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CN5111 Optimization of Chemical Processes

Pang Dong Liang Gerard A0035381L

Do Hoang Hai A0069847J

Ong Ying Chuan A0074798H

Ren Tianang A0039331!

De"ar#$en# o% Che$i&a' and (io$o'e&u'ar )ngineering

Semester 2

Academic Year 2013/2014

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Summary

The vision of a canal throughthe Kra Isthmus in Southern Thailand had been dreamed of for

more than 300 years. Many roosals have been made based on the geograhical and

demograhic characteristics of this area. This ro!ect evaluates the "or#s of some roosed

routes that are being considered at the resent moments$ based on their total costs of

construction and the ossible annual revenues gained from vessels% access. An otimal canal

construction bluerint "ill be roosed based on a suitable dimension of dethand "idththat

allo"s the access of certain tyes of vessels to obtain ma&imum annual rofit. The results

from this ro!ect can be considered as a factor for the consideration of building this canal.

Yet$ it is also "orthto note that other intangible factors suchas social and environmental

effects$ military vulnerability "ill not be considered and these factors "ill be the ones that the

Thai government must underta#e to ma#e a decision on the feasibility of this canal.

Introduction

'ac#ground

The Kra (anal ro!ect "as first brought into concetion by a )renchengineer M. *e +a Mar

in 1,-- during the reign of King arai the reat. The roosed canal "ill connect the

Andaman Sea "iththe ulf of Thailand thus by assing the cho#e oint of Malacca Straits.

urose of the canal then "as to allo" the )renchto gain dominance over the region but "as

shelved due to the deterioration of relations bet"een )rance and Thailand. *uring the course

of history$ the idea of the canal "as brought u reeatedly for reasons such as nationalsecurity in terms of threat from 'urma and economics in terms of trade dominance but "as

also shelved time and again due to olitical in terms of relationshi "iththe 'ritishand cost

issues.

It "as only in recent times that the ro!ect "as ic#ed u again to access the otential cost

and benefits that it "ill bring to Thailand. Advantages of this canal "ill come in the form of

otential rofits in terms of increased trade volume as shis no" have an alternative route to

s#i the Malacca Straits and travel directly to (hina. This saves both time and cost in

transorting oil and goods. The increased trade volume "ill generate income for the country

and "ill hel in develoment of the industries and ort facilities around Kra Isthmus. The

country "ill also benefit in terms of increased * from the increase in trade.

*isadvantages "ill come in the form of bilateral relationshi "ith neighbouring countries$

Thailand may otentially face olitical roblems as this canal cometes directly "ith

Singaore and Malaysia. Singaore being in the business of sea trade "ill be most negatively

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affected by the building of the canal. o"ever$ (hina and aan "ill be a strong suorter of

the canal as it cuts do"n travel time for shis to go to and fro bet"een itself and its trade

artners. Internally "ithin Thailand$ construction of the canal may give the insurgents "ithin

SouthThailand an ob!ect to sabotage or fight for control.

ScoeIn order to transort goods and oil from the Indian cean to the acific cean$ there are

several routes. )irst of "hich is through the Malacca Straits$ second is via the +ombo#

Ma#assar Straits$ third is to cut a canal throughKra Isthmus or build a ieline across Kra

Isthmus. In this aer$ the cost of cutting a canal throughKra Isthmus "ill be evaluated and

minimi5ed. The most otimum route in terms of lo"est cost or shortest distance "ill be

resented.

In this reort$ the focus "ill be on building a canal through the Kra Isthmus. Several routes

suggested by the Thai government "ill be evaluated for its economic cost. 6ach route has

been deemed a feasible and ossible route for the canal. 6achroute has also been chec#ed to

see "hether by building the canal through the suggested route$ "ill it have to cut through

mountainous regions or "ill it use an e&isting "ater "ay. 'y cutting through mountainous

regions$ a enalty "ill be given because e&tra cost and effort has to be ut in to remove the

roc#s. 'y using an e&isting "ater "ay to build the canal$ a discount "ill be given because

less effort "ill be re7uired since only an e&tension or ugrade of the "ater "ay "ill be

re7uired.

