8/9/2019 CMR DA

1/7

Civil-military relations are strong, but could be de-railedRicks 9/12/13 [Thomas, Ed. OfBest Defenseblog at Foreign Policy,http://ricks.foreignpolicy.com/posts/2!"/#/!2/gen$scales$needs$to$learn$that$discretion$is$the$better$part$of$ci%il$military$%alo, mg&

'n additional conse()ence of the p)blic*s gro+ing distance from the armed forces is the belief that, +hen it comes to a decision to go to +ar, the

opinions of ser%icemembers sho)ld carry etra +eight beca)se they +ill be the ones doing the fighting and the dying. This is a profo)ndly

)ndemocratic position in a co)ntry +here the ci%ilian branches of go%ernment are eplicitly empo+ered by the -onstit)tion to be the soledeterminants of national sec)rity policy. en. cales*s dismissal of the 0hite 1o)se staff as +annabe soldiers reinforces the dangero)s idea that

only military personnel, +ith their )ni()e moral a)thority, are ()alified to comment on +hen and ho+ the nation goes to +ar. Few

commentators today would argue that merican civil-military relations are in a state o!

crisis" #ur armed !orces are loyal, patriotic, and committed to the $rinci$le o! civilian control o! the

military " %he country&s civil-military relationshi$, however, is being sub'ected to a set o!

stressors unlike any in our history: a decade of +arfare, the instit)tionali3ation of the all4%ol)nteer force, and politicalgridlock +hich has )ndermined the p)blic tr)st in o)r elected leaders. 5n this atmosphere, retired general officers m)st resist the temptation to

+ade too %igoro)sly into national sec)rity debates. 's lifetime representati%es of their respecti%e ser%ices, they command an a)thority that can

dangero)sly encroach on the constit)tional responsibilities of elected officials. For these retired officers, sometimes discretion is the better part of

%alor. 6

Changes to war $owers cause massive backlash to the military

Russia %imes 13 ()ay 1*, htt$+//rt"com/usa/terror-al-aeda-$entagon-war-39/,mg.

ven a!ter cutting o!! the head o! al-0aeda, the nited tates e$artment o! e!ense doesn4t believe an end to the war on

terror is in sight" #n %hursday, one 5entagon o!!icial $redicted the mission against al-0aeda

could continue !or another two decades"6 $eaking to the enate rmed ervices early %hursday, ssistant ecretary o! e!ense

!or $ecial #$erations )ichael heehan said the 5entagon has no $lans to $ull out o! its almost 12-year-old war

overseas"6 7hen asked !or his take on how long the war on terror could go on !or, heehan told lawmakers, 8t least 1 to 2 years":6 ccording to

5resident ;arack #bama, the last combat troo$s will move out o! !ghanistan in 21

8/9/2019 CMR DA

2/7

C)R colla$se hurts military readiness

kelton 41275ke, -hairman of the 1o)se 'rmed er%ices -ommittee, grad)ate of 0ent+orth 8ilitary'cademy and the 9ni%ersity of 8isso)ri at -ol)mbia, +here he recei%ed '.. and ;.;.. degrees, ichard John, predicted that i! the civilmilitary ga$ continued to

widen, the military6would develo$ a culture distinct !rom that o!6the society at large"6

%he lack o! communication and understanding between the military and society 6could bedetrimental to the military,as it co)ld 6res)lt in decreased s)pport for ongoing +ars,6as >ichard -ohen s)ggests +e are seeingno+.6Aecreased p)blic s)pport for +ar efforts amid 6larger economic diffic)lties co)ld lead to red)ctions in the defense b)dget, increased

diffic)lty6in recr)itment and retention, and e%en c)ts 6in military benefits, personnel, training, and 6e()ipment. s the merican

$ublic becomes6more disconnected !rom the military, it will6be less willing to lend !ullsu$$ort to military6endeavors" One of the lessons from =ietnam6is that it is diffic)lt and perhaps impossible to 6s)stain a

