CMD16 Financial TT€¦ · - Pro-forma 2014, 2015 and LTM September 30, 2016 Orders received 1,796...
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Transcript of CMD16 Financial TT€¦ · - Pro-forma 2014, 2015 and LTM September 30, 2016 Orders received 1,796...
Financials
Thomas ThuressonAlfa Laval Group
www.alfalaval.com
FinancialFinancialFinancialFinancial
FINANCIAL UPDATE
� Pro-forma new Divisions
� Comparison distortion items
� After Sales & Service
� Cost structure
NNNNOVEMBEROVEMBEROVEMBEROVEMBER 22, 201622, 201622, 201622, 2016
� Step-up, Fx etc.
� Order backlog & sales bridge
� GPM and Cash-flow
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Marine Division- Pro-forma 2014, 2015 and LTM September 30, 2016
Orders received 12.0 13.6 10.5
Order backlog 12.1 11.3 9.0
Net sales 11.4 14.5 12.9
No of employees, FTE 3,314 3,293 3,068
2014SEK Bn
2015SEK Bn
LTM 1609SEK Bn
Pro-forma EBIT-margin on an LTM-basis approximately 19 %
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Food & Water Division- Pro-forma 2014, 2015 and LTM September 30, 2016
Orders received 10.8 11.0 11.2
Order backlog 4.1 4.1 4.3
Net sales 11.2 11.1 11.3
No of employees, FTE 3,491 3,603 3,636
2014SEK Bn
2015SEK Bn
LTM 1609SEK Bn
Pro-forma EBIT-margin on an LTM-basis approximately 13 %
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Energy Division- Pro-forma 2014, 2015 and LTM September 30, 2016
Orders received 12.9 10.2 9.4
Order backlog 6.5 4.7 4.4
Net sales 12.6 11.9 10.7
No of employees, FTE 3,491 3,297 3,186
2014SEK Bn
2015SEK Bn
LTM 1609SEK Bn
Pro-forma EBIT-margin on an LTM-basis approximately 15 %
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“Greenhouse”- Pro-forma 2014, 2015 and LTM September 30, 2016
Orders received 1,796 1,561 1,564
Net sales 1,764 1,651 1,533
EBIT - 72 - 133 - 164
- In % of sales - 4.1 - 8.1 - 10.7
No of employees, FTE 841 776 813
2014SEK M
2015SEK M
LTM 1609SEK M
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Comparison distortion items- Reorganization and cost adjustment initiatives
A program for reorganization and improved competitiveness with three individual initiatives:
� Reorganization and adjustment of resources to demand
� Manufacturing footprint adjustment
� “Greenhouse” - a focused improvement project for three product groups
Total non-recurring charges estimated to be SEK 1.5 billion
Q3 2016 costs and the expected effects:
� Non-recurring charges SEK 1,100 million- SEK 600 million refers to write-off of mainly goodwill and step-up*- SEK 500 million refers to mainly staff reductions of some 700
employees, write offs of assets and provisions for leases
� Estimated savings SEK 300 million- Refers to overhead costs
- Expected to be largely implemented by end of Q2 2017
*) Refers to Greenhouse project
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Comparison distortion items- Reorganization and cost adjustment initiatives, SEK M
A program for reorganization and improved competitiveness with three individual initiatives:
Charge Q316 Charges to come
� Reorganization…………….... 245 -
� Manufacturing footprint etc… 70 400
� “Greenhouse”……………….. 185 -- Write-off……………………. 600 -
Total: 1,100 400
Total non-recurring charges estimated to be SEK 1.5 billion
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Comparison distortion items- Impact in the P&L and on number of employees, SEK M
COGS - 120 - 250 + ____ - 400 + _____
R & D
S & A - 380 - 450 + 300
Other - 600
Employee
impact
Total Savings Charges
to come
Charge Q3 Additional savings
Total: - 1,100 - 700 + 300 (+) - 400 + ____
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0
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0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
2006 2008
SEK million
2010 2012
Percent of sales
2014 LTM 1609Service in MSEK
Service, in % of sales
Service- Development over the last decade
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0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
2006 2008
Total Service
SEK million
2010 2012
SEK million
Marine Service
2014 LTM 1609
Other Service
O & G Service
Service- By “Sector” over a decade, SEK M
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0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
