CMD Agenda, 30 May 2013 - sampo.com · UW focus in practice 13 ... Munich Re Generali AXA Aviva Zig...

65
CMD Agenda, 30 May 2013 1 12.30 - 12.45 Welcome - Kari Stadigh, Group CEO and President, Sampo Group 12.45 - 13.15 Torbjörn Magnusson, Head of P&C Insurance, Sampo Group 13.15 - 13.45 Christian Sagild, CEO of Topdanmark 13.45 - 14.15 Break 14.15 - 14.45 Torsten Hagen Jørgensen, Group CFO of Nordea Bank 14.45 - 15.00 Closing Remarks – Björn Wahlroos, Chairman of the Board, Sampo Group 15.00 – Q&A

Transcript of CMD Agenda, 30 May 2013 - sampo.com · UW focus in practice 13 ... Munich Re Generali AXA Aviva Zig...

Page 1: CMD Agenda, 30 May 2013 - sampo.com · UW focus in practice 13 ... Munich Re Generali AXA Aviva Zig SCOR % Hannover Re Combined ratio, % Sub-group 1 Sub-group 2 Sub-group 3 Sub-group

CMD Agenda, 30 May 2013

1

12.30 - 12.45 Welcome - Kari Stadigh, Group CEO and President, Sampo Group 12.45 - 13.15 Torbjörn Magnusson, Head of P&C Insurance, Sampo Group 13.15 - 13.45 Christian Sagild, CEO of Topdanmark 13.45 - 14.15 Break 14.15 - 14.45 Torsten Hagen Jørgensen, Group CFO of Nordea Bank 14.45 - 15.00 Closing Remarks – Björn Wahlroos, Chairman of the Board, Sampo Group 15.00 – Q&A

Page 2: CMD Agenda, 30 May 2013 - sampo.com · UW focus in practice 13 ... Munich Re Generali AXA Aviva Zig SCOR % Hannover Re Combined ratio, % Sub-group 1 Sub-group 2 Sub-group 3 Sub-group

Welcome Sampo Group, Capital Market Day 2013 Kari Stadigh, Group CEO and President

Page 3: CMD Agenda, 30 May 2013 - sampo.com · UW focus in practice 13 ... Munich Re Generali AXA Aviva Zig SCOR % Hannover Re Combined ratio, % Sub-group 1 Sub-group 2 Sub-group 3 Sub-group

Internal dividends 2008–2012

181

488 540 406

544 130

80

204

250

224

200

100

0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 900

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

P&C insurance (total 2,159) Nordea (total 888) Life insurance (total 300)

511 568

756 744

2

Dividend payout ratio for 2008–2012 (average): P&C insurance: 83.2% Nordea: 40.6% Life insurance: 56.8%

EURm

768

Page 4: CMD Agenda, 30 May 2013 - sampo.com · UW focus in practice 13 ... Munich Re Generali AXA Aviva Zig SCOR % Hannover Re Combined ratio, % Sub-group 1 Sub-group 2 Sub-group 3 Sub-group

Welcome Sampo Group, Capital Market Day 2013 Kari Stadigh, Group CEO and President

Page 5: CMD Agenda, 30 May 2013 - sampo.com · UW focus in practice 13 ... Munich Re Generali AXA Aviva Zig SCOR % Hannover Re Combined ratio, % Sub-group 1 Sub-group 2 Sub-group 3 Sub-group

If P&C Sampo Capital Market Day May 30, 2013

TORBJÖRN MAGNUSSON, CEO

Page 6: CMD Agenda, 30 May 2013 - sampo.com · UW focus in practice 13 ... Munich Re Generali AXA Aviva Zig SCOR % Hannover Re Combined ratio, % Sub-group 1 Sub-group 2 Sub-group 3 Sub-group

2

The leading Nordic P&C insurer

• GWP EUR 4.7bn

• Nordic market share of 19%*

• Solvency of 77% and S&P A rating

• 6,225 employees

* Including share of associated companies

Private; 55%

Commercial; 29%

Industrial; 14%

Baltic; 2%

If at a glance

Page 7: CMD Agenda, 30 May 2013 - sampo.com · UW focus in practice 13 ... Munich Re Generali AXA Aviva Zig SCOR % Hannover Re Combined ratio, % Sub-group 1 Sub-group 2 Sub-group 3 Sub-group

19,2%

-0,8%

53,2%

39,8%

12,4%

36,9% 39,7%

2,6%

-3,1%

12,4%

7,4%

1,8%

6,1%

1,4%

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013Q1

3

Average ROE 2007-2012 of 25.1% Average dividend EUR 495m

90,6% 91,8% 92,1% 92,8% 92,0% 88,9% 88,7%

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013Q1

(R12)

Combined ratio (%) ROE (%) and ROI (%)

Performance over time

Page 8: CMD Agenda, 30 May 2013 - sampo.com · UW focus in practice 13 ... Munich Re Generali AXA Aviva Zig SCOR % Hannover Re Combined ratio, % Sub-group 1 Sub-group 2 Sub-group 3 Sub-group

Performance update – Q1 2013

4

(EURm) Q1 - 13 Q1 - 12 Change (%)

GWP 1,775 1,701 4.4%

Technical result 122 120 1.7%

Investment result 102 113 -9.7%

Operating result 204 198 3.0%

Result for the period 161 155 3.9%

Risk ratio 67.7% 69.0% -1.3%-p

Cost ratio 23.2% 22.7% 0.5%-p

Combined ratio 90.9% 91.7% -0.8%-p

Return on equity 39.7% 52.1% -12.4%-p

Page 9: CMD Agenda, 30 May 2013 - sampo.com · UW focus in practice 13 ... Munich Re Generali AXA Aviva Zig SCOR % Hannover Re Combined ratio, % Sub-group 1 Sub-group 2 Sub-group 3 Sub-group

