Climatechangein Galicia (NW Spain): Observations and ... · CLIMATE SYSTEM Climate is an...
Transcript of Climatechangein Galicia (NW Spain): Observations and ... · CLIMATE SYSTEM Climate is an...
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Climate change in Galicia (NW Spain): Observations
and projections for the XXIth Century
Juan José Taboada Hidalgo
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DEFINITIONS
Climate: Statistical description in
terms of average and variability of the
relevant measurements (rain,
temperature, wind …).
0
5
10
15
20
25
xan feb mar abr mai xuñ xull ago set out nov dec
Tª
(ºC
)
0
50
100
150
200
250
Pre
cip
itació
n (
mm
)
precipitación Tmin Tmax
Weather: Specific conditions of the atmosphere in a given time and
moment. It is expressed with parametres such as clouds, probability of rain,
temperature, humidity ….
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CLIMATE SYSTEM
Climate is an interactive system. It has 5 main components: Atmosphere, Hydrosphere, Cryosphere, earth surface and biosphere.
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NATURAL VARIABILY OF CLIMATE
•Continental drift
• Terrestrial orbit variation: Milankovich cycles
• Solar activity variations
•Volcanic activity
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NATURAL VARIABILITY
• The oxygen isotope ratio obtained from ice cores over the Antartic plateau show 4 glacial and interglacial periods over the past 400.000 years.
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Ciclos de Milankovitch
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NATURAL VARIABILITY
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NATURAL VARIABILITY
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Human beings could not influence of variables such as solar activity or earth orbit. Nevertheless we have an influence on internal variables such as atmospheric composition or earth surface.
ANTHROPOGENIc FORCING
During the last decades an increase in greenhouse gases concentration has been produced.
Moreover at a global scale a land use change has been done due to:
•Increasing urbanization.
•Deforestation.
•Land use for agriculture.
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GREENHOUSE EFFECT
Greenhouse effect is a natural process that takes place in the atmosphere, due to the presence of wavter vapour, CO2 and other chemical species. This natural effect maintains the earth with a temperature around 30ºC above the temperature of the earth without the atmosphere.
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IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change)
• The organization was created in 1989, by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) and the United Nations Environment Program (UNEP) as an effort by the United Nations to provide the governments of the world with a clear scientific view of what is happening to the world’s climate.
• It reviews and assesses the most recent scientific, technical and socio-economic information produced worldwide relevant to the understanding of climate change.
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Historical evolution of the results of the IPCC
FAR (1990) Emissions resulting from humanactivities are substantially increasingatmospheric concentration of greenhousegases
SAR (1995) The balance of evidence suggests a discernible human influence on global climate
TAR (2001) There is new and stronger evidence thatmost of the warming observed over thelast years is attributable to humanactivities
AR4(2007) It is highly likely (> 95%) that thewarming observed during the past half-century cannot be explained withoutexternal influences.
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Sea level changes
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Precipitations do not show a clear tendency
Siglo XX
1979-2005
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And, what about Galicia…????
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Objectives• In 2007, the Regional Government Department for the
Environment and Sustainable Development promoted aresearch project entitled “Analysis of the Evidence andImpacts of Climate Change in Galicia (CLIGAL)”.
• The project follows the line of IPCC.
• http://www.siam-cma.org/cligal/
• Main areas: – Climate evolution and climatological scenarios.
– Terrestrial ecosystems
– Marine pelagical ecosystems
– Litoral ecosystems
– Health
– Economy
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Participants in the CLIGAL project
• Consellería de Medio Ambiente (Lourizán y MeteoGalicia)• Consellería de Pesca e Asuntos Marítimos. CIMA• CETMAR• Instituto Español de Oceanografía (IEO)• Instituto Investigaciones Marinas e Inst. Invest. Agrobiológicas
(CSIC)• Universidade da Coruña• Universidade de Santiago de Compostela• Universidade de Vigo
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http://www.siam-cma.org/cligal/
Observations – Annual temperature
Increase 0.18 ºC / decade
Temperatura media anual
-1.5
-1.0
-0.5
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
1961
1964
1967
1970
1973
1976
1979
1982
1985
1988
1991
1994
1997
2000
2003
2006
ano
an
om
alía
(ºC
)
Non homogeneous along the
period:
More increase since 1972:
0.36ºC/decade
Máximum: Increase of 0.21 ºC / decade
Mínimum: Increase of 0.15 ºC / decade
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http://www.siam-cma.org/cligal/
Max: Increase of 0.36 ºC / decade
Min: Increase of 0.17 ºC / decade
Increase in spring more related with maximum temperatures
Increase of summer is more homogeneous. The increase in minimum
temperatures is more relevant than in the rest of the year.
