CNRFC Operational Flood Forecasting Pete Fickenscher Hydrologist California-Nevada River Forecast...

CNRFCCNRFCOperational Flood Operational Flood

ForecastingForecasting

Pete FickenscherHydrologist

California-Nevada River Forecast CenterNational Weather Service

October 18, 2006

CNRFC OperationsCNRFC Operations 11 Weather offices11 Weather offices 220 Basins modeled220 Basins modeled 87 Flood Forecast 87 Flood Forecast

PointsPoints Partners: Calif. DWRPartners: Calif. DWR Season: Oct. 15 – Apr. 15Season: Oct. 15 – Apr. 15

50 Reservoir Inflow 50 Reservoir Inflow PointsPoints Partners: COE & BURECPartners: COE & BUREC Season: year-roundSeason: year-round

50 Water Supply 50 Water Supply PointsPoints Season: Jan.1 – Jul. 1Season: Jan.1 – Jul. 1

CNRFC StaffCNRFC Staff Hydrologist in Charge (HIC)Hydrologist in Charge (HIC) Development and Operations Hydrologist Development and Operations Hydrologist

(DOH)(DOH) 4 Senior Hydrologists4 Senior Hydrologists 3 Hydrologists3 Hydrologists 1 Senior HAS Forecasters1 Senior HAS Forecasters 2 HAS Forecasters2 HAS Forecasters Administrative AssistantAdministrative Assistant

CNRFC Hydrologic CNRFC Hydrologic ProductsProducts

Flash Flood Guidance

Flood Forecast Guidance

Reservoir Inflow Forecasts

Spring Snow Melt

Forecasts

Water Supply Volume

Short Range … … … … … … Long Range

Flood Forecasting Flood Forecasting OperationsOperations

QPF River Forecasts

Operational Hydrologic Operational Hydrologic ModelsModels

NWSRFS StructureNWSRFS Structure

ESP

Operational Forecast System

Calibration

System

Primary NWSRFS ModelsPrimary NWSRFS Models

Rain-Snow Elevation Rain-Snow Elevation Snow-17Snow-17 Sacramento Soil Moisture Accounting Sacramento Soil Moisture Accounting

(SAC-SMA)(SAC-SMA) Unit Hydrograph Unit Hydrograph Reservoir Models Reservoir Models River Routing Models River Routing Models

NWSRFS ModelsNWSRFS ModelsRain-Snow ElevationRain-Snow Elevation

Snowfall

Rainfall

NWSRFS ModelsNWSRFS ModelsSNOW-17SNOW-17

Conceptual Model of Physical ProcessesConceptual Model of Physical Processes Models a Column of SnowModels a Column of Snow

- Accumulation of Snow Cover- Accumulation of Snow Cover- Surface Energy Exchange- Surface Energy Exchange- Snow Cover ‘Ripening’- Snow Cover ‘Ripening’- Ground Heat Exchange- Ground Heat Exchange- Transmission of Liquid Water- Transmission of Liquid Water

Input = Air Temperature & Precip.Input = Air Temperature & Precip. Output = Rain + Melt, SWE, & Areal Output = Rain + Melt, SWE, & Areal

Extent of SnowExtent of Snow

NWSRFS ModelsNWSRFS ModelsSNOW-17SNOW-17

WY 1986SJ River

NWSRFS ModelsNWSRFS ModelsSAC-SMASAC-SMA

Conceptual Model of the Land Phase Conceptual Model of the Land Phase of the Hydrologic Cycleof the Hydrologic Cycle

Input = Rain + Melt, Input = Rain + Melt, Evapotranspiration, Areal Snow Evapotranspiration, Areal Snow CoverCover

Output = Inflow to the channel Output = Inflow to the channel systemsystem

SAC-SMASAC-SMA

NWSRFS ModelsNWSRFS ModelsSAC-SMASAC-SMA

WY 1986SJ River

NWSRFS ModelsNWSRFS Models

Actual Inflow (FOLC1)

Observed (w): hourly data

Simulated (p): 6-hourly

(with reservoir outflows)

NWSRFS ModelsNWSRFS ModelsRiver Routing ExampleRiver Routing Example

NWSRFS ModelsNWSRFS ModelsReservoir Model Example (Yolo Bypass)Reservoir Model Example (Yolo Bypass)

NWSRFS ModelsNWSRFS ModelsTidal Example (Rio Vista)Tidal Example (Rio Vista)