+ar effort +itho)t the )nderstanding 6and acti%e s)pport of the people.6%he growing ga$ in civil-military6relations

could have negative im$acts on6retention, in terms o! both uality and uantity.8any of themost talented people may 6choose to lea%e the military sooner than they 6other+ise +o)ld if they belie%e their hard 6+ork, dedication, and

ser%ice are not %al)ed 6by society. 9ltimately, i! the military has6trouble attracting and retaining high-

caliber,6intelligent, and motivated individuals, it may6become something less than it is

today"That 6has not happened yet, b)t it is something to 6+atch o)t for.6This )nderscores the importance of 6coming to grips +ith the

gro+ing gap beca)se 6this +orrisome trend cannot be halted or 6re%ersed +itho)t going to the so)rce of the 6problem. s current

con!licts draw down6and !orce structure shrinks even a little at the6same time the

general $o$ulation increases,6the $ercentage o! mericans serving will6decrease.'ccordingly, society +ill be less 6likely to sho+ the military the respect and 6gratit)de it deser%es.6This leads to the second key point. 6There

are t+o sides to this gap and both m)st 6be eamined to )nderstand the problem. Follo+ing from that, there is +ork to do on both 6sides to

narro+ the gap.KKKK

C)R key to sto$ $roli! J $roli! leads to nuclear war

Cohen 4 ?liot "-, 5ro!" K 5aul L" itBe chool o! dvanced =nternational tudies M director o! the trategic tudiesde$artment K ohns Lo$kins, worked !or od, taught at the "" aval 7ar College, Fall, ational =nterest, 87hy the Aa$ )atters -

ga$ between military and civilian world:, htt$+//www"2

8/9/2019 CMR DA

3/7

likely to do so anytime soon" Eet cumulatively, the conseuences have been un!ortunate enoughT the ine$t conclusion to the Aul!

7ar, the omalia !iasco, and dithering over merican $olicy in Eugoslavia may all $artially be

attributed to the $oor state o! merican civil-military relations " o too may the subtle erosion o! morale in themerican military and the de!ense re!orm deadlock, which has $reserved, to !ar too great a degree, outdated structures and mentalities" For now, to be sure,

the nited tates is wealthy and $ower!ul enough to a!!ord such $rat!alls and ine!!iciencies" ;ut the !ull conseuences will not be !elt

!or some years , and not until a ma'or military crisis--a challenge as severe in its way as the Gorean or Uietnam 7ar--arises" uch an eventualityT

di!!icult as it may be to imagine today, could occur in any o! a number o! venues+ in a con!lict with China over %aiwan, in

a des$erate attem$t to shore u$ colla$sing states in Central or outh merica, or in

a renewed outbreak o! violence-- this time with wea$ons o! mass destruction thrown into the

miD -in outhwest sia" %L 5R#V o! increased social and institutional

vulnerability on the one hand and increased military in!luence on narrow sectors o!

$olicymaking on the other is the essence o! the contem$orary civil-military $roblem " =tsroots lie not in the machinations o! $ower hungry generalsT they have had in!luence thrust u$on them" or do they lie in the !ecklessness o! civilian leaders

determined to remake the military in the image o! civil societyT all militaries must, in greater or lesser degree, share some o! the mores and attitudes o! the

broader civiliBation !rom which they have emerged" %he $roblem re!lects, rather, dee$er and more enduring changes in $olitics, society and technology"

8/9/2019 CMR DA

4/7

8/9/2019 CMR DA

5/7

2C

@e+ restrictions on the Eec)ti%e +ill be resisted by the military beca)se they are

imposed eternally by ci%iliansL this cr)shes -8> and ca)ses rollback, t)rns the case#wens 13[8ack)bin O+ens is Editor of Orbis,FP>5Ms ()arterly Go)rnal of international affairs, and enior Fello+ at its Program on @ational ec)rity,

Professor of @ational ec)rity 'ffairs at the @a%al 0ar -ollegeL C)ly, https://+++.fpri.org/articles/2!"/N/+hat4military4officers4need4kno+4

abo)t4ci%il4military4relations, mg&

'll too often, military o!!icers seem to believe thatif the 9nited tates does not face the prospect of a ;atin4'merican

or 'frican style military co)p dMtat, then all is well in the realm of civil-military relations" )t this is a stra+ man. ' n)mberof scholars, incl)ding >ichard John, Peter Fea%er, the late >)ssell 0eigley, 8ichael Aesch, and Eliot -ohen ha%e arg)ed that altho)gh there is

no threat of a co)p on the part of the 9 military, merican civil-military relations have nonetheless deteriorated

over the $ast two decades.66For eample, the military has 8$ushed back: against civilian

leadershi$ on n)mero)s occasions d)ring the last t+o decades.%his $ushback has mani!ested itsel! in 8!oot

dragging,: 8slow rolling: and leaks to the $ress designed to undercut $olicy or individual $olicy-

makers. )ch actions +ere rampant d)ring the -linton presidency and d)ring the ten)re of Aonald >)msfeld as secretary of defense. uch

