Appendix 13-1

Climate Risk and Vulnerability Assessment

June 2019

India: Rajasthan State Highway Investment Program (Tranche 2) Prepared by Public Works Department, Government of Rajasthan for the Asian Development Bank.

CLIMATE RISK AND VULNERABILITY ASSESSMENT (CRVA) Project:

ADB-P-49228-003-IND: Rajasthan State Highway Investment

Program (RSHIP-Tranche-II)

26 March 2019

TABLE OF CONTENTS

Chapter Content Page No. 1 Introduction 1 1.1 Background 1 1.2 Sector Climate Risk and Vulnerability 2 1.3 Institutional, Regulatory, Legal and Policy Frameworks of Rajasthan 3 2 Project Description 5 2.1 Project Area Physiography 5 2.2 The Tranche-II Project Roads 6 2.3 Climate Risk and Vulnerability Assessment (CRVA) – The Rationale 8 2.4 Scope, Methodology and Limitations 9 2.4.1 Scope 9 2.4.2 Methodology 9 2.4.3 Limitations 10 2.5 Data Inventory and Collection 10 3 Climate and Climate Change in the Project Area 11 3.1 The Baseline Climate 11 3.2 Observed Climate Trends 12 3.2.1 Mean Temperature and Rainfall Trends 12 3.2.2 Trends in Extreme Events 13 3.3 Future Climate Projections 13 4 Climate Risk and Vulnerability Assessment 15 4.1 Hazard Characterization 15 4.2 Exposure and Sensitivity 16 4.2.1 Exposure to Extreme Heat 16 4.2.2 Exposure to River Flooding 16 4.2.3 Exposure to Urban Flooding 17 4.3 Vulnerability and Adaptive Responses 18 4.3.1 Temperature and Asphalt Pavement 18 4.3.2 Flooding and Drainage Improvement 18 5 Proposed Adaptation Actions and Costs 20 5.1 Proposed Adaptation Measures 20 5.1.1 Short Term Measures 20 5.1.2 Long Term Measures 20 5.2 Costs of Incremental Adaptation Measures 21 6 Conclusion 24 Appendix – I: Glossary of Terms and Terminologies 25 Appendix –II: (Hyperlinks to Excel Files on) Tranche-II Project Costs of

CC Adaptation 26

Bibliography 26

List of Tables Page No

Table 1.1 List of Tranche-II Roads, Rajasthan 1 Table 1.2 Generic Impacts on Roads by Climate Sensitive Hazards 3 Table 2.1 Brief Descriptions of Physiographic Divisions of Rajasthan

and Location of Tranche-II Roads by Districts 5

Table 2.2 Characteristics of Tranche-II Roads 6 Table 4.1 Climate Induced Hazard Profiles of Tranche-II Roads 15 Table 4.2 Recommended Bitumen Grades by Temperature 18 Table 5.1 Cost Overview with Climate Change Considerations for

Rajasthan Tranche-II Project Roads

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List of Figures Page No

Figure 1.1 Institutional Arrangement for RSAPCC 4 Figure 4.1 Flood Prone Areas of Rajasthan 17 Figure 5.1 Total Civil Cost = BAU Cost + CC Incremental Cost 22 Figure 5.2 CC Adaptation Cost vs. BAU Cost 22 Figure 5.3 Break-Up of CC Incremental Costs 22

1. Introduction 1.1 Background 1. Rajasthan is India’s largest State and covers about 10% (342,239 sq. km) of total area of the country. It has a population of about 68.6 million which represents about 5% of the total population of India. In terms of road transport network, the State of Rajasthan has a total road network of 193,017 km including 7,260 km of national highways, 10,953 km of state highways, and 9,900 km of major district roads (MDRs), 25,033 km of other district roads, and 139,871 km of village /rural roads. The road density in Rajasthan is about 60 km per 100 square km (sq.km), which is slightly below the national average of 110. Nearly 80% of the total roads are of single lane configuration. Years of under-investment due to paucity of financial resources and inadequate maintenance has left many of the state highways and MDRs in poor condition in terms of ride quality, geometry, pavement strength, drainage, and safety standards thus constraining the State’s goal of all-inclusive growth. 2. To improve the core road network comprising of state highways and MDRs, the State Government has initiated the Rajasthan State Highways Development Program (RSHDP) that aims at improving some 20,000 km of state highways and MDRs in a phase-wise manner. The Government of Rajasthan (GoR) has requested the Asian Development Bank (ADB) to consider a multi-tranche financing facility (MFF) of $500 million to finance part of the RSHDP. The MFF lends support to road improvement contracts under Build Operate and Transfer (BOT) financing models through public private partnership (PPP) annuity and engineering procurement and construction (EPC) modalities. The earlier Tranche I comprised of 16 roads totaling 979.7 km grouped under 4 contract packages in the State of Rajasthan. 3. Tranche-II of the MFF intends to upgrade about 754 km of roads dispersed in 11 roadways of the State, with some salient details as given in Table 1.1.

Table 1.1 List of Tranche-II Roads, Rajasthan

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4. From Table 1.1, it can be seen that there are 6 roadways budgeted under EPC model, and 5 under PPP annuity model. The total lengths of roads to be improved are set aside into 6 packages, 4 packages under EPC model that covers 474 km of road in terms of total length and 2 packages under PPP model that covers the remaining 289 km of road. The total estimated cost of civil works for the 11 packages of Tranche-II road development project is Rs. 16,270.90 million and taking into other miscellaneous and administrative costs, the grand total cost for Tranche-II is estimated to be about Rs. 18,662.4 million. 1.2 Sector Climate Risk and Vulnerability 5. Scientific evidence shows that the warming of the global climate system is unequivocal: global average temperatures are higher than they were in past centuries and they continue to increase. As a result, seas and oceans are warming, polar ice caps are melting, sea levels are rising, and there are more varied and extreme weather patterns. In general, temperatures will be on average higher, there will be more incidents of record hot weather, precipitation levels and flooding risk will be higher, and there will be more frequent and more severe extreme weather events. 6. Depending on future global warming and the region of Rajasthan in India, transport modes and system components could be affected by one or several simultaneous changes in climate conditions, including hotter summers, extreme precipitation events and increased flooding. If such impacts are not anticipated in future transport infrastructure design and maintenance, those changing weather conditions could, in some areas of Rajasthan, accelerate their deterioration, increase severe damages risks, traffic interruption and accidents which could, on their turn, adversely affect economic activities of the State. 7. Climate vulnerability has been traditionally understood in terms of a relationship between exposure, sensitivity and adaptive capacity. Climate change vulnerability levels are influenced by variables such as geographic location, the local environment and the ability of local authorities to both respond to events and adapt their assets in advance. The vulnerability of road infrastructure to climate change would depend on factors such as pavement type and condition and also on location-specific factors such as geology, traffic flow, and proximity to water courses. Climate change induced deterioration is expected to create more severe damage through increased frequency of extreme events thus creating the demand for more routine and structural maintenance. 8. In terms of road infrastructure in the State of Rajasthan, higher summer temperatures and prolonged periods of heat waves pose the potential to increase damages to road pavements and affect the structural integrity of bridges. Although Rajasthan State is characterized for the most parts a desert or arid region, yet intense rainstorms are not uncommon. Such may cause the capacities of drainage structures and tunnels as well as bridges to be exceeded. Increasing rainfall is expected to raise water levels and groundwater levels, which is likely to make road infrastructure less stable and increase the risk of damage to embankment earthworks. 9. Some of the generic impacts by natural hazards / climatic stressors on roadways infrastructure are compiled in Table 1.2, but given a wide range of primary climate drivers, only those variables deemed important or relevant to roads are identified here. All listed factors/events are expected to occur more often and their impacts will be more severe according to existing climate models.

