Climate & social issue book

Third International Conference on Climate Change & Social Issues 2014

Colombo, Sri Lanka, 30-31 July, 2014

PROCEEDINGS

ISBN 978-955-4543-24-9

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Third International Conference on Climate Change & Social Issues 2014 CCSI 2014 Sri Lanka

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ISBN 978-955-4543-24-9 Published by:

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CCSI 2014

CONFERENCE ORGANIZER

International Centre for Research and Development, Sri Lanka

CONVERNER OF CCSI 2014

Prabhath Patabendi, Sri Lanka

HEAD OF THE SCIENTIFIC COMMITTEE

Dr. P.B. Dharmasena (Sri Lanka) INTERNATIONAL SCIENTIFIC COMMITTEE

Dr. Jim Jarvie (UK)

Dr. P.B. Dharmasena ( Sri Lanka)

Dr. S. Sivalingam ( Australia)

Dr. Risa Morimoto ( France)

Prof. K.Karunathilaka PhD (Sri Lanka)

Prof. Ramani Jayathilaka PhD ( Sri Lanka)

Prof. Hansjochen Ehmer PhD ( Germany)

Prof. Kazuya Yasuhara, Ph.D ( Japan)

Alison Greenaway (New Zealand)

Dr. Rasheed Sulaiman (India)

Mark Williams Esq (USA)

Sharmila L. Murthy Esq (USA)

Prof. Zhihua Zhang ( China)


4

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5

Table of Contents

No Topic Name Page

1 Advanced Life-boat Deployment for High Potential Flooding

Areas in Tainan city, Taiwan

Han-Shin Chen 7

2

Towards a resilient Sydney - supporting collective action to

adapt sub national government services to regional climate

change

Brent Jacobs 12

3 The effects of climate change on groundwater-dependent

wetlands

Marina Herrer-

Pantoja

15

4 Adaptation gaps in agriculture, health and water supply and

sanitation: empirical findings from coastal Bangladesh

Nushrat Jahan 18

5 Climate change and its impact on livelihood of coastal people

in Bangladesh

Russell Kabir 21

6

Estimation and analysis of nutritional status of school going

girls in hill ecosystem: an agro economical and socio personal

analysis in climate change perspectives

Das Rama 26

7

Use of climate information products as an act of adaptation

and mitigation of climate change especially in agricultural

sector in Indonesia

Ayufitriya 32

8 The climate change perception in Sikkim hill ecosystem of India: a participatory perceptual analysis

S.K.. acharya 35

9 Complexity of climate change adaptation; cases of housing

adaptations to flood in ambalanthota and Batticaloa, Sri Lanka

Chethika Abenayake 41

10 Urban and peri-urban agriculture in building resilient cities in

India

Alokananda .B

Mukherjee

44

11 Challenges in local responses to climate change; a case of

urban adaptations in Sri Lanka

G.Janithra Wimaladasa 47

12 Impact of climate change on wetland ecosystem of knp bird

sanctuary

S. Jethoo 52

13 The current scenario of Bangladesh due to the impact of

climate change: statistics and predictions

Momtahana Binte

Habib

56

14 Learning from the experiences in Nepal: mainstreaming

climate change adaptation in development

R. Regmi 61

15 An overview of climate change and its potential implications in Nigeria

H. Darda U 66

16 Coping with and adapting to climate change: some

perspectives from Nigeria

Yaro 66

17 High sodium in drinking water in coastal communities of

Bangladesh

Salman Sakib 67

18 Mainstreaming drought risk management in northwest

Bangladesh in the context of climate change

Shamsuddin Shahid 67

19 Environmental change, livelihood transformation, and shifting

disaster risk thresholds.

Thomson Jack 68

20 A simulation study on the role of rain garden in shielding

aquatic systems from thermal pollution

Sachindra Kaushalya 68

21 Social - business model for climate change mitigation through reforestation, a case study hiniduma bio-link project, sri lanka

Lakmini Senadheera, D.K.

69

22 Climate policy making in india and china: a comparative

analysis.

Robert MIZO 69

23

Is entrepreneurship an important determinant of farmers'

adaptation to climate change in a smallholder farming

community in sri lanka?

Mohamed Esham 70

24 Climate vulnerability and capacity analysis (cvca): four sub-

districts management plan of Bangladesh.

Barman Shyamal

Kanti

70


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25

Comprehending transformation and peace potential of kashmir

conflict; making case for peace through tourism across the

line of control (loc)

Mehwish Qayyum

Durani

Muhammad waqas

Idrees .

71

26 Climate change and the fate of acacia modesta wall. in the

swat district, northern Pakistan

Kishwar Ali 71

27 Framework for climate vulnerability and risk assessment in

Indonesia, the implementation challenge

Denia Syam 72

28 Climate change and international legal controls – a critical

study

D.Gopal 73


7

ADVANCED LIFE-BOAT DEPLOYMENT FOR HIGH POTENTIAL FLOODING

AREAS IN TAINAN CITY, TAIWAN By Han-Shin Chen 1 and Chyan-Deng Jan

1. Ph.D. student, Department of Hydraulic and Ocean Engineering,

National Cheng Kung University, Tainan Taiwan, R.O.C.

2. Prof., Department of Hydraulic and Ocean Engineering,

National Cheng Kung University, Tainan Taiwan, R.O.C.

Abstract

Flood and sediment-related disasters triggered by typhoons and torrential rains usually caused some people

killed and huge economic loss in Taiwan. For example, Typhoon Morakot brought extreme rainfall that

conduced severe flooding and landslides, and caused 35 people died, 300 million NT dollars loss in Tainan

city in 2009. In response to the climate change and extreme weather events, the government of Tainan city

has launched a series of adaption strategies and actions for reducing the damages due to flood and landslide.

These adaption strategies and actions include: a.) investigation of potential flooding areas; b.) community

discussions and hearings; c.) planning of shelters and evacuation routes; d.) public education of hazardous

prevention and mitigation; e.) integration of human resources and materials for advanced deployment; f.)

life-boat advanced deployment for people evacuation, and g.) Advanced deployment policy connection.

This paper focuses on the introduction of the life-boat advanced deployment for high potential flooding

areas in Tainan city. The practice of skill evacuation through self-help departure and life-boats for people

living in high potential flooding areas during Typhoon Kong-Rey in August 2013 is also presented and discussed in this paper.

Keywords: Life-boat advanced deployment, Potential flooding area, Self-help departure, Tainan city

Introduction

August 2, 2009, 1000 kilometers away to the east of Philippine, a tropical cyclone emerged and 3 days later it

was named Typhoon Morakot. It is been the most harmful atmospheric disaster to Taiwan within latest 50 years

and also broke several records of precipitation history in Taiwan, even the accumulations awfully up to 2583

mm in 91 hours. The key feature of Typhoon Morakot is incredible severe rainfall in long-term duration in

Southern Taiwan, although it was just in medium category but far from than it did. Tainan city is located in

Southwest of Taiwan, and about 5 major basins and 10 reservoirs among in, the drainage and irrigation systems

are also fully developed, but poor maintained.

Figure 1: Distribution of the accumulated rainfalln brought by Typhoon Morakot

in the period of Aug. 5 to10 in 2009.

Typhoon Morakot

Aug. 5-10, 2009.


8

The Tsengwen reservoir is mounted at mountain area in Tainan city, the biggest man-made building in Taiwan

and Southeast of Asia, had spillway discharged in emergency. The flood peak join hands with storm surge and

astronomical tides led to downstream overbank close to residential areas. There are 22 Districts in count

suffered flooding in varies, it also means nearly two third of Tainan city were inundated. More than 1 thousand

civilians had been evacuated, 300 million NT dollars loss in all trades and professions. It is a chronic problem of

unplanned land-use pattern, lacked watershed management and river dredging. This situation won’t bear no longer of flooding impact, but more vulnerable in climate change.

Methods

In view of historical data and experiences, we tried to rebuild heavy rainfall time-series and observing

phenomena of high potential area been flooded. Our research adopted the method of scenario analysis and put

the strategy of advanced deployment in together. Finally, we summed up several phases to have a radical

improvement of past dishonorable adaptations. These phases represent in sequence we effort to ease flooding

damage now. It also showed the mechanism of advanced deployment preparation, mitigation and operation. We

moved in doing advanced deployment which is following as below:

Phase 1: Surveying potential flooding areas

First of all, we surveyed several flooding on-spot including low-lying lands, rivers converging, temporary

utilities and urban structures may lead runoff into deeply ponding. 22 Districts of 37 in Tainan city were been

calculated flooding, they’re all flooded or high potential flooding areas. We transferred some cases to that can be improved by responsible authorities like Water Resources, Civil Engineering, Urban Planning, environmental

protection, and etc. In this stage, we assumed hard type measurements like river dredging, detention pond, levee

restore and sewage system rebuild on hotspot are effected, where suffered flooding or populations nearby.

Figure 2: Flooding areas of typhoon Morakot in Tainan city, 2009

Phase 2: Community discussions and hearings

Communities site at potential flooding or inundation area, continuity listening refugee’s feeling and re-build

their psycho health condition are still important. Evacuation of lonely elder, minority group and nursing unit are

difficult, so we gathered community volunteers, cruisers and teaching them how to practically elude disables

when hazard coming. We concluded that best ways to response climate change related disasters are early

warning, evacuation and stay away from hazardous region to assured livelihood recovery soon. In this phase,

people should learn why, when and how to evacuating himself by self-help methods.

Phase 3: Pre-planning of shelters and evacuation routes

Tainan city has 37 Districts, each of them has its owned sub-government we called “District Office”. Each office has to surveying local shelters, pre-planning evacuation routes and drawing into an evading-based map,

then teaching people how to use it.

Flooding

areas are

presented in

yellow color


9

Figure 3: An example of the flood disaster prevention & evacuation map for

the JhihYi village in Tainan. This map includes the information of

authorities, shelters, evacuation routes and quick reminders for

flood prevention & evacuation.

Phase 4: Public education of hazardous prevention and mitigation

Community awareness, especially proper knowledge of hazardous prevention and mitigation are crucial, it is

matter of the attitude that how people face upcoming disaster and whether quickly response. Authorities always interacted with communities or local publics, teaching them about mitigation strategies like when, why and how

to be rid of dangerous area. These advocacies can be broadcasted by internet, radio and media, during rainy

season or preceding period of Typhoon.

Phase 5: Integration resources for advanced deployment

With past experiences of heavy rainfall prevention and recovery, totally 41 advanced deployment spots in 22

districts be calculated. We synthesized that it would takes 693 rescuers need 137 life-boats (motor), 11 life-rafts

(non-motor), 6 watercrafts (jet-ski) and 111 fire engines to cover whole potential flooding spots in Tainan city.

It is concept of flexible module; we can just deploying it in warning area, if not severe as it does.

Table 1: Advanced Deployment resources for flood disaster prevention & evacuation.

Phase 6: Life-boat advanced deployment for people evacuation

Heavy rainfall has become a trend of extreme climate event in climate change. Governmental Department

(Bureau, Office) should rid of the defensive thinking call for help, on the contrary, we should planning and

advanced deploying resources on potential flooding spots for stand-by, if it is predicted to be massive

evacuation

Deployment

Spots

Crew

number

Life-boat

number

Life-raft

number

Watercraft

number

Fire engine

number

41

(22 Districts)

304

(Occupied)

137 11 6 111 252

(Volunteer)

137

(Cruise)


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Disaster Warning Launched

Advanced Deployment on high potential flooding area

Evacuation of lonely elder, minority group and nursing

unit

Self-help departure and live at relatives

Public Hospital (other nursing

unit)

Shelters (Gyms, activity

center and schools)

Flood Disaster prevention & evacuation Advanced

Deployment

Inter-Gov. United Efforts

Civilians NPO

/ NGO

Medias Legislatives

Figure 5: Flow chart of the advanced deployment for flood

disaster prevention & evacuation.

Phase 7: Advanced deployment policy connection

Policy of Advanced Deployment is deeply involved with multiple coordination and communication between

government, Legislative, NPO/NGO and Medias. Contingency perspectives are building strong relationship,

message window, and command hierarchy, if it’s necessary to be formed a municipal Emergency Operation

Center (E.O.C.). Smooth and quick response between groups is beneficial to leadership, when hazard has a

broadly influence.

Case Study

Aug. 28-31, 2013, Typhoon Kong-Rey swept aside from Taiwan and carried massive thunderstorm cell of

southwest airflow to Tainan. At 8 pm on Aug. 28, it was measured maximum daily accumulated precipitation

647.5 mm in ShanShang Dist. and 629.5 mm in ZuoJhen Dist. The two districts both are the upstream of

irrigation and drainage system of SinHua Dist. None was conscious enough of the all night long heavy rainfall

may bring a large-scale flooding in Tainan city. Before dawn on Aug. 29, flash floods were getting higher and

higher very quick at JhihYi vil. in SinHua Dist. due to the two drainage systems converged and shallow terrain

nearby. EOC raised warning to level-2 and emergency launched the mission of advanced deployment at 0430 am. This mission included 393 crews, 48 life-boats, 155 fire engines (ambus) been sent to the planning spots,

most people were still fast asleep and can’t be evacuated by self-help right now. At 7 am, 2.5 hours later,

warning had been raised to Level-1, more crews and resources been putting in.

Figure 6: Advanced deployment policy connection

for flood disaster prevention & evacuation.

District Office


11

On scenes, rescuers must broadcasted people to stay high for domestic needs supplied from door to door or

transferred them by crossing partial inundation areas. The city had to protected her civilians against the flooding

disaster, not only by connecting with multiples but also bring its talents. NPO/NGOs quickly gathered domestic

needs, adopted evacuated people and supplied hot foods, water to frontline crews. Medias televised and

broadcasted real-time news or adaptation measures for the city. 55 hours past, 94 civilians awaked and self-help

evacuated, 190 been rescued and 5 to hospital but no one lost, provided by frontline command post and mission accomplished. Tainan city government removed EOC at 4 pm, Sep. 1st, when Typhoon Kong-Rey and

thunderstorm cell vanished. Municipal authorities shall devote efforts to reforming damage, improving measure

and sustaining livelihood, in case if any other typhoon were approaching during frequent season.

Conclusion

The case study had been examined and compared losses of a large-scale high potential flooding area in

influences during typhoon or heavy rainfall buffet, and shown Tainan city government successfully educated

civilians to familiar and deal with countermeasures of evacuation like routes, shelters and domestic needs, even

help neighborhoods. Withstand following-up typhoons and torrential rains relentless ordeal, we found that

human lives, properties and flooding losses were declined obviously. If done something might be better, we

suggest as follow:

a.) Temporary low-lying area, sediment basin and public utilities led to flooding or landslide, should be updated

real-time.

b.) Authorities should draw the precipitation threshold lines of triggering advanced deployment up. In can be

assistant of EOC’s decision making.

c.) Hard type countermeasures of urban water management received distinguished results, and keep floods away

from large population residential in most areas in Tainan city.

d.) Soft type countermeasures of human behavior, logical thinking and common sense of hazardous prevention,

evacuation and adaptation should be implanted in civilian’s memory continually.

e.) Based on Taiwanese living and socioeconomic style, the municipal message of call off study and work

should be released earlier last night, in case people know about nothing for tomorrow routine.

Acknowledgement

This study has been financially supported by a 5 yrs. in-depth disaster prevention project provided by National

Disaster & Protection Commission (NDPC). Thanks also go to the colleagues of Tainan City Government Fire Bureau and anonymous suggestion from editorial staff.

References

[1] Arnold M., (2005), National Disaster Hotspots–A Global Risk Analysis, Urban Forum, pp.5-9, Mar. 21,

2006, Washington D.C. U.S.A.

[2] DEFRA (2012), Flood Rescue Concept of Operation- Flood Rescue National Enhancement Project,

Department for Environment, food and Rural Affairs, pp.11-12, 17-20, Jul. 4, 2012, Crown, London U.K.

[3] ECRR (2003), Best practices on flood prevention, protection and mitigation, European Centre for River

Restoration, pp.6-9, Utrecht Holland, N.L.

[4] Han M. Y., (2011), Integrated Flood Management against Climate Change in Korea, 2011 International

Symposium on Nature Disaster Prevention-Coping with Extreme Flood and Sediment related Disasters,

pp.71-74, Oct. 25-26, 2011, Tainan Taiwan, R.O.C.

[5] Lien H. C., Wu S. J. and Hsu C. T., et al., (2011), Automatic Real-Time Flood Prediction System in Taiwan, The 7th Taiwan-Japan Joint Seminar on Nature Hazard Mitigation in 2011 Typhoon Morakot & 311

Earthquake in Japan, pp.49-52, Oct. 25-26, 2011, Tainan Taiwan, R.O.C.

[6] MST (2011), Taiwan Climate Change Science Report, Ministry of Science and Technology, pp.9-10, 2011,

Taipei, Taiwan, R.O.C.

[7] NYC (2014), New York City Hurricane Evacuation Zones, New York City Office of Emergency

Management, New York, U.S.A.

[8] Wang C. M., Lee S. P. and Lee C. C., et al., (2010), Disasters caused by Typhoon Morakot, Journal of

Taiwan Disaster Prevention Society, Vol. 2, No.1, pp.28-30, Feb. 2010, Tainan Taiwan, R.O.C.


12

TOWARDS A RESILIENT SYDNEY - SUPPORTING COLLECTIVE ACTION TO

ADAPT SUB NATIONAL GOVERNMENT SERVICES TO REGIONAL CLIMATE

CHANGE

Brent JACOBS1, Louise BORONYAK1, Suzanne DUNFORD2, Natasha KURUPPU1, Bianca LEWIS3, and

Christopher LEE2 1Institute for Sustainable Futures, University of Technology Sydney, Australia.Email: [email protected]

2Impacts and Adaptation Section, New South Wales Office of Environment and Heritage, Australia 3Parramatta City Council, Australia.

Keywords: government, adaptation, vulnerability

Abstract:

We report the findings of a vulnerability assessment of vulnerability of government service delivery to climate

change for Sydney, Australia. Climate projections indicate that in addition to increases in average temperature,

Sydney can expect higher incidence of extreme climate events such as heat waves, bush fires, intense low

pressure weather systems leading to riverine flooding, and coastal inundation from sea level rise.Weemployed a

participatory integrated assessment process with public sector employees representing five key sectors.

Vulnerability stemmed from: lack of perception of climate risk, inadequate skills and knowledge to understand

climate impacts, pressure from population growth on human settlements, insufficient consideration of climate

change in strategic planning, pressure on natural resource supply and security, and an inability to direct government funding to adaptation action stemming from current political ideologies.

Introduction Migration of human population from rural to urban areas is a continuing global trend (10). The promise of

employment, the ready availability of food and the diversity and quality of human services has driven the

growth of cities (11). Globally, many major cities are located in coastal zones wherethe impacts of

anthropogenic climate change are likely to be felt most strongly because of the combination of sea level rise,

flooding and subsidence with dense human populations and high value infrastructure (3).

Urban populations are particularly reliant on provision of government services. In the greater Sydney Region

these services are delivered by a range of agencies of the NSW Government and a series of relatively

independent local government administrations. The extent to which these diverse service providers are able to

adapt to long term climate impacts and increased frequency and severity of extreme events will be a critical

determinant of the resilience of the greater Sydney region in the future (e.g. 1). Sydney is located in a broad river basin, on the east coast of the temperate zone of the Australian continent. It

has a population of almost 4.4 million people living in relatively low density settlements and is expected to

grow by 1.5 millionpeople by 2031 (http://strategies.planning.nsw.gov.au). To accommodate population growth

urban settlement is expanding into peri-urban areas displacing agricultural production and placing new

settlements adjacent to fire-prone nature reserves and water catchments. Densification of existing suburbs and

development of green-fields sites for additional housing is reducing green space which supports biodiversity,

mitigates urban heat, and provides natural drainage.

Climate projections indicate that in addition to increases in average temperature, Sydney can expect higher

incidence of extreme climate events such as heat waves, bush fires, intense low pressure weather systems

leading to riverine flooding, and coastal inundation from sea level rise (2).

In this paper we report the findings of an assessment of the vulnerability and adaptive capacity of government service delivery under projected climate change. The aim was to identify the key features of the Greater Sydney

Region that increase the vulnerability of government service delivery, government's capacity to adapt and

actions that could address constraints to adaptation to enhance Sydney’s resilience to climate change.

Materials and Methods

The Towards a Resilient Sydney (TaRS) project used an Integrated Regional Vulnerability Assessment (IRVA)

process that has been employed extensively with public sector managers in several regions throughout NSW,

Australia (4).

We conceptualised vulnerability as a system’s exposure to climate change impacts, sensitivity to those impacts

and the capacity to adapt. For adaptive capacity, we drew on the definition of Nelson et al. (8, p397).

TaRS was comprised of 4 stages:

1. Collection and synthesis of regional climate change and socio-economic information(2,http://www.abs.gov.au/census).

2. Assessment of sectoral impacts and adaptive capacity via separate sector workshops.

3. Integration of assessment resultsthrough a workshop involving approximately 70 participantsfrom each of the sectors under study to provide an holistic assessment of the region’s vulnerability to climate change.


13

4. Identification of key regional vulnerabilitiesthrough thematic analysis of qualitative information collected at each of the workshops.

Workshop participants were drawn from NSW government agencies and Sydney’s local government

administrations within five key regional sectors: human services, emergency management, economy and

industry, infrastructure and the built environment, and natural and cultural assets.

The results are a synthesis of the themes common to all sectors.

Results Six common themes were identified by all sectors as contributing to the vulnerability of government service

delivery in Sydney to climate change (Table 1). While we present each of the themes individually, they do not

operate independently and there is considerable interaction across themes that act to reinforce inertia on climate

adaptation in Sydney.

Discussion:

The key vulnerabilities to climate change identified through the TaRS project are consistent with previous

findings for global cities generally(9) and for local government in Australia (7,5). A sharedunderstanding of the

Sydney context of vulnerability and adaptive capacity across the service delivery actors in local and state

government is a critical first step to building a more resilient Sydney because it ensures co-ordinated action on

climate impacts and helps to avoid maladaptation within individual sectors (8).

Many of the constraints to adaptation have antecedents in aspects of society that represent contemporary

challenges for the public sector but that are conducive to change over longer timeframes, such as societal valuesand technological innovation (e.g. 6). We have extracted the most prominent of these societal changes

from the TaRS project findings and placed them in a logical sequence along an adaptation timeline spanning the

next 50 years (Figure 1). The order in which they appear is governed by our judgement of when climate change

is likely to be the dominant driver of adaptation. For example, risk aversion to climate impacts is already a

major driver of behaviour for many vulnerable communities (such as Australian coastal villages subject

tocoastal erosion). We expect that as climate impacts manifest, risk aversion will spread from vulnerable

communities to the general population diverting financial resources to asset protection and placing increasing

pressure on higher tiers of government to act, leading ultimately to political bi-partisanship on climate policy.

Bi-partisanship represents the first of a series of tipping points or thresholds of change along the time line and

would greatly enhance adaptive capacity of public sector managers.

The questions for government are: how can adaptive change be supported in advance of the major tipping points that constrain public sector action (e.g. inconsistent and highly contested public policy approachesin Australia)?;

and, will the rate at which these tipping points isexceeded be fast enough to allow adaptive capacity to keep

pace with climate impacts to ensure Sydney’s resilience?

Acknowledgements: The views expressed in this paper do not necessarily reflect those of the NSW

Government.We thank members of the TaRS project team, Western Sydney Regional Organisation of Councils

and the Sydney Coastal Councils Group. Funding came from the NSW Office of Environment and Heritage

under the NSW Climate Adaptation Research Hub.

References: 1. Bulkeley H, CastánBroto V. Government by experiment? Global cities and the governing of climate

change. Transactions of the Institute of British Geographers; 38:3. 2013.

2. Department of Environment, Climate Change and Water NSW. NSW Climate Impact Profile, DECCW,

Sydney, NSW. 2010.

3. Hallegate S, Green C. Nicholls R, Corfee-Morlot J. Future flood losses in major coastal cities Nature

Climate Change; 3:September. 2013.

4. Jacobs B, Lee C, O’Toole D, Vines K. Integrated regional vulnerability assessment of government services

to climate change. International Journal of Climate Change Strategies and Management; 6:3. 2014.

5. Measham, T, Preston, B, Smith, T, Brooke C, Gorddard, R, Withycombe, G and Morrison C. Adapting to

climate change through local municipal planning: Barriers and challenges. Mitigation and adaptation

strategies for global change 16:889-909. 2011 6. Moe E. Mancur Olson and structural economic change: Vested interests and the industrial rise and fall of

the great powers Review of International Political Economy; 16:2. 2009.

7. Mukheibir P, Kuruppu N, Gero A, Herriman J. Overcoming cross-scale challenges to climate change

adaptation for local government: a focus on Australia. Climate Change; 121:2. 2013.

8. Nelson DR,Adger WN, Brown K. Adaptation to environmental change: contributions of a resilience

framework.Annual review of Environment and Resources; 32:1. 2007.

9. The Rockefeller Foundation. City Resilience Framework. The Rockefeller Foundation, New York, NY.

2014.

10. United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs. World urbanisation prospects: the 2012

revision. United Nations, New York, NY. 2013.


14

11. Williams A, Jobes P. Economic and quality-of-life considerations in urban-rural migration Journal of Rural

Studies; 6:2. 1990.

Figure Legends:

Figure 1. Causal loops and tipping points along an adaptation time line for Sydney.

Table 1.Common cross-sectoral themes, their contribution to service delivery vulnerability and adaptive

constraints.

Figures and Tables:

Figure 1

Table 1


15

THE EFFECTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON GROUNDWATER-DEPENDENT

WETLANDS Marina Herrera-Pantoja*

Hydrometeorological Centre, Queretaro Water Commission, Mexico

Abstract Wetlands are important ecosystems that provide valuable hydrological, biochemical and climatic functions that

are essential for supporting the world’s biodiversity. Projected increases in temperature are expected to disrupt present patterns of plant and animal distribution in these aquatic ecosystems.

In this study, the outputs of the CRU weather generator are used to produce future scenarios of climate change

to evaluate the potential impact of climate change on groundwater dependent wetlands in East England for the

2020s, 2050s and 2080s time periods. A groundwater model was produced to simulate water levels for a

wetland in an unconfined aquifer. Implications for wetland vegetation typical of calcareous lowland fens are

discussed with reference to nationally agreed ecohydrological guidelines. Results showed that the persistence of

future dry periods with associated low groundwater recharge during the latter part of this century will potentially

increase pressures on groundwater dependent wetlands. Prolonged exposure to lower water levels could lead to

a loss of wetland communities or loss of botanical interest and could potentially favour the balance of

competition towards dry species by the end of this century.

Key words:

Climate change, wetlands, groundwater.

Introduction

Wetlands are important ecosystems that provide valuable hydrological, biochemical and climatic functions that

are essential for supporting the world’s biodiversity [7]. In Britain, the high species richness of wetlands in East

Anglia, support 20% of all nationally rare and 40% of nationally scarce vascular plants; accordingly many of

these sites have been designated as Sites of Special Scientific Interest (SSSIs) and given international protection

as Ramsar sites and/or Special Protection Areas. Nevertheless, in this region, there has been a dramatic loss of

wetlands mainly due to some policies encouraging wetlands conversion to agricultural land [2,5] and now the

projected changes in temperature and precipitation are expected to disrupt these fragile aquatic ecosystems [8].

