Climate System Monitoring
description
Transcript of Climate System Monitoring
![Page 1: Climate System Monitoring](https://reader035.fdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062410/568159e9550346895dc7364d/html5/thumbnails/1.jpg)
Climate System Monitoring
Shotaro TanakaChief of climate diagnosis
Climate Prediction Division of JMA
![Page 2: Climate System Monitoring](https://reader035.fdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062410/568159e9550346895dc7364d/html5/thumbnails/2.jpg)
Contents
1. Introduction
2. Monitoring of Tropical Conditions
3. Features of El Nino/La Nina events
4. Mudden Julian Oscillation (MJO)
5. Asian Summer Monsoon
6. Products
7. Climate Diagnostic Meeting
8. Future Plans
![Page 3: Climate System Monitoring](https://reader035.fdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062410/568159e9550346895dc7364d/html5/thumbnails/3.jpg)
1. Introduction
Purposes
• To understand current condition of the climate system
• To provide the climate system information
• To explain unusual weather• To improve the long-range weather forecast
![Page 4: Climate System Monitoring](https://reader035.fdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062410/568159e9550346895dc7364d/html5/thumbnails/4.jpg)
Data
Atmospheric Circulation :
Objective Analysis Data produced in JMA
ERA-15 for climatological normal
Tropical Convection :
Outgoing longwave radiation (OLR) from NOAA
SST : Analysis Data produced in JMA
Snow cover and Sea Ice :
Observations with SSM/I onboard the DMSP polar orbiting satellites from NOAA
![Page 5: Climate System Monitoring](https://reader035.fdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062410/568159e9550346895dc7364d/html5/thumbnails/5.jpg)
Focusing Points of Monitoring and Analysis
• Difference from Climatological Normal
• Seasonal March
• Variations (MJO, ENSO, etc.)
• Influence of the Tropics to the Extratropics
• Ocean-Atmosphere Interaction
![Page 6: Climate System Monitoring](https://reader035.fdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062410/568159e9550346895dc7364d/html5/thumbnails/6.jpg)
2. Monitoring of Tropical Conditions 3-month Mean Sea Surface Temperature (SST) in DJF
Current SST (DJF 2002/2003)
Normal SST (DJF)
![Page 7: Climate System Monitoring](https://reader035.fdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062410/568159e9550346895dc7364d/html5/thumbnails/7.jpg)
3-month Mean SST in JJA
Current SST (JJA 2003)
Normal SST (JJA)
![Page 8: Climate System Monitoring](https://reader035.fdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062410/568159e9550346895dc7364d/html5/thumbnails/8.jpg)
3-Month Mean SST Anomaly (DJF and JJA 2003)
SSTA (Jun-Aug2003)
SSTA (Dec2002-Feb2003)
![Page 9: Climate System Monitoring](https://reader035.fdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062410/568159e9550346895dc7364d/html5/thumbnails/9.jpg)
Tropical Convective Activity
Jan.
Jul.
Intertropical Convergence ZoneActive Convection Area
OLR(Outgoing Longwave Radiation, W/m2)
![Page 10: Climate System Monitoring](https://reader035.fdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062410/568159e9550346895dc7364d/html5/thumbnails/10.jpg)
Seasonal March of Tropical Convection
Africa Southeast Asia South America
Jan. Feb. Mar. Apr. May Jun. Jul. Aug. Sep. Oct. Nov. Dec.
