Climate Science How serious is the problem?
description
Transcript of Climate Science How serious is the problem?
![Page 1: Climate Science How serious is the problem?](https://reader035.fdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022081515/56816309550346895dd38860/html5/thumbnails/1.jpg)
Climate ScienceHow serious is the problem?
Bruce M. EverettJuly 15, 2014
![Page 2: Climate Science How serious is the problem?](https://reader035.fdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022081515/56816309550346895dd38860/html5/thumbnails/2.jpg)
The argument as portrayed in the press
YesIs climate
change real?
No
Do something
Do nothing
![Page 3: Climate Science How serious is the problem?](https://reader035.fdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022081515/56816309550346895dd38860/html5/thumbnails/3.jpg)
The real argument is much more complicated
Has the Earth warmed?
Yes.(Some debate
about numbers.)
![Page 4: Climate Science How serious is the problem?](https://reader035.fdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022081515/56816309550346895dd38860/html5/thumbnails/4.jpg)
The real argument is much more complicated
Are humans responsible?
Yes.(Not sure
how much.)
Has the Earth warmed?
Yes.(Some debate
about numbers.)
![Page 5: Climate Science How serious is the problem?](https://reader035.fdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022081515/56816309550346895dd38860/html5/thumbnails/5.jpg)
President Obama’s Tweet(May 16, 2013)
![Page 6: Climate Science How serious is the problem?](https://reader035.fdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022081515/56816309550346895dd38860/html5/thumbnails/6.jpg)
• Examined abstracts of 14,000 papers on climate.
• Did not interview authors.
• Selected 2,000 which addressed climate change.
• Concluded that 97% either:
– State that humans are the primary cause of observed global warming, or
– State or imply that humans caused some of the observed warming, but don’t say how much.
Professor Cook’s Study
http://iopscience.iop.org/1748-9326/8/2/024024/article
![Page 7: Climate Science How serious is the problem?](https://reader035.fdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022081515/56816309550346895dd38860/html5/thumbnails/7.jpg)
President Obama’s Tweet(May 16, 2013)
and, to some degree,
ˆ
![Page 8: Climate Science How serious is the problem?](https://reader035.fdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022081515/56816309550346895dd38860/html5/thumbnails/8.jpg)
The real argument is much more complicated
Are humans responsible?
Can we predict future
warming?
No!Climate system is
too complex. Scientific
understanding is insufficient.
Yes.(Not sure
how much.)
Has the Earth warmed?
Yes.(Some debate
about numbers.)
![Page 9: Climate Science How serious is the problem?](https://reader035.fdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022081515/56816309550346895dd38860/html5/thumbnails/9.jpg)
Complex Systems – Bird SwarmsCan we predict their behavior?
![Page 10: Climate Science How serious is the problem?](https://reader035.fdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022081515/56816309550346895dd38860/html5/thumbnails/10.jpg)
How do we know whether we
understand the problem?
Science!
![Page 11: Climate Science How serious is the problem?](https://reader035.fdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022081515/56816309550346895dd38860/html5/thumbnails/11.jpg)
1. Guess
2. Compute the consequences of the guess
3. Compare the computation results to nature
Nobel Laureate Richard P. Feynmanon the Scientific Method
![Page 12: Climate Science How serious is the problem?](https://reader035.fdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022081515/56816309550346895dd38860/html5/thumbnails/12.jpg)
“It doesn't matter how beautiful your guess is or how smart you are or what your name is. If it disagrees with experiment, it's wrong.”
Nobel Laureate Richard P. Feynmanon the Scientific Method
![Page 13: Climate Science How serious is the problem?](https://reader035.fdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022081515/56816309550346895dd38860/html5/thumbnails/13.jpg)
The weather gets weird. The hots are expected to get hotter, the wets wetter, the dries drier and the most violent storms more numerous..
Thomas L. FriedmanNew York Times Columnist
![Page 14: Climate Science How serious is the problem?](https://reader035.fdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022081515/56816309550346895dd38860/html5/thumbnails/14.jpg)
The weather gets weird. The hots are expected to get hotter, the wets wetter, the dries drier and the most violent storms more numerous..
