053003/5f07ce5a7e708231d41ed702/html5/thumbnails/77.jpg)
Coaching in a data-driven world
Questions
Visuals
Predictiveforecast
Prescriptiveanticipative
Descriptivereporting
Diagnosticdiscover & explore
- PDS- Landing Zone (Burn-up)- Throughput Forecaster- Monte Carlo: How Many?
What is likely to happen?
What options are there?
Where can you get it? - Actionable Agile
![Page 78: Coaching in a data-driven world - Agile in the City...Coaching in a data-driven world Descriptive reporting Questions Where is the problem? Why is it happening? ... Troy Magennis -](https://reader033.fdocuments.us/reader033/viewer/2022053003/5f07ce5a7e708231d41ed702/html5/thumbnails/78.jpg)
Coaching in a data-driven world
Descriptivereporting
Questions
Visuals
Diagnosticdiscover & explore
Predictiveforecast
Prescriptiveanticipative
What should I do?What is the next best
action?
- Stale Work- WIP by Person- Aging Work In Progress- Requirements Readiness
Where can you get it? - SenseAdapt
![Page 79: Coaching in a data-driven world - Agile in the City...Coaching in a data-driven world Descriptive reporting Questions Where is the problem? Why is it happening? ... Troy Magennis -](https://reader033.fdocuments.us/reader033/viewer/2022053003/5f07ce5a7e708231d41ed702/html5/thumbnails/79.jpg)
Coaching in a data-driven world
Descriptivereporting
Questions
Visuals
Diagnosticdiscover & explore
Predictiveforecast
Prescriptiveanticipative
What should I do?What is the next best
action?
- Stale Work- WIP by Person- Aging Work In Progress- Requirements Readiness
Where can you get it? - SenseAdapt
![Page 80: Coaching in a data-driven world - Agile in the City...Coaching in a data-driven world Descriptive reporting Questions Where is the problem? Why is it happening? ... Troy Magennis -](https://reader033.fdocuments.us/reader033/viewer/2022053003/5f07ce5a7e708231d41ed702/html5/thumbnails/80.jpg)
Coaching in a data-driven world
Descriptivereporting
Questions
Visuals
Diagnosticdiscover & explore
Predictiveforecast
Prescriptiveanticipative
What should I do?What is the next best
action?
- Stale Work- WIP by Person- Aging Work In Progress- Requirements Readiness
Where can you get it? - Actionable Agile
![Page 81: Coaching in a data-driven world - Agile in the City...Coaching in a data-driven world Descriptive reporting Questions Where is the problem? Why is it happening? ... Troy Magennis -](https://reader033.fdocuments.us/reader033/viewer/2022053003/5f07ce5a7e708231d41ed702/html5/thumbnails/81.jpg)
Coaching in a data-driven world
Descriptivereporting
Questions
Visuals
Diagnosticdiscover & explore
Predictiveforecast
Prescriptiveanticipative
What should I do?What is the next best
action?
- Stale Work- WIP by Person- Aging Work In Progress- Requirements Readiness
Where can you get it? - SenseAdapt
![Page 82: Coaching in a data-driven world - Agile in the City...Coaching in a data-driven world Descriptive reporting Questions Where is the problem? Why is it happening? ... Troy Magennis -](https://reader033.fdocuments.us/reader033/viewer/2022053003/5f07ce5a7e708231d41ed702/html5/thumbnails/82.jpg)
Coaching in a data-driven world
Descriptivereporting
Questions
Where is the problem?Why is it happening?What are the trends?
What happened?What is happening?
Visuals
What should I do?What is the next best
action?
Diagnosticdiscover & explore
Predictiveforecast
Prescriptiveanticipative
- WIP Items per Week- Scatter Plot- Net flow per week- Throughput History Trend
- Stuck Work- Flow Efficiency- Estimate Correlation- Cumulative Flow (CFD)
- Stale Work- WIP by Person- Aging Work In Progress- Requirements Readiness
- PDS- Landing Zone (Burn-up)- Throughput Forecaster- Monte Carlo: How Many?
What is likely to happen?
What options are there?
![Page 83: Coaching in a data-driven world - Agile in the City...Coaching in a data-driven world Descriptive reporting Questions Where is the problem? Why is it happening? ... Troy Magennis -](https://reader033.fdocuments.us/reader033/viewer/2022053003/5f07ce5a7e708231d41ed702/html5/thumbnails/83.jpg)
Further reading
● Troy Magennis - Focused Objective - bit.ly/SimResources
● Dan Vacanti - Actionable Agile Metrics for Predictability - tiny.cc/danvac
● Dominica Degrandis - Making Work Visible - tiny.cc/workvisible
● Bazil Arden - Try data-based coaching to counteract cognitive biases - tiny.cc/bazil1
● Bazil Arden - How data-based coaching enhances psychological safety - tiny.cc/bazil2
● Jerry Z. Muller - The Tyranny of Metrics - tiny.cc/tyranny
● Goodhart, Charles (1981). "Problems of Monetary Management: The U.K. Experience"
● Webb, T., Chang, B. and Benn, Y. (2013). ‘The Ostrich Problem’: Motivated Avoidance or Rejection of Information About Goal Progress.
![Page 84: Coaching in a data-driven world - Agile in the City...Coaching in a data-driven world Descriptive reporting Questions Where is the problem? Why is it happening? ... Troy Magennis -](https://reader033.fdocuments.us/reader033/viewer/2022053003/5f07ce5a7e708231d41ed702/html5/thumbnails/84.jpg)
© 2017 PwC. All rights reserved.
PwC refers to the PwC network and/or one or more of its member firms, each of which is a separate legal entity.
Please see www.pwc.com/structure for further details.
Nicolas Brown, Agile [email protected]
@nbrown02
Thank you! Any questions?