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Table 1.2 Generic Impacts on Roads by Climate Sensitive Hazards

Factor Effect Impact on Roads / Assets 1. Temperature change of distribution patterns, higher average and maximum temperature

1.1 High Temperatures and Heat Waves

overheating

Rutting and Surface Cracking of Highway Pavements

1.2 Sudden temperature changes

Tension

1.3 Intense solar radiation Overheating 2. Precipitation change of distribution patterns, more extreme events

2.1 Intense Rainfall Soil erosion, landslides, flooding

Damage to earthworks, embankments, drainage systems

2.2 Extended rain periods Slower drainage, soil erosion

Impacts infrastructure assets and operation

2.3 Flooding: coastal, surface water, fluvial

Landslides, flooding Drainage systems, tunnels, bridges

2.4 Drought Desiccation Earthworks desiccation 3. Wind change of distribution patterns, more extreme events

3.1 Storm / gale (inland) Higher wind forces, uprooting of trees

damage to installations, restrictions/disruption of road transport operation

1.3 Institutional, Regulatory, Legal and Policy Frameworks of Rajasthan 10. In 2010, the Rajasthan State Government established a ‘Climate Change and Clean Development Mechanism Cell’ in the Rajasthan State Pollution Control Board (RSPCB) to act as a nodal agency for coordinating issues related to climate change in the State. The Rajasthan State Action Plan on Climate Change (RSAPCC1, 2010) was developed to provide important pointers on priority intervention areas for climate adaptation in various key sectors of the State Government such as (a) water resources, (b) agriculture and animal husbandry, (c) human health, (d) forest and biodiversity, (e) energy, and (f) governance and sustainable habitat. 11. The RSAPCC builds on key areas as identified under climate change agenda for Rajasthan by prioritizing urgent areas of action in a phased and time-bound manner and in coherence with the Rajasthan State Environment Policy and Environment Mission. The RSAPCC primarily focuses on risk reduction and adaptation measures; it also looks into the co-benefits offered by specific strategies in the form of mitigation. 12. The institutional structure for the implementation of the RSAPCC lies under the chairmanship of the Chief Minister under whom a Steering Committee functions with responsibility of upholding climate change policies and related issues. The nodal department for overseeing all related activities to the RSAPCC is the Climate Change (CC) and Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) Cell headed by a Principal Secretary that guides the sectoral task forces as shown in Figure 1.1. The responsibility to implementation of the RSAPCC lies with the respective state departments and the monitoring of implementation rests with the the Rajasthan Environment Mission and Steering Committee of the Environment Mission. While state departments are responsible for implementation of targets, these will be reported to the Climate CC and CDM Cell and presented to the Steering Committee during meetings of the Environment Mission.

1 Rajasthan State Action Plan on Climate Change, RSAPCC. http://www.indiaenvironmentportal.org.in/files/file/ClimateChange-

rajasthan.PDF.

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Figure 1.1 Institutional Arrangement for RSAPCC

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2. Project Description 2.1 Project Area Physiography 13. From a practical perspective, knowing whether the location of the project road presents a high level of risk to disruption due to future climate change is an important part of adaptation decision. For existing infrastructure, identifying high risk assets or locations provides the advantage to make some sense of whether additional funds should be spent to lower future climate change-related risk during the reconstruction or rehabilitation phase of activities. This calls for an understanding the physiographic features in where the roads are located and then followed an engineering assessment of critical assets that might be vulnerable to climate stressors. In terms of physiography, the State of Rajasthan is divided into four distinct physiographic divisions2, namely, (a) Western Desert Plains (Thar Desert), (b) Aravalli Range, (c) Eastern Plains, and (d) South Eastern Plateau (Hadoti Region). Table 2.1 below presents in brief the physiographic attributes of Rajasthan and the location of Tranche-II roads by districts and by physiographic regions.

Table 2.1 Brief Descriptions of Physiographic Divisions of Rajasthan and Location of Tranche-II Roads by Districts

(a) Western Desert Plains

• Region includes the Thar desert and areas west of Aravalli range; Thar desert consists of aeolian (wind-deposited) sands that has accumulated over a million years ago, and presents undulating surface with high and low dunes separated by sandy plains and low barren hills that rise abruptly from the surrounding plains.

• Rainfall is generally low ranging from 100 mm or less in the west to about 500 mm in the east. About 90% of the total annual rainfall occurs during southwest monsoon, from July to September

• During other seasons the prevailing wind is the dry northeast monsoon. May and June are the hottest months of the year, with temperatures rising to 50 °C. During January, the coldest month, the mean minimum temperature ranges between 5 and 10 °C

(b) Aravalli Range

• The Aravalli runs across the State in a SW to NE direction and is composed of highly denuded and folded terrain with an average altitude of 930m amsl.

• This region has an arid and dry climate. The annual total rainfall ranges from 500 mm to 900 mm and the maximum daytime temperature during the summer varies between 40 and 46 °C whilst during winter, its ranges between 1.5 and 4 °C.

• Three major rivers and their tributaries flow from the Aravalli, namely Chambal and Sahibi rivers which are tributaries of Yamuna, as well as Luni river which flows into the Rann of Kutch.

(c) Eastern Plains

• This physiographic zone consists of: (i) Alluvial plain of Luni Basin, (ii) Semi-Arid Eastern Plain, and (iii) Flood Prone Eastern Plain.

• The flood prone eastern plain covers the districts of Alwar, Bharatpur and Dholpur. The annual total rainfall in the

2 https://www.ras-exam.com/demo/misc/physiography-rajasthan/

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(a) Districts in Western Desert Plains where Tranche-II Roads Located: (1) Shri Ganganagar, (2) Hanumangarh, (3) Bikaner, (4) Churu, (5) Sikar, (6) Nagaur , (7) Jodhpur, (8) Pali, (9) Barmer , and (10) Jalore (b) Districts in Aravalli Range where Tranche-II Roads Located: (1) Ajmer, and (2) Sikar (c) Districts in Eastern Plains where Tranche-II Roads Located: (1) Tonk

Eastern Plains ranges from 600mm to 700mm, and is drained by the Luni river and its tributaries.

(d) South Eastern Plateau

• The region comprises of the eastern & southeastern part of the state

14. The Tranche-II project roads are spread across 13 districts of Rajasthan, 10 of which are situated fully in the Western desert plains, 2 districts in the Aravalli Range with one (Sikar) partially in the Western desert, and a single district (Tonk) in the Eastern Plains. 2.2 The Tranche-II Project Roads 15. Observations of the existing status and condition of the Tranche-II project roads are documented in the Initial Environmental Examination (IEE) Report3 pertaining to the project, and some noteworthy observations are reproduced as under: “Existing roads under Tranche-II have varying width and road conditions. ROW4 is generally 20-30m in most cases with reduced width in settlements varying from 9 to 12 m except in Sarwar (5m). Major part is 2-lane with or without earthen shoulder. Riding condition is mostly poor to fair. Roadside drains are present in some urban stretches but mostly choked and non-functional. Overtopping of roads is not observed in general but water-logging is very common in built-up areas. Waterways are being crossed only in few roads. Major bridges are present only on 5 roads, while roads have minor bridges, Bhinmal – Pantheri Posana – Jeevana road have few cross drainage structures. Most of the roads have inadequate road safety provisions. Horizontal and vertical profile are incoherent to applicable codal provisions. Horizontal curve is mostly insufficient in built-up areas. Vertical curves are deficient to severely deficient throughout the stretches of all sub-projects roads. This is due to the fact that roads are constructed on stabilized sand dunes which normally follow its undulating topography.” 16. Concomitantly, the Government of Rajasthan has conducted Final Feasibility5 assessments for each of the Tranche-II project roads and a few of the salient features are extracted in Table 2.2 below.

Table 2.2 Characteristics of Tranche-II Roads # Tranche –II

Projects Salient Features (as noted in the Feasibility Reports)

1

Jodhpur- Sojat Road (SH-58 ,H-II) Package 15

Length 75.7 km

▪ This project road passes through two districts of Jodhpur and Pali. ▪ The road alignment crosses the River Luni, ▪ The entire stretch lies in flat terrain in the Western Desert Plains ▪ The existing bituminous road pavement is stated to be in poor (25%) to fair

(34%) condition. ▪ Land use along the road corridor is mainly agricultural.