Study area In East Anglia, Breckland is a natural habitat which comprises a group of fluctuating meres fed by groundwater

from the underlying Chalk aquifer . These meres have unique hydrogeological characteristics which advantage a

number of rare species that require low competition and low nutrient levels. The best known are Ringmere,

Fowlmere and Landmere. Their surface areas may vary from about 0.6 ha (i.e. Punchbowl Mere) to as much as

12 ha (i.e. Mickle Mere). The outline of these meres may vary according to the water levels; some meres may

have very steep sloping sides and a depth of about 7 m whereas other meres barely reach a depth of 1.5 m.

Typical water level fluctuation in the area is between 1 and 3 m, although depending on topography,

morphology and geology the range may vary.

In the area, the most widespread wetland vegetation communities are the M24 (Molinia caerulea-Cirsium

dissectum) fen meadow and M13 (Schoenus nigricans - Juncus subnodulosus) Mire [6, 10]. Associated species

include Saw Sedge (Cladium mariscus), Southern Marsh Orchid (Dactylorhiza praetermissa), Marsh Helleborine (Epipactis palustris), Brown Sedge (Carex disticha) Black Bog-rush (Schoenus nigricans), with deeper areas

supporting extensive Tufted Sedge (Carex elata).

Methods

In this study, a simple methodology is used to produce potential scenarios of climate change on groundwater

dependent wetlands in Breckland. Data from a nearby meteorological station were used in a modified daily soil

moisture balance model to calculate historical time series of potential groundwater recharge (Hxr) and actual

evapotranspiration (AE) for the area [4]. In this dynamic model, for each time step a series of operations is

performed consecutively to show temporal change in soil moisture content as a result of the previous time step

soil moisture content and additional actual evapotranspiration and rain data. A conceptual model was produced

to simulate representative range of water level fluctuations in the unconfined Chalk aquifer. Within the area, a

wetland simulating a mere in direct contact with the Chalk, which exhibit marked fluctuations of water level, such as Fowlmere, Langmere or Punchbowlmere, was set. This mere simulates a depression of 10 ha with a bed

elevation at 30 m AOD, approximately 6 m below surface. The model was translated into a numerical model

using MODFLOW, which can simulate groundwater flow in a three-dimensional heterogeneous and anisotropic

medium. Monthly recharge and evapotranspiration values computed using the historical records was assigned to

the uppermost layer of the model. Additional loss of water was set from abstraction licenses.


16

In order to model climate change, future temperature and precipitation data from the CRU weather generator are

used to produce future scenarios of Hxr and AE for the 2020s, 2050s and 2080s time periods. The time series

produced were used as inputs for the groundwater model and transient simulations were carried out. To explore

the implications of future water levels for wetland vegetation typical of calcareous lowland fens, the results of

the future climate change scenarios were compared with the Ecohydrological guidelines investigated by

Wheeler et al., [9] which evaluate the range of hydrological regimes that gives rise to specific vegetation communities. The guidelines involve water table depths linked to soil characteristics and provide general

guidance on the hydrological requirements of a plant community that can be applied broadly to any given site.

Results

Results showed that the prolonged rise in mean water levels during the second part of the 2020s, in which the

mean water level is about 30 cm above the baseline mean water level (Table 1), is likely to lead to changes in

species composition towards more swamp like stands. During the 2050s the water table returns to lower water

levels similar to those observed in the baseline period. In this period, meres may return to the characteristic

concentric rings of rare and local plant species which require low competition and low nutrient levels. During

the 2080s the mean water table is 29.84 m, which is almost 0.9 m lower than the baseline mean value and the

lowest of the three modelled scenarios. The drought period persisting for more than 60 months could lead to a

loss of wetland communities and increased representation of dryland species. The results of the future simulations are presented in Table 1.

Table 1 Simulated water levels in a wetland fed by an unconfined Chalk aquifer during the baseline period

(1961-1990) and the 2020s, 2050s and 2080s future periods of the ‘high’ gas emissions scenario and their likely

impacts on groundwater dependent wetland communities in East Anglia.

Discussion and conclusions

This study aims to give a sense of the magnitude of the response of groundwater-dependent wetlands to changed

climatic conditions by the end of this century. Wetland communities distributions presented in this study are

based on water level fluctuations in the Chalk aquifer in East Anglia and linked to the Ecohydrological

Guidelines for East Anglia [9] to help to predict, in a very simple manner, the likely future impact of climate

change on these communities. The modelling approach, although simple, does provide a framework for

understanding likely impacts. Climate change may alter groundwater recharge provoking changes in the elevation of the water table in unconfined Chalk aquifers in East Anglia. The persistence of future dry periods

with associated low groundwater recharge during the latter part of this century will potentially increase

pressures on groundwater dependent wetlands. The predicted fall in wetland water level by the end of this

century may have a greater impact on those mere species with a small tolerance to dry conditions. Changes in

water levels will alter not only the balance of competition toward dry species [3] but also influence soil

properties such as redox potential, concentrations of reduced toxins and nutrient availability all of which play an

important role in the growth and persistence of wetland plants [10] and in the regulation of species distributions

[1]. The lowering of the water table level in groundwater-fed sites sourced from unconfined aquifers is likely to

be further influenced by an increase in acidity through changes in the amount of rainwater altering base

richness.

The results presented here include a significant chain of uncertainties, all of which should be considered when adopting such an approach for planning and conservation strategies.

Acknowledgements

We would like to thank to the Mexican National Council for Science and Technology (CONACYT) for its

financial support for this research, the Climatic Research Unit, University of East Anglia for the provision of the

BETWIXT weather generator time series data.

Mean

water table

(m AOD )

Minimum

water table

(m AOD)

Duration of

low water table

(months)

Maximum

water table

(m AOD)

Duration of

hight water

table (months)

Likely impact on

wetland communities

Baseline 30.74 28.68 12 33.85 3

2020s 31.06 27.98 24 33.76 2 Changes towards swamp-like stands

2050s 30.79 29.35 9 36.85 6 Recovery of rare and local plant species

2080s 29.84 27.91 61 32.03 0 Loss of wetlands communities


17

References

[1] Crawford RMM. 2003. Seasonal differences in plant responses to flooding and anoxia. Canadian Journal of

Botany 81: 1224-1246.

[2] Environment Agency. 2003. A Guide to Monitoring Water Levels and Flows at wetland Sites. National

Groundwater and Contaminated Land Centre, UK. [3] Fojt W, Harding M. 1995. Thirty years of change in the vegetation communities of three valley mires, in

Suffolk, England. Journal of Applied Ecology 32: 561-577.

[4] Herrera-Pantoja M, Hiscock KM. 2008. The effects of climate change on potential groundwater recharge in

Great Britain. Hydrological Processes 22: 73-86.

[5] Lei Y, Min L, Sihui W, Yanwei Z. 2010. Wetland Landscape change in Daliaohe River basin and the driving

factors analysis. Procedia Environmental Sciences. 2:1255–1264

[6] Rodwell JS. 1991. British Plant Communities Vol. 2. Mires and Heaths. Cambridge University Press:

Cambridge.

[7] van der Valk AG. 2006. The Biology of Freshwater Wetlands. Oxford University Press: New York.

[8] Walter GR. 2003. Plants in a warmer world. Perspectives in Plant Ecology, Evolution and Systematics 6:

169-185.

[9] Wheeler BD, Gowing DJG, Shaw SC, Mountford JO, Money RP. 2004. Ecohydrological Guidelines for Lowland Wetland Plant Communities, EA, Peterborough.

[10] Wheeler BD, Shaw SC. 2000. A Wetland Framework for Impact Assessment at Statutory Sites in Eastern

England. Rep. W6-068/TR1. Environment Agency: Bristol.


18

ADAPTATION GAPS IN AGRICULTURE, HEALTH AND WATER SUPPLY AND

SANITATION: EMPIRICAL FINDINGS FROM COASTAL BANGLADESH

NushratJahan1, Md. ReazUddin Khan1 and MinhazFarid Ahmed1

Abstract

In IPCC 5th assessment report, global climate scientist and policy makers have agreed that, warming is

unequivocal and is caused by human intervention on climatic system. Impacts are observed in agriculture, health

and water supply and sanitation (WatSan) sectors due to climatic stressors. In the coastal area of Bangladesh,

cyclones and salinity intrusion are causing agricultural loss, damage to cultivable land, rise in vector borne

diseases and stress on water availability and quality. The study aims to identify local adaptation practices in

agriculture, health and WatSan sectors and compare those with best practices to determine adaptation gaps. Six

focus group discussions (FGDs) have been conducted with farmer, health practitioners and WatSan committee

members and government and non-government organization (NGO) officials in Shyamnagar and Bamnaupazila

of Satkhira and Barguna district, respectively. Rescheduling of cropping patterns, introduction of saline tolerant

crops, raising plinth of homesteads, latrines and tubewell, rain water harvesting and use of pond sand filter etc. are common adaptation measures. Basic problem in adaptation is lack of integration among government and

NGO activities.

Key words: Coastal areas, Local practices, Adaptation gap

1. Scope and relevance of the study

Bangladesh is a densely populated country with around 140 million people (Ministry of Water Resources,

2005). One-third of the country belongs to the coastal zone and around 34.8 million people live in the coastal

area (BBS, 2001). In IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) 5th assessment report, global climate

scientist and policy makers have agreed that, warming is unequivocal and is caused by human intervention on

climatic system. Impacts of warming are observedin agriculture, health and water supply and sanitation

(WatSan) sectors more specifically. In the coastal area of Bangladesh, cyclones and salinity intrusion are

causing agricultural loss, damage to cultivable land, rise in vector borne diseases, stress on water availability and quality and stress on sanitation coverage. Thus,this study aims to identify local adaptation practices in

agriculture, health and WatSan sectors and analyse current situation to determine adaptation gaps.

2. Advancements in management of agricultural, health and water supply and sanitation

Likewise the population of other parts of the country, the main livelihood of the maximum people of the coastal

area is agriculture (MoEF, 2001). However, according to Ministry of Environment and Forestry (MoEF, 2001)

agricultural activities are severely damaged by the increased frequency and intensity of natural disaster such as

cyclone, storm surge, salinity intrusion, flood, water logging, drought, etc. Moreover, the governmental policies

are overlapped i.e. in agricultural policy there is provision of expending the cultivable land (Ministry of

Agriculture, 2012). While in forest policy, the forest should be protected along with the afforestation in new

areas (Government of Bangladesh, 1994). Therefore, the implementations of these policies have been

unsatisfactory.

Several studies have been conducted to link climate change with health. IPCC (2014) reported that, direct health impact is related to frequency of extreme events like heat, drought and heavy rainfall. Increase of warmer and

wetter conditions influences bacterial and insecticidal growth and thus intensified water and vector borne

diseases (WHO, 2009). Bangladesh approved public health policy in 2011 with special attention to ensure

people’s rights for access to health information and establish surveillance for adverse impact of climate change

on health (Ministry of Health &Family Welfare, 2011). In the policy, climate change and emerging diseases is

considered as challenges. To overcome this challenge, flexible planning is required where emphasis has to be

given for short term planning to meet long term vision. In the national health policy this type of holistic and

flexible intervention is still foreseen.

In Bangladesh, freshwater availability is dependent on seasonal rainfall that is monsoon rainfall. Seasonality in

rainfall affects discharge of rivers too. Due to climate change, variability of precipitation is likely to increase.

Therefore,surface water sources will face variability in water availability (Nishat& Mukherjee, 2013). WARPO (Water Resources Planning Organization) predicts that in 2020, there will be 880 million m3 deficits in water

supply (2001). According to WHO (2009) reservoirs and natural sources can provide for seasonal unavailability

of water. Also piped water supply and community-based water management, infrastructural investments and

land use management will contribute to resilience of the water sector in climate change (US Global Change,

2000; WHO, 2009). In the case of sanitation, pit latrines and sewerage are mostly resilient in climate change,

but extra safeguard will be needed for flooding scenario.

1 Lecturer, Centre for Climate Change and Environmental Research (C3ER), BRAC University, Dhaka 1212,

Bangladesh


19

Figure 1 Study area map (source: C3ER, BRAC University)

3. Method of the study

This study is a qualitative exploratory research. Study area was selected based on susceptibility to soil and water

salinity and cyclone and storm surge. Selected upazilasincluded Shyamnagar from Satkhira district and Bamna

from Barguna district (Figure 1). Method of data collection was focused group discussion and secondary

literature review. Six focus group discussions (FGDs) have been conducted with farmer, health practitioners and WatSan committee members and government and non-government organization (NGO) officials in

Shyamnagarand Bamna.

4. Results and Discussion

a. Agricultural sector

Salinity is increasing rapidly both in the soil and water in the coastal zone of Bangladesh; however the farmers

are still depending on the traditional cropping pattern for cultivation and irrigation. A few varieties of saline

tolerant rice species are being cultivated but those are only tolerant to a lower salinity level. Similar situation is

observed in the case of flood and drought tolerant rice species. Natural management of pest is also very poor

due to lack of awareness among the farmers and adequate support from the GO-NGOs, though pests and insects

have increased recently with increase in temperature and more summer days.

Accordingly, the support of government at union level is quite ineffective because of unavailability of the agricultural officer as well as scarcity of better seeds, fertilizers and pesticides. Appropriate information and

technology for agricultural activities are not disseminated amongfarmersowing to lack of co-ordination between

local government and non-governmental organizations.

In the coastal area irrigation is extremely dependent on surface water and it is becoming scarce due to drought,

siltation and salinity. Ground water is also gradually becoming saline. Therefore, it would be wise to promote

the cultivation of crops that require less irrigation and tolerate salinity such as sunflower or eco-friendly shrimp

culture in water logged saline affected areas of Satkhira. Some NGOs are trying to promote such change in crop

selection but it lacks in large scale government initiative.

b. Health

Climate-sensitive diseases are spreading in Satkhira and Barguna districts with rise in frequency and intensity of

flood, drought, cyclone, heat and cold wave, salinity intrusion etc. In Shyamnagarupazila of Satkhira district, people usually drink saline water as the fresh water is scarce. This situation has become severe after the

devastating cyclone Aila. As a result, mortality and morbidity is changing. Local people reported that increased

number of patients is found with pneumonia, eclampsia, high blood pressure, common cold, malaria, dengue,

tuberculosis and diarrhoeal diseases. People are trying to adapt with changed scenario but there are some

limitations. Those limitations include limited access to health facilities e.g. inadequate number of health

infrastructures and medical practitioners compared to the number of patient. After any disaster or even during

summer or winter, a significant portion of people do not get proper health services. Moreover, lack of early

warning and information dissemination on temporal nature of diseases makes people’s small scale adaptation


20

measures insignificant. There is lack of initiatives to mainstream climate change and variability in health sector

at national, regional and local level.

c. Water supply and sanitation

Fresh water supply is scarce at different parts of coastal Bangladesh. Major approach of ensuring safe drinking

water for all is installation of deep tubewells in rural areas of the country, but it has a few drawbacks too. In

coastal districts likeSatkhira and Bargunaextracting ground waterworsens salinity intrusion. Tubewells are not installed in a planned manner either, thus there arises chances of over extraction and reducing optimum water

flow. At Bargunatubewell installation has not been successful due to absence ofgood quality aquifer and iron

contamination. Thus pond sand filter is becoming popular as an alternative source of fresh water supply. Rain

water harvesting is another source of water especially during times of natural disasters. Improved rain water

harvesting plants are being installed at many parts of the coast.

Management of water sources remains a big issue till now. Community based water supply management

remains unsuccessful due to lack of ownership, influence of local elites, scarcity of fund etc. At many places

tubewells or pond sand filters are installed but becomes unusabledue to lack of maintenance. Similar condition

is found in the sanitation sectors. Sanitary latrines are being installed by NGOs as a part of hardware support or

loans are distributed for latrine construction as soft support. Often construction materials for latrine are of poor

quality. Also after a disaster poor people cannot afford to repair their latrines so sanitation coverage comes

down to a lower level. Thus maintenance and management issues are hindering adaptationin water supply and sanitation sector.

5. Conclusion

Adaptation to climatic change and variability in agriculture, health and WatSan sectors is taking place in limited

scale. Major limitations to current practice of adaptation include lack of coordination among different

government and non- government agencies, failure in knowledge disseminationto the grass root and poor

management and maintenance of infrastructural adaptation measures.

6. Acknowledgement

The authors are grateful to the entire research team of C3ER, BRAC University for their valuable support,

suggestion and co-operation. Special thanks go to Mr. Nandan Mukherjee, Mr. SajedurRahman, Mr. A, S,

Moniruzzaman Khan and Ms. RoufaKhanam. Also authors express their gratitude to BRAC University for

providing grant for conference registration.

7. References

GoB.Forest policy 1994; Government of the People’s Republic of

Bangladesh;1994.http://www.moef.gov.bd/html/state_of_env/pdf/bangladesh_disasters.pdf

IPCC.Climate Change 2014: Impacts, Adaptation, and Vulnerability Part A: Global and Sectoral Aspects.

Contribution of Working Group II to the Fifth Assessment Report of theIntergovernmental Panel on

Climate Change; Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and NewYork, NY, USA;

2014.

Ministry of Agriculture.National agricultural extension policy; Ministry of Agriculture, Government of the

People’s Republic of Bangladesh; 2012.

MoEF. Bangladesh: State of environment 2001; Ministry of Environment and Forest, Government of the

People’s Republic of Bangladesh;2001. viewed on 10 June 2014,

Ministry of Health & Family Welfare.National health policy; Ministry of Health and Family Welfare, Govt. of Bangladesh; 2011.

Ministry of Water Resources.Coastal zone policy; Ministry of Water Resources, Government of the People’s

Republic of Bangladesh; 2005.

Nishat A, Mukherjee N. Climate Change Impacts, Scenario and Vulnerability of Bangladesh; Disaster Risk

Reduction Methods, Approaches and Practices Springer; 2013, p. 15-42.

US Global Change Research Program. Water: the potential consequences of climate variability and change for

the water resources of the United States; National Water Assessment Group, U.S. Global Change

Research Program; p 160, 2000.http://www.gcrio.org/National Assessment/water/water.pdf

WARPO.National Water Management Plan Project; Ministry of Water Resources, Govt. of Bangladesh;1999.

WHO, Summary and policy implecations Vision 2030: the resilience of water supply and sanitationin the face of

climate change; Geneva, 2009, p. 12- 29 WHO.Protecting health from climate change: Global research priorities; Geneva, Switzerland; 2009.

http://www.moef.gov.bd/html/state_of_env/pdf/bangladesh_disasters.pdf

http://www.gcrio.org/National%20Assessment/water/water.pdf


21

CLIMATE CHANGE AND ITS IMPACT ON LIVELIHOOD OF COASTAL PEOPLE

IN BANGLADESH

Russell Kabir 1, Hafiz T.A. Khan 2, Emma Ball 3, Kay Caldwell4

1 Doctoral Researcher, Department of Economics and International Development, Middlesex University,

London, UK 2 Senior Lecturer, Department of Economics and International Development, Middlesex University, London, UK

3 Lecturer, Department of Design Engineering and Mathematics, Middlesex University, London, UK 4 Head, Department of Health and Education, Middlesex University, London, UK

Abstract

In recent times mankind is facing the existential threat as climate challenges have become graver. Bangladesh is

recognized worldwide as one of the high-risk countries to climate change. Due to its geographical location,

topography, high population density, poverty and lower adaptive competence it is considered to be highly

vulnerable to natural disasters in the world.. The coastal part of the country is the most vulnerable and the

southwestern part of the coastal area is identified as environmental handicap by climate change. This study

originated from experience of recent super cyclone Sidr that hit Bangladesh in November 2007 and cyclone Aila

that hit in May 2009. The study aims to explore the characteristics of the coastal population of Bangladesh. This

study was conducted in cyclone Sidr affected Amtali Upazila of Barguna District and in cyclone Aila affected

Koyra Upazila of Khulna district. Primary data was collected from households of the affected population by

using questionnaire survey. Statistical analyses were carried out to answer the research questions. The study explores the impact of climate change on the coastal people related to socio-economic, environmental,

demographic, water and toilet facilities, natural resources and access to mass media. It further explores the

changes observed by the affected people in their area and their knowledge about climate change and its affects

on their livelihoods.

Keywords: Climate Change, Coastal, Cyclone, Bangladesh

Introduction:

Bangladesh being a developing nation is struggling to overcome its underdevelopment and poverty, she faces

the additional challenges of climate change. Bangladesh is considered to be highly vulnerable in the context of

climate change though she had no role of causing it.Bangladesh is a small country with a population of

155,000,000 (WHO, 2012). Mountains and hills are covering three-fourths of the country with a funnel

shaped Bay of Bengal in the south have made the country more vulnerable to natural disaster.Bangladesh

is already evidencing the adverse impacts of global warming and climate change. The following impacts has

been observed: hotter summers, irregular monsoon, untimely rainfall, heavy rainfall over short period causing

water logging and landslides, very little rainfall in dry period, increased river flow and inundation during

monsoon, increased frequency, intensity and recurrence of floods, crop damage due to flash floods and

monsoonal rain, crop failure due to drought, prolonged cold spell, salinity intrusion along the coast leading to

scarcity of potable water and redundancy of prevailing crop practices, coastal erosion, river bank erosion, deaths

due to extreme heat and cold, increasing mortality, morbidity, prevalence and outbreak of dengue, malaria and

diarrhoea etc. (Climate Change Cell ,2008).Natural hazards such as floods, cyclones, droughts and earthquakes

are increasingly the source of immense misery to human lives, although the frequency of such events as a whole

may not be increasing (World Disasters Report, 1994). Cyclones today have become major portrait of climate

change. According to IPCC tropical cyclones and extreme weather events are due to greenhouse gas mitigation

efforts.

Bangladesh is plagued by innumerable natural disasters over the years. Tropical cyclones, tidal surges, tornados,

floods, droughts and river erosion are the main natural disasters that the country has faced so far. According UN

(2010) about four percent of worlds cyclone hit Bangladesh. Coastal areas, especially heavily populated mega

delta regions in South, East and South-East Asia, will be at greatest risk due to increased flooding from the sea

(IPCC, 2007). The frequency of occurrence of cyclones along the Bay of Bengal would increase as a response to

rising Sea Surface Temperature (SST), cyclonic intensity would also increase with a corresponding increase in

surge height in newly inundated shoreline (Ali, 1999).The coastal region of Bangladesh is situated in the south

of the country (Islam and Gnauck, 2010). The total length of Bangladesh coastline is 710 km long (Mohal et


22

al,2006) which is 32% of land area of Bangladesh and currently 40 million people live in the coastal areas of

Bangladesh (Pender,2008). The coastal people in Bangladesh are still living below the poverty line. Natural

disasters usually exacerbate the poverty stricken states of those who are in and around poverty threshold. The

main occupations of the coastal people are farming, fishing and agricultural labourer whose livelihood depends

mainly upon the natural ecosystem (Akter, 2009). Coastal areas are influenced by incidents deriving from long

distances away and not caused by human interventions, for example, cyclones and tsunamis have their origin at

sea but can destroy a coastal area and can leave a long lasting impact (Amin, 2008).

Figure 1. Coastal Zone of Bangladesh

Source: (Islam,2007:56)

In recent times, Bangladesh was hit by two consecutive cyclones Sidr in 2007 and Aila in 2009. Paul (2009) has

found that cyclone Sidr hits Bangladesh on 15thNovember, 2007 and has caused 3,406 deaths and over 55,000

sustained physical injuries. Heavy rains accompanying cyclones and tidal waves due to wind effects have

caused extensive physical destruction, casualties, damages of crops and livestock and flooding in total 30

districts across South Western coastal district of Bangladesh (GoB, 2008).Cyclone Aila hit the southern

coastline of Bangladesh hard in the month of May (25) in 2009. Satkhira and Khulna districts of Bangladesh

suffered the heaviest damage along with Bagerhat, Pirojpur, Barisal, Patuakhali, Bhola, Laksmipur, Noakhali,

Feni, Chittagong and Cox’s Bazar (Roy et al, 2009).

Recovery from natural disasters is another important issue that warrants attention and makes people destitute

and homeless. As these events occur frequently in Bangladesh, it is hard to recover from the losses, especially

those who are at the poverty level. This study has tried to explore the impact of climate change on the livelihood

of the coastal people in Bangladesh.

Materials and Methods:

The study was conducted in the South West part of Bangladesh (two most vulnerable Coastal Districts namely

Barguna and Khulna are selected.Baliatali village of Amtali upazila of Barguna was selected for data collection

as it was worst hit by cyclone Sidr (2007).Barabari village of Koyra upazila of Khulna district was selected for

data collection as it was devastated by cyclone Aila (2009). A total of approximately 1000 households were

selected by using the simple random sampling technique from the upazilas of these two districts. Structured

questionnaire was used for collecting information the head of the household. In absence of the head of the

household, the person who is responsible for taking the family decision was interviewed. Data collection period

was December and January 2011. Data analysis was carried out by Statistical package SPSS version 21.

Results

The analysis shows that 52 % respondents are from Cyclone Sidr affected areas and 48.2% respondents are from

cyclone Aila affected areas. About 87.6 % respondents of the Household heads are male, 72.6% households are


23

Muslim and 27.4 households are practicing Hindu religion. Most (47%) of the household heads age is between

31-50 years of age and 4.6 % household heads age are over 70 years above. From both the cyclone-hit areas,

92% household heads are married; only 4.8% household heads are widowed. 73.9% respondents were educated.

Among them 43.5% respondents have studied up to primary level and 25.2 % respondents have completed their

secondary education. The statistics shows that 44.2 % respondents are living in the affected areas from 21 to 40

years and 15. 6% respondents are residing in the area for last 61 to 80 years.

The table 1 below shows that the socio-economic characteristics of the households. About 30 percent household

heads are involved in agriculture related work and approximately 17 percent households are fishermen. About

82 percent household spouses do household works. Around 52 percent of household head earn between taka

2000-5000 every month and 37 percent household head earn less than 2000 taka per month.

Table 1: Socio-economic characteristics of the household head

It has been found that 66% households in the Sidr affected and 73.6% households in the Aila affected areas have

mobile phones. Approximately 23% and 15.4% households in the Aila affected areas have radio and television

in their households. Only 16.3% households in the Sidr affected areas have electricity in their household

whereas approximately 15.6% households have electricity in the Aila affected areas.Also, information collected

on mass media access. Only 5 percent households listen to radio everyday and 13.3 percent households watch

television 1 to 3 days in a week and approximately 98 percent households don’t read newspaper in the Sidr

affected areas. In the Aila affected areas, approximately 19 percent households listen to radio everyday, 23.2%

households watch television 1 to 3 days in a week and only 7 percent households read newspaper less than once

in a week.