91,5% 88,1%

90,6%

4,1% 3,3% 2,7%

Q1-12 2012 Q1-13

Industrial

Private Commercial

94,8%

89,0% 92,0%

4,1%

2,6%

3,2%

Q1-12 2012 Q1-13

92,5% 95,8%

92,0% 5,7%

3,7%

-3,3% Q1-12 2012 Q1-13

Baltic

89,0% 87,1%

94,6%

1,3%

0,8% 0,6%

Q1-12 2012 Q1-13

5

Results by Business Area - Q1 2013 Combined ratio and GWP growth

Page 10: CMD Agenda, 30 May 2013 - sampo.com · UW focus in practice 13 ... Munich Re Generali AXA Aviva Zig SCOR % Hannover Re Combined ratio, % Sub-group 1 Sub-group 2 Sub-group 3 Sub-group

If ; 18%

Tryg; 11%

RSA Scandinavia; 9%

LF; 9%

Gjensidige; 9%

Pohjola; 4%

Topdanmark; 5%

Other; 35%

Nordic P&C – market size of EUR 24bn

6

Nordic market shares (%)

Note: If market share including holding in Topdanmark 19%

Page 11: CMD Agenda, 30 May 2013 - sampo.com · UW focus in practice 13 ... Munich Re Generali AXA Aviva Zig SCOR % Hannover Re Combined ratio, % Sub-group 1 Sub-group 2 Sub-group 3 Sub-group

3,9

6,5

6,7

7,7

Finland

Norway

Denmark*

Sweden

Nordic market mix

7

19%

25%

10%

26%

Sweden Norway Denmark* Finland

Note: Including holding in Topdanmark

Nordic 19%

GWP 2012 (EURbn) If market share

*2011 figures

Page 12: CMD Agenda, 30 May 2013 - sampo.com · UW focus in practice 13 ... Munich Re Generali AXA Aviva Zig SCOR % Hannover Re Combined ratio, % Sub-group 1 Sub-group 2 Sub-group 3 Sub-group

8

56%

18%

Share of total market

92,8

98,8

93,3

85,4

95,3 96,6

88,9 88,2 88,0 86,6 85,3

97,1

90,9 90,3 92,3

94,2

If Tryg Topdanmark RSAScandinavia

Gjensidige Pohjola

102,0

100,0

96,5 97,0

102,0

99,0 99,0

LähiTapiola Länsförsäkringar Folksam

2010 2012 2013 Q1

Share of total market

Market profitability Combined ratio (%)

Page 13: CMD Agenda, 30 May 2013 - sampo.com · UW focus in practice 13 ... Munich Re Generali AXA Aviva Zig SCOR % Hannover Re Combined ratio, % Sub-group 1 Sub-group 2 Sub-group 3 Sub-group

Market development Sweden

19% 19% 19%

31% 29% 30%

17% 16% 16%

14% 15% 15%

19% 21% 20%

2008 2010 2012

If LF Trygg-Hansa Folksam Other

Developments Market share (%)

9

• 5th biggest company (Tryg) only 3% market share

• New bancassurance agreement 2013 – Nordea/If

• Volkswagen/Audi-If agreement renewed 2013

• Price increases in excess of inflation in private lines

• Aggregator market share <2%

Page 14: CMD Agenda, 30 May 2013 - sampo.com · UW focus in practice 13 ... Munich Re Generali AXA Aviva Zig SCOR % Hannover Re Combined ratio, % Sub-group 1 Sub-group 2 Sub-group 3 Sub-group

Market development Norway

28% 25% 25%

29% 28% 25%

18% 17%

15%

10% 10%

10%

17% 20% 25%

2008 2010 2012

If Gjensidige Tryg SpareBank 1 Other

Market share (%)

10

Developments

• Growing economy and insurance market

• Several new entrants 2008-2010, stable market since 2011

• Period of high inflation, since 2012 replaced by period of low claims frequency

• No aggregators, low internet sales

Page 15: CMD Agenda, 30 May 2013 - sampo.com · UW focus in practice 13 ... Munich Re Generali AXA Aviva Zig SCOR % Hannover Re Combined ratio, % Sub-group 1 Sub-group 2 Sub-group 3 Sub-group

Market development Finland

26% 25% 26%

28% 28% 29%

27% 28% 27%

11% 10% 10% 9% 9% 8%

2008 2010 2012

If Pohjola Tapiola+Lähivakuutus Fennia Other

Market share (%)

11

Developments

• Acquisition of Tryg branch

• New bancassurance agreement 2013 – Nordea/If

• Further consolidation – LähiTapiola

• No significant new entrants

• No aggregators, however internet sales significant

Page 16: CMD Agenda, 30 May 2013 - sampo.com · UW focus in practice 13 ... Munich Re Generali AXA Aviva Zig SCOR % Hannover Re Combined ratio, % Sub-group 1 Sub-group 2 Sub-group 3 Sub-group

12

UW focus

Page 17: CMD Agenda, 30 May 2013 - sampo.com · UW focus in practice 13 ... Munich Re Generali AXA Aviva Zig SCOR % Hannover Re Combined ratio, % Sub-group 1 Sub-group 2 Sub-group 3 Sub-group

