CMBS MARKET OVERVIEW1stsss.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/05/CREW-Webinar.pdf · 2015. 11. 17. ·...
Transcript of CMBS MARKET OVERVIEW1stsss.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/05/CREW-Webinar.pdf · 2015. 11. 17. ·...
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Welcomes you to this informative
Former COMBOG
Chairperson
Former Board Member
Member of Capital Markets
Forum
Former Board Member
Member of President’s
Council
Commercial Real Estate | CMBS Specialists
Brought to you by:
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CMBS MARKET OVERVIEW
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Speaking: Ann Hambly, 1st Service Solutions Ann Hambly created 1st Service Solutions in 2005 recognizing the need for a borrower advocate in
commercial real estate. Hambly has over 30 years of commercial real estate servicing experience and has
served as the CEO of servicing for Prudential, Bank of New York, Nomura, and Bank of America. In 2011
she was recognized as one of the most influential woman in commercial real estate by National Real
Estate Investor. She has also been recognized as one of the top 25 CEOs across all industries in a book
called True Leaders. She has been at the forefront of setting industry standards for commercial real estate
and has led many initiatives for industry groups that included attorneys, rating agencies, master and
special servicers, trustees, and bondholders.
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ǁ‖ Outstanding Real Estate Loans = $2.9 Trillion
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MARKET OVERVIEW
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LOANS IN SPECIAL SERVICING
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DEFAULTS BY YEAR OF ORIGINATION
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ǁ‖ Loan underwriting ! Pro forma rents ! Interest only – no amortization ! No reserves – required new borrower capital to fund TI, LC
ǁ‖ Bonds
! 90% of the loan was put in AAA ! Prior to 2005 only 70% of the loan was put in AAA ! Creation of the Super senior AAA
ǁ‖ Market stress – volume ! In 1995 CMBS issuance was $14 Billion ! In 2007 CMBS issuance was $230 Billion
ǁ‖ 88% of the entire CMBS portfolio was originated in the years 2005 - 2007
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WHY DID LOANS ORIGINATED IN 05, 06 AND 07 DEFAULT?
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$35 $49
$93
$130 $132
$6
$- $20 $40 $60 $80
$100 $120 $140
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
2011 - 2018
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CMBS MATURITIES
ǁ‖ How are we going to refinance all this?
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ǁ‖ Loan originator/ primary servicer ! Primary borrower interface
ǁ‖ ǁ‖ Master Servicer
! Has to be rated ! Has advancing obligations ! Typically a large bank
ǁ‖ Special Servicer ! Handles defaulted loans ! Is appointed by the CCR ! Top 3 control majority of the market
ǁ‖ Controlling class representative (“CCR”) ! Lowest rated bond holder at any given time ! Appoints the special servicer
ǁ‖ Rating agencies ! Rates the bonds and servicers
ǁ‖ Trustee ! Provides accounting, reporting and cash to the bond holders ! Is a back-up advancer if the Master servicer defaults
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THE PARTIES IN A CMBS STRUCTURE
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ǁ‖ Top 4 Servicers – servicing more than 80% of all CMBS loans
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WHO ARE THE SPECIAL SERVICERS?
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HISTORY OF CMBS DEFAULT RESOLUTION
$8.8
$39.5 $45.3 $44.3
$- $10.0 $20.0 $30.0 $40.0 $50.0
2009 2010 2011 2012
In billions
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CMBS RESOLUTION TYPES
Modification or Reinstated
54% Note Sale
9%
Foreclosure 11%
Loan Paid in Full 14%
DPO 12%
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ǁ‖ What Factors into the Special Servicer’s Decision to Modify or Foreclose?
! Current value of the property – LTV ǁ‖
! Remaining term of the loan ǁ‖
! Will value recover to appropriate LTV by maturity date ǁ‖
! NPV of the foreclosure alternative • Length of time to foreclose • Cash flow versus advances • Other considerations and costs
! Special servicer’s fee opportunities • Affiliates • Bond position
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MODIFY OR FORECLOSE?
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ǁ‖ Dodd Frank ! Risk retention ! Operating Advisor ! PCCRA
ǁ‖ Special servicer’s use of affiliates
ǁ‖ What 2.0 didn’t address ! REMIC restrictions on modifying loans ! Consistent approach to special servicer decisions
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CMBS 2.0
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ǁ‖ DSCR at Issuance
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HISTORY OF UNDERWRITING STANDARDS
0.00
0.50
1.00
1.50
2.00
2005 2006 2007 2008 2010 2011 2012
DSC
R
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ǁ‖ Underwriting back to ‘07’ levels ! Pro forma underwriting ! IO loans ! Mezz loans
ǁ‖ Defaults on 2012 originations
ǁ‖ How long will it take?
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BACK TO THE FUTURE
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ǁ‖ Resources: ! Brochure downloadable from our website
! Informational webinars on our website
! Recent Articles under the news tab on our website
! Videos on our website
! Operating advisor rating report downloadable from our website
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CONTACT INFORMATION AND RESOURCES
ǁ‖ 1ST SERVICE SOLUTIONS ǁ‖ 1701 W. Northwest Hwy., Suite 100 ǁ‖ Grapevine, TX 76051 ǁ‖ (817) 756-7227 ǁ‖ www.1stsss.com
Ann Hambly [email protected]