Thomas L. FriedmanNew York Times Columnist
![Page 15: Climate Science How serious is the problem?](https://reader035.fdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022081515/56816309550346895dd38860/html5/thumbnails/15.jpg)
1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010-8
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
Palmer Drought Severity Index for US
Source: NOAA
Dry
Wet
![Page 16: Climate Science How serious is the problem?](https://reader035.fdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022081515/56816309550346895dd38860/html5/thumbnails/16.jpg)
The weather gets weird. The hots are expected to get hotter, the wets wetter, the dries drier and the most violent storms more numerous..
Thomas L. FriedmanNew York Times Columnist
![Page 17: Climate Science How serious is the problem?](https://reader035.fdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022081515/56816309550346895dd38860/html5/thumbnails/17.jpg)
1949 1954 1959 1964 1969 1974 1979 1984 1989 1994 1999 2004 2009 20140
4
8
12
16
# of Category 5 Hurricanes since 1949
Trend
Source: Unisys hurricane data base
There have been no Category 5 hurricanes in the Atlantic since September 6, 2007.
![Page 18: Climate Science How serious is the problem?](https://reader035.fdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022081515/56816309550346895dd38860/html5/thumbnails/18.jpg)
Climate computer models cannot yet make any meaningful predictions.
The atmosphere has not experienced any net warming in the last 15 years.
![Page 19: Climate Science How serious is the problem?](https://reader035.fdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022081515/56816309550346895dd38860/html5/thumbnails/19.jpg)
The UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change is a committee.
Committees do politics,not science.
![Page 20: Climate Science How serious is the problem?](https://reader035.fdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022081515/56816309550346895dd38860/html5/thumbnails/20.jpg)
Science is the belief in the ignorance of experts.
Richard Feynman
![Page 21: Climate Science How serious is the problem?](https://reader035.fdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022081515/56816309550346895dd38860/html5/thumbnails/21.jpg)
We do not know if climate change is:
Catastrophic
Unimportant
Beneficial
![Page 22: Climate Science How serious is the problem?](https://reader035.fdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022081515/56816309550346895dd38860/html5/thumbnails/22.jpg)
How much does carbon mitigation cost?
Bruce M. EverettJuly 15, 2014
![Page 23: Climate Science How serious is the problem?](https://reader035.fdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022081515/56816309550346895dd38860/html5/thumbnails/23.jpg)
CO2 reduction 0 100%
Carbon mitigation
Easy and cheap
Harder and more
expensive
Difficult and painful
$/to
nne
of C
O2
![Page 24: Climate Science How serious is the problem?](https://reader035.fdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022081515/56816309550346895dd38860/html5/thumbnails/24.jpg)
$/to
nne
of C
O2
CO2 reduction 0 100%
Carbon mitigation
$20
$200
EasyHard
Really painful
![Page 25: Climate Science How serious is the problem?](https://reader035.fdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022081515/56816309550346895dd38860/html5/thumbnails/25.jpg)
Easy steps
Plant a treeNegligible impact
![Page 26: Climate Science How serious is the problem?](https://reader035.fdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022081515/56816309550346895dd38860/html5/thumbnails/26.jpg)
Easy steps
Compact fluorescent lights0.4% carbon reduction
![Page 27: Climate Science How serious is the problem?](https://reader035.fdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022081515/56816309550346895dd38860/html5/thumbnails/27.jpg)
Easy steps
Change your thermostat 2°0.07% reduction
![Page 28: Climate Science How serious is the problem?](https://reader035.fdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022081515/56816309550346895dd38860/html5/thumbnails/28.jpg)
Hybrid cars ($165/mt)0.8% reduction
Harder steps
![Page 29: Climate Science How serious is the problem?](https://reader035.fdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022081515/56816309550346895dd38860/html5/thumbnails/29.jpg)
$/to
nne
of C
O2
CO2 reduction 0 100%
Carbon mitigation
$20
$200
EasyHard
Really painful
Hybrid cars
![Page 30: Climate Science How serious is the problem?](https://reader035.fdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022081515/56816309550346895dd38860/html5/thumbnails/30.jpg)
Harder steps
Nuclear power ($180/mt)Cost twice as much as natural gas
Safety?Public acceptance?