ProblemStatement

The ob!ective of this ro!ect is to ma&imi5e annual rofit from the oeration of the canal

through finding a suitable configuration for the si5ing of the canal throughKra Isthmus in

Southern Thailand.

As traffic of vessels assing the nearby "ater changes every year$ an e&traolation "as

estimated for the eriod of 10 years$ from 2018 to 2028. This is to determine if the initial

crosssectional area of the canal "ill re7uire ugrades in the future to afford the increase inbigger vessels% traffic. This is similar to the "or#s being done in anama and Sue5 (anals$

increasing the si5e of the canals due to higher traffic of bigger vessels.

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Assumptions

*ue to the lac# of some detailed statistics and to simlify some calculations related to costs$

some assumtions "ere made during the formulation and imlementation of the model9

-

*emograhic data is reresentative for the "hole rovince involved :thoughthis is in

fact not totally accurate due to the concentration of oulation at certain areas suchas river

side or delta "hile mountainous areas tend to have lo"er oulation density;.

- 6conomic inde& is reresentative for the "hole rovince involved :thoughthis is only

an average and differs in arallel to oulation distribution;

-

Averages are ta#en to be reresentative "henever t"o or more rovinces are involved

in formulation and imlementation. Some averages are simle means of values$ "hile others

are "eighted based on a related arameter.

-

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- Though each vessel has its o"n tonnage$ for simlification uroses$ each tye of

vessel is assumed to have the same >standard? tonnage for calculation urose by relating

eachtye%s toll "ithits o"n tonnage. In reality$ "here data is available for tonnage of vessels$

a ne" assessment should be carried out based on both tye of vessel and tonnage of each

vessel.

ModelFormulations

b!ective function

Ma&imi5e Annual rofit9 (ost functions

1;

Soil removal cost9 (ost of digging and removing soil from the ground to oen u the

ath

"ay for th

e canal.Th

is cost deends on th

e crosssectional area of th

e canal andits resective length. (ost of removing 1 m3is riced at 3,@.

"here ! " # $ %2;

6ngineering cost9 (ost of engineering to the canal is estimated to be 1.= of Soil

removal cost & "'3;

+abour cost9 (ost of labour ayouts$ based on an average of 00 "or#ers er #m2site$

for the duration of the ro!ect$ estimated to ta#e 1 days to comlete a #ilometer ofthe canal$ "itha salary of 1.2 times an average earning of a erson in these

rovinces in a day.

( $)*+,-*., /"" "here ( "$ # $ $ "and

011234526478 9: ): ;:8 9: ;: "here iand nare order of the canal route and total number of canal routesresectively.

4;

ersonal (omensation9 (ost of remuneration for relocation of all affected residents

along the canal site "ithan amount of , months average earning for a erson in these

rovinces.

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)*+,-*.,/ "here : ;$*+,-*.,$ ;$*+,-*., 8 ?@ABCDEAFAGHICCJ B-C+LM,Nand

: 8 9::

;

ousehold (omensation9 (ost of remuneration for relocation of all affected

households along the canal site "ithan amount of either 1$000@ or si& times

average in these rovinces$ "hichever is higher.O O PQ" )*+,-*.,"hereO RB@8 ?@ASSAFAGH8 ?@ABCDAFAGH and R@ T8 ?@ABCDAFAGH8 ?@AR-,*AFAGH

,; Relocation (ost9 (ost of relocation suort for all affected households riced at

10$000@ er household.

