Climate Review 2014-15 and NIDIS Update
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Transcript of Climate Review 2014-15 and NIDIS Update
Climate Review 2014-15 and NIDIS Update
Kelly T. Redmond
Regional Climatologist
Western Regional Climate Center
Desert Research Institute
Reno Nevada
U.S. Drought Monitor Forum
Northern Nevada Science Center
Desert Research Institute
14-16 April 2015
Note:
These presentations are typically posted online after the meeting.
Thus, some slides intended for more detailed inspection may be skipped
or glossed over.
During the last year .....
Borrowing the phraseology of Steven Johnson,
Percent of Average Precipitation
Apr 2014 May 2014 Jun 2014 Jul 2014
Aug 2014 Sep 2014 Oct 2014 Nov 2014
Dec 2014 Jan 2015 Feb 2015 Mar 2015
Mean Temperature Departure from Normal
Apr 2014 May 2014 Jun 2014 Jul 2014
Aug 2014 Sep 2014 Oct 2014 Nov 2014
Dec 2014 Jan 2015 Feb 2015 Mar 2015
Looking backward through the rear view mirror: Precipitation and Temperature ending 10 April 2015.
Percent of Average Precipitation Temperature Departure from Average
April to date Calendar Year to date April to date Calendar Year to date
Water Year to date Past 365 days Water Year to date
Past 730 days Past 1095 days
Precipitation Percentiles for Past 3, 4, 5, 6 Years, through March 2015.
36 months - 3 years 48 months - 4 years
60 months - 5 years 72 months - 6 years
Water Year2010-1101 Oct 2010Thru30 Sep 2011
Water Year2011-1201 Oct 2011Thru30 Sep 2012
Water Year2012-1301 Oct 2012Thru30 Sep 2013
Water Year2013-1401 Oct 2013Thru30 Sep 2014
Water YearTo Date2014-1501 Oct 2014Thru11 April 2015
Oct 1 - Apr 11 Water Year to Date 2014-2015 Oct 1 - Apr 11
Precipitation Percent Temperature Departure (F)
Sep 28, 1999 Sep 26, 2000 Sep 25, 2001
Sep 24, 2002 Sep 30, 2003 Sep 21, 2004
Sep 27, 2005 Sep 26, 2006 Sep 25, 2007
Sep 30, 2008 Sep 29, 2009 Sep 28, 2010
Sep 28, 2010 Sep 27, 2011 Sep 26, 2012
Sep 24, 2013 Sep 30, 2014 Apr 7, 2015
Nevada StatewideTemperature
AnnualCalendar Year
1895-2014
Nevada Climate Tracker
Nevada StatewideTemperature
Water Yearto Date
Oct-Mar
1895-96 thru
2014-15
Nevada StatewidePrecipitation
Water YearOct-Sep
1895-96thru
2013-14
NevadaClimate Tracker
NevadaPrecipitation
Snow Season
Oct-Mar
1895-96thru
2014-15
NevadaClimate Tracker
Sierra NevadaPrecipitation
Water Year
Oct-Sep
1895-96thru
2013-14
CaliforniaClimate Tracker
Sierra NevadaPrecipitation
Snow Season
Oct-Mar
1895-96thru
2014-15
CaliforniaClimate Tracker
Oct-MarPrecipitation
Rank
1895-96Thru
2014-15
Lowest 10 %
RecordDriest
8-Station IndexPrecipitation
Wettest (1982-83)
2010-11
2012-132011-12
2014-152013-14
Two driest years,( 1976-77, 1923-24 )
CA - DWR
5-Station IndexPrecipitation
Wettest (1982-83)
2010-11
2012-132011-12
2013-142014-15
Two driest years,( 1976-77, 1923-24 )
CA - DWR
6-Station IndexPrecipitation
Wettest (1968-69)
2012-132013-142014-15
Driest year( 1976-77 )
CA - DWR
Winter SeasonSnow Water
Content
1982-83 wettest
Average
2013-14
2014-15
1976-77 driest
Cal DWR
NorthernSierra
Central Sierra
SouthernSierra
Snow Depth. Central Sierra Snow Lab. Donner Summit. Low Snow Winters.Thru Feb 23. Courtesy Randall Osterhuber.