UW focus in practice

13

• UW policy with very clear and enforced limitations

• UW committee with real power as an active challenger

• Models cannot replace experience and risk aversion in top management

• Gross underwriting principle

• Explicit accountability for each underwriting decision

• Willingness to underwrite only business that is clearly understood

• Focus on making tariffs effective in distribution

Page 18: CMD Agenda, 30 May 2013 - sampo.com · UW focus in practice 13 ... Munich Re Generali AXA Aviva Zig SCOR % Hannover Re Combined ratio, % Sub-group 1 Sub-group 2 Sub-group 3 Sub-group

Pricing: Unrivalled pricing skills Example of price build-up and pricing criteria

Objective criteria

Customer product choices

Customer behavior

Price

Customer product choice

Young driver

Claims

Age

Deductible

Car Make

Objective criteria

Customer behavior

14

Correct customer pricing strongly supports sales and customer retention

Page 19: CMD Agenda, 30 May 2013 - sampo.com · UW focus in practice 13 ... Munich Re Generali AXA Aviva Zig SCOR % Hannover Re Combined ratio, % Sub-group 1 Sub-group 2 Sub-group 3 Sub-group

Annual If Pen Award

Incentivised organisation Skills in focus

• Incentive systems including

all employees linked to performance

• Accountability of results

• Continuity in management

15

Performance & underwriting culture

Page 20: CMD Agenda, 30 May 2013 - sampo.com · UW focus in practice 13 ... Munich Re Generali AXA Aviva Zig SCOR % Hannover Re Combined ratio, % Sub-group 1 Sub-group 2 Sub-group 3 Sub-group

Strong pricing and underwriting control

92% 92% 93%

92%

89% 89%

4,1%

3,8%

3,0%

2,4% 2,0%

1,9%

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 R122013 Q1

CR Technical interest

Implementation of low interest rate environment Financial discipline

2,4% 2,4% 2,9%

3,3% 2,8%

1,2%

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Q1

Prior year gains (% of CR)

16

Page 21: CMD Agenda, 30 May 2013 - sampo.com · UW focus in practice 13 ... Munich Re Generali AXA Aviva Zig SCOR % Hannover Re Combined ratio, % Sub-group 1 Sub-group 2 Sub-group 3 Sub-group

Average Combined Ratio & Standard Deviation 2007-E2014

17 Source: Macquarie, European Insurance, 22.01.2013

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 100

Gjensidige

Topdanmark

Swiss Re

Tryg

Sampo

Munich Re

Generali

AXA

Aviva

Zig

SCOR

Hannover Re

Stan

dar

d d

evia

tio

n, %

Combined ratio, %

Sub-group 1

Sub-group 2 Sub-group 3

Sub-group 4

AVERAGE

Allianz

Page 22: CMD Agenda, 30 May 2013 - sampo.com · UW focus in practice 13 ... Munich Re Generali AXA Aviva Zig SCOR % Hannover Re Combined ratio, % Sub-group 1 Sub-group 2 Sub-group 3 Sub-group

Creating shareholder value

• Stable return through underwriting excellence and scale advantage

• Financial discipline

• Management commitment to continuous improvement

18

Page 23: CMD Agenda, 30 May 2013 - sampo.com · UW focus in practice 13 ... Munich Re Generali AXA Aviva Zig SCOR % Hannover Re Combined ratio, % Sub-group 1 Sub-group 2 Sub-group 3 Sub-group
Page 24: CMD Agenda, 30 May 2013 - sampo.com · UW focus in practice 13 ... Munich Re Generali AXA Aviva Zig SCOR % Hannover Re Combined ratio, % Sub-group 1 Sub-group 2 Sub-group 3 Sub-group

1 1 1

SAMPO CMD 2013 PRESENTATION OF TOPDANMARK

BY CHRISTIAN SAGILD, CEO 30 MAY 2013

Page 25: CMD Agenda, 30 May 2013 - sampo.com · UW focus in practice 13 ... Munich Re Generali AXA Aviva Zig SCOR % Hannover Re Combined ratio, % Sub-group 1 Sub-group 2 Sub-group 3 Sub-group

2 2 2

• Profitable growth – in that order

• The Danish non-life market

• Highlights in Q1 2013

• How to grow profitably

Agenda

• Share buy-back

Page 26: CMD Agenda, 30 May 2013 - sampo.com · UW focus in practice 13 ... Munich Re Generali AXA Aviva Zig SCOR % Hannover Re Combined ratio, % Sub-group 1 Sub-group 2 Sub-group 3 Sub-group

3 3 3

• All of the 6 largest players representing a market share of 73% are quoted on the stock exchange

• Efficient players • Operating with an expense ratio of ~ 17% • Expense ratio for EU peers around 25-30%

• Low interest rates increase focus on technical result

• Provisions for outstanding claims discounted by a zero coupon rate structure

• Direct market

• Large Non-Nordic – except for RSA – do not operate in the personal and SME segments

The Danish non-life market

Page 27: CMD Agenda, 30 May 2013 - sampo.com · UW focus in practice 13 ... Munich Re Generali AXA Aviva Zig SCOR % Hannover Re Combined ratio, % Sub-group 1 Sub-group 2 Sub-group 3 Sub-group

4 4 4

• Disciplined market – efficient players

• Already direct market

• Low expense ratio

• Relatively small market

• Micro rating

• Takes time to build a profitable portfolio

The best way to penetrate the Danish market is to make an acquisition

Entry barriers

Page 28: CMD Agenda, 30 May 2013 - sampo.com · UW focus in practice 13 ... Munich Re Generali AXA Aviva Zig SCOR % Hannover Re Combined ratio, % Sub-group 1 Sub-group 2 Sub-group 3 Sub-group

