Climate vulnerability profiling of Indian cities

Integrated Research and Action for Development

(IRADe),C-80, Shivalik, New Delhi-

110017

Introduction

Today India accounts for 17 per cent of the world’s population Urban population increased from 25.8 million to 377 million in 2011

Cities, with total population reaching in millions are becoming focal points for climate change impacts and urbanization in turn results in growing vulnerability to environmental hazards.

The net increase in annual temperatures in 2030s with respect to 1970s ranges between 1.7oC – 2.2oC, with extreme temperatures increasing by 1-4oCClimate change has impacted the frequency and intensities of the natural hazards

1950-1959 1960-1969 1970-1979 1980-1989 1990-1999 2000-20090

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

Bihar GujaratAndhraUttar PradeshWest Bengal

Axis Title

Occ

uren

ceDisaster events in India

Objectives:

1. To assist policy‐makers in assessing and responding to the risks associated with climate change in Indian cities.

2. To identify and characterize the hazards associated with climate change at the city‐level; (mainly JNNURM Cities)

3. Identify the most vulnerable population segments and ecosystems (people, locations, sectors) of the city; and

4. Assess the city’s ability or capacity to adapt to anticipated changes.

5. Developing a policy brief that includes specific recommendations on how to effectively mainstream climate resilience in various national level initiatives

Aim of the studyTo conduct an objective and comprehensive vulnerability Profiling of 20 Indian cities while assessing the climate change adaptation needs of the country .

20 Cities from 14 States are selected for study

• IRADe Assessment framework -HIGSMethodology

Variables DescriptionSocio- Economic CharacteristicsPopulationDensitySlum PopulationPercent of urban area (or population) susceptible to flooding.City % of national GDPHazard and extreme eventsTemperature observed trends and future projections Rainfall observed trend and projections.Extreme events(floods)Drought Infrastructure statusWater supplySewerageSolid waste managementStorm water drainageTransportationPowerHousingGovernance Administrative unit assigned to address climate change Willingness of City leadership to address climate change

Vulnerability Profiling Template for Each City

Case Study Delhi

Delhi is the capital state of India and an important power centre of the nation since the ages

Population in 2011 was 16.3 million In 2001, Delhi UA was home to a population of 13 million

Delhi is second highly populated city in India after Mumbai

Disaster Profile of the cityFlood frequency• Floods in Delhi are not

so much a natural phenomenon as is due to poor urban management and governance issue.

• This is very clear from the recurring phenomenon of floods in the river Yamuna and flash floods caused by rains due to choked drains of Delhi.

Flood vulnerability

The city has been experiencing floods of various magnitudes in the past due to floods in the Yamuna and the Najafgarh Drain system.

The Yamuna crossed its danger level (fixed at 204.83m) twenty five times during the last 33 years.

Since 1900, Delhi has experienced six major floods in the years 1924, 1947, 1976, 1978, 1988 and 1995 when peak level of Yamuna river was one meter or more above danger level of 204.49m at old rail bridge (2.66m above the danger level) occurred on sixth September 1978. The second record peak of 206.92m was on twenty seventh September 1988.

Year Enormity of damages

1977 Najafgarh drain experienced heavy floods due to discharge from the Sahibi River.

21 Dead, Crop damage worth Rs 10 million

1978: (September

)Widespread breaches occurred in rural embankments of Yamuna

The total damage to crops, houses and public utilities was estimated at Rs 176.1 million.

1988: (September

)

Yamuna experienced floods of very high magnitude, flooding many villages and localities

Over 8000 families affected

1995: (September

)

High floods following heavy runs in the upper catchmen area and resultant release of water from Tajewala water works.

15,000 families became homelessSource: http://delhi.gov.in/wps/wcm/connect/doit_dm/DM/Home/Vulnerabilities/Hazards/Floods

thirteen zones based on the flooding risk in relation to incremental rise in the water level of the Yamuna (DDA, 1993).