- 13 % y-o-y
2013 2014 2015 LTM 1609
- 1 % y-o-y
Marine Service
Other Service
O & G Service
Service- By “Sector” 2013- LTM 1609, SEK M
+ 4 % y-o-y
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Sales revenue
COGS
Gross profit, appr 36 %
Other overhead, > 15 %
Indirect personnel, appr 7 %Direct personnel, appr 8 %
Direct materials, other variable & subcontract, < 70 %
Cost structure of products- Insight to assess possible effect of volume variations
Contribution 50 % => � Mix CS vs AS&S� Measures to reduce impact
of load variations
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SEK million
Translation effect
Transaction effect
Total
*) Transaction based on EUR/USD 1.10 and EUR/SEK 9.75
Translation based on closing rates as per October 31, -16
FY 17*
125
150
275
FY 16
- 20
570
550
Q3 15
45
95
-100
40
9M 16
- 85
422
337
Foreign exchange- Estimated impact on adjusted EBITA from FX fluctuations
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0
200
400
600
800
1 000
1 200
0
2 000
4 000
6 000
8 000
10 000
12 000
2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016
Closing balance Amortization
20202018
Step-up values up to 2020- Closing balance and amortization according to plan, SEK M
Acquisitions
LBO-related
Amortization acc to plan
www.alfalaval.com*) Excluding net effect of step-up amortisation
Guidance- A summary
� R & D-spend in relation to total revenues, 2.0 – 2.5 %
� Taxes in the P&L, 28 % of PBT
� Capital expenditure in relation to total revenues, <= 2.0 %
� Dividend pay-out ratio, 40 – 50 % of adjusted EPS*
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0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
0
3 000
6 000
9 000
12 000
15 000
18 000
21 000
24 000
2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015
% of LTM-salesSEK millions
Order backlog development
% of LTM sales
Order backlog
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Other Segments0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
14000
16000
4,576
4,730
9,306
4,099
4,959
9,058
2,327
4,338
6,665
Marine & Diesel
20082006 2007
1,733
1,820
3,553
2005
7,705
3,655
4,050
2010
5,751
2,155
3,596 5,572
3,219
8,791
20122009 2011
8,650
3,508
5,142
2013
5,336
3,063
8,399
2014
5,297
9,732
15,029
5,162
8,940
14,103
2015 2016
4,203
6,675
10,878
Order backlog as per Sept 30- For delivery after December 31, MSEK at prevailing rates
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For delivery next year
0
4000
8000
12000
16000
20000
24000
7,324
6,567
13,192
8,766
15,873
6,256
15,314
8,330
For delivery later than next year
For next year,SEK 10.1 (13.4) Bn,”like-for-like”
SEK – 3.3 Bn!
For delivery during the rest of current year
5,487
11,689
5,480
5,937 6,705
8,387
15,496
6,418
8,050
15,068 15,071
7,993
6,672 7,371
13,364
22,400 22,117
13,359
8,014
17,791
10,093
6,913
20102008 20092007 2012 20142011 2013 2015 2016
Order backlog as per Sept 30- MSEK at prevailing rates
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BnSEK
LTM Q316 36.5
Change order backlog Q4, y-o-y - 1.1
Fx. Translation - / + 0.x
Acquisitions + 0.0
Demand, in-for-out Q416 - 0.x
Full year 2016 appr 35.0*
*) SME.Direkt, concensus estimate as per November 3, 2016
Sales- 2016 and 2017
www.alfalaval.com*) SME.Direkt, concensus estimate as per November 3, 2016
Sales- 2016 and 2017
BnSEK
Full year 2016 appr 35.0*
Change in order backlog y-o-y - 3.3
Fx. Translation + 1.0
Acquisitions during 2016 0.0
Subtotal: 32.7
Price + / - ?
Demand + / - ?
Further acquisitions + ?
Full year 2017: ?
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0%
10%
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1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015
Asian crisis
Marine & BRIC Boom
O&G declineMarine decline
Gross profit margin- Development 1991 – YTD 20162016 and 2017
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Cash generation - Over the last decade +
2002 2004 2006
Free cash-flow, MSEK
2008 2010
Percent of sales
Free cash-flow*, % of sales
2012 2014
*) Free cash-flow defined as; cash-flow before acquisitions, divestments and dividends
LTM1609
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