$ushback is based on the claim that civilians were making decisions without $aying su!!icient

attention to the military $oint o! view"

The military +ill p)sh back against the plan444 commanders are pre4a)thori3ed to )se

offensi%e cyber attacksCyber7arWone 12[http://+++.cyber+ar3one.com/cyber+arfare/)s4needs4top4le%el4appro%al4la)nch4cyberattacks, mg&

The Aefense Aepartment is de%eloping r)les of engagement for ho+ commanders +ill operate in cyberspace and +hat missions they can cond)ct

)nder their o+n a)thority.66A)ring congressional testimony last month, 'leander said decisions on how to res$ond to

adversaries in cybers$ace would be made by the $resident and secretary o! de!ense" ;ut

military commanders would have authority i! circumstances demanded immediate action"

The military +ants offensi%e cyber ops444 itMs their ne+ +eapon of choiceRussia %imes 13Hhtt$+//rt"com/usa/aleDander-cyber-command-o!!ensive-29/, mg.

%he head o! the nited tates Cyber Command says the is develo$ing

8/9/2019 CMR DA

6/7

say that the 13 suads o! o!!ensive !ighters won4t be sitting around waiting !or hackers !rom abroad

to strike !irst" %he chie! described the grou$s as IIde!end-the-nation44 teams but also stressed that their role will be

one that $uts them on both sides o! the action"6 8= would like to be clear that this team" " " is an o!!ensive team,: he told re$orters on %uesday"68%he teams are analogous to battalions in the rmy and )arine Cor$s X or suadrons in the avy and ir Force,: said leDander" 8=n short, they will soon

be ca$able o! o$erating on their own, with a range o! o$erational and intelligence skill sets, as well as a miD o! military and civilian $ersonnel":6 Chris

trohm, a national security re$orter !or ;loomberg, says the units will 8!ocus on missions such as $rotecting vital com$uter networks !rom attacks,

su$$orting combat o$erations and kee$ing the 5entagon4s in!ormation-technology systems secure":6 %he ssociated 5ress re$orts that Aen" leDander

likened the teams4 duties to 8knocking an incoming missile out o! the sky be!ore it hits a target,: and that they4d serve as de!ensive teams with addedo!!ensive ca$abilities" 7hat o!!ensive actions the teams will engage in eDactly will likely remain

unknown !or now, however, as the has continues to closely guard its secretive cyber

o$erations"6

Pentagon s)pports the offensive nat)re of its ne+ cyber po+ers444 the plan restricts those

Lillburn 13H)atthew, U#,http://+++.%oane+s.com/content/)s4cybercom4to4go4on4offensi%e/!22#.html,mg.

%he "" e$artment o! e!ense has made a rare acknowledgement that it is develo$ing o!!ensive cyber ca$abilities"6 6 =n

testimony be!ore the enate rmed ervices Committee this $ast week, Aen" Geith leDander, director o! the ational ecurity gency, said 13 cyber

war!are 8teams: would be ready by 21O"6 6 ccording to a $re$ared statement, the teams would be 8analogous to battalions inthe rmy and )arine Cor$sXor suadrons in the avy and ir Force": Furthermore, 8they will soon be ca$able o! o$erating on their own, with a range o!

o$erational and intelligence skill sets, as well as a miD o! military and civilian $ersonnel":66S>et me be clear, this de!end-the-nation

team is not a de!ensive teamT this is an o!!ensive team that the e$artment o! e!ense

would use to de!end the nation i! it were attacked in cybers$ace,S he said during the testimony"

5redictions are accurate enough and should be used as a basis !or $olitical

action

Cherno!! 29. Fred, Prof. 5> and Air. 5> Q -olgate 9., E)ropean Co)rnal of 5nternational >elations,obert -o, >ob 0alker and 'le 0endt ha%e attacked nat)ralism by emphasi3ing the interpreti%e nat)re of socialtheory. 'shley is eplicit in his criti()e of prediction, as is -o, +ho says ()ite simply, R5t is impossible to predict the f)t)reM 7'shley, !#: 2"L