ESP


Calibration System

Operational Flood Operational Flood ForecastingForecasting

HH

AA

SS

DataDataSystemsSystems

precip/temp/flow

RiverRiverForecastForecastSystemSystem

QPF

ForecastTemp

HydrologistHydrologist

Soil, snow & routing parameters

hydrologicexpertise

River ForecastRiver ForecastGuidanceGuidance

Rain/Snow Elevations

Model Model CalibrationCalibration

Precipitation Data Quality Control

Precipitation Data Quality Control

Gage Catch IssuesGage Catch Issues

Wind Wind SnowSnow Instrumentation (double tipping)Instrumentation (double tipping) Gage location (vegetation, topography…)Gage location (vegetation, topography…) VandalismVandalism

River and Reservoir Data River and Reservoir Data QCQC

Reservoir InflowReservoir InflowOutflow and StorageOutflow and Storage

HourlyHourlyStage & StreamflowStage & Streamflow

AnticipatedAnticipatedReservoir OutflowReservoir Outflow

Automated Automated FilteringFiltering

& & Manual QCManual QC

Real-time ForecastingReal-time Forecasting

Observed Data

Simulated Flow

NF American River

Folsom Inflow



Simulated Flow

Observed Flow Data

San Joaquin River at Newman

Interactive Forecast ProgramRiver Model

IFP Runtime Modifications


HH

AA

SS


precip/temp/flow

RiverRiverForecastForecastSystemSystem

QPF

ForecastTemp


hydrologicexpertise


Rain/Snow Elevations

Graphical Graphical RVFRVF

Soil, snow & routing parameters

Graphical River Forecast Graphical River Forecast GuidanceGuidance

Merced River -

Pohono Bridge

Graphical RVF Graphical RVF AvailabilityAvailability

87 official flood 87 official flood forecast points.forecast points.

Routine updates. Routine updates. twice per day.twice per day. morning/afternoon.morning/afternoon.

Updates during Updates during floods.floods. 8am/2pm/8pm/2am.8am/2pm/8pm/2am. as needed.as needed.

Visible to everyone.Visible to everyone.


BenefitsBenefits

Visual image of meteorological Visual image of meteorological and hydrological situation.and hydrological situation.

More information is presented More information is presented than in a text product.than in a text product.

Longer range guidance for Longer range guidance for emergency managers.emergency managers.

Fo

rec

as

t V

alu

e

Accuracy

Timeliness

ForecastingForecastingBalancing Timeliness and Balancing Timeliness and

AccuracyAccuracy

Forecast Lead Time


Guidance periodGuidance period information has higher information has higher uncertainty.uncertainty.

Timing and amount of Timing and amount of rainfall forecast.rainfall forecast.

Rain/snow level Rain/snow level forecast.forecast.

Unanticipated reservoir Unanticipated reservoir regulation will affect regulation will affect downstream forecasts downstream forecasts and guidance.and guidance.

New Website

Graphical RVF

http://www.cnrfc.noaa.gov/

New Website

Other RiverGuidance

http://www.cnrfc.noaa.gov/

Review of 2006 Flood Review of 2006 Flood EventEvent Folsom Inflow Forecasts

Graphs



ESP


Calibration System

ESP ProductsESP Products

Reservoir Reservoir inflowsinflows

Unregulated Unregulated rivers rivers

Extended Extended forecastsforecasts

AHPS – Relevant ProductsAHPS – Relevant Products

CNRFC CNRFC implemented implemented AHPS locations AHPS locations

Started in Started in WY2005 on 70 WY2005 on 70 pointspoints

ESP Custom Product GenerationESP Custom Product Generation

ESP TracesESP Traces

AHPS – Relevant ProductsAHPS – Relevant ProductsESP Custom Product GenerationESP Custom Product Generation

CNRFC Development CNRFC Development AreasAreas

Flood ForecastingFlood Forecasting Dam Break Support Dam Break Support Flash Flood SupportFlash Flood Support Water Supply ForecastingWater Supply Forecasting Hourly Hydrologic Hourly Hydrologic

ModelingModeling WebsiteWebsite

http://http://www.cnrfc.noaa.govwww.cnrfc.noaa.gov//

California-NevadaCalifornia-NevadaRiver Forecast CenterRiver Forecast Center

Thank You

CNRFC Operational Flood Forecasting Pete Fickenscher Hydrologist California-Nevada River Forecast...

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Transcript of CNRFC Operational Flood Forecasting Pete Fickenscher Hydrologist California-Nevada River Forecast...