2

Bhinmal – Pantheri

Posana – Jeevana

(MDR-169 ,H-V)

▪ This project road lies in Barmer and Jalore districts ▪ The entire stretch lies in the Western Desert Plains of Rajasthan.

3 Initial Environmental Examination, IND: Rajasthan State Highway Investment Program, Prepared by PPP Division,

Public Works Department, and Government of Rajasthan for the Asian Development Bank; Feb 2018. 4 ROW = Right of Way. 5 Final Feasibility Reports, Tranche-II Roads

https://www.dropbox.com/sh/k99p4al5cedcigs/AADd2KiVHKx_yEinZCuJpQTEa?dl=0

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Package 22

Length 51.58 km

▪ The existing road is an intermix of intermediate lane (5.5m width) in about 21 km with small stretches of single lane (3.70m) carriageway in between and single lane width in remaining 34 Km.

▪ The condition of the pavement varies from good (60%) to fair (40%). ▪ The vertical alignment is noted as generally smooth with embankment

heights varying from 0.5m to 1.5m. ▪ In terms of cross-drainages, there exist 7 pipe culverts, 3 slab culverts, and

16 causeways in the entire stretch.

3

Bidasar-Sri

Dungargarh-Kalu

(MDR-38 ,H-III)

Package 21

Length 82.2 km

▪ The project road traverses through plain, rolling and hilly terrain of the Western Desert Plains.

▪ The land use along the road corridor is predominantly barren. ▪ The entire road length has bituminous surface where 89% of road length is in

fair condition and 11% in poor condition. ▪ The road is a 2 lane wide carriageway for about 42Km (51%) length,

intermediate lane for 12 Km (14%) and balance 28.0Km (35%) length has carriageway width of 3.0-4.0m

▪ There are no channelized regular longitudinal drains in most part of the project section. There are 9 culverts along the project road but no major or minor bridges.

4

Sadulshahar-Sangaria -

Chaiya

(SH-76, H-II), Package

21, Length 95.3 km

▪ Project road located in the districts of Hanumangarh and Sriganganagar, both in the Western desert plains

▪ The land use along the project road predominantly agriculture interspersed with built-up section.

▪ project road has about 96% intermediate lane, 2% two lane and balance 2% of length has more than 2-Lane configurations.

▪ Bituminous pavement: 54% in good condition, 31% in fair condition except isolated patches of failed sections and about 15% of the length is in poor condition.

▪ Two major bridges and four minor bridge along the project road;

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Losal-Salasar-

Ratangarh (SH-07, H-

II),

Package 11

Length 78.6 km

▪ The project road passes through plain and rolling terrains in Sikar and Churu districts

▪ The existing road reveals that the road stretch comprises of single carriageway of 3.5m width for 14.8 km (18.5%), intermediate carriageway of 5.5m width for 38.4 km (45.5%), and two lane configurations with 7m width for 28.7km (35.7%).

▪ The entire project road stretch is of flexible pavement except some stretches in habitation area where pavement is rigid.

▪ The defects noticed are cracking, rutting, and edge breaking. ▪ The average height of embankment varies from ground level to about 0.1m

to 1.5 m. ▪ The road side drainages are observed to be inadequate.

6

Siwana –Samdari-

Balesar (SH-

66;Highway-II ),

Package 6,

Length 90.65 km

▪ Project road located in the districts of Jodhpur and Barmer, both in the Western desert plains

▪ About 36 to 40% of length land along the project road is agricultural, followed by barren land, about 51-53%, built-up areas are about 10-11%.

▪ Present road is single lane from km 0.00 to km 26.00, km 26.00 to km 30.9 is intermediate lane and km 30.9 to km 90.00 is again single lane.

▪ In total 5 slab culverts, 27 pipe culverts and 53 causeways are found along the project highway; structural condition of most of the culverts is generally fair to poor

▪ no major bridge / minor bridges along the project corridor

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Beawar-Masuda-Goyla

(MDR-57;H-II ),

Package 23,

Length 67 km

▪ The project road lies in Ajmer district. ▪ The land use along the project road is predominantly agriculture intersperse

with built-up section. ▪ Available width of road land along the project corridor in built-up areas varies

between 8m and 25m. ▪ The existing pavement for the most of the stretch is of bituminous or flexible

surface, except at few stretches in built up/settlement/villages. ▪ There are a total 70 nos. of culverts along the project corridor.

8 Arain-Sarwar

(SH-7E; H-IV),

▪ The project road lies in the districts of Ajmer and Tonk. ▪ The existing road consists of 3.5m width single carriageway for 7.5 km, 5.5m

intermediate carriageway for 35km, and 7.0m carriageway for about 2km.

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Package 12,

Length 44.26 km

▪ The entire length of the road has bituminous surface and where 35% of project road length is in good condition, 48% in fair condition and 17 % in poor condition.

▪ There are 44 slab & 35 pipe culverts, but no bridges except for a single minor bridge in its entire length.

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NH 12-Laxmipura-

Dora-Dabi-Ranaji ka

Gudha

Package 2,

Length 48.5 km

▪ Located in Eastern Plains of Bundi district ▪ Road exhibits pavement widths varying from 3.0m to 7.0m. ▪ Land use pattern along the project corridor is mainly agricultural, interlaced

by open land/mining areas. ▪ There are 5 vented causeways and 4 flush causeways (submersible

structures) along the road and further 3 submersible minor bridges were also observed along the project road.

▪ In total there are 75 culverts and 8 minor bridges.

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Nasirabad –Mangaliyawas-

Padukalan

(MDR-39;H-IV

Package 4,

Length 62.96 km

▪ Located in Ajmer and Nagaur districts ▪ The road alignment traverses numerous small rivers and water bodies. The

main river in the area is Luni river which crosses the road at two locations. ▪ The general condition of the road is poor except at a few small stretches

where the condition is good, often due to recent repairs and resurfacing. ▪ Ravelling of the existing bituminous pavement in varying degrees has been

identified as the most prominent distress coupled with significant loss of material from the non-bituminous layers underneath.

▪ Longitudinal drains have been observed in built-up areas but at many locations, the drains are observed to be silted and choked creating difficulty in drainage during rainy seasons.

11

Beawar–Pisangan,

Tehla -kod- Alniyawas

(SH-59,VR-64;-H -III),

Package 12,

Length 56.7 km

▪ Located in Ajmer and Nagaur districts ▪ The existing road stretch comprises of single carriageway of 3.5m width for

42.8 km (75%), intermediate carriageway of 5.5m width for 4.1 km (7%), and two lane configuration with 7m width for 10.17km (18%).

▪ The entire length of the road has bituminous surface where 63.92% of project road length is in good condition, 25.22% in fair condition and 10.87 % in poor condition.

▪ All along there are 24 slab culverts, 4 causeways but no bridges.

2.3 Climate Risk and Vulnerability Assessment (CRVA) – The Rationale 17. Since 2010, the ADB has defined its priorities for action that include assisting developing member countries (DMCs) in climate-proofing of projects to ensure their outcomes are not compromised by climate change and variability or by natural hazards in general. As such, a climate risk management approach has been adopted by ADB in an increasing significant number of investment projects. The ADB recognizes that development is about lasting benefits and hence a CRVA is needed to be undertaken during the project preparation phase to examine climate change events and risks and where appropriate the technical and economic feasibility of adaptation measures are examined. Based on the level of climate change risks for the project and the adaptation measures incorporated in the project design, the associated climate change adaptation costs are determined. In essence, the CRVA is a collaborative process aimed at informing project teams and stakeholders about future climate risks that can affect the performance of an investment project. 18. The ADB has also institutionalized a Framework6 in response to the mandated requirement that exposure and vulnerability to climate change risks be identified and accounted for in the preparation of investment projects. The framework encourages a sequential process to assess climate change vulnerability and impacts, and to identify adaptation needs and options. The various terms and terminologies used in vulnerability assessments are defined and presented in Appendix-I of this report.