5 5 5

Example based on experience from Topdanmark: - Premium volume DKK 1,000m – portfolio in personal market - CR = 90 or a profit of DKK 100m - Expense ratio 18%, of which 10% new business

02468

10121416

0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20+Age of policies – number of years

Premium profile (%)

Total = 100%

0

50

100

150

200

0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20+Age of policies – number of years

Combined ratio

Weighted CR Total = 90

Entry barriers

Page 29: CMD Agenda, 30 May 2013 - sampo.com · UW focus in practice 13 ... Munich Re Generali AXA Aviva Zig SCOR % Hannover Re Combined ratio, % Sub-group 1 Sub-group 2 Sub-group 3 Sub-group

6 6 6

(100)(80)(60)(40)(20)

02040

Age of policies – number of years

Profit (DKKm) kr.

Total = DKK 100m

(100)

(50)

0

50

100

150

Age of policies – number of years

Accumulated profit (DKKm)

Profit 20+ = DKK 100m

Milestones

Example based on experience from Topdanmark: - Premium volume DKK 1,000m – portfolio in personal market - CR = 90 or a profit of DKK 100m - Expense ratio 18%, of which 10% new business

Accumulated profit shows result of new business after x years

Entry barriers

Page 30: CMD Agenda, 30 May 2013 - sampo.com · UW focus in practice 13 ... Munich Re Generali AXA Aviva Zig SCOR % Hannover Re Combined ratio, % Sub-group 1 Sub-group 2 Sub-group 3 Sub-group

7 7 7

• Profitable growth – in that order

• The Danish non-life market

• Highlights in Q1 2013

• How to grow profitably

Agenda

• Share buy-back

Page 31: CMD Agenda, 30 May 2013 - sampo.com · UW focus in practice 13 ... Munich Re Generali AXA Aviva Zig SCOR % Hannover Re Combined ratio, % Sub-group 1 Sub-group 2 Sub-group 3 Sub-group

8 8 8

• In non-life nothing is easier than top line growth

• What is difficult is growing without diluting CR

• Topdanmark is primarily exposed to personal, agricultural and SME segments

• Segments with high claims frequency and low average claims • Relatively low volatility in CR due to this strategy combined with risk-

based prices (micro rating) and a comprehensive reinsurance programme

• Reduced exposure to large industrial customers as their profitability does not meet Topdanmark’s return requirements

• E.g. exposure to workers’ comp reduced by 41% since 2007

• Continued limited top line growth expected • Expected premium growth of 1-2% in 2013

• >1-2% in personal, agricultural and SME segments • <1-2% in industrial segment • Improved quality in profitability

• Focus on growth in EPS

Profitable growth – in that order

Page 32: CMD Agenda, 30 May 2013 - sampo.com · UW focus in practice 13 ... Munich Re Generali AXA Aviva Zig SCOR % Hannover Re Combined ratio, % Sub-group 1 Sub-group 2 Sub-group 3 Sub-group

9 9 9

• Profitable growth – in that order

• The Danish non-life market

• Highlights in Q1 2013

• How to grow profitably

Agenda

• Share buy-back

Page 33: CMD Agenda, 30 May 2013 - sampo.com · UW focus in practice 13 ... Munich Re Generali AXA Aviva Zig SCOR % Hannover Re Combined ratio, % Sub-group 1 Sub-group 2 Sub-group 3 Sub-group

10 10 10

Distribution power

Pricing Efficiency

Customer satisfaction

Our criteria of success

Page 34: CMD Agenda, 30 May 2013 - sampo.com · UW focus in practice 13 ... Munich Re Generali AXA Aviva Zig SCOR % Hannover Re Combined ratio, % Sub-group 1 Sub-group 2 Sub-group 3 Sub-group

11 11 11

0A B C D E F G H

Company without price differentiation

0A B C D E F G H

Company with price differentiation

Risk premium Basis for pricing

Micro rating – How it works!

Risk-based prices

Page 35: CMD Agenda, 30 May 2013 - sampo.com · UW focus in practice 13 ... Munich Re Generali AXA Aviva Zig SCOR % Hannover Re Combined ratio, % Sub-group 1 Sub-group 2 Sub-group 3 Sub-group

12 12 12

020406080

100120140160180

A B B E E F G H0

20406080

100120140160180

A C C D D F G H

Premium increase Lower turnover

Company without segmentation Company with segmentation

MICRO RATING

How it works!

Page 36: CMD Agenda, 30 May 2013 - sampo.com · UW focus in practice 13 ... Munich Re Generali AXA Aviva Zig SCOR % Hannover Re Combined ratio, % Sub-group 1 Sub-group 2 Sub-group 3 Sub-group

13 13 13

• Topdanmark has a multi-distribution strategy

• Improved distribution agreement with Danske Bank • Previously Danske Bank was responsible for the sale of Topdanmark’s

non-life insurance products to its customers • Now Danske Bank only refers potential customers to Topdanmark

• Topdanmark is responsible for sales • Works well and more sales representatives employed to attend to

referrals from Danske Bank • High correlation between being a good bank customer and a good

non-life customer

• Topdanmark’s own sales force strengthened by employment of more sales representatives

• Strong competitive position in personal, agricultural and SME segments

Distribution power Strong distribution power in mass market

Page 37: CMD Agenda, 30 May 2013 - sampo.com · UW focus in practice 13 ... Munich Re Generali AXA Aviva Zig SCOR % Hannover Re Combined ratio, % Sub-group 1 Sub-group 2 Sub-group 3 Sub-group