O -; Additional cost for mountain9 (ost incurred to flatten hilly or mountainous terrain$ inaddition to soil removal.P P PQ" "

B;

*iscount for river9 Some art of the canal can be integrated into e&isting "ater "ays

abundant in the areaC this allo"s some saving on soil removal cost$ thus a discount.$ PQ/ "8; Total fi&ed cost9 Sum of all comonent costs

UV ! &! ! ! O! !P $ 10;

Annual erating (ost9 Relative to the revenue annually$ assumed at 1= of Annual

Revenue W "'11;

Annuali5ed (ost9 W! X UV Revenue functions

Annual Revenue :ARev;9 Sum of all toll fees aid by vessels going throughthe canal.

Refer to Anne& 2 for fee rices and calculation of toll fee for a vessel.

enerally$ UYY+ V> Z! V[ Z! $%U+ Z Z VTarameters$ D E14$ 1.$ 18.$ 20.$ 21$ 22.$ 24F :in meters;%D E3$ 3B$ 3$ ,$ B$ ,2$ ,,F :in feet; :1 foot D 0.304B m;

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"here d and " are indices for order of dethand "idthresectively.PQ+D E3eG4$ ,eG4$ 1eG$ 1-eG4$ 1B.eG4$ 21eG4$ 24eG4F"here v is the order of vessel tyes.

(onstraints

1;

Some crosssectional area configurations do not allo" certain tyes of vessels9$%U+\ PQ 2;

Affected residents should be less than = of total oulation9 \ " 8 9: ;: 3;

The ro!ect should ta#e less than years for comletion9 $ \ /"4;

Total cost of the ro!ect should be less than 1 billion HS*9UV \ "Implementation

Stochastic lobal and +ocal timi5ation

Figure 1: The optimizationmethodology

The otimi5ation methodology is as sho"n in )ig 1. The soft"are latform of

imlementation is MAT+A' 2014a. Some e&amles of m.files are attached in Aendi& '.

SA of (orana et al. is a variant of line search method. It is chosen in this study due to its

uni7ue feature of acceting uhill movement or "orse solution for a more diverse e&loration

of the searchsace :(orana et al.$ 18B-;. I*6 is a oulation based direct searchmethod that

mimics biological evolution by erforming mutation$ crossover and selection to escae from

the local minima :hang J Rangaiah$ 2011;. H''S is a oulation based algorithm

insired by the social behavior of floc#ing bird s"arms and fish schools to e&lore and

e&loit search sace :hang et al.$ 2011;. (onstraint handling mechanism is static enalty

function due to its simlicity in imlementation and sound erformance :Smith J (oit$

188-;.

MAT+A'%s inbuilt solver$ fmincon is used as the local otimi5er. The globally otimi5ed

decision variables "ill firstly be used as the inut of interior oint algorithm. Then$ the local

otimi5ation is run again "iths7 and subse7uently activeset. The reason behind this routine

GlobalOptimization

(IDE,SA andUBBSPO)

Local Optimization

(fmincon)

Chooe the !inim"m Cot #itho"tcont$aint %iolation o"t o& ' $ial

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of using three local otimi5ation algorithms one after another is e&lained by Math"or#s

:n.d.;

Results& Discussion

(anal Route "ithMinimum Total )i&ed (ost (aital

After studying different factors "hich have cost imlications$ the cost model in revious

section sho"s that the routes "hichhave lo"est fi&ed caital cost are /. )rom the resultanalysis$ lays a large art in the cost calculation and so it is reasonably sensitive tothe decision variables. Therefore$ the economic analysis is based on the decision to construct

a canal across southof Ranong and orthof +ungsuan (humorn.

(omarison bet"een *ifferent lobal timi5ationT

ech

ni7uesAs seen from Table 1$ I*6 has the highest accuracy by recording the highest success rate

:SR; out of 10 trials. H''S is traed in the local minimum in 2020 and 202, "hereas

SA in 2020. e&t$ the I*6 has the highest comutational efficiency by having the lo"est

mean global number of function evaluations :M)6;. (onversely$ SA is the least efficient

algorithm. These erformance indicators have sho"n that I*6 is the most efficient algorithm.