6 Climate Proofing ADB Investment in the Transport Sector, Initial Experience, Asian Development Bank (ADB 2014);

https://www.adb.org/sites/default/files/publication/152434/climate-proofing-adb-investment-transport.pdf.

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19. A preliminary climate risk screening identifying project roads that may be at risk has been undertaken at the project concept stage by the ADB Project Team and its findings are presented in Chapter VI of the initial environmental examination [9]. The Chapter presents recent decadal trends of extreme climatic events and model projections of future climate based on IPCC SRES7 scenarios A2 and B2. Based on findings given in the few published literature specific to the State of Rajasthan, an initial assessment of the level of sensitivity of the project roads to climate variables such as temperature, and rainfall quantity and temporal distribution suggest the project roads to be of medium risk. As such a CRVA is required to be undertaken followed by development of adaptation measures to be incorporated in the project detailed design. 2.4 Scope, Methodology and Limitations 2.4.1 Scope

20. The broad objectives of the CRVA usually are: (a) assessment of exposure, sensitivity, and adaptive capacity of the project roads to climate risks and, (b) examine climate-risk adaptive interventions to build resilience. The scope of this report thus lies in the assessment of climate related natural hazards and associated risks and vulnerabilities of Tranche-II project roads of Rajasthan. This report will deal in part as brief narrative descriptions with regards to objective (a), whilst the main focus of this CRVA lies in dealing with objective (b) which is to narrow down the deliberations to climate change adaptive measures envisaged for the project roads as proposed in the Final Feasibility Reports (FFRs [5]) and disclose their associated incremental costs. 2.4.2 Methodology 21. By Table 2.1, the 11 Tranche-II project roads are seen to be widely dispersed across 13 districts of Rajasthan. Save for 2 districts that are located in the Aravalli range and 1 district in the Eastern Plains, the majority of project roads are all located in the Western Desert Plains. As data and information are essential inputs to climate-resilient development, the CRVA methodology adopted here comprises of the following: (a) Desk Reviews: Desk reviews are a starter to go forward with many of the questions in vulnerability assessment and adaptation related to development of road infrastructures where others have already explored those questions. There are a few literatures on climate change specific to the State of Rajasthan, and besides that the desk resources available at the moment for the Tranche-II project roads include the following:

(i) Initial Environmental Examination (IEE) Report [3], and (ii) Final Feasibility Reports (FFRs) for each of the Tranche-II Roads [5]

(b) Consultations with Stakeholders and Experts: A broad representative consultation will ensure a wide range of perspectives on climate change and vulnerabilities. The stakeholders usually possess first-hand knowledge about the extent to which climate stressors affect or can affect the project. Experts can provide substantive information and analysis for vulnerabilities whilst engineers will be able to provide information or analysis related to sensitivity, including design and construction standards relevant to climate impacts, and adaptive capacity information. More often than not, a desk review followed by expert consultation is all that it takes to select adaptation priorities for the project.

7 Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) is a report by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change

(IPCC) that was published in 2000.

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2.4.3 Limitations 22. As climate factors manifest their effects in a multitude of ways, there will certainly be a large number of important qualification and limitation issues in relation to the presentation of this vulnerability assessment and the application of adaptation strategies. It must however be noted that at present there is no clear and universally adopted methodology to model the adverse effects of climate change and its integration in infrastructure design procedures. 23. Much of the constraints in this CRVA report were those arising from the proposed methodology which in a way impact or influence the application or interpretation of the information available in the reference materials pertaining to the project. 2.5 Data Inventory and Collection 24. Data and information are an essential input to climate-resilient development. The desk review as noted earlier can help unfold a wide variety of useful theoretical and methodological information and data and such include: (a) Web-Available Literature on:

(i) Climate data, including downscaled projections from climate models that were generated for other assessments (ii) Vulnerability assessments that have been done for a given area or sector, including national reports on climate change (iii) Climate-related analyses done for roads sector in the country or region, including project documents for climate adaptation projects

(b) Desk Reviews of Done Studies: (i) Observations of risks and vulnerabilities and recommendations for the project roads as given in the IEE report (ii) Engineering upgrade responses and cost estimates as prepared in the FFRs of the project roads. As such this CRVA has placed great reliance on expert judgments and assessments of adaptation responses to climate change as conceived in the FFRs of the project roads.

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3. Climate and Climate Change in the Project Area 25. Rajasthan state is situated between 230 30' – 300 11' N and 690 29'- 780 17' E at the northwestern region of India, covering an area of 342,239 km2 (10.4% of the country). The climate of Rajasthan is generally arid or semi-arid and features fairly hot temperatures over the year with extreme temperatures in both summer and winter. In general, the greater part of Rajasthan falls under hot desert and the remaining part of the State falls under hot semi-arid type of climate characterized by low and variable rainfalls. 3.1 The Baseline Climate8 26. Temperature: The State of Rajasthan has distinct temperature range variations (diurnal and seasonal) throughout the state. The summer season begins in the month of March and the temperature keeps rising progressively through April, May and June. The maximum daily temperature hovers around 40°C to 45°C in the regions of Bikaner, Phalodi, Jaisalmer and Barmer. Frequently, the temperature soars to as high as 49°C during the summer months. Nights of summers see a considerable temperature fall with a minimum daily temperature around 20°C to 29°C. The regions of Udaipur and Mount Abu have a pleasanter summer with relatively lower daily maximum temperature that varies around 38°C and 39.5°C. The major portion of the state in the arid west and the semi-arid regions has an average maximum of 45°C during summer. 27. January is the coldest month in the state of Rajasthan. The minimum temperatures sometimes drop to -2°C in the night at places like Sikar, Churu, Pilani and Bikaner. The sandy land gets even colder with occasional secondary Western winds that cross the western, northern and eastern Rajasthan during winter months, and even cause light rainfall and chilly winds. Most regions of Rajasthan, except the southeast Rajasthan comprising of Kota, Bundi and Baran and western Barmer experience an average temperature of around 10°C during the cold season. Due to the cold western winds, the whole of Rajasthan sometimes come under the spell of the cold wave for 2 to 5 days during winters. 28. Rainfall: The principal rainy season when Rajasthan State receives 91% of its annual rain is during the south-west monsoon. The southwest monsoon begins in the last week of June and lasts till mid-September. The annual rainfall in the state differs significantly due to physiographic variations. The average annual rainfall ranges from less than 100 mm in north-west part of Jaisalmer region (lowest in the state), to 200 to 300 mm in the regions of Ganganagar, Bikaner and Barmer, 300 to 400 mm in the regions of Nagaur, Jodhpur, Churu and Jalor and more than 400 mm in the regions of Sikar, Jhunjhunu, Pali and the western fringes of the Aravalli range. Ajmer and Jhalawar in the eastern side of the Aravalli Range receive about 550 mm and 1020 mm rainfall respectively. Mount Abu in the Sirohi district in the southwest region receives the highest rainfall in the state (1638 mm). Winters also receive a little rainfall with the passing of western disturbances over the region. Overall, Rajasthan receives most of its monthly rainfall during July and August. 29. Droughts: Droughts are rampant in Rajasthan. Even the Southern districts of Rajasthan that receive on average higher rainfall than the rest of the State have experienced large number of severe droughts in the past. The occurrence of severe and very severe droughts is high over the Western Rajasthan region.