14 14 14

Annual churn 24% Share of customers 3%

Annual churn 4% Share of customers 39%

Annual churn 14% Share of customers 2%

Annual churn 10% Share of customers 22%

Annual churn 7% Share of customers 34%

Ambassador B high C Medium D Low E very low TEST GROUP Days

mono = Total group Survival function

9

1 and 2

Customer satisfaction

Page 38: CMD Agenda, 30 May 2013 - sampo.com · UW focus in practice 13 ... Munich Re Generali AXA Aviva Zig SCOR % Hannover Re Combined ratio, % Sub-group 1 Sub-group 2 Sub-group 3 Sub-group

15 15 15

Source: ASMA telephone measurements – 30 April 2013

Unsatisfied customers Ambassadors

Improved customer measurements

8.1%

7.7%

6.8%

5.6%34%

37%

39%

42%

30%

35%

40%

45%

4%

5%

6%

7%

8%

9%

10%

2010 2011 2012 YTD 30 April 2013

Page 39: CMD Agenda, 30 May 2013 - sampo.com · UW focus in practice 13 ... Munich Re Generali AXA Aviva Zig SCOR % Hannover Re Combined ratio, % Sub-group 1 Sub-group 2 Sub-group 3 Sub-group

16 16 16

1) Scandinavian business

93.6

95.7

92.0 90.3 91-92

80.0

85.0

90.0

95.0

100.0

105.0

110.0

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 E

Com

bine

d ra

tio

Topdanmark Tryg Codan Alm Brand1)

Topdanmark’s CR excl. run-off is relatively stable

Page 40: CMD Agenda, 30 May 2013 - sampo.com · UW focus in practice 13 ... Munich Re Generali AXA Aviva Zig SCOR % Hannover Re Combined ratio, % Sub-group 1 Sub-group 2 Sub-group 3 Sub-group

17 17 17

• Profitable growth – in that order

• The Danish non-life market

• Highlights in Q1 2013

• How to grow profitably

Agenda

• Share buy-back

Page 41: CMD Agenda, 30 May 2013 - sampo.com · UW focus in practice 13 ... Munich Re Generali AXA Aviva Zig SCOR % Hannover Re Combined ratio, % Sub-group 1 Sub-group 2 Sub-group 3 Sub-group

18 18 18

• Q1 2013 profit of DKK 505m (Q1 2012: DKK 561m) • Profit per share declined from DKK 4.3 to DKK 4.1

Profit forecast model for 2013 • Assumed growth in premiums unchanged at 1-2% for 2013 • Assumed CR adjusted from 91-92 to 90-91 for the full year 2013, excl. run-off profits / losses in Q2-Q4 2013 • Profit forecast model for 2013 upgraded by DKK 150m to DKK 1,200-1,300m, excl. run-off profits / losses in Q2-Q4 2013

• Premiums increased by 0.8% in non-life insurance and 3.1% in life insurance • Investment return declined to DKK 251m (Q1 2012: DKK 505m) • Result of life insurance increased to DKK 209m (Q1 2012: DKK 51m)

• CR improved to 89.6 (Q1 2012: 90.2) • CR excl. run-off increased to 93.9 (Q1 2012: 92.2)

• Buy-back programme for 2013 increased by DKK 150m to DKK 2,150m

• Buy-back yield of 12.2%

Highlights – Q1 2013

Page 42: CMD Agenda, 30 May 2013 - sampo.com · UW focus in practice 13 ... Munich Re Generali AXA Aviva Zig SCOR % Hannover Re Combined ratio, % Sub-group 1 Sub-group 2 Sub-group 3 Sub-group

19 19 19

• Profitable growth – in that order

• The Danish non-life market

• Highlights in Q1 2013

• How to grow profitably

Agenda

• Share buy-back

Page 43: CMD Agenda, 30 May 2013 - sampo.com · UW focus in practice 13 ... Munich Re Generali AXA Aviva Zig SCOR % Hannover Re Combined ratio, % Sub-group 1 Sub-group 2 Sub-group 3 Sub-group

20 20 20

BUY-BACK FOR 2013

• Increase from DKK 2,000m to DKK 2,150m

• Buy-back yield of 12.2 % • To date in 2013 shares of DKK 704m bought back • Leaving a balance of DKK 1,446m of buy-back for 2013 • Since 1998 Topdanmark has cancelled 69.7% of outstanding

shares • Average price per share: DKK 41

• From 2000 to 2012 average buy-back yield has been 9.3%

Page 44: CMD Agenda, 30 May 2013 - sampo.com · UW focus in practice 13 ... Munich Re Generali AXA Aviva Zig SCOR % Hannover Re Combined ratio, % Sub-group 1 Sub-group 2 Sub-group 3 Sub-group

21 21 21

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

20

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 E

7

19

13

9 10

7

10

14

3

2

8

10 9

12.2

AVERAGE YIELD OF 9.3% (2000-2012) Yi

eld

9.3 Average

Page 45: CMD Agenda, 30 May 2013 - sampo.com · UW focus in practice 13 ... Munich Re Generali AXA Aviva Zig SCOR % Hannover Re Combined ratio, % Sub-group 1 Sub-group 2 Sub-group 3 Sub-group

22 22 22

Any questions?