Variables Frequency Percentage

(%)

Main Occupation of the Household Head

Agriculture

Fishing

Business

Household work

Unemployed Service

Skilled labourer

Unskilled labourer

Retired

Van or Rickshaw puller

Taxi or CNG or Bus driver

Other

290

161

60

101

39 37

53

129

9

8

79

1

30.0

16.6

6.2

10.4

4.0 3.8

5.5

13.3

0.9

0.8

8.2

0.1

Occupation of the spouse

Agriculture

Fishing

Business Household work

Unemployed

Service

Skilled labourer

Unskilled labourer

Van or rickshaw puller

Taxi or CNG or Bus driver

12

28

8 732

10

11

14

41

4

30

1.3

3.1

0.9 82.2

1.1

1.2

1.6

4.6

0.4

3.4

Monthly Income of the Household Head

Less than 2000 Taka

2000-5000 Taka

5000-10000 Taka

More than 10000 Taka

316

443

77

8

37.4

52.5

9.1

0.9


24

The study result also reveals that 52 percent households in the Sidr affected travels more than 100 kilometres to

fetch drinking water for household use and approximately 55 percent households have travel more than 100

kilometres in the Aila affected areas. The results also show some gender bias in regards to the person who is

responsible for fetching drinking water. Mostly wives (80 percent) are responsible for fetching drinking water in

Sidr affected areas and similar kind of results has been found in the Aila affected areas also 65.5% percent

wives are responsible for managing the drinking water for households.Also the findings reveals that

approximately 99% households use Deep tube well as their main source of drinking water in the Sidr affected

areas whereas as 52 % households’ main source of Drinking water in the Aila affected areas are Deep tube well

and 46% households use tube well for their drinking water.

The findings also present that about 87 percent households heard about climate change in the Sidr affected areas

and approximately 90 percent know about climate change in the Aila affected areas. About 71.4 percent

households heard about climate change from their friends or relatives and 41.2 percent households heard about

climate change from the non-government agencies. Around 48 percent households from both the cyclone-hit

areas strongly agreed that the weather pattern is generally changing. Approximately 98 percent households have

observed the changes in the weather pattern in the last 10 years. 70 percent household respondents said that

climate change is affecting them personally.

Table 2: Impact of Climate Change

Variables Frequency Percentage (%)

Climate change is affecting health To a great extent Somewhat Very little Not at all

591 332 20 30

60.7 34.1 2.1 3.1

Climate change is beneficial for you Yes No

45 907

4.6

93.2 How serious climate change in your area Not serious at all Moderately serious Neither Serious Very serious

10 16 4

351 592

1.0 1.6 0.4

36.1 60.8

Climate change is causing- Sidr Changes of livelihood Reduction of income Loss of employment Reduction of job opportunities Reduction of crop yield Increased food price Increase of family’s other expenses Hardship increased in daily life No impact Aila Changes of livelihood Reduction of income Loss of employment Reduction of job opportunities Reduction of crop yield Increased food price Increase of family’s other expenses Hardship increased in daily life No impact

473 412 233 188 475 462 424 444

1

439 436 242 212 430 415 430 441

5

93.8 81.7 46.2 37.3 94.2 91.7 84.1 88.1 0.2

93.6 93.0 51.6 45.2 91.7 88.5 91.7 94.0 1.1

Table 2 below is showing that approximately 61 percent household respondents reported that climate change is

affecting their health status, 93 percent household respondent thinks climate change is not beneficial for them

and around 61 percent participant households regarded climate change is a great threat to their area. Around 93

percent household respondents from the cyclone-hit areas stated that climate change is causing changes in their

livelihood. More than 90 percent respondents from both the areas said there is reduction of crop yield due to


25

climate change. About 94 percent respondents from the Aila affected areas and 88 percent respondents from the

Sidr affected areas reported that their hardship has increased in daily life due to climate change.

Discussion and Conclusion

The study result proved that the peoples of coastal Bangladesh are vulnerable to climate change. The local

people of selected villages expressed that numerous factors underscore the vulnerability to climate change

impacts. One notable aspect is that the livelihoods of the majority of the poor people. These poor people of

coastal zone are highly dependent on climate-sensitive sectors of the economy such agriculture, fishing etc. for

household energy, food security and water supply. The people perceived assessment show that they aware of

climate change and its impact on their livelihoods.

References:

Ali, A. (1999). Climate change impacts and adaptation assessment in Bangladesh. Climate Research. 12:109-116.

Akter, T.(2009). Climate change and flow of environmental displacement in Bangladesh. [Online] Available at:

http:// www.unnayan.org. [Accessed on 05/12/2012]

Amin, S.M.N. (2008). Studies on Coastal Environments in Bangladesh.AH Development Publishing

House, Dhaka-1205, Bangladesh.

Climate Change Cell (2008).Bangladesh Reducing Development Risks in Changing Climate.Department

of Environment of GoB, United Nations Development Programme (UNDP), Department for

International Development (DFID), Comprehensive Disaster Management Programme. Dhaka 25

March, 2008.

GoB (2008).Super Cyclone Sidr 2007: impacts and strategies for interventions. Ministry of Flood and Disaster

Management Dhaka. IPCC (2007).Climate change 2007: The physical science basis. Contribution of working group I to the Fourth

Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. S. Solomon, D. Qin, M.

Manning, Z. Chen, M. Marquis, K.B. Averyt, M. Tignor, H.L. Miller (Eds.). Intergovernmental Panel on

Climate Change (IPCC), Cambridge University Press, New York.

Islam, R (2007). Pre and Post-Tsunami Coastal Planning And Land-Use Policies and Issues In Bangladesh.

In: Proceedings of the workshop on coastal area planning and management in Asian tsunami-affected

countries, 27-29 September, 2006,Bangkok, Thailand. pp. 55-79.

Islam, S. N., &Gnauck, A. (2010, September). Climate change versus urban drinking water supply and

management: a case analysis on the coastal towns of Bangladesh. In World Wide Workshop for Young

Environmental Scientists: 2010 proceedings (No. WWW-YES-2010-15).

Mohal, N., Khan, Z.H., &Rahman, N. (2006).Impact of Sea level Rise on Coastal Rivers of Bangladesh. Dhaka: Institute of Water Modelling (IWM).Assessment conducted for WARPO, an organization

under Ministry of Water Resources.

Paul, B.K. (2009) .Why Relatively Fewer People Died?The Case of Bangladesh’s Cyclone Sidr.Natural

Hazards, Vol. 50, No 2,pp 289-304.

Pender, J (2008). Community led adaptation in Bangladesh. Forced Migration Review. October 2008, Issue

31, pp.54-55.

Roy, K., Kumar, U., Mehedi, H., Sultana, T. and Ershad, D. M. (2009). Initial Damage Assessment Report of

Cyclone AILA with focus on Khulna District. Unnayan Onneshan-Humanity Watch- NijeraKori, Khulna,

Bangladesh, June 23, 2009. pp- 31.

United Nations. (2010). Cyclone Aila: Joint UN Multi-Sector Assessment & Response Framework. United

Nations, New York

WHO (2012).Country Profile: Bangladesh. [Online] Available from: http://www.who.int/countries/bgd/en/ [Accessed 13/08/2013]

World Disasters Report. (1994).

http://www.unnayan.org/


26

ESTIMATION AND ANALYSIS OF NUTRITIONAL STATUS OF SCHOOL GOING

GIRLS IN Hill ECOSYSTEM:

AN AGROECONOMICAL AND SOCIO PERSONAL ANALYSIS IN CLIMATE

CHANGE PERSPECTIVES

Das Rama1, Acharya S.K. 2, Lalnunpuii Sophie3

1Assistant Professor, Barrackpore Rastraguru Surendranath College, Barrackpore, West Bengal, Kolkata

,India;

2Professor, 3M.Sc. Scholar, Department of Agriculture Extension, Faculty of Agriculture, Bidhan Chandra

Krishi Viswavidyalaya, India

Abstract :

Throughout the world, malnutrition, especially in climate change perspectives, has been delved as the deadliest

and menacing pro-factor causing great hindrance towards ensuring a decent and secure livelihood. Basically,

the problem of malnutrition has got social, political, technical and motivational dimensions as well. Education

being the basic driving force for any economy and progress per se, the school going children need to be focused

and attended comprehensively so that they can grow up themselves as healthy citizens having belligerent mind and body. But unfortunately almost 80% of the school going children in India are suffering from deleterious

impact of malnutrition leading to poor performance, malfunctioning, stunned growth, vulnerable to diseases,

morbidity and so on. Instantly, the entire exercise over the research text of child nutrition has confirmed that

nutrition is basically a complex phenomena and cannot be managed in the single intervention. It’s not bee a

single chance factor either. In this study, the nutrition has been conceived as a composite configuration of food

intake, calorie intake, high value food intake, sanitation and total calorie intake. It depicts that the predictor

variables like age, training, family size, subsidiary income, parents education, crop yield etc. have become

predominant factors in preparing a discernable difference between high and low level of nutrition status among

the respondents.

Key Words : Climate change, food intake, family size

Introduction

The brut of climate change is going to have blistering effect on agriculture and general health, especially in the

North Eastern part of India. The increasing mean temperature will certainly aggravate the average BMR, the

unabated increase of harmful germs and bacteria, the revisiting of malaria and increase of malnutrition at

last.The school going girls will one of the worst recipients of the derelict impact of global warming and climate

change. More contaminated and less amount of water availability, will make these girls vulnerable to bad

metabolism and fragile nutritional status. Education being the basic need for any economic and social progress

per se, the school going children is required to be focused and attended comprehensively so that they can grow

up themselves as the healthy citizens for having belligerent mind and body. But unfortunately, almost 80% of

the school going children in India is suffering from deleterious impact of malnutrition leading to poor

performance, malfunctioning, stunted growth, vulnerable to diseases and morbidity and so on.

Malnutrition is not only a biological phenomena, it is a synergy of biophysical as well as social processes.

Access to food, sufficient and nutritionally rich, is also one of the discerning factors that impacts heavily on the

nutritional aspects on the school children. The analysis of malnutrition needs a complex framework gridding all

the cognate factors like size of holding, parental education, food intake volume, energy intake, chronological

age, ill behavior of agriculture, information seeking behavior, medical and health care and so on.

Nutritional status of children is influenced by diet. Better dietary and its diversity helps ensure adequate intake

of essential nutrients especially for growing school going children. While assessing the effect of dietary scores

and nutritional status of urban Iranian and Indian school children, it has been found that total food intake scores

increased with better height status of the children. In both countries, severely and moderately stunted children

had lower total mean scores than those who had normal and above average height. Wasting was also associated

with lower total mean scores. Analysis of data for individual food groups showed that increasing weight was

associated with higher scores for almost all food groups in India. In Iran, mean scores for vegetables, beverages, sweets and fats increased with increasing weight. Heights for age z-scores were positively associated with a

mean score for pulses in countries and dairy products, beverages and fats. Higher BMI was associated with

higher scores for cereals, fruits, vegetables, dairy products, mixed dishes, beverages, sweets and fats.

(Hooshmand S et. al., 2013)


27

The study reveals that the prevalence of under and malnutition in the sampled adolescent girls was high; 9%

were severely thin (below the 5th percentile value of BMI-for-age for girls), 16% moderately thin (in between

the 5th and the 15th percentile value of BMI-for-age), and 0.3% obese (above the 95th percentile value). The age

pattern of the prevalence of (severe and moderate) thinness followed the U-shaped curve. Results revealed that

26% of the girls were thin, with body mass index (BMI)-for-age <15th

percentile). (Alam Nurul et. al., 2010)

Cross-sectional study after examining data over 800 school children aging between 5-11 led to the view that

49.5% of them were found to be malnourished out of which Grade I malnutrition was most common (35.5%)

followed by grade II (11.4%) and grade III (2.6%) malnutrition. (Neelu Saluja et. al., 2010)

Children and adolescents are considered to be the backbone of any nation. Materials and methods for data

collection: distribution of children by age and sex; distribution of children as per their mean height and mean weight, nutritional status of children as per age and sex (wasting); nutritional status of children as per age and

sex (stunting). The nutritional hazards of school children under study were found to be low, more so in girls

than in boys in spite of the mid-day meal programme being run in all the schools. (J. Semwal et. al., 2006)

Severe stunting was also viewed in all age groups while studying on the nutritional status of Khasi girls with age

groups of 6-12 by using the method of personal interviews employing thereby questionnaires and 24-h dietary

recall. While most girls of 7-9 were suffering from grade I malnutrition, girls of age group 10-12 years had the

highest example of moderate malnutrition. Average energy and protein consumption was found significantly

lower than recommended dietary allowance in all the age groups. Implementation of sociologic community

factors that require nutritional package with the availability of key nutrients are much required that could ensure

the growth in children. (Murugkar Dipika Agrahar, 2005)

Objectives:

(i) To assess the nutritional status of school going girls in terms of agro-economic and socio-personal

variables.

(ii) To assess the role of agro-economic and socio-personal variables in characterizing the primary

respondents as dependent variable.

(iii) To assess the interrelationship, both at Inter and Intra level, between the dependent and independent

variables.

(iv) To derive some strategic implication from the study for subsequent application towards mitigating the

problem on nutrition management in a broader perspective.

Research methology:

Selection of Locale :

The locale of the study was selected based on the following criteria :

STAGE – I : Champhai district was selected purposefully because of its advantageous geographical

location and respondents of school children of the age category we were looking for.

STAGE – II : Champhai district is divided into four rural development blocks namely, Khawbungi,

Khawzawl, Ngopa and Chamhai. For data collection, one block, Champhai block is selected

because of its location, accessibility and four localities from it were selected subsequently.

STAGE – III : Four localities, namely, Vengsang, Kahrawt, Vengthlang and Vengthar were selected to make the sample respondents representative geographically, culturally and socially.

SELECTION OF RESPONDENTS :

CHAMPHAI

BLOCK CHAMPHAI PURPOSIVE

VILLAGE PURPOSIVE

VENGSANG

VENGTHLANG

VENGTHAR

KAHRAWT

17 Sample 378 Population

14-Sample 222 Population



Random Selection

APPROACH

NAME LEVEL

DISTRICT

PURPOSIVE


28

INDEPENDENT VARIABLES : Age (X1), Education (X2), Parental education (X3), Family Size (X4), Size of

Homestead Land (X5), Size of Agricultural Land (X6), Agriculture Income (X7), Subsidiary Income (X8), Total

Income (X9), Total Crop Yield (X10), Home Consumption (X11), Training (X12).

DEPENDENT VARIABLE : Nutritional Status (Y)

STATISTICAL TOOLS USED :

1 CV (Co-efficient of Variation)

2 r (Co-relation)

3 dy (Path Analysis)

dx

4 D2 (Discriminant Function Analysis)

Result & discussion :

TABLE–I : EFFICIENT OF CORRELATION BETWEEN NUTRITIONAL STATUS (Y) Vs TWELVE (12)

INDEPENDENT VARIABLES

Variables

R

Val

ue

Age (X1) 0.83**

Education (X2) 0.77**

Parents Education (X3) 0.01

Family Size (X4) 0.09

Size of Homestead Land (X5) 0.00

Size of Cultivable Land (X6) 0.05

Family Income (Agri) (X7) 0.01

Family Income (Subsidiary) (X8) 0.02

Total Family Income (X9) -0.01

Total Crop Yield (X10) 0.13

Home Consumption (X11) 0.14

Training (X12) -0.14

** Significant at 1% level of significance.

The above table presents the coefficient of correlation between nutritional status and the twelve (12)

independent variables. It has been found that the variable age and education have recorded significant and

positive correlation with nutritional status.

This indicates that respondents of higher age and higher education have higher nutritional status ultimately than

those with lower age and lower education. This is because with the increase in age their demand for food is

higher, as they consume more food their calorie consumption grows higher which ultimately leads to higher

nutritional status.

TABLE – II : PATH ANALYSIS : DIRECT, INDIRECT AND RESIDUAL EFFECT

Variables Direct Effect Indirect Effect Total Effect Substantial Indirect Effect

I II III

Age (X1) 0.9212 (1st ) -0.0952 0.826 (1st ) -0.0573 (X2) -0.0324 (X5) -0.0114 (X8)

Education (X2) -0.0608 0.8342 (1st ) 0.7734 (2nd ) 0.8680 (X1) -0.0333 (X5) -0.0197 (X8)

Parents Education (X3) 0.0348 -0.0225 0.0123 -0.0534 (X1) 0.0471 (X9) -0.0442 (X8)

Family Size (X4) -0.0008 0.0925 0.0917 -0.0607 (X7) 0.0502 (X8) 0.0489 (X5)

Size of Homestead Land (X5) 0.2007 (2nd) -0.0812 0.1195 -0.0782 (X6) -0.0328 (X9) -0.0311 (X1)

Size of Cultivable Land (X6) -0.1177 0.1658 (2nd) 0.0481 0.1334 (X5) 0.0263 (X8) 0.0150 (X11)

Family Income (Agri) (X7) -0.124 (3rd) 0.1376 (3rd ) 0.0136 0.0868 (X9) 0.0533 (X11) 0.0307 (X8)

Family Income(Subsidiary)(X8) -0.1149 0.1297 0.0148 0.0911 (X1) 0.0526 (X9) -0.0299(X11)

PARADIGM-I

PREDICTORS PREDICTED

X4

X5

X3

X8

X6

X7

X9

X11

AGE(X1)

EDUCATION(X2) X10

X12

CORRELATION BETWEEN PREDICTORS VARIABLES & NUTRITIONAL STATUS


29

Total Family Income (X9) 0.1218 -0.13 -0.0082 -0.0884 (X7) -0.0540 (X5) -0.0496 (X8)

Total Crop Yield (X10) 0.0012 0.1331 0.1343 -0.0996 (X7) 0.0959 (X1) 0.0784 (X11)

Home Consumption (X11) 0.1155 0.0232 0.1387 (3rd) -0.0572 (X7) 0.0298 (X8) 0.0285 (X9)

Training (X12) -0.0126 -0.1221 -0.1347 -0.1725 (X1) -0.0411 (X7) 0.0365 (X11)

Residual Effect : 0.2776

The above table presents the path analysis between nutritional status and 12 exogenous variables in terms of

direct, indirect and residual effect.

It has been found that the direct effect of age (X1) on nutritional status has so far been the highest followed by size

of homestead land (X5) and family income through agriculture (X7). In determining nutritional status of the

children along with age the other important considerations are size of homestead land and family income though agriculture. So modernization of agriculture as well as effective management of homestead land both would be

imparting on the nutritional level being achieved by the children.

The highest indirect effect has been exerted by education (X2) and two other variables in this arena, have been, size of

cultivable land (X6) and family income through agriculture (X7). So, the partial effect or intervening roles of these

variables are significant in ultimately characterizing the nutritional level of the children.

The variable family income through agriculture (X7) has routed the highest indirect effect of as many as four variables

to characterize the performance of consequent variable, nutritional status of the children. Again, the economic

variable is playing the pivotal role to decide on the nutritional status to be achieved by the children.

The residual effect is just only 27.76% to conclude that around 72% of the total variability embedded with the

consequent variable has been successfully explained by having the combination of 12 exogenous variables. This has

amply justified the relevance and utility of the inclusion of these all exogenous variables to conceptualize, both

functionally and epistemologically the endogenous variable nutritional status of children.

TABLE – III : DISCRIMINANT ANALYSIS : NUTRITIONAL STATUS (Y) AND 12 INDEPENDENT VARIABLES

Variables L(I) L(I)*D(I) L(I)*D(I)*100/D2 values Ra

n

k

Age (X1) -0.9456 2.6951 66.2830 I

Education (X2) -0.3310 0.8936 21.9781 II

Parents Education (X3) -0.0344 0.0120 0.2963

Family Size (X4) 0.1879 -0.0329 -0.8088

Size of Homestead Land (X5) -0.0180 0.0905 2.2259

Size of Cultivable Land (X6) -0.0018 0.0249 0.6128

Family Income (Agri) (X7) -0.0039 0.3252 7.9983 III

PARADIGM : II

FAMILY SIZE [X4]

TOTAL FAMILY INCOME [X9]

TOTAL CROP YIELD [X10]

AGE [X1]

NUTRITIONAL STATUS [Y]

HOME CONSUMPTION [X11]

PATH ANALYSIS :

NUTRITIONAL STATUS (Y) Vs 12

EXOGENOUS VARIABLES


30

Family Income (Subsidiary) (X8) -0.0016 0.0969 2.3834

Total Family Income (X9) 0.0013 -0.1154 -2.8386

Total Crop Yield (X10) 0.0023 -0.2280 -5.6073

Home Consumption (X11) -0.0097 0.2389 5.8761

Training (X12) 0.1860 0.0651 1.6008

D-SQUARE = 0.40660166E+01, HOTELLING T-SQUARE = 0.81320340E+02,

F VALUE FOR TESTING T-SQUARE = 5.821 WITH 12 & 67 D.F., CENTROID DISCRIMINANT SCORE FOR GROUPS 1 AND 2 ARE -8.7829 AND -12.8489

The above TABLE-III presents the discriminant function analysis to assess the discriminatory function in

creating a difference between high and low level behavior of dependent variable and the respective contribution

of different independent variable that has gone critical in creating this gap. The discriminant function analysis

in TABLE-III reveals that the variable age has got the highest discriminatory function in creating variation of

nutritional status among the respondents. It has been followed by other two variables, education and agriculture

income.

So, these three variables in order of importance might be conceived while management strategy will be taken

out to ensure the level of nutritional status among the respondents.

PARADIGM : III

.

Limitations of the study

Despite of being a unique one the present study has suffered some limitations :

The concept of nutrition and its management across the world is still evolving and not even a single

standard parameter is available to measure the nutrition of body or that of the mind. Some scales are used

wherein elements of fluidity remains as an intrinsic limitation to use it.

The number of variables should have been more and some of them have become overlapping by nature.

Inclusion of some case study would have better in substantiating the residual effect, the extraneous events/

character that could not be explained.

Future scope of research:

The limitations of the study as discussed earlier itself generate the future scope of research. So, the following

are the future study of research by granting the present one as a modestly conducted study in areas of child

nutrition :

Generating process and product indicator to measure the functional aspects of nutritional management and

their impact on child health.

Age (X1)

Education (X2)

DISCRIMINANT FUNCTION : NUTRITIONAL STATUS Vs 12 CASUAL FACTORS

Income from Agriculture (X12)

High Nutritional Status (Y)

Low Nutritional Status (Y)


31

Gender issues as prevalent in farm families in regard to accessing equity of nutritional status.

Role of IT and ICT in managing nutrition and tackling problem of malnutrition by providing e-forecasting

and e-messages.

Modeling the complexity and polymorphic character of nutrition management by applying advanced statistical tools and approaches.

Production, perception and application of changed management in the perspective of global warming and

climate change.

Participatory nutrition management by using traditional food and ethnic medicines, especially for rural and

tribal communities.

Conclusion:

The entire exercise over the research text of child nutrition has proved that the nutrition is basically a complex

phenomenon and cannot be managed in the single intervention; it’s not been a single chance factor either. In this study, the nutrition has been conceived as a composite configuration of food intake, calorie intake, high value food

intake, sanitation and total calorie intake. It depicts that the predictor variables like age, training, family size,

subsidiary income, parents education, crop yield etc. have become predominant factors in making a discernable

difference between high and low level of nutrition status among the respondents.

Some important indicators however are missing from the study and these are Body Mass Index (BMI),

haemoglobin level in blood and anaemic level and other disease frequently and vulnerability level. There are

elements of contradictions between amount of food consume and calorie intake, proportion between common

food and high value food, explicit hunger and implicit hunger and so on. In near future, the earth population

will be more hungry and the hunger map will keep swallowing almost 80% of the geographical area. Every new

nation against every month will be joining the row of hungry nations.

The climate change and global warming are exerting more and more stress of the productive behavior of

different crops, fishes and animal resources too. It is estimated that in the next five years another 400 million

people will turn hungry to add to unmanageable social entropy. That’s why the present research is leaving

behind threads of future research for modeling a resilient system towards managing malnutrition and

confronting the challenges of hunger, poverty and silence.


32

USE OF CLIMATE INFORMATION PRODUCTS AS AN ACT OF ADAPTATION

AND MITIGATION OF CLIMATE CHANGE ESPECIALLY IN AGRICULTURAL

SECTOR IN INDONESIA Rion S.Salman

1 Ayufitriya

2

BMKG (Indonesian Agency for Meteorology Climatology and Geophysics), Indonesia

1 University of Pattimura, Pattimura Meteorological Station, Ambon

2 Susilo Meteorological Station, Sintang

Abstract

With the development of today's world, climate change is one of the phenomena that have a significant impact,

mainly for developing countries like Indonesia. Indonesia is known as an agraris country, relying on agriculture

in meeting food needs, both domestically and abroad. Clearly and obviously, climate change has a negative

impact on agriculture in Indonesia. This condition can lead to changes in cropping patterns which resulted in

failed harvests, and other negative effects that interfere with the availability of food in Indonesia.It has to be

faced with doing adaptation as well as early mitigation. This step is necessary to reduce the risk so as to improve food security. BMKG (Indonesian Agency for Meteorology Climatology and Geophysics) has a role and

function as data processing and providing analysis of climate-related parameters. This information by the

competent authority would then be used to support the adaptation and mitigation of climate change. In support

of these actions, as well as the active participation of society and government is needed. Which include

dissemination and sustained provision of information effectively and efficiently. Cooperation and international

solidarity to support adaptation initiatives and to strengthen our contribution to climate change mitigation is

important.

Keywords:Adaptation and Mitigation, Climate Change, Agriculture

Introduction Indonesia is known as an agraris country whichmostly it’s resident utilizesthe farm produceas their

livelihood. Therefore agriculture is considered to be a very significant sector. In addition to maintaining food

sustainability, agricultural field also has important role as determinant of economics wheel within the

country.Regardless of that, linkages between agricultureand climate is very closely related.

Climate change is believed to be one of scientific and social issues which terrorizing the world nowadays,

no exception in Indonesia. Climate change refers to a rise in the average temperature of Earth, where alterations

of the weather require statistical data in a period of time used to identify those changes.

Basically climate change cannot be associated with extreme events, because the conclusions aboutexistence

of climate change retrieved based on weather statistics. Instead, atmospheric disturbancecaused by global

warmingwhich indirectly createclimate even weather conditionswill be more extreme. Happened globally, but

the impact is felt varies locally.

With the development of today's world, GHG (Greenhouse gases) emissionthat accumulating continuously

will certainly make the Earth’s temperaturerises from its normal valuefurthermore will cause global warming. According to IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change)during the last 100 years, theglobal mean

surface temperatureraiseabout 0.74°C.If GHG concentrationdominates in the atmosphere, CO2 (Carbon dioxide)

has doubled from pre-industrial times, this will spur the average warming up to 3°C.

Figure 1. Estimated Global Mean Temperature


33

This global warming is followed by other factors that become indicators of climate change namelyincrease

in air pollution, sea level rise, also frequency of extreme weather and shift of seasons,both on the beginning or

starting time of the season, as well as its length.

In agricultural sector, examples of climate change impacts are charred leaves on vegetables and addition of

pests disease attack caused by temperature increase. Shifts in seasons can affect the cropping pattern and rainfall

pattern. Changes in wind pattern could bring aboutspread of pests that disrupted pollination. Due to high increase in sea level, influx of salt water into the rice field of coastal areas may causefailed harvests.This

indirectly reduces farm productivity, which lead to vulnerability of economic conditions in Indonesia.