8 Rajasthan State Action Plan on Climate Change, RSAPCC, 2010, Government of Rajasthan.

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3.2 Observed Climate Trends 30. It must be noted that climate change studies in Rajasthan are very few. The following brief paragraphs on spatial - temporal variation of seasonal maximum, minimum temperatures and rainfall conditions are derived from a few available sources. 3.2.1 Mean Temperature and Rainfall Trends 31. A 2013 Indian Met Department (IMD) publication9 on ‘State Level Climate Change Trends in India’ presents climatic trends based on long term recent data series (1951-2010) of well distributed 282 stations for temperatures and 1451 stations for rainfall in India, with a view to provide insight into climate change occurring over India and to assist the Indian States in the formulation of adaptation and mitigation strategies in light of changing climate. In terms of summer (the hottest season of Rajasthan) mean maximum temperature trend, the Rajasthan State averaged temperature trend is observed to be +0.020C/year. For the winter season too, the trend in mean minimum temperature trend is observed to +0.020C/year. Overall the annual mean temperature is observed to increasing at +0.010C/year at 95% level of significance. 32. In terms of observed rainfall over the observed period, the State averaged monsoon rainfall is seen decreasing at -0.09 mm/year whilst the summer rainfall is seen to be increasing at +0.17 mm/year. Overall the mean annual rainfall in the State is seen increasing at +0.04 mm/year at 95% level of significance. 33. An analysis of observed trends by another study10 finds that during the pre monsoon months, entire Rajasthan has experienced a rising trend in maximum temperature as well as minimum temperature. The level of significance of the trend is above 90%. The western side of Aravalli ranges has experienced a rather steeper temperature rise than the eastern half. During monsoon months, none of the districts have experienced significant rising trends in maximum and minimum temperatures. During the post monsoon months and within the last century, most parts of Rajasthan are seen to have experienced an increasing trend in maximum temperature conditions except for Jaipur and Jodhpur. Jhunjhunu, Alwar, Sikar and Dausa have observed a rise in maximum temperatures, but the confidence level of such a trend is low. 34. During pre monsoon months the districts of Banswara, Dungarpur, Udaipur, Rajsamand and Sirohi are seen to have declining rainfall at 80-90% confidence level. All the eastern districts and only Jhunjhunu in the north have experienced a considerable rise in rainfall, the significance of which is more than 90%. The rest of the districts in the north of the state too have experienced the rising trend in rainfall but the significance level varies from 80-90%. Even the desert districts of Barmer, Bikaner, Jaisalmer have experienced minor rise in rainfall during this season. 35. An analysis of the monsoon rainfall trends which contributes the maximum share of precipitation shows a rather different spatial scenario. The expanse of declining rainfall trends along the southern districts has enlarged in comparison to the pre monsoon season. The western districts of Bikaner and Jaisalmer too experienced similar decreasing rainfall trends. Only Alwar and Sikar observed significant rise in rainfall. The rest of the northern districts too experienced

9 IMD = Indian Meteorological Department, Ministry of Earth Sciences, Government of India. Meteorological Monograph No.

ESSO/IMD/EMRC/02/2013 ; http://www.imd.gov.in/section/climate/StateLevelClimateChangeMonoFinal.pdf 10 Trend detection in Temperature and Rainfall over Rajasthan during the Last Century, Abira Dutta Roy; Asian Journal of

Research in Social Sciences and Humanities, Feb 2015.

www.academia.edu/10594268/Trend_detection_in_Temperature_and_Rainfall_over_Rajasthan_during_the_Last_Century

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increase in rainfall. Insignificant rise is seen in Bikaner, Chittaurgarh, Pali, Kota and Rajsamand. Unlike the former two seasons the post monsoon months show a rising trend in rainfall in all the districts. Significant rising trends are observed in the districts of Barmer, Jalore, Sirohi and Jodhpur. 36. In conclusion, the high variability in onset of monsoon rains have resulted in rising rainfall trends in most of the districts in the non-monsoon period. Moreover the spatial analysis show the concentration of high and rising rainfall amounts in the eastern districts and acute scarcity of rains in the southern districts. 3.2.2 Trends in Extreme Events11 37. Trend analysis of the mean (monsoon season, non-monsoon season and annual) and extreme annual daily rainfall and temperature at the spatial and temporal scales was carried out for 33 urban centers of the arid and semi-arid state of Rajasthan, India. In the case of extreme events for annual daily rainfall both positive (southeastern) and negative (northeastern) trends were observed in some of the urban centers. Other urban centers did not show any significant trends in extreme annual daily rainfall. 38. A significant increasing trend in extreme annual daily maximum temperature (at 0.03 to 0.05 °C/year) was observed in the south (i.e., Banaswara, Baran, Bundi, Chittorgarh, Jhalawar, Pali and Sirohi), east (i.e., Churu and Jaipur) and west (i.e., Jaisalmer) urban centers of Rajasthan State. Significant increasing trends were observed in extreme annual daily minimum temperature (at 0.03 to 0.07 °C/year) for the urban centers located in the northeastern and western regions of Rajasthan State. However, significant trends were not found in the other urban centers of Rajasthan State. 3.3 Future Climate Projections 39. The two main climate parameters which can be derived from climate model scenario and their regional downscaling relate to temperature and precipitation. The Inter Governmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC, 2007) projected for hotter days and warm nights and a reduction in rainfall in Thar region of Rajasthan by 21st century. Such projected climate change implies shifts in rainfall pattern, higher temperatures, more demand for water. 40. An analysis12 for future rainfall and temperature for the Thar region in Rajasthan takes advantage of annual rainfall and temperature data from met stations at Bikaner, Jaisalmer, Jodhpur and Pali for the period 1971 to 2009. These data were analyzed for long-term changes to obtain projection in rainfall and temperature by 21st century by using simple regression analysis. The results showed an increase in temperature by +3.8OC at Bikaner, +3.6OC at Jaisalmer, +2.8OC at Jodhpur and +2.3OC at Pali by the end of 21st century. In terms of precipitation, though there was no significant trend, the annual rainfall is likely to increase by +40 mm at Bikaner, +119 mm at Jaisalmer, -13 mm at Jodhpur and +43 mm at Pali.

11 Climate Change and Its Impact on Thar Desert Ecosystem, A.S. Rao, et.al, Central Arid Zone Research Institute,

Jodhpur - 342003, Rajasthan, 2013. 12 Climate Change and Its Impact on Thar Desert Ecosystem, A.S. Rao, et.al, Central Arid Zone Research Institute,

Jodhpur - 342003, Rajasthan, 2012.

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41. An article in Climate Dynamics13 presents a study on the changes in rainfall, extreme indices and their future projections over Rajasthan State based on observed gridded datasets (1976–2005) and simulated climate models. The climate projections from two global circulation models (HadCM314 and GFCM2115) were used in statistical downscaling tool LARS-WG5 (Long Ashton Research Station-Weather Generator) to generate future precipitation. The changes in precipitation pattern are investigated for the baseline period and the future periods based on seven extreme precipitation indices. Three future periods are used for the analysis i.e., early century period 2011–2040 (2025s), a mid-century period of 2041–2070 (2055s) and a late-century period of 2071–2100 (2085s). 42. The above study observed that there is a possible decrease in monsoon precipitation at many grid points for all the three future periods. The maximum decrease in rainfall (−142 mm) is observed in Banswara for the period 2041–2070, while the maximum increase (37 mm) is found in Alwar along with Churu and Ganganagar during the period 2071–2100. Consecutive dry days (CDD) is predicted to increase in the west and south-west direction, while it shows decrease values in eastern and central part of Rajasthan with the maximum value in Ajmer district. The pattern revealed maximum negative change (− 90 mm) in southern parts, and maximum positive change in the northern regions (62.2 mm) in Churu. For Rx1day16, a maximum positive change is observed in eastern parts (Jhalawar, Sawai Madhopur) and negative changes in the southern part of the study area. 43. Note: Studies which spell out future climate scenarios for Rajasthan are scarce and even the ones that exist appear to project contradictory results, especially with respect to future rainfall. However, there is general consensus among them that Rajasthan will become increasingly warmer during the 21st century, although the projected magnitude of temperature increase differs from study to study mainly due to differences in projection method and assumed future GHG emission scenarios. 44. The global Climate Risk Index (CRI) developed by Germanwatch17 analyses quantified impacts of extreme weather events18 – both in terms of fatalities as well as economic losses that occurred based on data from the Munich Re NatCatSERVICE, which is recognized worldwide and maintains one of the most reliable and complete databases on this matter. In terms of CRI ranking, India was 14th amongst 181 countries in 2017, where in that year alone, there were 2,726 deaths in India that were directly related to extreme weather-related events such as heat waves, storms, floods and droughts and suffered an economic loss of about USD 13.8 billion.

