Climate Resilience in Fragile and Conflict-Affected Societies

Workshop on Climate Sceince Needed to Support Robust Adaptation DecisionsGeorgia Tech, Atlanta, 6th February 2014

Janani VivekanandaManager, Environment, Climate Change and Security Programme

International Alert

1. Understanding the Linkages between Climate Change and Security

2. Approaches to the addressing links between climate, resilience and peace

3. Conclusion and Discussion

Elements of Vulnerability

Adapted from IPCC 2007

Vulnerability

SensitivityAvailability and importance of the affected resource

ExposureRate and variation of climate change

Adaptive CapacityGeneric Impact specific

Depend on climate change impacts and environment

Depends on governance and stability

Adaptation and Resilience

Adaptation to climate change

•“Adjustment in natural or human systems in response to actual or

expected climatic stimuli or their effects which moderates harm or

exploits beneficial opportunities” (IPCC 2007:896)

•focuses on managing impacts of specific climate effects

Resilience

•“Ability of countries, communities, and households to anticipate, adapt

to, and/or recover from the effects of potentially hazardous occurrences

(climate change, natural disasters, economic instability, conflict) in a

manner that protects livelihoods, accelerates and sustains recovery, and

supports economic and social development” (IAWG-R, 2013)

Resilience

Adaptation

Wars in the 21st century

That was the good news

• Decline in annual incidence of armed conflict has ended – not clear if it has reversed:

30 in 2010 --- 37 in 2011 --- 32 in 2012

• In many conflicts, violence has only been suppressedRisk of recidivism

• Peace processes usually need international supportMay get harder to initiate and sustain

• And there are other dimensions of violence

Pressures - population trends

Peace

Climate and Environmental Change Vulnerability

Resilience

Fragility

Stability

Human Insecurity*

decrease increases

Human Security

Positive And Negative Cycle 5/16

Violent Conflict

* Human security = “freedom from the risk of loss or damage to a thing that is important to survival and well-being” (Barnett et al 2010. p4)

International Alert‘s Rationale Behind Working on Climate Change

• If climate change is a ‘risk multiplier’ which interacts with pre-

existing social, economic and political risks, making peace and

stability harder to achieve,

• then addressing the pre-existing root causes of vulnerability will

help build resilience to climate change and contribute to stability

Local Perspectives and Narratives – understanding complexity

N. Shresta/International Alert

Local Perspectives and Narratives - maladaptation

N. Shresta/International Alert

N. Shresta/International Alert

1. Understanding the Linkages between Climate Change and Security

2. Approaches to the addressing links between climate, resilience and peace

3. Conclusion and Discussion

Approaches to the climate-resilience-peace nexus 11/16

•Focus on Resilience

•Rethinking development

•Getting the institutions right

•Face the challenges of migration

•Peace positive low-carbon economy

Example of silo-ed aid approaches

Question 1: The call states that “while insecurity and violence affect

many cities in [Latin America], reducing exposure to those hazards is

outside the scope of this [call]. Activities that respond to those affected

by complex emergencies will not be considered under this [call]”? Given

the post-conflict context of the region, would it be acceptable to

propose an approach that will ensure that interventions will “do no

harm” in the given urban setting, and build resilience holistically to

all hazards in those contexts, including (but not exclusively) violence

and insecurity?

 

Response to Question 1:

[The donor] intends that projects funded focus on reducing the risks

associated with natural hazards, rather than human-made threats.

Proposed activities must clearly reflect this emphasis.

1. Understanding the Linkages between Climate Change and Security

2. Approaches to the addressing links between climate, resilience and peace

3. Conclusion and Discussion

Peace

Climate and Environmental Change Vulnerability

Resilience

Fragility

Stability

Human Insecurity

decreases

increases

Human Security

Positive And Negative Cycle

Violent Conflict

Research, Policy and Practice•Understanding Complexity•Adjusting Funding•Changing Institutions

Climate Change Funding

Conclusions

1. Focus of qualitative literature = identifying correlations and arguing

causality does not help determine how to promote resilience in FCAS. Need

more multivariate analyses to address multivariate, complex risks.

2. Most models are at a resolution which offer limited value to

development programmers at national and subnational level.

3. Research required for policy and programming requires a nuanced

understanding power, politics and political economy of context.

4. In FCAS, we need to understand links between fragility, vulnerability, and

security in order to build resilient communities to cope with variability.

5. Implementation will still be a challenge, but better understanding of

complexity will at least put policy and practice on the right track.

Thank You for Your Attention

Janani VivekanandaManager – Climate Change and SecurityInternational Alert, Londonjvivekananda@international-alert.org+44 207 627 6823www.international-alert.org