Climate trends, regional and national climate change projections
Climate Trends in the Phils_PAGASA
description
Transcript of Climate Trends in the Phils_PAGASA
Current Climate Trends in the
Philippines
PAGASA - DOST
How’s The Climate Changing In The Philippines?
• In the Philippines, there are already trends of increasing number of hot days and warm nights, but decreasing number of cold days and cool nights. Both maximum and minimum temperatures are generally getting warmer.
• Other extreme weather/climate events like intense rains have been more frequent.
Observed 24-hour rainfall – 455mm
TY Reming (DURIAN) Nov 2006
Typhoon Frank (Fengshen)
June 21, 2008. (MV Princess of the Stars) TY Milenyo, Sept 2006
Landslide :Ginsaugon, Feb 2006
ORMOC FLASHFLOOD
November 1991
PANAON ISLAND FLASHFLOOD
Dec 2003
INFANTA & AURORA FLASHFLOOD
Dec 2004
ST. BERNARD LANDSLIDE
Feb 2006
Typhoon Frank (Fengshen) June 21, 2008. (MV Princess of the Stars) www.
Typhoon Durian [Reming]
Nov. 2006
Typhoon “Frank”
June 2008
T. Storm Ketsana [Ondoy] &
Typhoon Parma [Pepeng]
Sept. and Oct. 2009
Storm surge in Manila Bay Typhoon Pedring & Quiel (Sept 2011)
Floodings due to storm surge
generated by Typhoon Pedring.
Floodings
in Central
Luzon
T. STORM TS SENDONG
Dec 2011
CDO & ILIGAN
TRENDS: -Temperature
-Rainfall Intensity -Tropical Cyclones
0.648
almost 3 times increase in maximum
temperatures
Trend in the frequency of days with maximum temperature above the 1961-1990 mean 99th percentile
(Hot days).
Trend in the frequency with minimum temperature above the 1961-1990 mean 99th percentile
(Warm nights)
Trend in the frequency with Maximum temperature above the 1961-1990 mean 1st percentile
Cool Days
Trend in the frequency with minimum temperature above the 1961-1990 mean 1st percentile
Cold nights
*Cinco,T.A.,et al.(2006). Updating Tropical Cyclone climatology in the PAR., Phil. Met-Hydro Congress 2006.
y = -0.0223x + 20.124
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
1948 1953 1958 1963 1968 1973 1978 1983 1988 1993 1998 2003 2008
Num
ber o
f Tro
pica
l Cyc
lone
s
Year
Annual Number of Tropical Cyclones in the PARPeriod: 1948-2010
Number of Tropical Cyclones
Five-year running mean
Linear (Five-year running mean)
)
17 13 9 1134
48
126 130111
7144 3610 6 9 18
30
46
80 6777
88
87
47
0
50
100
150
200
250
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Num
ber o
f Tro
pica
lCyc
lone
s
Number of Landfalling TC's
Number of non-Landfalling TC's
Monthly
Mean 0.5 0.3 0.3 0.5 1.1 1.6 3.4 3.3 3.1 2.7 2.2 1.4
1951-1960 1961-1970 1971-1980 1981-1990 1991-2000 2001-2010
18.5 20.5 20.4 19.8 18.3 18.4
17.0
17.5
18.0
18.5
19.0
19.5
20.0
20.5
21.0
Nu
mb
er o
f
Tro
pic
al
Cy
clo
ne
s
10 years Mean No. of T.C.
Comparison of 10-year mean number of Tropical Cyclone in the Philippines
1951-1980 1961-1990 1971-2000 2001-2010
19.8 20.2 19.5 18.8
18.0
18.5
19.0
19.5
20.0
20.5
Nu
mb
er o
f T
ro
pic
al
Cy
clo
ne
s
30 years Mean
No. of T.C.
Comparison of 30-year mean number of Tropical Cyclone in the Philippines
1981-2010
Neutral Year
El Niño Year La Niña Year
Tracks during ENSO and
None-ENSO
1951-1960 1961-1970 1971-1980 1981-1990 1991-2000 2001-2010
Neutral 101 106 87 108 79 100
El Niño 25 40 35 48 57 60
La Niña 59 59 82 42 47 24
Total 185 205 204 198 183 184
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
No.
