Climate Risk ManagementLinking disaster risk reduction (DRR) and climate

change adaptation (CCA) in practice

Thomas Schinko, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA)

Markus Leitner, Environment Agency Austria (EAA)

PLACARD Workshop, 24/10/2017, Brussels

Outline

1 The global picture – a changing world

2 Policy response: Climate risk management

3 Insights from Austria

2

A changing world – widespread observed impacts

“Some of the changes in extreme weather and climate events observed since about 1950 have been linked to human influence” (IPCC, 2013)

A novel perspective: Climate related risk

Source: IPCC, 2014

Source: https://www.carbonbrief.org/mapped-how-climate-change-affects-extreme-weather-around-the-world

Attributing extreme weather to climate change

Increasing risk of weather-related hazards to the European population

Source: Forzieri et al. (2017)

Outline

1 The global picture – a changing world

2 Policy response: Climate risk management

3 Insights from Austria

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Yokohama 1994 Sendai, Paris &SDG accords 2015

ActionKnowledge

Kobe 2005

Disasters as acts of God

Supporting transitions on

‘unnatural’ disaster risk

Fostering integrated risk management

transitions

Aligning risk from climate

variability and change

Climate risk science for the

post-2015 agenda

Climate risk & development,

limits, opportunity

Development of science & policy debate

4

2015

The adaptation space & gap

Unavoidable impacts

Unavoided but avoidable impacts

Adapted from Chambwera et al. (2014) – WGIIAR5, Chapter 17

Avoided impacts

Climate risk management

Chris Field, co-chair IPCC working group II

Climate change is a threat multiplier that adds new dimensions and complexity to the developmentchallenges we’re already facing.

Fundamentally, the challenge of managing climate change is a challenge of managing and reducing risk.

Climate Risk Management

Gradual effects ofclimate change

e.g. glacier melt, sealevel rise

No climate-related challenges

e.g earthquakes, volcanic erruption

Joint challengesChanges in climate-

related risks, e.g. floods, droughts, landslides, storms

Climate Change Adaptation

Disaster Risk Management

Socioeconomicdevelopment

Outline

1 The global picture – a changing world

2 Policy response: Climate risk management

3 Insights from Austria

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Insights from Austria: PACINAS projectStatus quo

• Current DRR practice in Austria is mainly focusing on existing adaptation deficit

• No forward looking approach (changing future risks)

• Climate change considerations not explicitly included in planning

• Lack of scientific evidence: CC extreme floods damages

• High uncertainties of regional climate models

• Constant integration of new information

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Disaster Risk Reduction as earlyadaptation: a role for iterative CRM?

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Figure: Iterative climate risk management framework for adaptation; Source: Watkiss et al. (2012)

Insights from Austria: PACINAS Conceptualizing CRM

(1)Monitoring

(2)Climate risk

analysis

(3)Evaluation

Fiscal stress testing according

to risk layers

- Climate signal- Hazards- Loss database- Instruments

Climate risk modeling:New normal - new

hazard & socio-economic thresholds

Building blocks- Risk prevention- Risk financing- Risk budgeting

(4)Implementation

Reacting

Reframing

Transforming

Source: Schinko et al. (2016)

Towards iterative climate risk management in Austria

• Inclusive process with national-level institutions

• Water, flood-risk and civil protection authorities

• Environment Agency Austria (EAA)

• Ministries of Finance, Environment and Interior Affairs

• Gaps remain in terms of operationalizing CRM with applicable methods and tools for specific risks and decision-contexts

• Linking CCA and DRM started to happen at national policy level (NAS, NAP, NRA) but not yet happening on regional, local and operational level

Responsibility and Risk: Operationalizing comprehensive climate risklayering in Austria among multiple actors

0.26

0.35

0.51

0.290.32

0.37

2015 2030 2050

Loss

es

(bn E

uro

s 2015)

AAL disaster fund deposits

-

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

2015 2030 2050

Loss

es

(bn E

uro

s 2015)

100 250 500 1000

Risk prevention

Insurance

Absorption

Monitoring

Climate risk analysis

Evaluation

Implementation

Transformation

Continuation

Monitoring

Climate risk analysis

Evaluation

Implementation

Transformation

Continuation

(a)

Iterative CRM and risk layering

Source: Schinko et al. (2016)

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Thank you for your attention.

schinko@iiasa.ac.at

RESPECT project information and updates:respectproject.net

Open Access publication in

Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change:http://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s11027-016-9713-0

Discussion questions

• What can we learn from ongoing processes?• What learning processes are needed to harvest CCA &

DRR synergies up to 2030 and beyond?• What are the key actors that have to get involved to

operationalize CRM?• How can responsibilities be distributed in a just and

efficient manner?• How can a more pro-active, forward looking approach

to CRM be achieved?• What do we envision in terms of the role of CCA & DRR

in addressing societal development challenges in 2030?

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