How are our actions in response to this problem?Of course we should take some actions which directed and

oriented towards development that is currently going on. Same effort does not always producesimilar results in

the society. Therefore, early adaptation and mitigationis not only limited about socialization but also sustainable

measures.

BMKG (Indonesian Agency for Meteorology Climatology and Geophysics) is a non-departmental

government agency (officials) responsible directly under the president, carrying out duties in the field of

meteorology, climatology, air quality and geophysics in accordance with statutory provisions in force.BMKG

has a role andfunctionas data observing, processing, alsoanalyzing weather and climate-related parameters, as

well as providing it into understandableinformation by public.

The availability ofclimate information products is expected to be used for people especially farmers as well as related competent authorities, example for determine policy in agricultural sector andassociated activities

such as time of planting, seeding and crops preservation.

Utilization of those information products as an act of adaptation and mitigation measures to reduce the

climate change risks. We can anticipate from the resulting impact so thatfood resilience can be maintained and

continuously improved.

Materials and methods Making of climate information products are obtained from weather and climate data processing at each

station of BMKG that spread throughout Indonesia, including air quality data which observed atGAW (Global

Atmosphere Watch), West Sumatra.Databases which analyzedcan be used to study climate change that

happened by studying the trend. Trends of increasing in temperature, humidity, and precipitation, including

precursors of climate change process. The analysis activities for example; 1. Calculate value or inclination of climate parameters.

2. Generate trend of precipitation data such as dry and wet spells, annual rainfall trend, maximum or minimum

monthly rainfall.

3. Analyze the properties and length of the season towards its normal values.

4. Analyze level of wetness and dryness with SPI method, etc.

Kinds of climate information, especially for farmers, can be divided into operational information or routine

and non-routine. Routine Information includes maps seasonal forecasts, potential flood prone, soil water

availability, alsoatmosphere dynamics andrainfall forecasting. Non-routine information contains atlas ofaverage

elements (temperature, wind, humidity, precipitation) of 30 years period, flood and droughtvulnerability maps,

climate maps and agro-climatic suitability.

Figure 2. Rainfall Properties and Monthly Forecast


34

Figure 3.Starting Time of Dry Season Forecastand Soil Water Availability

Adaptive actions which can be carried out by peasants are for example, crop calendar adjustment,

technological innovation, selection of plant species that resistant against environmental changes.

Methods that should be prepared as mitigation measures for example is reducing emissions or flue gases,

not burning forests or land on a large scale, and processing agricultural waste into useful products. Improvement

farm management such as irrigation, agronomic practice and use of nutrients will increase the level of field

productivity. Theseefforts not only we do as contributions at this time but also as inheritance for future

generations.

Dissemination should be done inongoing basis, through mass media, print and electronic media. Television,

radio, internet, newspaper or bulletin which function as information dissemination tools.

Results and discussion Climate information products play an important role and are needed in the field of agriculture. Among other

benefits, it is useful to determine the varieties of crops that will be cultivated, preparations in anticipation of

pests attack, as well as the time of planting and harvesting.Moreover, it is necessary for climate informationto be

disseminatedperceptibly and orderly so it can be accessed by users of both the community and farmers.

In overcome upcoming climate uncertainties, adaptation and mitigation is a step that we need to do as a

joint action for global food safety and security.Cooperation and international solidarity to support adaptation

initiatives and to strengthen our contribution to climate change mitigation is important. Activities handling

requires dedication, consistency, and support from each side.

References Aldrian, E., Karmini M., Budiman. 2011. Adaptasidanmitigasiperubahaniklim Indonesia.BMKG.

BMKG. 2014. MeteorologidanKlimatologi. (http://bmkg.go.id/BMKG_Pusat) BMKG.2014. PrakiraanMusimKering Indonesia.BuletinMetorologi, KlimatologidanGeofisika (2014), p36.

Indonesia.

Dansgaard, W.et al., (1982) A New Greenland Deep Ice Core. Science, 218, 1273-1277.

IPCC. 2007. Climate Change 2007. The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth

Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [Solomon, S., D.Qin, M.Manning,

Z.Chen, M. Marquis, K.B. Averyt, M.Tignor and H.L. Miller (eds.)]. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge,

United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA.

Pittock, A.B, ed. (2003) Climate Change: An Australian Guide to the Science and Potential Impacts. Canberra,

ATC: Australian Greenhouse Office. p239.

Rahmstorf, S. (2003).The Current Climate.Nature, 421,699.

RatagMezak. A. 2008.PerubahanIklim :Isu-isuIlmiah. Jakarta :BadanMeteorologidanGeofisika. UNFCCC. 2007. Technologies for adaptation to climate change. UNFCCC. Bonn,

Germany.40pp.(http://unfccc.int/resource/docs/publications/tech_for_adaptation_06.pdf)

http://bmkg.go.id/BMKG_Pusat

http://unfccc.int/resource/docs/publications/tech_for_adaptation_06.pdf


35

THE CLIMATE CHANGE PERCEPTION IN SIKKIM HILL ECOSYSTEM OF

INDIA: A PARTICIPATORY PERCEPTUAL ANALYSIS

S. K. Acharya1, K. P. Kaleon

2 .1Professor and Former Head, Department of Agricultural Extension, Bidhan Chandra Krishi Vishwavidyalaya,

, India

2 PG Scholar, Department of Agricultural Extension, Bidhan Chandra Krishi Vishwavidyalaya, West Bengal,

India.

Keywords:

Climate change, Hill ecosystem, Global Warming, Perception Indicator, Socialization Dynamics, Health

Mentoring, Geo-Diversity

Abstract

The brunt of climate change on hill ecosystem is very much conspicuous and discernible across the world. The

melting of snowline, the rise of mean winter temperature, the loss of biodiversity etc, all are enough indicative

to estimate the imminent losses and deleterious impact on agriculture, human life, biodiversity or summative;

which may be elicited as social ecology. The present study has selected the Hill ecosystem of North Sikkim as a

research locale to estimate the people’s perception on the impact of climate change on this fragile ecosystem.

The variables Y1 (Climate change perception), Y2 (Yield change perception), Y3 (Water bodies perception),

Y4 (Health problem perception), Y5 (Species decline perception), Y6 (Perception indicator change), Y7

(Landslide perception), Y8 (Distance perception), Y (Comprehensive climate change perception) the

following variables has been selected and customised as core of predict ants, against which the following

variables X1 (Age), X2 (Education), X3 (Family size), X4 (Media interaction), X5 (Per capita holding size),

X6 (Cropping intensity), X7 (Technology socialization status), X8 (Family income), X9 (Expenditure after

health), X10 (Animal health mentoring), X11 (Location of the market), has been selected as to have causal

impact on the above stated perceptual variables. It has been found that the variable X2 (Education) has got

decisive impacts on climate change perception. While path analysis has been carried out the variable X3 (Family

size) has exerted the HIDE (Highest Indirect Effect) on climate change perception. The correlation analysis has

evinced that the variables X2 (Education), X6 (Cropping intensity), X8 (Family income), have been

significantly correlated with climate change perception. The Principle Component Analysis depicted that the following key factors through the respective conglomeration of variable have impacted on the process of climate

change perception and the factors are Farm capacity, Health Ecosystem, Geo- Diversity, Media Complex,

Socialization Dynamics, Resource based climate change perception, Landslide perception. Canonical

correlation analysis has been conducted to determine whether two set of variables are in independent of one

another or conversely determining the magnitude of the relationship.

Introduction

Climate change and Global Warming have taken the civilization by storms, any sensible minds anywhere

in the world is now taking Climate Change as an effective threat to the very existence of its own and

surroundings. After climate change and global warming, there are ten sub-thousands of factors which can be classified as natural, meteorological, astronomic anthropogenic and a mix of all these mentioned already. For a

good count of times, the good earth has passed through a cycle of global warming and cooling, the ice ages.

The present global warming scenarios, as experts across the world, claim that it is mostly due to anthropogenic

factors. The change in night temperature, rainfall pattern, setting of monsoon and winter, withdrawal of

snowlines from its previous expansion, all are indicators and predictors of climate change. It is due to global

warming, the yield of most of the conventional crops shall decline, floral and faunal diversity would be

affected, the coastal lines will be inundated enough to promote migration.

The Hill Ecosystem is possibly going to be the worst hit. The melting of snowlines and its movement, the

change of river courses and drying out of water bodies, the decline of productivity and bio-diversity increased

seismic vulnerability all would take the ecosystem with higher fragility and vulnerability. The unplanned

urbanization in hill ecosystem, mindless construction work including depletion of dolomite and multistoned

buildings are being associated with deleterious impact of global warming hill ecosystem is now at the crux of global concern. Any global threat should not be confined only to minds of experts or scientists the threat of

climate change must properly be perceived by the people across the profession and pursuits. Perception is the

experience based disposition of learning and idea. Even with increasing propensity of cyclones, extreme

summer and winter, rising of sea levels, landslides and avalanches, people do not perceive it from the point of

global warming and climate change, yet. Befitting extension strategy has also been the need of the hour to

involve people in the people’s participatory movement to mitigate climate change risk and disaster. So the


36

present study has envisaged the People’s Perception down the line of experience and elements of learning,

people’s perception should be conceived as one of the most important predictant to be estimated through a set

of exogenous variables in estimating climate change and its effect on social ecology as well as natural

ecological set up at length.

There is a worldwide consensus that global warming is a real, rapidly advancing and widespread threat

facing humanity this century. Scientists have presented evidence and tested models to substantiate this truly alarming fact (Chaudhary & Aryal, 2009). In order to understand how human beings would respond to climate

change, it is essential to study people's perceptions of climate and the environment in general. (Vedwan et

al.2001). Human expectations regarding weather and climate sometimes lead to perceptions of climate change

which are not supported by observational evidences (Rebetcz 2000). Studies focusing on the socioeconomic

aspects of climatic change are sparse and have almost exclusively restricted their analysis to the impact of

environmental modifications on agricultural production (Scott et al. 1990). Micro‐level studies of the impact of

climatic variability on people's livelihoods and their consequent responses are relatively few. Thus, this study

is important in a way that it takes into account local people's awareness of weather fluctuations and aims at

understanding the localized impact of the climate in this region which are not directly visible but changes,

nevertheless, are happening indirectly. This kind of study can prove to be vital to arrive at an understanding of

patterns in human responses, for future studies. This sort of work was needed to know‐ 'what one thinks' and

'how one thinks' about the changes in climatic patterns and their impacts; and to give an account of

understanding and responses about the changes in the plains. It is increasingly argued that many climate

change studies, whilst effective in alerting policymakers to the possible effects of climate change, have had

limited usefulness in providing local-scale guidance on adaptation, and that the climate change community

should learn from experiences gained in food security and natural hazards studies (Richard, 2004). The analysis

begins with the recognition that vulnerability exists today, vulnerability that will not disappear on its own and

may indeed be growing, and with the desire to make active interventions to reduce the vulnerability (Richard,

2004).The scientific knowledge on impacts of climate change is increasing all the time, as are practical

experiences in responding to adaptation needs. This knowledge needs to be exploited.

Objectives To estimate the People’s Perception on Global Warming and Climate Change and their effect on Hill

Ecosystem.

To estimate the people’s perception on Global warming through a set of predictor’s variables.

To assess the interactive relationship between predictors and predictant variable, both intra and inter

levels.

To derive some policy implication that could be well implicative in designing and formulating micro

level policy for mitigating Climate Change, especially in hill ecosystem.

Methodology

Locale of research

The present study was conducted at Phodong forest block and Mangan forest block (Mangan sub-

division) of North District (Sikkim). The districts block and villages were selected purposively.

Sampling The purposive as well as simple random sampling techniques were adopted for the present study. It

may be termed as multistage random sampling procedure. There were total 66 respondents.

Pilot study A pilot study was conducted in the selected villages before constructing the data collecting devices.

Variables and their measurements

Independent variables Age (X1) , Education (X2) , Family size (X3) , Media interaction (X4) , Per

Capita Holding size (X5) , Cropping intensity (X6) , Technology socialization status (X7) , Family income (X8) ,

Expenditure after health (X9) , Animal health mentoring (X10) , Location of the market (X11).

Dependent variables Climate Change Perception (Y1), Yield Change Perception (Y2), Water

Bodies Perception (Y3), Health Problem Perception (Y4), Species Decline Perception (Y5), Perception Indicator

Change (Y6), Landslide Perception (Y7), Distance Perception (Y8), Comprehensive Climate Change Perception

(Y)

Statistical tools used for analysis of data Descriptive analysis, Co efficient of correlation, Path analysis, Factor analysis, Regression, Canonical

correlation analysis


37

Results and discussion

TABLE-1: CO-EFFICIENT OF CORRELATION BETWEEN CCCP (Y) AND ELEVEN INDEPENDENT

VARIABLES(X1.....X11)

Sl. No. r-Value

AGE (X1) -0.08

EDUCATION (X2) 0.343**

FAMILY SIZE (X3) 0.019

MEDIA INTERACTION (X4) 0.008

PER CAPITA HOLDING SIZE (X5) -0.195

CROPPING INTENSITY (X6) -0.242*

TECHNOLOGY SOCIALIZATION STATUS (X7) 0.011

FAMILY INCOME (X8) 0.253*

EXPENDITURE ON HEALTH (X9) 0.094

ANIMAL HEALTH MENTORING (X10) 0.145

LOCATION OF THE MARKET (X11) -0.089

CCCP= COMPREHENSIVE CLIMATE CHANGE PERCEPTION

(Significance of r at 0.05 level= 0.242)*

(Significance of r at 0.01 level= 0.315) **

RESULT:Revelation:

Table-1: presents the coefficient of correlation between Comprehensive climate change perception

(Y) and eleven independent variables. It has been found that the variables Education (X2) and Family income

(X8) have recorded positive and significant impact on Comprehensive climate change perception. The other

variable Cropping intensity (X6) has recorded significant but negative impact on Comprehensive climate

change perception (Y).

IMPLICATION: Education in tandem with family income also projects a massive impression on CCCP by promoting

effective understanding of the ongoing natural and climatological phenomenon.Education, cropping intensity

and family income are 3 such characters that have been interwovenly impacting on CCCP. The operational link

can be like that Education provides a pseudo urbanite disposition and a utilitarian role in increasing cropping

intensity by adapting modern technology being supported by family income. These altogether have driven the

educated and trend mind for guessing and estimating climatological change in a comprehensive manner. MODEL-1: COEFFICIENT OF CORRELATION BETWEEN CCCP (Y) AND ELEVEN INDEPENDENT

VARIABLES

X2= EDUCATION (O.343) **

X6= CROPPING INTENSITY (-0.242) *

X8= FAMILY INCOME (0.253) *


The variables Education (X2), Cropping intensity (X6) and Family income (X8) have recorded strong and discernible impact on comprehensive

climate change perception. TABLE-2: PATH ANALYSIS: CCCP (Y) Vs ELEVEN EXOGENOUS VARIABLES

VARIABLES TOTAL

EFFECT

DIRECT

EFFECT

INDIRECT

EFFECT

DOMINATING INDIVIDUAL

EFFECT

I II III

AGE (X1) -0.08 -0.165 0.085 0.053

(X10)

0.039

(X3)

-0.021

(X2)

EDUCATION

(X2) 0.343 0.245 0.098

0.092

(X3)

0.079

(X8)

0.33

(X6)


38

FAMILY SIZE

(X3) 0.019 0.252 0.233

-0.089

(X2)

-0.072

(X8)

-0.048

(X11

)

MEDIA

INTERAC

TION (X4)

0.008 0.016 0.008 0.055

(X3)

-0.034

(X1)

0.029

(X10

)

PER CAPITA

HOLDING

SIZE (X5)

-0.195 -0.131 0.064 -0.056

(X2)

-0.018

(X8)

0.010

(X1)

CROPPING

INTENSIT

Y (X6)

-0.242 -0.076 0.166 -0.108

(X2)

0.077 (X3)

-0.069 (X8)

TECHNOLOG

Y

SOCIALI

ZATION

STATUS

(X7)

0.011 -0.002 0.009 0.026

(X1)

-0.025

(X8)

0.020

(X5)

FAMILY

INCOME

(X8)

0.253 0.206 0.047 0.094

(X2)

-0.088

(X3)

0.025

(X6)

EXPENDITUR

E AFTER

HEALTH

(X9)

0.094 -0.003 0.091 0.094

(X3)

0.073

(X10)

-0.050

(X1)

ANIMAL

HEALTH

MENTORI

NG(X10)

0.145 0.168 0.023 -0.052

(X1)

0.036

(X3)

-0.023

(X11)

LOCATION

OF THE

MARKET

(X11)

-0.089 -0.129 0.04 0.094

(X3)

-0.052

(X2)

0.030

(X10)

Residual calculation= 0.376


RESULT:

Table-2: presents the path analysis by decomposing the coefficient of correlation into direct, indirect

and residual effect. It is depicted that the variable Family size (X3) has exerted the highest direct effect and the

variable Education (X2) has exerted the highest total effect on Comprehensive Climate Change Perception (Y). Both the variables Family size (X3) and Education (X2) have routed the highest effect of as many as 4 times

for each on the CCCP. Family size and Education, both are representing persuasive capability to generate

ediation on CCCP by steering their associational impacts. So, in studying the CCCP these two variables can be

considered as to have their strategic role in estimating CCCP. MODEL-2 PATH ANALYSIS: - CCCP (Y) Vs ELEVEN EXOGENOUS VARIABLES

HDE (X3) (0.252)

HIDE (X3) (0.233)

HIIE (X3), (X2) -4 Times

HDE= HIGHEST DIRECT EFFECT

HIDE= HIGHEST INDIRECT EFFECT

HIIE= HIGHEST INDIRECT INDIVIDUAL EFFECT


X2= EDUCATION

X3= FAMILY SIZE


39

TABLE 3: REGRESSION ANALYSIS (BACKWARD): CCCP (Y) Vs ELEVEN CAUSAL VARIABLES

VARIABLES B VALUE t VALUE

X2 (EDUCATION) 0.59 2.92

MODEL SUMMARY:

MODEL R R2

ADJUSTED

R2

SE

1 0.34 0.12 0.10 6.20

RESULT:

Table-3: presents the stepwise regression to estimate the causal impact of pre dominant variable over

the consequent variable Comprehensive Climate Change Perception (Y). Education (X2), formal, informal or

traditional, whatever may it be helps perceive and analyse the surroundings and the set up in which a man has

thrown into, survives, excels or gives in. Here in this education has been retained as a solitary but very

important factor to characterize Comprehensive climate change perception (CCCP). A CCCP has become

resultant to the interactions amongst and between the 8 dependent variable viz. Y1-Y8. This has incorporated

the perception about whether the climate is really changing or the health problems of animals are increasing.

The bio-diversity aspects have also been covered including landslides occurrence and local indicators for

climate change. These all simmers the need for responses in the form of cognitive learning, motor learning and perceptual learning and ultimately to be integrated and reticulated called CCCP (Y). So, Education (X2) here

has worked as the synergistic character and as well as an integrated process to ultimately build up a canopy of

CCCP.

MODEL-3: CAUSAL VARIABLES RETAINED AND THEIR EFFECT ON CCCP (Y)

OR COMPREHENSIVE CLIMATE CHANGE PERCEPTION

R2=0.12

MODEL 4: CANONICAL SELECTIVITY AND CHOICE BETWEEN : Y1, Y2, Y6, Vs X1-X11 VARIABLE

MODEL-4: CANONICAL SELECTIVITY AND CHOICE BETWEEN Y1, Y2, Y6 Vs X1-

X11 VARIABLE

Y20.471

Y10.062

Y60.024

(X1)0.829

(X2)0.361

(X3)0.283

(X7)0.015

(X11)0.274

X1=Age Y1=Climate change perceptionX2=Education Y2=Yield change perceptionX3=Family Size Y6=Perception Indicator changeX7=Technology socialization statusX11=Distance perception

MODEL 5: CANONICAL SELECTIVITY AND CHOICE BETWEEN: Y3, Y4, Y5, Y7 Vs X1-X11

VARIABLE


40

MODEL-5: CANONICAL SELECTIVITY AND CHOICE BETWEEN Y3, Y4, Y5, Y7 Vs

X1-X11 VARIABLE

(X8)-0.284

(X5)-0.192

(X6)-0.488

(X9)-0.003

(X4) -0.070

(X10)-0.173

(Y3)-0.062

(Y4)-0.062

(Y5)-0.062

(Y7)-0.062

X4=Media Interaction Y3=Water bodies perception

X5=Per capita holding size Y4=Health problem perceptionX6=Cropping Intensity Y5=Species decline perceptionX8=Family Income Y7=Landslide perceptionX9=Expenditure after health

X10=Animal Health Mentoring

MODEL 6: It has been found that factor-6 has accommodated the following variables: X5, X12 within

a common bracket and has been renamed as Resource based climate change perception.

MODEL-6 FACTOR ANALYSIS: CONGLOMERATION OF VARIABLES INTO FACTOR

(COMPONENT)

%

variance explained (7.29)

FACTOR -6

X5= PER CAPITA HOLDING SIZE

Y1= CLIMATE CHANGE PERCEPTION (CCP)

Conclusion Hill ecosystem by nature and operation is very complex and sensible to even a tiny change in the entire

atmospheric behaviour, as per IPCC observation whole of North East in India is very much prone to seismic

behaviour and vulnerable to climate change and Global warming. So, long and henceforth, the climate change

concerns reviews confined to scientist community and elite Diaspora of intellectuals. The present study with

Kaleidoscopic vision has attempted to depict pathway to construct people’s perception or being affected by a

social and ecology echilons. This has amounted to a policy formulating process wherein the variable found

significantly attuned to climate change perception may be segregated and put to a policy formulation process.

Education still remains a very critical input to make people aware of and operational enough towards making the

ecology of the hill amply resilient in the face of climate change. The down to earth reality is that people are

becoming increasingly knowledgeable about the ecological health and its capability to absorb the third of

climate change but it has turned very difficult to make them adequately operational to sufficiently perform for what you need to do right now. The outcome of the research thus would go a long way in institutionalising

external efforts with that of internal potentials for creating climate managers atleast one for each villages so that

a good leadership can be built up, both at the top and in a valley of the Hill ecosystem.

References Chaudhary, P. and Aryal, K. P. (2009) ‘Global Warming in Nepal: Challenges and Policy Imperatives’, Journal

of Forest and Livelihood, 8(1): 5-14.

Rebetcz, M. (2000) ‘Public expectations as an element of human perceptions of climate change’, Climatic

change. Springer, Netherlands, 32: 495‐509.

Richard J.T. K., (2004) ‘Approaches, Methods and Tools for Climate Change Impact, Vulnerability and

Adaptation Assessment’, Keynote lecture to the In-Session Workshop on Impacts of, and Vulnerability

and Adaptation to, Climate Change, Twenty-First Session of the UNFCCC Subsidiary Body for Scientific and Technical Advice, Buenos Aires, Argentina.

Scott M.S., Rosenberg, N. J., Edmonds, J. A. and Cushman, R. M. (1990) ‘Consequences of climate change for

human environment’, Clim Res. 1: 63‐79.

Vedwan, N. and Rhoades, R.E. (2001) ‘Climate change in the Western Himalayas of India: a study of local

perception and response’, Climate Research. 19: 109–117.


41

COMPLEXITY OF CLIMATE CHANGE ADAPTATION; CASES OF HOUSING

ADAPTATIONS TO FLOOD IN AMBALANTHOTA AND BATTICALOA, SRI

LANKA C. Chethika Abenayake & Deshani Herath

Abstract

Flood is a climate exacerbated disaster in Sri Lanka which causes increasing property losses and threats to life.

In front of the callous experience of flood, a wide range of stakeholders responds to prevent, mitigate and

recover from the disaster. Housing is a key element at risk of these stakeholders, therefore, housing adaptations

–building and retrofitting- of individuals has been considered as the unit of observation in this study. The study has been built on a set of empirical evidences of community based housing adaptations observed in three

selected flood-prone urban areas in Batticaloa an Amblanthota, Sri Lanka. The documentation narrates the

complexities of adaptation practices and questions the blurry nature of ostensible typologies adaptation. This

emphasizes the urge of holistic approach to perceive climate change adaptation.

Key Words: Adaptation, Flood, Housing

Introduction Climatic disasters are likely to increase the intensity and frequency of occurrence which incur costs not only in

terms of losses to human life and properties but also as cumulative negative impacts on natural resources at long

run (Abenayake, 2012, p-2). A broad spectrum of stakeholders, ranging from internationally-collaborated parties

to individuals, makes continuous attempts to adapt to climate change exacerbated disasters. Adaptation to

climate change is “an adjustment in natural or human systems in response to actual or expected climatic stimuli or their effects, which moderate harm or exploits beneficial opportunities” (IPCC, 2007, p-6).

Flood is a climate exacerbated disaster which frequently occurs in Sri Lanka and housing adaptation has

obtained a great deal of concern in the adaptation process to flood. Physical planning institutions of the country

are legally empowered to make decisions on the safety of housing locations while planning and engineering

divisions of local authorities regulate building materials and construction methods to make human settlements

resilient. Besides, there are multilateral organizations and NGOs which involve in large-scale housing projects

in Sri Lanka especially at resettlement outreach. In amidst, the settlers build and retrofit houses responding to

floods.

In much of literature, adaption practices have been mainly classified into two types as planned adaptation and

autonomous adaptation. ‘planned adaptation is the result of a deliberate policy decision that is based on an

awareness that conditions have changed or are about to change and that action is required to return to, maintain

or achieve a desired state while the autonomous adaptation involves the changes that natural and most human systems will undergo in response to changing conditions irrespective of any policy plan or decision’

(Richard.J.T.Klein, 2003, p. 3). Autonomous adaptation takes place without the direct involvement of the

planning agencies and planned adaptation takes place with the direct intervention of planning agencies’ (Samuel

Fankhauser, 1998, p. 69).

Nevertheless, there are some authors emphasize the fuzzy states of these classification, ‘in the present world

the connection between these two adaptation practices is surely blurry’ (Malik, Xin Qin , & Stephen , 2010, p.

4). In that light, this paper recaps a set of observations which elaborate how autonomous and planned adaptation

responses are interwoven in practice while emphasizing the hybrid nature of adaptation processes with reference

to the selected case studies at Batticaloa and Ambalanthota,

Sri Lanka.

Method of Study The observations are made at three urban wards Thiraimadu,

Puliyankulm in Batticaloa and Wanduruppa in Ambalntota

(refer figure 1). Rainfall variations of two selected cases, -

Batticaloa and Ambalanthota- had been already proved as

climate change exacerbated (Bandara et al, 2013). Figure 2

illustrates the variation of extreme rainy days in the selected

cases based on the findings of Bandara et al, 2013.

The research has based on a qualitative discussion which supported with the findings obtained through semi –

structured questionnaires followed by an In-depth interview

and direct observations which exposit community based

housing adaptations to flood in selected case studies. Three cluster-based stratified random samples were selected

Figure 1: Location Map of the Study Areas


42

including three different return periods as annual, ten years and fifty years probability of occurrence of flood.