100
80
60
40
20
0
inches cm
15-Year Mean Sierra Snow Water Equivalent 2015 March 29
Noah Molotch - NASA/JPL
2015 March 29 Sierra Snow Water Equivalent 2014 March 23
Noah Molotch - NASA/JPL
Snotel Basin-Average
Water Year Precipitation
2014 Oct 1 thru 2015 Apr 12
SnotelBasin-Averaged
Snow Water Equivalent
2015 April 12
The Great Snow Drought of 2014-15Precipitation Snowpack
Western USTemperaturePercentiles
Water Year To Date
Oct 2014 thru
Mar 2015
Reference Period
120 Years1895-2015
WestWideDroughtTracker
UpdatedMonthly
WRCC
Tmax
Tmin
Tave
Oct-March Temperature.11 western contiguous states.From Westmap (PRISM values).1895-96 thru 2014-15.
1900 2010
1900
1900 2010
2010
Select: Lamoille area, Monthly values, Temperature 0 C, 9-year running mean.
Western Regional Climate Center
Oct-Mar Freezing Level Near Ruby Mountains, Nevada. 1948-49 thru 2014-15
Oct-Mar Freezing Level Over Lake Tahoe. 1948-49 thru 2014-15
South Lake TahoeKelly Redmond 20150216
Mono Lake and Yosemite, SWE ~18 %Kelly Redmond 20150216
Death Valley and Telescope Peak. Kelly Redmond 20150220
Telescope Peak, Badwater, Death Valley. Kelly Redmond 20150317
Mt Charleston. Kelly Redmond 20150315
Wheeler PeakKelly Redmond 20150216
Boise looking NKelly Redmond 20150216
Lake Powell Storage Through April 10, 2015
Currently 45 % full (capacity 24.17 MAF)
Minimum: 33 % full on April 8, 2005
Lake Powell Elevation Through April 10, 2015
Water level on April 10, 2015 was 3590.95 ft, -109 ft below full. Minimum level on April 8, 2005 was 3555 ft, -145 ft below full.Source: www.usbr.gov/uc/water/index.htl
From: Colorado Basin River Forecast Center
2015 April 1
Apr-Jul FlowForecast:March 1:
71 % of medianApril 1:
52 % of median
Higher flows Jan-Mar on
many streams,with early meltout.
3 of 15 past years above
averageinflow.
Marina, Overton, Lake Mead.Kelly Redmond 20150220
Lake Mead. Kelly Redmond 20150220
Lake Mead. Kelly Redmond 20150220
Lake Mead. Kelly Redmond 20150220
Kelly Redmond 20150329
Kelly Redmond 20150329
Kelly Redmond 20150220
Outlet of Lake Tahoe. Oct 2011 thru Mar 2015. Courtesy Chris Smallcomb, Reno NWS.
Oct11 Oct12 Oct13 Oct14 Mar15
Sierra Nevada 4 Winters Oct 2011 - Mar 2015 Cumulative Precipitation Deficits
North: 8-station index 22 % deficit (1 yr)
Central: 5-station index 45 % deficit (2 yrs)
South: 6-station index 45 % deficit (2 yrs)
NWS Sacramento
The Missing Years:Precipitation Deficits Over the Past Four Winters
Expressed in Units of Average Annual Precipitation.Based on PRISM. Courtesy Paul Iniguez, NWS Phoenix.
Number of years
Excess
Deficit
+2
+1
0
-1
-2
Elevation of Lake Tahoe at Tahoe City 2011 Oct 01 - 7 April 2015
Natural Rim
March 25, 2015
RAWSSnotel
WeatherCoder III
How to ImproveGreat Basin
Climate Monitoring? ? ?