Page 46: CMD Agenda, 30 May 2013 - sampo.com · UW focus in practice 13 ... Munich Re Generali AXA Aviva Zig SCOR % Hannover Re Combined ratio, % Sub-group 1 Sub-group 2 Sub-group 3 Sub-group

23 23 23

Disclaimer

This presentation includes statements relating to the future. Such statements are uncertain and involve both general and specific risks. Many factors may cause a significant deviation from the forecasts and assumptions set out in the presentation. Such factors could be, for example, cyclical movements, changes in the financial markets, the financial effect of non-anticipated events like acts of terror or exceptional weather conditions, changes in Danish and EU rules, competitive factors in the insurance industry and the trends in the reinsurance market. Also see www.topdanmark.com → Investor → Risk management. The above description of risk factors is not exhaustive. Investors and others, who may base decisions relating to Topdanmark on statements relating to the future, should make their own careful considerations on these and other factors of uncertainty. Topdanmark’s statements relating to the future are solely based on information known at the time of the preparation of the interim report for Q1 2013. This publication is a translation. In case of any divergence, the original Danish text shall prevail.

Page 47: CMD Agenda, 30 May 2013 - sampo.com · UW focus in practice 13 ... Munich Re Generali AXA Aviva Zig SCOR % Hannover Re Combined ratio, % Sub-group 1 Sub-group 2 Sub-group 3 Sub-group

Nordea’s financial plan 2013-2015

Sampo Capital Markets Day 2013Torsten Hagen Jørgensen, Group CFO

Page 48: CMD Agenda, 30 May 2013 - sampo.com · UW focus in practice 13 ... Munich Re Generali AXA Aviva Zig SCOR % Hannover Re Combined ratio, % Sub-group 1 Sub-group 2 Sub-group 3 Sub-group

Disclaimer

This presentation contains forward-looking statements that reflect management’s currentviews with respect to certain future events and potential financial performance. AlthoughNordea believes that the expectations reflected in such forward-looking statements arereasonable, no assurance can be given that such expectations will prove to have beencorrect. Accordingly, results could differ materially from those set out in the forward-lookingstatements as a result of various factors.

Important factors that may cause such a difference for Nordea include, but are not limited to:(i) the macroeconomic development, (ii) change in the competitive climate, (iii) change in theregulatory environment and other government actions and (iv) change in interest rate andforeign exchange rate levels.

This presentation does not imply that Nordea has undertaken to revise these forward-lookingstatements, beyond what is required by applicable law or applicable stock exchangeregulations if and when circumstances arise that will lead to changes compared to the datewhen these statements were provided.

Page 49: CMD Agenda, 30 May 2013 - sampo.com · UW focus in practice 13 ... Munich Re Generali AXA Aviva Zig SCOR % Hannover Re Combined ratio, % Sub-group 1 Sub-group 2 Sub-group 3 Sub-group

• The financial plan

• Q1 2013 result highlights

Page 50: CMD Agenda, 30 May 2013 - sampo.com · UW focus in practice 13 ... Munich Re Generali AXA Aviva Zig SCOR % Hannover Re Combined ratio, % Sub-group 1 Sub-group 2 Sub-group 3 Sub-group

4

2015 plan – progress against our published goals

Capital initiatives to maintain CT1 ratio >13%

Initiatives for income generation

Flat costs 2013-14Initiatives for cost savings of ~EUR450m

Low risk profile and low volatility

Strong capital generationand return of excess capital

to our shareholders

ROE target of 15%at a CT1 ratio >13%

and with normalised interest rates

Delivering low volatility resultsbased on a well diversified

and resilient business model

Nordea market commitments Key initiatives and levers

Page 51: CMD Agenda, 30 May 2013 - sampo.com · UW focus in practice 13 ... Munich Re Generali AXA Aviva Zig SCOR % Hannover Re Combined ratio, % Sub-group 1 Sub-group 2 Sub-group 3 Sub-group

5

>10%11.6%

>13%

>15%

2012 Regulation,net

Capitalcalibration

RoEadjusted

Incomegeneration

Costefficiency,lower C/I

ratio

Lower loanlosses

2015 ROEforecast

Normalisedinterestrates

ROE atnormalised

interestrates

~1p.p.~1p.p.

~1p.p.

~2p.p.

~(1) p.p.

Well balanced plan to reach ambitious ROE target

Return on equity, %

2

¹ Average equity and CT1 management buffer2 Short term interest rates at ~3%

1

Equity capital effect1

Page 52: CMD Agenda, 30 May 2013 - sampo.com · UW focus in practice 13 ... Munich Re Generali AXA Aviva Zig SCOR % Hannover Re Combined ratio, % Sub-group 1 Sub-group 2 Sub-group 3 Sub-group

6

Net interest income growth constituting 40-50% of income growth 2013-2015

Nordea Group income split Initiatives

58% 56%

19% 24%

23% 20%

2009 2012 2015E

NII NCI Other income

Blended margin

Repricing of lending margins

More business with existing customers

Other (e.g. deposit margins and new customers)

1,00%

1,05%

1,10%

1,15%

1,20%

1,25%

1,30%

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

E20

14E

2015

E

Initiatives for supporting NII growth and margin expansion

Normalised interest rates

Current expectations

Page 53: CMD Agenda, 30 May 2013 - sampo.com · UW focus in practice 13 ... Munich Re Generali AXA Aviva Zig SCOR % Hannover Re Combined ratio, % Sub-group 1 Sub-group 2 Sub-group 3 Sub-group

