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Climate Variability and Climate Change in the U.S.-Mexico Border Region Upper San Pedro Partnership...
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Climate Variability and Climate Change in the U.S.-Mexico Border Region Upper San Pedro Partnership Technical Committee Meeting Cochise College – Sierra Vista, Arizona – July 26, 2007 Gregg Garfin Climate Assessment for the Southwest Institute for the Study of Planet Earth
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Transcript of Climate Variability and Climate Change in the U.S.-Mexico Border Region Upper San Pedro Partnership...
Climate Variability and Climate Change
in the U.S.-Mexico Border Region
Upper San Pedro PartnershipTechnical Committee Meeting
Cochise College – Sierra Vista, Arizona – July 26, 2007
Gregg GarfinClimate Assessment for the SouthwestInstitute for the Study of Planet EarthUniversity of Arizona
Atmospheric Circulation: Winter
H
Mike Crimmins, University of Arizona
Atmospheric Moisture: Winter
DRY
MOIST
Mike Crimmins, University of Arizona
Atmospheric Circulation: Winter
H
Mike Crimmins, University of Arizona
Atmospheric Circulation: Summer
BermudaHigh
H
Mike Crimmins, University of Arizona
Atmospheric Moisture: Summer
DRY
MOIST
Mike Crimmins, University of Arizona
75° N
60° N
45° N
30° N
15° N
0°
15° S
30° S 30 ° E
90° N
30 ° W 60 ° W 90 ° W 120° W 150° W 180° W 150° E 120° E 90 ° E 0 °
PPacificDDecadalOOscillation
AAtlanticMMultidecadalOOscillation
EEl NNiño SSouthern OOscillation
Persistent Circulation Influences on Western US
Slide courtesy of Julio Betancourt, USGS
• Redistribute energy, moisture• Persistent changes: Duration 1-3 years• Recur every 2-7 years
El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO)
warm
cool
cool
warm
~ ~
Slide courtesy of Greg McCabe, USGS
El Niño: Winter Effects U.S.• Increased ephemeral channel recharge
Source: NOAA Climate Prediction Center http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/ensocycle/winter25%25.gif
La Niña: Winter Effects U.S.
• Drought circulation pattern
Source: NOAA Climate Prediction Center http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/ensocycle/winter25%25.gif
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
-3.0 -2.0 -1.0 0.0 1.0 2.0 3.0
Average SOI (Jun-Nov)
Win
ter
Pre
cip
ita
tio
n (
No
v-A
pr)
(i
nc
he
s)
El Niño
Neutral
La Niña
Climate Division 7Southeastern Arizona
1895-2002
Pacific Decadal Variability
• Discovered in 1990s• Occurs every 20-30
years• Mechanism likely
– ENSO– Kuroshio Current– Aleutian Low
Courtesy of N. Mantua – University of WashingtonMantua et al., 1997 Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society
91 84
82
8779 78
78
Negative PDO
113117
131
115123 119
120
Positive PDO
AZ PDO (Oct.-Sept.) Precipitation % Average
Based on Maxwell and Holbrook, NWS Tucson
http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/oa/climate/research/teleconnect/teleconnect.html
http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/oa/climate/research/teleconnect/teleconnect.html
Shift toLow Index?
Positive AMO Phase
Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation - AMO
Slide courtesy of Greg McCabe, USGS
• West: Warm, dry, high pressure• Associated with 1950s and late-1500s droughts
Pacific negative + Atlantic positive
.
McCabe et al., 2004 Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences
.
Drought Frequency % (25 = expected)
high drought frequencylow drought frequency
OBSERVED CHANGES
Global Energy Balance
From http://www.bom.gov.au
http://www.grida.no/climate/vitalafrica/english/09.htm
380
Most rapid change in the last 10,000 years
280
CO2 Changes
http://www.grida.no/climate/vital/02.htm
http://lwf.ncdc.noaa.gov/oa/climate/research/anomalies/anomalies.html
Western Regional Climate Center
June-May Temperature
Cochise County
Western Regional Climate Center
June-May Precipitation
Cochise County
Courtesy of Noah Knowles, USGS
Trends in Nov-Mar Snowfall Fraction
More Rain, Less Snow More Snow, Less Rain
Dramatic Warming Episodes
Losses of 30-60%
Stewart et al. 2005 Journal of Climate
Stewart et al. 2005 Journal of Climate
Stewart et al. 2005 Journal of Climate
PROJECTIONS
GCM
• Models, based on physics– Atmosphere, ocean
• Some processes must be estimated, scaled to large regions
• Processes tuned and validated using historical data
• Models driven by forcing factors– Solar, volcanic, GHGs, aerosols (particles)
Scenario descriptions
Global integration Regionalism
Economic emphasis
A1B Balanced energy
A2 fragmente
dA1FI Fossil-fuel Intensive
A1T high-Tech renewables
Environmental emphasis B1 B2 local
IPCC 3rd Assessment Report
Data: IPCC 4th Assessment
IPCC 4th Assessment: Working Group I, Chapter 11, Regional Projections
Annual Temperature: End of 21st Century
Annual Precipitation: End of 21st Century
IPCC 4th Assessment: Working Group I, Chapter 11, Regional Projections
Atmospheric Circulation: Winter
H
Atmospheric Circulation: Winter
H
A1B
A1B
A1B
A1B
Heat Waves
Diffenbaugh et al., 2005Proceedings of the National Academy of Science
Increased Length of Average Heat Wave (days)
4 models and A2 “Business as Usual” emissions scenarios in a Regional Climate Model
2071-2095Minus1961-1985
Diffenbaugh et al., 2005Proceedings of the National Academy of Science
Annual Evapotranspiration
A2
Diffenbaugh et al., 2005Proceedings of the National Academy of Science
Increased Fraction of Extreme Precipitation
A2
What does global warming have in store for El Niño?
• Latest word: Study comparing 20 different climate models
• No clear consensus!• Models still do not
simulate El Niño well…• “Best” models showed
smallest changes
More La Niña-like
More El Niño-like
Collins, 2005, Climate Dynamics
Climate Change Water Challenges in the Arizona-Sonora Border Region
Increased temperatures: very likelyDecreased precipitation: likely
Potential direct impacts and concerns:• Decreased surface water supply reliability• Increased evaporation• Reduced minimum flows for fish• Earlier peak flow timing• Greater likelihood of extreme events: drought, flood
Incorporating Climate Into Streamflow Prediction
• Statistical models (PPT, SWE, Streamflow)• Historical data are assumed to be a sample of future events
• Ensemble streamflow prediction (ESP)• Conceptual hydrologic models
• Soil moisture accounting, Snow model• Current basin initial states• Multiple meteorological inputs
• TEM, PPT, Estimated Upstream flow• Probabilistic distribution of future events, daily data aggregated to seasonal water volume
Franz et al., Journal of Hydrometeorology, 2005
Incorporating Climate Into Streamflow Prediction
• Force models with data adjusted for seasonal outlook terciles, or ENSO, PDO, AMO phases• Assumptions
• Historical data are representative of future states• Accurate understanding of processes and their sensitivities to climate variations
Dennis Lettenmaier, University of Washington
Gregg GarfinClimate Assessment for the SouthwestInstitute for the Study of Planet Earth
www.ispe.arizona.edu/climashttp://www.climate.noaa.gov/cpo_pa/risa/