Figure 2: Rainfall - No. Of days above 95% in Batticaloa Area and Hambanthota Area

Results and Discussion

This section recaps a narrative reading of Batticaloa and Ambalanthota flood adaptation which emphasizes the

pragmatic complexity of adaptation responses. Ambalanthota is a declared urban area of Sri Lanka which has

provisions to prepare development plans under the Urban Development Authority Act, No.41, 1978 of Sri

Lanka. In Ambalanthota Development plan, Wanduruppa ward has been identified as a vulnerable location for flood and ,as a response, a set of building regulations have been introduced ,through a community participatory

approach, to guide the new construction and retrofitting to be disaster resilient. In these regulations, it has stated

to elevate the foundations of residential buildings up to the recorded height of 25 year return period floods

(DRSLUP Plan, 2013). However in practice, many of the houses have been elevated but only up to the level of

annual floods. During the interviews it was revealed that people’s decision has based on a trade-off between the

frequency of flood experience and the cost of construction. Further, some of the residents have even had

elevated their housing foundations before the regulation has been made. Whereas in Puliyanthivu, where there

are no such regulations available, people have elevated their housing foundations responding to the recorded

height of 50 year return period floods.

Figure 3: Elevated Foundations in Case floods Study Areas

Elevated Foundations up to annual floods in Wanduruppa, Ambalanthota

Elevate houses located in areas prone to 50 year cyclic floods in Puliyanthivu, Batticaloa

Elevated foundations, toilets of donor driven houses in Thiraimadu, Batticaloa


43

An Elevated roads with side

drains

Slight Differentiation between

natural drainage paths and planned

drains

Community modifications to

planned drainage

Figure 4: Planned and modified storm water drains in Thairamadu, Batticaloa

Though people have constructed the houses in Puliyanthivu, there had been government incentives during the constructions period. However, the government incentives had not provided any guidelines flood-resistant

designs during construction process. In Thiraimadu ward of Batticaloa, there are planned resettlements with

donor-driven housing where many of the houses located in flood prone areas are elevated through increasing the

height of foundations as a planned decision. Further, planned efforts have elevated the roads to make sure the

smooth access and evacuation during disaster and designed the capacity of roadside drainage as to be adequate

to the extreme rainfall scenarios. However, during the first flood wave after construction, the residents had

noticed some differentiations of the paths of natural drainage and planned drainage. In response, they have

modified these paths through community initiatives to make sure the speedy surface runoff.

The above narration brought-up the complexities of typological approach of classifying adaptation as planned

and autonomous. On one hand, preparation of regulations and adaptation of donor-driven houses can be

considered as planned adaptations but not devoid-of autonomous adaptation due to community led modifications and community participatory process in planning where many of their local-technical know has been mingled.

On the other hand, community-designed flood-resistant houses can be considered as autonomous adaptations but

not devoid of planned adaptation due to the government incentives provided for housing. These responses are

made in interconnected social systems where planned decision is making and community decision making

influence each other whereas decision makers and local community too has overlapping identities in their role.

In this context, this paper argues that typological approach of adaptation is incomplete in explaining the

pragmatic facet of adaption and therefore urges a holistic approach which addresses the complexities.

References Abenayake, C.C., (2012) Stakeholder Responses to Climatic Disasters: a case of Batticaloa, Sri Lanka,

Monograph, CEPT University Press, Ahmadabad, India

Bandara, P.K.B.D.B., Jayasinghe, A.B., Abenayake, C.C., Mhanama, P.K.S., (2013) ‘Study on the trends of

rainfall and temperature patterns to identify the influence of climate variation in coastal cities in Sri Lanka’ Proceedings of FARU Conference, December- 2013, Sri Lanka

IPCC, (2007) ‘Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability - Contribution of Working Group II to the Fourth

Assessment Report of the IPCC’ [online] URL: www.ipcc.ch/pdf/assessment-

report/ar4/wg2/ar4_wg2_full_report.pdf, Date of accessed: 08/05/2013

Malik, A., Xin Qin, & Stephen, C. S. (2010) ‘Autonomous Adaptation to Climate Change: A Literature Review’

[online] URL:

http://www.gwu.edu/~iiep/adaptation/docs/Autonomous%20Adaptation%20Lit%20Review%2021%20Aug%20

2010.pdf, Date of accessed: 04/01/2014

Practical Action (2013) Disaster Risk Sensitive Land Use Planning- Ambalantota, Sri Lanka

Richard.J.T.Klein. (2003) Adaptation to Climate Variability and Change: What is Optimal and Appropriate?

[online] URL: https://unfccc.int/files/adaptation/adverse_effects_and_response_measures_art_48/application/pdf/200205_klein

_paper.pdf, Date of accessed: 14/02/2014

Samuel Fankhauser, J. B. (1999) Weathering climate change: some simple rules to guide adaptation decisions

[online] URL:

http://elmu.umm.ac.id/file.php/1/jurnal/E/Ecological%20Economics/Vol30.Issue1.Jul1999/853.pdf, Date of

accessed: 10/02/2014

http://www.ipcc.ch/pdf/assessment-report/ar4/wg2/ar4_wg2_full_report.pdf

http://www.ipcc.ch/pdf/assessment-report/ar4/wg2/ar4_wg2_full_report.pdf

http://www.gwu.edu/~iiep/adaptation/docs/Autonomous%20Adaptation%20Lit%20Review%2021%20Aug%202010.pdf

http://www.gwu.edu/~iiep/adaptation/docs/Autonomous%20Adaptation%20Lit%20Review%2021%20Aug%202010.pdf

https://unfccc.int/files/adaptation/adverse_effects_and_response_measures_art_48/application/pdf/200205_klein_paper.pdf

https://unfccc.int/files/adaptation/adverse_effects_and_response_measures_art_48/application/pdf/200205_klein_paper.pdf

http://elmu.umm.ac.id/file.php/1/jurnal/E/Ecological%20Economics/Vol30.Issue1.Jul1999/853.pdf


44

URBAN AND PERI-URBAN AGRICULTURE IN BUILDING RESILIENT CITIES IN

INDIA Alokananda B Mukherjee

Ph.D. Student, Jadavpur University, Kolkata, India

Abstract:

As per the publications of findings by IPCC scientists in 2007, the Earth’s climate was already changing and due

to the inertia in the global climate system it is impossible to avoid all impacts even with the most drastic of greenhouse gas emissions reductions. Many cities, already trying to manage the pressures of population

explosion, are at the risk of getting affected by sea-level rise, floods, hurricanes or severe food supply problems

caused by altered rainfall pattern, droughts, hailstorms etc. that affect agricultural production in their hinterland.

The urban poor, often living in the most vulnerable parts of cities and lacking the capability to adapt to climate-

related impacts or opt for alternatives, will be affected the most. Social vulnerability and food insecurity are two

major issues that have to be addressed for a futuristic resilient city. The first part of the paper outlines the

vulnerability of Indian urban poor and the meaning and usefulness of resilience in climate change adaptation

and mitigation. The second part discusses urban and peri urban agriculture (UPA) as an important strategy in

enhancing food security for the urban poor ,diversification of income opportunities, greening the city,

improving the urban climate, productive reuse of urban organic wastes, and reducing disaster risk. Integrated

Resource Recovery Project in Titagarh-Bandipur, Kolkata, India is a case-study analyzed to understand how

conventional methods of composting of separated solid waste and recycling of waste and sewage water is being utilized as urban agriculture. The paper explores avenues for researchers, community, as well as policy makers

for awareness, discourse and way-finding.

Keywords- climate change, vulnerability, resilience, urban agriculture, waste recycling

Introduction:

Climate change is inevitable and so are the threats to urban life and their food security. Towns and cities in

developing countries, which are simultaneously dealing with issues of poverty, inadequate infrastructure, and

environmental degradation, are particularly vulnerable. As per The United Nations Population Fund (2007), the

impacts of climate hazards disproportionately affect people ‘who live in slum and squatter settlements on steep

hillsides, in poorly drained areas, or in low-lying coastal zones’. Decline in agricultural productivity and natural

disasters can lead to increased higher food prices, food shortages, epidemics and sudden settlement of those

displaced by the shock (Maxwell, 2008). This will directly affect the life of the urban poor making the situation worse.

Climate vulnerability: the indian scenario

As per the Special Report on “Managing the Risks of Extreme Events and Disasters to Advance Climate Change

Adaptation” (IPCC, 2012), Vulnerability is “the propensity or predisposition to be adversely affected.” Cities

and communities are differentially exposed and vulnerable and this is based on factors such as location,

economic condition, education, gender, age, class/caste, disability, and health status. India with its 7,500 km

long predominantly low-lying and densely populated coastline is particularly vulnerable.

2.1 Observed Climate Trends, Variability and Extreme Events

As per reports of IPCC, key observed past and present climate trends and variability in India include increasing

trends in annual mean temperature, warming more pronounced during post monsoon and winter, increase in

extreme rains in north-west during summer monsoon in recent decades, lower number of rainy days along east coast (Kripalani et al., 1996; Lal et al.,1996; Lal et al., 2001b; Singh and Sontakke, 2002; Lal, 2003) etc.

Whereas study of changes in extreme events and severe climate anomalies shows frequency of hot days and

multiple-day heat wave has increased in past century reporting a large number of deaths, mainly among the

poor, elderly and labourers in the Indian state of Andhra Pradesh, Orissa; serious and recurrent floods in north-

east states of India during 2002, 2003 and 2004, a record 944 mm of rainfall in Mumbai, India in 2005 leading

to loss of over 1,000 lives with loss of more than US$250 million and others. Aila, a tropical cyclone which hit

the Mega-Delta of Sundarbans in India and Bangladesh with a wind speed of110 km/hr in 2009 rendering over

8,000 people missing and about a million homeless in the two countries also bear testimony of the amplified

vulnerability of the delta region.

2.2 Poverty and Illiteracy

A substantial proportion of the Indian population is living below social and economic poverty thresholds, about

22% Below Poverty Line (as per Poverty Estimates, 2011-12 by Government of India Planning Commission). With increased urban-rural migration, the urban poor are highly vulnerable to climate change because of their

limited access to profitable livelihood opportunities and limited access to areas that are fit for safe and healthy

habitation. Coupled with illiteracy, poverty subverts the ability of the people to pursue the usually long-term

sustainable development goals in favor of the immediate goal of meeting their daily subsistence needs. Poverty

drives poor communities to abusive use of land and other resources that lead to onsite degradation and usually

macro scale environmental deterioration. Roughly 1.37 crore households, or 17.4% of urban Indian households


45

living in slum (as per 2011 Census report) encroaching idle lands, water edges, disaster-prone areas and other

ecologically fragile lands that have been set aside for protection purposes such as conservation of bio

diversity, soil and water, bear indication to its precarious position.

2.3 Threat to Urban Food Security

The prevalence of malnutrition among poorer and marginal groups in many Indian cities is likely to aggravate

due to decline in agricultural productivity and natural disasters leading to increased higher food prices, food shortages, epidemics. In a study at the International Rice Research Institute, the yield of rice was observed to

decrease by 10% for every 1°C increase in growing-season minimum temperature due to global warming (Peng

et al., 2004). Moreover, productivity of the Indo-Gangetic Plain, home to 500 million people, is under threat.

The Himalayan Glaciers feeding the major Rivers in this belt are receding faster than in any other part of world

and are likely to disappear by the year 2035 or sooner if the earth keeps warming at the current rate, as per IPCC

projection. Thus Climate change will affect food security in many ways - Food availability (lower agricultural

production due to extreme weather events, change in availability of land and water), Food access (loss of

livelihood assets, infrastructure, income, employment etc.), food supply stability (food price fluctuation,

dependency on imports and food aid), as well as Food utilization (food safety hazards associated with pests,

animal and human disease) (J. Custot et al., 2012). Efforts are needed to gain full understanding of the complex

structures and roots of social vulnerability of food insecurity.

Resilience as a concept for climate change adaptation

The challenges posed by climate change and its interaction with cities, urban poverty and food security are

being recognized globally and hence Resilience is emerging as the current research frontier. Resilience has been

defined by IPCC as “the ability of a system and its component parts to anticipate, absorb, accommodate, or

recover from the effects of a potentially hazardous event in a timely and efficient manner, including through

ensuring the preservation, restoration, or development of its essential basic structures and functions.” One could

say that resilience is the reverse of vulnerability.

A two-pronged approach of mitigation and adaptation is being called for:

• Mitigation-limiting the effects of climate change through measures to significantly reduce green house

gas emissions.

• Adaptation -taking steps to minimize the expected impacts of climate-change.

Urban agriculture - pathway to resilient cities

As socio-ecological systems, resilient cities are characterized by increased self-reliance and their capacity to

manage or bounce back from stress or disastrous events. In many cities, urban agriculture is being

promoted as a permanent feature in sustainable city planning and resilience building contributing to both

adaptation and mitigation measures.

4.1 Case-study: Integrated Resource Recovery Project in Bandipur, Kolkata, India

The composting of separated solid waste and recycling of waste and sewage water used to be a common practice

in many Asian cities. These conventional methods are being renewed as urban agriculture is found to be

providing employment, food and nutrition, land management and environmental improvement.

The Integrated Resource Recovery Project area comprising of Titagarh (an industrial town) and Bandipur (a

peri-urban land unit) is located on the east bank of the river Hooghly (a tributary of the Ganges), 22 km north of Kolkata within the metropolitan area, with an estimated population of 344,700 in 2001. Most of the people are

industrial workers and belong to the economically weaker section. Titagarh has an old sewage treatment plant

(STP) with a capacity to treat 9.08 million litres of sewage per day (mld). As this plant was found to be

inadequate, a new stabilisation tank system has been built in Bandipur with a capacity of 14.10 mld to bring the

total capacity to 23.18 mld. The system at Bandipur includes waste water treatment and reuse for aquaculture

and is termed as the Resource Efficient Stabilisation Tank System. The system is used for the treatment of raw

sewage discharged by the people of Titagarh and parts of Barrackpore municipality, mainly from commercial

and domestic sources. The Bandipur STS is based on a natural process where sunlight, water hyacinths and

phytoplankton are used to clean the water and hence is much cost-effective.

As a result, the stabilization tanks used as sewage-fed fish ponds yield about 7 tonnes of fish per hectare per

year. Whereas, an area of 23.8 hectares of land irrigated with treated effluent from the STP, and 5.35 hectares irrigated with untreated waste lifted from the canal, produces around 30 to 32 types of vegetables estimating

about 3,060 tons annually. Some of the vegetables are spinach, Chinese onion, coriander, cauliflower, kidney

beans, lettuce, etc.

An important feature is the participation of stakeholders: the Kolkata metropolitan Water and Sanitation

Authority, the local authorities, the fishermen who lease the ponds and the rice farming households all are

involved in the project. As per Agenda 21, the UN’s 1992 blueprint for sustainable development, the

participation of stakeholders in environment improvement projects should be institutionalized- in this case a

peri-urban community to manage its own waste water treatment and reuse.


46

Results and discussion

Thus urban agriculture can play a strong role in enhancing food security for the urban poor, greening the city

and improving the urban climate, while stimulating the productive reuse of urban organic wastes and reducing

the urban energy footprint. Urban agriculture decreases the vulnerability of the urban poor and increases their

coping capacity by expanding income opportunities, enhancing access to nutritious food and diversifying food

sources and thereby reducing the impacts of disturbances in food supply from rural areas and increases in food prices. It also enhances community building and acts as a source of innovation and learning. Farming in low

lying areas keeps them free from construction so that floods have less impact, storm water runoff is reduced, and

excess water is stored enhancing infiltration. Fresh food is produced close to the city and hence leads to

reduction in urban energy use for transport, cooling, storage, packaging, etc. Productive reuse of the organic

wastes and urban wastewater in agricultural practices helps in conservation of fresh water as well as energy. But

Formation of strong and efficient institutional, financial as well as community level support systems is

important for the sustenance and management of proposed climate-resilient models for the urban poor.

Metropolitan, municipal and other local government institutions directly concerned with urban and regional

planning and development can play a proactive and coordinating role in integrating urban agriculture, greening,

local biodiversity monitoring and other similar activities that build urban resilience.

Acknowledgement: I would like to thank my Ph.D. Supervisors - Dr. Suchandra Bardhan, Associate Professor, Jadavpur University,

India and Prof. Santosh Ghosh, President, Centre for Built Environment, Kolkata, India, for all their support and

guidance in this research work.

References:

i. IPCC, 2007: Climate Change 2007: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability. Contribution of Working

Group II to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, M.L. Parry, O.F.

Canziani, J.P. Palutikof, P.J. van der Linden and C.E.Hanson, Eds., Cambridge University Press, Cambridge,

UK, 976pp.

ii. IPCC, 2012: Managing the Risks of Extreme Events and Disasters to Advance Climate Change

Adaptation. A Special Report of Working Groups I and II of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [Field, C.B., V. Barros, T.F. Stocker, D. Qin, D.J. Dokken, K.L. Ebi, M.D. Mastrandrea, K.J. Mach, G.-K.

Plattner, S.K. Allen, M. Tignor, and P.M. Midgley (eds.)]. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK, and

New York, NY, USA, 582 pp.

iii. Newman, P., & Jennings, I. (2008). Cities as sustainable ecosystems: principles and practices. Island

Press.

iv. Davoudi, S., Shaw, K., Haider, L. J., Quinlan, A. E., Peterson, G. D., Wilkinson, C., ... & Davoudi, S.

(2012). Resilience: A Bridging Concept or a Dead End? “Reframing” Resilience: Challenges for Planning

Theory and Practice Interacting Traps: Resilience Assessment of a Pasture Management System in Northern

Afghanistan Urban Resilience: What Does it Mean in Planning Practice? Resilience as a Useful Concept for

Climate Change Adaptation? The Politics of Resilience for Planning: A Cautionary Note: Edited by Simin

Davoudi and Libby Porter. Planning Theory & Practice, 13(2), 299-333

v. Custot, J., Dubbeling, M., Getz-Escudero, A., Padgham, J., Tuts, R., & Wabbes, S. (2012). Resilient Food Systems for Resilient Cities. In Resilient Cities 2 (pp. 125-137). Springer Netherlands.

vi. Dubbeling, M., Campbell, M. C., Hoekstra, F., & van Veenhuizen, R. (2009). Building resilient cities.

Urban Agriculture Magazine, 22, 3-11.

vii. Dubbeling, M., & de Zeeuw, H. (2011). Urban Agriculture and climate change adaptation: ensuring

food security through adaptation. In Resilient Cities (pp. 441-449). Springer Netherlands.

viii. Gupta, S. (2002). Integrated resource recovery project in Kolkata, India. RUAF Magazine.

ix. Cities, V. Climate Change And The Urban Poor. Available at

http://demo.indiaenvironmentportal.org.in/files/climate%20change%20and%20the%20urban%20poor.pdf

x. Press Note on Poverty Estimates, 2011-12, Government of India Planning Commission, July 2013


47

CHALLENGES IN LOCAL RESPONSES TO CLIMATE CHANGE; A CASE OF

URBAN ADAPTATIONS IN SRI LANKA

P.K.S.Mahanama; G.Janithra, Wimaladasa and C.Chethika, Abenayake

Faculty of Architecture, University of Moratuwa, Sri Lanka

Climate change is regarded as a development challenge worldwide. National Climate Change Adaptation

Strategy of Sri Lanka emphasizes the need to integrate climate change adaptation into urban planning to make

the cities more resilient to the consequences of climate change. Yet, many of these adaptation strategies lack implementation in practice. In such context, this research is focused on identifying the challenges in integrating

climate change adaptation into urban planning in Sri Lankan context. The study comprised with a

comprehensive literature review on the limitations of local levels responses to climate change as recognized at

different parts of the world. The challenges of Sri Lankan practice has identified throughthe opinions ofexperts

who has engaged in urban planning projects which aims at responding climate change adaptation. The findings

at local level have been compared with the most stated challenges at global level. The findings of the study will

be highly useful to make decisions at planning practice and policy spheres at global south which shares common

goals of development.

Key Words:climate change adaptation, urban planning, development challenges

Background of the study Climate change is regarded as a fundamental human development challenge worldwide (The national climate

change policy of Sri Lanka, 2012). The studies undertaken by the climate change secretariat has repeatedly

emphasized the country’s vulnerability to the impacts of climate change and the need of strengthening

adaptation practices (National Climate Change Adaptation Strategy for Sri Lanka2011 to 2016, 2010,). Those

impacts affect the country both physically and economically where this should be regarded as a crucial issue

(National Climate Change Adaptation Strategy for Sri Lanka, 2010). National Climate Change Adaptation

Strategy (NCCAS) for Sri Lanka (2011 – 2016) has emphasized the need of integrating climate change

adaptation into urban planning as a proactive response; “…climate change adaptation must be considered from

the early stages of development planning through the implementation of major projects and programmes”

(NCCAS, 2010). The experiences of national, sub national and sector-based planning initiatives suggest that

there are common constraints in mainstreaming adaptation to climate change (Lebel, Li and Krittasudthacheewa, 2012). In such context this research is focused on identifying the issues and limitations in integrating climate

change adaptation into urban planning in Sri Lanka.

Method of Study

Integrating climate change adaptation into urban planning has been challenging many countries over last

decades(Chinvanno and Kerdsuk, 2013). The study has reviewed a wide range of literature including books,

articles, reports and other publications about the challenges faced in integrating climate change into urban

planning at different parts of the world. Identified limitations were coded into three themes: Policy, legal and

institutional framework; capacity and knowledge; and information as indicated in Table 1.


48

Table 1: Summary of the limitations identified by different literatures

Existing issues and challenges in Sri Lankan context were identified with the support of selected set of

practitioners who has engaged in urban planning projects, programmes, planswhich aims at responding climate

change adaptation. Key informant interviews were conducted through a semi-structured questionnaire to collect

these opinions.

Results and discussion After identification of key challenges in Sri Lankan context, those were compared and contrasted with the issued identified through the comprehensive literature review. The summary of challenges identified through the

interviews with local experts isrecapped in Table: 2 as per the priority given by expert’s opinion. According to

the experts’ priority, the most prominently stated challenge was lack of cohesion among the sector-specific

institutions. All of the challenges which has addressed at global level were valid for Sri Lankan context yet the

relative priority revealed a slight difference in some factors. For instance, Lack of data availability has been

mentioned as a key challenge in many of the countries whereas in Sri Lankan context, the accessibility to data

was stated as the key issue. Next, the findings were developed into a network diagram (figure 2) and evaluated

based on fractural connectivity to identify the interconnections and significance of challenges. As per the

findings, the most crucial roots were absence of integrated open access data infrastructure facility; lack of

applicability of planning tools and techniques to integrate climate change adaptation into urban planning;

absence of strong implementation mechanism for National Climate Change Policy; lack of knowledge and ability of institutions to address the climate change and poor climate change prediction models for Sri Lanka

with lack of reliability. These challenges need to be well addressed in policy spheres to make Sri Lankan cities

more resilient to climate change.

Factor / Limitation Contributing Author

Poli

cy, le

gal

an

d i

nst

itu

tion

al

fram

ew

ork

Institutional Limitations - Lhendup, P. 2012

- Lebel, L., L. Li, C. Krittasudthacheewa, et al.2012

- Thomas G. Measham& Benjamin L. Preston & Timothy F.

Smith & Cassandra Brooke & Russell Gorddard& Geoff

Withycombe& Craig Morrison. 2011

Competing priorities




- Climate and Development Knowledge Network 2013

Limitations on

governmental

policies and

strategies

- Lhendup, P. 2012

- Lebel, L., L. Li, C. Krittasudthacheewa, et al. 2012

Ca

pa

cit

y

Issues with leadership - Thomas G. Measham& Benjamin L. Preston & Timothy F.



Financial capacity:




- Lhendup, P. 2012

Inadequate socio-

economic capacity

within communities

- Lhendup, P. 2012

Less knowledge on

integrating climate

change adaptation

into Planning

Process.




Info

rm

ati

on

Limitations on

Necessary

Information on

climate change

- Climate and Development Knowledge Network 2013

- Lebel, L., L. Li, C. Krittasudthacheewa, et al. 2012





49

Table 2: Comparison of Limitations in Sri Lankan Context with International Context

Poli

cy, L

egal

an

d I

nst

itu

tion

al

Fram

ew

ork

Institutional Limitations

1 Lack of institutional cohesion among the sector-specific institutions

2 Lack of efficiency and weak performance assessments in the government sector

Competing Priorities

1 Climate change adaptation considered with less importance with other priorities like poverty

reduction and other development objectives*

Governmental Policies and Strategies

1

Not integrated/mainstreamed Climate change in local, regional and national level physical

/economic planning process.

2 Climate change is regarded as an environmental issue rather than a development issue.

3 Sector-based approach to address climate change ignoring spatial dimensions

4 Absence of strong implementation mechanism/action plans for National Climate Change

policy.

Ca

pa

cit

y

Leadership

1 Lack of political will and commitment due to the long-term benefit nature of climate change

responses

Financial Capacity

1 Inadequate funds for responsible institutions especially local level agencies and local

authorities*

2 Lack of ability and restricted-provisions on developing proposals for grants

3 No/lacks building up trust with NGOs and external partners

Socio Economic Capacity

1 Difficult to grab the attention on climate change due to its high uncertainty.

2 Lack of experience and difficulties in visualizing risk of future scenarios

3 Not having access for information due to language barriers

Knowledge

1 Inadequate knowledge, technical knowhow, skills and capacity of officers/decision makers on

integrating climate change to spatial planning

2 Lack of applicability of planning tools and techniques to integrate climate change adaptation

into urban planning.

3 Absence of mechanisms to manage local knowledge (traditional , experiential ) and integrate

into decision making process

Info

rm

ati

on

1 No integrated open access data infrastructure facility for climate change

2 Absence of data sharing mechanism among institutions*

3 No proper/commonly understandable format of data collection and processing *

4 Poor climate change prediction models for Sri Lanka with lack of accuracy, reliability and

difficulties in downscaling regional climate change models

5 High cost and lengthy process of obtaining data and information

6 Lack of data on environmental degradation, vulnerability

* Limitations found in both Sri Lankan and International Context


50

Figure 1: network diagram of evaluated challenges


51

Acknowledgements

This research explicitly acknowledges the financial assistance provided by University Research Grant

Commission under the research titled ‘A Planning approach to integrate climate change adaptation into City

Development Plans of coastal urban areas, Sri Lanka’.

References Adams, P., Castro, A.J., 2013.Inside stories on climate compatible development. [online] Available at:

<http://r4d.dfid.gov.uk/PDF/Outputs/CDKN/Cartagena-inside-story-final.pdf> [Acessed 30 April 2014]

Chinvanno, S., Kerdsuk, V., 2013, Mainstreaming Climate Change into Community Development Strategies

and Plans: A Case Study in Thailand.[online]Adaptation Knowledge Platform. Stockholm Environment

Institute,Bangkok. Available at:

<http://www.asiapacificadapt.net/sites/default/files/resource/attach/Thailand_Web.pdf> [Accessed on 28 April

2014]

Climate Change Secretariat Sri Lanka, National Climate Change Policy of Sri Lanka. [pdf]

Available at: <http://www.climatechange.lk/Documents/Climate_Change_Policy/Climate_

Change_Policy_English.pdf>[Accessed 12 April 2014].

Climate Change Secretariat Sri Lanka, 2010. Climate Change Adaptation Strategy for Sri Lanka 2011 to 2016.