Max: Increase of 0.24 ºC / decade
Min: Increase of 0.28 ºC / decade
The main increases take place in spring and summer
Observations – Annual temperature
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http://www.siam-cma.org/cligal/
-20.0
-15.0
-10.0
-5.0
0.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
20.0
25.0
30.0
1961
1964
1967
1970
1973
1976
1979
1982
1985
1988
1991
1994
1997
2000
2003
2006
an
om
alía
de
fre
cu
en
cia
Increase in spring (b=0.11**)
Increase in summer (b=0.10*)
HOT DAYS(temperatura máxima > p95)
-20.0
-15.0
-10.0
-5.0
0.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
20.0
25.0
30.0
35.0
1961
1964
1967
1970
1973
1976
1979
1982
1985
1988
1991
1994
1997
2000
2003
2006
an
om
alía
de
fre
cu
en
cia
Increase in spring (b=0.08*)
Increase in summer (b=0.18***)
HOT NIGTHS
(temperatura mínima > p95)
Observations – Extreme temperature
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http://www.siam-cma.org/cligal/
-20.0
-15.0
-10.0
-5.0
0.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
20.0
25.0
30.0
35.0
1961
1964
1967
1970
1973
1976
1979
1982
1985
1988
1991
1994
1997
2000
2003
2006
an
om
alía
de
fre
cu
en
cia
-20.0
-15.0
-10.0
-5.0
0.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
20.0
25.0
1961
1964
1967
1970
1973
1976
1979
1982
1985
1988
1991
1994
1997
2000
2003
2006
an
om
alía
de
fre
cu
en
cia
Decrease all along the year
Winter (b=-0.13**)
Spring (b=-0.16***)
Summer (b=-0.12**)
Autumn (b=-0.11)
COLD DAYS(temperatura máxima < p5)
COLD NIGHTS(temperatura mínima < p5)
Decrease in autumn (b=-0.08*)
Descenso en VERÁN (b=0.15**)
Observations – Extreme temperature
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Trends on temperature for the whole Iberian Peninsula
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http://www.siam-cma.org/cligal/
-2.0
-1.5
-1.0
-0.5
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
19
61
19
63
19
65
19
67
19
69
19
71
19
73
19
75
19
77
19
79
19
81
19
83
19
85
19
87
19
89
19
91
19
93
19
95
19
97
19
99
20
01
20
03
20
05
ano
ano
mal
ía p
reci
pit
ació
n
3640 43
52
54
66
95
96
125
138
150
157
182
204
216
218
223228
250
277
289
294
317
333
340349
352
30
1
2
3
No significant trend for annual precipitation
Observed trends at a monthly level(decrease in february, increase in october)
Possible change in distribution of
rain along the yearTrends observed for drougth index (SPI)(increase in drught in february-march)
Observations – Precipitation
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http://www.siam-cma.org/cligal/
Frecuencia de precipitación extrema - OTOÑO
-2.0
-1.0
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
1961
1964
1967
1970
1973
1976
1979
1982
1985
1988
1991
1994
1997
2000
2003
2006
an
om
alía
pre
cip
ita
ció
n
Frecuencia de precipitación extremas - PRIMAVERA
-2.0
-1.0
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
1961
1964
1967
1970
1973
1976
1979
1982
1985
1988
1991
1994
1997
2000
2003
2006
an
om
alía
pre
cip
ita
ció
n
Increase of extreme precipitation
(> p95) in autumn
Decrease of extreme precipitation
(> p95) in spring
Increase of southwestern
situations
Observations – Extreme Precipitation
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S S T 42ºN 10ºWy = 0.0131x - 10.489
R 2 = 0.6571
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 2020Año
ºC
S S T_ANUAL S S T_AB R -S E PS S T_OC T-MAR
T air 42ºN 11ºW y = 0.0105x - 5.4925
R 2 = 0.4772
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 2020Año
ºC
AT_ANUAL AT_AB R -S E PAT_OC T-MAR
Air Temperature (T air) and sea temperature (SST) COADS 42ºN 10ºW
Statistically significant increase of
SST.