Table 1: Performance of Different Global OptimizationAlgorithms

Global OptimizationAlgorithms SA IDE UBBPSO

MGNFE **+'' .+*+// *SR 0 '0 10

If the otimi5ation methodology as sho"n in )ig 1 is not alied but the meshlot as sho"n

by )ig 2b is lotted and the otimum is obtain throughobservation$ the comutational time is

e&ected to be four times longer. If the sensitivity of the lot is increased$ the comutational

time is li#ely to be e&tended e&onentially and so$ in the light of fact that result of the

otimi5ation methodology is consistent "iththe meshlots$ the otimi5ation methodology is

more efficient and its alicability can be generali5ed to other otimi5ation roblems.

timal (anal *imensions and 6&ansion ro!ect

As sho"n by Table 2$ all three algorithms return a same set of otimi5ed decision variables at

2018. o"ever$ three algorithms have returned different timelines for the canal e&ansion

ro!ect. I*6 has indicated the e&ansion ro!ect is only feasible at 2121C so$ this ro!ect is a

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binary hased construction ro!ect "hich "ill be comleted in 2018 "ith e&ansion

comleted in 2021. After the analysis of the result$ H''S and SA of (orana et al. are

traed in a local minimum "hich gives a lo"er annual rofit comared to the otimum

found by the I*6 in 2020 and this finding leads to the disregard of SA and H''S%s results

in studying the feasibility and timeline of the e&ansion ro!ect. Therefore$ the cost sheetotimi5ed by the I*6 but not the other algorithms "ill be attached in the aendi& to sho"

the calculations of cashflo"s and several other rofitability criteria.

Table 2: Optimal Dimensionsof Canalsand Possible ExpansionProject

Optimal

Dimensions

Depth Width

2019 +' '22

2021* +3 +'

4 SA and UBBPSO ha%e ho#n a di&&e$ent $e"lt he5 ha%e been t$apped in local minim"m

At 2018$ tan#ers and containers "hichhave large d"t "ill not be allo"ed to ass throughthe

canal because of the ma&imum load constraint "ith resect to the canal dimensions.

o"ever$ as sho"n by the Anne& 3$ if the gro"thof containers and tan#ers has increased at

the ro!ected steady ace$ the e&ansion of canal is feasible to accommodate the tan#ers and

containers. The deeening and "idening of canal are otimi5ed to follo" the dimensions as

sho"n in Table 2 and is e&ected to be comleted in 2021.

As sho"n by )igures 2a and 2b$ the algorithms can be easily traed bet"een the t"o sets of

decision variables as sh

o"n inT

able 2 because th

eir ob!ective function values are relativelyclose. n the other hand$ the magnitude of cost and revenue are estimated to be at a same

magnitude$ W >]and this is the reason behind the immature convergence of solutionby H''S and SA of (orana et al. 'esides$ the considerably flat ob!ective function

indicates that the alication of a gradientbased search method or any other deterministic

algorithm is inaroriate and inefficient.

Figures 2a & b: Top and isometricviewsof the 3-D mesh plot of objective functionat 201

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As for the comutation of roerty dereciation$ the Modified Accelerated (ost Recovery

System :MA(RS; is emloyed. The selection of class life follo"s the eneral *ereciation

System :*S; because it allo"s a more desirable and shorter class life. Therefore$ the *S

(lass +ife of this ro!ect falls in the 38 years category. o"ever$ a 10 years of class life is

assumed for the urose of this study.As sho"n from the cost sheet attached in Anne& ,$ the discounted payback period is

estimated to be 10.1 years of oeration. +i#e"ise$ the return on investment:RI; after 11

years of oeration is estimated to be 20=. e&t$ the investorsrateofreturn:IRR; is 12=.