13 Changes of Precipitation Regime and its Indices over Rajasthan State of India: Impact of Climate Change

Scenarios Experiments; SK Dubey, Devish Sharma, et al https://www.researchgate.net/publication/326043172_Changes_of_precipitation_regime_and_its_indices_over_Rajasthan_state_of_India_impact_of_climate_change_scenarios_experiments

14 HadCM3 (abbreviation for Hadley Centre Coupled Model, version 3) is a coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation model (AOGCM) developed at the Hadley Centre in the United Kingdom. It was one of the major models used in the IPCC Third Assessment Report in 2001.

15 GFCM21, a General Circulation Model (GCM) developed by Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory, USA 16 Rx1day = Monthly maximum 1-day precipitation 17 Briefing Paper, Global Climate Risk Index 2019; GermanWatch;

https://www.germanwatch.org/sites/germanwatch.org/files/Global%20Climate%20Risk%20Index%202019_2.pdf 18 Meteorological events such as tropical storms, winter storms, severe weather, hail, tornados, local storms;

hydrological events such as storm surges, river floods, flash floods, mass movement (landslide); climatological events such as freezing, wildfires, droughts. Geological incidents like earthquakes, volcanic eruptions or tsunamis, not included as they do not depend on the weather and therefore are not possibly related to climate change

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4. Climate Risk and Vulnerability Assessment 4.1 Hazard Characterization 45. There is no doubt that the road networks of Rajasthan have been continually exposed to climatic hazards ever since the start of their construction. In order to understand the general climate induced hazards and risks in the road project districts, advantage is taken in the use of a web-based on-line tool19 called ‘ThinkHazard!’. Developed for informational purposes by the Global Facility for Disaster Reduction and Recovery (GFDRR), this tool enables non-specialists to consider the impacts of disasters on new development projects as it quickly provides a general view of the hazards for a given location that could be considered in project design and implementation to promote disaster and climate resilience. 46. Specific to Rajasthan, the tool highlights the likelihood of different natural hazards such as river flood, urban flood, water scarcity, extreme heat, wild fire, earthquake, cyclone and coastal flood (with risk levels categorized as very low, low, medium and high), and provides guidance and recommendation on how to reduce the impact of these hazards. The hazard levels provided are based on published hazard data, provided by a range of private, academic and public organizations in India and elsewhere. 47. For the 11 Tranche-II project roads that are dispersed across 13 districts of Rajasthan, Table 4.1 shows the district-wise climate induced hazard levels as deduced by the web-based tool. By the information currently available with the web-tool, all 11 districts in where the project roads are located indicate ‘High Risk’ in terms of water scarcity, extreme heat and wild fire. The district of Sri Ganganagar is shown to be highly prone to river flooding whilst Hanumangarh exhibits high risks in terms of both river and urban flooding. By the model projection, droughts are expected to occur on average every five years, prolonged exposure to extreme heat resulting in heat stress is expected to occur at least once in every five years, and potentially damaging and life-threatening urban floods and river floods are expected to occur at least once in 10 years.

19 Think Hazard, World Bank Group; http://thinkhazard.org/en/;

For Rajasthan State, http:// http://thinkhazard.org/en/report/1506-india-rajasthan.

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4.2 Exposure and Sensitivity 48. Road transportation is a lifeline sector that supports essential functions of communities, commerce, and the government. Roads are directly exposed to forces of nature and as such climate and weather changes have important implications for the long-term safety and functionality of the road system. Road infrastructures are sensitive to increasing and critical risk from climate-driven stressors due to both ambient and periodic extremes in temperature, precipitation and their aftermath, such as consecutive days of extreme heat or heat waves and such as floods exceeding certain stages. From a practical perspective, knowing whether the location of the road presents a high level of risk to disruption due to future climate change is an important part of adaptation decision. 4.2.1 Exposure to Extreme Heat 49. By Table 4.1, extreme heat aggravates all 11 districts in where the Tranche-II project roads are located, and Rajasthan is no stranger to extraordinary spells of excessively hot weather called heat waves. The Indian Met Department (IMD) defines heat wave in that a heat wave become obvious when the daily maximum temperature of more than five consecutive days exceeds the average maximum temperature by 5 °C. Heat waves in Rajasthan occur sporadically in various regions thus impacting the structural integrity of the exposed road pavements. 50. The last heat wave event happened in 2016 during when the northwest India including Rajasthan got severely affected by it, and presented below is an all-time record account reproduced from an article in Climate and Development Knowledge Network and World Weather Attribution Initiative20 (Raising Risk Awareness): 51. On 19 May 2016, India experienced an all-time record high temperature for any calendar day. The high temperature reached 51°C in the city of Phalodi in the Jodhpur district of the state of Rajasthan. By some accounts it was the third-highest temperature ever documented globally. It was so hot that many residents of this city of about 50,000 simply remained indoors. Those who did venture outside in Gujarat’s Valsad found their sandals sticking to molten roads. 52. Temperatures were high across much of Rajasthan on that day, with a majority of stations recording maximum temperatures above 46°C. The state capital of Jaipur saw its hottest day in the past 11 years, with a maximum temperature of 46.5°C, while Delhi, India’s capital, reached 46.8°C. 4.2.2 Exposure to River Flooding 53. Though most parts of Rajasthan receive scanty rainfall, the State has a history of floods and inundations, mostly along the basins of Rivers Luni and Chambal. Figure 4.1 shows the flood prone areas of Rajasthan and those include major parts of the basins and sub basins of River Luni in the districts of Barmer, Pali, Sirohi and Jalore; and the basins and sub basins of River Chambal in Baran, Kota and Bundi districts. Also, major portions of Bharatpur districts falling under the basin of River Banganga, and the basins of River Ghaggar in Sriganganagar are prone to floods. The reasons for flooding in these regions include:

• excess rain in the catchment

20 Climate and Development Knowledge Network and World Weather Attribution Initiative Raising Risk Awareness;

https://cdkn.org/wp-content/uploads/2017/02/CDKN_RRA_India_Heatwave_WEB-final.pdf

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• sudden release of large quantities of water from dams / water reservoirs in upper catchments

• breach/ damage in major reservoirs / dams, and • limited natural capacity to convey excess water as a result of extreme precipitation

54. A scientific paper21 on flood havoc in Thar Desert notes that incessant rainfall is not very common in the arid desert, but whenever such events do occur the dry sand-bed streams swell sharply leading to floods. Over much of the desert, especially in the arid western part of Rajasthan, many paleochannels (river systems that were in place millions of years ago) lie either partly or fully buried under sand for long years due to aeolian sand invasion. Under high rainfall events those partially buried and obliterated courses become fully saturated and are the carriers of excess water leading to flooding. It has generally been observed that rainfall exceeding 100 mm per day poses a potential threat of flood. 55. Decade-wise flood frequency for the region has shown that broadly 3 out of 10 years are flood years. Low-lying sections of Tranche-II project roads in the districts of Jodhpur, Pali, Barmer, and Jalore are exposed to flooding instances from the numerous unseen paleochannels that overwhelm during intense precipitation. 4.2.3 Exposure to Urban Flooding 56. Rapid urbanization has led to an emerging concern of urban flooding in Rajasthan. In urban areas, flooding is reported to be primarily due to drainage failures and increased run-off loads on impervious surfaces. Filling up of natural drainage channels, urban lakes, and storm water drains have contributed towards urban flooding. Flooding due to intense rainfalls has caused extensive damage to property and life in urban centers of Jaipur, Tonk, Nagaur and Sawai Madhopur in the past. 57. Besides the floods in these natural drainage systems, there are other reasons for inundation. Changes in rainfall patterns have also increased the risk of flash floods in many areas that were not flood prone historically [21]. The recent floods in the State are a revelation and have made disaster managers and policy makers take a fresh view of the risks and vulnerability from floods. People living in the low-lying areas of the above-mentioned basins are the most vulnerable to floods. Figure 4.1 Flood Prone Areas of Rajasthan22 (Source: Disaster Management & Relief Department, Government of Rajasthan)

