Climate Services for Improving Adaptation to Climate Variability and Change

Climate Services for

Improving Adaptation to

Climate Variability and Change

Walter E. BaethgenDirector, Regional and Sectorial Research Program

Leader, Latin America and CaribbeanIRI, Columbia University, New York

Walter E. Baethgen 2015

http://www.climate-services.org/

1. Production, Translation, Transfer, and Use

2. Climate-informed decision making, policy and planning

“Climate services involve the Production, Translation, Transfer, and Use of Climate Knowledge and Information in climate-informed decision making and climate-smart policy and planning.”

Climate Services: Definition


Climate Services: Knowledge Production, Translation, Transfer, and Use

Example of a Medical Service

Problem: Patient with Headache Doctor’s recommendation: CAT Scan


Example of a Medical Service: CAT Scan

All links are needed (eliminate one and the chain falls)

Each one can give information to the Patient (end user) based on their knowledge and experiences

Only one can give the Patient"ACTIONABLE” information

The patient still decidesWhat to do (maybe nothing)Evaluation?

Fundamental research on X-Rays(didn’t think / didn’t care about applications)

Basic research on Digital Geometric Processing

(didn’t think / didn’t care about applications)

Applied research that connected images with edemas

(thought about applications)

Technician: CAT scanner operator(Operational)

Doctor / Neurologist

Patient

Private Sector(Opportunity for investing in CAT Scanner)

Climate Services: Knowledge Production, Translation, Transfer, and Use


Translation, Transfer and Use: Information Networks(Very) Simplified Example in Agriculture

• Understand the Network (links, processes)• Identify weak links (inexistent)• Identify “key” nodes for effective interaction

Requires Research

International Research

ClimateLocal

UniversityAgriculturalResearchInstitute

AdvisersFarmers

Farmer

Ministry

RegionalResearch Institute

International Research Agriculture

LocalUniversity

LocalUniversity

Rural SocialResearchInstitute

ClimateResearchInstitute

ExtensionService,

NGO

AdvisersMinistry

Insurance

Agribusiness

MeteorologicalService

FinancialServices


Information and

DECISION

SUPPORT

SYSTEMS

Climate services include Production, Translation, Transfer, and Use of Climate Knowledge:

Integrate Climate with Agronomy, Economy, Markets


FEB 1- 10 FEB 11 – 20 FEB 21 – 28

MAR 1- 10 MAR 11 – 20 MAR 21 - 28

Uruguay 2015:

INIA – IRI (IDSS) = SNIAProvided information toMinistry of Agriculture

Soil Water Content(Translate Climate into Agronomy)

Original Soil Water Balanceper Soil Type

Decisions: per AdministrativeUnit (parish / county)

5 May: Ministry declaredEmergency in 4 Eastern provinces

-Special Credit for feed-Prioritize response

APR 1- 10 APR 11 – 20 APR 21 - 28


Climate Services for Improving Adaptation to CC:

Adapt to What? Future Climate in my Region?Climate Change Scenarios: Using Climate Models (GCMs)


Adapt to What?Climate Change Scenarios: Using Climate Models (GCMs)

1. Great advances in science,but still lots to understand:Limitations of the Models

Example: over / underestimation of rainfall observed in 1900 - 2010

2. Key Input: GHG Emissions

Assumptions:(e.g., in 2080-2100)

Technologies? Energy Sources? Deforestation rates?Population?

Uncertainties

Socioeconomic Scenarios: optimistic to pessimistic


Connect RCPs with Climate Models: IPCC Scenarios Example: Change in Global Temperature

Walter E. Baethgen 2015 Giannini et al., 2007

For Precipitation Uncertainties are much larger

East Africa

This is for large “Windows”At Local level Uncertainties are much larger

East Africa:90% of ClimateModels agree in signof change (increase)

Individual runs and mean


Scenarios for Adaptation to Climate Change

Very far in the future: 2080-2100 (and urgent needs)

Very coarse in spatial scale (and local needs)and downscaling does not help

Very uncertain (especially rainfall, local level)

Hard to consider in actual decisions


Current Paradigm: “PREDICTIVE” (Noah’s Ark)

(R. Terra, 2014, in prep)

Perfect Information about the Future: a Climatic Cataclism is comingAction: Build infrastructure and save Biodiversity

But: We do not have (will not have) Perfect Information of the Future Climate

Need a new Paradigm


Paradigm 2: Ginkgo biloba


Ginkgo biloba

Approx 1,000m from epicenter in Hiroshima

2 million years of EvolutionAdapted (resilient) to a wide range of conditionsUnprecedent extreme event (A-bomb)

Somehow 6 Ginkgos Survived

Paradigm: Adapt with “flexibility”

• We will not have “perfect” information• Adapt to a range of plausible conditions• Start by Adapting to today’s conditions

Paradigm 2: Ginkgo biloba

(Rafael Terra, 2014, in prep)


Climate Services for Agriculture

Include: Production, Translation, Transfer, and Use

Consideration of Information Networks (vs. just “end users”)

Production requires Research (basic and applied)

Translation, Transfer, and Use require:

Integration of Climate with other relevant Information

Training on communication, translation, integration, use

Climate Services and Adaptation: New ParadigmAdapt with Flexibility (starting with today’s climate)

Translation of climate information into Agronomic information


Thank you

Walter E. Baethgen

Director, Regional and Sectorial Research Program

Leader, Latin America and Caribbean

IRI, Earth Institute

Columbia University, New York

[email protected]

Climate Services for Improving Adaptation to Climate Variability and Change

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