Figure 3: Cum.Discounted cash !lows"Cum.Present #alues)$ominal %nterest &ate ' 12(

As sho"n by )ig 2$ the final net present value :

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References

*r Keovimol$ S and *r Ing$ (anal +ine consideration for the Thai (anal$ n.d.Thaa$ R'$ Kusanagi$ M$ Kita5umi$ A and Murayama$ Y$ Sea avigation$ challenges and

otentials in South6ast Asia9 An assessment of suitable sites for shiing canal in South

Thai Isthmus

International Maritime rgani5ation$ Mandatory Shi Reorting Systems$ 188B$ 2, May

.A$ umbers of Shis Reorting Hnder STRAITR6 Hntil March2014$ n$d

a#hon Si Thammarat rovincial Statistical ffice$ reliminary Reort The 2000 oulation

and ousing eeds$ 2000

ational Statistical ffice$ oulation (onsensus$ n$dgui$ YK($ Kra (anal9 The 6lusive *ream$ A#ademi#a B2:1; 20129 -1B0

(orana$ A.$ Marchesi$ M.$ Martini$ (.$ J Ridella$ S. :18B-;. Minimi5ing multimodal

functions of continuous variables "iththe >simulated annealing? algorithm.AC)

Transactionson)athematical *oftware$ 13:3;$ 2,22B0. doi910.114/283B0.28B,4

Seider$ L. *.$ Seader$ . *.$ +e"in$ *. R.$ J Lidagdo$ S. :2010;. *ynthesis,Analysisand

Evaluation.

Smith$ A. 6.$ J (oit$ *. L. :188-;. (onstraint andling Techni7ues enalty )unctions.

Handboo+ of Evolutionary Computation$ (hater 2.

hang$ .$ )ernnde5

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Appendix

1.Modelformulation notations

A +and Ac7uired io. of ouseholds of each

rovince

A(M Additional cost for mountain + +engthof canal

A Affected households +ab +abour needed

And( Annuali5ed (ost +andH +andinactualuse

A Annual erating (ost +( +abour cost

A Affected oulation M 'inary Multilier for mountain

Arof Annual rofit ( ersonal comensation

AR Affected residents * ro!ect duration

Areai Area of eachrovince o*averageAverage rovincial oulation

density

ARev Annual Revenue o*ioulation *ensity of each

rovince

* *ethof canal oi oulation of eachrovince

*(R *iscount for river R 'inary Multilier for river

6( 6ngineering cost R( Relocation cost

averageAverage gross rovincial

roduct

SR( Soil removal cost

iross rovincial roduct of each

rovinceT)( Total )i&ed (ost

( ousehold comensation L Lidthof canal

2. TollTable

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RR B0$000 4.40 4.31 4.24

assenger 0$000 4.42 4.33 4.2,

Tug/To" 30$000 @ 3200/vessel

thers -0$000 .33 .22 .14

3. ProjectedTraffic

Year 2018 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 202 202, 202- 202B 2028

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Accountsreceivable

B,,483444.B 10B33-3004

Accounts ayable -20B2824,.- 3088-1841

Total 1,08-3-23, 22,,0220

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6. PseudoCodeofSAofCoranaet al.

The nomenclature of variables are as follo"s9

] Initial ste length"ith$dimensions in ste vectorc A ste lengthad!ustment arameter$ controls ho" muchvchanges

T0 Initial annealing temerature

rT Temerature reduction factor$ controls ho" muchTchanges after eachtemerature reductioncycle

$i# umber of generation s before eachelement of v is udated

$iT umber of generation s before T# is reduced by a factor of rT

Tolerance value for terminating criterion

$ft umber of ob!ective function values found in consecutive$ latest generations used in the

termination criterion

seudo(ode of SA of (orana et al.9

%nput9 v$ c$ T0,rT,$iT,$i#,$!Emax,$ft,. and$Trial

*tep 1: Initiali5ation

Initiali5e generation counter$ ) Initiali5e an initial target vector of elements randomly by Q] ^_ `Qa*b QaL c ! QaL / d ef RecordgCDh ; andgCDh

*tep 29 eneration

WHILEtermination criteria of$!Emaxor (orana%s novel termination criteria as follo"s are not metiPj9kPj9kl mi\ n o d epPj9k `gCDh c\ n Hdate counter) ) !