-o, !#N: !"#, cf. also !#N: "#"H. 8ore recently, 1eikki PatomSki has arg)ed thatIualitative changes and emergence are

$ossible, but $redictions are not4 de!ectiveand that the latter t+o pres)ppose an )nG)stifiably narro+ notion of RpredictionM.!

determined $rediction sce$tic may continue to hold that there is too great a degree o! com$leDity

o! social relationshi$s7+hich comprise Ropen systemsMHto allow any $rediction whatsoever" T+o %erysim$le

eDam$les may circumscribe and hel$ to re!ute a radical variety o! sce$ticism. First, we all make

reliable social $redictions and do so with great !reuency. 0e can predict +ith high probability that a spo)se, child orparent +ill react to certain +ell4kno+n stim)li that +e might s)pply, based on etensi%e past eperience. 8ore to the point of 5> prediction Qscepticism, +e can imagine a yo)ng child in the 9J +ho 7perhaps at the cinemaH 7!H picks )p a bit of !#th4cent)ry ritish imperial lore th)s

gaining a sense of the po+er of the cro+n, +itho)t kno+ing anything of c)rrent balances of po+er, 72H hears some stories abo)t the 9Q9J

in%asion of 5ra( in the contet of the aim of ad%ancing democracy, and 7"H hears a bit abo)t comm)nist -hina and democratic Tai+an. 'ltho)gh

the specific term Rpre%entati%e strikeM might not enter into her leicon, it is possible to imagine the child, +hose kno+ledge is th)s limited,

thinking that if democratic Tai+an +ere threatened by -hina, the 9J +o)ld 7possibly or probablyH la)nch a strike on -hina to protect it, m)ch asthe 9J had done to help democracy in 5ra(. 5n contrast to the child, readers of this Go)rnal and scholars +ho st)dy the +orld more thoro)ghly

ha%e fact)al information 7e.g. abo)t the relat i%e military and economic capabilities of the 9J and -hinaH and hold some ca)se4and4effectprinciples 7s)ch as that states do not )s)ally initiate actions that leaders )nderstand +ill ha%e an etremely high probability of )nderc)tting their

po+er +ith almost no chances of s)ccessH. 'nyone +ho has ade()ate kno+ledge of +orld politics +o)ld predict that the 9J +ill not la)nch a

pre%enti%e attack against -hina. 5n the real +orld, -hina kno+s that for the net decade and +ell beyond the 9J +ill not inter%ene militarily inits affairs. 0hile -hinese leaders ha%e to plan for many likely and e%en a fe+ some+hat )nlikely f)t)re possibilities, they do not ha%e to

plan for %ario)s impla)sible contingencies: they do not ha%e to str)ct)re forces geared to defend against specifically 9J forces and do not ha%e

to cond)ct diplomacy +ith the 9J in a +ay that +o)ld be re()ired if s)ch an at tack +ere a real possibility. 'ny rational decision4maker in -hina

may )se some ca)se4and4effect 7probabilisticH principles along +ith kno+ledge of specific facts relating to the ino4ritish relationship to predict

7P2H that the 9J +ill not land its forces on -hinese territory e%en in the e%ent of a +ar o%er Tai+an 7that is, the probability is %ery close to3eroH. The statement P2 ()alifies as a prediction based on AEF abo%e and co)nts as kno+ledge for -hinese political and military decision4

makers. ' -hinese diplomat or military planner +ho +o)ld deny that theory4based prediction +o)ld ha%e no basis to r)le o)t etremely

impla)sible predictions like P2 and +o)ld th)s ha%e to prepare for s)ch )nlikely contingencies as 9J action against -hina. ' reflei%ist theorist

http://www.voanews.com/content/us-cybercom-to-go-on-offensive/1622489.htmlhttp://www.voanews.com/content/us-cybercom-to-go-on-offensive/1622489.htmlhttp://www.voanews.com/content/us-cybercom-to-go-on-offensive/1622489.htmlhttp://www.voanews.com/content/us-cybercom-to-go-on-offensive/1622489.html

8/9/2019 CMR DA

7/7