More increase during upwelling
season.
The increase of SST is around
0.1ºC/decade
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Sea Level trend(1943- )
Sea level measured at
Coruña and Vigo harbours
since 1943 have increase
ata a rate 2.68 mm/year in
Vigo and 1.386 mm/year in
Coruña
The whole trend, taking into
account problems with
measurements of La Coruña
harbour is 2.254 mm/year
Estación Mareográfica Coruña (IEO)
niveles medios mensuales
tendencia= 1.386 mm/año
y = 0.1155x - 13.73
R2 = 0.0807-400
-300
-200
-100
0
100
200
300
400
1943
1948
1953
1958
1963
1968
1973
1978
1983
1988
1993
1998
2003
años
an
om
alía n
ivel m
ar
(mm
)
Estación Mareográfica Vigo (IEO)
niveles medios mensuales
tendencia= 2.68 mm/año
y = 0,2238x + 2445,4
R2 = 0,2291
-400
-300
-200
-100
0
100
200
300
400
1943
1948
1953
1958
1963
1968
1973
1978
1983
1988
1993
1998
2003
años
an
om
alía n
ivel m
ar
(mm
)
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http://www.siam-cma.org/cligal/
Some Consequences
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http://www.siam-cma.org/cligal/
• Delay in the first frost
• Early arrive of last frost
• Increase of the period without frost:
• Lavacolla : 52 days
• Lugo: 11 days
• Ourense: 38 days
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
19
70
-…
19
80
-…
19
90
-…
20
00
-…
Día
Xu
lian
o
Primeira Xeada
Última Xeada
LAVACOLLA
Evidences of climate changeFrost
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http://www.siam-cma.org/cligal/
IMPACTOS DO CAMBIO CLIMÁTICO
PREVISTOS PARA FINAIS DO SÉCULO XXIZona libre de xeadas
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http://www.siam-cma.org/cligal/
VINE-GROWINGEvolución das fenofases da Vitis vinifera: since 1970 Harvest is early by 15 days
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
1970-1971 1980-1981 1990-1991 2000-2001
Día
Xulia
no
GUILLAREI
FLORACIÓN
MADURACIÓN
RECOLECCIÓN
CAIDA DE LA HOJA
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
1970-1971 1980-1981 1990-1991 2000-2001
Día
Xulia
no
SALCEDO
FLORACIÓNMADURACIÓNRECOLECCIÓNCAIDA DE LA HOJALineal (FLORACIÓN)
Floración: 19 días en 30 anos
Maduración: 18 días en 30 anos
Colleita: 17 días en 30 anos
Caida da folla: sen cambio aparente
Floración: 18 días en 30 anos
Maduración: 18 días en 30 anos
Colleita: 15 días en 30 anos
Caida da folla: sen cambio aparente
Cambios nas fenofases da Vide (Vitis vinifera) desde 1970
Estación Fenofase Día Xuliano Data Anos Observados REGRESIÓN
fenolóxica analizada promedio promedio Nº Anos Desde Ata Pendente(1)
t(2)
Sig.
SALCEDO FLORACIÓN 163 11-jun 28 1970 2000 -0.624 -4.408 0.000*
MADURACIÓN 266 22-sep 25 1970 2000 -0.493 -2.991 0.007*
RECOLECCIÓN 271 27-sep 23 1970 2001 -0.605 -3.896 0.001*
CAIDA DE LA HOJA 319 14-nov 25 1970 2000 -0.335 -0.335 0.741**
GUILLAREI FLORACIÓN 160 08-jun 29 1970 2000 -0.656 -4.447 0.000*
MADURACIÓN 271 27-sep 26 1970 2001 -0.621 -4.503 0.000*
RECOLECCIÓN 271 27-sep 25 1970 2001 -0.598 -3.78 0.001*
CAIDA DE LA HOJA 323 18-nov 26 1970 2000 -0.022 -0.174 0.864**
(1)Pendentes en días/ano.(2)Valores dados como unha distribución t de Student.