[pdf] Available at:<http://www.climatechange.lk/adaptation/Files/Strategy_BookletFinal_for_Print_Low_res(1).pdf> [Accessed

12 April 2014]

Lebel, L., L. Li, C. Krittasudthacheewa, et al., 2012.Mainstreaming climate change adaptation into development

planning. [online] Adaptation Knowledge Platform and Stockholm Environment

Institute.Availableat:<http://www.climateadapt.asia/upload/publications

/files/4f66f3868a813Mainstreaming_climate_change-v6_for_Web.pdf> [Accessed 30 April 2014]

Lhendup, P. 2012, Integration of Climate Adaptation into Development and Conservation Planning in Bhutan:

Issues and Recommendations [online]AdaptationKnowledgePlatform, , Stockholm Environment Institute,

Bangkok.Available at:

<http://www.climateadapt.asia/upload/publications/files/502de75a025e3Bhutan_Report_web_version.pdf>

[Accessed 27 April 2014]

Measham, T.G.,Preston, B.L., Smith, T.F., Brooke, C.,Gorddard, R., Withycombe, G., Morrison, C.,2011.

Adapting to climate change through local municipal planning: barriers and challenges [online] Available at:

<http://download.springer.com/static/pdf/118/art%253A10.1007%252Fs11027-

01193012.pdf?auth66=1403083147_722d8998caf463750091f81025540dbe&ext=.pdf> [Accessed 02 May

2014]

http://r4d.dfid.gov.uk/PDF/Outputs/CDKN/Cartagena-inside-story-final.pdf

http://www.asia/

http://www.climateadapt.asia/upload%20/publications/files/502de75a025e3Bhutan_Report_web_version.pdf


52

IMPACT OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON WETLAND ECOSYSTEM OF KNP BIRD

SANCTUARY

A.S. Jethoo1, Bartik Pandel2 1Associate Professor

Department of Civil Engineering

Malaviya National Institute of Technology, Jaipur, India 2Undergraduate student

Department of Civil Engineering

Birla Institute of Technology and Science, Pilani, Pilani Campus, India

Abstract

Wetlands give imperative ecosystem benefits that may include controlling flood and erosion, retention of storm

water, pollutants and sediments, store surface water and revive groundwater. The changes in climate are likely

to influence wetlands, in their spatial degree as well as distribution and function. The Keoladeo National Park

(KNP), located on the western edge of the Gangetic plains, at the juncture of rivers Gambhir and

Bangangaknown as the Bharatpur Bird Sanctuary is spread in excess of 29 sq km. The park is reliant on new

input of water during each monsoon. Demand of water has expanded and droughts have become more

consistent, leading to serious water deficiencies. This site is additionally viewed as an eco-fragile region in light of the fact that water, the life supporting system for KNP is being completely controlled by humans. Today KNP

is facing a tremendous deficiency of water, if the water table keeps on falling and the number of migratory and

local birds here keep falling, it would have no choice but to withdraw its World Heritage status. The KNP

requires about 15.6 million cubic meter water for support of wetland ecosystem. Lately, just 8.5 million cubic

meter of water stream is possible because of poor downpour, which has brought about the drying of the forest

and wetland flora. This paper highlights the effect of environmental change on wetland biological system in

connection to the precipitation patterns, climatic values and amount of water supplied to the park.

Keywords: Sanctuary, Climate change, Rainfall, Wetlands

Introduction

Wetlands are one of the crucial natural resources and areas lying along the banks of rivers and lakes and the

coastal regions that are either temporarily or permanently covered by water. They are life-supporting systems

providing fish, forest products, water, flood control, erosion buffering, plant gene pool, recreation, and tourism

of wildlife areas because of which they are regularly portrayed as "kidneys of the landscape" [4]. Changes in

precipitation and temperature have severe consequences for the quality and quantity of wetlands. Since these

environments have proven to be vital on both a local and global scale, it is necessary to look at climate change

and predict the way in which wetlands will respond. Wetlands in India occupy 58.2 million ha, including areas

under wet paddy cultivation [1]. The majority of the inland wetlands are directly or indirectly reliant on the

major rivers like Ganga, Bhramaputra, Narmada, Godavari, Krishna, Kaveri and Tapti. They occur in the hot

arid regions of Gujarat and Rajasthan, the deltaic regions of the east and west coasts, highlands of central India, wet humid zones of south peninsular India and the Andaman and Nicobar and Lakshwadeep Islands.

Wetlands in India, as elsewhere are progressively confronting several anthropogenic pressures. Consequently,

rapidly expanding human population, extensive scale changes in land use/land covers, burgeoning development

projects and improper use of watersheds have all brought about a significant decline of wetland resources of the

nation. These have led to hydrological perturbations, pollution and there consequences. Unsustainable levels of

grazing and fishing activities have additionally brought about debasement of wetlands. Wetlands are not

delineated under any particular administrative jurisdiction. The primary responsibility regarding the

administration of these environments is in the hands of the Ministry of Environment and Forests. Although

some wetlands are protected after the formulation of the Wildlife Protection Act, the others are in grave danger

of extinction. Effective coordination between the different ministries, energy, industry, fisheries, revenue,

agriculture, transport and water resources, is essential for the protection of these ecosystems. The objectives of

this technical review paper are to evaluate the impacts of climate change on Keoladeo National Park, Bharatpur. This paper is focused around the secondary data accessible from different state and central divisions, review of

published papers and books on the subject.

Study Area: The Keoladeo National Park


53

KNP originally constructed by the former Maharaja of Bharatpur was designated as a bird sanctuary on 13

March 1956 and a national park on 10th March 1982, it was incorporated in the World Heritage List in 1985. It

occupies an area of 29 sq km out of which 11.6 sq.km is aquatic area. It is the smallest wetland supporting such

an enormous flora and fauna of its kind not only in India, but in the entire globe. KNP’s fauna consists of over

375 species of birds including Siberian cranes which visited the Park in the early days, out of which 111 were

migratory species and 264 were resident species [7]. It has flat patchwork marshes in the Gangetic plain, artificially created in 1850. Normally, water is fed into the marshes twice a year from inundations of the

Gambhir and Banganga rivers, which are impounded on arable land by means of an artificial dam called Ajan

Bund, to the south of the park.

Climate of Keoladeo National Park is hot summers and freezing winter cold. The mean maximum temperatures

range from 20.9°C in January to 47.8°C in May, while the mean temperature vary from 6.8°C in December to

26.5°C in June. The mean relative humidity varies from 62% in March to 83% in December. The mean annual

precipitation is 664mm, with rain falling on an average of 36 days per year, mainly during the monsoon in July

and August. But between 2004 and 2007, there was a long period of drought, broken only in 2005 and 2008.

Temporal Changes in KNP The assessment of change detection over the span of 21 years, has given a clear indication of how things have

been changing at KNP, particularly the region submerged in water in the park. It has been found through various

study that the dense forest has diminished from 3.2% in 1989 to 2% in 2011, the agricultural land has decreased from 30% in 1989 to 20% in 2011 and fallow land decreased from 29% in 1989 to 25% in 2011. However,

increase has been observed in scrub land from 20% in 1989 to 22% in 2011, area under water from 2% in 1989

to 3% 2011, marshy area from 1.7% in 1989 to 4% in 2011 and developed region has expanded from 7% in

1989 to 17% in 2011 [3]. Figure 1 shows vegetation and land cover map of KNP in October, 2005.

Figure1. Vegetation and land cover map of Keoladeo National Park (October, 2005)

Water Requirement and Availability

Normally, water from the Gambhiri river is fed from the Ajan bund into the marshes twice a year from the

floodwaters, first in mid-July not long after the onset of the monsoon, and secondly in late September or

October when the Bund was drained ready for cultivation in winter. The area is overflowed to a depth of 1-2m throughout the monsoon between July and September, after which the water level drops. From February


54

onwards the land begins to dry out until by June only a little water remains. For a great part of the year the

wetland covered with water makes only one third of the Park.

As indicated by a study 15.6 million cubic meter of water is needed for the maintenance of the wetland

ecosystem in KNP. Availability of less than 9.90 million cubic meter of water will not be sufficient for

maintaining the complex wetland ecosystem moreover, it might result in the woodland ecosystem creeping into

the wetland area.The water problem in the Park began after the drought in 2000, 2001, 2002 and 2004 created water shortage in the Park. The construction of the Panchana dam across the river Gambhir during the years

2003-04 has aggravated the water issue in the park. As the capacity of the Panchana dam, first outlined in the

year 1979, for storing 17.27 million cubic meter of water was raised to store 59.5 million cubic meter of water.

This has led to a situation, where very little water flows downstream of the dam.In 2004, the state government,

under political pressure to retain the water for farmers in the valley downstream, reduced the annual water flow

from the dam from 15 million cubic metre to 0.51 million cubic metre. Added to this are failure of monsoon,

breach in the canal and river system, leakage of water through the damaged sluice gates, transmission losses like

seepage, evaporation and percolation and illegal lifting of water from the channels by farmers.

Effect of Water Scarcity and Other Factors on the Wetlands Ecosystem

It is seen that ecology in KNP has been severely influenced by hydrological alterations mostly through

development of up streams Panchana Dam and gigantic unlawful construction of anicuts and infringement of

catchments region on Rivers Banganga and Gambhiri. It is considered that after 1990 due to less precipitation in this area, the Park has seen many intermittent dry spell periods. Presently the primary threats to the Park are the

lack of water supply which was begun after 1990’s and much aggravated by recent droughts; and invasion by

exotic species. Siberian crane, which formerly was found throughout the entire Indo-Gangetic plains of India, is

reported to be no longer found there. Its absence has been attributed to hunting by nomadic tribes along the

species' 7700 km migration course from Siberia to Bharatpur but also to the lack of suitable habitat. The habitat

quality has degraded significantly due to water scarcity in various forms over the years.

The other major management issue being faced in the Park is the invasive species growth. Prosopis juliflora, an

unpleasant weed has invaded the entire park and this has adversely affected the habitat of woodland, grassland

and lakes. There are no local people living within the Park, but the city of Bharatpur is close by and the Park is

closely surrounded by fifteen villages. These people initially relied on the area for grazing cattle and buffalo,

fodder, fuel wood, timber, thatch and rope materials and medicinal plants. Further, the presence of feral, i.e. undomesticated cattle also poses a management problem to the park. Feral cattle generate biotic pressure over

the feeding ground of herbivores and these also become a cause of spreading/transmission of certain cattle

diseases to the animals.

Furthermore, the ecosystem of KNP is prone to water, air and noise pollution. The water that comes into

Keoladeo National Park has to flow through many cultivated fields spread over hundreds of square kilometres.

In this process the chemicals left over in the fields because of the excessive use of chemical fertilisers and

pesticides get dissolved in this water which has a direct impact on water chemistry of the park, which in turn

affects the aquatic vegetation and the dependent fauna. There are a number of brick kilns near the park. The

smoke coming out of the chimneys of these kilns leads to pollution of the atmosphere of the park. The number

of automobiles has increased many folds in the recent years. Proportionately the number of vehicles coming to

the park has also increased. If these vehicles were allowed to move about freely in the park it would result in

avoidable disturbance and noise pollution.

Discussion Climate change will also have an impact on the biodiversity of all ecosystems. Wetlands are a habitat to

numerous threatened and endangered species. Many fish species might also be unable to travel to other systems

if the waterways connecting wetlands are lost because of warming and/or a decrease in precipitation. Flyways

for migratory birds will also be altered. Over 80% of migratory birds use wetlands as a stopping ground in their

travels [5]. As these wetlands dry due to an increase in temperature or are lost through inundation, the birds will

lose halting grounds. Biodiversity can further be decreased due to an influx of exotic species. The most broadly

known obtrusive wetland plant in the Northeast is Phragmites, which has out-contended numerous other wetland

plants. Population of the threatened Sarus Crane has declined radically with 8 pairs in 2003, 7 pairs in 2004 and

8 pairs in 2005 with only 2 nests and one chick contrasted with 14 nests in 1983 and 8 in 1992 because of

mortality due to pesticides, continuous droughts and shrinkage in water spread area in Keoladeo National Park [2]. The critically endangered Siberian Crane were just five in 1993, two in 2002 and nil thereafter.

Conclusion

Increase in temperature and recurrent drought in the park reduced water inflow due to less precipitation as well

as hydrological alteration by construction of Panchana Dam on upstream side of park. The present situation has

shown that the Keoladeo National Park is on the verge of degradation stage with lack of water availability in the

Park and invasion of exotic species as Prosopis juliflora and other growth of aquatic vegetation. Regardless of

the benefits, wetlands are the first target of human interference and are among the most undermined of all


55

natural resources. Degradation of KNP wetlands continues due to the fact that the ‘full value’ of ecosystem

functions is often ignored in policy-making, plans and corporate evaluations of development projects.

References

1. Directory of Indian Wetlands, 1993

2. Ewans, Martin, Bharatpur: Bird Paradise. London: H.F. & G. Witherby Ltd.,1989

3. Manisha Yadav, J.K. Garg, G. Areendran and K. Raj, " Assessment and Monitoring of Temporal Changes in Keoladeo National Park (A WetlandEcosystem) and its Catchment Area: A Remote

Sensing and GIS Study" International Journal of Remote Sensing and GIS, Volume 3, Issue 1, pp 8-

20, 2014.

4. Mitsch, William J., Gosselink, James G., "Wetlands", Reinhold, NY, 1986.

5. Mitsch, William J., Gosselink, James G., "Wetlands, 4th Edition", 2007

6. Review of state of environment in Keoladeo National Park, Bharatpur, Rajasthan and its

catchment area: a historical analysis, Sponsored by Socio-Economic Research Division, Planning

Commission, Government of India and Conducted by Environmental Impact Assessment Division

Sálim Ali Centre for Ornithology and Natural History Coimbatore, Tamil Nadu, 2012.

7. Vijayan, V.S., on conserving the bird fauna of Indian Wetlands. Proc.Indian Acad. Sci. (Suppl): 91-

101, 1986


56

THE CURRENT SCENARIO OF BANGLADESH DUE TO THE IMPACT OF

CLIMATE CHANGE: STATISTICS AND PREDICTIONS Momtahana Binte Habib

1; Tarique Hasan

2

1 Water Resources Engineering, Bangladesh University of Engineering and Technology, Bangladesh 2 Water Resources Engineering, Bangladesh University of Engineering and Technology, Bangladesh

Abstract

All over the world climate change has emerged as a poisonous venom, the sting of which has grasped Bangladesh and managed to question its future existence mostly due to its geographical position. The influence

on the ecosystem, socio-economy, health, geography, demography, food security, rainfall, seasonal temperature

and weather, fresh water supply, sea water level, salinity intrusion, frequent cyclones and floods is alarming.

Bangladesh has six seasons but due to climate change the temperature distribution and weather during each

season has been vastly affected, resulting in merging of some seasons hence extinction of the unique qualities of

rest of them. Climate change has also increased the sea level of Bangladesh which has caused a rise in salinity

intrusion. Due to seepage of this saline water there has been contamination of unconfined fresh water aquifers

which has decreased the availability of ground water resulting in water scarcity. There has been increased

amount of health hazards due to the destruction of ozone layers and water borne diseases. This paper would

highlight the impact of climate change on Bangladesh using these data collected, analysis and theoretical

predictions using some of these parameters to portray the actual situation of the country as a whole.

Keywords: Climate, Bangladesh, Impact

Introduction

Climate change is a change of climate which is attributed directly or indirectly to human activity that alters the

composition of the global atmosphere and which is in addition to natural climate variability observed over

comparable time periods. Climate change has caused changing temperature values resulting in diversified and

unpredictable rainfall patterns hence promoted sea level rise and salinity intrusion. Thus the electrical

conductivity of soil has been altered reducing crop yields and endangering food security. A higher frequency of

storms and cyclones have also hampered health vastly by increasing the transmission and appearance of many

diseases notably malaria and dengue and have questioned proper health of individuals. We have considered each

point and carried out a detailed analysis to portray the current scenario of the impact of climate change in

Bangladesh.

Temperature As temperature is one of the common parameter for climate change. Due to climate change temperature is

increasing thorough out the world. Since the mid 19th century, the average temperature at the Earth’s surface has

increased by approximately 0.8°C. Also SCENGEN estimates a global mean temperature increase of 0.8 °C by

2030, 1.2 °C by2050 and 2 °C by 2100.

Bangladesh is a country which is neither too cold nor too hot. But because of climate change the average

temperature of this country is also increasing making our summer hotter and winter warmer. As people of this

country are not used to very hot climate, it‘s also causing diseases because of heat and insects. The increasing

temperature is resulting other bad impacts such as decreased crop production, sea level rise, increased flooding,

riverbank erosion and possibly cyclones. The data of average yearly temperature of Dhaka of past 30 years are

given to show the increasing temperature due to climate change.

Year Average

Temperature

Year Average

Temperature

Year Average

Temperature

Year Average

Temperature

1976 29 1984 29.8 1991 29.1 1998 30

1977 28.5 1985 29.6 1992 29.6 1999 31.1

1978 29.5 1986 29.7 1993 29.2 2000 29.4

1980 29.4 1987 29.9 1994 30.1 2001 30.4

1981 29.4 1988 29.9 1995 30.1 2002 30.2

1982 29.4 1989 29.6 1996 30.2 2003 30.3

1983 29.3 1990 29.5 1997 30.1

We can see that, in past 30 years the average temperature has increased 1.3°C in Dhaka which shows

the impact of climate change in Bangladesh.

Rainfall

As climate is changing, one of the best indicators of it is annual rainfall of a country. Also the fact that the

pattern of rainfall is changing which is causing more damage like excess rain in winter and less rain in monsoon

season. From CSIRO 2006 report, there are few areas within the Asia/Pacific region where large changes can be

projected with confidence, particularly by 2030. However, for individual seasons, there are strong signals of

large changes in rainfall, particularly in winter.


57

Bangladesh is a country of six seasons but its climate is influenced primarily by rainfall. According to the

amount of rainfall, there are four prominent seasons called winter (December - February),pre-monsoon(March-

May),monsoon(June-early October),Post-monsoon(late October-November).Variable like rainfall, exhibit large

change from one place to another so annual rainfall data of past 40 years(1960-2000)of Dhaka, Faridpur and

Mymensingh are given to show the change in rainfall. Also seasonal rainfall of Dhaka for these years is also

given which shows the changes over the time.

Year Dhaka Faridpur Mymensingh

Total Rainf

all

Maximum

Rainf

all

Total Rainfal

l

Maximum

Rainf

all

Total Rainfal

l

Maximum

Rainf

all

1960 1554 488.9 --- ---- ---- ----

1965 2099 441.8 1528 328.1 2653 670.6

1970 1825 417.6 2158 449.8 2275 585.6

1975 2130 625.4 1897 570.8 2405 799.9

1980 2215 411 1902 343.9 2331 629.7

1985 2064 398 1544 278.1 2070 504.7

1990 2138 566.9 2128 400.4 3001 679.2

1995 1732 361 2040 508.5 2836 824.5

2000 2041 608 1827 374.5 2391 477

2003 1672 473 ---- --- 2627 714.8

Salinity Intrusion

Bearing in mind the geographical position of Bangladesh, salinity intrusion has aroused as an alarming

coordinator in facilitating food insecurities by hampering soil properties, decreasing biodiversity, endangering

mangrove ecosystem in Sundarbans and polluting safe water supply. Climate change, sea level rise, decrease of

upstream flow due to Farrakka Barrage, expansion of shrimp farms has played a very effective role in this regard.

A map by CEGIS, Bangladesh showing salinity ingress in different

parts due to varying sea level rise is shown. Conversely, saline water

creates problems in utilization of water for potable supply, agricultural

irrigation and industrial extraction.

The table shows the percentage yield decreases with corresponding

salinity

measured

as Electrical

conducti

vity

(mmhos/

cm). Water conductivity values of 750 damages human health while a value above 2000 will disrupt crop yields.

Maps (below) showing salinity intensity for the Southern region of Bangladesh were obtained for 4years with

interval of 2years. Upon observation it reveals that in year 2001 most regions had salinity intensity values within

0 to 2000 and in some places it is within 2000 to 4000. In 2003, a similar approach revealed the proportion has

changed and regions near Khulna, Bagerhat have salinity intensity above 12000 and in part as high as 21000 to

25000.

Year Win

ter

Pre-

monso

on

Mons

oon

Post-

mons

oon

Jan

uar

y

April Septe

mber

Octob

er

1960 0 70.5 488.9 543.9

1965 0 103.9 329.5 275.3

1970 15.1 176.1 413.5 417.6

1975 1.3 17 625.4 316.6

1980 0 274 394 299

1985 8 231 262 79

1990 0 154 567 181

1995 0 88 354 91

2000 0 46 197 278

Yield

Decrease

EC on Rice

(mmhos/cm)

EC on Wheat

(mmhos/cm)

0 % 2000 4000

10 % 2600 4900

20 % 3400 6400

50 % 4800 8700


58

The study in 2005 confirms improvements and the decrease of salinity intensity in regions from 21000-25000 to

15000-18000 or from 4000-8000 to 0-2000 level. In 2007 the map shows an alarming situation where some

regions have salinity intensity values as high as 25000-to-35000 near Khulna. Such scenario has resulted from

impact of cyclone Sidr which vastly affected coastal zones.

Storm and Cyclone

To understand the impact of climate change, one important indicator is the amount and frequency of storm and cyclone. Along with others, the coastal region of Bangladesh is prone to multi-hazard threats such as cyclones,

storm surges etc. Bangladesh has been identified as one of the 27 countries, which are the most vulnerable to the

impacts of climate change, induced cyclonic surge in the near future and the possible adaptations against it.

Since the continental shelf is long and shallow and the coast has a funnel shape, the surge is concentrated and

amplified. Also the coastal zone is low-lying with 62% of the land have an elevation of up to 3 meters and 86%

up to 5 meters from the mean sea level and the coastal area is densely populated ,as a result, UNDP has

identified Bangladesh to be the most vulnerable country in the world to tropical cyclones.

Rank Country Deaths /100000

people exposed to

the cyclone

1 Bangladesh 32.1

2 India 20.2

3 Philippines 8.3

4 Honduras 7.3

5 Vietnam 5.5

Type Bangladesh

All types 154

Depressions 68

CS 43

SCS 43

CS+SCS 86

% of global total

CS+SCS

0.93


59

Also types of cyclone which hit the coast of Bangladesh are shown along with number

and path of cyclone. The last most catastrophic cyclones that hit the coast of this

country was named Sidr and Aila which hit the coast in 2007 and 2009 respectively.

And a comparison is shown below.

Food Security

The soil properties of Bangladesh facilitate the growth of agriculture and promote a

very large portion of the demography’s financial needs by providing them a source of

income. However climate change has caused various adverse effects on the crop yields

and few positive impacts on agriculture. The food security of Bangladesh has been

greatly endangered. In

the extreme

Northwest part of Bangladesh, the

region has less

rainfall from

November to May

when the dry North-

west winds

(November-February) and the less moist trends (March-May) dominate the circulation. A longer warm growing

season would benefit tropical and subtropical crops such as rice, maize, millets (e.g. kaon), sugarcane and

bananas provided that soil is sufficiently moist to support the growth of these species. Conversely a shorter

winter period will result hence yield of temperate crops such as wheat, potato, lentils and mustard/rapeseed will

decrease.

Different crops have varying ranges of optimum temperature for growth. A higher temperature of growing seasons due to impact of global warming would increase the yield of kharif crops (e.g. aush and aman paddy,

jute). Global warming has also reduced yield of certain crops. Dry-land rabi crops (eg. wheat) would have

reduced yield due to higher Winter temperatures whereas yields of boro paddy would reduce due to higher

maximum temperatures in the pre-monsoon season. An increase of rainfall frequency or intensity can result in

higher soil moisture and irrigation supplies provided it does not risk flood hazards. Such benefits could be

partially reduced by decreased light intensity resulting from increased cloud cover associated with higher mean

temperatures. A summarized impact on crops due to climate change is as follows:

Crops Minimum

Temperature

(°C)

Maximum

Temperature

(°C)

Sowing –

Flowering Periods

Impact due to Climate Change

Aush 15 40 March - July Likely to be small

Aman 20 Not limiting June-December Grain yield reduced due to falling

temperatures during flowering seasons.

Boro 15 40 November-April Maximum temperatures above 40

during flowering seasons reduces

yield.

Rabi

season

crops

15 25 Mid October-May Greatest impact. Process of

photosynthesis hampered.

Health

The impact of climate change on public health has vastly outnumbered such consequences on other sectors.

Public health has deteriorated alarmingly. Water-borne diseases such as diarrhea, dysentery and vector-borne

diseases such as malaria, dengue are climate sensitive. There are emerging virus infections due to climate

change such as Nipah virus infection and Kala-azar (visceral leishmaniasis). Temperature and precipitation are

key determinants of distribution of many disease carrying vectors and climate change has propagated them. A

summarized table is given below:

Cyclones Sidr Aila

Year 2007 2009

Return Period 10 years 1.2 years

Average wind speed 223km/h 95km/h

Casualties 4234 190

Injuries 55282 7103

Livelihood affected of 8.3 million people 3.9million people

Estimated damage of assets US$ 1.67 billion US$ 270 million


60

Disea

se

Incide

nces

Dura

tion

Avera

ge

incide

nces

per

year

Diarr

hea

48,301

,636

1988-

2005

28412

73

Skin Disea

ses

23,607,833

1988-1996

2623092

Mala

ria

1,018,

671

1974-

2004

33956

Ment

al

disor

ders

201,88

1

1988-

1996

22431

Deng

ue

19830 1999-

2005

3305

Sources: SEARO-WHO, 2006; DG Health, 1996,1997;MoEF,2005;BBS, 2005

Malaria and Diarrhea has increased in large magnitudes. Bar charts showing the

gradual increase in frequency of malaria and diarrhea are given below:

Year

Malaria

Incidences

1974-1983 162898

1984-1993 301651

1994-2003 507485

Conclusion

Bearing in mind the United Nations Millennium Development Goals, the prospects of achieving a proper

development in the health sector and ensuring food security has been adversely affected by the impact of climate

change in Bangladesh. The Kyoto Protocol left admirable provisions for reduction of carbon emission. Such

measures would minimize global warming the impact of which has caused rising sea levels and increased

frequency of cyclones and storms in countries like Bangladesh which has insignificant participation in causing

such hazards but are being subjected to innumerable side-effects. The cyclone Sidr in 2007 has caused around

4234 deaths which have been reduced admirably to 190 by proper relocation and rehabilitation before cyclone Aila in 2009. The active role of government is admirable in this regard. Much importance needs to be given to

minimize salinity intrusion due to decrease of water level in dry season from manipulation of water supply using

Farakka Barrage. There should be proper diplomatic measures and provision for an appropriate action plan to

prevent such problems. Many problems due to

climate change have been addressed and there

remain numerous ones that require proper

identification and appropriate measures in

order to minimize the impact of climate

change in Bangladesh.

Reference: Thesis:

1. Md.Mostafizur Rahman. Climate changes and trend over north-west region of

Bangladesh.May-2007

2. Fatima-tuz-zohora.Trends of Rainfall in

Dhaka division and possible global warming

effect.January-2008

3. Ishtiaq Ahmed. Surface water salinity intrusion in the south-west part of Bangladesh. February-2013

4. Nabila Imam. Application of GIS in storm surge risk assessment: A case study for south-west coastal region

of Bangladesh.2012.