NIDIS Update (with a lotta help from Veva Deheza)
Veva Deheza
Deputy Director NOAA / NIDIS
National Integrated Drought Information System
NOAA Earth System Research Laboratory
Photo: Cimarron County (Oklahoma) Conservation District, January 2014
69
National Integrated Drought Information System
Public Law 109-430 (The NIDIS Act 2006)
““Enable the Nation to move from a reactive to Enable the Nation to move from a reactive to a more proactive approach to managing a more proactive approach to managing drought risks and impactsdrought risks and impacts””
(www.drought.gov)(www.drought.gov)
“No systematic collection and analysis of social, environmental, and economic data focused on the impacts of drought within
the United States exists today” Western Governors Association 2004
“better informed and more t imely drought-related decisions leading to reduced impacts and costs”
Three tasks under the NIDIS Act (PL 109-430)
(I) Provide an effective drought early warning system: (a) collect and integrate key indicators of drought severity and impacts; (b) produce timely information that reflect local, regional, and state differences
(II) Coordinate and integrate as practicable, federal research in support of a drought early warning system
(III) Build upon existing forecasting and assessment programs and partnerships
70
“Today, I signed the National Integrated Drought Information System Reauthorization Act into law. To complement the National Integrated Drought Information System, as part of my Climate Action Plan, federal agencies have also formed a National Drought Resilience Partnership to help communities better prepare for droughts in the long term, and prevent the worst impacts on families and businesses” March 6, 2014. President Obama
H.R. 2431, the "National Integrated Drought Information System Reauthorization Act of 2014,” authorizes appropriations for NIDIS through FY 2018 and requires NOAA to report to Congress on the implementation of the NIDIS
NIDIS reauthorized by Congress in 2014
National Integrated Drought Information System (NIDIS)Enable the Nation to move from a reactive to a more proactive Enable the Nation to move from a reactive to a more proactive
approach to managing drought risks and impacts (NIDIS Act 2006)approach to managing drought risks and impacts (NIDIS Act 2006)
drought.gov
NIDIS Partnerships (Federal, States, Tribes, Private)
Monitoring & ForecastingDrought Impacts
Assessments and Scenarios
Communication and Outreach Engaging Preparedness & Adaptation
Drought Early Warning
Information
Systems
74
Drought-based Partnerships and AgreementsHigh-level, formal partnerships
• Commerce and USDA• Sharing of data and information
• Commerce and Western Governors’ Association
• Collaboration on service information needs for climate variability and change
• Commerce and Interior• Coordinate climate-related activities
• Emergency drought relief bill (for California)
• Western Governors’ Association
• Water resources in the West
Also, significant Congressional interest in NIDIS activities
76
Memorandum of Understanding Between the Western Governors' Association
and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
Collaboration on Drought, Flooding, and Wildfire Preparedness: Sharing Information and Building Resilience in Planning for Extreme Events
June 9, 2014
Colorado Springs, Colorado
Objectives and Actions The Parties will investigate the interrelationship between drought and wildfire to identify the data, information, and analysis needs – as well as management strategies – that may help Governors and decision-makers better address the impacts associated with these dual disasters. The Parties will explore ways to ensure that collection and sharing of crucial drought, flooding, and extreme weather-related data, impact statistics, and information are improved and sustained. Focal areas may include soil moisture monitoring in the Missouri River Basin and water supply needs assessments, including snowpack monitoring, in the Mountain West and coastal watersheds. This aspect of the MOU calls for close coordination with other federal agencies that have monitoring and analysis responsibilities.
The Parties will conduct a survey of the existing state and territory Drought Task Forces appointed by Governors to (a) identify data gaps as well as potentially useful data, information, and analyses and (b) compare and contrast the approaches of the Task Forces in order to help states and territories learn from one another and better communicate across state boundaries and enhance implementation of drought plans.