* Valores con un 95% de probabilidade de significancia.
** Valores sen cambio aparente (t entre +1 y -1).
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http://www.siam-cma.org/cligal/
PHENOLOGY: SWALLOW
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
1970-1971 1980-1981 1990-1991 2000-2001
Día
Xulia
no
GUILLAREI
CHEGADA
EMIGRACIÓN
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
1970-1971 1980-1981 1990-1991 2000-2001
Día
Xulia
no
SALCEDO
CHEGADA
EMIGRACIÓN
Evolución da chegada e emigración das Anduriñas (Hirundo rustica) desde 1970
Cambios na chegada e emigracion da Anduriñas común (Hirundo rustica) desde 1970
Estación Fenofase Día Xuliano Data Anos Observados REGRESIÓN
fenolóxica analizada promedio promedio Nº Anos Desde Ata Pendente(1)
t(2)
Sig.
GUILLAREI CHEGADA 81 21-mar 30 1970 2001 -0.493 -2.192 0.037*
EMIGRACIÓN 259 15-sep 27 1970 2001 0.828 4.98 0.000*
SALCEDO CHEGADA 88 28-mar 30 1970 2001 -0.531 -1.826 0.079*
EMIGRACIÓN 254 10-sep 28 1970 2001 0.489 3.081 0.005*
(1)Pendentes en días/ano.(2)Valores dados como unha distribución t de Student.
* Valores con un 95% de probabilidade de significancia.
** Valores sen cambio aparente (t entre +1 y -1).
Arrival: 14 days earlier in 30 years
Migration: 24 días máis tarde en 30 years
Arrival: 15 days earlier in 30 years
Migration: 14 días later in 30 years
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Consequences on forests
• Increase in Mediterranean conditions (change in landscape for the
future).
• Fire risk increasing in the last decades.
• Some local species become weaker.
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And for the future…????
Projections for the XXIth century
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We use models of the climate system to forecast the behaviour of the climate
system under GHG concentration increase.
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We must take into account different scenarios and different models.
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Land areas are projected to warm more than the oceans with the greatest
warming at high latitudes
Annual mean temperature change, 2071 to 2100 relative to 1990: Global Average
in 2085 = 3.1oC
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Some areas are projected to become wetter, others drier with an overall
increase projected
Annual mean precipitation change: 2071 to 2100 Relative to 1990
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Regional Projections for the Iberian Peninsula
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Average
projections
considering 16
general
circulation
models for A2
scenario
Winter
Spring
Summer
Autumn
Year
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Average
projections
considering 16
regional models
for A2 scenario
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http://www.siam-cma.org/cligal/
Projections – Temperature. Scenario A1B. Regional model 25km
Increase of 1.5 ºC in 2050.
More increase in summer
(2.5ºC) and spring (2ºC).
More increase in maximum than
in minimum temperatures.
Minimum temperatures increase
in summer.
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http://www.siam-cma.org/cligal/
Increase in the frequency of hot days and nights
Decrease in the frequency of cold days nad nights
Trend is more marked in
summer, specially in hot
days.
Projections – Temperature. Scenario A1B. Regional model 25km
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http://www.siam-cma.org/cligal/
Decrease of precipitation in spring.
Increase in autumn and winter, with more episodes of extreme rainfall.
Increase of seasonality of rain.
Caveat: Precipitation is not well resolved in GCM´s. Therefore results for rainfall
do not have the same level of confidence.
At a sinoptical level models give a displacement to the north of the Hadley cell. As
a consequence the semi-permanent Azores high will be also displaced to the
north, with more drougths.
Projections – Precipitation. Scenario A1B. Regional model 25km
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Conclusions
• The increase of greenhouse gases concentration is causing a climate change that has its relevance on Galicia. The main points of this change are:
– Increase of temperature.
– Increase of sea level.
– Changes in intraannual precipitation.
– Changes on ecosystems.
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Conclusions• Changes will continue in the future, regardless
the strategy being adopted due to the persistence of GHG in the atmosphere.
• It is necessary to adopt the best combination of strategies of mitigation and adaptation from an economical, social and environmental viewpoints.
• The climate change problem is a problem concerning the transformation of the ways we generate and consume energy.
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Thank you very much for
your attention