Year

Diarrhea

Incidences

1995 650000

1996 1000000

1997 1001000

1998 2001000

1999 1501000

2000 1502000

2001 1800000

2002 2650000

2003 2350000

2004 2300000


61

LEARNING FROM THE EXPERIENCES IN NEPAL: MAINSTREAMING

CLIMATE CHANGE ADAPTATION IN DEVELOPMENT B. R. Regmi1, C. Star1 and S. Schech2

1 School of Social and Policy Studies, Flinders University, Adelaide, 5046, Australia 2 School of International Development, University, Adelaide, 5046, Australia

Abstract

Climate change adaptation has emerged as an approach to strengthen a local response to climate change impacts

in Least Developed Countries like Nepal. The major issue now in adaptation is how to mainstream in development and address issues of vulnerable communities. This research looks into national-level experiences

of how climate change adaptation is mainstreamed in Nepal to generate early lessons. A case study approach

was used to carry out an in-depth analysis of two climate change mainstreaming cases in Nepal. The findings

show the experience has been encouraging, showing potential to create strong linkages between climate change

adaptation and development. However, due to a lack of supportive governance structure, though, these

initiatives may not be sustainable in future. There is a need for further work on designing policy and governance

mechanisms that is nationally owned and value multi-stakeholder engagement.

Introduction and Background There is growing interest among research community to explore the linkages between climate change and

sustainable development (Munasinghe and Swart, 2005). In 1992, the United Nations Conference on

Environment and Development produced the Rio Declaration and Agenda 21, both of which made explicit

connections between environment and development. In 2002, a report released by 10 leading development

funding agencies – Poverty and Climate Change: reducing the vulnerability of the poor through adaptation –

stated that climate change was a threat to development efforts and poverty reduction, including the achievement

of the Millennium Development Goals, and that pro‐poor development was key to successful adaptation

(Schipper, 2004).

Mainstreaming climate change in development is a popular agenda put forward by development community

recently. The notion that climate change policy should not operate in isolation and need to complement other

development goals, acted as foundation of integration and mainstreaming agenda (Klein, Eriksen et al. 2007;

Gupta and van der Grijp 2010). The complementarities between the linkages of climate change and development

can yield synergistic efficiencies and benefits that advance the goal of both climate and development (Leary et

al, 2008, 16). The United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) also supported the

mainstreaming agenda by making major decisions to support the developing and Least Developed Countries

(LDCs) in identifying adaptatoin priorities through National Adaptation Programme of Action (NAPA) and

National Adaptation Plan (NAP).

However, experiences suggest that mainstreaming climate change adaptation in development is challenging. Although mainstreaming looks inspiring, it is theoretically vague and practically tricky and difficult to promote

and achieve. There is also inadequate understanding of exactly what mainstreaming means and how to

incorporate climate change into the development policy and strategies. Most of the experiences of

mainstreaming were within policy level and less on implementation. There is insufficient knowledge about

suitable approaches to mainstreaming particularly how to put in practice (Ayers and Dodman 2010; Gupta and

van der Grijp 2010).

The government of Nepal is moving ahead in policy response to climate change adaptation. The government has

also endorsed National Adaptation Programme of Action (NAPA) in 2010 to implement urgent and immediate

adaptation priorities in the climate sensitive and vulnerable areas and sector of Nepal. In addition, the

government of Nepal prepared the national framework on Local Adaptation Plan of Action (LAPA) in 2011 that

aims to mainstream climate change adaptation in development plans and policies of Nepal. Despite policy

advancement, there is an uncertainty at the national level on how to mainstream and whether or not mainstreaming is the right approach to address the need of vulnerable households.

This article seeks to highlight some of the issues emerging from the early development of mainstreaming

initiatives in Nepal. The main research question is: what are the early lessons of mainstreaming climate change

in development in Nepal and what implications or lessons it can have in terms of addressing the need of the

most vulnerable? The information and knowledge regarding the process adopted in Nepal will be of relevance to

design effective mainstreaming strategy at country level and to other LDCs.

Materials and Methodology This research is carried out in Nepal. Nepal is selected as case study because it is considered to be one of the

countries that are most at risk to climate change effects and mainstreaming approach is relevant for Nepal. This

article seeks to highlight some of the issues around early development and innovations around mainstreaming

climate change adaptation in development planning in Nepal. There is rich information and knowledge on


62

process adopted in Nepal in terms of adaptation planning which will be of relevant to other countries. The

information and analysis carried out in this article is based on the information available from NAPA project, UK

Aid supported LAPA piloting.

The research uses the literature review and informal consultation as methodological process of accessing

information from various sources including key informants. A total of 45 key informants and 12 community

groups were selected for the study. These key informants represent policy makers and practitioners engaged and experienced in climate change adaptation planning in Nepal. Likewise, the 12 community groups include the

groups in LFP implemented districts mostly in Baglung, Nawalparasi and Pyuthan. The information is also

enriched through citing initial impact studies carried out in reference to NAPA, and local adaptation planning in

Nepal. The information obtained from the process is analyzed and presented as the case studies.

Result and Findings

Case study one: Attempt to promote inclusive and integrated National Adaptation Programme of Action

National Adaptation Programmes of Action aim to build the adaptive capacity of the most vulnerable communities in the most vulnerable countries through the identification and development of specific measures

aiming at reducing vulnerabilities to climate change of the different groups and sectors. They provide a process

by which to formulate a national climate change adaptation agenda. Nepal considers the NAPA as a strategic

means to mainstream climate change adaptation in development programmes. The Government of Nepal took

the leadership in facilitating an inclusive and participatory process in the preparation of its NAPA. This section

of the paper analyses the NAPA process and outcome to look for its contribution in mainstreaming climate

change in development.

The Ministry of Environment, the Government of Nepal's focal agency for climate change issues, coordinated with United Nations Development Programme Nepal in the preparation of the NAPA. The Ministry of

Environment facilitated the establishment of thematic working groups to carry out the tasks required in the

development of the NAPA. The thematic groups were sectoral in nature (focused on agriculture, forestry, water,

infrastructure, health, gender and governance), and were comprised of representatives from different sectors, including local and international NGOs, business associations, and United Nations agencies. The consultation

on the document ranged from the public and grassroots level to policy makers. Overall, more than 200 national

and international agencies and 3000 people were involved in the NAPA drafting process. The perception of

interviewed respondents indicates that there was high degree of national ownership of NAPA (See table 1

below).

Table 1. Perception of respondents on overall NAPA process

Response perception No of

respons

es

(n=45)

NAPA process was highly participatory and the engagement of stakeholders was high

(both and non government sector were involved)

15

Bottom up consultation added value to the NAPA process 9

NAPA was Strategic, process oriented and inclusive process 3

The methodology and process was inclusive in the NAPA process 5

NAPA process was based on learning from other Least Developed Countries NAPA 3

NAPA process was country driven and stakeholder owned 10

Nepal’s NAPA was more specific to the agenda of mainstreaming climate change in development. The analysis

shows that the NAPA stresses the importance to build synergy with development sectors. NAPA guidelines state

that NAPAs are a means to prioritize urgent and immediate adaptation actions. The document also highlights the

importance of mainstreaming.NAPA envisions that, ‘mainstreaming climate change into national development

agenda will contribute to poverty reduction, livelihood diversification and building community resilience’ (MoE

2010, p 7). The focus of climate change adaptation and development interfaces can be evident in the NAPA document.

The document includes a section entitled ‘National development planning as a framework for climate

adaptation’ (MoE 2010, p.3). This section discusses on the Nepal’s development planning process and its

responses on climate change issues. The section also shows the linkages between NAPA framework and

national development goals. The table within NAPA document, section 1.2 page 4, further discusses the

specific interface between national development goals and the six thematic areas identified under the NAPA

project (MoE 2010, p.4).

http://www.napanepal.gov.np/

http://www.undp.org.np/


63

NAPA is also geared towards promoting the mainstreaming agenda and integrating adaptation into the overall national development process was a major consideration from the very outset. Hence, the National Planning

Commission was engaged in all steps of the NAPA process. As a result, the Government of Nepal's Three Year

Plan (2010-2013) - the document defining the nation's medium-term national development priorities - has made

a clear reference to the NAPA and to the imperative of ensuring that new development projects and programmes

are screened from the point of view of climate change vulnerability and risk reduction.

As far as the future is concerned, there are issues regarding the continuity of NAPA process and keeping the

thematic working group and wider stakeholder structures intact and engaged. Since NAPA formulation in 2010

till 2014, only two out of 7 priority adaptation projects were implemented. This raises serious implications of

the implementation of remaining 5 of the national priorities. The government and Nepali stakeholders have not come up with any plans to continue the initiative and mainstreaming the adaptation priorities identified by

NAPA. It would be valuable for development agencies and government to promote the mechanism and

framework established by NAPA. Building on its achievements and good practices will lead to successes in the

future in terms of ensuring multi-stakeholder participation in facilitating adaptation responses.

Case study 2. Innovations around the Local Adaptation Plan of Action and Community Based Adaptation

Planning

The United Kingdom Department for International Development supported development of the LAPA framework, which is based upon the principles of inclusiveness, responsiveness, flexibility and iteration.

HTSPE, the International Institute for Environment and Development and local NGOs were involved in LAPA

piloting. This section of the paper discusses on the significance of LAPA in mainstreaming climate change

adaptation in development. The information presented here is drawn from the NGO pilot reports and informal

consultation with individuals involved in piloting.

The LAPA framework responds to the challenges posed by climate change to development planning and achieving equitable development outcomes. The LAPA process addresses how to plan under climatic

uncertainty for the different impacts affecting local people. The intention is that use of the LAPA framework

will help local-level decision makers (households, community-based organizations and public bodies at the

village and district levels) to prepare local adaptation plans and to present these plans for inclusion in

development planning processes by Village Development Committees and District Development Committees.

The early lessons from LAPA piloting indicate that it is proving effective in overcoming barriers in adaptive governance. It has contributed to raising awareness and the capacity of communities and local institutions to

take leadership in designing adaptation responses and responding based on available resources. Community

leadership and ownership of the adaptation process is key to LAPA. The local adaptation planning process has

successfully linked community-based adaptation with the national adaptation planning process, providing a framework and mechanism for facilitating a top-down and bottom-up mix of adaptation responses.

Local adaptation planning and the framework around adaptation governance in Nepal are providing good

examples and lessons in support of the current discussion of the adaptation paradox - how to link global policy

making to local responses. It is also helping Nepal to take leadership in demonstrating local preparedness and actions towards climate change adaptation governance. Although the pilot activities are in an early phase, there

are already encouraging results; existing mechanisms are so far proving effective at mainstreaming climate

change adaptation at the local level.

Several field pilots have identified a wide variety of tools that can be effectively used to assess climate vulnerable households or communities. The participatory tools and methods proposed by various agencies and

scholars have been refined and adopted during LAPA piloting as a basis for integrated vulnerability assessment.

Social analysis system tools that emphasize collaborative enquiry and social engagement, such as problem

dynamics (assessing climate change issues), option domain (identifying adaptation options) and multi-

stakeholder brainstorming workshops, were liked by communities, not least as they provided a visual basis for

communities to understand and interpret the situation. Social analysis tools, such as those available through the

Social Analysis Systems approach, were received well by NGOs and government officials due to their

applicability and usefulness in terms of understanding power dynamics, institutional settings and differences

among risk and adaptation thresholds. These lessons suggest that integrated vulnerability assessment can be an

effective entry point to the LAPA planning process.

http://www.npc.gov.np/

http://www.npc.gov.np/

http://www.npc.gov.np/uploads/publications/20110901113819.pdf

http://www.npc.gov.np/uploads/publications/20110901113819.pdf

http://www.htspe.com/product_details_28.htm

http://www.iied.org/climate-change/home

http://www.sas2.net/


64

The pilot projects identified awareness raising, local capacity building, a participatory and inclusive process of

planning and delivery and collaboration among communities, NGOs and local government bodies as important

elements in shaping local adaptation governance and the effectiveness of the adaptation response at the local

level. Similarly during the research the different categories of respondents (policy makers, practitioners and

Communities) were asked to describe their satisfaction over the local adaptation planning process. The findings

showed that majority of the policy makers, practitioners and communities engaged in the adaptation planning were very satisfied and happy that it adapted inclusive and participatory process in LAPA designing (see figure

1 below).

Figure 1. Perception of respondents on the LAPA process.

However, implementation of LAPA was limited to specific project locations and to the few household and communities living in those areas. Likewise, the activities of LAPA could not sustain beyond the piloting

project phase because the district and central level government agencies were not involved. In addition, the case

study pointed out common governance challenges to mainstream at the operation level. The lack of scientific

information and knowledge on climate change made the practitioners and decision makers reluctant to integrate

climate change in development plans and policies.

There were also other issues that hindered the sustainability of adaptation interventions. It was found that there

was a gap in capacity, technology and financial resources at the community level which made the good practices

and initiatives of LAPA unsustainable. The findings also showed a critical issue around adaptation

prioritization and investment. The majority of the investment made at local level, in the name of climate change

adaptation, was in fact based on development priorities of communities as identified by small groups of decision

makers. The early lessons of LAPA indicate that mainstreaming cannot operate in isolation because of the fact climate

change adaptation is complex and multi sectoral. The local level institutions can play a major role in effectively

implementing the policies and practices but ultimately the meso level and national and international systems

have to take collectively take ownership and responsibility to provide additional resources and technology to

sustain mainstreaming initiatives.

Discussion

Evidence discussed in this paper suggests that policy and programmes will not necessarily translate into

effective adaptation action. There were also evidences in Nepal which suggest that current planning and

governance structure is not in favor of mainstreaming climate change adaptation as it is more sectoral biased and

fragmented (Regmi and Bhandari 2012; Pant and Gautam 2013). Thus, a major challenge concerns the lack of

an effective roadmap and governance architecture to meaningfully address climate change impacts, particularly

at local levels where a mismatch between national planning and local action has been noted.

The findings reveal that one of the governance challenges to mainstream climate change in development is to

address the mis-match in the approaches used in service delivery. The NAPA approach to mainstreaming

created some positive policy changes but failed to operationalize. The approach failed because the process of

design and implementation was centralized (centrally controlled), short term (time limitation) and constrained

by resources. Likewise, the findings show that the bottom up approach, for example LAPA, was successful to

mobilize local community groups and increase their awareness but failed to influence the government

institutions which resulted in a lack of support and continuity from the government.

The findings revealed that adapting both top down and bottom up approach separately cannot address the issues

of multi scale governance of climate change mainstreaming in Nepal because of the complexity of the issue. The

0

5

10

15

20

Very satisfied Satisfied Not satisfied

Policy makers Practitioners Community groups


65

findings imply that there is a need to have multi institutional mechanism that facilitates the strong linkages and

coordination between top down and bottom up and also help to negotiate competing and conflicting interests

among stakeholders in a transparent manner. The mainstreaming of climate change in development should also

be supported with harmonized and coordinated financial flow at the central and international level which

recognizes the urgency of decentralizing majority of the fund and technical support for household and

community level.

Conclusions

In conclusion, the findings and discussion of this research shows that due to the complex nature of climate

change, there is no single approach and solution to facilitate mainstreaming at the local level and national level.

The experiences of NAPA and LAPA implementation in Nepal show that mainstreaming climate change

adaptation in development has to adapt a mix model that combines different approaches and strategies and

mostly based on national level learning. This includes the combination of top down and bottom up approaches

and strategies that promote multi-stakeholder participation and local ownership.

The findings imply that a nationally owned and multi stakeholder led mainstreaming approach has potential to

overcome some of barriers identified at the international, national and local level. This type of in country and

transformative mainstreaming is also advocated recently by some of the government as main-streamlining. This

approach will build national ownership of mainstreaming in Nepal and create favourable governance structure than links communities with state and international agencies.

References

Ayers, J. and D. Dodman. Climate change adaptation and development I.Progress in Development Studies; 10:

161. 2010.

Gupta, J. and N. van der Grijp.Mainstreaming climate change in development cooperation: Theory, practice

and implications for the European Union; London: Cambridge Univ Press, 2010.

Klein, R. J. T., S. E. H. Eriksen, et al. Portfolio screening to support the mainstreaming of adaptation to climate

change into development assistance. Climatic Change; 84, 2007: 23-44.

Leary, N., J. Adejuwon, et al. Climate change and adaptation." UK, Earthscan/James & James, 2008.

Ministry of Environment (MoE). National Adaptation Programme of Action (NAPA), Government of Nepal, Kathmand, 2010.

Munasinghe, M. and R. J. Swart. Primer on climate change and sustainable development: facts, policy

analysis, and applications; UK, Cambridge Univ Press, 2005.

NCVST. Vulnerability Through the Eyes of Vulnerable: Climate Change Induced Uncertainties and Nepal’s

Development Predicaments. Kathmandu, ISET, 2009.

Pant, D. and K. Gautam . Policy Provisions and Local Response on Climate Change Adaptation in Nepal.

Regional Climate Change Adaptation Knowledge Platform for Asia; Bangkok, Stockholm

Environment Institute, Bangkok, 2013.

Regmi, B. and D. Bhandari. "Climate Change Governance and Funding Dillema in Nepal; TMC Academic

Journal , 7, 2012: 40-55.

Schipper, E. L. F.Exploring Adaptation to Climate Change: A Development Perspective PhD, University of

East Anglia, 2004.


66

AN OVERVIEW OF CLIMATE CHANGE AND ITS POTENTIAL IMPLICATIONS

IN NIGERIA

A. 1*

, H. Darda’u1 and S.A. Mashi

2

1Department of Geography, Umaru Musa Yar’adua University, Nigeria 2Department of Geography & Environmental Management, University of Abuja, Nigeria

The potential for climate change to bring about damaging and irrecoverable effects on infrastructure, food

production, and water supplies, in addition to precipitating natural resource conflicts makes it a critical

challenge that must be responded to by any economy seeking sustainable growth in the years leading up to 2020.

Nigeria’s climate is already changing. Reports of the Nigerian Meteorological Agency indicated that between

1971 and 2000 the combination of late onset and early cessation shortened the length of the rainy season in most

parts of the country. Between 1941 and 2000, annual rainfall decreased by 2-8 mm across most of the country,

but increased by 2-4 mm in a few places located within the southern part of the country. From 1941 to 2000

there was evidence of long-term temperature increase in most parts of the country. The main exception was in

the Jos area, where a slight cooling was recorded. The most significant increases were recorded in the extreme

northeast, extreme northwest and extreme southwest, where average temperatures rose by 1.4-1.9oC. In the

future, the scenarios of temperature change suggest a warmer climate. For rainfall, the projected changes vary across the country, with scenarios suggesting a wetter climate in the south, but a drier climate in the northeast.

Although projected annual rainfall increases in some parts of the country and decreases in others, all areas show

increases in rainfall during at least some part of the year. This paper discusses these current and future climate

change scenarios in the country and the possible impacts it will have on social, environmental, political and

economic spheres of the country.

COPING WITH AND ADAPTING TO CLIMATE CHANGE: SOME

PERSPECTIVES FROM NIGERIA

H. Darda’u1*, A. Yaro1*, and S.A. Mashi2 1Department of Geography, Umaru Musa Yar’adua University, PMB 2218, Katsina, Nigeria

2Department of Geography & Environmental Management, University of Abuja, PMB 117, Abuja, Nigeria

The fact that climate of Nigeria is changing is no longer contested. Likewise, the negative effects the changes

are having on the environment and livelihoods in the country are largely known. The country is geographically

divided into 3 broad climatic regions: very high rainfall areas to the south, moderate to high rainfall in the

middle and central and low to very low in the northern and extreme northern parts of the country. As

manifestations of climate change, abnormal climatic patterns (such as occurrence of flooding in areas that

hitherto do not receive high rainfall, excessive heat in areas that hitherto used to be cooler as well as shortening

length of growing periods) are causing changes in environmental conditions that hitherto used not be

experienced. As Nigerians depend heavily on the environment for survival (as farmers, fishermen, hunters etc)

they have to as a matter of necessity device strategies of coping with and adapting to such changes. This paper

undertakes an overview of the major climate change coping and adaptation strategies that people in Nigeria undertake. It was shown that the coping adaptation strategies vary clearly with geographical locations and socio-

cultural orientation of the people. Most of the strategies are indigenous in nature and reflect the wealth of

environmental knowledge and the experiences of the people.


67

HIGH SODIUM IN DRINKING WATER IN COASTAL COMMUNITIES OF

BANGLADESH Salman Sakib1, A. B. M. Pasha1 and Nadim R. Khandaker 2

1Department of Civil Engineering, Military Institute of Science and Technology, Dhaka-1216, Bangladesh, 2Associate Professor, Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, North South University, Dhaka,

Bangladesh,

The association of hypertension and its associated health risk with high intake of sodium is well documented to

the extent that The World Health Organization have set the limit for allowable level of sodium in drinking water at 25 mg/L. In this study we analyzed for sodium in well waters from different coastal communities of

Bangladesh. We specifically wanted to check whether the coastal communities of Bangladesh are drinking and

cooking with high sodium water, and thus being vulnerable to developing hypertension and with its associated

risk of cardiovascular diseases. We sampled well waters from five coastal districts of Bangladesh with high

population density. In each district the wells sampled were tagged with global positioning system, the depth of

the well was noted and the collected water samples were brought to the laboratory for analysis. We analyzed the

collected samples for sodium, total dissolved solids and conductivity. With the data based generated we

developed a GIS map showing the sodium concentration against the location of the wells. In our study to date

the majority of the wells sampled exceeded the WHO limit for sodium and are thus venerable to developing

hypertension.

Key words: Potable Water, High Sodium, Costal Bangladesh.

MAINSTREAMING DROUGHT RISK MANAGEMENT IN NORTHWEST

BANGLADESH IN THE CONTEXT OF CLIMATE CHANGE

Shamsuddin Shahid

Associate Professor

Department of Hydraulics & Hydrology, Faculty of Civil Engineering

Universiti Teknologi Malaysia (UTM),Johor Bahru, Malaysia

Droughts are recurrent phenomena in the northwestern districts of Bangladesh. In the last forty years, the area suffered eleven droughts of major magnitude. The national and local authorities initiated number of measures in

early nineties in order to manage the drought risk in the region. An assessment has been carried out in this paper

to assess how initiatives improved the people’s resilience to droughts. A number of institutional, socio-

economical and physical indicators including participation in water management, water harvesting, crop

diversity, irrigation practices, practices for soil moisture retention, diversity in income, awareness about

environment, use of micro-credit, etc. have been used. The study shows an overall increase of people’s

resilience to droughts in the study area. However, continuous fall of groundwater level has emerged as a severe

threat to drought resilience in recent years. The modeling of future climate with the IPCC B2 SRES scenario

shows an increase of rainfall by 4% in 2050 in the study area. However, the increased rainfall will not alleviate

the drought situation; rather it may be deteriorated and groundwater situation may be aggravated due to the

shifting of monsoon, more variation of inter-annual rainfall and higher irrigation demand due to higher

temperature. The present study proposed a number of measures including changes in cropping pattern, sustainable management of groundwater resources, improved management of irrigation, etc. to streamlining the

adaptation process to build effective drought resilience to cope with the climate change impacts in Northwest

Bangladesh.

Keywords: Droughts, Climate Change, Resilience, Bangladesh


68

ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGE, LIVELIHOOD TRANSFORMATION, AND

SHIFTING DISASTER RISK THRESHOLDS.

THOMSON, Jack – Institute for Sustainable Futures University of Technology, Sydney AUSTRALIA

PRIOR, Timothy – Centre for Security Studies, Swiss Federal Institute of Technology, SWITZERLAND

PADDON, Michael - Institute for Sustainable Futures, University of Technology, Sydney AUSTRALIA

PLANT, Roelof – Institute for Sustainable Futures, University of Technology, Sydney AUSTRALIA

By necessity, resilience has been a traditional feature of many communities in developing nations, having evolved and adapted closely in relationship to local natural environments. However, traditional land use patterns and cultures are being altered at an unprecedented pace and scale as they come under pressure from climate change, globalised markets, and labour movement. This is especially true of those environments and societies hitherto on the periphery of larger-scale industrial economies. This paper discusses the nature of transformation and trans-boundary impacts within poorer communities in Least Developed Nations through a case study in disaster risk reduction with three communities in southern Lao PDR. Cross-border trade, infrastructure development, off-farm migration, and transition to commercial agricultural production have resulted in higher incomes for some, but have placed greater stress on local socio-ecological systems. Respondents themselves believed that the very nature of this change across temporal and spatial scales makes it very difficult, and indeed potentially counterproductive, to predict the nature of future resilience pathways under climate change. Research further indicates that a threshold may now have been reached whereby in the event of any crisis, traditional coping strategies may no longer be viable and that the best option may lie in outmigration. Key words: transformation, disaster, migration

A SIMULATION STUDY ON THE ROLE OF RAIN GARDEN IN SHIELDING

AQUATIC SYSTEMS FROM THERMAL POLLUTION Sachindra Kaushalya1, Saheli Rudra1, Veeresh Mustapure1, Zubeda Begum1,

Ramya R2, and Rajesh Gopinath2.

1Project Scholars, 2Assistant Professor

Department of Civil Engineering, Acharya Institute of Technology, India

In modern cities largely due to the prevalence of impervious surfaces such as asphalt and concrete, the Storm

runoff leads excess precipitation into water bodies. However as this urban runoff absorbs heat radiated by the

anthropogenic surfaces, they eventually introduce thermal pollution in the receiving aquatic environment

thereby impairing it in a manner similar to global warming / climate change. To resolve this environmental problem, the present study probes the efficiency of Rain Gardens, as a mitigation strategy, via simulation

analysis. Rain gardens are essentially manmade depressions that permit receiving runoff from impervious urban

areas. To achieve the study objective, on a vast empty plot two rain gardens having same design was

constructed, with their outflow leading separately to two artificially created identical pond ecosystems. While

the catchment of one rain garden was maintained as a rural terrain, the other included asphalted and concreted

surfaces. The deviation in temperature will be analysed for before and after rainfall for a period of 1 year to

account all seasonal variations. The results shall converge on synthesising sustainable guidelines for effective

inception of rain-gardens in urban landscapes.

Keywords – rain, garden, climate, change.


69

SOCIAL - BUSINESS MODEL FOR CLIMATE CHANGE MITIGATION

THROUGH REFORESTATION, A CASE STUDY HINIDUMA BIO-LINK

PROJECT, SRI LANKA

Lakmini Senadheera, D.K.1, Sampath Wahala, W.M.P.2, Sanith Wijeyerathne, S.D.1

1 Carbon Consulting Company, 2Sabaragamuwa University of Sri Lanka

There is a growing assumption that payments for environmental services to climate change mitigation provide

an opportunity for poverty reduction and the enhancement of sustainable development within integrated natural

resource management approaches.

‘Hiniduma Bio-link Project”, is a project where reforesting the traditional home gardens using “analog forestry” concept in wet zone of Sri Lanka’. It is an effort to establish a biodiversity corridor in between remnant

rainforest patches in South Western region of Sri Lanka and to conserve buffer zones around the forest edges.

Proposed biodiversity corridor is a 10 ha pilot project.