![Page 31: Climate Science How serious is the problem?](https://reader035.fdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022081515/56816309550346895dd38860/html5/thumbnails/31.jpg)
$/to
nne
of C
O2
CO2 reduction 0 100%
Carbon mitigation
$20
$200
EasyHard
Really painful
Nuclear
![Page 32: Climate Science How serious is the problem?](https://reader035.fdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022081515/56816309550346895dd38860/html5/thumbnails/32.jpg)
Harder steps
Onshore wind power ($190/mt)Cost twice as much as natural gas
Low utilizationIntermittent
![Page 33: Climate Science How serious is the problem?](https://reader035.fdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022081515/56816309550346895dd38860/html5/thumbnails/33.jpg)
$/to
nne
of C
O2
CO2 reduction 0 100%
Carbon mitigation
$20
$200
EasyHard
Really painful
Onshore wind
![Page 34: Climate Science How serious is the problem?](https://reader035.fdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022081515/56816309550346895dd38860/html5/thumbnails/34.jpg)
Really painful steps
Electric cars ($600/mt)Cost twice as much
Poor performance (low range)Not much reduction with today’s grid
![Page 35: Climate Science How serious is the problem?](https://reader035.fdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022081515/56816309550346895dd38860/html5/thumbnails/35.jpg)
$/to
nne
of C
O2
CO2 reduction 0 100%
Carbon mitigation
$20
$200
EasyHard
Really painful
Electric cars
![Page 36: Climate Science How serious is the problem?](https://reader035.fdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022081515/56816309550346895dd38860/html5/thumbnails/36.jpg)
Solar ($700/mt)Cost 4-5X as much as natural gas
Low utilizationIntermittent
Really painful steps
![Page 37: Climate Science How serious is the problem?](https://reader035.fdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022081515/56816309550346895dd38860/html5/thumbnails/37.jpg)
$/to
nne
of C
O2
CO2 reduction 0 100%
Carbon mitigation
$20
$200
EasyHard
Really painful
Solar
![Page 38: Climate Science How serious is the problem?](https://reader035.fdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022081515/56816309550346895dd38860/html5/thumbnails/38.jpg)
Light rail ($10,000/mt)Huge capital cost
Low ridershipSome systems save no CO2!
Really painful steps
![Page 39: Climate Science How serious is the problem?](https://reader035.fdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022081515/56816309550346895dd38860/html5/thumbnails/39.jpg)
$/to
nne
of C
O2
CO2 reduction 0 100%
Carbon mitigation
$20
$200
EasyHard
Really painful
Light rail
![Page 40: Climate Science How serious is the problem?](https://reader035.fdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022081515/56816309550346895dd38860/html5/thumbnails/40.jpg)
Carbon capture and sequestration (?/mt)Unproven technology
Cost and performance unknown
Really painful steps
![Page 41: Climate Science How serious is the problem?](https://reader035.fdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022081515/56816309550346895dd38860/html5/thumbnails/41.jpg)
Impact of carbon taxes• US current emits ~5 billion metric tons of
CO2 annually
• A $20/mt tax = $100 billion per year $1,000 per household
• A $200/mt tax = $1 trillion per year $10,000 per household
• A $500/mt tax = $2.5 trillion per year $25,000 per household
![Page 42: Climate Science How serious is the problem?](https://reader035.fdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022081515/56816309550346895dd38860/html5/thumbnails/42.jpg)
Question:How much should we pay to insure
against an unknown risk?
![Page 43: Climate Science How serious is the problem?](https://reader035.fdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022081515/56816309550346895dd38860/html5/thumbnails/43.jpg)
Climate ChangeWhat should we do?
Bruce M. EverettJuly 15, 2014
![Page 44: Climate Science How serious is the problem?](https://reader035.fdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022081515/56816309550346895dd38860/html5/thumbnails/44.jpg)
Effective policies require:
• A clear understanding of the issue
• A pathway to a solution
![Page 45: Climate Science How serious is the problem?](https://reader035.fdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022081515/56816309550346895dd38860/html5/thumbnails/45.jpg)
D-Day (June 6, 1944)What does it take to win?