Regional Drought Early Warning Systems
California NIDIS Pilot Projects
Southern California Urban Area - Heavily Managed SystemAnne Steinemann, Julie Kalansky
Central Valley - Land FallowingJim Verdin, Forrest Melton
Russian River - Coastal Rain-dominated SystemAlan and Lorrie Flint, Julie Kalansky
Klamath River - Interstate, almost all western water issuesKelly Redmond, Dave Simeral, Mark Deutschmann
Fallowed Area Mapping for
Drought Impact Reporting and Decision Making2014 August 272011 August 27
Idling of land results in detectable change in seasonal NDVI profiles
Mapping of Fallowed Area
2014 California Drought
• 2013 driest calendar year on record
• 2014 was 4th driest Water Year on record
• In 2014, many growers had surface water allocations <10% of full allocation
• 2014 fallow up 40% (500,000 acres) compared to 2011
• 2015 not much better
• Precip is 86% of avg for CY, but only 46% of avg for WY
• Snowpack just 21% of normal
• Reservoirs at 67% of avg statewide
Groundwater changeSpring 2010 to Spring 2014
Regional Drought Early Warning Systems
Working with communities and existing networks through:
Drought assessmentsClimate outlook forumsEducation and outreach webinars – risk managementEngaging the preparedness community
Drought Prediction• Improved prediction capabilities drawing on expertise at
national laboratories and centers and key academic partners• Improved satellite estimates of snow amount for
initialization (e.g., SWE)• Improved satellite estimates of soil moisture for initialization
(expect that from SMAP)• Improved predictions of temperature, precipitation, and
other hydroclimate variables as well as extremes• Increased climate model ensemble size and higher
resolution for better estimates of extremes (changes in the tails of the PDF)
• Understand the role of extreme weather events (drought busters; persistence of large scale circulation patterns) and climate variability
83
Forecasting Drought
• Improve reliability and skill of forecasts including characterization uncertainty and opportunities for conditional skill (conditioned on interannual and decadal variability)
• Improve forecasts of onset and termination (dominant sources of skill and reliability from persistence of conditions and knowledge of antecedent conditions – thus the critical role for monitoring)
• Objective and reproducible NOAA Drought Outlook (National MultiModel Ensemble, NMME)
• Improved identification and use of analog year information
• Advances in Land-Data Assimilation Systems (LDAS)
• Enhanced ENSO Plume Model Forecasts
• Updated Optimal Climate Normals (Temperature & Precipitation)
• Experimental Climate Divisions and Regional Forecasts
84
Ocean Departures from Average Temperature ( C ) 29 Mar - 4 Apr 2015
Recent Evolution of Equatorial Pacific SST Departures
Updated through 2014 Mar 29 - Apr 4
Climate Prediction Center
Washington
Arizona
Central Sierra
Redmond & Koch, 1991, updated. ENSOENSO
Redmond & Koch, 1991, updated.
Temperature & PrecipitationOfficial Outlooks
One Month 2015 Three Month
Apr Temp Apr Precip Apr-May-Jun T Apr-May-Jun P
Orange / Red - Higher likelihood of drier than usualGreen - Higher likelihood of wetter than usual
NOAA Climate Prediction Center
Seven experiments in near-term climate forecasting May-Jul 2015. Precipitation.NMME (National Multi-Model Ensemble). IMME (International Multi-Model Ensemble).
DynamicalModels
CFSv2: US Climate Forecasting System version 2CMC1: Canadian Meteorological Center version 1CMC2: Canadian Meteorological Center version 2GFDL: US Geophysical Fluid Dynamics LaboratoryNCAR: US National Center for Atmospheric ResearchNASA: US National Aeronautics and Space AdministrationNMME: National Multi-Model EnsembleIMME: International Multi-Model Ensemble
2015 Apr 7
Six experiments in near-term climate forecasting May-Jul 2015. Temperature.NMME (National Multi-Model Ensemble). IMME (International Multi-Model Ensemble).
DynamicalModels
CFSv2: US Climate Forecasting System version 2CMC1: Canadian Meteorological Center version 1CMC2: Canadian Meteorological Center version 2GFDL: US Geophysical Fluid Dynamics LaboratoryNCAR: US National Center for Atmospheric ResearchNASA: US National Aeronautics and Space AdministrationNMME: National Multi-Model EnsembleIMME: International Multi-Model Ensemble
2015 Apr 7
The First Three Winters of Drought
Likely a 2014-2015 Addendum
Each winter played out differently
Background and thus causes somewhat different each winter
2014-15 cause also likely not identical to previous three winters
Explanations reach to western Pacific and eastern Indian Oceans
Not much sign of climate change as a contributor
But, possible harbinger of future droughts:
Not just dry, but extremely warm
The Cycle of Disaster Management
Components of Successful Drought Mitigation Planning
• Monitoring, early warning, and prediction Foundation of a drought mitigation plan Indices/indicators linked to impacts and triggers
• Risk and impact assessment Who and what is at risk and why?
• Mitigation and response Pro-active programs and actions to reduce risks Response actions and programs during droughts
Example: Colorado’s Drought Response Plan consists of four components:MonitoringAssessmentMitigationResponse
The plan has the force and
effect of law as promulgated
by the Governor.