Cover a range from 199m to 212 m level of water in the Yamuna. This zoning map covers part of North Delhi on the West bank of the Yamuna

and almost the entire Trans Yamuna Area on the East bank. Besides this, the Delhi Flood Control Order has also divided NCT of Delhi into

four Flood Sectors, namely Sectors, namely, Shahadra; Wazirabad – Babrapur; Alipur; and Nangloi - Najafgarh sectors.

Overflow causing many monsoon related diseases.

Local Flooding • Increasing during recent years. Urban areas are characterized by a high area

under impervious surfaces (Roads, pavements, houses etc). High surface water run-off rates resulting in loss of soft landscape This results

in flash floods in the low-lying areas even after moderate precipitation. Flooding due to the city's 18 major drains has also become a common

phenomenon. Already under the pressure of the city's effluent discharge, these drains experience reverse flow from the Yamuna.

Source: http://www.delhi.gov.in/DoIT/DOIT_DM/risks%20and%20vulnerability-1.pdf

Flood Zoning

Settlement Pattern in Flood Plain High-risk zones have high population densities and sub standard housing structures. These

include areas of North Delhi, and Trans Yamuna Area.

Families living in the villages and unauthorized colonies within the river-bed are exposed

to the highest risk from floods. There are over 15,000 such families, having over 75,000

persons.

Direct effect of floods in the river Yamuna and the city's network of drains, affects the

population living in the Yamuna River-bed.

Local flash floods and water logging increased surface run-off due to high ratio of hard

surfaces leading to flash floods.

Risk of break in embankments: Protection from the river by embankments leads to a false

sense of safety and development starts taking place in the shadow of these embankments.Sources:Delhi CDP, October, 2006, Department of Urban Development Government of Delhi, IL&FS Ecosmart Limited, New Delhi http://www.delhi.gov.in/DoIT/DOIT_DM/risks%20and%20vulnerability-1.pdf

Institutional frameworkThe institutional framework for urban management in Delhi has a multiplicity of

agencies, both central and state. The institutions/agencies are categorized as (A) Central Government Agencies; (B) State Government Agencies.

Issues StatusNational Functions versus local functions

Delhi, being the National capital, has to serve certain functions directly under the jurisdiction of Central Government. These clashes with the establishment of an effective local government incorporating citizen’s participation.

Implementation of 74th CAA

Government of National Capital Territory of Delhi has implemented the 74thAmendment to the Constitution.

Overlapping of jurisdiction

There is a lack of clarity over departmental responsibilities for land use planning, development, maintenance and enforcement. This has resulted in ineffective and uncoordinated decision making and actions. For eg., the boundaries of the revenue districts and the MCD zones do not match

Overlapping of functions

Delhi Development Authority (DDA) has failed to identify and coordinate with the State Government.

Other Infrastructure Sectors

Multiplicity of Organizations Lack of coordination and no common data base for management Conflicting and overlapping jurisdictions e.g.: three different agencies are responsible for storm water drainage in the city

Source: Delhi CDP, October, 2006, Department of Urban Development Government of Delhi, IL&FS Ecosmart Limited, New Delhi

Emerging issues in the city

While Delhi is making progress towards climate mitigation through emission reductions and environmental improvements, there is a significant lack of awareness and planning about the issues of adaptation to climate change.

Mehrotra et al (2009) note that Delhi’s response so far is often project oriented hence various incentives (i.e. subsidies and grants) have been effective for initiating projects,

Rainwater harvesting systems installation subsidies have ‐created demand Such experiences hold the potential to inform adaptation efforts as well.

Delhi’s local efforts will need to be reconciled with regional and national priorities.