7

Ancillary income growth driven by product capabilities

Net commission and Net gains constituting 50-60% of income growth 2013-2015

Nordea Group income split Initiatives

58% 56%

19% 24%

23% 20%

2009 2012 2015E

NII NCI Other income

Non NII-Income vs. Nordic peers

70

80

90

100

110

120

130

140

Q4/

07Q

2/08

Q4/

08Q

2/09

Q4/

09Q

2/10

Q4/

10Q

2/11

Q4/

11Q

2/12

Q4/

12

Nordea

Nordic peers

Risk products

Asset management

Transaction related

Page 54: CMD Agenda, 30 May 2013 - sampo.com · UW focus in practice 13 ... Munich Re Generali AXA Aviva Zig SCOR % Hannover Re Combined ratio, % Sub-group 1 Sub-group 2 Sub-group 3 Sub-group

8

Flat costs will be maintained throughout 2014 (excluding effect of FX and variable salaries, including profit sharing)

Gross savings of EUR450m, in total for 2013-15, corresponding to 8.7% of total 2012 cost base

C/I ratio expected to improve

Reinvestments in prioritised areas e.g.

— IT infrastructure and investments to meet mandatory regulatory requirements

1 21

0

1 16

4

1 20

3

1 17

3

1 19

3

1 16

3

1 17

7

1 16

8

1 19

6

Q4/

10

Q1/

11

Q2/

11

Q3/

11

Q4/

11

Q1/

12

Q2/

12

Q3/

12

Q4/

12

Q1/

13

Q2/

13

Q3/

13

Q4/

13

Q1/

14

Q2/

14

Q3/

14

Q4/

14

CommentsNordea total expenses (Excl. FX and variable pay), EURm

Nordea total expenses, EURm

5,18

6 (350)

+250 +100(100)

+70+130

2012

Gro

sssa

ving

s

Cos

tin

flatio

n

Rei

nves

t-m

ents

FX a

ndva

riabl

esa

larie

s

2014

E

Gro

sssa

ving

s

Cos

tin

flatio

n

Rei

nves

t-m

ents

2015

E

Cost efficiency to further improve in the 2015 plan

Page 55: CMD Agenda, 30 May 2013 - sampo.com · UW focus in practice 13 ... Munich Re Generali AXA Aviva Zig SCOR % Hannover Re Combined ratio, % Sub-group 1 Sub-group 2 Sub-group 3 Sub-group

9

Loan losses expected to decrease

Actual loan losses, bps Comments

Average loan loss ratio approximately 16bps

For 2012, Banking Denmark and Shipping constituted more than half of loan losses

Loan losses expected to revert to around historical average during 2013-2015, following signs of improved conditions in problem areas

(16)

(70)

(60)

(50)

(40)

(30)

(20)

(10)

0

10

20

30

Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

Q1

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

Page 56: CMD Agenda, 30 May 2013 - sampo.com · UW focus in practice 13 ... Munich Re Generali AXA Aviva Zig SCOR % Hannover Re Combined ratio, % Sub-group 1 Sub-group 2 Sub-group 3 Sub-group

10

Expectations in summary

CAGR ~4% Including normalised interest rates, CAGR ~6%

Income growth

CAGR ~0% 2012-14 (excl. FX and variable salaries) Some cost growth 2015 if supported by income growth

Cost growth

Approach 16bps during the period Loan loss ratio nearing historical average

Loan loss ratio

CAGR ~0% Mitigations compensating regulation

RWA

>13%CT1 ratio

CAGR ~2-3%Lending growth

>13% 2015, given expected interest rate development >15% 2015, with normalised interest rates

ROE

Nordea financial plan and expectations 2013-2015

Page 57: CMD Agenda, 30 May 2013 - sampo.com · UW focus in practice 13 ... Munich Re Generali AXA Aviva Zig SCOR % Hannover Re Combined ratio, % Sub-group 1 Sub-group 2 Sub-group 3 Sub-group

• The financial plan

• Q1 2013 result highlights

Page 58: CMD Agenda, 30 May 2013 - sampo.com · UW focus in practice 13 ... Munich Re Generali AXA Aviva Zig SCOR % Hannover Re Combined ratio, % Sub-group 1 Sub-group 2 Sub-group 3 Sub-group

Financial results Q1/13

12 •

EURm Q1/13 Q4/12 Change % Q1/12 Change %

Net interest income 1 400 1 429 (2) 1 420 (1)

Net fee and commission income 632 692 (9) 596 6

Net fair value result 444 444 0 469 (5)

Total income1 2 558 2 630 (3) 2 531 1

Staff costs (769) (764) 1 (771) 0

Total expenses (1 299) (1 327) (2) (1 276) 2

Cost Income Ratio 51% 50% 50%

Profit before loan losses 1 259 1 303 (3) 1 255 0

Net loan losses (199) (244) (18) (218) (9)

Operating profit 1 060 1 059 0 1 037 2

Net profit 796 842 (5) 775 3

Risk-adjusted profit 863 882 (2) 829 4

Return on equity (%) 11.3% 12.3% -100bps 11.9% -40bps

Core Tier 1 capital ratio (%) 13.2% 13.1% 10bps 11.6% 160bps

Risk-weighted assets (EURbn) 168 168 unch. 182.3 -8%

1 Includes Other income

Page 59: CMD Agenda, 30 May 2013 - sampo.com · UW focus in practice 13 ... Munich Re Generali AXA Aviva Zig SCOR % Hannover Re Combined ratio, % Sub-group 1 Sub-group 2 Sub-group 3 Sub-group

Stable Net Interest Margin but lower volumes

13 •

Largely unchanged margin, up 2 bps to 107 bps in Q1

Lower interest rates put pressure on deposit margins

Lending margins up somewhat in quarter

Improved in Finland and CIB Sweden

Demand for corporate lending remains subdued- Increasing importance of capital markets financing