21 Flood Havoc in the Thar Desert, Is Nature to Blame; A,Kar, Central Arid Research Institute, Jodhpur,

2011. https://www.researchgate.net/publication/302902028_Flood_havoc_in_Thar_Desert_Is_Nature_to_blame 22 http://www.dmrelief.rajasthan.gov.in/documents/Floods.docx

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4.3 Vulnerability and Adaptive Responses 58. Table 1.2 earlier compiled some of the generic impacts by natural hazards / climatic stressors on road infrastructure. Although there will exist a wide range of primary climate drivers, only those climatic variables deemed principally important or relevant to the Tranche-II project roads such as extreme temperature and flooding are discussed here. These factors/events are expected to occur more often and their impacts will be more severe according to preceding discussions. 4.3.1 Temperature and Asphalt Pavement 59. Asphalt mixtures for road pavements consist of optimum combination of two basic ingredients, the aggregate (various fractions) and asphalt binder (bitumen), and other optional additives. Increasing temperature affects the behavior of bitumen-bonded materials from elastic to viscous state, and thus from a performance point of view, bitumen is one of the most important constituents of an asphalt mixture. Temperature variations within pavement structure contribute in many different ways to distress and the most common problem in the performance of bituminous asphalt roads in India is rutting and cracking during hot summer.

There are established provisions, performance indicators, and certain tests for bitumen characterization, ageing characteristics and rheological tests that are stipulated by the Bureau of Indian Standards (BIS). The standards are revised from time to time to keep pace with the changes in the technology and improvements in the construction procedures as well as quality control expectations. The recent BIS specification IS: 73-2006, prescribes viscosity based

grading system for paving bitumen to meet varying maximum temperature stresses as given in Table 4.2. 60. The Tranche-II project roads of Rajasthan are mainly located in the arid (Thar Desert) and semi-arid regions and are exposed to hot summer temperatures that hover between 400C to 45oC on average and occasionally to heat wave conditions. The Final Feasibility Reports (FFR) have recommended the grade of bitumen that best meets the severity of temperature as VG30 as opposed to the current grade in use by the Rajasthan PWD. 4.3.2 Precipitation / Flooding and Drainage Improvement 61. The Tranche-II project regions are said to receive low and variable rainfalls, yet flooding events are recorded in some of the districts. In terms of vulnerability of the project roads, climate change concerns are increasingly on the rise and the risks the hazards pose to road transport operations and the maintenance of those risks are greater than before. In Sec. 4.2(b), natural flooding has been described as a result of excess rainfall in the catchments and inadequate drainage to convey the flood effluents. Further there are certain stretches of road that run across obliterated paleochannels not noticeable to the naked eye, yet are a cause of concern due to water-logging impacts during monsoons.

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62. Road drainage is a necessary adaptation for the purpose of removing and controlling excess surface and sub-soil water within the right of way. It includes the interception and diversion of water from the road surface and sub-grade that forms the road foundation. Excess moisture in the sub-grade causes considerable lowering of the road foundation stability, erosion of soils from road shoulders and pavement edges and slope failure of road embankments. Water can enter the road pavement and become trapped between the layers of asphalt, causing the pavement to fail as a consequence of repeated hydraulic pressures caused by traffic loading and physically scouring the asphalt from the aggregate. Under moist conditions stripping of pavements undermines the integrity of surface materials and although limited to small patches will eventually lead to potholes. 63. The preliminary assessments presented in IEE and the FRRs of Tranche-II project roads observe the general inadequacy of road drainage systems, both longitudinal as well as cross-drainages and recommend strengthening drainage provisions for lasting benefits. Certain stretches of roads that are prone to water-logging from paleochannels are recommended to be improved in terms of vertical alignment by raising the embankment heights.

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5. Proposed Adaptation Actions and Costs 5.1 Proposed Adaptation Measures 64. As stated earlier and depending on future global warming and the region of Rajasthan in India, road transport and system components could be affected by one or several simultaneous changes in climate conditions, including hotter summers, extreme precipitation events and increased flooding. Two major types of climate related risks are those driven by long-term changes in temperature and precipitation. If such impacts are not considered in future transport infrastructure design and maintenance, those changing weather conditions could, in some regions of Rajasthan, accelerate their deterioration, increase severe damages risks, traffic interruption and accidents which could, on their turn, affect economic activities. 5.1.1 Short Term Measures: Short term climate change adaptation measures call for: (a) Preventive maintenance management where visible deteriorations of the project roads in the forms of asphalt pavement cracks, ruts, potholes and deformations and drainages are monitored regularly and remedied immediately before they have a serious impact on the integrity of the road. Assets such as pavements and storm drains have relatively short life-cycles compared to major drainage assets such as bridges and can be dealt proactively through routine maintenance practices. (b) Adaptive maintenance management responds to incremental adaptation actions and can be implemented over short timescales based on gradually increasingly reliable knowledge of climate change impacts. This takes care of climate change impacts iteratively and reduces the risk of committing to expensive investment at the beginning of the project cycle. 5.1.2 Long Term Measures: Climate change in the long run might produce new kinds of hazards and threats to the road system, and therefore tackling climate change impacts involves strengthening and or improving upon the already known deficiencies. To achieve long-term serviceability of the project roads it is necessary for the roads to be well constructed with good quality materials, and positioned on strong foundation so that deterioration does not result from inadequacies in construction and or deficiencies in the structural properties of materials. This is achieved by identification of peculiar problems with focus on drainage, earthworks, structures and vegetation management of the existing roads. The Tranche-II FFRs have taken into consideration the current deficiencies in terms of road geometries, road foundation integrity and other underprovided structures based on the survey of road assets carried out by the study team. Many of the actions that address current development problems can build resilience even if not specifically targeting climate change. 65. The Tranche-II project roads conform to design requirements set in IRC SP 73-2007, a manual of specifications and standards for two-laning of highways, and IRC: 37-2012, a pavement design manual, of the Indian Road Congress (IRC). The design requirements set out in these manuals are the minimum prescribed, and the concessionaire has the leeway to adopt best international practices, alternative specifications, materials and standards, and innovation in the design and construction of roads. The following are some of the envisaged adaptation considerations made in the FFRs with forethoughts on climate related risks driven by long-term changes in temperature and precipitation. (a) Adapt#1: Changes in rainfall patterns have increased the risk of floods in many areas that were not flood prone historically. The recent floods in the State are a revelation and have made