![Page 46: Climate Science How serious is the problem?](https://reader035.fdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022081515/56816309550346895dd38860/html5/thumbnails/46.jpg)
OECD Europe
US
Global CO2 Emissions from Energy1990 = 22 Billion tonnes
China
Source: Energy Information Administration
Rest of the World
![Page 47: Climate Science How serious is the problem?](https://reader035.fdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022081515/56816309550346895dd38860/html5/thumbnails/47.jpg)
OECD Europe
US
China
Global CO2 Emissions from Energy2013 = 33 Billion tonnes
Source: Energy Information Administration
Rest of the World
![Page 48: Climate Science How serious is the problem?](https://reader035.fdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022081515/56816309550346895dd38860/html5/thumbnails/48.jpg)
OECD Europe
US
China
Global CO2 Emissions from Energy2030 = 41 Billion tonnes
Source: Energy Information Administration
Rest of the World
![Page 49: Climate Science How serious is the problem?](https://reader035.fdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022081515/56816309550346895dd38860/html5/thumbnails/49.jpg)
UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) proposes:
• 40-70% reduction from 2010 levels by 2050
• 1.3% to 3.0% annual reductions
![Page 50: Climate Science How serious is the problem?](https://reader035.fdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022081515/56816309550346895dd38860/html5/thumbnails/50.jpg)
40% reduction case
![Page 51: Climate Science How serious is the problem?](https://reader035.fdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022081515/56816309550346895dd38860/html5/thumbnails/51.jpg)
President Obama’s Climate Plan (“War on Coal”) would reduce 2030 global emissions by ~1%.
A contribution of 3% of the IPCC requirement.
40% reduction case
US The US nuclear revival
![Page 52: Climate Science How serious is the problem?](https://reader035.fdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022081515/56816309550346895dd38860/html5/thumbnails/52.jpg)
The EU target for 2030 is a 40% reduction versus 1990 levels.
A contribution of 8% of the IPCC requirement.
40% reduction case
EU
![Page 53: Climate Science How serious is the problem?](https://reader035.fdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022081515/56816309550346895dd38860/html5/thumbnails/53.jpg)
China and Germany, in particular, have made the clean energy transition central to their overall economic development strategies.. “The Green Industrial Revolution
and the United States” Center for American Progress December, 2013
![Page 54: Climate Science How serious is the problem?](https://reader035.fdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022081515/56816309550346895dd38860/html5/thumbnails/54.jpg)
Germany – Electric Power Supply, 2013
Natural Gas (8%)
Nuclear (19%)
Wind (10%)
Solar (6%)Hydro (4%)
?
![Page 55: Climate Science How serious is the problem?](https://reader035.fdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022081515/56816309550346895dd38860/html5/thumbnails/55.jpg)
Germany – Electric Power Supply, 2013
Coal (53%)
Natural Gas (8%)
Nuclear (19%)
Wind (10%)
Solar (6%)Hydro (4%)
Wind +1.3 TWhSolar +1.8 TWhCoal +7.7 TWh
Growth 2013/2012Wind +1.3 TWhSolar +1.8 TWh
![Page 56: Climate Science How serious is the problem?](https://reader035.fdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022081515/56816309550346895dd38860/html5/thumbnails/56.jpg)
2013 Electric Power Supply, US vs Germany
Coal (53%)
Natural Gas (8%)
Nuclear(19%)
Wind (10%)
Solar (6%)Hydro (4%)
Coal (40%)
Natural Gas(28%)
Nuclear(20%)
Wind (4%)
Solar (<1%) Hydro (7%)
0.50 kg CO2/kWh 0.46 kg CO2/kWh
![Page 57: Climate Science How serious is the problem?](https://reader035.fdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022081515/56816309550346895dd38860/html5/thumbnails/57.jpg)
China’s CO2 emissions from coal in 2030(assuming no solar or wind)
12.1 billion mt CO2
Wind(5%)
Solar(3%)
GW 2013 2030Wind 92 400Solar 10 270
Projected growth
12.1 billion mt CO2 → 11.2 billion mt CO2
Equivalent to a 2% reduction in global carbon emissions
![Page 58: Climate Science How serious is the problem?](https://reader035.fdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022081515/56816309550346895dd38860/html5/thumbnails/58.jpg)
$/to
nne
of C
O2
CO2 reduction 0 100%
Carbon mitigation
$20
$200
EasyHard
Really painful
The European Trading System (ETS) has a
current price of ~$8/mt.
![Page 59: Climate Science How serious is the problem?](https://reader035.fdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022081515/56816309550346895dd38860/html5/thumbnails/59.jpg)
$/to
nne
of C
O2
CO2 reduction 0 100%
Carbon mitigation
$20
$200
EasyHard
Really painful
The US Regional Greenhouse Gas Initiative
(RGGI) has a current price of ~$5/mt.
![Page 60: Climate Science How serious is the problem?](https://reader035.fdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022081515/56816309550346895dd38860/html5/thumbnails/60.jpg)
If you believe there is a problem, show us a solution!