of T
c
Decadal Number of Tropical cyclones by ENSO Category (1948-2010)
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Nuetral 9 13 16 17 37 53 114 114 82 62 63 35
El Nino 4 0 1 3 7 22 50 40 50 34 32 22
La Nina 14 6 2 10 17 16 43 47 55 62 41 22
0
20
40
60
80
100
120N
o. o
f Tc
Monthly number of Tropical cyclone by Category (1948-2010)
(9TCs) 1987
(10TCs) 2004
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
1971 1975 1979 1983 1987 1991 1995 1999 2003 2007
Fre
qu
en
cy o
f T
C
Year
Number of Extreme Typhoons Iin the PAR (with maximum sustain winds of 150 kph and above)Period: 1971-2009
Nuetral year
El Niño year
La Niña year
TRENDS IN TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE PHILIPPINES
0
50
100
150
200
250
Luzon Visayas Mindanao
Nu
mb
er 51-80
61-90
71-00
LUZON VISAYAS MINDANAO
19
51
-80
19
61
-90
19
71
-00
Trends in the Number of TC
Extreme Climate variability (ENSO of 2010)
Rainfall Maps
Dec. 2009
Oct. 2009
Nov. 2009
Sept. 2009
Jan. 2010
Mar. 2010
Feb. 2010
Black areas: Excessive rains
Red areas: rainfall deficit
-1500
-1000
-500
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
1865
1870
1875
1880
1885
1890
1895
1900
1905
1910
1915
1920
1925
1930
1935
1940
1955
1960
1965
1970
1975
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
2005
Rain
fall
Amou
nt (m
m)
Rainfall Anomaly in ManilaPeriod: 1865-2009 (departure from 1971 to 2000 normal values)
Rainfall Anomaly (from 1971-2000)
5 yr moving ave
Linear (5 yr moving ave)
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
1901-1930 1911-1940 1951-1980 1961-1990 1971-2000 1981-2009
Comparison of 30 years Average Mean Rainfall for Manila
y = 0.02x + 26.516
25.0
25.5
26.0
26.5
27.0
27.5
28.0
28.5
29.0
29.5
30.0
1901
1906
1911
1916
1921
1926
1931
1936
1949
1954
1959
1964
1969
1974
1979
1984
1989
1994
1999
2004
2009
Mea
n Tem
pera
ture
(°C)
YEAR
Annual Mean Temperature (°C) Manila (1901 - 2009)
Annual Mean Temperature
5-year moving average
Linear (5-year moving average)
An increase of 2.18 C from 1901-2009 (109 years)
1901-1930 1911-1940 1951-1980 1961-1990 1971-2000 1981-2009
Manila 26.9 27.2 27.6 27.8 28.1 28.3
26.0
26.5
27.0
27.5
28.0
28.5
Tem
pe
aru
tre
°C
Comparison of the 30-years average of MeanTemperature for Manila
• Over the last 60years (1951 to 2010), the average (mean) annual temperature in the Philippines has risen by about 0.648 °C.
• There is significant increase in the number of hot days and warm nights and decreasing trend in the number of cold days and cold nights.
• Overall, no evident increase or decrease of annual rainfall observed in the Philippines, but;
– increasing trend in the frequency of extreme rainfall events,
– increasing trend in the intensity of extreme rainfall.
• The mean number of tropical cyclones during the last two decades (1991-2000 & 2000-2010) have been less compared to past decades.
http://www.pagasa.dost.gov.ph
0001 > AMANG / TD / 2011 / 040312 to 040412
0002 > BEBENG / TS / 2011 / 050612 to 051100
0003 > CHEDENG / TY / 2011 / 052218 to 052806
0004 > DODONG / TS / 2011 / 060900 to 061000
0005 > EGAY / TS / 2011 / 061618 to 062006
0006 > FALCON / TS / 2011 / 062100 to 062418
0007 > GORING / TD / 2011 / 070906 to 071000
0008 > HANNA / TD / 2011 / 071506 to 071600
0009 > INENG / TY / 2011 / 071703 to 071712
0010 > JUANING / TS / 2011 / 072500 to 072800
0011 > KABAYAN / TY / 2011 / 072806 to 080418
0012 > LANDO / TD / 2011 / 073106 to 080106
0013 > MINA / TY / 2011 / 082112 to 082912
0014 > NONOY / TS / 2011 / 090800 to 090818
0015 > ONYOK / TD / 2011 / 091206 to 091300
0016 > PEDRING / TY / 2011 / 092406 to 092806
0017 > QUIEL / TY / 2011 / 092818 to 100212
0018 > RAMON / TS / 2011 / 101000 to 101400
0019 > SENDONG / TS / 2011 / 121500 to 121812
Frequency of Tropical Cyclones in the Philippines (1948-2005)
Northern Luzon is
most frequently hit
by tropical
cyclones followed
by Catanduanes
and Northern
Samar and least in
the Mindanao area.
Average tropical cyclone tracks (1948-2005)