![Page 11: Climate System Monitoring](https://reader035.fdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062410/568159e9550346895dc7364d/html5/thumbnails/11.jpg)
3-Month Mean OLR Anomaly (DJF and JJA 2003)
OLRA (Jun-Aug2003)
OLRA (Dec2002-Feb2003)
![Page 12: Climate System Monitoring](https://reader035.fdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062410/568159e9550346895dc7364d/html5/thumbnails/12.jpg)
Normal Condition of Tropical Circulation (January)
Stream Function at 200-hPa
Stream Function at 850-hPa
H
H HH
H
H H
HH H
L
Walker Circulation
Subtropical Jet
![Page 13: Climate System Monitoring](https://reader035.fdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062410/568159e9550346895dc7364d/html5/thumbnails/13.jpg)
Normal Condition of Tropical Circulation (July)
Stream Function at 200-hPa
Stream Function at 850-hPa
H H
HH
H H
H HH
L
Tibetan High
Monsoon Westerlies
Mid-Pacific Trough
Monsoon Trough
![Page 14: Climate System Monitoring](https://reader035.fdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062410/568159e9550346895dc7364d/html5/thumbnails/14.jpg)
From CPC/NOAA Home Page
Tropical Convection and Walker Circulation
Walker Circulation :Vertical-ZonalCirculation alongthe equator
![Page 15: Climate System Monitoring](https://reader035.fdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062410/568159e9550346895dc7364d/html5/thumbnails/15.jpg)
Zonal Mean Fields
January 2003 July 2003
![Page 16: Climate System Monitoring](https://reader035.fdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062410/568159e9550346895dc7364d/html5/thumbnails/16.jpg)
REGION D(14N-EQ,130-150E)
REGION A(4N-4S,160E-150W)
REGION B(4N-4S,150-90W)
REGION C(EQ-10S,90-80W)
SST Indices
20021999 20001998 2001 2003Red Shading : El Nino phaseBlue Shading : La Nina phase
1993 1994 1995 1996 1997
![Page 17: Climate System Monitoring](https://reader035.fdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062410/568159e9550346895dc7364d/html5/thumbnails/17.jpg)
SOI
DARWIN
TAHITI
Southern Oscillation
2001
Red Shading : El Nino phaseBlue Shading : La Nina phase
SOI(Southern Oscillation Index) = (SLP at Tahiti) - (SLP at Darwin)
1997 1998 1999 2000 2002 20031993 1994 1995 1996
![Page 18: Climate System Monitoring](https://reader035.fdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062410/568159e9550346895dc7364d/html5/thumbnails/18.jpg)
OLR Indices
OLR-PH
OLR-MC
OLR-DL
1997 1998 1999 2000
2001 2002
OLR indices: area-averaged OLR anomaly
1993 1994 1995 1996 2003
![Page 19: Climate System Monitoring](https://reader035.fdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062410/568159e9550346895dc7364d/html5/thumbnails/19.jpg)
Equatorial Zonal Wind Indices
U200-IN
U850-CP
U850-EP
U850-WP
U200-CP
1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 20021993 1994 1995 1996 2003
![Page 20: Climate System Monitoring](https://reader035.fdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062410/568159e9550346895dc7364d/html5/thumbnails/20.jpg)
El Nino (Dec.1997-Feb.1998)
La Nina (Dec.1998-Feb.1999)red (blue) shading: above (below) normal SST
3. Features in El Nino/La Nina events 3-month Mean SST Anomaly
![Page 21: Climate System Monitoring](https://reader035.fdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062410/568159e9550346895dc7364d/html5/thumbnails/21.jpg)
Regression of 3-month Mean SST on NINO3
DJF
JJA
![Page 22: Climate System Monitoring](https://reader035.fdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062410/568159e9550346895dc7364d/html5/thumbnails/22.jpg)
OLR Anomaly (in El Nino and La Nina)
El Nino (Dec.1997-Feb.1998)
La Nina (Dec.1998-Feb.1999)
blue (red) shading: stronger(weaker)-than-normal convective activity
![Page 23: Climate System Monitoring](https://reader035.fdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062410/568159e9550346895dc7364d/html5/thumbnails/23.jpg)
El Nino Composite Map (OLR)
Dec.-Feb.
Jun.-Aug.
blue (red) Contour: stronger(weaker)-than-normal convective activity
![Page 24: Climate System Monitoring](https://reader035.fdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062410/568159e9550346895dc7364d/html5/thumbnails/24.jpg)
El Nino Composite of Stream Function Anomaly (DJF)
blue (red) Contour: cyclonic (anti-cyclonic) circulation anomaly in N.H.
200hPa
850hPa
![Page 25: Climate System Monitoring](https://reader035.fdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062410/568159e9550346895dc7364d/html5/thumbnails/25.jpg)
El Nino Composite of Stream Function Anomaly (JJA)
blue (red) Contour: cyclonic (anti-cyclonic) circulation anomaly in N.H.
850hPa
200hPa
![Page 26: Climate System Monitoring](https://reader035.fdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062410/568159e9550346895dc7364d/html5/thumbnails/26.jpg)
El Nino/La Nina Composite of 500hPa Height
El Nino (Dec.-Feb.) La Nina (Dec.-Feb.)
