Climate Risk and Resilient City: Challenge and Awareness in China

PAN Jihua, ZHENG Yan, XIE Xinlu, ZHOU Yamin, WANG Jianwu, ZHU Shouxian, et al.

December 2nd 2011, Durban, South Africa

Institute of Urban & Environmental Studies (IUE), Chinese Academy of Social Sciences (CASS)

NSFC Project (No.70933005)

Contents

Climate risks and challenges for adaptation in China

Challenges for building resilient cities

Make city more resilient and low carbon: Integrate adaptation and mitigation into urban strategy

Climate Risks in China & Challenges for adaptation

Economic Losses of GDP in total Weather related disasters in China

(1990-2010)

Economic Losses of GDP in different weather disasters in

China (2003-2010)

Climate Vulnerability Mapping for China (2005-2010)

　 因子 Component

　

　 　指标 Indicators

Climate Sensitivity(0.36))

Population Vulnerability

(0.22)

Social Devt(0.18)

Environmental Disasters

(0.12)

Ecological Vulnerability

(0.12)

Climate Disasters losses in GDP(% ） (2006-2010) 0.722 0.103 0.284 -0.101 -0.129

Affected Population in Total (%) 0.924 0.087 -0.026 0.264 -0.058

Pysicians 0.623 0.547 0.086 -0.012 -0.204

GDP per capita 0.791 0.458 0.195 -0.1 -0.16

Climate Sensitivity Sectors in total （ %） 0.667 0.439 -0.041 -0.23 -0.149

Adaptation inputs （ %） 0.833 0.203 0.279 -0.256 0.081

Family burden 0.181 0.935 0.132 0.049 -0.06

Vulnerable population rate 0.472 0.801 0.267 -0.013 -0.029

Illiteracy （ %） 0.156 0.175 0.819 0.082 -0.032

Income Disparity 0.494 0.448 0.548 -0.072 -0.016

Life Expectation 0.602 0.276 0.641 -0.277 -0.077

Environmental disasters -0.113 0.04 0.076 0.89 0.106

Water resources pressure -0.191 0.006 -0.128 -0.026 0.929

Forest coverage (%)0.002 -0.32 0.484 0.142 0.647

Preliminary findings:

The top 3 most Vulnerable provinces were Gansu, Ningxia and Guizhou, which is consistent with the climate capacity discrepancy.

The West regions are more vulnerable than the coastal and East regions in China, since the former ones were more sensitive to climate hazards and socially vulnerable.

CHALLENGES: Geographical unbalance in

climate risks and vulnerability

Increasing wealth and more exposed physical capitals: esp in coastal developed areas

Aging society with more exposure population

Challenges for building resilient cities

Fast Urbanization in China since 1980s

Shanghai, Tianjin, Guangzhou, Ningbo, Hongkong, …ranking among top 20 coastal cities with high climate risk by 2050 (OECD,2008）

Vulnerable mega-cities in China

Vulnerability measurement for mega-

cities in China

Climate Vunerability Assessment in China's Mega-Cities(2010)

0

1

2

3

4

5

Climate Sensitivity

Population Vunerability

Social Development

Environmental Disasters

Ecological Vulerability

Comprehensive Vunerability

气候

脆弱

度(C

lima

te V

un

era

bili

ty I

nd

ex)

北京Beijing

上海Shanghai

天津Tianjin

重庆ChongqingHigh

Low

Midium

Chongqing ranked in the top one vulnerable city among the 4 municipalities, cause its more vulnerable population rate, higher climate sensitivity and environmental disasters.

Challenges for building resilient cities

Weakness & Strengths of China’s Mega-cities

Financial capacity Technical capacity Engineering infrastructures Institutional capacity Ecological health

Mainstreaming Adaptation and DRR into Urban planning

Challenges: More　aging　and　wealthier　cities　in　future

Disparity　　in　economic　and　social　vulnerability

Consolidating　Urbanization　with　large　poverty　population

Make city more resilient and low carbon

46.6%6.22亿人

URBANIZATION IN CHINA12th FYP: 47.5%51.5% ， annual avg rate 0.8%= 12 million

urban population

1790-2050 USA urbanization

1920-1960年年均提高 0.47个百分点

China facing more challenges than that of developed countries

Make city more resilient and low carbon: Integrate adaptation and mitigation into city strategy

Adaptation Reduce the vulnerability: lifeline of city Low carbon adaptation: urban green lands, green power,

environmental infrastructures, etc. Synergy between mitigation and adaptation

Planning • Urban planning: transport, residential settlement• Industry planning: resources dependant sectors• Spatial planning: population and land using

Technology • Green building, smart grid, etc • Adaptive technologies

Management and governance

Thanks for comments~

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