HAZARD Sources

Temperature observed trends and future projections

Slight warming since 1900,; 2006 lowest temperature .2*C since 1935; ; 44.9°C, highest recorded temp in 2007; 1.5°C to 2.5°C projected warming

Center for Climate Systems Research, Columbia University as cited in Mehrotra et al 2009

Rainfall observed trend and projections

14mm per decade increase since 1900 with large variability, projected change uncertain

Center for Climate Systems Research, Columbia University and IMD, Regional Meteorological Center, Delhi as cited in Mehrotra et al 2009

Extreme events

Extreme precipitation July 1994, July 1995, June 2003, Sep 2011; extreme temperature May 1978, April 1988, May 1996; faces inland flooding due to intense precipitation during monsoons

EXPOSURE

Population 16 million; 500,000 added per year

Census 2001 (update this with Census 2011)

Density 1,400/km2

Poor Population 1.5 million live below poverty line; 45% live in unregulated settlements

Delhi’s Vulnerability

ADAPTIVE CAPACITY Institutions and governance measures affecting climate change actions

National corruption perception index (NCPI) as measured by Transparency International

Willingness of City leadership to address climate change

Key steps taken by the Government of Delhi : public transport uses world’s largest fleet of CNG ; introduction of BRTS, and Delhi Metro Member C40 Large Cities Climate Leadership Group; People action for right to clean air; Supreme Court judgment requiring fuel switch in public transport;

Analysis of climate risks of the city National action plan on climate change prepared in June 2008, Delhi is the first state to come up with an action plan to tackle climate change, in line with the Prime Minister's National Action Plan for Climate Change (NAPCC), The plan identifies 65 actions to be taken in various fields like solar mission, energy effi ciency, green I ndia, water conservation, sustainable habitat and others in 2009-2012.

Administrative unit assigned to address climate change

Mitigation and adaptation effort led by the MOEF and Delhi CM office

Contd…………… Delhi’s Vulnerability

A Comparative Overview

Vulnerability Matrix

S.No. Classification City Name

Hazards Infrastructure    

Drought

Flooding

Landslides

Cyclones

Heat / cold waves

Water supply

Sewerage

Drainage MSW

Population base in 2011

 Categorization of cities on basis of population

( million)

1

Coastal

Kolkata Y Y   Y Y Y   Y Y 141 A2 Mumbai   Y Y Y       Y   184 A3 Chennai Y Y   Y Y         8.6 A4 Surat Y Y   Y       Y   4.5 A

5 Visakhapatnam Y Y   Y Y   Y Y   1.7 B

6 Thiruvananthpuram   Y   Y       Y Y 1.6 B7 Kochi Y Y   Y Y   Y Y Y 2.1 B8 Puri Y Y   Y   Y Y Y Y 0.2 C9

Hill

Srinagar   Y Y   Y   Y Y Y 1.2 B10 Shilong   Y Y   Y   Y Y Y 0.3 C11 Dehradun   Y Y   Y   Y Y   0.7 C12

Riverine

Hyderabad Y Y     Y Y Y Y   7.7 A13 Delhi Y Y     Y     Y Y 16.3 A14 Ahmedabad Y Y   Y Y     Y   6.3 A15 Allahabad Y Y     Y   Y Y Y 1.2 B16 Haridwar Y Y Y   Y       Y 0.3 C17

Mixed

Bengaluru Y Y     Y Y   Y   8.5 A18 Jodhpur Y       Y     Y Y 1.1 B19 Indore Y Y     Y     Y   2.1 B20   Bhubaneswar Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y 0.8 C

Total Vulnerable cities Cities 15 19 6 10 16 5 9 18 11    Total (%)   75 95 30 50 80 25 45 90 55    

     

Vulnerable

Vulnerable

Vulnerable

Vulnerable

Vulnerable

Issues Issues Issues Issues

 Categorisation of cities on basis of population> 4 million = A 1-4 million. = B.

<1 million = C

Key Findings

Drought 23%

Flooding 29%

Landslides 9%

Cyclones 15%

Heat / cold waves 24%

Percetage of Cities Vulnerable to Different Type of Natural Hazards

Water supply 12%

Sewerage 21%

Drainage 42%

MSW 26%

Percentage of Cities Facing Issues in services

Most of the cities are vulnerable to floods and droughts. this is mainly due to drainage issues in the cities .