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disaster managers and policy makers take a fresh view of the risks and vulnerability of the State from floods, both riverine as well as urban. The initial assessments of the existing roads have noted the inadequacies of cross-drainages to deal with flood discharges along the road alignments. To tackle the issue of conveyance of flood effluents during times of intense precipitation, the FFRs have upgraded the existing dimensions of cross-drainages. For instance, pipe culverts and slab culverts are to be replaced by box culverts with higher discharge capacities. The technical details of each cross-drainage for each road are attached in Appendix 2. (b) Adapt#2: It was mentioned in Sec 4.2.2 earlier that there are certain stretches of roads running through the districts of Jodhpur, Pali, Barmer, and Jalore that suffer the consequences of flooding under high rainfall events. These stretches of road are said to run across partially or fully buried paleochannels that are not clearly visible to the naked eye and in these critical areas the vertical alignment of existing roads are proposed to be improved by raising the embankment heights over and above the set minimum standard of vertical allowance prescribed in IRC-SP 73-2007. A total length of 296.4 km out of a total project stretch of 754.5 km is estimated to be exposed to flooding and water-logging impacts under such influences and where embankment heights varying between 0.5m to 2m need to be raised. Refer Appendix 2 for technical details (c) Adapt#3: The initial assessments of the existing roads have noted inadequacies of side drains along many sections of the road alignments thus affecting effective removal of rainwater out of the road surface and its surroundings. In order for road structures to stay dry with good bearing capacity, a total of 44.5 km of side drainage systems have been proposed to be improved for the Tranche-II roads. The details are given in Appendix 2. (d) Adapt#4: In Sec. 5.1(a) earlier, it has been said that preventive maintenance could tackle short-cycle assets but unfortunately even the short lived road assets will likely face some extreme weather events within their life cycle. The FFRs have taken due note of this short-coming and particularly in a desert environment of Rajasthan where summer temperatures hover between 400C to 45oC on average with occasionally heat wave conditions, the grade of the asphalt binder material (bitumen) has been proposed to be improved. 66. By Table 4.2, VG40 is recommended for ambient temperatures > 450C and although a little costlier, the bitumen grade VG40 has higher kinematic viscosity, flash point and softening point and can tolerate significant traffic load and heat distresses as compared to other grades. 5.2 Costs of Incremental Adaptation Measures 67. Based on the findings and estimates prepared in the FFRs, the costs for the improvement of 11 Tranche-II project roads of Rajasthan are summarized in Table 5.1. The costs to climate change adaptations are based on the justifications made earlier above and pertain to meeting the perceived rigours of a changed future climate. 68. Figure 5.1 illustrates the costs of the 11 project roads in terms of business as usual (BAU) and climate change incremental costs (CC) scenarios. The BAU costs represent costs under current conduct of road improvement works without any considerations for potential negative impacts likely to be driven by circumstances and events under climate change. Although different approaches have been used to define the concept of incremental costs associated with projects to address climate change adaptation, the incremental cost here is meant as “the cost of capital of the incremental investment” expended in adaptation works in comparison to a BAU setting. The total civil cost indicated in Table 5.1 is the sum of BAU and CC increment, and includes cost of construction, materials, equipment and labour. The total project cost will exceed the total civil cost

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on account of other related expenses and unanticipated costs in the management of construction activities.

69. For the 11 Tranche-II roads, the CC incremental cost varies from road to road and, as expressed as % of total civil cost, the estimates reveal a lowest of 3% for Beawar-Pisangan-Tehla-Kot-Alniyawas road to a highest of 11.8% for Sadulshahar-Sangaria-Chainya road. On the average, the CC incremental cost is about 7.85% of the total civil cost. 70. The estimated total cost of civil works in the double-laning of 754.56 km of Tranche-II project roads is about INR 14,375.7 million, out of which INR 1,127.8 million is the total cost of climate change adaptation. In Figure 5.2, the CC incremental costs are sub-divided to illustrate the share of costs according to types of climate risk adaptations made in the FFRs. Figure 5.2 provides the break-up of CC adaptation costs for the total Tranche-II project roads. Both figures are self-explanatory.

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6. Conclusion 71. The cost of not taking climate change into consideration could be vast in terms of traffic disruption; public safety and infrastructure damage needing often too frequent repairs. Measures to adapt to climate change in the transport sector range from making adjustments to engineering specifications (design standard strategies) to alignment and master planning, and include environmental measures. In this CRVA, the adaptation options include those that have physical attributes in the engineering of road structures although there is growing appreciation of the value for ecosystem-based, institutional, and social measures, including the provision of climate-linked safety nets for those who are most vulnerable. The latter is addressed in the environmental and social reports pertaining to the Tranche-II project roads. 72. The double-laning of existing roads entails total renovation and width expansion of the existing single-lane roads with improvements in both horizontal and vertical geometries, and rebuilding of road formation. An approach to building resilience to climate change rests in understanding and addressing current weak spots under exposure to already known natural hazards that have plagued operation and maintenance of the existing system. The FFRs of the Tranche-II project roads have screened the state of condition of all existing road assets in terms of terrain, surfacing type and width, shoulder surfacing type & width, sub-grade, local soil type, curve details, retaining structures details, location of water bodies, height of embankment or depth of cut, cross drainage structures, and general drainage conditions, all of which are very important in achieving a most favorable design with climate change adaptations included. 73. In the case of Rajasthan, studies which spell out future climate scenarios for Rajasthan are scarce. Even the few ones that exist appear to project contradictory results, especially with respect to future rainfall. However, there is general consensus among them that Rajasthan will become increasingly warmer during the 21st century, although the projected magnitude of temperature increase differs from study to study mainly due to differences in projection method and assumed future GHG emission scenarios. 74. Because impacts of climate change are already being observed in India and elsewhere in the world and because impacts will increase even if greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions are reduced substantially in the near term, the State of Rajasthan must consistently maintain its vision and ability to adapt to impacts of climate change. The magnitude of risks from climate change impacts involves a great deal of uncertainty yet the high likelihood of some of the impacts possesses potential to be highly disruptive and that conveys that adaptive responses must be taken to reduce their effects. Not all adverse consequences of climate change on road infrastructures can be avoided through adaptation, but the Rajasthan PWD can significantly reduce the extent of damage through proactive actions to avoid, prepare for, and respond to climate change.

Appendix 1 25

APPENDIX 1: GLOSSARY OF TERMS AND TERMINOLOGIES

1. Climate vulnerability has been traditionally understood in terms of a relationship between exposure, sensitivity and adaptive capacity. In the following the various terms used in vulnerability assessments are defined as according to [22].

2. Concept of Risk23: In the context of natural hazards, "risk" not only represents the possibility that a hazard event could occur, but also its likelihood and consequences. There are many ways it can impact a community, from the destruction of property and infrastructure, through to injuries and casualties, to influencing economic activity. As can be visualized by Figure on the left, the intersection of hazard, exposure and vulnerability yields the risk (Reese and Schmidt, 2008) 3. Risk Mitigation: Risk mitigation refers to moderating the severity of a hazard impact and is the main objective of risk

management. It aims to reduce the physical and economic impacts of an event and limit the human, material, economic and environmental costs of an emergency or disaster. Therefore, it is necessary to have good information on the costs of natural disasters. These are estimated with a risk analysis. 4. Risk Analysis: Risk analyses have become almost a standard procedure in dealing with natural hazards. Understanding risk relates to the ability to define what could happen in the future, given a range of possible alternatives to choose from. To analyze the risk, vulnerability, exposure and coping capacity of a community, scientists use models and historic data to learn about possible hazard scenarios. The more is known about an area, the more reliable the results: therefore surveys of the local infrastructure and buildings, as well as monitoring the local weather conditions, are essential. For one single type of hazard, it is often possible to apply basic science from other hazards that have similar impacts. 5. Risk assessment: The purpose of risk evaluation is to make decisions, based on the results of the risk analysis, about which risks need treatment and where the priorities are. The outcome of the risk analysis is normally compared with risk criteria that were defined earlier in the process. These criteria define what risks are tolerable or acceptable, taking into account the community's social, cultural, environmental and economic situation. 6. Most components of risk including exposure and vulnerability can be analyzed quantitatively, semi-quantitatively or qualitatively. Each method has its advantages and disadvantages. Qualitative analyses require little data and relatively few resources; however, they are often very subjective, and are not suited for a subsequent cost-benefit analysis. Quantitative analyses need extensive input data and are very resource-intensive, but they have the advantage that the results are comparable across different hazards, much more detailed, standardized and objective. The selection of the appropriate method depends on the available resources, what level of detail is required and the data availability. It is important to understand that data input requirements, constraints and limitations influence the outputs and hence reliability and accuracy.

23 National Institute of Water and Atmospheric Research Ltd (NIWA), New Zealand; https://www.niwa.co.nz/natural-hazards/hazards/risk-and-vulnerability.

26 Appendix II

APPENDIX 2: TRANCHE II PROJECT COSTS OF CC ADAPTATION

File Links to: (1) Climate_Cost_Pkg-1 – Revised (2) Climate_Cost_Pkg-4 – Revised Note: Source of above Files: PWD, Rajasthan

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Appendix 2 27

https://www.researchgate.net/publication/302902028_Flood_havoc_in_Thar_Desert_Is_Nature_to_blame

22. http://www.dmrelief.rajasthan.gov.in/documents/Floods.docx 23. National Institute of Water and Atmospheric Research Ltd (NIWA), New Zealand;

https://www.niwa.co.nz/natural-hazards/hazards/risk-and-vulnerability