• Streamlined by utilizing the US Drought Monitor as a tool to automatically trigger disaster areas
• Provides for nearly an automatic designation for any county in which drought conditions as rptd in the USDM meet a drought intensity of D2 (severe) for 8 consecutive weeks
• A county with a portion of area in a D3 (extreme) or higher at any time during growing season would be designated as disaster area
As of 2012 – Role of U.S. Drought Monitor in USDA Designation Procedure
March 25, 2015
99
NDRP Goals
The National Drought Resilience Partnership (NDRP) is dedicated to helping communities better prepare for future droughts and to reducing the impact of drought events on livelihoods and the economy. Through coordinated action, federal agencies provide efficient, effective service to communities.
NDRP’s goal is to make it easier to access Federal drought resources by linking information such as monitoring, forecasts, outlooks, and early warnings with longer-term drought resilience strategies in critical sectors such as agriculture, municipal water systems, energy, recreation, tourism and manufacturing.
100
James VerdinU.S. Geological Survey at NOAA Physical Sciences Division, Boulder
With grateful acknowledgment of:
Roger S. Pulwarty1, NIDIS Director Veva Deheza3, Kathy Bogan3, Lisa Darby2, Chad McNutt1, Claudia Nierenberg1, Kelly Redmond4, Robert Webb2, and many others…
1NOAA/Climate Program Office2NOAA/ESRL/Physical Sciences Division3CIRES4Desert Research Institute
An Overview of the National Integrated Drought Information System (NIDIS)
Developing a Coordinated National Soil Moisture Network:
An Update
Jim Verdin, NIDIS/USGS
January 27, 2015
Developing a Coordinated National Soil Moisture Network
A National Workshop Organized by NIDIS•Kansas City, Missouri - November 13-14, 2013
A gathering of over sixty experts from across the country•Federal, State, and University representatives
Recommendations•Form an Expert Working Group to articulate a Plan of Action•Develop a sub-national pilot system•Develop a nationwide “best available” product by blending data from disparate sources
An Expert Group reviewed and decided to adopt the successful approach taken for developing a plan of action for the National Ground Water Monitoring Network
USDA - Mike StobelNOAA - Bruce Baker
- Brian Cosgrove- Tilden Meyers
USGS - Jessica LucidoTAMU - Steve QuiringNASA - Vanessa Escobar
• System Planning - December 2014
• Start Pilot Development - January 2015
• Submit Midway Progress Report - April 1, 2015
• Development Completed- July 1, 2015
• Demo Pilot - July/August 2015
• Final Project Report - August 31, 2015
Timeline for Soil Moisture Network Pilot Activities
Launched January 31, 2015.Most spin-up operations completed.
For more details about recent NIDIS activities, download newsletter
from drought.gov
Thank You !
Mather RAWS StationGreat Basin Nat Park
DISCARDSand
EXTRASand
ELABORATIONS
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
United States Annual Temperature Departure from 1950-1995 Mean
NOAA Divisional Data, Western Regional Climate Center, Plotted by ESRL PSD
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
United States Annual Temperature Departure from 1950-1995 Mean
NOAA Divisional Data, Western Regional Climate Center, Plotted by ESRL PSD
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Jan-Mar
February
Precipitation
Percent of
Average
2014
West WideDroughtTracker
MonsoonSeason
Precipitation Jun-Sep
Percent of
Average
2013
West WideDroughtTracker
Nevada StatewidePrecipitation
Water Yearto DateOct-Feb
1895-96thru
2013-14
NevadaClimate Tracker
Sierra NevadaPrecipitation
Calendar Yearto DateJan-Dec
1895thru2014
CaliforniaClimate Tracker
Death Valley. Patrick Redmond. 2015 March 23-29.
Death Valley. Patrick Redmond. 2015 March 23-29.
Death Valley. Patrick Redmond. 2015 March 23-29.
Death Valley. Patrick Redmond. 2015 March 23-29.
Death Valley. Patrick Redmond. 2015 March 23-29.
Mt Charleston “Snowpack”Kelly Redmond 20150216
Lake Mead. Kelly Redmond 20150220
Kelly Redmond 20150329
White Mtn Summit & High SierraKelly Redmond 20150216
20140920 Kelly Redmond
Snotel Basin-Average
Water Year Precipitation
2014 Oct 1 thru 2015 Mar 7
SnotelBasin-Averaged
Snow Water Equivalent
2015 March 7
Nevada StatewidePrecipitation
SummerJun-Aug
1895thru2014
NevadaClimate Tracker
MonsoonSeason
Precipitation Jun-Sep
Percent of
Average
2014
West WideDroughtTracker