The CO2 sequestered through this project will generate carbon credits that can be sold as Voluntary Carbon

Units (VCU’s) credits in international carbon markets. This project empowers and makes partners of traditional

communities living in close proximity to tracts of natural forest where biodiversity is high, but under threat.

The Project has helped show how carbon sequestering initiatives can prove economically viable not only for the

project developers but for the community as well. By involving the community in the project processes it has

ensured that increased community respect, ownership and responsibility towards their surrounding environment

is inbuilt into the system, promoting sustainability in the long run.

Keywords: Reforestation, climate change mitigation, Livelihood enhancement

CLIMATE POLICY MAKING IN INDIA AND CHINA: A COMPARATIVE

ANALYSIS.

Robert MIZO

Assistant Professor (Ad Hoc)

Kamala Nehru College, University of Delhi.

Climate policy making has come to be a central part of international and domestic politics today. India and

China, two among the largest global emitters and also anticipated to be big sufferers of climate impacts, have developed elaborate climate policies in their respective ways. However, given that climate change is hardly an

issue of ecological concern alone for the developing countries, India and China are faced with larger

developmental concerns which they must take into consideration while dealing with the problem of climate

change.

This paper therefore looks into the determinants of climate policy making in India and China. It seeks to

understand the various international, domestic and ideational influences to policy making on climate change.

The paper would further provide a comparative analysis of climate policy measures these countries have

adopted so as to understand the similarities and differences there in.

Key words: Climate policy, India, China.


70

IS ENTREPRENEURSHIP AN IMPORTANT DETERMINANT OF FARMERS'

ADAPTATION TO CLIMATE CHANGE IN A SMALLHOLDER FARMING

COMMUNITY IN SRI LANKA?

Mohamed Esham

Department of Agribusiness Management, Faculty of Agricultural Sciences, Sabaragamuwa University of Sri

Lanka, Belihuloya, Sri Lanka

Global climate change is having serious implications for the smallholder dominated agricultural sector in Sri

Lanka. The extreme climate events have increased in the recent years and will continue to increase with serious

consequences for the agricultural sector in Sri Lanka. Given the gravity of the issue, it will be important to draw

ideas and insights from different disciplines and perspectives for understanding and developing solution for this

vital issue. In this context, this study looks at the entrepreneurial orientation of farmers and how it influences

the adaptation practices of smallholder farmers. The study was conducted in the Imbulpe divisional secretariat

division of the Ratnapura district covering predominately paddy growing farmers under minor irrigation. Data

was collected from 120 smallholder farmers using structured questionnaires and focus group discussions.

The study identified an array of climate change adaptation practices such as crop management, land management, irrigation management, income diversification and rituals. The results revealed that all three

entrepreneurial orientation dimensions; risk preference, innovativeness and opportunity seeking were

statistically significant with level of adaptation to climate change. The study underscores the importance of

entrepreneurial skill development in the process of building communities' resilience to climate change.

Keywords: Adaptation; climate change; entrepreneurship; smallholder farmers

CLIMATE VULNERABILITY AND CAPACITY ANALYSIS (CVCA): FOUR SUB-

DISTRICTS MANAGEMENT PLAN OF BANGLADESH.

1Barman Shyamal Kanti,, 2Haque Kabir Ikramul, 3Gazi M. A. Jalil

A climate change project of Bangladesh Agricultural Research Council conducted "Climate Vulnerability and

Capacity Analysis (CVCA)" survey in 2011 in four sub-districts of Bangladesh; two districts (Patuakhali and

Barguna) are in the south and saline prone areas and rest two (Rangpur and Nilphamari) are in the northern

drought prone areas. About one-third of the surveyed population (29.3%) belonged to 15-30 years and 25% in

the 31-45 years group. The overall literacy rate of the household members is observed about 52%. The

respondent household heads are engaged fishing, agriculture, laborer, aquaculture, service and small business to

maintain their livelihoods. Overall 63.3% respondent households are landless. The average annual income per

household is US$ 1893. In an average 53% households are involved in aquaculture practice; more than half of

them (51%) are practicing extensive type of aquaculture. Tidal surge, cyclone, salinity intrusion, erratic behaviour of rainfall, drought, riverbank erosion, flash flood, water-logging are the major climatic hazards

identified by the respondents. These hazards have severe impact on their crops, fish and livelihoods. CVCA

exercises suggested for different technology options for adaptation in the fisheries sector; e.g. hapa breeding of

tilapia, cage aquaculture, seabass and featherback culture, rice-fish, crab fattening, hapa nursing of shrimp post

larvae (PL), community based floodplain management, fish sanctuary, etc.

Key words: CVCA, Fisheries, Bangladesh


71

COMPREHENDING TRANSFORMATION AND PEACE POTENTIAL OF

KASHMIR CONFLICT; MAKING CASE FOR PEACE THROUGH TOURISM

ACROSS THE LINE OF CONTROL (LOC)

1 M. WaqasIdrees, Phd Scholar, National Defence University, Islamabad, Pakistan. 2 Mehwish Qayyum Durani, Phd Scholar, National Defence University, Islamabad, Pakistan.

South Asia has some unmatched characteristics that are distinct from other regions. India and Pakistan share the disputed territory of the state of Jammu and Kashmir, over which three full scale wars and a limited war have

been fought under the nuclear shadow and a history of mistrust and hatred, describes their relationship. In the

past, many results less initiatives have been tried. In the recent development of engaging through confidence

building measures, both India and Pakistan have used CBMs more as “competition building measures than as

confidence building measures. A lot more is needed, far more than the existing CBMs in Kashmir, which are

directed at only select communities and select regions. Cross-LOC tourism can be a socio-political and an

economic ‘Add’ on to the entire population of J&K, irrespective of community, sub-region and conflict.

CLIMATE CHANGE AND THE FATE OF ACACIA MODESTA WALL. IN THE

SWAT DISTRICT, NORTHERN PAKISTAN

Kishwar Ali1and Inayat Ur Rahman 2 and Nasrullah Khan 2

1Department of Plant Sciences, School of Biological Sciences, University of Reading UK 2Department of Botany University of Malakand Chakdara Dir Lower Khyber Pakhtunkhwa Pakistan

The effect of the global climate change was assessed in the Swat Valley of Northern Pakistan, to understand the

future of one of the important tree species i.e. Acacia modesta Wall. This species is of a significant ecological

and ethnomedicinal importance to the area. The Maximum entropy (MaxEnt) modelling technique of species

prediction and distribution was applied, using HADCM3 A2a global climate change scenario. It was concluded

that by the 2080 there will be a significant change in the distribution and density of the species. The results

obtained show a “good model” for both present and future models, gaining the AUC values 0.989 for training

data and 0.969 for test data. The results indicate the highest gain for bioclimatic variable (bio-9, mean

temperature of the driest quarter), while the lowest gain was recorded for bio-14. This suggests that in the future, the species will grow in density probably at the expense of other useful plants. The predicted changes in the

distribution and density of the species in the future prediction model can have immense ecological and

socioeconomic impact on the area.

Key words: Climate change, Acacia modesta, Predictive modelling, MaxEnt, Swat Valley, Pakistan


72

FRAMEWORK FOR CLIMATE VULNERABILITY AND RISK ASSESSMENT IN

INDONESIA, THE IMPLEMENTATION CHALLENGE

Denia Syam

Asian Cities Climate Change Resilience Network (ACCCRN), Mercy Corps Indonesia, Indonesia

In Indonesian context, the terminology and conception of vulnerability is characterized by a diversity of

geographic and social characteristics which then provides an opportunity to prepare a generic vulnerability

assessment framework. This general framework is expected could provide flexibility for actors to adjust and detailing the study in accordance with the scope of the desired context, such as the physical characteristics and

scope of social studies, including adjustments to the existing horizontal and vertical governance mechanism.

However, this flexibility also needs to be constrained by the core substance which needs to be contained in the

vulnerability and risk assessment. A recent development at the global level emphasizes the significance of social

aspects that has been often 'sidelined' in the process of climate vulnerability and risk assessment.

The dynamic and uncertain characteristic of climate vulnerability and risk assessment (CVRA) encourages the

need for iterative and continuous implementation of the mechanism in the process of climate change adaptation

and disaster risk management, which then implies to the need on: i)Mainstreaming climate change adaptation

and disaster risk management context into national development planning; ii) Qualified horizontal and vertical

coordination systems which synergistic with the institutional framework of Indonesia; iii) Synergy between

updating and refinement ofCVRAas a basis for adaptation strategy development,with the formulation of government policy and work programs at various levels of government; iv) Supporting mechanisms for periodic

and continual development ofCVRA.

Keywords: Framework,Indonesia, Vulnerability


73

CLIMATE CHANGE AND INTERNATIONAL LEGAL CONTROLS – A CRITICAL

STUDY

Prof.Dr.D.Gopal, HOD, Dept of Environmental Law and Legal Order, Tamil Nadu Dr.Ambedkar Law

University, Chennai – 28, India, & Prof.Dr.S. Ganapathy Venkata Subramanian, Associate Professor,

Centre for Environmental Studies, Anna University, Chennai, India,

Abstract

Climate change is a change of climate which is attributed directly or indirectly to human

activity that alters the composition of global atmosphere and which is in addition to natural climate variability

observed over comparable time periods. The earth’s climate is determined in large part by the presence of

naturally occurring greenhouse gases including in particular water vapour, Carbon Dioxide (CO2), Methane

(CH4), CFC, Nitrous Oxide (N2O) and Tropospheric Ozone (O3). These are transparent to the incoming short

wave solar radiation but absorb and trap long wave radiation emitted by the earth’s surface. Their presence

exerts a warning influence on the earth. Scientific evidence suggests that continued increase in atmospheric

concentrations of selected greenhouse gases due to human activities lead to an enhanced greenhouse effect and

global climate change. The First IPCC Report 1990, the Second IPCC Report 1992 and latest IPCC reports

predicted that on a ‘business-as-usual’ emissions scenario would raise temperature of about 2°C to 4°C by 2100

and consequent increase of global rainfall and raise in global mean sea level. It also predicted that anthropogenic warning leading to increased precipitation and greater risk of extreme weather conditions such as floods and

droughts. In 1988 and 1989, the UN General Assembly determined that climate change is a common concerned

of mankind and urged governments and inter-governmental and non-governmental organisations to collaborate

in a concerted effort to prepare, as matter of urgency, a Frame Work Convention on Climate Change and finally

the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change was signed and adopted by 155 states in June 1992 with an

objective to stabilise green house gases concentrations in atmosphere. Subsequently, the Kyoto Protocol was

adopted to the Frame Work Convention on Climate Change. The paper would discuss the global scenario of

climate change, the causes and impact of climate change and also analyse the legal controls at international level

to prevent dangerous anthropogenic interference with climate system.

Keywords: Climate Change, atmosphere, greenhouse gases, Global Climate Scenario, IPCC, FCCC, Legal

Controls, Longwave and Shortwave radiation,

Introduction

Climate change, generally, means a change or a variation in a weather. Climate change may be limited

to a specific region or may occur across the whole Earth. UNFCCC defines climate change as a change of

climate which is attributed directly or indirectly to human activity that alters the composition of the global

atmosphere and which is in addition to natural climate variability observed over comparable time periods.2 The

Earth’s climate is determined in large part by the presence of naturally occurring greenhouse gases including in

particular water vapour, carbon-di-oxide (CO2), methane (CH4), CFC, Nitrous Oxide (N2O) and Tropospheric

Ozone (O3). These are transparent to the incoming short wave solar radiation but absorb and trap long wave

radiation emitted by the Earth’s surface. About 30% of incoming energy from the sun is reflected back into

space while the rest reaches the earth, warming the air, oceans and land and maintaining the average temperature

of the earth. The scientific evidence suggests that continued increase in atmosphere concentration of selected

greenhouse gases due to human activities will lead to enhanced greenhouse effect and global climate change. This accelerated warming of global atmosphere is called climate change. The first IPCC Report, the second

IPCC Report and latest IPCC Reports predicted that on a “business-as-usual” emissions scenario would raise

temperature of about 2oC to 4oC by 2100 and consequent increase of global rainfall and rise in global mean sea

level. It also predicted that anthropogenic warming leading to increased percipitation and greater risk of extreme

weather condition such as floods and draughts.3 In 1988 and 1989, the U.N. General Assembly determined that

climate change is a common concern of mankind and urged governments and Inter-governmental and non-

governmental organization to collaborate in a concerted efforts to prepare, as a matter of urgency a Frame work

convention on climate change4 and finally the UN Framework convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) was

signed and adopted by 155 Nations in June 1992 with an objective to stabilize greenhouse gases concentrations

in atmosphere.5 Subsequently the Kyoto Protocol was adopted to the Framework convention to climate change.

The paper would highlight the global scenario, causes and impact of climate change and legal controls at international level to prevent dangerous anthropogenic interference with climate system.

2 Art. 1(2) of UN Frame work on Climate Change, 9th May 1992 -Definitions 3 IPCC, Climate Change. The IPCC Scientific Assessment (1990) 4 UNGA, Res 43/53. UNGA- Res 44/207 (1989) 5 Newyork, 9th May 1992, in force 24th March1994, 31, ILM 849 (1992), Art 23(1). The convention attracted

Tewnty six ratification within a year of its adoption and by June 2001, 186 States were parties


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Causes of climate change

The earth’s climate is dynamic and always changing through a natural cycle. The Human activities

have a warming effect on the earth’s climate. Therefore the causes of climate change can be divided into two

categories – Natural and Human causes.

Natural causes of climate change

The earth’s climate is influenced and changed through natural causes like volcanic eruptions, ocean current, the earth’s orbital changes and solar variation. When a volcano erupts it throws out large volumes of

sulpher dioxide (SO2), water vapour, dust and ash into the atmosphere. Although the volcanic activity may last

only a few days, yet the large volumes of gases and ash can influence climate patterns for years.6 The oceans

play an important role in determining the atmosphere concentration of CO2. Changes in ocean circulation may

affect the climate through the movement of CO2 into or out of the atmosphere.7

The earth makes full orbit around the sun each year. While orbiting, earth tilts and consequently it leads

to climate change as to the strength of the seasons.8 The sun is the source of energy for the earth’s climate

system. Although the sun’s energy output appears contant from an everyday point of view, small changes over

an extended period of time would lead to climate changes.9 Thus the natural variability and climate functions

would influence the patterns of climate change.

Human causes of climate change Industrial Revolution in the 19th century saw the large scale use of Fossil fuels for industrial activity.

Moreover the natural resources are being used extremely for construction, industries, transport and

consumption. Consumerism has increased by leaps and bounds creating mountains of waste. All this has

contributed to a rise in greenhouse gases in atmosphere. The major greenhouse gases caused by human activity

are carbon dioxide, methane, nitrous oxide, CFC and tropospheric ozone. Development in science and

technology in the last hundred years has added up enormous amount of greenhouse gases.10 The enhanced

greenhouse effect induces the atmosphere to trap more heat and makes the planet warm altering the global

climate patterns.

Impact of climate change

The act of releasing greenhouse gases by human activities may have unpredictable global impact due to

climate change. The effects pervade, environmental, economical, sociological factors and have a compounding

effect on the human beings and other living organisms. Some of the impacts of climate change are as follows.

Rise in sea levels worldwide

Global sea levels are likely raise mainly of two reasons. The first is thermal expansion as ocean water

warms, it expands. The second is from the contribution of land based ice due to increased melting. Sea level rise

would lead to flooding and erosion in coastal regions and the most vulnerable area are some of the islands.

Scientists predict an increase in Sea Level worldwide due to the melting of massive ice sheets in Antarctica and

Greenland.11

Massive crop failures

According to recent research there is 90% chance that 3 billion people worldwide will have to suffer

with hunger due to climate change. The climate change is expected to have the most severe impact on water

supplier. The increased heat and dryness could adversely affect both the quality and yield of crops.12 Climate

change is expected to cause a number of weather extremes which could directly affect the agricultural yields.

The rise in temperature may also result the increased pest attack and water scarcity. Warmer temperatures are likely to alter the types of crops cultivated in different region of the world.

Health

The rise in Earth’s temperature will increase the incidence of heat related diseases. Higher global

temperature would also enable vectors to move into area that were previously too cold for them to survive.

Ailments like cholera, dengue, yellow fever, malaria etc. are likely to become more rampant. A study of the

World Health Organisation (WHO) estimate the same effects of climate change on human health.13

6 Wignal. P (2001) “Large Igneous provinces and Mass extinctions” Earth Science Review 53.1 7 Keigwim Gerald. H (2004) “How the Isthumus of Panama put ice in the Arctic Oceans (Woods Hole

Oceanographic Institution) 42(2) 8 “Milankovitas Cycles and Glaciation” University of Montama. Archived from the original on 2011-7-16 9 NASA Study finds increasing Solar Trend that can change climate (2003) 10 Russell Rcendy (2007) “n The Greenhouse effect and green house gases” University Corporation for Atmospheric Research – Windows to the Universe. Retrived in 2009 11 Bondopt etal “Chaper 5 observations ocean climate change and sea level, executive summary in IPCC AR4

WG1 (2007) 12 Earthling etal. Chapter 5, Food, Fibre and Forest, 54.1 primary effects and enterartions IPCC AR4 WG2P.282 13 WHO (2009) “ Chapter 26: Environmental risks” Global Health risks mortality and burden of disease

attributable to selected Major risks (PDF) Geneva, Switzerland WHO press, P.24


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Widespread extinction of species

According to research published in ‘Nature’, by 2050, rising temperature could lead to the extinction of

more than a million species. The climate change and global warming are of great concern to wild life throughout

the world. The most seriously affected species are the ones in the Arctic and in Antarctica, where the rise in

temperature would damage the ice cover. Climate change has been estimated to be a major driver of biodiversity

loss in cool confer forest, savannas, Mediterranean climate system, Tropical forests in the Arctic tundra and in coral reefs.14 In other ecosystems, land use change may be stronger driver of bio-diversity loss atleast in the near

term.

Disappearance of coral reefs and marine organisms A report on coral reefs from WWF says that in a worst case scenario, coral population will collapse in

2100 due to increased temperature and ocean acidification. The oceans have acted as a sink in observing extra

heat from the atmosphere. About one third of the carbon dioxide emitted by the human activity has been taken

up by the oceans. It causes acidification of ocean waters. The ocean acidification would affect the marine

biosphere and also impaire a wide range of planktonic and shallow benthic marine organisms that use arangonite

to make their shells or skeletons, such as corals and marine snails with significant adverse impacts.15

Climate change in developing countries

Although the effects of climate change are seen throughout the world, it is the developing countries who will

suffer the most. All developing countries are more vulnerable because their economic activity heavily relies on natural resources. The large population of developing countries lives in disaster-prone areas which have no

institutional capacity to cope with disasters. The developing countries are lacking in scientific and

Technological knowledge and also lacking adequate infrastructure and economic resources. It is also a fact that

the richer and developed world has predominantly contributed to emissions of greenhouse gases. Strangely, the

industrialized nations that contribute 20% of the world’s population are responsible for nearly 80% of the world

total emission.

International legal controls

Climate change is the ultimate international problem because of its gravity and of geographical reach of

causes and effects. In order to reduce the effects of climate change the primary agreements adopted at

international level are United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) signed at Reo de

Janerio Earth Summit in 1992 and the Kyoto Protocol to the UNFCCC, signed at Kyoto, Japan in 1997. However, the implementation and ratification and acceptance of the treatise by the world community are not

satisfactory. The climate law must explore the rich diversity of international, regional, national, sub-national and

trans-national responses to climate change. But as the treatise is silent, the effects of climate change are

progressive. The UN Framework Convention on Climate Change is the First International Environmental

Agreement for the protection of global climate. The UNFCCC consists of 26 Articles and 2 Annex

Objectives and principles of the unfccc

The preamble of the Convention deals with wide range of interests. The preamble refers the concept of

“per capita emissions” and ‘energy efficacy’ matters which did not receive sufficient support in the operational

part of the Convention16. The objective of the convention is to stabilize greenhouse concentrations in the

atmosphere, but convention itself recognizes that climate change is inevitable and in time frame it would be

possible to stabilize. Article 3 of the convention set out the principles to guide the parties in achieving the

objectives and implementing the provisions. All these principles are based on the “Equity” and in accordance with their common but differentiated responsibility. Therefore the developed countries have to take lead but

practically a few are taking lead.

General commitments

Art.4 of the Convention deals with the commitments. To achieve the objectives of the convention, all

parties are committed to take certain measures, taking into account their common but differentiated

responsibilities and priorities, objectives and circumstances. Another commitment under Art.4 of the convention

is that all parties are required to promote, co-operate in the diffusion of technologies, practices and process that

control, prevent and reduce anthropogenic emissions of greenhouse gases. How far this commitment is being

followed by the developed nations is a big question. As the economically poor with large population, whether

the developing countries can afford to pay the cost of the technology transfer to the Developed nation? As per

the commitment whether they are giving on free of cost is also a doubtful one.

Communication of information related to implementation – reporting

All parties are required to communicate to the conference of parties (COP), information on

implementation, a National inventory of anthropogenic emission by source and removal by sinks of all

14 Fischiln et al. Chapter 4 Ecosystem their properties, goods and services, Section 4.4.11, global synthesis

including impact on biodiversity in IPCC AR4 WG2 2007 15 IPCC “Synthesis Report, Section 3.3.4. Ocean acidification in IPCC AR4 SYR 2007 16 Philippe Sands “Principles of International Environmental Law” Second Edition Cambridge 2003 P.361


76

greenhouse gases and other relevant information including that relevant for calculating global emission

Trends.17 But no countries are furnishing the information. The developed countries are not interested in

furnishing the information about emission of their country. For other countries the reports were to be made

within three years of entry into force18. This commitment is also not followed properly

Financial resources and technology transfer

As per UNFCCC, Annex II parties have to undertake the specific financial commitments. The developed countries agreed to provide new and additional financial resources to meet the “agreed full cost”

incurred by developing countries in fulfilling their commitment to communicate information relating to

implementation. Annex II parties also undertake to assist developing countries that are “particularly vulnerable

to adverse effects” of climate change in meeting the cost of adaptation to those adverse effects. The amount of

financial resources, effective assistance is not mentioned in the convention. However Art.4 of the Convention

specifies that full consideration must be given for every adverse effects of climate change. Annex II parties are

also required to take all practicable steps for transfer of environmentally sound technology and know-how and

support the development of indigenous capacity and technologies of developing countries.

The climate change convention establishes a conference of the parties, a secretariat, two subsidiary

bodies and financial mechanism. The conference of the parties is the supreme body of the convention, entrusted

with keeping the implementation of the convention under regular review and making decisions to promote its

effective implementation. The convention provides dispute settlement mechanism with compulsory recourse to arbitration or the International Court of Justice with consent of relevant parties19.

The 1997 kyoto protocol

Kyoto Protocol is another International Legal Instrument to combat the effect of climate change. The

Kyoto Protocol to UN Framework Convention on Climate Change was adopted by the Third Conference of the

parties in December 1997. The First Conference of the parties at Berlin in 1995 determined the commitments

provided in Art. 4 of the convention and decided to launch a process to strengthen the commitments. The

Second Conference of the parties at Geneva in 1996 clarified the scope of the Berlin mandate. In Third

Conference of the parties, the Kyoto Protocol in 1997 was adopted and opened for signature on 16 th March

1998. The provisions of Kyoto Protocol are so difficult and complex20 and divisions between parties emerged in

relation to a range of key issues such as emissions reduction targets, sinks, emission trading, joint

implementation and treatment of developing countries. In 2001, the future of the protocol was thrown into a doubt with the announcement by president George W. Bush that United States would not ratify the protocol21.

Nevertheless, the conference of the parties held in Bonn in July 2001, the remaining States agreed on

mechanisms for implementing for commitments under the protocol. Subsequently, the Bonn converted into the

legal text of the Marrakesh Accords.

Kyoto protocol – emissions reduction target and timetable

The major achievement of the Kyoto Protocol was the commitment of Annex I parties to quantified

emissions reduction Targets and a time table for their achievement. As per Art.3(1) of Kyoto Protocol the Annex

I parties must implement 30% emission reduction target during the period 2008 to 2012. The determination of

emission target for Annex I parties was a difficult issue. Therefore Annex B lists differentiated targets for

individual countries and regional economic organizations22. There was a controversy with regard to the number

of gases covered by the Kyoto Protocol. Originally upto 1995, there were three gases and six gases are covered

by the emission reduction commitments of Annex I parties such as carbon dioxide, methane, nitrous oxide, hydro fluro carbons, per-fluro carbons and sulphur hexafluoride.

Kyoto protocol – reporting and compliance

Art.5, 7 and 8 of the Kyoto Protocol deal with the detailed reporting obligation for Annex I parties.

Under these provisions the parties are required to furnish annual inventory of anthropogenic emissions by source

and removal by sinks and necessary information for the purpose of ensuring compliance with commitment under

the protocol23. The reports will be reviewed by ‘Expert Review Teams’ and identify the problems and factors

and take decisions on the matters required for the implementation of the protocol. Amendment to the protocol

can be adopted by three-fourth majority vote of the parties present. Forest management, crop land management,

grazing land management and revegitation were designed as additional eligible LULUCF activities under Art.3

(4) of the Protocol.

17 Art. 12(2) of UNFCCC 18 Art. 12(5) of UNFCCC 19

Art. 13 and 14 of UNFCCC 20 Philippe Sands “ Principles of International Environmental Law” Second Edition Cambridge 2003 P. 370 21 Bush Press Conference at White House, 29th March 2001. 22 E.U. and its member states agreed on 8% reduction USA 7%, Japan and Canada 6% and Australia and Iceland

8% and 10% respectively 23 Philippe Sands “ Principles of International Environmental Law” Second Edition Cambridge 2003 P. 372


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In addition to the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change and Kyoto Protocol there are number

of legal instrument which deal with the reduction of emission of green house gases at regional and inter-national

levels. They are CBD, 1978 Brand Report which deals with the greenhouse effects in energy section, 1979,

World Climate Conference, 1987 Montreal Protocol, Inter-governmental panel on climate change, and 2006

climate action board. These protocols, documents and guidelines would also deal directly or indirectly with the

climate change.

Conclusion

Climate change is the greatest and most urgent Environmental challenge facing mankind today. For the

sake of present and future generation and the future of the planet, let us rise to the challenge and take serious

action to takle it. The global warming theory needs to be taken very seriously and act upon as quickly as

possible. The USA has been in the forefront in spreading awareness about climate change, now the time has

come when the mighty nations should actively participate in the forthcoming conferences of implementation of

Kyoto Protocol to reach the practical solution to the problem. All countries specially the developed need to co-

operate with each other and solve this problem. For the few years the big companies like Ford, Tata and Birla

and oil companies like B.P and shall have began to pour billions into research in finding new technologies to

reduce carbon emission. Climate change mitigation, along with legal frame work methods, is also an important

technique to reduce the emission of greenhouse gases. The government and non-governmental organizations at

National and international levels have to adopt new techniques and Methods to mitigate the climate change. The mitigation can be achieved by increasing the capacity of carbon sinks through reforestation, and also by low

carbon energy resource such as renewable and nuclear energy. Energy efficiency and geoengineering may also

play an important role in climate change mitigation.

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