Forj q eUForr q ef

FORdimension

qef

osk Qk! ks^_WHILEoskt> u ^QaL Qa*b _osk Qk! ks ^_ v / d efEND

6valuatewsk ;

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Hdategk;$ gk$gCDh; and gCDh and xsby selection ste asfollo"s9

gkt>

y

wsk gk `wsk c xs xs! gk } `wsk cwsk gk `wsk c xs xs! gk ~ `wsk c ^_~ ;gk pv

x

v / d efgCDh wsk `gCDh c `wsk c xs xs! gCDh } `wsk cgk pvx v / d efEND

gkt> gk6*

FORdimension v qefHdate kt>s bykt>s

ks ! @l]]Z LNI ks ! @l]]Z LNI ~ #ks pvx

v /d ef

6*

END

Ukt> UkPj9k gkt>;$END

Output9gCDh;7. Pseudo-codeofIDE

$P oulation si5e

/P learning eriod

T/* tabu list si5eT& tabu radius

Gmax ma&imum number of generations

$&max ma&imum number of re!ections

Pseudo-Code of %DE:

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%nput9$P$ Trial$ Gmax$ T&$/P$$&max$gaLand ga*b *tep 1: Initiali5ation

Initiali5e $Pg]%s randomly Select`gCDhcand gCDh from$Pg]%s

Send the evaluated individuals to the tabu list

Set ;kN /"and jN " "here x q #*tep 29 enerationWHILE termination criteria$&maxor Gmaxis not met) ) !

IF ) } FORx q #(alculate ekN (alculate ;kN

jND median :

Pj9N;

For qeND ormrnd :jN$ 0.1;END

END

END

Hse stochastic universal selection method to choose a mutation strategy for eachindividual

WHILE$&O$&max

FORarticle q eWHILE

wk gk [ U

V D ormrnd :0.$ 0.3;roduce wk according to the assigned mutation strategy andcrossover oeration

(hec# boundary violations of wk and regenerate wk if it violatesthe boundary chec#

IFwk gk[\ URD RG 1

END

ENDEND

6valuatewk and send it to udate the tabu listIF`wk cOgk;gkt> wk gkt> wk

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FORx q #Store Ninto Pj9N xkN xkN ! END

IF`gCDhc wk gkt> wk gkt> wk END

ELSE

FORx q #kN kN! END

END

END

END

Output9`gCDh c8. Pseudo-codeforUPSO

%nputs9$P$ Trial$ Gmax$ P$$ft$gaLand ga*b*tep 19 Initiali5ation

Initiali5e generation counter$

)

Initiali5e oulation of$Particles randomly by 67. 2.13

(hoose ] and ] "here qe (hoose from DCDk%s

*tep 29 eneration

WHILE termination criteria Gmaxis not met or (orana%s novel termination criteria as follo"s are notmet

) ) ! FORarticle ;; q e

IF ^_ "Hsegbest toologyIF kD

FOR qef(arry out mutation and crossover oeration

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ok

y

;(xp>k ! " `;(xp[k ;(xpTk c u >u [u T /d e ^_~ "

(xpk

pv

x

/d ef / d eEND

ELSE

FOR qefenerate ok by aussian distributionk D,Nh tL,Nh[ / d ef

/dek ;(xpk !(xpk / d ef /deok ej `k k c ^_~ " ;(xpk pvx

/ d ef /d eIFk k

END

END

END

kt> wk wk ~ k k pvx / d e wk wk ~ pvx / d e

kt> wk

`wk c~ `t>kc `wkc~ `t[kcwt>k Yx `wt>kc~ `t[kcwt[k pvx /d e ! e ! /StoreinPj9k

ELSE

Hse lbest toology

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IF kDk FOR qef

(arry out mutation and crossover oeration to generate ok END

ELSE

FOR qefenerate ok by 67s. 2.24a to 2.24c

IFk k

END

END

END

(arry out selection ste to udate k $ k and StoreinPj9k END

END

END

Output9