blue (red) Contour: negative(positive) anomaly
PNA Pattern TNH Pattern
WP Pattern
![Page 27: Climate System Monitoring](https://reader035.fdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062410/568159e9550346895dc7364d/html5/thumbnails/27.jpg)
4. Mudden-Julian Oscillation(MJO)
Active Convectionpropagating eastward
MJO: intraseasonal oscillation propagating eastward along the equator with 30-60 days period T
ime flow
Westerly Burst
Africa Indonesia South America
![Page 28: Climate System Monitoring](https://reader035.fdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062410/568159e9550346895dc7364d/html5/thumbnails/28.jpg)
Monitoring of MJO
Time-Longitude Section of 5-day mean 200-hPa Velocity Potential Anomaly (5S-5N) ( from Mar. to Aug. 2002 )
blue shading: divergence
![Page 29: Climate System Monitoring](https://reader035.fdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062410/568159e9550346895dc7364d/html5/thumbnails/29.jpg)
Northward Propagation of Active Convection
Time-Latitude Section of 5-day mean OLR averaged in 65-85E ( from Apr. to Sep.2002 )
Active Phase of MJO
![Page 30: Climate System Monitoring](https://reader035.fdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062410/568159e9550346895dc7364d/html5/thumbnails/30.jpg)
5. Asian Summer Monsoon• Onset : mid-May over Indochina Peninsula• Withdrawal : mid-October• Tibetan High at upper level (easterly wind)• Thermal Low pressure at lower level (westerly wind)
Sea level Pressure, 850hPa wind, and OLR ( Jul.2003 )
Somali Jet
Active Convection
L
Subtropical High
![Page 31: Climate System Monitoring](https://reader035.fdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062410/568159e9550346895dc7364d/html5/thumbnails/31.jpg)
Normal Evolution of Asian Summer Monsoon (1) (Convective Activity and Lower Level Circulation)
![Page 32: Climate System Monitoring](https://reader035.fdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062410/568159e9550346895dc7364d/html5/thumbnails/32.jpg)
Normal Evolution of Asian Summer Monsoon (2) (Convective Activity and Higher Level Circulation)
![Page 33: Climate System Monitoring](https://reader035.fdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062410/568159e9550346895dc7364d/html5/thumbnails/33.jpg)
Summer (JJA) Mean Anomalous Circulation in 2003
3-month Mean Temperature Anomaly (Normalized) Category 3-month Precipitation Ratio Category
3-month Mean 850-hPa Stream Function and OLR
![Page 34: Climate System Monitoring](https://reader035.fdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062410/568159e9550346895dc7364d/html5/thumbnails/34.jpg)
Monthly Mean Anomalous Circulation in 2003 Summer
850-hPa Stream Function and OLR 200-hPa Stream Function and OLR
HH
HH
H
L L
LL
L
Jun.
Jul.
Aug.
H
![Page 35: Climate System Monitoring](https://reader035.fdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062410/568159e9550346895dc7364d/html5/thumbnails/35.jpg)
- 1.5
- 1.0
- 0.5
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
SAMOI(N) SAMOI(W) SAMOI(A)
Summer Asian Monsoon OLR Index (SAMOI)
SAMOI(A) : Activity W+ESAMOI(N) : Northward Shift N - SSAMOI(W) : Westward Shift W - E
Time Series ofSAMOI averaged insummer (Jun.-Aug.)(1979-2003) 19
82
1984
1983
1985
1997
1998
1999
2000
![Page 36: Climate System Monitoring](https://reader035.fdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062410/568159e9550346895dc7364d/html5/thumbnails/36.jpg)
SAMOI-A and Summer (JJA) Mean Temperature in Japan
- 1.5
- 1.0
- 0.5
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
1979
1981
1983
1985
1987
1989
1991
1993
1995
1997
1999
2001
2003
- 3.0
- 2.0
- 1.0
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0SAMOI- A T北日本
Time Series of Summer(JJA) Averaged SAMOI-A(Pink Line) and The Temperature in Northern Japan (Blue Line)
Correlation Coefficient : +0.78 ( in 1979-2003)
Significantly Positive Correlation between SAMOI-A and the Temperaturein Northern, Eastern and Western Japan
![Page 37: Climate System Monitoring](https://reader035.fdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062410/568159e9550346895dc7364d/html5/thumbnails/37.jpg)
Products
Online (through TCC web site):
• Monthly Report on Climate System (MRCS),
• Asian monsoon monitoring,
• stratospheric circulation monitoring,
• statistics research.
Offline:
• MRCS,
• Annual Report on Climate System (as CD-ROM),
• MRCS / Separated Volumes,
![Page 38: Climate System Monitoring](https://reader035.fdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062410/568159e9550346895dc7364d/html5/thumbnails/38.jpg)
Menu of Climate System Monitoring on the TCC Web Site
![Page 39: Climate System Monitoring](https://reader035.fdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062410/568159e9550346895dc7364d/html5/thumbnails/39.jpg)
7. Climate Diagnostic Meeting
• Held around 10th every month
• Attendance : forecasters, senior science
officers, etc.
• To brief and discuss current conditions of
climate system
• To share the consensus of the current conditions
![Page 40: Climate System Monitoring](https://reader035.fdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062410/568159e9550346895dc7364d/html5/thumbnails/40.jpg)
8. Future Plans
• To improve long-range forecast• To employ new diagnostic tools• To examine the climate system further• To improve and increase the products
on the web site