Maximum number of cities faces issues with municipal solid waste management

Sewage collection and treatment is another major issue faced by the cities

Hazards exposure M

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Kolk

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Beng

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Har

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Landslides Cyclone Drought Flood

AmritsarLudhianaVaranasiMathuraKolkataAsansol

FaridabadVijaywada

PatnaAgra

SuratLucknow

ThiruvananthapuramCochin

AhmedabadAllahabadGuwahatiVadodara

MeerutNainitalImphalKanpur

BhuvneshwarVishakapatnam

Delhi

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100

% of Flood Prone JNNURM Cities

Flood prone cities in India

Social AspectsM

umba

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Del

hi

Kolk

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Chen

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Beng

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Hyd

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Ahm

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Har

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Puri

-

2,000,000

4,000,000

6,000,000

8,000,000

10,000,000

12,000,000

14,000,000

16,000,000

18,000,000

20,000,000

Population in 2001 Population in 2011

Thir

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apur

am

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Koch

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Beng

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patn

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Del

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Alla

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Mum

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Kolk

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0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

Decadal Growth of population 2001-2011(in percentage)

Source: IRADe Analysis 2012 (data source-census 2011)

InfrastructureTh

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pura

m

Sura

t

Del

hi

Jodh

pur

Mum

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Koch

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Hyd

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Bang

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Bhub

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Indo

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Kolk

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Puri

165 147 144 135 135 130 122 107 9676 73

42 38

Per capita Water Supply

Surat

HaridwarMumbaiJodhpur

ThiruvanathpuramBengaluru

Delhi

IndoreHyderabadAllahabad

KolkataVishakhapatnam

0.0 20.0 40.0 60.0 80.0 100.0 120.0100.0

78.877.9

38.9

38.536.9

33.2

32.622.0

18.5

15.614.8

Percentage of sewerage treated 2. Mega city like Kolkata is in critical stage

3. Cities with population more than million provide less than 135lpcd

4. Most of the cities has less than 50% of sewerage treated

1. There are only three cities with water supply above 135 lpcd

1. Most of the cities have poor storm water drainage system

Hyderabad

Delhi

Trivendrum

Surat

Kochi

Bhubaneshwar

Jodhpur

Indore

Bangalore

Vishakhapatnam

Puri

351

206

180

128

104

81

68

45

31

22

15

Incidences of water logging and flooding

2. In 2010-2011 most of the cities have experienced flood and water logging incidences more than 80 times

Strom Water Drainage

3. Hyderabad has experienced maximum number of water logging and urban flooding in 2010-2011

• Flood Moderation and maintaining water bodies:

• Reduce non-climate stressors• Conduct medium- and long-term planning• To put Climate resilient agenda on the

priority list• Capacity building at local, national levels

Recommendations &The Way Forward

The way forward

The Central Government has initiated various measures for assisting the States in the management of floods, this includes:

(i) There was setting up of the Rashtriya Barh Ayog in 1976 to look into the flood problem and suggest remedial measures. Based on its recommendations, flood management strategy in the country was formulated and forwarded to all the concerned States;

(ii) Constitution of the Ganga Flood Control Commission in 1972 for the Ganga Basin States covering all the 23 river systems of Ganga;

(iii) Constitution of the Brahmaputra Board fix flood management covering the rivers Brahmaputra, Bar and their major tributaries;

(iv) Formulation of the National Water Policy, 2002, which has recommended fix the preparation of basin-wise Master Plans for flood management and control and for providing adequate flood cushion in the reservoir projects;

(v) Constitution of a Task Force in 2004 for Flood management and Erosion Control in Assam and its neighboring States as well as Bihar, West Bengal and Eastern Uttar Pradesh.

(vi) A State Sector Scheme of the Ministry of Water Resources ‘Flood Management Programme” with an outlay of Rs,80 billion has been approved by the Central Government. in November, 2007, for providing Central assistance to the State Government for critical flood management and erosion control works.

• Vulnerability assessment of

JNNURM cities at the state level

Incorporation of DRR into Project Life Cycle

(PLC)

Strategic Role of ULBs in implementing

sustainable Habitat Mission.

Incorporation of prudent climate

resilient plan into City Development Plan &

Master Plan

Climate Resilience Plan Development of State / Regional