Funding gap under control

Blended net interest margin development, % Comments

0,0%

0,3%

0,6%

0,9%

1,2%

1,5%

Q3/11 Q1/12 Q3/12 Q1/13

107 bps

Lending- and deposit volumes, EURbn*

307 314 317 323 325 320 321

167 176 179 184 186 184 181

Q3/11 Q4/11 Q1/12 Q2/12 Q3/12 Q4/12 Q1/13

Lending volumes Deposit volumes

* Excluding Repos

Page 60: CMD Agenda, 30 May 2013 - sampo.com · UW focus in practice 13 ... Munich Re Generali AXA Aviva Zig SCOR % Hannover Re Combined ratio, % Sub-group 1 Sub-group 2 Sub-group 3 Sub-group

14 •

Robust credit quality

Underlying credit quality remains robust

Stabilisation in level of impaired loans

Provisioning ratio increased to 43%

Credit quality remains solid in Finland, Norway, Sweden, Baltics and Poland

Losses in Denmark and shipping remain at elevated levels but were down in both areas compared to the previous quarter

- Loan loss ratio in Banking Denmark decreased from 55 bps to 47 bps in Q1/13*

- Ship values seem to be bottoming out, loan loss ratio in shipping decreased from 185 bps to 123 bps in Q1/13

Total net loan losses, EURm

4 004 4 023 3 905

2 852 2 882 2 922

Q3/12 Q4/12 Q1/13

Performing Performing Performing

Non-performing Non-performing Non-performing

Impaired loans, EURm

Comments

242

118 112

263

218 217254 244

199199

Q1/11 Q2/11 Q3/11 Q4/11 Q1/12 Q2/12 Q3/12 Q4/12 Q1/13

* Excluding provisions to the Danish Deposit Guarantee Fund

Page 61: CMD Agenda, 30 May 2013 - sampo.com · UW focus in practice 13 ... Munich Re Generali AXA Aviva Zig SCOR % Hannover Re Combined ratio, % Sub-group 1 Sub-group 2 Sub-group 3 Sub-group

15 •

Risk weighted assets

RWA flat on previous quarter

- Increase due to yearly update of operational risk

- Higher risk weights for commercial and residential real estate exposures due to expired regulatory transition rules. Interimistic impact until AIRB approval

Efficiency gains of EUR 2bn- Roll out of Internal Model Method

Risk-weighted assets , EURbn* Comments

* Basel 2.5 excluding transition rules

182 180 183 185 182 181 179

168 168

Q1/11 Q2/11 Q3/11 Q4/11 Q1/12 Q2/12 Q3/12 Q4/12 Q1/13

Page 62: CMD Agenda, 30 May 2013 - sampo.com · UW focus in practice 13 ... Munich Re Generali AXA Aviva Zig SCOR % Hannover Re Combined ratio, % Sub-group 1 Sub-group 2 Sub-group 3 Sub-group

16 •

Core Tier 1 ratio

10.711.0 11.0 11.2

11.6 11.812.2

13.1 13.2

Q1/11 Q2/11 Q3/11 Q4/11 Q1/12 Q2/12 Q3/12 Q4/12 Q1/13

Improved ratio 10 bps sine Q4/12 due to increased core tier 1 capital driven by strong profit generation and reduced shortfall reduction

Compliant with our capital policy of a Core Tier 1 ratio of >13%

Core Tier 1 capital ratio, %* Comments

* Excluding hybrids. Basel II excluding transition rules

Page 63: CMD Agenda, 30 May 2013 - sampo.com · UW focus in practice 13 ... Munich Re Generali AXA Aviva Zig SCOR % Hannover Re Combined ratio, % Sub-group 1 Sub-group 2 Sub-group 3 Sub-group

17

RoE development YoY - challenging macro environment and increased capital offset strong underlying business performance

RoE, per cent, Q1/Q1 Comments

Strong re-pricing of lending margins since January 2012, and lower loan losses

Lower interest rates, higher state guarantee fees and higher shareholders’ equity offset the improvement

Return on EquityQ1 2012 – Q1 2013

1,7

0,6 0,30,3

1,4

1,0

RoE Q1/13

11.3

Other incl FX

0,1

Increase in capital

Higher state guarantee

fees

0,2

Lower interest rates

Lower loan losses

Lower business volumes

0,2

NFVNCI excl state guarantee

fees

Re-pricingRoE Q1/12

11.9

Business driven +2.1%

External factors 2.6%

Page 64: CMD Agenda, 30 May 2013 - sampo.com · UW focus in practice 13 ... Munich Re Generali AXA Aviva Zig SCOR % Hannover Re Combined ratio, % Sub-group 1 Sub-group 2 Sub-group 3 Sub-group

18

Progress in summary

Core Tier 1 ratio +10 bps in Q1 to 13.2% CT1 ratio

RWA development in Q1 approx. flatRWA

Income holding upIncome growth

Underlying costs flat for 10th consecutive quarterCosts

Decreasing in line with planLoan losses

RoE slightly down y/y (-60 bps)RoE

Progress on Nordea financial plan 2013-2015, in Q1 2013

()

()

Page 65: CMD Agenda, 30 May 2013 - sampo.com · UW focus in practice 13 ... Munich Re Generali AXA Aviva Zig SCOR % Hannover Re Combined ratio, % Sub-group 1 Sub-group 2 Sub-group 3 Sub-group

Nordea’s financial plan 2013-2015

Sampo Capital Markets Day 2013Torsten Hagen Jørgensen, Group CFO